Al Golden hasn't restored Miami's dynasty, but he's actually doing a decent job

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1. Progress vs. greatness

At a school with less of a history, Al Golden would be on track.

His program dealt with a long NCAA investigation and self-imposed sanctions from basically the moment he walked in the door, then began to rebound. It bottomed out in his second year, going 7-5 and ranking 60th in the F/+ ratings. In his third year, it improved to 42nd. In his fourth, 31st.

For the first time since his predecessor's last year, his team fielded a top-50 defense, and last year his team was held back by youth, awful turnovers luck (minus-3.4 points per game), close-game issues (0-2 in one-possession games, 0-4 in games decided by 11 or fewer points), and a late-season collapse.

By most standards, Golden is doing an acceptable job. His 28-22 record through four years is equal to Steve Spurrier's first four at South Carolina and ahead of Mike Gundy's at Oklahoma State (27-23), Gary Pinkel's at Missouri (22-25), and Kirk Ferentz's at Iowa (22-26). Including Golden, none of these did much more in his first four years than the program had done in its preceding four.

But Miami doesn't compare itself to South Carolina, Oklahoma State, Missouri, or Iowa. This is The U. Though success is getting further in the rear view, the Hurricanes have won five national titles in the last 32 years. Alabama can't claim that. Neither can Florida State, Ohio State, or USC. If you define the time period a certain way, the Hurricanes are still royalty. And seven wins per season, even during a cleanup, is not to be tolerated.

Figuring out Miami's place in today's landscape is both fascinating and impossible. The success of the '80s was a long time ago, and the program's fade was established before Golden came to town. Miami went 25-12 in Larry Coker's final three seasons, then 28-23 under Randy Shannon.

Even including the brief golden era of the Butch Davis and Coker years, Miami has only four 10-win seasons in the last 20 years -- one fewer than Missouri, as many as Iowa, and one more than South Carolina and Oklahoma State. No matter how good those 2000-03 squads were (and holy moly, were they awesome), 2003 was a while ago.

At what point do you lose your claim to automatic greatness? At what point are you forced to take a slow road back? While Golden has proved he's not capable of the former, he might still be on track for the latter.

Miami's win total regressed in 2014, but the Hurricanes got closer to becoming a complete team; they found their quarterback of the future, took a few steps forward defensively, and signed another solid recruiting classes. But it seems a foregone conclusion that this is Golden's final season at Sun Life Stadium. Is that a mistake? And can Golden's Hurricanes make something of 2015 despite the negative sentiment?

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-7 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 31
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
1-Sep	at Louisville	23	13-31	L	47%	-1.6	13%
6-Sep	Florida A&M	N/A	41-7	W	91%	30.8	100%
13-Sep	Arkansas State	66	41-20	W	97%	43.8	100%
20-Sep	at Nebraska	30	31-41	L	62%	7.2	35%
27-Sep	Duke	51	22-10	W	94%	36.3	99%
4-Oct	Georgia Tech	8	17-28	L	54%	2.3	23%
11-Oct	Cincinnati	47	55-34	W	99%	52.4	100%
23-Oct	at Virginia Tech	33	30-6	W	99%	52.3	100%
1-Nov	North Carolina	70	47-20	W	98%	48.0	100%
15-Nov	Florida State	15	26-30	L	56%	3.7	32%
22-Nov	at Virginia	39	13-30	L	10%	-30.0	0%
29-Nov	Pittsburgh	43	23-35	L	22%	-18.1	1%
27-Dec	vs. South Carolina	38	21-24	L	30%	-12.0	10%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	34.9	32	22.2	26
Points Per Game	29.2	62	24.3	37

2. A resounding thud

No matter the expectations, it's not difficult to understand that sentiment. That's what happens when you raise hopes, then fall flat on your face.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 6 games): 74% (~top 35 | record: 3-3)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 3 games): 99% (~top 1 | record: 3-0)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 4 games): 30% (~top 90 | record: 0-4)

For six games, Miami progressed in fits and starts, exactly as you would think for a team starting a true freshman at quarterback and working with sophomores on defense. The offense was iffy against Louisville, good against Nebraska and great until the red zone against Georgia Tech. (It's really hard to average 8 yards per play and score just 17 points, but thanks to Georgia Tech's 40-minute time of possession and two Miami interceptions in Tech territory, the Hurricanes pulled it off.) The defense was fine against Louisville and great against Duke but couldn't get off of the field against Tech.

Hits and misses became only hits in a three-week span between October 11 and November 1. Against two good offenses and one bad one, the Hurricanes allowed just 4.3 yards per play and 20 points per game; against two iffy defenses and one great one, they averaged an incredible 8 yards per play and 44 points per game.

During this brief stretch, Miami was the best team in the country. The defense was good, and the offense was amazing. The Hurricanes handled Cincinnati about as easily as Ohio State did, crushed the team that beat the Buckeyes, and beat UNC worse than Clemson and Notre Dame combined.

The momentum carried over, too. Brad Kaaya hit Philip Dorsett and Clive Walford for big touchdown passes, and Miami took a 23-7 lead over Florida State early in the second quarter on November 15. And ...

... then Miami was outscored, 92-60, the rest of the season. FSU surged back to win in the final minute, as the Seminoles did in seemingly every regular season game in 2014. The Hurricanes then laid an egg at Virginia and were lucky to lose by only 12 to Pitt. The Independence Bowl loss to South Carolina was competitive and mediocre, and somehow, after playing like a burgeoning elite, Miami finished 6-7.

Be it youth, iffy depth, a quarterback hitting a freshman wall, or a demoralizing rivalry loss, the season ended when the FSU game ended.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.00	8	IsoPPP+	119.4	29
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.2%	53	Succ. Rt. +	105.8	47
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.7	44	Def. FP+	103.0	33
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	67	Redzone S&P+	100.2	65
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.6		ACTUAL	24	+4.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	47	39	58	29
RUSHING	50	66	69	62
PASSING	48	25	43	19
Standard Downs		43	75	29
Passing Downs		34	36	39

Q1 Rk	17	1st Down Rk	39
Q2 Rk	37	2nd Down Rk	45
Q3 Rk	54	3rd Down Rk	9
Q4 Rk	76

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Brad Kaaya	6'4, 209	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9356	221	378	3198	26	12	58.5%	20	5.0%	7.7
Jake Heaps					6	12	51	0	0	50.0%	1	7.7%	2.9
Gray Crow	6'3, 224	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8616
Malik Rosier	6'1, 212	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8438

3. The run was the problem

Last year, Miami had the incredible Duke Johnson and a freshman quarterback in the backfield and finished 6-7 with a decent defense. Intuition would tell you that the passing game was probably the biggest issue. Not so! Or at least, not until the end of the season.

Brad Kaaya produced a 130 passer rating nine times in 13 games and topped 200 three times -- against Arkansas State, Cincinnati, and UNC, Kaaya completed 68 percent at 18.6 yards per completion, with 10 touchdowns to one pick. Even if he had good receivers and Johnson, one of the country's better pass-catching running backs, that's incredible for a freshman, sophomore, junior, or senior.

But the offensive line was only OK, and for all of Johnson's success, a lot of it came in specific games. Johnson rushed nine times for 97 yards against FAMU and was almost untouchable in Miami's three-game stretch (against Cincy, VT, and UNC: 58 carries, 588 yards, four TDs). But in the other nine games, he averaged a mortal 5.5 yards per carry with five touchdowns. Against Louisville, Nebraska, FSU, and Pitt, the average was 4.8.

The inconsistent run game put a lot of pressure on Kaaya to make plays, and for two months, he did. But as freshmen do, he hit a wall. And it seemed to happen around halftime of the FSU game.

• Kaaya, first 9.5 games: 62% completion rate, 15.1 yards per completion, 9% TD rate, 4% INT rate
• Kaaya, last 3.5 games: 52% completion rate, 13.1 yards per completion, 3% TD rate, 2% INT rate

Kaaya's potential is off the charts; on third-and-7 or more in 2014, he completed 34 of 59 passes for 503 yards, and Miami ranked 34th in Passing Downs S&P+ and ninth in Third Down S&P+. Miami fans might be scarred by the iffy progression of former freshman star Jacory Harris, but a) Harris was underrated, leading two offenses that ranked in the Off. S&P+ top 30, and b) Kaaya's freshman passer rating was 20 points higher than Harris'. Granted, there were plenty of issues to work on -- Miami's offense got worse with each progressive quarter and couldn't close out drives (at least in part because of the iffy run game) -- but Kaaya passed his freshman exams.

The biggest issue: a brand new supporting cast. Johnson's gone, meaning Miami's replacing both a 1,600-yard rusher and a solid No. 2 passing target. And while Kaaya found downfield passing success, most of it was due to Philip Dorsett and tight end Clive Walford, who combined for 1,547 receiving yards at 12.3 yards per target. They're both gone, too.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Duke Johnson	RB					242	1652	10	6.8	7.1	44.2%	3	3
Joseph Yearby	RB	5'9, 195	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9767	86	509	1	5.9	4.9	44.2%	0	0
Gus Edwards	RB	6'2, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8569	61	349	6	5.7	6.4	36.1%	1	1
Brad Kaaya	QB	6'4, 209	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9356	7	12	1	1.7	0.5	14.3%	4	1
Trayone Gray	RB	6'2, 215	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8576	6	24	1	4.0	1.9	50.0%	1	1
Stacy Coley	WR	6'1, 187	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9714	5	30	0	6.0	4.9	60.0%	1	1
Walter Tucker	FB	6'0, 226	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR
Mark Walton	RB	5'10, 190	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9588

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Phillip Dorsett	WR					71	36	871	50.7%	19.1%	60.6%	12.3	414	12.4	144.0
Duke Johnson	RB					58	38	421	65.5%	15.6%	51.7%	7.3	-37	7.1	69.6
Clive Walford	TE					55	44	676	80.0%	14.8%	63.6%	12.3	164	12.3	111.7
Stacy Coley	WR	6'1, 187	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9714	43	23	184	53.5%	11.6%	60.5%	4.3	-105	4.3	30.4
Braxton Berrios	SLOT	5'9, 183	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8818	42	21	232	50.0%	11.3%	66.7%	5.5	-36	5.9	38.3
Malcolm Lewis	SLOT	6'0, 189	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9028	40	25	248	62.5%	10.8%	55.0%	6.2	-56	6.2	41.0
Herb Waters	WR	6'2, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8836	25	20	277	80.0%	6.7%	72.0%	11.1	44	10.3	45.8
Standish Dobard	TE	6'4, 262	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9082	11	7	147	63.6%	3.0%	54.5%	13.4	62	13.3	24.3
Joseph Yearby	RB	5'9, 195	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9767	11	8	118	72.7%	3.0%	72.7%	10.7	23	13.8	19.5
Gus Edwards	RB	6'2, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8569	3	2	44	66.7%	0.8%	66.7%	14.7	20	15.3	7.3
D'Mauri Jones	WR	6'4, 196	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8497	3	1	13	33.3%	0.8%	33.3%	4.3	-1	2.8	2.1
Tyre Brady	WR	6'3, 204	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8529	3	0	0	0.0%	0.8%	66.7%	0.0	-4	0.0	0.0
Christopher Herndon IV	TE	6'4, 255	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8550	3	0	0	0.0%	0.8%	33.3%	0.0	-4	0.0	0.0
Rashawn Scott	WR	6'2, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8294
Jake O'Donnell	TE	6'6, 258	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8264
Darrell Langham	WR	6'4, 212	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8672
Jerome Washington	TE	6'5, 262	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8913
Lawrence Cager	WR	6'5, 200	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8894

4. All potential, little production

Since we're talking about Miami, it goes without saying that the new skill position guys are loaded with potential. Joseph Yearby was nearly as highly touted as Johnson out of high school, and while his explosiveness numbers couldn't match Johnson's, his efficiency numbers were dead even, and he didn't fumble. Between Yearby, the explosive Gus Edwards, and Mark Walton, the latest blue-chipper, Miami has talent. But Duke was Duke.

Dorsett will go down as the latest underrated Miami receiver, but it's hard not to like the backups. Herb Waters has been an explosive backup for a couple of years (which usually says good things about what happens when one takes on more targets), Yearby and Edwards were as impressive as Duke in limited receiving opportunities (14 targets, eight catches, 162 yards), Standish Dobard was as explosive as Walford (again, in limited opportunities), and incoming four-star Lawrence Cager has the length to contribute early, even if he could stand to eat more sandwiches.

And that says nothing of Mr. Potential, Stacy Coley. Coley was a breakout freshman, averaging 11.8 yards per target as a No. 3 behind Allen Hurns and Walford, and he was instantly one of the nation's most explosive return men. But he battled shoulder issues and one hell of a sophomore slump; after gaining 591 yards in 50 targets in 2013, he gained an almost impossibly low 184 yards in 43 in 2014. And his return averages regressed as well.

If new receivers coach Kevin Beard can connect with Coley and help him reestablish his 2013 trajectory, the receiving corps is fine. But the Canes are still going from proven production to ifs.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	104.8	3.31	3.17	42.0%	69.2%	17.4%	123.8	4.7%	4.2%
Rank	52	21	77	31	45	38	36	68	13

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Shane McDermott	C					36	2014 1st All-ACC
Ereck Flowers	LT					30	2014 2nd All-ACC
Jon Feliciano	LG					46
Danny Isidora	LG	6'4, 322	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8861	13
Taylor Gadbois	RT	6'8, 321	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8504	9
Nick Linder	C	6'3, 300	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8378	4
Trevor Darling	LT	6'5, 318	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9541	1
Hunter Wells	RG	6'6, 316	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7917	0
Alex Gall	C	6'5, 310	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8489	0
KC McDermott	LT	6'6, 315	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9764	0
Hunter Knighton	C	6'6, 300	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8473	0
Sunny Odogwu	RT	6'8, 322	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8500	0
Joe Brown	LG	6'4, 331	RSFr.	NR	NR
Jahair Jones	RT	6'4, 327	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8614
Tyler Grimsley	RG	6'3, 300	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR
Bar Milo	OL	6'6, 285	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9107
Tyree St. Louis	OL	6'5, 315	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8984
Brendan Loftus	OL	6'6, 300	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8518
Hayden Mahoney	OL	6'5, 290	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8494

5. A ton of candidates, at least

Miami's 2014 line was not great, not terrible. But a year after replacing four players with starting experience, it must replace another three this year; Shane McDermott, Ereck Flowers, and Jon Feliciano combined for 111 career starts, and the latter two earned all-conference honors last year. [Update: Make that four replacements, as right tackle Taylor Gadbois is also gone.]

With a still-young quarterback and new skill-position starters, the line will probably need to raise its collective game to match last year's production, and that might be difficult.

But at least there are options. Miami returns three players with starting experience, boasts four former four-star recruits, and features plenty of size -- of the 15 listed above, 10 are at least 6'5, and 9 are at least 310 pounds. It's a mix-and-match game that could work, with only one senior in the mix, might not bear fruit until 2016.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.76	20	IsoPPP+	123.4	15
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.2%	55	Succ. Rt. +	113.3	25
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.3	65	Off. FP+	98.0	88
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.5	80	Redzone S&P+	107.4	41
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	27.4		ACTUAL	23.0	-4.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	14	20	22	15
RUSHING	30	41	32	44
PASSING	17	9	11	10
Standard Downs		14	22	14
Passing Downs		31	17	34

Q1 Rk	17	1st Down Rk	14
Q2 Rk	24	2nd Down Rk	7
Q3 Rk	45	3rd Down Rk	25
Q4 Rk	13

6. Finally, a defensive breakthrough

Coordinator Mark D'Onofrio has been Golden's right hand man for a while. That he was able to mold a Temple defense into a top-60 unit (52nd in Def. F/+ in 2008, 56th in 2009) would suggest he could craft a top-30 unit with greater talent at Miami.

To put it kindly, that has not been the case. D'Onofrio inherited a defense that had ranked 12th in 2010, and in three years, the Hurricanes have fallen to 73rd, then 88th, then 91st.

The pass rush was decent, but the pass defense was both inefficient and leaky. Miami ranked 116th in Passing Downs S&P+.

Safe to say, defense was holding Miami back early in the Golden era. While the offense ranked 31st or better in Off. S&P+ in each of Golden's first three years, the defense ranked 54th or worse. The Canes let opponents off the hook in 2013, getting pushed around at the point of attack and struggling to avoid big plays on passing downs. After some serious turnover -- three of 2013's top four tackles were gone, as were two of three linebackers -- D'Onofrio flipped a switch.

Miami's pass rush still wasn't very good, but the linebackers were great, and the secondary made more plays. The performances were a bit up-and-down, but the full-season result was impressive: Miami improved from 68th in Def. S&P+ to 26th, from 100th in Rushing S&P+ to 41st, and from 116th in Passing Downs S&P+ to 31st.

Now, with another four starters to replace in the front seven, we'll see if the Hurricanes can maintain last year's gains.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	111.5	2.94	2.81	39.3%	64.8%	19.5%	98.8	4.7%	5.5%
Rank	29	67	29	70	50	62	70	63	101

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Anthony Chickillo	DE					13	30.5	4.3%	4.5	3.0	0	3	1	0
Ufomba Kamalu	DT	6'6, 295	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	13	27.5	3.9%	4.0	3.5	0	2	0	0
Olsen Pierre	DT					13	26.0	3.7%	2.5	0.0	0	2	0	0
Calvin Heurtelou	DT	6'3, 315	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8690	13	16.5	2.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Trent Harris	DE	6'2, 245	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8987	12	12.0	1.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Courtel Jenkins	DT	6'1, 314	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8425	12	10.5	1.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Al-Quadin Muhammad (2013)	DE	6'3, 260	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9750	13	7.5	1.0%	2.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Michael Wyche	DT	6'4, 325	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8628	10	6.0	0.8%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Chad Thomas	DE	6'5, 265	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9877	12	5.0	0.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Moten	DT	6'4, 299	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9266	10	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jelani Hamilton	DE	6'5, 302	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9459
Earl Moore	DT	6'1, 304	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8603
Demetrius Jackson	DE	6'5, 250	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8755
Scott Patchan	DE	6'6, 245	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8752
Richard McIntosh, Jr.	DE	6'4, 270	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8544
Kendrick Norton	DT	6'3, 310	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8860

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Denzel Perryman	MLB					13	94.5	13.3%	9.5	2.0	1	5	3	0
Jermaine Grace	OLB	6'1, 208	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8970	13	48.0	6.8%	6.5	3.0	0	1	0	1
Thurston Armbrister	OLB					13	47.0	6.6%	8.0	5.0	0	1	2	0
Raphael Kirby	MLB	6'1, 235	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9369	13	41.0	5.8%	4.5	0.0	2	2	2	0
Tyriq McCord	DE/OLB	6'3, 236	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9443	13	38.0	5.4%	6.5	3.0	1	3	1	0
Darrion Owens	OLB	6'3, 238	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8832	12	17.0	2.4%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Juwon Young	MLB	6'2, 245	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8535	13	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Marques Gayot	OLB	6'1, 220	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8503
Mike Smith	LB	6'1, 225	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8805
Charles Perry	LB	6'1, 206	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8762
Jamie Gordinier	LB	6'4, 235	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8544

7. Wanted: more havoc up front

Despite an active secondary, Miami ranked a mediocre 58th in Havoc Rate, defensing 62 passes (40th) but recording only 64 tackles for loss (97th). And most of the TFLs came from a linebacking corps that is facing turnover. The Canes do return Jermaine Grace, Raphael Kirby, and part-time DE Tyriq McCord (combined: 17.5 TFLs), but stalwart Denzel Perryman is gone, as is Thurston Armbrister, Miami's best blitzer.

If Kirby is ready to fill Perryman's shoes, then Miami's front seven could hold steady. But a few more plays up front wouldn't be a bad thing. Ufomba Kamalu is a fine playmaker at tackle, but Miami has to get more from its ends. The return of Al-Quadin Muhammad, a former star recruit who was suspended for the fall semester after a violent altercation with a former roommate, could help immensely, as could quick development of four-star freshmen like Demetrius Jackson and Scott Patchan.

The secondary could be good enough to thrive without more disruption up front, but if the front can make a few more plays, the back could turn this into a top-20 defense.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Deon Bush	S	6'1, 205	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9435	12	46.0	6.5%	4	2	2	3	5	0
Nantambu-Akil Fentress	S					13	45.5	6.4%	3	0	0	0	2	0
Rayshawn Jenkins (2013)	S	6'1, 209	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8525	13	38.0	5.2%	1	0	3	5	0	0
Artie Burns	CB	6'0, 193	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9533	13	32.0	4.5%	2	2	0	6	0	0
Corn Elder	CB	5'10, 183	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9185	13	29.5	4.2%	3	1	0	4	0	1
Dallas Crawford	S	5'10, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8979	13	26.0	3.7%	0.5	0	0	2	0	0
Ladarius Gunter	CB					13	24.5	3.5%	0	0	2	6	0	0
Jamal Carter	S	6'1, 209	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9061	13	20.5	2.9%	0	0	1	5	0	0
Antonio Crawford	CB					13	18.0	2.5%	1	1	0	5	1	0
Tracy Howard	CB	5'11, 191	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9884	13	18.0	2.5%	0	0	1	1	1	0
Hugo Delapenha Jr.	DB					9	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Jackson	CB	6'2, 192	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8643
Jaquan Johnson	S	5'10, 188	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.9133
Sheldrick Redwine	DB	6'1, 183	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8563

8. A potentially great secondary

The Miami secondary was worse than it had any reason to be in 2013, and then it lost starting safety Rayshawn Jenkins to a back injury. On paper, there was little reason to hope for any major breakthrough, but both Artie Burns and Corn Elder took second-year leaps at cornerback. That took pressure off of senior Ladarius Gunter, as did a deep rotation.

Gunter and play-preventer Nantambu-Akil Fentress are gone, but Burns, Elder, and safeties Deon Bush, Dallas Crawford, and Jamal Carter return for a unit that could be outstanding. Because of the iffy pass rush, the secondary has been asked to shoulder a heavy load, but it thrived last year and could improve even further.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Justin Vogel	6'4, 208	Jr.	52	42.8	1	20	21	78.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Justin Vogel	6'4, 208	Jr.	58	62.0	18	1	31.0%
Michael Badgley	5'10, 180	So.	19	55.7	5	1	26.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Michael Badgley	5'10, 180	So.	34-38	9-11	81.8%	5-7	71.4%
Matt Goudis			6-6	4-5	80.0%	0-1	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Stacy Coley	KR	6'1, 187	Jr.	24	22.5	0
Phillip Dorsett	KR			8	14.5	0
Stacy Coley	PR	6'1, 187	Jr.	15	7.0	0
Braxton Berrios	PR	5'9, 183	So.	4	5.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	92
Field Goal Efficiency	25
Punt Return Efficiency	103
Kick Return Efficiency	95
Punt Efficiency	33
Kickoff Efficiency	111
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	83

9. All-or-nothing special teams

Michael Badgley made five of seven long field goals and missed four PATs. Coley was reasonably explosive but inefficient on returns. Justin Vogel's punts were high and unreturnable, but his kickoffs were all sorts of returnable.

Miami's special teams unit was all over the map, and predictably, that resulted in poor efficiency. There's all sorts of potential, but we'll see if more of it's realized.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
5-Sep	Bethune-Cookman	NR
11-Sep	at Florida Atlantic	101
19-Sep	Nebraska	30
1-Oct	at Cincinnati	47
10-Oct	at Florida State	17
17-Oct	Virginia Tech	26
24-Oct	Clemson	15
31-Oct	at Duke	54
7-Nov	Virginia	46
14-Nov	at North Carolina	44
21-Nov	Georgia Tech	19
27-Nov	at Pittsburgh	38

Five-Year F/+ Rk	16.6% (31)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	19 / 19
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-1 / 7.8
2014 TO Luck/Game	-3.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	11 (5, 6)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	7.1 (-1.1)

10. We'll learn what we need to by Halloween

For two straight years, Miami has fallen apart after losing to Florida State. In 2013, the Canes started 7-0 but got rocked by the Seminoles, and it bled over to 18-point losses against Virginia Tech and Duke. Last year, they were 6-3 but had played three consecutive nearly flawless games and took a 16-point lead on the Noles, only to lose by four, then lose by a combined 29 to Virginia and Pitt, who combined to finish 11-14.

If you're looking for reasons why Golden's on such a hot seat, that's a good place to start. His teams have been too thin, too inexperienced, or simply incapable of rebounding from disappointing outcomes against a more successful (of late) rival.

This year will either finish or redefine the Golden era. He's likely going to have to win quite a few games this year, and while that doesn't mean he has to beat Florida State, a) it would help, and b) he can still survive if his team actually bounces back.

The FSU game falls in the middle of a telling stretch: a visit from Nebraska and a trip to Cincinnati precede it, and visits from Virginia Tech and Clemson follow. If the Canes are 4-3 or better when they head to Duke on Halloween, they'll be in shape to finish with the eight or nine wins requisite to keeping Golden's job. If they're 3-4 or worse, they'll probably be playing for an interim coach in November. And if they're 5-2 or better, they'll perhaps be in the running for their first division title.

Yes, first division title. Miami's issues began long before Golden came to town, and while he hasn't been able to meet the bar, it's not evident that many could. But whether expectations are realistic or not, Golden's got a potentially great quarterback, an exciting set of skill position options, and a defense coming off of its best season in years.

He's got a chance to survive, job intact, heading into 2016, and if he does, that might be a very good thing for Miami.