Kansas football won't win many games, but it'll get exercise and fresh air

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1. Not all recruiting is the same

For the last 20 years, David Beaty has based in three areas: the greater Dallas area, the greater Houston area, and Lawrence, Kansas.

Beaty was a high school assistant near Dallas for seven years, then became head coach at North Dallas and Irving MacArthur. He joined Todd Graham's Rice in 2006, then became Mark Mangino's receivers coach at Kansas in 2008. He moved back to Rice to become coordinator in 2010, then to Lawrence. He landed on Kevin Sumlin's staff at Texas A&M*. And now, he's back in Lawrence.

* Yes, for a literary touch, I'm saying College Station, 90-something miles from Houston, is part of the "greater Houston area." Just go with it.

Beaty's short record as a coordinator was intriguing. Rice improved from 107th in Off. S&P+ in 2009 to 56th in 2010, and after falling apart in 2010, KU's offense improved from 117th in Off. S&P+ to 46th in 2011.

Still, see if you can spot a trend:

'David Beaty is well-respected in the football community and brings to KU great vision, passion and energy,' Kansas Athletics Director Sheahon Zenger said. 'He has a bright football mind and is known as one of the best recruiters in the nation.'

Known as an ace recruiter, Beaty oversaw the Aggies' recruiting efforts in the talent-rich Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, where he has roots as a high school coach.

Meanwhile, Beaty helped to coach record-setting offenses at Texas A&M while burnishing his reputation as one of the nation's best recruiters. The Aggies have had produced some of the best classes in the nation while he has been on the staff in College Station.

The 44-year-old Beaty, a former assistant at KU under Mark Mangino when the Jayhawks had a lot of success and offensive coordinator at Rice in 2010, is regarded as one of the nation's top recruiters and had landed a bunch of blue-chippers from his native Texas.

'David is a great recruiter, a great coach and a great man,' Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin said.

Recruiting is as important as anything in college football. Almost no coach is adept enough to overcome a lack of talent. That Beaty is known as an excellent recruiter is one for the pro column.

That it's the first thing anybody mentions about him throws up a red flag.

Being a good recruiter can mean many things. When you're at Texas A&M, you've got a charismatic head coach and a Heisman winner in uniform, and you're based in the state of Texas, it means helping to lock down a series of top-15 classes.

When you're at Kansas, great recruiting is going to be building long-term relationships with high school coaches and families, projecting for your system, and maybe landing a couple more four-star recruits per year than your school is used to. You are never going to build a blue-chip pipeline, but good recruiting can lead to depth and an increase in star power.

Beaty has roots all over the Dallas area, and while that won't help him draw five-stars to eastern Kansas, it could give him a leg up when it comes to high-three-star talent. He might have been great at Texas A&M, but he has to be great in a completely different way now.

Former KU tight end Jimmay Mundine committed to Mark Mangino in July 2009 and was either redshirting or playing during the entire Turner Gill and Charlie Weis eras. The two lasted a combined five years, one recruit's cycle. They won a combined 12 games, one more than Texas A&M won in 2012. Recruiting is only going to matter so much if you can't get get the team playing well enough to keep your job.

Of course, even the best of coaching performances probably won't be enough to win many games with KU's 2015 roster. So we'll start judging in 2016.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 5-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 99
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
6-Sep	SE Missouri State	N/A	34-28	W	53%	1.8	94%
13-Sep	at Duke	51	3-41	L	5%	-38.0	0%
20-Sep	Central Michigan	85	24-10	W	92%	33.2	98%
27-Sep	Texas	53	0-23	L	16%	-23.2	0%
4-Oct	at West Virginia	40	14-33	L	19%	-20.3	1%
11-Oct	Oklahoma State	75	20-27	L	55%	2.9	50%
18-Oct	at Texas Tech	82	21-34	L	37%	-7.5	25%
1-Nov	at Baylor	10	14-60	L	23%	-17.0	0%
8-Nov	Iowa State	92	34-14	W	68%	11.2	93%
15-Nov	TCU	6	30-34	L	80%	19.9	39%
22-Nov	at Oklahoma	19	7-44	L	4%	-41.8	0%
29-Nov	at Kansas State	26	13-51	L	8%	-33.3	0%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	21.8	104	28.8	69
Points Per Game	17.8	118	33.3	106

2. Bowen had it going for a little while

To date, Beaty's best success at KU hasn't come in landing an 18-year-old's signature -- it happened when he hired his defensive coordinator. Clint Bowen was getting somewhere as KU's coordinator under Weis, and when Weis was dumped after four games last year, Bowen took over as interim head coach and produced good moments.

The bottom dropped out, as is often the case in such an arrangement, but Bowen did enough to earn a serious look at the permanent head coaching job. That he didn't get it but stayed anyway was a mini-coup.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 4 games): 42% (~top 75 | record: 2-2)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 6 games): 47% (~top 70 | record: 1-5)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 2 games): 6% (~top 120 | record: 0-2)

Weis' four-game average was propped up by a solid game against CMU, but his Jayhawks thought about losing to Southeast Missouri State and were dreadful against Duke and Texas. They lost by a combined 64-3 in those games and averaged 3.9 yards per play, and 28 games after his surprising hire, Weis was let go.

After Bowen took over, the results were still hit-or-miss, but there were hits. KU outgained Oklahoma State by more than 100 yards in a tossup loss, whipped Iowa State, and bolted out to a somewhat fluky lead over TCU. There were duds against West Virginia and Baylor, and the last two games were hopeless (and perhaps killed any Bowen-for-head coach momentum), but KU showed glimpses of cohesiveness and talent.

That would be reason for optimism if most of said talent was still on the roster.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.82	86	IsoPPP+	83.8	107
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	35.3%	120	Succ. Rt. +	86.7	115
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	32.2	110	Def. FP+	95.0	117
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.5	113	Redzone S&P+	78.9	126
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.0		ACTUAL	18	-5.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	118	112	116	107
RUSHING	112	118	117	114
PASSING	86	96	103	86
Standard Downs		116	118	108
Passing Downs		103	106	93

Q1 Rk	87	1st Down Rk	121
Q2 Rk	126	2nd Down Rk	122
Q3 Rk	91	3rd Down Rk	107
Q4 Rk	127

3. From thin to wow

For all of his perceived offensive prowess, Weis just never figured out how to move the ball at the college level. His NFL results were achieved in an environment of parity. With talent disadvantages at KU, it was more like parody. With Beaty on staff, KU ranked 46th in Off. S&P+ in 2011; in three years under Weis, the Jayhawks ranked 70th, 119th, and 104th, respectively.

And now they must replace nearly every skill contributor, four linemen with starting experience, and perhaps their quarterback.

Two of KU's top three runners are gone, as are all six players who were targeted at least 10 times. The leading returning receiver, tight end Ben Johnson, has eight career catches. None of the returnees could crack a pretty bad rotation last year. And the status of starting quarterback Michael Cummings after a scary knee injury in the spring game is not optimistic.

Yikes. Beaty and coordinator Rob Likens (most recently Sonny Dykes' passing game coordinator at Cal) will be attempting to build a spread-'em-out system with a bunch of newcomers. To say the least, that's probably not going to work in the short-term.

Beaty's addition of Likens was possibly a nice touch. Acknowledging your limitations as a new head coach is important, and Beaty is combating his lack of high-level coaching experience by bringing in some experienced coordinators. Bowen has been in various roles on the KU coaching staff for 16 years, and Likens' career has spanned nearly 25 years.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Michael Cummings	5'10, 212	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8454	137	244	1715	9	6	56.1%	18	6.9%	6.1
Montell Cozart	6'2, 193	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8164	64	128	701	5	7	50.0%	11	7.9%	4.4
T.J. Millweard	6'3, 219	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8832	2	3	14	0	0	66.7%	0	0.0%	4.7
Ryan Willis	6'4, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8578
Carter Stanley	6'2, 188	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Corey Avery	RB					151	631	5	4.2	3.9	29.1%	2	1
Taylor Cox (2012)	RB	5'11, 206	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8133	91	464	3	5.1	3.7	N/A	N/A	N/A
De'Andre Mann	RB	5'9, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8256	86	399	0	4.6	3.1	40.7%	1	0
Tony Pierson	RB					72	323	2	4.5	8.8	27.8%	1	0
Michael Cummings	QB	5'10, 212	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8454	49	137	4	2.8	4.4	24.5%	8	1
Montell Cozart	QB	6'2, 193	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8164	41	148	0	3.6	4.6	36.6%	3	0
Joe Dineen, Jr.	LB					14	45	0	3.2	1.0	35.7%	0	0
Darious Crawley	WR	5'11, 189	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8188	12	29	0	2.4	1.3	25.0%	1	1
Ke'aun Kinner	RB	5'9, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8553
Taylor Martin	RB	5'10, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8236

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Nick Harwell	WR					78	44	470	56.4%	22.4%	51.3%	6.0	-76	6.2	58.4
Nigel King	WR					71	30	537	42.3%	20.4%	49.3%	7.6	138	7.8	66.7
Jimmay Mundine	TE					61	45	584	73.8%	17.5%	57.4%	9.6	53	9.6	72.5
Justin McCay	WR					36	18	189	50.0%	10.3%	44.4%	5.3	-40	4.8	23.5
Tony Pierson	RB					33	22	203	66.7%	9.5%	57.6%	6.2	-61	6.2	25.2
Corey Avery	RB					27	18	217	66.7%	7.8%	37.0%	8.0	1	6.6	27.0
De'Andre Mann	RB	5'9, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8256	11	8	56	72.7%	3.2%	36.4%	5.1	-39	6.6	7.0
Ben Johnson	TE	6'5, 234	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8257	10	8	80	80.0%	2.9%	60.0%	8.0	-13	7.8	9.9
Rodriguez Coleman	WR					10	3	37	30.0%	2.9%	60.0%	3.7	-7	3.6	4.6
Tre' Parmalee	WR	5'10, 171	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8125	4	4	21	100.0%	1.1%	50.0%	5.3	-24	5.5	2.6
Darious Crawley	WR	5'11, 189	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8188	2	1	7	50.0%	0.6%	100.0%	3.5	-6	N/A	0.9
Shakiem Barbel	WR	6'3, 192	Sr.	NR	NR
Derrick Neal	WR	5'10, 170	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8472
Bobby Hartzog, Jr.	WR	5'11, 189	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8241
Tyler Patrick	WR	6'0, 179	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7954
Chase Harrell	WR	6'4, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8073
Emmanuel Moore	WR	6'0, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8226
Jace Sternberger	TE	6'4, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8112

4. Playing time available

Technically, KU does return experience at quarterback whether Cummings rehabs quickly or not. And a new coaching staff offers new hope.

Perhaps junior quarterback Montell Cozart thrives in a new system. In moving to an air raid-style offense in 2014, TCU's Trevone Boykin went from inefficient to explosive. If you squint pretty hard, you can see something Boykin-esque in Cozart's stats to date. He was a semi-efficient runner in 2013, and he improved his completion rate from horrific (37 percent) in 2013 to merely bad (50 percent).

But even if Cozart improves, he needs help. And that help will almost certainly come from players who weren't on the field for KU last year. Thanks to the dismissal of sophomore Corey Avery, JUCO transfer Ke'aun Kinner has a clear path to the starting running back job. He'll get competition from efficient (and in no way explosive) senior De'Andre Mann and perhaps oft-injured senior Taylor Cox, but by simply signing with KU, Kinner became the new favorite for the job.

Beaty didn't sign any quick-fix wideouts. Returnees combined for just five catches last year (four from senior Tre' Parmalee, one from sophomore Darious Crawley), and while sophomore Derrick Neal was reasonably well-regarded as a recruit, he's just about the only one. Parmalee, Neal, and two-star redshirt freshman Tyler Patrick finished the spring atop the depth chart.

Don't expect much explosiveness. And without big plays, you need consistent execution. If Kinner's a stud, maybe the Jayhawks can avoid putting too much pressure on whoever ends up behind center. But that's a lot of pressure to put on a newcomer.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	81	2.3	2.84	31.5%	51.3%	22.3%	76.1	7.9%	7.0%
Rank	121	124	103	122	125	107	112	115	60

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Ngalu Fusimalohi	LG					21
Pat Lewandowski	LT					20
Mike Smithburg	LG					19
Larry Mazyck	LT	6'8, 343	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8294	9
Joe Gibson	C	6'3, 293	So.	NR	NR	7
Damon Martin	RT					7
Keyon Haughton	C	6'2, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8204	5
Junior Visinia	RG	6'4, 375	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7894	3
Jordan Shelley-Smith	LT	6'5, 296	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR	1
Bryan Peters	LG	6'3, 298	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8578	1
Devon Williams	OL	6'4, 304	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7901	0
Kyle Pullia	LG	6'4, 273	Jr.	NR	NR	0
Joe Bloomfield	RT	6'6, 268	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8366	0
Jacob Bragg	OL	6'4, 284	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8544
D'Andre Banks	RG	6'3, 309	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7583
Will Smith	OL	6'3, 327	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8033
Jayson Rhodes	RT	6'4, 300	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956
Aaron Garza	OL	6'3, 290	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8485
Clyde McCauley III	OL	6'5, 275	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8035

5. Options, at least

Despite decent recruiting rankings (relatively speaking), the KU offensive line had very little to offer against Big 12 defenses. Granted, blocking for iffy quarterbacks and young running backs will hurt a line's stats, but aside from the passing downs sack rate (which ranked a decent 60th), KU's line stats were beyond awful. The Jayhawks barely converted 50 percent of short-yardage attempts, and nearly one-quarter of their rushes were stopped in the backfield.

With this in mind, the loss of three multi-year starters might not be the most painful thing in the world. Enormous left tackle Larry Mazyck is back, as are five players who have started at least once, but there is playing time available if any of three JUCO transfer plays well from the start, or if a youngster like redshirt freshman Jacob Bragg or sophomore Joe Bloomfield progresses. And the bar is very low here.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.93	109	IsoPPP+	98.5	71
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.9%	62	Succ. Rt. +	109.8	31
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.6	102	Off. FP+	101.0	51
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	54	Redzone S&P+	124.8	8
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.0		ACTUAL	21.0	-2.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	109	54	35	71
RUSHING	106	74	41	94
PASSING	89	47	32	60
Standard Downs		36	26	46
Passing Downs		98	60	107

Q1 Rk	80	1st Down Rk	96
Q2 Rk	37	2nd Down Rk	100
Q3 Rk	111	3rd Down Rk	66
Q4 Rk	23

6. The defense deserved better (again)

I don't want to overstate the quality of the KU defense. The Jayhawks gave up too many big plays on the ground and on passing downs, they started halves very slowly, and they had some outright duds -- Duke averaged 7.3 yards per play, and a hit-or-miss Oklahoma offense averaged 8.1. Thanks to a late-season fade, KU ended up ranking only 69th in Def. S&P+, 11 spots below where they were in 2013.

But it was good enough to make the Jayhawks competitive at times, and ...

... actually, wait, I said the same thing last year.

Make no mistake: Kansas' defense wasn't great in 2013. The unit crafted by Bowen and Dave Campo had no standout strengths, and the line was an outright liability. Still, with a decent offense, the defense would have been good enough to keep the Jayhawks in more games.

Relative bright spots are relative bright spots. With shaky talent (from a recruiting perspective), Bowen has helped KU to mediocre defensive ratings for two straight years, and with more help from awful offenses, the D could have been bowl-worthy.

This formula probably won't change. Beaty and his offensive assistants are reasonably well-regarded, but they might not have anything to work with this year. So it will be up to the defense to keep the Jayhawks in games.

Only ... the defense is also rebuilding. The top two tackles, four of the top five linebackers, top two safeties, and top two cornerbacks are all gone. Again, yikes.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101	2.93	3.92	39.8%	75.7%	17.1%	96	4.0%	6.7%
Rank	57	66	121	80	111	100	74	83	80

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Keon Stowers	DT					11	20.5	3.0%	0.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Tedarian Johnson	DT					12	19.0	2.8%	3.5	1.0	0	0	1	0
Ben Goodman	DE	6'3, 253	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8394	12	17.5	2.6%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
T.J. Semke	DE	6'2, 248	Sr.	NR	NR	12	15.0	2.2%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Andrew Bolton	DT	6'3, 293	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8538	11	13.5	2.0%	3.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Tyler Holmes	DT	6'3, 273	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8407	12	7.0	1.0%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kapil Fletcher	DT	6'3, 271	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8301	7	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Damani Mosby	DE	6'3, 239	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8175
Anthony Olobia	DE	6'5, 239	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8609
Kellen Ash	DE	6'3, 242	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8277
D.J. Williams	DT	6'5, 289	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8560
Daniel Wise	DT	6'3, 271	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8417
Jacky Dezir	DT	6'1, 286	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7945
Dorance Armstrong	DE	6'4, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8454

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ben Heeney	MLB					12	107.5	15.8%	12.0	1.5	1	1	2	0
Jake Love	WLB					11	46.0	6.7%	9.5	3.0	0	1	1	0
Michael Reynolds	BUCK					12	40.0	5.9%	14.5	7.0	0	0	5	0
Courtney Arnick	WLB	6'2, 207	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8041	12	39.5	5.8%	4.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
Victor Simmons	BUCK					12	25.5	3.7%	6.5	2.0	0	2	2	0
Schyler Miles (2013)	MLB	6'2, 221	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8731	10	12.0	1.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kyron Watson	MLB	6'0, 235	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8817	11	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Joe Dineen, Jr.	LB	6'2, 212	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8147
Josh Ehambe	LB	6'3, 236	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8060

7. One of the league's best LB corps is no more

Some new blood ended up being a good thing for KU's defensive front. Players like Tedarian Johnson, Andrew Bolton, and T.J. Semke helped to give the Jayhawks some depth they didn't have up front and allowed an excellent set of linebackers to pursue better. KU still didn't have much of a presence in the backfield, but they were able to hem in most rushes near the line of scrimmage. If a runner got to the second level, he was probably running a long way, but play-making from the linebacker position was a strength.

And now four of last year's five linebackers are gone. Junior Courtney Arnick is back, Schyler Miles is back from injury, and Kyron Watson was the gem of the 2014 recruiting class. But the other four took 42.5 tackles for loss, 13.5 sacks, and 10 forced fumbles with them. That's a high standard that this new unit will struggle to meet.

That said, despite the loss of Johnson and Keon Stowers, the line is deep enough that it could hold up to blocking and free these new guys up.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Isaiah Johnson	S					12	63.5	9.3%	0.5	0	1	2	1	0
Cassius Sendish	S					12	63.0	9.2%	1.5	0	1	3	0	1
Fish Smithson	S	5'11, 193	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8411	12	42.5	6.2%	2	0	0	1	0	0
Dexter McDonald	CB					12	31.5	4.6%	0	0	2	13	1	0
Tevin Shaw	NB	5'11, 194	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7900	12	30.0	4.4%	2.5	0	0	1	1	1
JaCorey Shepherd	CB					12	26.5	3.9%	0	0	3	15	0	0
Greg Allen	S	5'11, 212	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8191	12	15.0	2.2%	2	1	0	1	0	0
Matthew Boateng	CB	5'11, 176	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8114	7	8.0	1.2%	0	0	1	5	1	0
Ronnie Davis	CB	6'0, 192	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8069	10	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Colin Spencer	CB	5'10, 179	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7994	10	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Aaron Plump	S	5'10, 213	Sr.	NR	NR
Bazie Bates IV	S	6'1, 186	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8332
Brandon Stewart	CB	6'0, 171	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7883
Marnez Ogletree	DB	5'10, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115
Tyrone Miller Jr.	DB	6'0, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8348
Shaquille Richmond	DB	6'0, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8181

8. A good secondary in 2016

The KU defense was nicely aggressive, giving up big plays but forcing plenty of turnovers and three-and-outs. The linebackers were probably the biggest strength, but saying that might be doing a disservice to corners Dexter McDonald and JaCorey Shepherd, who combined for five picks and a whopping 28 breakups.

Like the linebackers, the new starting corners -- likely some combination of senior Ronnie Davis, sophomore Matthew Boateng, and JUCO transfers Brandon Stewart and Marnez Ogletree -- have a high bar to clear.

The good news is that Davis is possibly the only senior who will end up in the rotation. This unit appears athletic enough that, when the experience reaches a certain level, it could do good things. There might be a setback this year, but 2016 should be kinder to the KU secondary.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Trevor Pardula			83	44.3	10	18	24	50.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Trevor Pardula			41	56.7	13	1	31.7%
Eric Kahn	6'5, 204	Sr.	6	40.0	0	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Matthew Wyman	6'1, 218	Jr.	25-27	8-10	80.0%	1-5	20.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
JaCorey Shepherd	KR			37	20.9	0
Darious Crawley	KR	5'11, 189	So.	2	17.5	0
Nick Harwell	PR			8	19.4	1
Derrick Neal	PR	5'10, 170	So.	4	2.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	121
Field Goal Efficiency	91
Punt Return Efficiency	63
Kick Return Efficiency	117
Punt Efficiency	52
Kickoff Efficiency	128
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	113

9. The best aspects of a bad unit are gone

Trevor Pardula was an awesome punter, and Nick Harwell was an awesome punt returner. They're gone, leaving behind unknown return men, a shaky place-kicker (Matthew Wyman), and maybe the worst coverage unit in the country.

KU ranked 52nd in punt efficiency despite Pardula's 44-yard average (and high rate of fair catches and punts inside the 20) and dead last in kickoff efficiency. And when you suffer losses in the receiving corps and defensive backfield, that's not going to help your coverage units.

One more time: yikes.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
5-Sep	South Dakota State	NR
12-Sep	Memphis	68
26-Sep	at Rutgers	79
3-Oct	at Iowa State	86
10-Oct	Baylor	14
17-Oct	Texas Tech	53
24-Oct	at Oklahoma State	43
31-Oct	Oklahoma	10
7-Nov	at Texas	36
14-Nov	at TCU	18
21-Nov	West Virginia	40
28-Nov	Kansas State	33

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-29.9% (117)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	69 / 67
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	3 / 0.0
2014 TO Luck/Game	+1.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	6 (3, 3)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	4.0 (-1.0)

10. There is no short road back from here

The KU defense seems to be in good hands with Bowen, and the offense will get a fresh start. Beaty isn't going to be signing top-15 classes at KU, but if he can at least raise the Jayhawks' recruiting to a consistent top-40 level, that would give them a higher level of talent than they're used to.

But my goodness, there's just no way to look at the roster Beaty inherits and make anything of 2015. The quarterback position went from mediocre to bad with Cummings' injury, there's almost no skill position experience, a bad offensive line gets younger, and the defense that carried so much weight starts over.

The best-case scenario is that KU improves into the 80s overall and looks better in November than it does in September. With that, you could say optimistic things about 2016. But there are virtually no proven playmakers, attrition has wiped out depth, and most of the winnable games on the slate come early.

Maybe the Jayhawks are able to ride an element of surprise to upset wins over Memphis or Rutgers or a road win over Iowa State. And hey, maybe a couple of early wins builds a higher-than-expected level of confidence. Anything's possible. But Beaty's first season as head man in Lawrence is probably going to be pretty similar to those of the last half-decade.

The question is whether it can provide some hope along the way.