Army football's still well behind Navy and Air Force. How much longer?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Improvement, sort of

Over the last 34 years, Air Force has attended 21 bowls. Since Troy Calhoun took over in 2007, the Falcons have won 65 games and attended seven bowls.

Since hiring Paul Johnson, Navy has attended 12 bowls and won at least eight games 12 times.

Army has ... played those teams each year.

You can carve out a niche and win some games as an FBS-level service academy. We know this because we've seen it. But we haven't seen it much from what we now call Army West Point (with a new logo and new uniforms).

Since the Cadets went 10-2 and finished ranked 25th in the AP poll in 1996, they have been to one bowl and finished with a winning record just once: in 2010, when they went 7-6 and knocked off SMU in the Armed Forces Bowl. The 13 years before then: 35-115. The four years since then: 12-36.

In 2014, Jeff Monken left a stable job at Georgia Southern to try to win at Army.

It takes a certain personality to be drawn to a job like Army; Monken apparently has that personality. After his hire, he told the Times Herald-Record, "There's something absolutely different about an academy. It's a responsibility that goes far beyond the football field and it's an opportunity to be part of something way, way bigger than me or any one player on our team. I just felt like it was a chance of lifetime."

Monken's enthusiasm won athletic director Boo Corrigan over almost immediately, but his ability to modernize, however possible, will be the key to staying in the job more than three to five years. Army will run the option, but Georgia Southern was able to pass a bit from time to time (not so much in 2013).

It was an honorable move, but recent history suggests his odds of succeeding are low. Of course, they were low for Georgia Southern coach Paul Johnson when he moved from Statesboro to Annapolis. The right coach and the right level of organization can make you successful anywhere. (Spending helps, too. Army doesn't do as much of that as its rivals in Annapolis and Colorado Springs.)

Monken's first year at West Point was hit-and-miss. The win total increased, from three to four, and included home wins over three teams (Buffalo, Ball State, UConn) that have been bowling recently. The high points were pretty high.

The low points were also ridiculously low. Army lost to Yale in overtime and lost five games by at least 17 each, and the duds were bad enough to drag the Cadets' F/+ rating 12 spots lower in 2014 (121st) than 2013 (109th). The offense had its moments despite ridiculous shuffling on the offensive line, but the defense, always an issue, was still helpless.

I really liked the Monken hire, and I like the eastern flavor of Army's scheduling -- the 2014 slate featured Buffalo, Yale, UConn, Fordham, and (of course) Navy, and 2015 trades Buffalo and Yale for Penn State, Bucknell, and Rutgers. Regional matchups are fun as long as you're semi-competitive. We'll see.

Last year wasn't particularly encouraging, but as long as we're continuing the Johnson comparisons (which I'm sure Cadet fans love), it bears mentioning Navy went 2-10 in Johnson's first year. And hey, Navy allowed even more points per game that year (36.3) than Army did last year (32.9). Hope!

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 1-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 121
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
6-Sep	Buffalo	114	47-39	W	64%	8.4	95%
13-Sep	at Stanford	18	0-35	L	1%	-54.0	0%
20-Sep	at Wake Forest	101	21-24	L	17%	-22.4	47%
27-Sep	at Yale	NR	43-49	L	5%	-37.5	33%
4-Oct	Ball State	91	33-24	W	47%	-1.5	80%
11-Oct	Rice	86	21-41	L	5%	-38.9	0%
18-Oct	at Kent State	107	17-39	L	3%	-44.2	1%
1-Nov	Air Force	48	6-23	L	7%	-34.5	0%
8-Nov	vs. Connecticut	119	35-21	W	34%	-9.3	84%
15-Nov	at Western Kentucky	50	24-52	L	5%	-38.3	0%
22-Nov	Fordham	NR	42-31	W	44%	-3.5	99%
13-Dec	vs. Navy	44	10-17	L	6%	-36.4	0%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	21.1	112	40.9	127
Points Per Game	24.9	93	32.9	104

2. Worst road team conceivable

Granted, Army's three FBS wins last year came against teams ranked 91st, 114th, and 119th in F/+, and for whatever it's worth, FCS victim Fordham was 109th in the Sagarin ratings. At home (or, in the case of the UConn game, at Yankee Stadium), any self-respecting FBS program should hope to win these games. Still, the Cadets looked legitimate, producing an average percentile performance of 47 percent, which equates to a top-70 level of play.

The problem was that, from a percentile standpoint, the Cadets didn't top 17 percent in any of the other eight games. At home or on a neutral field, Army had at least a chance of playing well. On the road, there was no hope.

• Average Percentile Performance (home and neutral): 30% (average score: Opp 28, Army 28)
• Average Percentile Performance (road): 5% (average score: Opp 40, Army 21)

A common truism among coaches is that good defense travels, meaning a sound defensive team is more likely to play well on the road. I have no idea whether a significant statistical study would prove that, but Army tried its damnedest. The second-worst defensive team in FBS according to Def. S&P+ was also the worst road team. Army tried to get aggressive, especially against the run, but the Cadets didn't have the manpower, allowing at least 5.9 yards per play in nine of 12 games and at least 6.5 in seven.

Is there hope for the defense? There's always potential for second-year improvement simply through greater familiarity. But the Cadets will be without last year's top three linemen and three other starters.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.83	78	IsoPPP+	99.5	68
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.7%	40	Succ. Rt. +	104.1	57
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.4	94	Def. FP+	98.0	92
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	70	Redzone S&P+	111.6	37
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	11.3		ACTUAL	13	+1.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	105	63	61	68
RUSHING	6	36	35	36
PASSING	128	126	127	115
Standard Downs		61	50	65
Passing Downs		88	109	71

Q1 Rk	108	1st Down Rk	75
Q2 Rk	65	2nd Down Rk	57
Q3 Rk	32	3rd Down Rk	55
Q4 Rk	79

3. Modernization check:

They fooled me. From last year's preview:

Take a quick gander at the statistics from Army's spring game. You'll find some familiar aspects -- 11 players rushed at least three times, and the two starting quarterbacks combined for 20 carries. Again, Monken is well-versed in the triple option and will certainly use it a good amount.

That said ... Army quarterbacks also attempted 35 passes. Converted receiver Matt Kaufmann completed 13 of 17 for 206 yards, and A.J. Schurr went 9-for-18 for 137.

In five appearances last year, Schurr threw just 25 passes total. And in all of last season, only eight players caught more than one pass; five caught more than one on April 19 alone.

I know better than to take spring game stats seriously, but there was at least a hint that Army might be throwing the ball a bit more.

Instead, after attempting 164 passes in 2013, the Cadets attempted all of 114. Angel Santiago was regarded as the steadiest hand in the option game and won the starting job because of it, but he was limited, and in the end, Army's run-crazy ways skewed even further -- after running 85 percent of the time on standard downs in 2013, the Cadets ran 91 percent.

Modernized Option check: not yet operational.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2015 Year

Rivals

247 Comp.

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Angel Santiago

35

70

488

1

1

50.0%

12

14.6%

5.1

A.J. Schurr

6'0, 209

Sr.

2 stars (5.3)

NR

12

28

242

1

1

42.9%

4

12.5%

6.9

Matthew Kaufmann

5'9, 197

Jr.

NR

NR

Ahmad Bradshaw

5'11, 196

So.

NR

NR

William James

6'2, 223

Fr.

2 stars (5.3)

NR

4. Hope in Schurr (or someone else)?

Because of pretty extreme turnover at the skill positions -- the Cadets will be without their best fullback (Larry Dixon), three best slotbacks, and No. 2 WR -- the quarterback position might mean even more than normal, and the quarterback is always immensely influential in an option offense.

This could be a scary thought when you also lose your starting quarterback, but I don't see much of a dropoff in moving from Santiago to A.J. Schurr. Schurr has averaged 6.3 yards per carry and completed 26 of 53 passes for 438 yards over the last two seasons; those aren't fantastic efficiency numbers, but he seems decent at getting the ball downfield. If you can stretch the field, you probably don't need to complete more than 50 percent of your passes to have an effect.

Schurr has potential, but after this spring, we shouldn't assume he's the starter. While Schurr missed spring practice after shoulder surgery, sophomore Ahmad Bradshaw thrived, and apparently Schurr and Bradshaw will be listed as co-starters heading into fall camp. If we assume Schurr is at least decent, then anybody beating him out could be solid.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Larry Dixon	FB					190	1102	9	5.8	6.2	38.4%	1	1
Angel Santiago	QB					180	882	10	4.9	6.0	35.0%	8	5
Terry Baggett	SB(A)					54	400	2	7.4	8.0	48.1%	1	0
Matt Giachinta	FB	6'1, 224	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	46	152	1	3.3	2.3	26.1%	0	0
Raymond Maples	SB(A)					44	266	3	6.0	5.1	43.2%	0	0
A.J. Schurr	QB	6'0, 209	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	41	340	3	8.3	8.8	53.7%	3	1
Tony Giovannelli	RB					30	215	2	7.2	5.3	56.7%	2	2
Aaron Kemper	FB	5'6, 212	Jr.	NR	NR	25	158	1	6.3	11.8	28.0%	0	0
Joe Walker	SB(T)	6'0, 199	Jr.	NR	NR	18	75	2	4.2	3.9	44.4%	2	2
Trenton Turrentine	SB(T)					12	87	0	7.3	4.5	58.3%	0	0
Elijah St. Hilaire	SB(T)	5'9, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7500
John Trainor	SB(A)	5'11, 179	So.	NR	NR
Louis Napoles	SB(A)	5'6, 170	So.	NR	NR

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Edgar Poe	WR-X	6'4, 222	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7694	20	10	199	50.0%	20.2%	35.0%	10.0	72	9.0	21.9
Xavier Moss	WR-Z					17	6	52	35.3%	17.2%	58.8%	3.1	-32	3.1	5.7
Tony Giovannelli	RB					14	8	131	57.1%	14.1%	57.1%	9.4	32	9.4	14.4
Raymond Maples	SB					13	8	118	61.5%	13.1%	30.8%	9.1	20	5.6	13.0
Kelvin White	TE	6'3, 241	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7200	13	6	72	46.2%	13.1%	30.8%	5.5	-6	8.1	7.9
Joe Walker	RB	6'0, 199	Jr.	NR	NR	9	5	96	55.6%	9.1%	44.4%	10.7	34	11.4	10.6
Larry Dixon	RB					4	4	68	100.0%	4.0%	0.0%	17.0	23	NR	7.5
Terry Baggett	RB					4	1	7	25.0%	4.0%	75.0%	1.8	-9	1.3	0.8
John Trainor	RB	5'11, 179	So.	NR	NR	1	1	8	100.0%	1.0%	100.0%	8.0	-3	NR	0.9
Chevaughn Lawrence	WR-X					1	0	0	0.0%	1.0%	100.0%	0.0	-1	NR	0.0
Angel Santiago	QB					1	0	0	0.0%	1.0%	100.0%	0.0	-1	NR	0.0
Justin Newman	WR-Z					1	0	0	0.0%	1.0%	100.0%	0.0	-1	NR	0.0
DeAndre Bell	WR-Z	6'1, 219	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	1	1	-4	100.0%	1.0%	0.0%	-4.0	-15	NR	-0.4
Eddy Ruzga	TE	6'3, 241	Jr.	NR	NR
Ryan Alexander	LT/TE	6'1, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR
Jeff Ejekam	WR-Z	6'1, 190	So.	2 stars (5.2)	NR
Jermaine Adams	WR-X	6'1, 199	So.	NR	NR

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	99.6	3.24	2.86	39.8%	64.9%	16.9%	33.3	17.4%	10.7%
Rank	75	30	101	58	88	31	128	128	110

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Stephen Shumaker	LG					33
Matt Hugenberg	C	6'5, 309	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	12
Justin Gilbert (2013)	LT	6'7, 271	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	12
Todd McDonald	RT					8
Drew Hennessy	RT	6'7, 283	Sr.	NR	NR	6
Stefan Moreau	LG	6'3, 293	Jr.	NR	0.7483	6
Corey Hobbs	LT	6'0, 240	Sr.	NR	NR	5
Jaryn Villegas	RG	6'2, 294	So.	NR	NR	4
Ryan Alexander	LT/TE	6'1, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR	3
Colby Enegren	RG	6'2, 279	Jr.	NR	NR	3
Bryce Holland	RG	6'2, 265	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7867	2
Mike Houghton	LG	6'4, 257	So.	NR	NR	2
Lofi Tamasese	RG	6'1, 304	Jr.	NR	NR	0
Trey Ratliff	OL	6'5, 263	So.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	0
Grant Kramer	OL	6'3, 246	So.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	0
Brett Toth	RT	6'6, 242	So.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	0
Josh Boylan	C	6'2, 253	So.	NR	NR	0

5. A solid line, considering

For three games, the line was stable, starting, from left to right, Drew Hennessy, Stephen Shumaker, Matt Hugenberg, Stefan Moreau, and Todd McDonald.

But then the shuffling began. Corey Hobbs took over at left tackle for Game 4, with Jaryn Villegas at right guard. Then Moreau filled in at LG while Colby Enegren took over at RG in Game 5. And for the rest of the season, there was at least one change in the lineup each week. Three different players started at left tackle, as did three at left guard, four at right guard, and three at right tackle. Only Hugenberg started all 12 games, and considering Army was already missing 2013 starter Justin Gilbert, this turnover was simply too much.

Army's run blocking stats were still decent, and Army ranked 36th in Rushing S&P+, but stability on the line can be a wonderful thing. Army had none.

Despite losing Shumaker and McDonald, Army returns 10 players with starting experience up front. Granted, they have combined for only 55 career starts, but in theory, you might be able to find a steady, solid unit from among these candidates. Compared to other units, Army has recruited reasonably well -- of the 10 with starting experience, five had a recruiting rating in high school, and two were Rivals three-stars -- so perhaps the upside is high.

I would expect Army's Rushing S&P+ ranking to rise into the top 30. That will only matter if the pass is an occasional play action threat (and it might not be), but it isn't impossible to see this offense reaching a "good enough to win games as long as the defense isn't a total liability" level.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.86	76	IsoPPP+	76.8	121
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	47.7%	120	Succ. Rt. +	72.2	128
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.8	48	Off. FP+	97.0	99
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.9	112	Redzone S&P+	78.3	127
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	13.9		ACTUAL	15.0	+1.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	91	128	128	121
RUSHING	95	128	128	127
PASSING	85	118	126	111
Standard Downs		126	127	122
Passing Downs		124	127	116

Q1 Rk	111	1st Down Rk	128
Q2 Rk	114	2nd Down Rk	127
Q3 Rk	125	3rd Down Rk	100
Q4 Rk	128

6. Yuck

When Army was going 7-6 in 2010, the Cadets found a bit of a defensive identity. They bent on standard downs and attacked on passing downs, recording 25 sacks, forcing 19 fumbles, and defensing 51 passes. Those numbers aren't amazing, and the 19 forced fumbles were probably a bit on the lucky side, but this was good enough to get the defense up to 70th in Def. S&P+. That was good enough.

In 2011, the D fell to 94th; since then, it has ranked 124th, 119th, and 127th. A service academy defense is almost never going to have the size to stand up to run blocking, but you can still pick your spots. Air Force, after all, has ranked in the Def. S&P+ top 70 five times in eight years.

Thanks to pretty good punt returning, Army ranked 99th in FP+, the field position the defense created for the offense. That was the only opponent-adjusted stat above that landed in the double digits. Everything else was 100th or (much) worse. Army was dead last in Success Rate+ (efficiency) and allowed far too many big plays to get away with a bend-don't-break routine.

You could see the identity coordinator Jay Bateman was attempting to craft -- attack the run, avoid big plays on passing downs -- but he didn't have the pieces. And while there are exciting players at linebacker and cornerback, there's nothing saying the line will be any better. You don't usually improve after losing every starter.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	78.1	3.14	3.39	40.3%	70.2%	21.4%	48.9	3.1%	3.0%
Rank	127	92	74	84	85	37	125	100	123

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Richard Glover	NG					12	27.0	4.3%	5.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Joe Drummond	DE					12	26.0	4.1%	3.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Mike Ugenyi	DT					11	20.0	3.2%	3.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
John Voit	DE	6'3, 237	So.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	11	9.5	1.5%	2.5	1.0	1	0	0	0
T.J. Atimalala	NG	5'11, 264	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	12	4.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Smith	DT	6'3, 254	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR	8	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Shawn Lemoto	DT	6'3, 256	Jr.	NR	NR
Evan Finnane	DL	6'2, 257	Sr.	NR	0.7300
Andrew McLean	DL	6'4, 269	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7533
Myles Brown	DE	6'1, 213	So.	NR	NR
Spencer Welton	DE	6'1, 215	So.	NR	NR

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jeremy Timpf	WILL	6'1, 225	Jr.	NR	NR	12	98.0	15.6%	14.5	1.0	3	3	1	0
Andrew King	MIKE	6'0, 235	Jr.	NR	NR	11	46.5	7.4%	8.0	5.0	0	4	0	0
Stephen Ricciardi	SAM					11	41.0	6.5%	8.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
James Kelly	RUSH					12	32.5	5.2%	0.0	0.0	0	1	1	0
Scott Washle	MIKE	6'1, 229	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7744	8	14.0	2.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Addison Holstein	SAM					7	6.5	1.0%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dalton Mendenhall	RUSH					2	3.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justin Fahn	WILL	6'1, 211	Sr.	NR	NR	7	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Seth Combs	RUSH	6'0, 218	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	9	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Julian Holloway	LB					4	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Alex Aukerman	RUSH	6'1, 210	So.	2 stars (5.3)	NR
Sean McBryde	MIKE	6'2, 228	Jr.	NR	0.7100
Tyler L'Hommedieu	WILL	6'0, 198	So.	NR	NR
Blake Goddard	SAM	5'11, 193	So.	2 stars (5.3)	NR
Bayle Wolf	SAM	6'0, 205	So.	2 stars (5.3)	NR

7. Timpf and King are keepers

The line stats above hint at hope. Army ranked a healthy 37th in Stuff Rate (run stops at or behind the line) and 85th in Power Success Rate, and while those are unadjusted for opponent, they're still encouraging. Jeremy Timpf and Andrew King were legitimate assets, combining for six sacks, 16.5 non-sack tackles for loss, and 10 passes defensed. They both showed high-caliber pursuit. And they've both got two more years.

With Timpf and King, Army needs only general competence at other positions to boast a solid front seven. But that's obviously not guaranteed. Nose guards T.J. Atimalala and Andrew McLean had nice springs and could replace the production of Richard Glover, but six is still an extreme issue.

The six players on Army's end-of-spring two-deep average just 6'2, 249. Atimalala and McLean are the only two over 260. That's always going to be a problem. But if the line can provide more clutter for Timpf and King, Army's success rates could improve.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Josh Jenkins	CB	6'0, 196	Jr.	NR	NR	12	58.0	9.3%	4	0	4	8	0	0
Chris Carnegie	CB	6'0, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	12	49.0	7.8%	1	0	3	7	1	0
Hayden Pierce	BS					11	38.0	6.1%	1	0	0	3	0	0
Steven Johnson	CB	6'0, 191	Jr.	NR	NR	10	29.5	4.7%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Rhyan England	FS	5'10, 186	So.	NR	NR	7	24.5	3.9%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Luke Proulx	BS	5'10, 196	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	8	24.0	3.8%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Geoffery Bacon	FS					5	18.0	2.9%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
Tevin Long	FS	5'11, 200	Jr.	NR	NR	10	12.0	1.9%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Lamar Johnson-Harris	CB					11	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jared Rogers	CB	5'8, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR
Michael McFadden	CB	6'1, 196	Sr.	NR	NR
Xavier Moss	BS	6'2, 197	Jr.	NR	NR
Gervon Simon	DB	5'11, 203	Jr.	NR	0.7000

8. Cornerback is the least of the worries

Few defensive backs have been more productive than cornerback Josh Jenkins in his first two years of college ball. As a freshman, he defensed eight passes and logged one TFL, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery. In 2014, he played more of a role in run defense and recorded 12 passes defensed and four TFLs. His counterpart Chris Carnegie had 10 and one, respectively. The total lack of a pass rush assured Army would struggle on passing downs, but when given an opportunity to make plays, Jenkins and Carnegie made them.

At safety, converted receiver Xavier Moss finished spring atop the depth chart on the boundary. That hints at either Moss' athletic potential or Army's lack of options. Army was unable to keep the same two safeties on the field last year -- Hayden Pierce missed one game, Luke Prouix missed four, Rhyan England missed five, and Geoffrey Bacon missed seven -- so as with the offensive line, a little continuity could go a long way.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Alex Tardieu	6'4, 222	Sr.	44	39.3	1	21	18	88.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Daniel Grochowski	6'1, 226	Sr.	37	57.3	12	2	32.4%
Cale Brewer	6'0, 196	Sr.	20	57.3	1	1	5.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Daniel Grochowski	6'1, 226	Sr.	35-37	2-4	50.0%	5-9	55.6%
Cale Brewer	6'0, 196	Sr.	1-1	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Josh Jenkins	KR	6'0, 196	Jr.	26	17.8	0
Chris Carnegie	KR	6'0, 200	Sr.	8	19.5	0
Josh Jenkins	PR	6'0, 196	Jr.	8	4.6	0
Edgar Poe	PR	6'4, 222	Jr.	5	4.4	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	81
Field Goal Efficiency	73
Punt Return Efficiency	47
Kick Return Efficiency	100
Punt Efficiency	23
Kickoff Efficiency	113
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	120

9. A genuine asset

Alex Tardieu's punts weren't incredibly long, but they were awfully high; half of them were fair-caught, and 40 percent of them were downed inside the 20. Josh Jenkins and Edgar Poe were each consistently able to fall forward for a few yards on punt returns, which meant, relatively speaking, special teams was an overall asset. It wasn't enough of one -- kickoffs were horrendous, and place-kicking was inconsistent -- but Tardieu, Jenkins, and Poe are all back.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
4-Sep	Fordham	NR
12-Sep	at Connecticut	119
19-Sep	Wake Forest	101
26-Sep	at Eastern Michigan	128
3-Oct	at Penn State	45
10-Oct	Duke	51
17-Oct	Bucknell	NR
24-Oct	at Rice	86
7-Nov	at Air Force	48
14-Nov	Tulane	93
21-Nov	Rutgers	81
12-Dec	vs. Navy	44

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-28.7% (112)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	125 / 125
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	2 / 2.6
2014 TO Luck/Game	-0.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	11 (6, 5)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	4.4 (-0.4)

10. No place like West Point

If the Cadets are still viable at home, there are wins on the table. Five of six home opponents ranked worse than 80th in F/+ last year, and for that matter, two road opponents ranked worse than 115th. If Army were to improve from 121st to, say, 105th or so, the Cadets could threaten to improve in the win column once again.

That's probably too much to ask, though. The run game will be fine, and the passing game might improve, but the defensive front is still probably going to be too much of a liability to allow for too much defensive improvement. Army is solid in about four or five defensive positions and is between unproven and awful in the other five or six.

Army might start as few as two seniors on defense in 2015 and will be scheduled to return Jenkins, Timpf, King, and plenty of others in 2016. One could see that defense turning into something reasonably interesting, and if some young offensive players -- quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw, slotback Elijah St. Hilaire, receiver Edgar Poe, lineman Bryce Holland -- begin living up to potential, this could be a pretty dangerous team all around in 2016.