2015 Syracuse football: Uh-oh

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1. One unit can sink an entire team

The Orange should improve in 2014. The team that won four of its final six returns most of the reasons.

We still don't know about the long-term prognosis. We don't know a ton about Scott Shafer's head coaching potential, and we don't know a ton about what offensive coordinator George McDonald wants to do. But we know that the Orange made a bowl in an inevitable down year, and we know they've got some interesting pieces.

-- The 2014 Syracuse preview

I was half-right.

Scott Shafer, former Stanford, Michigan, and Syracuse defensive coordinator, has engineered a slow-motion defensive renaissance. He inherited a defense that had ranked 86th in Def. S&P+ in 2008, and in four years as Doug Marrone's D.C., his Orange D ranked between 42nd and 63rd. Since he took over as head coach, Syracuse improved to 37th in 2013, then 33rd. His defense has combined big-play prevention with aggression.

His offense has been a disorganized mess. The days of Ryan Nassib throwing to Alec Lemon and Marcus Sales seem like a decade ago. Shafer hired ace recruiter George McDonald away from his post as Arkansas' receivers coach, and he had to give McDonald the offensive coordinator job to do it. But to the extent that McDonald had an offensive philosophy, it didn't really gel with Syracuse's personnel. He appeared to want a pass-first, up-tempo offense, but he had iffy passers and iffy receivers. Syracuse finished 2012 with one of the hottest offenses in the country and ranked 32nd in Off. S&P+ for the season. It fell to 88th in 2013, then 110th last year.

Any hopes for a third consecutive bowl appearance last fall were sabotaged by the offense. Incumbent quarterback Terrel Hunt struggled, then got hurt. New skill-position weapons didn't emerge. McDonald's pace-and-efficiency offense featured the former without much of the latter, which created quick three-and-outs.

After five games in 2014, McDonald was demoted. After the season, he moved to NC State.

Entering his third year, Shafer's Syracuse program is close to a crisis. The defense must replace four of its top five linemen, three of five linebackers, and the top four defensive backs. That means the pressure is on the offense, not only because it just dragged down the ship, but because the D is almost certain to regress.

Shafer's got the pedigree. His recruiting has been decent, and he's proved he has a strong defensive mind. But as with plenty of other defensive coordinators-turned-head coaches, offense is threatening to take him down.

When the season begins, offensive coordinator Tim Lester will have been on the job for about 10 months. They'll get a healthy Terrel Hunt back. We'll see if a more organized offense can help Shafer stave off hot-seat demons. I'm not optimistic.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 3-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 80
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
29-Aug	Villanova	N/A	27-26	W	46%	-2.2	74%
13-Sep	at Central Michigan	85	40-3	W	98%	50.3	100%
20-Sep	Maryland	62	20-34	L	30%	-12.2	7%
27-Sep	vs. Notre Dame	34	15-31	L	25%	-15.5	1%
3-Oct	Louisville	23	6-28	L	40%	-6.1	4%
11-Oct	Florida State	15	20-38	L	32%	-10.7	3%
18-Oct	at Wake Forest	101	30-7	W	64%	8.2	88%
25-Oct	at Clemson	14	6-16	L	35%	-9.0	1%
1-Nov	NC State	55	17-24	L	65%	9.3	47%
8-Nov	Duke	51	10-27	L	44%	-3.8	11%
22-Nov	at Pittsburgh	43	7-30	L	16%	-23.0	0%
29-Nov	at Boston College	36	7-28	L	22%	-17.7	1%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	21.2	110	23.2	33
Points Per Game	17.1	121	24.3	38

2. No chance against good teams

There are two ways to look at last season. On one hand, you could note that the offense started off well (6.1 yards per play in the first 4 games) before cratering (4.2 in the final 8) and that Syracuse went from interesting to awful.

Or you could just note that the Orange were competitive against mediocre teams and woeful against good ones.

• Average Percentile Performance (vs. F/+ top 50): 28% (record: 0-6 | avg. score: Opp 29, Cuse 10)
• Average Percentile Performance (vs. No. 51-plus): 58% (record: 3-3 | avg. score: Cuse 24, Opp 20)

The defense was more successful against lesser teams, as one would expect, but the offense was much more successful.

McDonald's demotion coincided with Hunt's injury, and none of three quarterbacks -- freshman AJ Long, redshirt freshman Austin Wilson, or sophomore Mitch Kimble -- was able to provide competent play. In Hunt's absence, the three combined to complete 52 percent of their passes for four touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and their struggles made it difficult to gauge the potential benefits of changing the offensive coordinator.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.73	122	IsoPPP+	78.7	115
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	35.2%	121	Succ. Rt. +	95.2	86
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	32.0	105	Def. FP+	99.0	77
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.3	123	Redzone S&P+	93.7	82
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.4		ACTUAL	21	+4.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	116	109	89	115
RUSHING	93	86	83	90
PASSING	105	113	92	119
Standard Downs		107	102	110
Passing Downs		106	60	117

Q1 Rk	112	1st Down Rk	98
Q2 Rk	71	2nd Down Rk	114
Q3 Rk	62	3rd Down Rk	98
Q4 Rk	125

3. Wanted: big plays

Whether Hunt was at quarterback, or whether it was a grab bag of not-yet-ready youngsters, big plays were lacking. The Orange did have running backs Prince-Tyson Gulley and Adonis Ameen-Moore, and 17 rushes of 20-plus yards at least ranked in the middle of FBS (60th). But their 29 passes of 20-plus yards ranked 100th.

This was an offense predicated on quick passes to the perimeter, which should provide a high completion rate and the occasional break-one-tackle-and-go big play. But the completion rate was far below average considering the distance of the passes, and the broken tackles never really came.

Tim Lester comes from the Bill Cubit tree -- he was the quarterback when Cubit was tinkering with a newfound spread offense as Western Michigan offensive coordinator in the late-1990s, and he was Cubit's quarterbacks coach at WMU for two years in the mid-2000s. This is his first major coordinator position, but one assumes the tempo-and-short-passing tendencies didn't go out the window when McDonald left town. You have to have the personnel.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
AJ Long	6'0, 177	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8290	89	165	935	4	8	53.9%	17	9.3%	4.5
Terrel Hunt	6'3, 234	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8222	83	145	983	1	4	57.2%	3	2.0%	6.4
Austin Wilson	6'3, 217	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7984	28	50	253	0	4	56.0%	2	3.8%	4.3
Mitch Kimble					6	19	37	0	1	31.6%	1	5.0%	1.7
Kenterius Womack	6'3, 185	Fr.	NR	0.8600
Eric Dungey	6'4, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8434

4. Welcome back, Terrel

Hunt isn't a perfect fit for a pass-first offense. His biggest asset is his ability to distract defenses with his legs -- not including sacks, he rushed about 10 times per game at more than 6.5 yards per carry -- but aside from a tidy performance against Central Michigan (20-for-30 passing, albeit for just 175 yards), Hunt wasn't very accurate. He hinted at accuracy in completing 61 percent in 2013, but he struggled to find a rhythm in 2014.

Still, if you're listing pure offensive assets without worrying about fit or identity, the list basically looks like this:

1. Offensive line
2. Hunt
3. Sophomore receiver Steve Ishmael

Despite woeful short-yardage success, Syracuse's line stats (67th in Adj. Line Yards, 49th in Adj. Sack Rate) were far better than the overall offensive stats. That's a good sign considering six players with starting experience return (90 career starts), even if three-year starting tackle Sean Hickey isn't one.

Lester should use Hunt's legs, especially near the goal line. Syracuse averaged just 3.3 points per scoring opportunity last fall, sixth-worst in the country. Opponent adjustments make that number look a little bit better, but the Orange had no confidence when it came to turning chances into points. With a good line and Hunt, that should be less of an issue, even if the offense isn't creating many chances.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Prince-Tyson Gulley	RB					128	614	1	4.8	6.4	33.6%	2	2
Adonis Ameen-Moore	RB					62	337	1	5.4	5.9	40.3%	0	0
Terrel Hunt	QB	6'3, 234	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8222	49	324	6	6.6	5.5	51.0%	1	1
Ervin Philips	HB	5'11, 179	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8211	45	194	0	4.3	3.2	42.2%	0	0
George Morris II	RB	6'0, 194	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8577	35	101	0	2.9	6.0	17.1%	1	0
Devante McFarlane	RB	6'0, 198	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8590	28	169	0	6.0	11.6	28.6%	0	0
AJ Long	QB	6'0, 177	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8290	28	114	2	4.1	3.0	39.3%	5	1
Mitch Kimble	QB					11	48	1	4.4	2.5	45.5%	1	0
Austin Wilson	QB	6'3, 217	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7984	9	-1	0	-0.1		0.0%	1	0
Dontae Strickland	RB	5'11, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8731
Tyrone Perkins	RB	6'0, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8452

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Jarrod West	WR					76	49	700	64.5%	22.4%	42.1%	9.2	108	9.5	83.1
Ben Lewis	HB	6'2, 208	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926	44	24	275	54.5%	12.9%	38.6%	6.3	-25	6.3	32.6
Steve Ishmael	WR	6'2, 200	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8578	40	27	415	67.5%	11.8%	62.5%	10.4	92	10.3	49.3
Prince-Tyson Gulley	RB					31	21	107	67.7%	9.1%	61.3%	3.5	-144	3.5	12.7
Adrian Flemming	WR					24	13	109	54.2%	7.1%	50.0%	4.5	-54	4.4	12.9
Ashton Broyld	HB	6'3, 221	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8544	23	15	174	65.2%	6.8%	56.5%	7.6	-7	7.5	20.7
Brisly Estime	WR	5'9, 176	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8153	22	10	140	45.5%	6.5%	68.2%	6.4	10	6.5	16.6
Ervin Philips	HB	5'11, 179	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8211	17	15	57	88.2%	5.0%	76.5%	3.4	-115	3.1	6.8
Josh Parris	TE	6'4, 244	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8323	16	9	49	56.3%	4.7%	68.8%	3.1	-63	2.9	5.8
Jamal Custis	WR	6'5, 223	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8473	8	4	15	50.0%	2.4%	50.0%	1.9	-36	1.9	1.8
Devante McFarlane	RB	6'0, 193	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8590	7	4	49	57.1%	2.1%	57.1%	7.0	0	7.0	5.8
Kendall Moore	TE	6'5, 239	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8503	7	4	31	57.1%	2.1%	42.9%	4.4	-18	4.4	3.7
Adonis Ameen-Moore	RB					7	5	22	71.4%	2.1%	57.1%	3.1	-37	3.1	2.6
Sean Avant	WR	5'10, 201	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8099	5	3	21	60.0%	1.5%	100.0%	4.2	-16	N/A	2.5
Alvin Cornelius	WR	6'1, 192	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8111	3	3	42	100.0%	0.9%	33.3%	14.0	8	11.5	5.0
Cameron MacPherson	TE	6'3, 247	Jr.	NR	NR
Tyler Provo	TE	6'2, 223	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8104
Adly Enoicy	WR	6'5, 227	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8537
Trey Dunkelberger	TE	6'4, 230	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8013

5. Size and athleticism? Check.

This offense was desperate for big plays even with Gulley (6.4 highlight yards per opportunity), Ameen-Moore (5.9), and receiver Jarrod West (14.3 yards per catch). Now all three are gone. That's scary.

Between senior George Morris II, junior Devante McFarlane, and freshmen Dontae Strickland and Tyrone Perkins, there might be hope in the backfield -- not all four will be good, but odds are decent that one will be -- but size in the receiving corps could turn into an asset. Each of Syracuse's three leading returning receivers (Ben Lewis, Steve Ishmael, Ashton Broyld) goes at least 6'2 and 200 pounds, and players like tight end Josh Parris (6'4, 244) and redshirt freshman Adly Enoicy (6'5, 227) could play larger roles.

And in Ishmael, the Cuse might have a decent No. 1. The freshman from Miami never got untracked, but after a slow start (six catches for 83 yards in his first five games), Ishmael had some strong moments down the stretch (after Lester took over for McDonald). He had nine catches for 165 yards against Florida State and Wake Forest, then caught six for 97 against Pitt. He and little-used junior Alvin Cornelius finished spring atop the depth chart.

Last fall, "bubble screen" became an expletive for Syracuse fans. Screens and short passes were a McDonald staple, and that can work, but the Orange didn't have the personnel. Lester is promising more downfield looks, and if a running back emerges to form a nice threat with Hunt, that makes sense for taking advantage of a distracted defense. Still, the last system made sense on paper, too.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.9	2.51	3.25	35.8%	51.7%	22.4%	113.2	4.5%	7.1%
Rank	67	111	67	97	124	109	49	61	63

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Sean Hickey	LT					38
Rob Trudo	C	6'4, 307	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8002	33
Ivan Foy	LT	6'5, 276	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7938	23
Nick Robinson	LG	6'6, 292	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7444	20
John Miller	C					10
Omari Palmer	RT	6'3, 303	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726	10
Jason Emerich	C	6'3, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8487	2
Alex Hayes	LG	6'2, 303	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8156	1
Michael Lasker	LT	6'5, 303	Sr.	NR	NR	1
Seamus Shanley	RG	6'1, 276	Sr.	NR	NR	0
Jamar McGloster	RT	6'7, 303	Jr.	NR	NR	0
Jon Burton	RT	6'8, 321	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7926	0
Denzel Ward	LT	6'8, 331	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8578
Aaron Roberts	RG	6'4, 266	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8153
Cody Conway	OL	6'6, 275	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8407
Andrejas Duerig	OL	6'4, 280	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8377

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.74	13	IsoPPP+	113.1	31
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.8%	83	Succ. Rt. +	101.0	58
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	26.2	127	Off. FP+	94.0	123
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.6	7	Redzone S&P+	116.5	21
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.4		ACTUAL	20.0	-0.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	27	46	59	31
RUSHING	31	26	53	10
PASSING	39	76	74	72
Standard Downs		30	56	17
Passing Downs		94	72	92

Q1 Rk	30	1st Down Rk	43
Q2 Rk	69	2nd Down Rk	20
Q3 Rk	11	3rd Down Rk	64
Q4 Rk	39

6. Conservative and disruptive (and starting over)

Syracuse created havoc and prevented big plays. That's not the most common combination.

The Orange almost never allowed big plays on standard downs, and when they either leveraged opponents into passing downs or found their backs against the red zone, they began attacking. The result: lots of sacks (sixth in passing downs sack rate) and lots of stops (seventh in points allowed per scoring opportunity).

After an iffy start, this formula created a stout defense. (The down side: combined with a nonexistent return game, it created sketchy field position for a handicapped offense.) The Orange allowed at least 6.4 yards per play in three of their first six games (against Maryland, Notre Dame, and Florida State) but more than 4.6 just once in the final six.

The passing downs pass rush, long a Shafer strength, thrived. Defenders got hands on passes. Syracuse nearly pulled off a top-30 ranking in Def. S&P+.

One has to figure another slow start is in the works. Syracuse had six players with at least six tackles for loss last year, but five are gone. The Orange had nine players with at least three passes defensed, and seven are gone. Shafer's defensive approach is sound and familiar, but of the 22 players on the post-spring two-deep, 12 were freshmen or sophomores (55 percent). Outside of the defensive line, that percentage rises to 71 percent (10 of 14).

Even with good coaching, youth means mistakes. The aggression might still be there, but there will be more big plays allowed.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	96	2.88	3.11	38.4%	71.1%	19.3%	108.2	3.5%	12.0%
Rank	83	62	46	56	89	66	49	91	6

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Micah Robinson	DE					12	33.5	4.9%	6.0	2.0	0	5	0	1
Eric Crume	NT					11	31.5	4.6%	9.0	2.0	0	4	1	0
Robert Welsh	DE					12	27.5	4.0%	7.0	1.5	1	3	1	0
Ron Thompson	DE	6'3, 255	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8920	12	24.5	3.6%	7.0	3.0	0	5	2	0
Ryan Sloan	DT					8	13.0	1.9%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Wayne Williams	NT	6'4, 325	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8476	5	6.5	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Coleman	NT	6'1, 281	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7969	12	6.0	0.9%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
John Raymon	DT	6'5, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8715	5	5.0	0.7%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Isaiah Johnson	DE					12	4.5	0.7%	2.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Luke Arciniega	DE	6'4, 247	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8215	4	4.0	0.6%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Donnie Simmons	DE	6'2, 258	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8187	11	2.0	0.3%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Rony-Andre Charles	NT	6'2, 309	Sr.	NR	NR
Lucas Albrecht	DT	6'2, 251	Sr.	NR	NR
Chris Slayton	DT	6'4, 289	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8619
Kayton Samuels	NT	6'0, 306	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7983
Qaadir Sheppard	DE	6'2, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8463
Amir Ealey	DE	6'4, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463
Jake Pickard	DE	6'6, 231	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8352

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Cameron Lynch	WLB					12	83.0	12.2%	12.0	7.0	0	3	1	0
Dyshawn Davis	SLB					12	62.0	9.1%	6.0	0.0	0	2	3	0
Zaire Franklin	MLB	6'0, 231	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8550	12	37.5	5.5%	5.0	2.0	0	2	1	0
Marqez Hodge	WLB	5'11, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8214	9	33.5	4.9%	5.5	3.0	0	0	0	1
Josh Kirkland	SLB					12	19.5	2.9%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Oliver Vigille	SLB	6'2, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8216	11	5.5	0.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jonathan Thomas	SLB	6'1, 205	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8596	9	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Parris Bennett	SLB	6'0, 216	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8308	8	3.5	0.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Alryk Perry	WLB	6'1, 215	So.	NR	NR
Colton Moskal	MLB	6'0, 212	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8172
Ted Taylor	LB	6'0, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8100
Troy Henderson Jr.	LB	6'1, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8407

7. Wanted: playmakers

End Ron Thompson combined seven tackles for loss with five breakups. Linebackers Zaire Franklin and Marqez Hodge combined for 10.5 tackles for loss and five sacks. Big John Raymon hinted at explosiveness -- he made only five tackles in five games after returning ahead of schedule from a knee injury, but two were behind the line.

There are some exciting components in the front seven, which should be comprised of an interesting mix of upperclassmen (Simmons, Raymon, nose tackle Wayne Williams) and fresh faces (redshirt freshmen Kayton Samuels and Chris Slayton, sophomores Franklin, Parris Bennett, and Jonathan Thomas). There is both experience and opportunity for incoming freshmen like ends Amir Ealey and Jake Pickard.

But in terms of playmaking, the bar is awfully high. Last year's front seven combined for 72 tackles for loss, 24.5 sacks, and 25 passes defensed. Only 37 percent of the TFLs, 45 percent of the sacks, and 28 percent of the PDs return.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Durell Eskridge	FS					12	57.5	8.4%	0	0	1	3	0	0
Darius Kelly	SS					12	50.0	7.3%	2	0	1	4	1	0
Ritchy Desir	SS					12	50.0	7.3%	0	0	0	1	1	0
Brandon Reddish	CB					12	37.5	5.5%	4	1	3	3	1	0
Julian Whigham	CB	6'1, 187	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8016	11	24.5	3.6%	1.5	1.5	1	2	0	0
Corey Winfield	CB	6'1, 181	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7988	12	13.5	2.0%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Antwan Cordy	SS	5'8, 178	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7800	11	7.5	1.1%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Wayne Morgan	CB	5'11, 187	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8994	3	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chauncey Scissum	FS	6'2, 206	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8259	12	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rodney Williams	FS	5'10, 189	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7964	2	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Eric Jackson	CB	5'9, 170	Sr.	NR	NR
Eric Anthony	SS	6'0, 194	Jr.	NR	NR
Juwan Dowels	CB	5'10, 179	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8308
Cordell Hudson	CB	5'11, 175	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8145
Marquise Blair	DB	6'4, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8690
Christopher Fredrick	DB	6'0, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8342
Daivon Ellison	DB	5'7, 164	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8234

8. Wanted: safeties

Syracuse spent time in the nickel, and it made sense, with a trio of experienced safeties. Durell Eskridge, Darius Kelly, and Ritchy Desir weren't incredible playmakers, but they were play-preventers, and they freed up the front seven to take risks. All three are gone, as is top cornerback Brandon Reddish.

The cornerback position seems reasonably well-stocked, with seniors Julian Whigham and Wayne Morgan and sophomore Corey Winfield. They are not amazing, but they're sound.

But the safety position might preclude Shafer from taking quite as many risks. At the end of the spring, sophomore Antwan Cordy was the first-stringer at strong safety while sophomore Chauncey Scissum and redshirt freshman Rodney Williams were co-starters at free safety. That might mean exciting things for 2016 and 2017, but it might be a scary proposition this fall.

Syracuse's defense pulled off a precarious balance in 2014, mixing bend-don't-break with the ability to make explosive plays. A younger 'Cuse defense might still be able to make some aggressive plays, but risk probably won't bring quite as much reward this time around.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Riley Dixon	6'5, 222	Sr.	75	42.4	4	27	23	66.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Cole Murphy	6'3, 191	So.	45	58.6	9	4	20.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Cole Murphy	6'3, 191	So.	11-12	8-10	80.0%	5-6	83.3%
Ryan Norton	5'11, 186	Sr.	9-9	4-5	80.0%	0-2	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Ervin Philips	KR	5'11, 179	So.	25	19.0	0
Prince-Tyson Gulley	KR			5	19.6	0
Ritchy Desir	PR			8	8.9	0
Brisly Estime	PR	5'9, 176	Jr.	6	9.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	105
Field Goal Efficiency	59
Punt Return Efficiency	84
Kick Return Efficiency	115
Punt Efficiency	79
Kickoff Efficiency	99
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	108

9. Wanted: a return man

When your offense is inefficient, your defense bends before making stops, and your special teams stinks, you are virtually guaranteed to be a field position disaster. Sure enough, Syracuse's field position margin was a ghastly minus-5.8 yards per possession, 124th in the country and worst among power-conference teams.

Place-kicking seems to be in decent hands with sophomore Cole Murphy, but the field position components, the kicks and returns, are in no way guaranteed to improve. Murphy's kickoffs weren't that deep, opponents averaged 14.3 yards per punt return (122nd in the country), and the return game appears to still be lacking unless a freshman or redshirt freshman emerges. So ... don't expect miraculous improvement here.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
4-Sep	Rhode Island	NR
12-Sep	Wake Forest	89
19-Sep	Central Michigan	91
26-Sep	LSU	8
10-Oct	at South Florida	90
17-Oct	at Virginia	46
24-Oct	Pittsburgh	38
31-Oct	at Florida State	17
7-Nov	at Louisville	32
14-Nov	Clemson	15
21-Nov	at N.C. State	48
28-Nov	Boston College	49

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-1.7% (62)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	60 / 68
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-1 / 4.0
2014 TO Luck/Game	-2.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	9 (7, 2)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	3.4 (-0.4)

10. It's hard to improve when your good unit loses this much

Syracuse's defense tried its best while the offense and special teams sabotaged every opportunity. An unpopular offensive coordinator was replaced mid-season, and the offense got worse (granted, with help from injuries); the offense should get more stable at quarterback but loses every decent big-play threat. And now the defense is going to feature about nine new starters.

When you finish 3-9 and rank 80th in F/+, it's hard to worry about turnover in personnel. Some new blood might not be a bad thing. Younger players like receiver Steve Ishmael, linebacker Zaire Franklin, and safety Antwan Cordy could turn out to be difference-makers.

Still, it's hard to believe odds are in Syracuse's favor. And in the 2015 ACC with its tons of top-50 squads, if the Orange improve, they'll still struggle to locate six wins. Even a 4-1 start might result in a 5-7 finish.

Long-term, you can see Shafer continuing to field strong defenses at Syracuse. But if this defense experiences a setback, the offense might not save the day, and this season could spiral on Shafer. Syracuse was just starting to build momentum under Doug Marrone, but he didn't leave a stocked cupboard. Shafer hasn't done much with what he found.