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1. You belong! Now what?
The small details sometimes mean the most.
In the last nine seasons, BYU has gone 22-22 against teams that are currently in power conferences. The Cougars have boasted an F/+ ranking in the top 55 in all nine of those seasons and have ranked in the top 30 five times.
Since leaving the Mountain West before the 2011 season, they have pounded Texas (twice) and beaten Georgia Tech (twice), Ole Miss, Oregon State, California, Washington State, and Virginia, plus mid-major powers Boise State, UCF, and Utah State (three times).
No matter what portion of history you want to view -- last five, 10, 30, 50 years -- BYU's résumé compares favorably to at least half of the power-conference universe, probably more. But until mid-March, the Cougars were not considered by most to be a "power" opponent.
But in a series of unintended, Playoff-related consequences, status changed. With athletic directors perhaps overreacting to a potential emphasis on scheduling, the SEC reversed course and decided BYU counts as a power team. (In a roundabout dig, it decided Army counts, too.) When it was a status argument, BYU didn't count. But now that everybody's looking for tougher games, BYU counts.
And wow, is the Cougars' 2015 schedule a work of independent art. In September, they play at Nebraska, at UCLA, and at Michigan, hosting Boise State in the middle. They scheduled two of the AAC's strongest programs (Cincinnati and ECU) for mid-October, and they finish November with the Mountain West's 2013 title combatants, Fresno State and Utah State. They play Missouri at Arrowhead Stadium on November 14. That's four power-conference teams, two mid-major elites, and three recently successful mid-majors.
The 2016 schedule includes trips to Arizona, Utah, WVU, and Michigan State and visits from UCLA and Mississippi State.
The 2017 schedule sees a neutral-site game against LSU, visits from Utah and Boise State, and trips to Mississippi State, Utah State, and ECU.
In 2018, BYU has trips to Arizona, Wisconsin, Washington, Utah, and Boise State and visits from Cal, Utah State, and MAC power NIU. Wisconsin, USC, Washington, and Michigan State come to Provo in 2019-20, and there's a home-and-home with Stanford in the 2020s.
I think this independence thing is going to work. Now the Cougars need to keep winning their share of these big games.
BYU has been consistently decent, but it has to be disconcerting that, since peaking at 18th in the 2012 F/+ rankings, the Cougars fell to 27th in 2013 and 46th in 2014. Sure, there was context -- for instance, last fall, they fell apart in the wake of quarterback Taysom Hill's injury, then rallied -- but the offense has only improved in small increments, and the defense trailed off dramatically.
The fruits of a strong 2013 recruiting class are returning from their missions, and the base of talent appears as strong as it has ever been. But a defensive rebound is going to require unproven pieces to step up in the back seven, and an offensive line that was key to BYU's early- and late-season success gets thinned out.
I'm not necessarily worried about BYU's long-term prospects, but there is growing dissatisfaction with head coach Bronco Mendenhall, fair or not. How much patience is shown if, now that scheduling is looking up, BYU lays some eggs against power teams?
2014 Schedule & Results
Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 8-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 46 | |||||||
Date | Opponent | Opp. F/+ Rk | Score | W-L | Percentile Performance |
Adj. Scoring Margin |
Win Expectancy |
29-Aug | at Connecticut | 119 | 35-10 | W | 77% | 17.4 | 100% |
6-Sep | at Texas | 53 | 41-7 | W | 95% | 38.7 | 100% |
11-Sep | Houston | 73 | 33-25 | W | 62% | 7.2 | 66% |
20-Sep | Virginia | 39 | 41-33 | W | 73% | 14.1 | 87% |
3-Oct | Utah State | 52 | 20-35 | L | 30% | -12.1 | 7% |
9-Oct | at Central Florida | 60 | 24-31 | L | 50% | -0.3 | 34% |
18-Oct | Nevada | 64 | 35-42 | L | 28% | -13.9 | 16% |
24-Oct | at Boise State | 21 | 30-55 | L | 13% | -26.3 | 0% |
1-Nov | at Middle Tennessee | 87 | 27-7 | W | 86% | 25.2 | 99% |
15-Nov | UNLV | 118 | 42-23 | W | 79% | 19.1 | 100% |
22-Nov | Savannah State | NR | 64-0 | W | 90% | 29.8 | 100% |
29-Nov | at California | 65 | 42-35 | W | 60% | 5.6 | 78% |
22-Dec | vs. Memphis | 41 | 48-55 | L | 47% | -1.8 | 17% |
Category | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk |
S&P+ | 31.7 | 50 | 25.5 | 49 |
Points Per Game | 37.1 | 15 | 27.5 | 73 |
2. Three seasons
Recent years have required quite a bit of explanation. In 2012, the Cougars ranked in the F/+ top 20, with a legitimate top-10 defense, but a 1-4 record in one-score games relegated them to the same 8-5 record they've produced since. Last year, BYU spent two-thirds of the season playing like a legitimate top-30 team but cratered in the middle, losing four in a row.
- Average Percentile Performance (first 4 games): 77% (record: 4-0)
- Average Percentile Performance (next 4 games): 30% (record: 0-4)
- Average Percentile Performance (next 4 games): 79% (record: 4-0)
The reason was in no way mysterious. BYU had Taysom Hill, lost him, then figured out how to win without him.
Through four, BYU was averaging 38 points and a decent 5.7 yards per play. Hill had rushed for 428 yards and completed 66 percent of his passes, and in the first half against Utah State, he completed eight of 11 for 99 yards, rushed for 35 yards, and engineered two touchdown drives.
But he fractured his leg in an awkward tackle, and he was lost for the season. Utah State surged for a 15-point win, the BYU offense was stagnant (4.4 yards per play) in losses to UCF and Boise State, and the defense fell apart in a loss to Nevada. BYU went from 4-0 to 4-4, playing at barely a top-90 level in the losses.
Then, the offense stabilized, and the defense surged. The Cougs allowed 4.1 yards per play over the final four games (4.6 if you take away punching bag Savannah State), and the offense averaged 6.6. BYU was back on a roll before the wild bowl loss to Memphis.
Obviously defensive shakiness couldn't be pinned on Hill's injury, but there's no question BYU was an top-30-caliber squad when the quarterback position was stable. That says good things for 2015.
Offense
FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE | ||||||
Raw Category | Rk | Opp. Adj. Category | Rk | |||
EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP | 0.89 | 45 | IsoPPP+ | 122.5 | 25 |
EFFICIENCY | Succ. Rt. | 44.3% | 42 | Succ. Rt. + | 107.5 | 42 |
FIELD POSITION | Def. Avg. FP | 31.3 | 93 | Def. FP+ | 100.0 | 65 |
FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Trip in 40 | 4.7 | 40 | Redzone S&P+ | 113.0 | 32 |
TURNOVERS | EXPECTED | 28.3 | ACTUAL | 27 | -1.3 |
Category | Yards/ Game Rk |
S&P+ Rk | Success Rt. Rk |
PPP+ Rk |
OVERALL | 28 | 28 | 39 | 25 |
RUSHING | 49 | 24 | 33 | 26 |
PASSING | 27 | 33 | 45 | 31 |
Standard Downs | 36 | 39 | 37 | |
Passing Downs | 14 | 34 | 8 |
Q1 Rk | 28 | 1st Down Rk | 47 |
Q2 Rk | 32 | 2nd Down Rk | 54 |
Q3 Rk | 26 | 3rd Down Rk | 15 |
Q4 Rk | 63 |
Quarterback
Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.
Player | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
Christian Stewart | 199 | 348 | 2621 | 25 | 9 | 57.2% | 21 | 5.7% | 6.7 | ||||
Taysom Hill | 6'2, 232 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8484 | 88 | 132 | 975 | 7 | 3 | 66.7% | 14 | 9.6% | 6.2 |
McCoy Hill | 6'6, 230 | So. | NR | NR | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 13.5 |
Hunter Moore | 6'2, 190 | So. | 2 stars (5.2) | NR | |||||||||
Tanner Mangum | 6'3, 195 | Fr. | 4 stars (6.0) | 0.9448 | |||||||||
Beau Hoge | 6'1, 198 | Fr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8258 | |||||||||
Koy Detmer Jr. | 5'10, 165 | Fr. | 2 stars (5.2) | NR |
3. Welcome back, Taysom
BYU fan HQ
BYU fan HQ
For the first time since 2009, BYU's offense was reaching a high level before Hill went down. The Cougars ranked in the Off. S&P+ top 40 each year between 2005-09 but collapsed to 76th in 2010 and have been putting the pieces back together since.
You can build something impressive around Hill's combination of insane rushing (7.4 yards per non-sack carry, with 68 percent of his rushes gaining at least five yards) and efficiency passing. He doesn't have much of a deep ball, and while his completion rate rose drastically in 2014, his per-completion average fell to just 11.1 yards. You can make do with that when you've got such explosive legs, but the optimal situation would be to uncork more of a deep threat.
As fun as Hill is to watch -- if he has a great first month and BYU pulls a couple of upsets, he's going to be high on Heisman lists -- the backup race is going to be intriguing, too. Hill is a senior, and the race for 2016 starter will include last year's end-of-year backup (McCoy Hill, no relation), a Detmer (Koy Jr., a preferred walk-on and probably not a true threat, but a Detmer!), a three-star freshman (Beau Hoge), and the jewel of the 2013 class, Tanner Mangum. Mangum is back from his two-year mission and could be one heck of a backup.
But we won't think about Hill going down. In the last two seasons, we've lost three exciting Utah quarterbacks to serious injury four times (Hill, Utah's Travis Wilson, Utah State's Chuckie Keeton twice). No more, please. These guys are too fun to watch.
Running Back
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
Fumbles | Fum. Lost |
Jamaal Williams | RB | 6'0, 206 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8335 | 112 | 517 | 4 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 36.6% | 2 | 1 |
Paul Lasike | RB | 79 | 364 | 7 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 32.9% | 3 | 1 | ||||
Taysom Hill | QB | 6'2, 232 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8484 | 72 | 535 | 8 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 68.1% | 3 | 1 |
Algernon Brown | FB | 6'1, 229 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.0000 | 68 | 324 | 0 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 41.2% | 2 | 2 |
Christian Stewart | QB | 61 | 302 | 4 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 49.2% | 7 | 3 | ||||
Nate Carter | RB | 5'9, 181 | Sr. | NR | NR | 46 | 290 | 1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 56.5% | 0 | 0 |
Adam Hine | RB | 6'1, 208 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8721 | 40 | 154 | 2 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 25.0% | 1 | 0 |
AJ Moore | RB | 5'9, 195 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8546 | 10 | 62 | 1 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 60.0% | 0 | 0 |
Hunter Moore | QB | 6'2, 190 | So. | 2 stars (5.2) | NR | 7 | 30 | 0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 28.6% | 0 | 0 |
Mitchell Juergens | HB | 5'10, 182 | Jr. | NR | NR | 6 | 23 | 0 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 3 | 2 |
McCoy Hill | QB | 6'6, 230 | So. | NR | NR | 5 | 27 | 0 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 40.0% | 0 | 0 |
Toloa'I Ho Ching | FB | 6'1, 242 | So. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8525 | ||||||||
Charles West | RB | 5'10, 187 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8447 | ||||||||
Riley Burt | RB | 6'1, 195 | Fr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8166 |
Receiving Corps
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Targets | Catches | Yards | Catch Rate | Target Rate |
%SD | Yds/ Target |
NEY | Real Yds/ Target |
RYPR |
Mitch Mathews | WR | 6'6, 215 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8410 | 111 | 73 | 922 | 65.8% | 24.0% | 66.7% | 8.3 | 43 | 8.4 | 117.7 |
Jordan Leslie | WR | 103 | 55 | 779 | 53.4% | 22.3% | 68.0% | 7.6 | 88 | 7.8 | 99.4 | ||||
Mitchell Juergens | HB | 5'10, 182 | Jr. | NR | NR | 47 | 28 | 424 | 59.6% | 10.2% | 61.7% | 9.0 | 80 | 9.1 | 54.1 |
Terenn Houk | IR | 6'5, 223 | Sr. | NR | NR | 35 | 21 | 241 | 60.0% | 7.6% | 45.7% | 6.9 | -16 | 7.0 | 30.8 |
Paul Lasike | RB | 30 | 25 | 267 | 83.3% | 6.5% | 46.7% | 8.9 | -22 | 9.3 | 34.1 | ||||
Devin Mahina | TE | 29 | 20 | 244 | 69.0% | 6.3% | 69.0% | 8.4 | 5 | 8.0 | 31.1 | ||||
Colby Pearson | IR | 6'0, 191 | Jr. | NR | NR | 22 | 16 | 270 | 72.7% | 4.8% | 68.2% | 12.3 | 81 | 11.9 | 34.5 |
Algernon Brown | RB | 6'1, 229 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.7) | NR | 20 | 14 | 139 | 70.0% | 4.3% | 65.0% | 7.0 | -28 | 7.1 | 17.7 |
Devon Blackmon | WR | 6'1, 185 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.9772 | 15 | 10 | 130 | 66.7% | 3.2% | 46.7% | 8.7 | 10 | 9.1 | 16.6 |
Jamaal Williams | RB | 6'0, 206 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8335 | 11 | 8 | 47 | 72.7% | 2.4% | 54.5% | 4.3 | -48 | 4.1 | 6.0 |
Adam Hine | RB | 6'1, 208 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8721 | 9 | 7 | 43 | 77.8% | 1.9% | 66.7% | 4.8 | -39 | 4.6 | 5.5 |
Kurt Henderson | WR | 6'1, 180 | Sr. | NR | NR | 8 | 2 | 44 | 25.0% | 1.7% | 62.5% | 5.5 | 13 | 5.9 | 5.6 |
Ross Apo | WR | 8 | 1 | 13 | 12.5% | 1.7% | 37.5% | 1.6 | -9 | 1.1 | 1.7 | ||||
Keanu Nelson | WR | 7 | 5 | 44 | 71.4% | 1.5% | 28.6% | 6.3 | -15 | 9.2 | 5.6 | ||||
Trey Dye | HB | 5'9, 175 | So. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.8120 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 100.0% | 0.6% | 100.0% | 2.7 | -26 | NR | 1.0 |
Jake Ziolkowski | IR | 6'0, 195 | Jr. | NR | NR | ||||||||||
Bryan Sampson | TE | 6'4, 221 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8484 | ||||||||||
Nick Kurtz | WR | 6'6, 205 | Jr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.8705 |
4. Mitches and other options
Between Hill, Jamaal Williams, and Mitch Mathews, BYU will not lack for senior leadership in the skill corps. Williams, never great and never terrible, has been a steady force for three years, and after averaging 10.2 yards per target as a No. 2 receiver (pre-injury) in 2013, Mathews averaged 8.3 as a heavily targeted go-to last fall.
And it appears there will be plenty of options to keep wear and tear down. Big Algernon Brown is a nice efficiency option in the backfield, Terenn Houck is a decent possession receiver, and Mitchell Juergens was a huge threat down the stretch (last two games: 11 catches, 194 yards).
Add to this group some intriguing newcomers -- four-star JUCO receiver Nick Kurtz, three-star JUCO tight end Bryan Sampson, three-star freshman running backs Charles West and Riley Burt -- and you've got all the weapons Hill might need.
Offensive Line
Category | Adj. Line Yds |
Std. Downs LY/carry |
Pass. Downs LY/carry |
Opp. Rate |
Power Success Rate |
Stuff Rate |
Adj. Sack Rate |
Std. Downs Sack Rt. |
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. |
Team | 116 | 3.18 | 4.05 | 43.7% | 76.9% | 17.6% | 86.3 | 5.6% | 9.1% |
Rank | 18 | 32 | 8 | 22 | 13 | 43 | 87 | 83 | 91 |
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Career Starts | Honors/Notes |
Ryker Mathews | LT | 6'6, 320 | Sr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.885 | 22 | |
De'Ondre Wesley | RT | 22 | |||||
Kyle Johnson | LG | 6'4, 303 | Jr. | NR | NR | 20 | |
Solomone Kafu | LG | 19 | |||||
Tejan Koroma | C | 6'0, 280 | So. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.7719 | 13 | |
Brock Stringham | RG | 10 | |||||
Terrance Alletto | RG | 9 | |||||
Ului Lapuaho | LT | 6'7, 333 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8373 | 8 | |
Brayden Kearsley | RG | 5 | |||||
Tuni Kanuch | RG | 6'3, 325 | So. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8484 | 4 | |
Brad Wilcox | LT | 6'7, 305 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.8081 | 0 | |
Manu Mulitalo | LG | 6'2, 373 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8410 | 0 | |
Parker Dawe | C | 6'3, 285 | Jr. | NR | NR | 0 | |
Jaterius Gulley | RG | 6'3, 346 | RSFr. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7000 | ||
Austin Hoyt | OL | 6'7, 268 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8549 |
5. Lose four starters, return four starters
BYU's line situation has been interesting. The Cougars ranked No. 7 in Adj. Line Yards in 2013 and returned nine players with starting experience, but injuries were a catalyst for shuffling in 2014. Some new players were forced into the rotation, and BYU finished with TEN guys with starting experience ... and still ranked 18th in Adj. Line Yards. (The sack rates were bad both years, but that's always going to be the case with Hill running around.)
BYU is in a strange spot: four guys with at least eight career starts are gone, and four return. Depth could be a bigger issue if injuries to players like Ryker Mathews don't subside, but the starting five should be pretty experienced and strong ... whoever's actually on that starting five.
Defense
FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE | ||||||
Raw Category | Rk | Opp. Adj. Category | Rk | |||
EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP | 0.86 | 73 | IsoPPP+ | 103.2 | 58 |
EFFICIENCY | Succ. Rt. | 38.5% | 29 | Succ. Rt. + | 99.6 | 65 |
FIELD POSITION | Off. Avg. FP | 31.9 | 27 | Off. FP+ | 102.0 | 38 |
FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Trip in 40 | 4.3 | 62 | Redzone S&P+ | 98.2 | 71 |
TURNOVERS | EXPECTED | 28.8 | ACTUAL | 26.0 | -2.8 |
Category | Yards/ Game Rk |
S&P+ Rk | Success Rt. Rk |
PPP+ Rk |
OVERALL | 58 | 58 | 64 | 58 |
RUSHING | 20 | 29 | 43 | 23 |
PASSING | 114 | 79 | 86 | 76 |
Standard Downs | 57 | 67 | 62 | |
Passing Downs | 59 | 69 | 59 |
Q1 Rk | 57 | 1st Down Rk | 38 |
Q2 Rk | 84 | 2nd Down Rk | 60 |
Q3 Rk | 34 | 3rd Down Rk | 50 |
Q4 Rk | 32 |
6. Opponents didn't run if they didn't have to
You weren't getting anywhere quickly if you tried to run. The Cougars allowed six rushes of 20-plus yards, the fewest in the country. They did a good job of preventing opportunities and quickly swallowing up the ones they allowed. They got pushed around in power situations, but that's only so much of a problem if you're shutting down first-and-10 carries.
Opponents knew the path of least resistance was through the air, and they took advantage. The BYU pass rush, so dangerous in recent years, was shaky, especially outside of Bronson Kaufusi. The secondary was relatively dangerous, getting hands on quite a few passes, but without a pass rush, there were easy completions. Even against an active secondary, opponents completed 58 percent.
Granted, there aren't many incredible passing teams on the 2015 schedule, and that could be a boon for BYU's odds of putting together another eight-plus wins. Still, pass defense will likely be a weakness if opponents tire of trying to move the ball with handoffs.
Defensive Line
Category | Adj. Line Yds |
Std. Downs LY/carry |
Pass. Downs LY/carry |
Opp. Rate |
Power Success Rate |
Stuff Rate |
Adj. Sack Rate |
Std. Downs Sack Rt. |
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. |
Team | 99.2 | 2.68 | 3.10 | 31.3% | 76.1% | 20.0% | 79.7 | 4.0% | 5.1% |
Rank | 65 | 33 | 45 | 7 | 113 | 55 | 99 | 83 | 108 |
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Bronson Kaufusi | DE/WLB | 6'7, 265 | Sr. | 4 stars (5.9) | 0.9279 | 11 | 38.5 | 4.9% | 11.5 | 7.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Logan Taele | DE | 6'2, 280 | Sr. | NR | NR | 12 | 23.5 | 3.0% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Travis Tuiloma | NT | 6'2, 285 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7889 | 13 | 23.0 | 2.9% | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Graham Rowley | DE | 6'4, 280 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8780 | 13 | 20.0 | 2.5% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Remington Peck | DE | 6'4, 271 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8389 | 13 | 19.0 | 2.4% | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Marques Johnson | NT | 12 | 14.5 | 1.8% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Tomasi Laulile | DE | 6'3, 285 | Jr. | NR | NR | 13 | 5.5 | 0.7% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Theodore King | DL | 6'2, 265 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7000 | 1 | 3.0 | 0.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kesni Tausinga | NT | 6'1, 308 | So. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8432 | |||||||||
Isaiah Nacua | DE | 6'3, 250 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8582 | |||||||||
Tevita Mo'unga | NT | 6'3, 300 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8478 | |||||||||
Moses Kaumatule | DE | 6'1, 254 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8600 |
Linebackers
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Zac Stout | MLB | 12 | 53.0 | 6.7% | 7.5 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||
Manoa Pikula | BLB | 6'1, 239 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8391 | 13 | 38.5 | 4.9% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Alani Fua | SLB | 10 | 35.0 | 4.4% | 7.5 | 3.0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Jherremya Leuta-Douyere | BLB | 6'1, 236 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.8056 | 13 | 25.5 | 3.2% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Michael Alisa | SLB | 13 | 21.0 | 2.7% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | ||||
Fred Warner | SLB | 6'3, 220 | So. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.8921 | 10 | 19.5 | 2.5% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Sione Takitaki | WLB | 6'2, 240 | So. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8510 | 11 | 17.0 | 2.2% | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Teu Kautai | MLB | 6'1, 231 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7889 | 13 | 17.0 | 2.2% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Austin Heder | MLB | 6'2, 234 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8366 | 10 | 14.0 | 1.8% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Harvey Langi | MLB | 6'2, 240 | Jr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.9068 | 12 | 12.5 | 1.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sae Tautu | SLB | 6'3, 235 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.8111 | 12 | 8.0 | 1.0% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Troy Hinds | WLB | 6'5, 230 | So. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.9230 | 12 | 4.5 | 0.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tyler Cook | WLB | 6'3, 218 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8478 | |||||||||
Lene Lesatele | LB | 6'1, 238 | So. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8269 | |||||||||
Butch Pauu | LB | 6'0, 220 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8581 | |||||||||
Rhett Sandlin | LB | 6'3, 225 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.7900 |
7. Find another pass rusher
How the Playoff gave BYU power
How the Playoff gave BYU power
With Kaufusi at linebacker, linemen combined for just 2.5 sacks. That doesn't cut it, even in a 3-4.
The front seven is going to need to help more on pass defense, as the secondary has been thinned out considerably. Thanks to injuries, quite a few DBs played last year, but of the nine who recorded at least 10 tackles, four return.
So who's it going to be? Remington Peck might have decent pass-rushing potential, but the most intriguing candidate might be sophomore Sione Takitaki, who in limited opportunities recorded three sacks from the WLB position.
If the pass rush is better, the run defense should be all right. Linebackers Zac Stout and Alani Fua (combined: 11 non-sack TFLs) are gone, but play-making tackle Travis Tuiloma's back, and senior LBs Manoa Pikula and Jherremya Leuta-Douyere are steady. Losing Stout and Fua means the same level of run defense isn't guaranteed, but the major questions are still with the pass defense.
Secondary
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Skye PoVey | FS | 13 | 66.5 | 8.4% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Craig Bills | FS | 9 | 43.0 | 5.4% | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Robertson Daniel | CB | 12 | 41.0 | 5.2% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 0 | ||||
Michael Davis | CB | 6'2, 181 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.7785 | 13 | 39.5 | 5.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Dallin Leavitt | KAT | 11 | 37.0 | 4.7% | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Kai Nacua | FS | 6'1, 207 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7891 | 13 | 35.0 | 4.4% | 3.5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Harvey Jackson | KAT | 13 | 24.5 | 3.1% | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Jordan Preator | CB | 6'0, 183 | So. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.7783 | 12 | 21.5 | 2.7% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
Kavika Fonua | FS | 6'0, 200 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.7000 | 11 | 12.5 | 1.6% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jordan Johnson | CB | 5 | 7.5 | 1.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Matt Hadley (2012) | DB | 6'0, 191 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8292 | 7 | 6.0 | 1.0% | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Michael Wadsworth | DB | 6'1, 210 | Sr. | NR | 0.7873 | 13 | 5.0 | 0.6% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chris Badger | FS | 6'1, 197 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8641 | 12 | 4.5 | 0.6% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Garrett Juergens | DB | 5'10, 185 | Jr. | NR | NR | 5 | 3.0 | 0.4% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Micah Hannemann (2012) | CB | 6'1, 200 | So. | NR | NR | 8 | 1.0 | 0.2% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Michael Shelton | CB | 5'9, 180 | RSFr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7954 | |||||||||
Eric Takenaka | KAT | 5'10, 205 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8056 | |||||||||
Grant Jones | KAT | 6'5, 210 | So. | NR | NR | |||||||||
Sawyer Powell | DB | 6'1, 203 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8432 | |||||||||
Dayan Lake | DB | 5'11, 190 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8730 | |||||||||
Zayne Anderson | DB | 6'2, 190 | Fr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8268 |
8. Young, questionable, and full of options
If you are going to enter a season with few proven options, you might as well bring tons of candidates.
Corners Michael Davis and Jordan Preator showed high-caliber potential, combining for 16 passes defensed, and safeties Kai Nacua and Kavika Fonua got plenty of playing time as underclassmen. Matt Hadley and Micah Hannemann, backups from 2012, are also back. So are some unproven three-star options.
Competition should assure that the starting four is solid. But last year's DBs were more than solid, and BYU ranked 79th in Passing S&P+. If the pass rush doesn't improve, the secondary will have to come up big.
Special Teams
Punter | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
Scott Arellano | 69 | 45.0 | 2 | 21 | 27 | 69.6% |
Kicker | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Kickoffs | Avg | TB | OOB | TB% |
Andrew Mikkelsen | 72 | 59.1 | 17 | 3 | 23.6% | ||
Trevor Samson | 5'11, 183 | Sr. | 11 | 49.4 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
PAT | FG (0-39) |
Pct | FG (40+) |
Pct |
Trevor Samson | 5'11, 183 | Sr. | 62-63 | 10-11 | 90.9% | 2-3 | 66.7% |
Returner | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Returns | Avg. | TD |
Adam Hine | KR | 6'1, 208 | Sr. | 22 | 24.5 | 1 |
Mitchell Juergens | KR | 5'10, 182 | Jr. | 5 | 22.4 | 0 |
Devon Blackmon | PR | 6'1, 185 | Sr. | 12 | 5.7 | 0 |
Mitchell Juergens | PR | 5'10, 182 | Jr. | 9 | 6.7 | 0 |
Category | Rk |
Special Teams F/+ | 40 |
Field Goal Efficiency | 43 |
Punt Return Efficiency | 98 |
Kick Return Efficiency | 74 |
Punt Efficiency | 11 |
Kickoff Efficiency | 52 |
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency | 65 |
9. In need of a couple new legs
Despite an only decent return game, special teams were a net benefit for BYU. The return men are back (including Adam Hine, who did score a kick return touchdown), but ace punter Scott Arellano is gone, as is a decent kickoffs guy in Andrew Mikkelsen. Place-kicking won't be a concern with Trevor Samson back, but with a new punter, it might be difficult to finish in the special teams top 40 again.
2015 Schedule & Projection Factors
2015 Schedule | ||
Date | Opponent | 2014 F/+ Rk |
5-Sep | at Nebraska | 30 |
12-Sep | Boise State | 21 |
19-Sep | at UCLA | 12 |
26-Sep | at Michigan | 54 |
2-Oct | Connecticut | 119 |
10-Oct | East Carolina | 61 |
16-Oct | Cincinnati | 47 |
24-Oct | Wagner | NR |
6-Nov | at San Jose State | 116 |
14-Nov | vs. Missouri | 20 |
21-Nov | Fresno State | 102 |
28-Nov | at Utah State | 52 |
Five-Year F/+ Rk | 16.3% (33) |
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk | 70 / 70 |
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* | -1 / 0.5 |
2014 TO Luck/Game | -0.6 |
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) | 14 (8, 6) |
2014 Second-order wins (difference) | 8.0 (0.0) |
10. September defines the season
There are two ways to look at BYU's schedule:
1. Holy crap, look at those big names early in the year.
2. Holy crap, of all those big names, is there one that can take advantage of BYU's iffy pass defense?
No. 1 tells us a lot of people will be paying attention to BYU in September. No. 2 will determine just how high a profile the Cougars and Hill have when they venture into Mid-Major Land in October. Each of the first four opponents is breaking in either a new coach or quarterback, and while Missouri awaits late, the Tigers are breaking in a brand new receiving corps.
Pass defense and health are the two issues in the way of a brilliant BYU season. Hill is the real deal and has a mix of experience and upside at his disposal. And while the offensive line could suffer injuries again, it's a solid line regardless. Even against the big names, a healthy BYU offense is going to score.
This is a huge year for Mendenhall. This isn't going to be his best team, but it's going to be good enough to play in a lot of close games against a lot of interesting teams. In theory, anything between about 11-1 and 6-6 is possible with a slight variation in quality and luck.
After 2012's "good, but 8-5" season, is this the year the breaks go a little more in BYU's favor?