NC State can be a 2015 ACC dark horse, but has big issues to fix first

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1. Well done. Now do it again.

This is how it's supposed to work. You shift around the pieces in your first year, and you maybe take a slight step backward. Then, in your second year, you take a definitive step forward.

NC State found itself in Glen Mason territory at the end of the Tom O'Brien era. Despite winning 24 games in three seasons (2010-12) -- a three-year win total the program hadn't exceeded since 2001-03 -- the Wolfpack were slipping and decided to cut bait. Despite pulling off four bowl bids in five years, O'Brien's squad had fallen from 22nd in the F/+ ratings in 2010 to the 60s and 70s. Winning should never be taken for granted in Raleigh, but there was justification.

Dave Doeren walked in the door and went 3-9 with a No. 92 ranking in his first season. The defense slipped, the offense remained bad, and against a brutal schedule that featured nine bowl-eligible teams and four 10-game winners, the Wolfpack were rarely competitive.

Quite a few second-year coaches made noise last year, but NC State's was some of the most significant. The defense remained mediocre, but the offense, with a clear identity under quarterback and Florida transfer Jacoby Brissett, leaped.

The Wolfpack won their first four games and four of their last five, and despite a massive October funk, they averaged at least 6 yards per play in eight games after doing it twice the year before. The offense was young enough to return nearly every starter, too, at least until a couple of unexpected receiver transfers.

After a Year 0 situation, followed by second-year progression, Doeren's renovation is right on schedule. But in the ACC, home of seemingly every No. 25-50 team in the country, State progressed into a quagmire. It's one thing to catch back up to the Dukes and Miamis and Pitts -- now how do you surpass them?

The Pack are in the wrong division for title aspirations -- instead of figuring out how to maneuver past Georgia Tech and Duke, they're still looking up at Florida State, Clemson, and Louisville. But if you're a State fan, you can be forgiven for taking newfound optimism for a spin.

What if the lines hold up despite turnover? What if Brissett and a nice stable of running backs become even more dangerous? What if the defense, in its third year under coordinator Dave Huxtable, clicks into place? You've got Louisville and Clemson at home, and Florida State's retooling, and the trip to Virginia Tech doesn't look as scary ... might the pieces be in place for a run?

Probably not. Then again, part of being a dark horse is that you don't really see the run coming before it comes. That you could go down that road with just a little bit of optimism is a sign that Doeren's second year went pretty well.

But so did Larry Fedora's at UNC. His Heels lost a few defenders and plummeted in Year 3. The challenges never actually stop.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 7-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 55
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Georgia Southern	57	24-23	W	74%	15.1	63%
6-Sep	Old Dominion	108	46-34	W	79%	18.9	98%
13-Sep	at South Florida	123	49-17	W	93%	33.9	100%
20-Sep	Presbyterian	N/A	42-0	W	87%	26.4	100%
27-Sep	Florida State	15	41-56	L	41%	-5.2	21%
4-Oct	at Clemson	14	0-41	L	1%	-51.6	0%
11-Oct	Boston College	36	14-30	L	21%	-19.1	3%
18-Oct	at Louisville	23	18-30	L	45%	-2.8	21%
1-Nov	at Syracuse	80	24-17	W	38%	-7.2	53%
8-Nov	Georgia Tech	8	23-56	L	14%	-25.3	0%
15-Nov	Wake Forest	101	42-13	W	88%	27.5	100%
29-Nov	at North Carolina	70	35-7	W	93%	35.3	100%
26-Dec	vs. Central Florida	60	34-27	W	82%	21.4	91%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	32.1	43	28.1	64
Points Per Game	30.2	58	27.0	66

2. 3 seasons

If your season percentile chart looks like either Shruggy or the Wu-Tang Clan logo, you were dealing with a wide range of emotions.

NC State's 2014 began about as well as one could have imagined. After surviving a Georgia Southern team that was much better than we knew, the Wolfpack plowed through Old Dominion, USF, and Presbyterian and jumped to a 24-7 first-quarter lead on defending champion Florida State.

Then, over the next 15 quarters, they were outscored by a 150-49 margin.

After a couple more sketchy performances, the rally was strong. Against Wake Forest, UNC, and UCF, the Pack averaged 6.6 yards per play and allowed 3.8, playing at a top-15 level and finishing with a three-game win streak.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 4 games): 83% (~top 25 | record: 4-0)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 6 games): 27% (~top 95 | record: 1-5)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 3 games): 88% (~top 15 | record: 3-0)

There was no clear reason for the midseason funk. Brissett didn't miss time, nor did any major skill contributors. Left guard Joe Thuney missed four games (including FSU, Clemson, and BC) with illness, which meant freshman Tony Adams, but while that could be a source of regression, that shouldn't have meant total collapse.

Regardless, a collapse it was. Inconsistency is to be expected when a team is breaking in a new quarterback with receiving corps full of freshmen and sophomores, and the rebound gave rise to severe optimism, at least on one side of the ball.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.83	77	IsoPPP+	125.9	21
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	49.0%	9	Succ. Rt. +	114.2	24
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.7	42	Def. FP+	100.0	65
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.1	11	Redzone S&P+	125.8	9
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.0		ACTUAL	15	-4.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	60	19	19	21
RUSHING	39	3	8	8
PASSING	84	43	46	49
Standard Downs		10	17	9
Passing Downs		47	37	65

Q1 Rk	12	1st Down Rk	29
Q2 Rk	57	2nd Down Rk	29
Q3 Rk	9	3rd Down Rk	18
Q4 Rk	45

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Jacoby Brissett	6'4, 235	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9404	221	370	2606	23	5	59.7%	28	7.0%	6.0
Garrett Leatham					1	6	8	0	1	16.7%	0	0.0%	1.3
Jalan McClendon	6'5, 208	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8996
Jakobi Meyers	6'2, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8038

3. A QB-friendly system and friendly results

Matt Canada tends to know what he's doing. The Wolfpack coordinator was an O.C. throughout the Midwest -- Butler (1997), two stints at NIU, Indiana, one year at Wisconsin -- and he has been pretty good at setting up a logical structure that puts talented players in position to succeed.

His four years at Indiana (2007-10) produced decent results with less-than-decent talent (IU ranked between 51st and 71st in Off. S&P+), his 2011 NIU thrived (21st), and his 2012 Wisconsin offense held steady (25th). Over the last decade, 2013 was the first year that he was at the helm of a simply bad offense. But with Brissett, he started to push the right buttons again last fall.

There are two ways you can handle a quarterback who is skilled running the ball but inconsistent as a passer. Either you decide to throw as little as possible, or you try to take advantage of down, distance, and defensive tendency. Canada aimed for the latter, and it worked.

State threw 5 percent more than the national average on standard downs and ran 4 percent more than average on passing downs. Knowing that the Wolfpack had run threats, defenses were always geared to stop that on standard downs, and this opened up short-passing and play-action options. Brissett had a 144.4 passer rating on first downs and a 190.9 rating on third-and-short, and Canada worked this advantage.

Meanwhile, forcing the defense to mind the pass and stealing yards on second-and-long meant excellent things for the run game. Brissett averaged 7.7 yards per carry, not including sacks (of which there were quite a few), and for the first time in years, the running backs were effective. The trio of Shadrach Thornton, Matt Dayes, and Tony Creecy combined to average 5.5 yards per carry over about 25 carries per game.

If your QB is just good enough at throwing the ball to steal the yards the defense is giving out, then Canada's approach is a sound one. And Brissett was good enough.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Shadrach Thornton	RB	6'1, 218	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8659	164	907	9	5.5	4.2	47.6%	3	1
Matt Dayes	RB	5'9, 203	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8346	105	573	8	5.5	5.6	40.0%	2	0
Jacoby Brissett	QB	6'4, 235	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9404	96	740	3	7.7	6.0	58.3%	10	7
Tony Creecy	RB					52	282	2	5.4	4.9	40.4%	0	0
Jaylen Samuels	TE	5'11, 236	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8188	17	128	1	7.5	6.4	64.7%	0	0
Bryan Underwood	WR					11	96	1	8.7	15.2	45.5%	0	0
Dakwa Nichols	RB	5'9, 195	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8054	11	66	0	6.0	4.1	45.5%	0	0
Bra'Lon Cherry	WR	5'11, 191	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8066	6	40	2	6.7	4.2	50.0%	1	0
Josh Taylor	QB	5'11, 189	Jr.	NR	NR	4	28	0	7.0	1.6	100.0%	0	0
Johnny Frasier	RB	5'11, 225	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9610
Nyheim Hines	RB	5'9, 186	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9460
Reggie Gallaspy II	RB	5'11, 209	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8736

4. Years since NC State had a good running game: 0

This is my fifth year writing this preview series, and 2015 marks the first time I'm previewing a State offense that actually ran the ball well the year before. That Wolfpack backs averaged 5.5 yards per carry last year was incredible -- it had been since 2008 since Pack RBs averaged 4.4.

The addition of Brissett apparently changed everything. Brissett is a load in the open field, and he carried just enough (about 7.4 times per game, not including sacks) to give defenses too many threats to mind. It helped to turn Shadrach Thornton into one of the country's most efficient backs (48 percent of his carries gained at least five yards), and it gave speedy Matt Dayes more chances in the open field. And utilizing a unique weapon in fullback/H-Back/tight end Jaylen Samuels a couple of times per game further frayed defenses.

With Brissett, Thornton, Dayes, and Samuels back, not to mention four linemen with starting experience (72 career starts), it does appear the running game is loaded again. If the passing game can survive the loss of its top two targets and still steal free yards from defenses gearing up to stop the run, this should be another prolific year.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Bo Hines	WR-F					61	45	616	73.8%	16.8%	60.7%	10.1	85	10.0	90.5
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR-Z					50	22	257	44.0%	13.7%	62.0%	5.1	-32	5.0	37.7
Matt Dayes	RB	5'9, 203	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8346	44	32	321	72.7%	12.1%	65.9%	7.3	-57	7.6	47.2
Bra'Lon Cherry	WR-F	5'11, 191	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8066	42	27	354	64.3%	11.5%	78.6%	8.4	28	7.6	52.0
David Grinnage	TE	6'5, 265	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8502	39	28	370	71.8%	10.7%	56.4%	9.5	38	9.5	54.4
Johnathan Alston	WR-Z	6'0, 203	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8660	39	21	224	53.8%	10.7%	66.7%	5.7	-39	5.8	32.9
Shadrach Thornton	RB	6'1, 218	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8659	20	15	133	75.0%	5.5%	70.0%	6.7	-43	7.0	19.5
Bryan Underwood	WR-Z					18	5	98	27.8%	4.9%	55.6%	5.4	22	5.5	14.4
Tyler Purvis	FB					14	10	75	71.4%	3.8%	57.1%	5.4	-44	5.4	11.0
Stephen Louis	WR-Z	6'2, 210	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8052	12	7	72	58.3%	3.3%	83.3%	6.0	-14	6.6	10.6
Jaylen Samuels	TE	5'11, 236	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8188	7	6	96	85.7%	1.9%	42.9%	13.7	27	14.6	14.1
Tony Creecy	RB					7	4	16	57.1%	1.9%	28.6%	2.3	-33	3.2	2.4
NaQuan Brown	WR	6'1, 203	Sr.	NR	NR	4	1	5	25.0%	1.1%	50.0%	1.3	-11	1.4	0.7
Jumichael Ramos	WR-X	6'2, 199	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8216	2	1	7	50.0%	0.5%	50.0%	3.5	-6	3.0	1.0
Benson Browne	TE	6'5, 270	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8279	2	0	0	0.0%	0.5%	100.0%	0.0	-3	N/A	0.0
Maurice Morgan	WR-X	6'3, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8106
Josh Sessoms	WR-X	6'2, 202	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8382
Cole Cook	TE	6'6, 250	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8550
Gavin Locklear	WR-F	5'10, 186	So.	NR	NR
Elliott Davis	WR-Z	6'1, 185	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8048
Maurice Trowell	WR-Z	5'11, 191	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8207
Freddie Simmons	WR	6'3, 176	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8513

5. Untimely departures

When the season ended, it appeared that not only was State returning its quarterback and top two running backs, but also its top seven receiving options. Bo Hines had come out of nowhere to average 10.1 yards per target as a true freshman, and sophomore possession man Marquez Valdes-Scantling had emerged as the No. 2 guy. Combined with juniors-to-be Bra'Lon Cherry and Johnathan Alston, tight end David Grinnage and solid receiving threats out of the backfield, the receiving corps was completely intact.

Hines shocked the world by announcing he was transferring to Yale. Valdes-Scantling left as well. Valdes-Scantling was replaceable (in fact, backup Z receiver Johnathan Alston nearly matched his production in 11 fewer targets), but Hines had come up huge; he caught eight passes for 103 yards against Florida State and a combined four for 110 against BC and Louisville, and he had three big catches for 79 yards in the bowl win. He caught only one touchdown, but touchdowns are an overrated evaluator -- Hines was good.

The corps is still dangerous, but it's less proven. Bra'Lon Cherry took a nice step forward, and Grinnage and Samuels combined to average 10.1 yards per target in about four targets per game. If one more threat emerges, be it Alston or sophomore Stephen Louis or a newcomer, the passing game should have enough weapons to play its part.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	120.9	3.3	3.66	47.9%	74.0%	14.6%	77.9	5.3%	11.2%
Rank	9	23	30	6	20	11	106	80	115

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Quinton Schooley	C	6'4, 298	Sr.	NR	NR	25
Tyson Chandler	RT					25
Rob Crisp	LT					23
Joe Thuney	LG	6'5, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7600	21
Alex Barr	RT	6'8, 318	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8056	18
Tony Adams	RG	6'2, 300	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8339	8
Andy Jomantas	LT					1
Bryce Kennedy	LG	6'3, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8759	0
John Tu'uta	C	6'3, 280	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8223	0
Tylar Reagan	RT	6'5, 287	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8547	0
Tyler Jones	LT	6'3, 290	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8575
Will Richardson	LT	6'6, 315	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8732
Terronne Prescod	RG	6'5, 338	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8432
Daris Workman	OT	6'6, 280	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8332
T.J. McCoy	C	6'1, 314	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8202
Emanuel McGirt Jr.	OT	6'5, 285	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9109

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.85	66	IsoPPP+	100.9	62
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.2%	66	Succ. Rt. +	95.0	88
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.5	82	Off. FP+	98.0	88
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.5	74	Redzone S&P+	101.1	60
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.4		ACTUAL	20.0	-3.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	47	62	78	62
RUSHING	67	91	100	85
PASSING	31	48	56	43
Standard Downs		62	88	55
Passing Downs		87	66	90

Q1 Rk	114	1st Down Rk	65
Q2 Rk	34	2nd Down Rk	26
Q3 Rk	40	3rd Down Rk	65
Q4 Rk	78

6. A 4-2-5 with obvious benefits and drawbacks

The offense broke through; can the defense do the same in 2015? Signs point to no.

Actually, signs point to volatility. Dave Huxtable has installed a 4-2-5 defense, and while a permanent nickel can be devastating in the right hands (i.e., TCU's), it introduces obvious strengths and weaknesses if you don't have the right personnel.

By sacrificing a linebacker for a fifth defensive back, you're adding speed and subtracting size, and you're putting a lot of pressure on your line to stand up to run blocking. You're adding a potential attacking option while risking getting pushed over.

NC State's line didn't do a good job of holding up. The Wolfpack had a solid pass rush and stuffed a few runs in the backfield, but they had one of the worst short-yardage units in the country, and if runners got past the line (which was a bit too easy to do), they ran a long way. The Pack ranked a healthy 28th in allowing only 96 passes of 10-plus yards but ranked 95th in allowing 78 such runs.

It's looking like a "strength gets stronger, weakness gets weaker" situation. Seven of the top eight tacklers from a disruptive secondary return, as does middle linebacker Jerod Fernandez, who played passing lanes well. After ranking 48th in Passing S&P+ last year, it's conceivable that State could rise into the top 40 in 2015.

Meanwhile, the run defense might get worse. The Pack ranked 91st in Rushing S&P+ and must now replace their top two defensive tackles, two of their top three ends, and run-stuffing linebacker Rodman Noel, who led the team with 11 non-sack tackles for loss.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	93	2.87	3.22	39.0%	76.9%	20.8%	111.5	5.7%	7.9%
Rank	94	59	58	65	118	45	38	42	55

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Mike Rose	DE	6'3, 270	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8428	13	37.5	5.2%	14.0	5.0	0	2	2	0
Thomas Teal	DT					13	37.5	5.2%	8.0	3.0	0	0	2	0
T.Y. McGill	DT					11	29.5	4.1%	8.0	3.0	0	1	1	0
B.J. Hill	DT	6'4, 300	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8349	12	29.0	4.0%	6.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Art Norman	DE					13	24.5	3.4%	9.0	6.5	0	0	0	0
Kentavius Street	DT	6'2, 290	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9506	12	15.5	2.1%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Monty Nelson	DT	6'2, 310	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8535	6	11.0	1.5%	1.5	1.0	0	0	1	0
Drew Davis	DE					11	10.5	1.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kenton Gibbs	DT	6'2, 300	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8543	10	9.0	1.2%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Pharoah McKever	DE	6'6, 290	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8200	10	8.5	1.2%	3.0	1.0	1	0	1	0
Justin Jones	DT	6'2, 300	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8736	10	7.0	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Bradley Chubb	DE	6'4, 260	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8539	11	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Mike Rose	DE	6'3, 271	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8428
Deonte Holden	DE	6'4, 240	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8472
Deshaywn Middleton	DT	6'2, 300	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8422
Coult Culler	DT	6'5, 280	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8404
Hampton Billips	DE	6'7, 247	RSFr.	NR	NR
Darian Roseboro	DE	6'4, 280	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9478
Tyrone Riley	DE	6'6, 240	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8544
Emmanuel Olenga	DE	6'4, 241	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8489
Quentez Johnson	DT	6'4, 310	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8460

7. A big line that played light

NC State has plenty of size. The top three returning ends average 6'4, 273, and the top five returning tackles average a road-grading 6'2, 300.

But the scheme did the Pack no favors, and injuries and shuffling didn't help -- of the 12 linemen who saw a decent amount of the field, only three played in all 12 games. Plus, six were freshmen. The result: a disorganized line that couldn't play as big as its size and couldn't make life easier for its linebackers.

The good thing about shuffling is that it creates experience. The Pack must replace four players who made at least 10.5 tackles last year but return four more and get back six pretty well-acclimated sophomores. Plus, there are some exciting reinforcements; among them: blue-chip freshman Darian Roseboro, who was listed as an end during recruiting but, at 280 pounds, could be used in a flexible way throughout the line.

The line has all the options in the world, and while that doesn't make for improvement, it helps the odds.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Rodman Noel	WLB					13	60.0	8.3%	12.0	1.0	1	2	1	0
Jerod Fernandez	MLB	6'0, 231	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8237	12	55.0	7.6%	3.0	0.0	2	3	0	0
Brandon Pittman	WLB					12	30.5	4.2%	4.5	3.0	0	0	1	0
Airius Moore	WLB	6'0, 232	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8444	13	29.0	4.0%	3.5	1.0	0	0	1	0
M.J. Salahuddin (2013)	MLB	6'2, 227	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8287	12	16.5	2.6%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ernie Robinson	WLB	6'1, 229	Jr.	NR	NR	9	3.0	0.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Artemis Robinson	MLB	6'0, 225	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7830
Ford Howell	MLB	6'1, 240	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8273
Riley Nicholson	WLB	6'0, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8464

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Hakim Jones	FS	6'2, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7700	13	63.5	8.7%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Josh Jones	SS	6'2, 215	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8506	12	49.0	6.7%	1	1	4	7	0	0
Dravious Wright	NB	5'10, 208	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8155	13	47.5	6.5%	5	1	0	1	2	0
Jack Tocho	CB	6'0, 198	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.7993	13	36.5	5.0%	0	0	1	11	0	0
Germaine Pratt	FS	6'3, 234	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8809	13	26.5	3.6%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Juston Burris	CB	6'1, 207	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8074	13	25.5	3.5%	1	0	1	5	0	0
Tim Buckley	NB					11	19.5	2.7%	2	0	0	1	0	0
Shawn Boone	SS	5'10, 194	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8432	13	12.5	1.7%	0.5	0	0	1	1	0
Niles Clark	CB	5'11, 186	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8397	13	9.0	1.2%	1	0	0	3	0	0
Jarvis Byrd	SS					9	5.5	0.8%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Mike Stevens	CB	5'11, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8056	11	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Malcolm Means	CB	6'1, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8023	12	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Troy Vincent, Jr.	CB	5'10, 199	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8813	8	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Sean Paul	CB	5'11, 190	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8374
Kalen McCain	SS	6'2, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8545
Dexter Wright	FS	6'2, 232	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8101
Freddie Phillips, Jr.	NB	6'1, 192	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8389
James Smith-Williams	NB	6'4, 217	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8270

8. The secondary could be dynamite

State does have to replace its best pass-rushing end (Art Norman) and best blitzer (WLB Brandon Pittman), which, if added to a run defense that is still below average, could put too much pressure on the defensive backs.

But if they face plenty of passing downs, and if quarterbacks don't have a consistently clean pocket on those standard downs, the secondary could make plenty of plays. Goodness knows it did last year.

I talk about the size differences involved in the 4-3 vs. the 4-2-5, but Dravious Wright helps to minimize them. At 5'10, 208 pounds, he would be only slightly undersized as a strongside linebacker, and he proved last year that he's right at home in the backfield, making five tackles for loss. Combine him with a soon-to-be stud in safety Josh Jones (11 passes defensed as a freshman) and aggressive corners Jack Tocho, Juston Burris, and Niles Clark (combined: 21 passes defensed), and you've got a hell of a secondary. It just can't be asked to make all the plays.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Wil Baumann			60	45.4	4	17	23	66.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Niklas Sade			74	63.6	47	0	63.5%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Niklas Sade			46-48	6-8	75.0%	6-9	66.7%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Matt Dayes	KR	5'9, 203	Jr.	21	18.3	0
Dakwa Nichols	KR	5'9, 195	So.	11	19.7	0
Bo Hines	PR			9	3.4	0
Bra'Lon Cherry	PR	5'11, 191	Jr.	6	5.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	34
Field Goal Efficiency	40
Punt Return Efficiency	101
Kick Return Efficiency	65
Punt Efficiency	10
Kickoff Efficiency	42
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	85

9. A new set of legs

NC State ranked 11th in the country in points per scoring opportunity (5.08) and a decent 57th in field position margin (plus-0.8 yards per possession) despite a bad run defense and subpar return game. That tells you the legs did their jobs. State ranked 10th in Punt Efficiency, 40th in Field Goal Efficiency (which feels low considering Niklas Sade was 6-for-9 on 40-plus field goals), and 42nd in Kickoff Efficiency. Sade and punter Wil Baumann were among the most reliable players on the team.

Now they're both gone. Scary. The offense should still carry its field position weight by remaining efficient, but the defense will likely have to pick up the slack for lesser legs.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
5-Sep	Troy	124
12-Sep	Eastern Kentucky	NR
19-Sep	at Old Dominion	110
26-Sep	at South Alabama	98
3-Oct	Louisville	32
9-Oct	at Virginia Tech	26
24-Oct	at Wake Forest	89
31-Oct	Clemson	15
7-Nov	at Boston College	49
14-Nov	at Florida State	17
21-Nov	Syracuse	73
28-Nov	North Carolina	44

Five-Year F/+ Rk	0.2% (57)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	39 / 51
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	5 / 4.4
2014 TO Luck/Game	+0.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (7, 8)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	7.5 (0.5)

10. A fast start, and then who knows?

NC State has a stratified schedule -- six opponents projected in the top 50, six projected 73rd or worse, and none in between. If we forecast slight improvement and assume they end up ranking between about 45th and 55th, then the schedule should assure a second straight bowl game and, with good home performance, perhaps an improvement over last year's 7-5 regular season.

Having that in your back pocket is nice, but if State fancies something greater, the start is key. You can't slip up against decent Old Dominion or South Alabama teams on the road, and you need to take down a potentially strong Louisville to start ACC play. Head to Blacksburg at 5-0, and you'll be getting "ACC contender?" hype.

* Seriously? State's playing at ODU and at USA? That's a Wake Forestish thing to do. Stop that.

NC State is most likely going to be the fourth-best team in a three-team ACC Atlantic race, but the gamble of replacing decent-not-great Tom O'Brien with hopes of something bigger started to pay off last year. And with just a little bit of improvement in the trenches, maybe it starts to pay off significantly.