Nebraska's set up for success in 2015. Can Mike Riley capitalize?

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1. Careful what you wish for ...

When a coach raises the bar for a program but then stops raising it, fans get impatient. And impatience can bring iffy decision-making.

-- 2015 Minnesota preview

But even though Nebraska has experienced the phenomenon of dumping a good coach because he's not great -- Frank Solich went 58-19 and got dumped after going 9-3; he was replaced by Bill Callahan, who went 27-22 -- one gets the impression Pelini isn't going to last much longer without a breakthrough season.

-- 2014 Nebraska preview

If they want to fire me, go ahead. I believe in what I have done and I don't apologize for anything I have done.

-- Bo Pelini

It was obvious how this marriage was going to end. It was only a question of when.

Warts and all, Bo Pelini won at a consistent level. Since ranking eighth in F/+ in 2009, Pelini engineered a finish between 20th and 30th in four of five seasons. Following a blip in 2013 -- the Huskers still went 9-4, as was customary, but ranked just 55th -- Pelini's charges rebounded to 30th, playing better than that for three-quarters of the year but suffering significant blips in big games.

The improvement didn't fend off what was certain. Nebraska fired Pelini, forgoing nine wins a year for the dream of more. It was a frustrating end for an obviously good coach, but it was a fresh start we knew would come.

But if Pelini's firing wasn't a surprise, Nebraska's replacement certainly was.

In Mike Riley, Nebraska elected to bring in a guy who a) is the opposite of Pelini in demeanor and b) only won more than nine games once in 14 years at Oregon State. The minuses (he won only 29 games in the last five years) and pluses (he won 70 games in 10 years at Oregon State ... just think of what he could do at a bigger program) of his hire were evident, and honestly, that makes it difficult to know what to expect. His friendly grandpa carriage means he will earn a level of goodwill that Pelini never did, and perhaps that means that on-the-field bar won't be as high.

Then again, Solich was a super-nice guy. He got dumped after averaging 9.7 wins. So forget that part.

We can debate whether Nebraska sets the bar too high, but we know that the 61-year-old Riley will get at least a few years to prove himself. He has crafted one of the most unique résumés in college football -- he won two Grey Cups with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, went 14-34 in the NFL, and won 93 games for a power-conference underdog -- and this will likely be his final entry. He inherits a roster that is fun but flawed.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 30
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Florida Atlantic	100	55-7	W	94%	36.2	100%
6-Sep	McNeese State	N/A	31-24	W	63%	8.0	98%
13-Sep	at Fresno State	102	55-19	W	94%	36.4	100%
20-Sep	Miami	31	41-31	W	70%	12.1	65%
27-Sep	Illinois	78	45-14	W	86%	25.3	100%
4-Oct	at Michigan State	11	22-27	L	27%	-14.5	0%
18-Oct	at Northwestern	71	38-17	W	90%	29.7	100%
25-Oct	Rutgers	81	42-24	W	91%	31.4	100%
1-Nov	Purdue	84	35-14	W	86%	25.0	100%
15-Nov	at Wisconsin	25	24-59	L	9%	-31.0	0%
22-Nov	Minnesota	37	24-28	L	35%	-9.1	15%
28-Nov	at Iowa	63	37-34	W	79%	19.2	93%
27-Dec	vs. USC	16	42-45	L	60%	5.7	44%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	35.4	28	25.1	46
Points Per Game	37.8	13	26.4	61

2. Three duds

Inevitable or not, Pelini's firing took place when it did because of three bad performances. Nebraska played at a top-20 level during the rest of the regular season, but when the Huskers slid, they slid a lot.

• Average Percentile Performance (3 regular-season losses): 24% (~top 100)
• Average Percentile Performance (9 regular-season wins): 84% (~top 20)

It was not always this stark, but this was a defining characteristic of the Pelini era. In 2014, the Huskers didn't just lose to Wisconsin, they watched as Melvin Gordon set a single-game rushing record. In 2013, they didn't just lose to UCLA and Iowa at home, they lost by a combined 41. In 2012, they lost to Ohio State and Wisconsin by a combined 64. In 2011, they lost to Wisconsin and Michigan by a combined 59.

In Pelini's last four seasons, he lost 15 games, but 11 were by double digits, and seven were by at least 20 points. He went 1-3 vs. Wisconsin, lost his last two against Minnesota, and his last two against Michigan State. And while his 2014 team bounced back after a tenuous 2013, it rarely played well against good competition.

• Average Percentile Performance (vs. F/+ top 40): 40% (record: 1-4)
• Average Percentile Performance (vs. No. 41-plus): 85% (record: 8-0)

One gets the impression that the magnitude of the losses were as important as the losses themselves. I understand that, even if I stick to my "Be careful what you wish for" attitude.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.94	24	IsoPPP+	116.4	34
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.6%	41	Succ. Rt. +	117.2	20
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.6	19	Def. FP+	106.0	13
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	66	Redzone S&P+	119.1	19
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.4		ACTUAL	25	+1.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	33	31	24	34
RUSHING	19	23	19	29
PASSING	82	41	50	36
Standard Downs		39	24	48
Passing Downs		16	28	14

Q1 Rk	23	1st Down Rk	33
Q2 Rk	50	2nd Down Rk	23
Q3 Rk	25	3rd Down Rk	69
Q4 Rk	34

3. A Danny Langsdorf offense

Combining carries and pass targets, Ameer Abdullah had nearly 23 intended touches per game and accounted for nearly 2,000 total yards. Abdullah and Kenny Bell combined to account for 35 percent of NU's targets and 1,059 receiving yards. Losing these two would have changed the identity of the offense even if Pelini hadn't been fired; perhaps this wasn't the worst time for change in the coaching booth.

I enjoyed writing about new coordinator Danny Langsdorf's Oregon State offenses through the years. From last year's OSU preview:

Langsdorf had helped craft what can be called (as a compliment) a "little-league offense," as in everybody touches the ball. Langsdorf and Riley (the play-caller) spread the ball around and gave playmakers opportunities.

In 2013, that meant giving 44 carries to receivers Brandin Cooks and Victor Bolden and targeting running backs Storm Woods and Terron Woods with 104 passes. Andy Staples wrote a lovely piece about Nick Saban and the "not Xs and Os, but Jimmies and Joes" principle; well, Oregon State's offense was the personification. Figure out what your guys can do, then get them the ball in ways that allow them to do it.

Langsdorf served as Riley's coordinator at Oregon State from 2005-13 before taking a job with the New York Giants last fall. He went to creative lengths to get the ball into his playmakers' hands, and while there were blips, the results were solid. In the eight seasons between 2006 and 2013, Oregon State's offense ranked between 16th and 31st in Off. S&P+ six times; there were a couple of stumbles (77th in 2007, 65th in 2011), but there was always a rebound.

Though the names atop Nebraska's skill hierarchy change, one assumes Riley and Langsdorf will find plenty of athletes deserving of the football.

• Running back Terrell Newby is a former blue-chipper who had a nice spring; he and big Amani Cross have hinted at between-the-tackles efficiency, and Newby did catch eight of 11 targets last season.
• As a No. 2 or No. 3 wideout, Jordan Westerkamp has averaged at least 11 yards per target in back-to-back seasons.
• De'Mornay Pierson-El's otherworldly punt return skills scream for a few bubble screens and jet sweeps.
• Jamal Turner is a spring legend who gets one last chance to produce after missing almost all of 2014 with an Achilles injury.
• Four other former four-stars (running backs Mikale Wilbon and Adam Taylor, receivers Alonzo Moore and Stanley Morgan) have opportunities to carve out a niche.

There are weapons. We'll see if incumbent quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. (or someone who can overtake him) is able to direct as Riley and Langsdorf require.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Tommy Armstrong Jr.	6'1, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9003	184	345	2695	22	12	53.3%	20	5.5%	7.1
Ryker Fyfe	6'2, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	4	10	40	1	0	40.0%	1	9.1%	3.2
Johnny Stanton	6'2, 230	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8946	1	1	6	0	0	100.0%	0	0.0%	6.0
AJ Bush	6'3, 220	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8044
Zach Darlington	6'2, 205	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8737

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Ameer Abdullah	RB					263	1618	19	6.2	6.7	41.1%	4	2
Tommy Armstrong Jr.	QB	6'1, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9003	125	803	6	6.4	6.1	47.2%	10	5
Imani Cross	RB	6'1, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9066	75	384	5	5.1	4.8	37.3%	1	1
Terrell Newby	RB	5'10, 200	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9404	67	297	5	4.4	3.2	38.8%	2	2
Jordan Nelson	RB	5'7, 180	Jr.	NR	NR	13	74	0	5.7	3.6	46.2%	0	0
Ryker Fyfe	QB	6'2, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	6	52	0	8.7	5.0	66.7%	0	0
De'Mornay Pierson-El	WR	5'9, 185	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8460	5	10	0	2.0	1.1	40.0%	4	2
Graham Nabity	RB	6'0, 210	Jr.	NR	NR
Adam Taylor	RB	6'2, 210	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9058
Mikale Wilbon	RB	5'8, 190	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8822
Devine Ozigbo	RB	5'11, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8560

4. A different role for the run game

Armstrong proved himself a typical dual-threat quarterback last year, and that isn't necessarily a bad thing.

He completed 53 percent of his passes with a sack rate over 5 percent and an interception rate over 3 percent, but he also rushed for more than 800 yards (not including sacks) and proved adept at getting the ball over the heads of defenders who were distracted by the run. He averaged nearly 15 yards per completion, and while Bell (54 percent catch rate, 16.8 yards per catch) was a big reason, Jordan Westerkamp was, too.

Riley's Oregon State offense required quite a bit of short passing -- in four years as a starter, Beaver quarterback Sean Mannion averaged 11.5 yards per completion, but with a completion rate nearly 65 percent -- and we'll see if Armstrong can pull that off. And we'll see how much the run can help him.

Assuming quicker receivers like Pierson-El [Update: He'll likely miss a few games due to a foot injury] and Turner play a role in the horizontal game, either via handoffs or extended handoffs (quick passes), that could stretch defenses enough to punish them with zone reads and between-the-tackles running by Newby and Cross. They haven't suggested they could become home run hitters like Abdullah, but that isn't necessarily their role. They will be asked to soften defenses up in the middle until they get burned on the outside. It isn't guaranteed to work, but it could.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Kenny Bell	WR					87	47	790	54.0%	25.6%	51.7%	9.1	201	9.4	111.2
Jordan Westerkamp	WR	6'0, 195	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9060	67	44	747	65.7%	19.7%	58.2%	11.1	217	11.2	105.2
De'Mornay Pierson-El	WR	5'9, 185	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8460	36	23	321	63.9%	10.6%	52.8%	8.9	43	8.7	45.2
Ameer Abdullah	RB					32	22	269	68.8%	9.4%	37.5%	8.4	6	6.6	37.9
Alonzo Moore	WR	6'2, 195	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8856	30	10	136	33.3%	8.8%	46.7%	4.5	-6	4.0	19.1
Jamal Turner (2013)	WR	6'1, 190	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9658	19	13	102	68.4%	5.3%	47.4%	5.4	-51	5.3	12.3
Taariq Allen	WR	6'3, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8291	17	8	73	47.1%	5.0%	47.1%	4.3	-30	3.7	10.3
Brandon Reilly	WR	6'1, 195	Jr.	NR	NR	15	6	83	40.0%	4.4%	53.3%	5.5	2	5.7	11.7
Terrell Newby	RB	5'10, 200	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9404	11	8	45	72.7%	3.2%	45.5%	4.1	-50	4.1	6.3
Cethan Carter	TE	6'4, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8572	10	6	98	60.0%	2.9%	70.0%	9.8	24	10.9	13.8
Sam Cotton	TE	6'4, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8181	9	3	41	33.3%	2.6%	55.6%	4.6	-2	4.4	5.8
Lane Hovey	WR	6'4, 205	Jr.	NR	NR	8	5	69	62.5%	2.4%	75.0%	8.6	8	8.4	9.7
Trey Foster	TE	6'0, 245	Jr.	NR	NR	3	1	6	33.3%	0.9%	33.3%	2.0	-8	1.3	0.8
Luke McNitt	TE	6'2, 240	Jr.	NR	NR
Lavan Alston (injured)	WR	6'0, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8832
Stanley Morgan	WR	6'0, 185	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8765
Matt Snyder	TE	6'5, 245	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8523

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	119.8	3.29	3.79	42.0%	68.5%	16.5%	103.0	6.1%	5.7%
Rank	11	24	21	31	58	28	63	91	38

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Jake Cotton	LG					24
Mike Moudy	RG					15
Alex Lewis	LT	6'6, 290	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8243	13
Mark Pelini	C					13
Zach Sterup	OL	6'8, 320	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8771	10
Givens Price	RT	6'4, 310	Sr.	NR	0.8382	3
Dylan Utter	LG	6'1, 285	Jr.	NR	NR	1
Ryne Reeves	OL	6'3, 300	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8988	1
Chongo Kondolo	RG	6'4, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8167	0
Matt Finnin	RT	6'7, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8000	0
Paul Thurston	C	6'5, 295	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9357	0
David Knevel	LT	6'9, 310	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8767	0
Zach Hannon	C	6'5, 305	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8625	0
Tanner Farmer	OL	6'4, 310	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9021
Nick Gates	OL	6'5, 290	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8929
Jerald Foster	OL	6'3, 310	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8708
Jalin Barnett	OL	6'4, 310	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9207
Christian Gaylord	OL	6'6, 275	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8882
Michael Decker	OL	6'4, 285	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8544

5. A surprisingly good line rebuilds again

I was pretty concerned about NU's line heading into last season; it had performed at a top-50 level but had to replace five players with 125 career starts and entered 2014 with just 15, mostly from guard Jake Cotton.

But while the sack rates ended up iffy, the run stats were great. Granted, you can pin some of the sack issues on Armstrong and some of the run-blocking success on Abdullah, but the line played at the same level despite losing so many starters.

This year, the Huskers try to avoid a double-dipping issue. A year after losing five experienced starters, Nebraska loses three more. Senior tackle Alex Lewis is a keeper, and there are still plenty of juniors and seniors, but when you have to dip into the well twice in two years, depth issues rear their heads. I bet NU avoids serious deficiencies, but it's a red flag.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.90	94	IsoPPP+	104.3	56
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.9%	32	Succ. Rt. +	105.9	43
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	36.1	1	Off. FP+	109.0	8
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.5	82	Redzone S&P+	91.0	99
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.7		ACTUAL	23.0	-0.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	53	49	42	56
RUSHING	80	88	81	93
PASSING	33	18	13	25
Standard Downs		49	59	52
Passing Downs		52	28	72

Q1 Rk	32	1st Down Rk	29
Q2 Rk	62	2nd Down Rk	83
Q3 Rk	85	3rd Down Rk	41
Q4 Rk	9

6. A Mark Banker defense

Riley is a loyal guy. In Langsdorf and Mark Banker, he found two coordinators he liked and stuck with them through occasional shaky years. Banker's philosophy is like Langsdorf's on offense -- figure out what your athletes can do, and craft an identity around that -- and like Langsdorf, there have been hits and misses. Oregon State ranked in the Def. S&P+ top 25 in 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2012 and 65th or worse in 2005, 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2014.

Banker's 2014 Oregon State defense was perilously thin, wore down over the course of a half (58th and seventh in the first and third quarters, and 103rd and 110th in the second and fourth) and struggled to stop the run.

The Beavers created decent havoc numbers, but despite a solid pass defense, run deficiencies led to big plays.

Meanwhile, last year's Nebraska defense created decent havoc numbers, but despite a solid pass defense, run deficiencies led to big plays.

This is familiar territory for Banker, if nothing else.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	93.2	3.18	3.26	37.0%	56.1%	17.2%	84.1	5.0%	4.6%
Rank	93	98	65	41	11	98	93	52	113

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Randy Gregory	DE					11	38.5	5.5%	8.5	7.0	1	3	1	0
Greg McMullen	DE	6'3, 280	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9068	13	33.5	4.8%	7.0	4.0	0	4	0	0
Vincent Valentine	DT	6'3, 320	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8744	13	32.5	4.7%	6.5	3.0	0	2	1	0
Maliek Collins	DT	6'2, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8661	13	31.0	4.5%	10.5	4.5	0	0	0	0
Jack Gangwish	DE	6'2, 265	Sr.	NR	NR	12	13.0	1.9%	3.0	0.5	0	1	1	0
Kevin Williams	DT	6'2, 275	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8631	10	12.0	1.7%	6.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Maurice	DT	6'3, 280	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8286	10	5.0	0.7%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Logan Rath	DT	6'4, 280	Jr.	NR	NR	2	2.5	0.4%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Joe Keels	DE	6'3, 265	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8790
Ross Dzuris	DE	6'3, 250	Jr.	NR	NR
A.J. Natter	DE	6'5, 250	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8903
Peyton Newell	DL	6'3, 270	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8882
Freedom Akinmoladun	DE	6'4, 255	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8575
Mick Stoltenberg	DT	6'5, 265	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8296
Sedrick King	DE	6'4, 240	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8224
Carlos Davis	DT	6'2, 265	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8891
Khalil Davis	DT	6'2, 265	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8730
Daishon Neal	DE	6'7, 250	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8588

7. This line was bad with Gregory

Randy Gregory entered 2014 as a projected top-10 draft pick, but he struggled with injury and double-teams, and his stats suffered, especially against the run. He was still a strong pass rusher (9.5 sacks in 2013, seven in 2014), but he made far fewer run stuffs (6.5 non-sack tackles for loss in 2013, 1.5 in 2014), and he just didn't get enough help. Nebraska's run defense, a weakness in 2013, remained so last fall. And now the pass rush must also be rebuilt with Gregory off to the NFL.

There are plenty of options. NU boasts nine junior and senior linemen and 10 former high-three- or four-star recruits, and in Vincent Valentine and Maliek Collins, the Huskers have a couple of tackles who combine immense size with quickness. But the whole was still less than the sum of the parts last year. That's not guaranteed to change.

There's plenty of new blood at linebacker. Last year's two primary linebackers (Zaire Anderson and Trevor Roach) are gone, and Michael Rose-Ivey returns after missing 2014. Anderson and Roach provided a little bit of desperately needed playmaking against the run, and Anderson broke up five passes. The line better improve because the linebackers might not.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Zaire Anderson	LB					13	75.5	10.9%	10.5	2.0	0	5	3	0
Michael Rose-Ivey (2013)	LB	5'11, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9010	12	51.5	7.3%	5.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Trevor Roach	LB					12	47.5	6.8%	6.0	1.0	0	2	1	1
David Santos	LB	6'0, 225	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8736	10	35.5	5.1%	1.5	0.0	1	0	0	0
Josh Banderas	LB	6'2, 235	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9053	12	34.5	5.0%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Austin Williams	LB					13	10.0	1.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Courtney Love	LB					12	5.0	0.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Chris Weber	LB	6'3, 220	So.	NR	NR	13	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Newby	LB	6'1, 220	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8941	9	2.0	0.3%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Brad Simpson	LB	6'0, 220	Jr.	NR	NR	10	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Luke Gifford	LB	6'3, 215	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8460
Dedrick Young	LB	6'1, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8609

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Nate Gerry	S	6'2, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8534	13	68.5	9.9%	4.5	0.5	5	4	2	1
Corey Cooper	S					12	59.5	8.6%	2	0	1	1	2	0
Josh Mitchell	CB					13	36.0	5.2%	2	2	1	13	0	1
Daniel Davie	CB	6'1, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8532	13	33.0	4.7%	5	0	2	5	0	0
LeRoy Alexander (2013)	S	6'0, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8071	13	31.0	4.4%	1	0	1	1	0	1
Joshua Kalu	CB	6'1, 175	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8429	13	23.5	3.4%	1	0	1	3	2	1
Byerson Cockrell	S	6'0, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8370	13	23.5	3.4%	1	0	1	7	0	0
Jonathan Rose	CB	6'1, 195	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9367	13	15.5	2.2%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Joey Felici	CB					13	8.5	1.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kieron Williams	S	6'0, 190	So.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	13	6.5	0.9%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Chris Jones	CB	6'0, 170	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8233	12	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Charles Jackson (2013)	S	5'11, 180	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9605	13	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Boaz Joseph	CB	6'1, 190	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8422
Trai Mosley	DB	5'10, 170	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8282
Eric Lee Jr.	DB	6'0, 180	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9414
Avery Anderson	DB	6'0, 175	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8935
Aaron Williams	DB	5'11, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8610

8. The secondary could succeed with help

Despite continued issues against the run, Nebraska's defense improved from mediocre (66th in Def. S&P+) to solid (46th) because the pass defense went from solid to very good. There were glitches -- Miami and USC combined to complete 51 of 81 for 680 yards, six touchdowns, and three picks -- but for the season, opponents completed 48.5 percent (second-lowest in FBS) with a 104.8 passer rating (fourth-lowest). And NU did this despite a pass rush that was lacking.

The loss of safety Corey Cooper and incredibly underrated corner Josh Mitchell could stem progress, but corner Daniel Davie does return, and Joshua Kalu had his moments as a freshman. Plus, safety LeRoy Alexander returns from suspension. [Update: Alexander is transferring.]

As with the rest of the defense, experience is not an issue. The two-deep could feature as many as three seniors and three juniors, but there might be roles for younger players like Boaz Joseph, or incoming four-stars Eric Lee Jr. and Avery Anderson, if they thrive in fall camp. And if the run defense improves, the pass defense should hold its own.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Sam Foltz	6'1, 200	Jr.	63	42.2	5	20	26	73.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Drew Brown	5'11, 180	So.	47	60.0	14	1	29.8%
Mauro Bondi	6'0, 210	Sr.	34	63.9	15	0	44.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Drew Brown	5'11, 180	So.	59-59	12-14	85.7%	2-7	28.6%
Mauro Bondi	6'0, 210	Sr.	1-1	0-0		1-1	100.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Ameer Abdullah	KR			14	28.0	0
De'Mornay Pierson-El	KR	5'9, 175	So.	10	14.7	0
De'Mornay Pierson-El	PR	5'9, 175	So.	34	17.5	3
Kieron Williams	PR	6'0, 185	So.	2	14.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	6
Field Goal Efficiency	92
Punt Return Efficiency	1
Kick Return Efficiency	16
Punt Efficiency	70
Kickoff Efficiency	95
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	5

9. Maybe the best special teams weapon in the country

Special teams was long a Pelini strength; Nebraska ranked between sixth and 18th in special teams efficiency six times in seven years, and just about all of the reasons for their 2014 surge are back.

Drew Brown was a steady place-kicker as a freshman (though he was a bit lacking in kickoff distance and on longer field goals), and Sam Foltz's punts are high and long. Ameer Abdullah was an awesome returner, but it's hard to mourn his departure if it means more opportunities for De'Mornay Pierson-El.

We all enjoy good players no matter the position, but we also have our types, the positions or players who get us particularly jazzed up. For some of us, it's a burly running back. For others, it's a killer defensive tackle or a ball-hawking safety. One of my favorite archetypes is the show-stopping return man. From Notre Dame's Rocket Ismail on punts to Colorado's Ben Kelly at the turn of the century, I enjoy great return men a little bit more. (Second place: the long-legged gazelle receivers.)

That means Pierson-El is one of my favorite players at the moment. He's still learning at the receiver position, and as with Kelly and others, there's never any guarantee that a great return guy will thrive on offense or defense. But despite woeful run defense and iffy punt and kick coverage, Nebraska was one of the best field position teams in the country, and Pierson-El was a major reason.

He had a 25-yard return against McNeese State, an 86-yarder against Fresno State, a 62-yarder against Michigan State, a 42-yarder against Purdue, and a game-turning 80-yarder in the fourth quarter against Iowa. He is electric. His Twitter handle is @DontPunt_15, but ... please punt to him! Do it for me.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
5-Sep	BYU	45
12-Sep	South Alabama	98
19-Sep	at Miami	28
26-Sep	Southern Miss	108
3-Oct	at Illinois	63
10-Oct	Wisconsin	25
17-Oct	at Minnesota	42
24-Oct	Northwestern	62
31-Oct	at Purdue	74
7-Nov	Michigan State	9
14-Nov	at Rutgers	79
27-Nov	Iowa	57

Five-Year F/+ Rk	22.1% (26)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	30 / 23
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-2 / 0.4
2014 TO Luck/Game	-0.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (6, 6)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	9.1 (-0.1)

10. An opportunity

The Big Ten is a strangely clustered conference. Ohio State is the clear No. 1, and I think Michigan State will still be a clear No. 2, but any of five teams (Wisconsin, Nebraska, Penn State, Michigan, Minnesota) could jump to No. 3, and there's barely any separation among the other seven.

Opportunity awaits each team in that No. 3-8 tier, and Nebraska gets Wisconsin and Michigan State at home. Plus, only one of four conference road opponents is projected higher than 63rd. If Langsdorf and Riley are able to press the right buttons on offense, and if the run defense can be mediocre for the first time in three years, Nebraska's got a shot at a really nice season. [Update: Riley said that five to-be-named players will be suspended for the Huskers' opener against BYU.]

Like everybody else in the Huskers' tier, the range of outcomes is wide, but the light road slate makes theirs less questionable than others', and if they beat Wisconsin, they could be in excellent shape of winning the Big Ten West.

Riley is a lovely representative of a university, and he's done all the right things since taking the job. He's undeniably brought happiness, but he still has to win.