BYU's basically a power program, but 2015's schedule would challenge anybody

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1. You belong! Now what?

The small details sometimes mean the most.

In the last nine seasons, BYU has gone 22-22 against teams that are currently in power conferences. The Cougars have boasted an F/+ ranking in the top 55 in all nine of those seasons and have ranked in the top 30 five times.

Since leaving the Mountain West before the 2011 season, they have pounded Texas (twice) and beaten Georgia Tech (twice), Ole Miss, Oregon State, California, Washington State, and Virginia, plus mid-major powers Boise State, UCF, and Utah State (three times).

No matter what portion of history you want to view -- last five, 10, 30, 50 years -- BYU's résumé compares favorably to at least half of the power-conference universe, probably more. But until mid-March, the Cougars were not considered by most to be a "power" opponent.

But in a series of unintended, Playoff-related consequences, status changed. With athletic directors perhaps overreacting to a potential emphasis on scheduling, the SEC reversed course and decided BYU counts as a power team. (In a roundabout dig, it decided Army counts, too.) When it was a status argument, BYU didn't count. But now that everybody's looking for tougher games, BYU counts.

And wow, is the Cougars' 2015 schedule a work of independent art. In September, they play at Nebraska, at UCLA, and at Michigan, hosting Boise State in the middle. They scheduled two of the AAC's strongest programs (Cincinnati and ECU) for mid-October, and they finish November with the Mountain West's 2013 title combatants, Fresno State and Utah State. They play Missouri at Arrowhead Stadium on November 14. That's four power-conference teams, two mid-major elites, and three recently successful mid-majors.

The 2016 schedule includes trips to Arizona, Utah, WVU, and Michigan State and visits from UCLA and Mississippi State.

The 2017 schedule sees a neutral-site game against LSU, visits from Utah and Boise State, and trips to Mississippi State, Utah State, and ECU.

In 2018, BYU has trips to Arizona, Wisconsin, Washington, Utah, and Boise State and visits from Cal, Utah State, and MAC power NIU. Wisconsin, USC, Washington, and Michigan State come to Provo in 2019-20, and there's a home-and-home with Stanford in the 2020s.

I think this independence thing is going to work. Now the Cougars need to keep winning their share of these big games.

BYU has been consistently decent, but it has to be disconcerting that, since peaking at 18th in the 2012 F/+ rankings, the Cougars fell to 27th in 2013 and 46th in 2014. Sure, there was context -- for instance, last fall, they fell apart in the wake of quarterback Taysom Hill's injury, then rallied -- but the offense has only improved in small increments, and the defense trailed off dramatically.

The fruits of a strong 2013 recruiting class are returning from their missions, and the base of talent appears as strong as it has ever been. But a defensive rebound is going to require unproven pieces to step up in the back seven, and an offensive line that was key to BYU's early- and late-season success gets thinned out.

I'm not necessarily worried about BYU's long-term prospects, but there is growing dissatisfaction with head coach Bronco Mendenhall, fair or not. How much patience is shown if, now that scheduling is looking up, BYU lays some eggs against power teams?

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 8-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 46
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
29-Aug	at Connecticut	119	35-10	W	77%	17.4	100%
6-Sep	at Texas	53	41-7	W	95%	38.7	100%
11-Sep	Houston	73	33-25	W	62%	7.2	66%
20-Sep	Virginia	39	41-33	W	73%	14.1	87%
3-Oct	Utah State	52	20-35	L	30%	-12.1	7%
9-Oct	at Central Florida	60	24-31	L	50%	-0.3	34%
18-Oct	Nevada	64	35-42	L	28%	-13.9	16%
24-Oct	at Boise State	21	30-55	L	13%	-26.3	0%
1-Nov	at Middle Tennessee	87	27-7	W	86%	25.2	99%
15-Nov	UNLV	118	42-23	W	79%	19.1	100%
22-Nov	Savannah State	NR	64-0	W	90%	29.8	100%
29-Nov	at California	65	42-35	W	60%	5.6	78%
22-Dec	vs. Memphis	41	48-55	L	47%	-1.8	17%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	31.7	50	25.5	49
Points Per Game	37.1	15	27.5	73

2. Three seasons

Recent years have required quite a bit of explanation. In 2012, the Cougars ranked in the F/+ top 20, with a legitimate top-10 defense, but a 1-4 record in one-score games relegated them to the same 8-5 record they've produced since. Last year, BYU spent two-thirds of the season playing like a legitimate top-30 team but cratered in the middle, losing four in a row.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 4 games): 77% (record: 4-0)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 4 games): 30% (record: 0-4)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 4 games): 79% (record: 4-0)

The reason was in no way mysterious. BYU had Taysom Hill, lost him, then figured out how to win without him.

Through four, BYU was averaging 38 points and a decent 5.7 yards per play. Hill had rushed for 428 yards and completed 66 percent of his passes, and in the first half against Utah State, he completed eight of 11 for 99 yards, rushed for 35 yards, and engineered two touchdown drives.

But he fractured his leg in an awkward tackle, and he was lost for the season. Utah State surged for a 15-point win, the BYU offense was stagnant (4.4 yards per play) in losses to UCF and Boise State, and the defense fell apart in a loss to Nevada. BYU went from 4-0 to 4-4, playing at barely a top-90 level in the losses.

Then, the offense stabilized, and the defense surged. The Cougs allowed 4.1 yards per play over the final four games (4.6 if you take away punching bag Savannah State), and the offense averaged 6.6. BYU was back on a roll before the wild bowl loss to Memphis.

Obviously defensive shakiness couldn't be pinned on Hill's injury, but there's no question BYU was an top-30-caliber squad when the quarterback position was stable. That says good things for 2015.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.89	45	IsoPPP+	122.5	25
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.3%	42	Succ. Rt. +	107.5	42
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.3	93	Def. FP+	100.0	65
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	40	Redzone S&P+	113.0	32
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	28.3		ACTUAL	27	-1.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	28	28	39	25
RUSHING	49	24	33	26
PASSING	27	33	45	31
Standard Downs		36	39	37
Passing Downs		14	34	8

Q1 Rk	28	1st Down Rk	47
Q2 Rk	32	2nd Down Rk	54
Q3 Rk	26	3rd Down Rk	15
Q4 Rk	63

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Christian Stewart					199	348	2621	25	9	57.2%	21	5.7%	6.7
Taysom Hill	6'2, 232	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8484	88	132	975	7	3	66.7%	14	9.6%	6.2
McCoy Hill	6'6, 230	So.	NR	NR	2	2	27	0	0	100.0%	0	0.0%	13.5
Hunter Moore	6'2, 190	So.	2 stars (5.2)	NR
Tanner Mangum	6'3, 195	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9448
Beau Hoge	6'1, 198	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8258
Koy Detmer Jr.	5'10, 165	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR

3. Welcome back, Taysom

For the first time since 2009, BYU's offense was reaching a high level before Hill went down. The Cougars ranked in the Off. S&P+ top 40 each year between 2005-09 but collapsed to 76th in 2010 and have been putting the pieces back together since.

You can build something impressive around Hill's combination of insane rushing (7.4 yards per non-sack carry, with 68 percent of his rushes gaining at least five yards) and efficiency passing. He doesn't have much of a deep ball, and while his completion rate rose drastically in 2014, his per-completion average fell to just 11.1 yards. You can make do with that when you've got such explosive legs, but the optimal situation would be to uncork more of a deep threat.

As fun as Hill is to watch -- if he has a great first month and BYU pulls a couple of upsets, he's going to be high on Heisman lists -- the backup race is going to be intriguing, too. Hill is a senior, and the race for 2016 starter will include last year's end-of-year backup (McCoy Hill, no relation), a Detmer (Koy Jr., a preferred walk-on and probably not a true threat, but a Detmer!), a three-star freshman (Beau Hoge), and the jewel of the 2013 class, Tanner Mangum. Mangum is back from his two-year mission and could be one heck of a backup.

But we won't think about Hill going down. In the last two seasons, we've lost three exciting Utah quarterbacks to serious injury four times (Hill, Utah's Travis Wilson, Utah State's Chuckie Keeton twice). No more, please. These guys are too fun to watch.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Jamaal Williams	RB	6'0, 206	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8335	112	517	4	4.6	3.5	36.6%	2	1
Paul Lasike	RB					79	364	7	4.6	4.2	32.9%	3	1
Taysom Hill	QB	6'2, 232	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8484	72	535	8	7.4	4.0	68.1%	3	1
Algernon Brown	FB	6'1, 229	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.0000	68	324	0	4.8	3.2	41.2%	2	2
Christian Stewart	QB					61	302	4	5.0	3.5	49.2%	7	3
Nate Carter	RB	5'9, 181	Sr.	NR	NR	46	290	1	6.3	3.9	56.5%	0	0
Adam Hine	RB	6'1, 208	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8721	40	154	2	3.9	4.8	25.0%	1	0
AJ Moore	RB	5'9, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8546	10	62	1	6.2	3.6	60.0%	0	0
Hunter Moore	QB	6'2, 190	So.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	7	30	0	4.3	1.5	28.6%	0	0
Mitchell Juergens	HB	5'10, 182	Jr.	NR	NR	6	23	0	3.8	0.5	50.0%	3	2
McCoy Hill	QB	6'6, 230	So.	NR	NR	5	27	0	5.4	3.7	40.0%	0	0
Toloa'I Ho Ching	FB	6'1, 242	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8525
Charles West	RB	5'10, 187	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8447
Riley Burt	RB	6'1, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8166

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Mitch Mathews	WR	6'6, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8410	111	73	922	65.8%	24.0%	66.7%	8.3	43	8.4	117.7
Jordan Leslie	WR					103	55	779	53.4%	22.3%	68.0%	7.6	88	7.8	99.4
Mitchell Juergens	HB	5'10, 182	Jr.	NR	NR	47	28	424	59.6%	10.2%	61.7%	9.0	80	9.1	54.1
Terenn Houk	IR	6'5, 223	Sr.	NR	NR	35	21	241	60.0%	7.6%	45.7%	6.9	-16	7.0	30.8
Paul Lasike	RB					30	25	267	83.3%	6.5%	46.7%	8.9	-22	9.3	34.1
Devin Mahina	TE					29	20	244	69.0%	6.3%	69.0%	8.4	5	8.0	31.1
Colby Pearson	IR	6'0, 191	Jr.	NR	NR	22	16	270	72.7%	4.8%	68.2%	12.3	81	11.9	34.5
Algernon Brown	RB	6'1, 229	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	NR	20	14	139	70.0%	4.3%	65.0%	7.0	-28	7.1	17.7
Devon Blackmon	WR	6'1, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.9772	15	10	130	66.7%	3.2%	46.7%	8.7	10	9.1	16.6
Jamaal Williams	RB	6'0, 206	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8335	11	8	47	72.7%	2.4%	54.5%	4.3	-48	4.1	6.0
Adam Hine	RB	6'1, 208	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8721	9	7	43	77.8%	1.9%	66.7%	4.8	-39	4.6	5.5
Kurt Henderson	WR	6'1, 180	Sr.	NR	NR	8	2	44	25.0%	1.7%	62.5%	5.5	13	5.9	5.6
Ross Apo	WR					8	1	13	12.5%	1.7%	37.5%	1.6	-9	1.1	1.7
Keanu Nelson	WR					7	5	44	71.4%	1.5%	28.6%	6.3	-15	9.2	5.6
Trey Dye	HB	5'9, 175	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8120	3	3	8	100.0%	0.6%	100.0%	2.7	-26	NR	1.0
Jake Ziolkowski	IR	6'0, 195	Jr.	NR	NR
Bryan Sampson	TE	6'4, 221	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8484
Nick Kurtz	WR	6'6, 205	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8705

4. Mitches and other options

Between Hill, Jamaal Williams, and Mitch Mathews, BYU will not lack for senior leadership in the skill corps. Williams, never great and never terrible, has been a steady force for three years, and after averaging 10.2 yards per target as a No. 2 receiver (pre-injury) in 2013, Mathews averaged 8.3 as a heavily targeted go-to last fall.

And it appears there will be plenty of options to keep wear and tear down. Big Algernon Brown is a nice efficiency option in the backfield, Terenn Houck is a decent possession receiver, and Mitchell Juergens was a huge threat down the stretch (last two games: 11 catches, 194 yards).

Add to this group some intriguing newcomers -- four-star JUCO receiver Nick Kurtz, three-star JUCO tight end Bryan Sampson, three-star freshman running backs Charles West and Riley Burt -- and you've got all the weapons Hill might need.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	116	3.18	4.05	43.7%	76.9%	17.6%	86.3	5.6%	9.1%
Rank	18	32	8	22	13	43	87	83	91

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Ryker Mathews	LT	6'6, 320	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.885	22
De'Ondre Wesley	RT					22
Kyle Johnson	LG	6'4, 303	Jr.	NR	NR	20
Solomone Kafu	LG					19
Tejan Koroma	C	6'0, 280	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719	13
Brock Stringham	RG					10
Terrance Alletto	RG					9
Ului Lapuaho	LT	6'7, 333	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8373	8
Brayden Kearsley	RG					5
Tuni Kanuch	RG	6'3, 325	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8484	4
Brad Wilcox	LT	6'7, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8081	0
Manu Mulitalo	LG	6'2, 373	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8410	0
Parker Dawe	C	6'3, 285	Jr.	NR	NR	0
Jaterius Gulley	RG	6'3, 346	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000
Austin Hoyt	OL	6'7, 268	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8549

5. Lose four starters, return four starters

BYU's line situation has been interesting. The Cougars ranked No. 7 in Adj. Line Yards in 2013 and returned nine players with starting experience, but injuries were a catalyst for shuffling in 2014. Some new players were forced into the rotation, and BYU finished with TEN guys with starting experience ... and still ranked 18th in Adj. Line Yards. (The sack rates were bad both years, but that's always going to be the case with Hill running around.)

BYU is in a strange spot: four guys with at least eight career starts are gone, and four return. Depth could be a bigger issue if injuries to players like Ryker Mathews don't subside, but the starting five should be pretty experienced and strong ... whoever's actually on that starting five.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.86	73	IsoPPP+	103.2	58
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.5%	29	Succ. Rt. +	99.6	65
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.9	27	Off. FP+	102.0	38
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	62	Redzone S&P+	98.2	71
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	28.8		ACTUAL	26.0	-2.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	58	58	64	58
RUSHING	20	29	43	23
PASSING	114	79	86	76
Standard Downs		57	67	62
Passing Downs		59	69	59

Q1 Rk	57	1st Down Rk	38
Q2 Rk	84	2nd Down Rk	60
Q3 Rk	34	3rd Down Rk	50
Q4 Rk	32

6. Opponents didn't run if they didn't have to

You weren't getting anywhere quickly if you tried to run. The Cougars allowed six rushes of 20-plus yards, the fewest in the country. They did a good job of preventing opportunities and quickly swallowing up the ones they allowed. They got pushed around in power situations, but that's only so much of a problem if you're shutting down first-and-10 carries.

Opponents knew the path of least resistance was through the air, and they took advantage. The BYU pass rush, so dangerous in recent years, was shaky, especially outside of Bronson Kaufusi. The secondary was relatively dangerous, getting hands on quite a few passes, but without a pass rush, there were easy completions. Even against an active secondary, opponents completed 58 percent.

Granted, there aren't many incredible passing teams on the 2015 schedule, and that could be a boon for BYU's odds of putting together another eight-plus wins. Still, pass defense will likely be a weakness if opponents tire of trying to move the ball with handoffs.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	99.2	2.68	3.10	31.3%	76.1%	20.0%	79.7	4.0%	5.1%
Rank	65	33	45	7	113	55	99	83	108

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Bronson Kaufusi	DE/WLB	6'7, 265	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9279	11	38.5	4.9%	11.5	7.0	0	5	1	0
Logan Taele	DE	6'2, 280	Sr.	NR	NR	12	23.5	3.0%	2.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Travis Tuiloma	NT	6'2, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7889	13	23.0	2.9%	6.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Graham Rowley	DE	6'4, 280	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8780	13	20.0	2.5%	2.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
Remington Peck	DE	6'4, 271	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8389	13	19.0	2.4%	3.0	1.5	0	1	0	0
Marques Johnson	NT					12	14.5	1.8%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tomasi Laulile	DE	6'3, 285	Jr.	NR	NR	13	5.5	0.7%	1.5	0.0	1	0	0	0
Theodore King	DL	6'2, 265	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	1	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kesni Tausinga	NT	6'1, 308	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8432
Isaiah Nacua	DE	6'3, 250	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8582
Tevita Mo'unga	NT	6'3, 300	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8478
Moses Kaumatule	DE	6'1, 254	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8600

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Zac Stout	MLB					12	53.0	6.7%	7.5	1.0	1	1	1	0
Manoa Pikula	BLB	6'1, 239	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8391	13	38.5	4.9%	2.0	0.0	1	1	0	0
Alani Fua	SLB					10	35.0	4.4%	7.5	3.0	2	4	0	0
Jherremya Leuta-Douyere	BLB	6'1, 236	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8056	13	25.5	3.2%	2.0	0.0	0	3	2	0
Michael Alisa	SLB					13	21.0	2.7%	2.0	1.0	1	2	1	0
Fred Warner	SLB	6'3, 220	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8921	10	19.5	2.5%	1.0	0.0	1	1	0	0
Sione Takitaki	WLB	6'2, 240	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8510	11	17.0	2.2%	4.0	3.0	0	0	1	0
Teu Kautai	MLB	6'1, 231	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7889	13	17.0	2.2%	3.0	3.0	0	2	1	0
Austin Heder	MLB	6'2, 234	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8366	10	14.0	1.8%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Harvey Langi	MLB	6'2, 240	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9068	12	12.5	1.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Sae Tautu	SLB	6'3, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8111	12	8.0	1.0%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Troy Hinds	WLB	6'5, 230	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9230	12	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Cook	WLB	6'3, 218	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8478
Lene Lesatele	LB	6'1, 238	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8269
Butch Pauu	LB	6'0, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8581
Rhett Sandlin	LB	6'3, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.7900

7. Find another pass rusher

With Kaufusi at linebacker, linemen combined for just 2.5 sacks. That doesn't cut it, even in a 3-4.

The front seven is going to need to help more on pass defense, as the secondary has been thinned out considerably. Thanks to injuries, quite a few DBs played last year, but of the nine who recorded at least 10 tackles, four return.

So who's it going to be? Remington Peck might have decent pass-rushing potential, but the most intriguing candidate might be sophomore Sione Takitaki, who in limited opportunities recorded three sacks from the WLB position.

If the pass rush is better, the run defense should be all right. Linebackers Zac Stout and Alani Fua (combined: 11 non-sack TFLs) are gone, but play-making tackle Travis Tuiloma's back, and senior LBs Manoa Pikula and Jherremya Leuta-Douyere are steady. Losing Stout and Fua means the same level of run defense isn't guaranteed, but the major questions are still with the pass defense.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Skye PoVey	FS					13	66.5	8.4%	4	1	2	5	0	0
Craig Bills	FS					9	43.0	5.4%	0.5	0	1	2	0	0
Robertson Daniel	CB					12	41.0	5.2%	0	0	1	14	1	0
Michael Davis	CB	6'2, 181	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7785	13	39.5	5.0%	0	0	0	6	0	0
Dallin Leavitt	KAT					11	37.0	4.7%	3.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Kai Nacua	FS	6'1, 207	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7891	13	35.0	4.4%	3.5	0	2	3	0	0
Harvey Jackson	KAT					13	24.5	3.1%	2.5	1	0	5	0	0
Jordan Preator	CB	6'0, 183	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7783	12	21.5	2.7%	2	1	1	9	1	0
Kavika Fonua	FS	6'0, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	11	12.5	1.6%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Johnson	CB					5	7.5	1.0%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Matt Hadley (2012)	DB	6'0, 191	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8292	7	6.0	1.0%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Wadsworth	DB	6'1, 210	Sr.	NR	0.7873	13	5.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chris Badger	FS	6'1, 197	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8641	12	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Garrett Juergens	DB	5'10, 185	Jr.	NR	NR	5	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Micah Hannemann (2012)	CB	6'1, 200	So.	NR	NR	8	1.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Shelton	CB	5'9, 180	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7954
Eric Takenaka	KAT	5'10, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8056
Grant Jones	KAT	6'5, 210	So.	NR	NR
Sawyer Powell	DB	6'1, 203	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8432
Dayan Lake	DB	5'11, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8730
Zayne Anderson	DB	6'2, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8268

8. Young, questionable, and full of options

If you are going to enter a season with few proven options, you might as well bring tons of candidates.

Corners Michael Davis and Jordan Preator showed high-caliber potential, combining for 16 passes defensed, and safeties Kai Nacua and Kavika Fonua got plenty of playing time as underclassmen. Matt Hadley and Micah Hannemann, backups from 2012, are also back. So are some unproven three-star options.

Competition should assure that the starting four is solid. But last year's DBs were more than solid, and BYU ranked 79th in Passing S&P+. If the pass rush doesn't improve, the secondary will have to come up big.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Scott Arellano			69	45.0	2	21	27	69.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Andrew Mikkelsen			72	59.1	17	3	23.6%
Trevor Samson	5'11, 183	Sr.	11	49.4	0	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Trevor Samson	5'11, 183	Sr.	62-63	10-11	90.9%	2-3	66.7%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Adam Hine	KR	6'1, 208	Sr.	22	24.5	1
Mitchell Juergens	KR	5'10, 182	Jr.	5	22.4	0
Devon Blackmon	PR	6'1, 185	Sr.	12	5.7	0
Mitchell Juergens	PR	5'10, 182	Jr.	9	6.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	40
Field Goal Efficiency	43
Punt Return Efficiency	98
Kick Return Efficiency	74
Punt Efficiency	11
Kickoff Efficiency	52
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	65

9. In need of a couple new legs

Despite an only decent return game, special teams were a net benefit for BYU. The return men are back (including Adam Hine, who did score a kick return touchdown), but ace punter Scott Arellano is gone, as is a decent kickoffs guy in Andrew Mikkelsen. Place-kicking won't be a concern with Trevor Samson back, but with a new punter, it might be difficult to finish in the special teams top 40 again.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
5-Sep	at Nebraska	30
12-Sep	Boise State	21
19-Sep	at UCLA	12
26-Sep	at Michigan	54
2-Oct	Connecticut	119
10-Oct	East Carolina	61
16-Oct	Cincinnati	47
24-Oct	Wagner	NR
6-Nov	at San Jose State	116
14-Nov	vs. Missouri	20
21-Nov	Fresno State	102
28-Nov	at Utah State	52

Five-Year F/+ Rk	16.3% (33)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	70 / 70
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-1 / 0.5
2014 TO Luck/Game	-0.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (8, 6)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	8.0 (0.0)

10. September defines the season

There are two ways to look at BYU's schedule:

1. Holy crap, look at those big names early in the year.

2. Holy crap, of all those big names, is there one that can take advantage of BYU's iffy pass defense?

No. 1 tells us a lot of people will be paying attention to BYU in September. No. 2 will determine just how high a profile the Cougars and Hill have when they venture into Mid-Major Land in October. Each of the first four opponents is breaking in either a new coach or quarterback, and while Missouri awaits late, the Tigers are breaking in a brand new receiving corps.

Pass defense and health are the two issues in the way of a brilliant BYU season. Hill is the real deal and has a mix of experience and upside at his disposal. And while the offensive line could suffer injuries again, it's a solid line regardless. Even against the big names, a healthy BYU offense is going to score.

This is a huge year for Mendenhall. This isn't going to be his best team, but it's going to be good enough to play in a lot of close games against a lot of interesting teams. In theory, anything between about 11-1 and 6-6 is possible with a slight variation in quality and luck.

After 2012's "good, but 8-5" season, is this the year the breaks go a little more in BYU's favor?