If Iowa State football has any underdog magic left, now's the time

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1. Now or never

Paul Rhoads is playing the long game. Quite a few of his better players are young, and he's not exactly on a win-or-else hot seat. But with Big 12 contenders Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma visiting Ames, it's not a bad idea to score another upset and remind locals why he became so popular in the first place.

Honestly, I expect another down year. I'm optimistic about the offense, but a) I'll be more optimistic about the offense in 2015, and b) I'm terrified for this defense. Perhaps there's more upside than there has been. But it will probably take a year to realize potential.

-- 2014 Iowa State guide

You can survive in Ames winning six games a year, especially if some of those wins are memorable.

Rhoads earned a reputation as a high-caliber motivator; he went 24-27 in his first four seasons, but he made the wins count. He beat Iowa twice, won at Texas and Nebraska, and knocked Oklahoma State out of the 2011 BCS Championship with a 37-31 late-November win. His Cyclones reached three bowls and scared the daylights out of the fan bases of every good team on the schedule, even if that fear was warranted less often than not.

As I always say, however, hard jobs remain hard. And when your recruiting never comes around -- when you're still pulling in top-70 classes while most in your league are in the top 40 -- it will catch up to you. Rhoads has never been able to build a deep squad, and in 2014, that bit him like never before. His Cyclones were hit hard by injuries, and the underbelly was exposed, especially on defense. After three straight top-50 Def. S&P+ finishes between 2010-12, ISU disintegrated to 115th.

In last year's preview, I mentioned that I had hope for the offense in 2015. That remains the case; new coordinator Mangino managed to wrangle improvement despite injuries, and now he returns his quarterback, some exciting receivers, and a strong line. After years of holding ISU back, there's a path to success for the offense.

And now the defense needs a rebuild. Good injuries luck and some JUCO transfers could help to stabilize the Cyclones, but we're dealing with ifs and coulds. Relying on two JUCOs in particular to plug a gaping hole in run D, for instance, could work, but it usually doesn't.

It's probably now or never for Rhoads in Ames. The offense should move forward again, and the defense brings in some newcomers and, for now at least, gets healthy.

After slipping to 92nd in the F/+ rankings, the Cyclones should rebound. But if they don't, hope is all but lost. And if they don't at least crawl back into the 70s, it's hard to envision a second dawn in the Rhoads era.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 | Adj. Record: 3-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 92
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	North Dakota State	N/A	14-34	L	5%	-37.5	1%
6-Sep	Kansas State	26	28-32	L	51%	0.7	14%
13-Sep	at Iowa	63	20-17	W	64%	8.3	54%
27-Sep	Baylor	10	28-49	L	22%	-18.3	0%
4-Oct	at Oklahoma State	75	20-37	L	39%	-6.6	20%
11-Oct	Toledo	59	37-30	W	78%	18.1	73%
18-Oct	at Texas	53	45-48	L	44%	-3.4	19%
1-Nov	Oklahoma	19	14-59	L	11%	-28.4	0%
8-Nov	at Kansas	99	14-34	L	17%	-22.6	7%
22-Nov	Texas Tech	82	31-34	L	40%	-5.6	27%
29-Nov	West Virginia	40	24-37	L	36%	-8.6	10%
6-Dec	at TCU	6	3-55	L	12%	-26.9	0%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	28.7	63	37.0	115
Points Per Game	23.2	99	38.8	118

2. Minimal upset karma

There are two ways to look at Iowa State's 2014.

Option 1: injuries broke the Cyclones, dragging them from below average to awful.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 7 games): 43% (~top 75 | record: 2-5)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 5 games): 23% (~top 100 | record: 0-5)

This would make sense. For most teams (especially those without superior talent), continuity is vital, and ISU had none. Quarterback Sam B. Richardson missed time with injury, only one running back played in all 12 games, and after losing its 2013 leader to injury in the preseason, the receiving corps only managed to keep two players on the field for all 12 games. Meanwhile, the back seven of the defense was shuffling personnel from the start of the season to the end.

When your squad is thin, you will give out when you face that level of in-season turnover.

Option 2: ISU had nothing to offer against strong teams.

• Average Percentile Performance (vs. F/+ top 25): 15% (avg. score: Opp 54, ISU 15)
• Average Percentile Performance (vs. No. 31-plus): 42% (avg. score: Opp 34, ISU 26)

For the third time in four years, ISU took down Iowa and nearly did the same to a solid Kansas State despite getting outgained by 152 yards. But the upset karma has been just about tapped. The Cyclones needed a punt return score and some KSU miscues in scoring opportunities to stay close to the Wildcats, and against teams better than KSU, there was no hope. The run defense was dismal, and nothing else was good enough to pick up the slack.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.75	116	IsoPPP+	89.3	95
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.7%	75	Succ. Rt. +	108.0	40
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.1	34	Def. FP+	103.0	33
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	78	Redzone S&P+	111.1	38
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.8		ACTUAL	16	-6.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	92	73	44	95
RUSHING	108	58	34	79
PASSING	51	82	47	96
Standard Downs		81	62	88
Passing Downs		65	25	96

Q1 Rk	71	1st Down Rk	101
Q2 Rk	83	2nd Down Rk	104
Q3 Rk	92	3rd Down Rk	105
Q4 Rk	67

3. Mangino had an impact on efficiency

It was one of those storylines that TV announcers crave. You have to fill more than three hours in a television broadcast, and there's a 30-second break between every play. (Well, in the Big 12, it's probably not 30 seconds, but still.) You're going to end up falling back on narratives, and for ISU, the narrative was "Mangino's back, and he's saving the ISU offense!"

Mangino, Kansas' head coach the last time the Jayhawks were anything but awful, returned to the FBS ranks after a five-year absence. And basically every time the offense made a good play, Mangino's presence was the first thing that got mentioned. (The KSU game was particularly funny; ISU averaged 4.6 yards per play and scored on three of 11 possessions, but Mangino seemed to get mentioned more than Rhoads on the broadcast.)

Announcers may have jumped the gun (and hey, it's more fun to talk about him than the ISU defense), but Mangino had an impact. Despite quarterback Richardson again dealing with injuries late in the season, and despite constant uncertainty when it came to who would be available to run or catch, the Cyclones' efficiency numbers improved. ISU moved from 64th to 40th in Success Rate+, staying ahead of the chains with Mangino's patented, Todd Reesing-esque dink-and-dunk style, and even figuring out ways to catch back up once in passing downs situations. And they again finished drives pretty well to boot.

With a lot returning in the passing game and on the offensive line, we can assume another rather efficient ISU offense even if the running back position remains in flux.

But there's no evidence that the Cyclones will do any better from a big-play perspective. ISU ranked 95th in IsoPPP+ in both 2013 and 2014 and produced just 16 gains of 30-plus yards last year, 118th in the country. Efficiency is any offense's lifeblood, but big plays save you from having to play without error. ISU had to move methodically to score, and eventually mistakes derailed drives.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Sam Richardson	6'2, 214	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8083	254	451	2669	18	9	56.3%	26	5.5%	5.2
Grant Rohach	6'2, 212	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8621	27	54	283	2	1	50.0%	4	6.9%	4.3
Joel Lanning	6'2, 232	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8120
Dominic DeLira	6'1, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8060

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Aaron Wimberly	RB					147	642	7	4.4	4.0	33.3%	1	1
Sam Richardson	QB	6'2, 214	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8083	99	589	3	5.9	3.8	56.6%	4	1
DeVondrick Nealy	RB					71	273	1	3.8	5.3	26.8%	2	1
Tyler Brown	RB	5'11, 186	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8312	24	109	0	4.5	3.5	37.5%	0	0
Martinez Syria	RB					20	47	1	2.4	1.2	15.0%	0	0
Grant Rohach	QB	6'2, 212	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8621	4	21	0	5.3	4.5	25.0%	2	1
Mike Warren	RB	6'0, 196	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8593
Joshua Thomas	RB	5'11, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8528
Sheldon Croney	RB	5'11, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8189

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Allen Lazard	WR-X	6'5, 218	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9616	93	46	592	49.5%	19.0%	58.1%	6.4	4	6.4	69.4
Quenton Bundrage (2013)	WR-F	6'2, 192	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8238	91	48	673	52.7%	24.1%	52.5%	7.4	27	7.0	83.3
Jarvis West	WR-F					76	46	349	60.5%	15.5%	56.6%	4.6	-214	4.6	40.9
E.J. Bibbs	TE					72	45	382	62.5%	14.7%	62.5%	5.3	-165	5.5	44.8
D'Vario Montgomery	WR-Z	6'6, 236	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9274	67	44	605	65.7%	13.7%	62.7%	9.0	75	9.1	70.9
Aaron Wimberly	RB					42	27	209	64.3%	8.6%	52.4%	5.0	-117	5.0	24.5
Dondre Daley	WR-Z	6'2, 188	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8116	41	21	208	51.2%	8.4%	43.9%	5.1	-58	4.9	24.4
DeVondrick Nealy	RB					29	18	187	62.1%	5.9%	51.7%	6.4	-32	6.7	21.9
Tad Ecby	WR-X					21	8	236	38.1%	4.3%	42.9%	11.2	127	12.3	27.7
Jauan Wesley	WR-F	5'11, 181	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8391	20	10	107	50.0%	4.1%	70.0%	5.4	-20	6.3	12.5
P.J. Harris	WR					10	9	55	90.0%	2.0%	40.0%	5.5	-48	5.1	6.4
Ben Boesen	TE	6'6, 241	Sr.	NR	NR	3	0	0	0.0%	0.6%	66.7%	0.0	-4	0.0	0.0
Quan West	TE	6'4, 233	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8383	2	0	0	0.0%	0.4%	50.0%	0.0	-3	0.0	0.0
Brandon Harris	WR	6'0, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7998
Justin Chandler	TE	6'4, 272	Jr.	NR	NR
Cole Anderson	TE	6'4, 275	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8352
Darius Lee-Campbell	WR	6'2, 214	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8230
Denver Johnson	WR	6'3, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8357

4. Still need playmakers

That Richardson broke even was, in and of itself, an accomplishment. He was battling injuries, his run game was mostly ineffective (combined, only 31 of carries by Aaron Wimberly and DeVondrick Nealy gained at least five yards), and his most proven receiver, Quenton Bundrage, was on the sideline in street clothes.

Throwing primarily to freshmen and sophomores, frequently on second- or third-and-long, Richardson managed to improve his completion rate from 55 percent to 56.3, cut his interception rate from 3.2 percent to 2, and keep his meager per-attempt average above 5 yards. These aren't amazing numbers, but again, he got no help from big plays.

There might not be much hope at running back, where sophomore Tyler Brown (who did lead ISU backs in efficiency) is the only returnee with any experience. But between Bundrage's return and the further development of sophomore Allen Lazard (the rare blue-chipper on the roster) and big D'Vario Montgomery, you can talk yourself into ISU again crafting a physical short passing game.

And if you've got three big options, you might be able to spring one deep occasionally. Lazard averaged 14.5 yards per catch over the first half of 2014 before slowing, and Bundrage and Montgomery each approached that same average in their respective last seasons. There's potential for more balance between efficiency and explosiveness.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	111.6	3.03	3.43	37.7%	61.3%	20.7%	103.4	4.0%	8.3%
Rank	30	56	52	81	105	84	62	47	79

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Tom Farniok	C					47
Jacob Gannon	RT					21
Daniel Burton	RG	6'6, 330	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8279	20
Jamison Lalk	C	6'6, 311	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8065	19
Brock Dagel	RT	6'8, 306	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8081	15
Jake Campos	LT	6'8, 295	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8918	11
Oni Omoile	LG	6'3, 307	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR	10
Jacob Dunning	OL	6'5, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	1
Wendell Taiese	LG	6'6, 354	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8215	0
Nick Fett	RT	6'7, 313	Jr.	NR	NR	0
Nick Severs	C	6'4, 279	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8256	0
Shawn Curtis	LT	6'5, 293	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8382	0
Jacob Homa	OL	6'4, 290	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8249	0
Ryan Glenn	RG	6'4, 301	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8047	0
Kory Kodanko	OL	6'5, 316	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8241
Patrick Scoggins	RG	6'1, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7957
Jaypee Philbert	OL	6'4, 305	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8528
Julian Good-Jones	OL	6'5, 275	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8513
Bryce Meeker	OL	6'5, 300	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8306

5. The line is ready

First things first: Mangino and Richardson helped the line quite a bit. Richardson is an efficient scrambler who helped ISU's run blocking stats, and the quick passing game kept sacks low on standard downs. So while ranking 30th in Adj. Line Yards and 62nd in Adj. Sack Rate seems nice, the line wasn't responsible for all of the positivity. Plus, ISU stunk in short-yardage and didn't pick up blitzes very well.

So maybe I'm overestimating the line. But it seems like there's quite a bit to like. Joshua Brown seemed reasonably capable of taking advantage of his blocks, and he'll be running behind some hosses. The six returnees with starting experience average 6'6, 308; both tackles are at least 6'8, and the top three returning guards average 330. Size isn't everything, but at the least, this unit isn't a weakness.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.83	55	IsoPPP+	86.6	110
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	52.3%	128	Succ. Rt. +	84.0	121
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	27.5	118	Off. FP+	97.0	99
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.9	110	Redzone S&P+	92.3	94
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.0		ACTUAL	16.0	-2.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	128	115	121	110
RUSHING	123	126	127	123
PASSING	122	88	105	70
Standard Downs		119	125	118
Passing Downs		65	91	49

Q1 Rk	115	1st Down Rk	119
Q2 Rk	102	2nd Down Rk	115
Q3 Rk	102	3rd Down Rk	74
Q4 Rk	89

6. Bend and break

There's nothing sadder than a defense that is decent on passing downs but can't force any. ISU had an okay pass rush and a secondary with up to five players capable of making plays on the ball. But run defense was such a nightmare that it forced even the secondary to remain passive on standard downs. Opponents were free to move via ground or air on first-and-10, and there wasn't much the Cyclones could do about it.

These struggles made sense, really. ISU had to completely rebuild after losing seven of 11 contributors from 2013. End Cory Morrissey, just about the only major contributor returning up front, had a nice year as a pass rusher, but a new set of tackles made almost no plays and struggled to occupy blockers. And the back seven, tasked with picking up the slack, couldn't keep the same seven players on the field.

That we can explain ISU's struggles might be encouraging. Now you've got experience (and a little bit of new blood) up front, and your back seven might be able to stay healthy. That alone should get ISU back into the double digits in the Def. S&P+ rankings. But there still has to be talent here, and outside of the secondary, it's difficult to feel too confident in its existence.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	80.6	3.55	3.98	49.6%	78.7%	14.8%	64	2.1%	7.0%
Rank	125	124	123	127	120	119	118	119	72

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Cory Morrissey	DE					12	40.0	5.2%	8.5	6.0	0	1	1	0
Trent Taylor	DE	6'2, 257	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8840	12	27.5	3.5%	5.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Dale Pierson	DE	6'2, 246	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8163	12	24.0	3.1%	4.5	2.0	0	0	1	0
Mitchell Meyers	DT	6'4, 260	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8298	12	23.0	3.0%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darius White	DE	6'1, 251	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.7996	12	12.0	1.5%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Vernell Trent	NG	6'3, 289	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8094	12	7.5	1.0%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Devlyn Cousin	DT	6'4, 302	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7984	9	7.0	0.9%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Jensen	NG					9	6.0	0.8%	2.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Robby Garcia	DT	6'4, 281	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7888	12	5.5	0.7%	1.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Pierre Aka	DT	6'4, 313	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8526	7	4.0	0.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Gabe Luna	DE	6'2, 250	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8041
Terry Ayeni	DT	6'2, 278	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8474
J.D. Waggoner	DE	6'3, 245	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8029
Demond Tucker	DT	6'0, 287	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8722
Bobby Leath	DT	6'3, 310	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463
De'Amontae Jackson	DT	6'0, 285	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8590
Seth Nerness	DE	6'4, 235	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8211

7. No pressure, new guys

Demond Tucker talks a big game and, by ISU standards, brings quite a high recruiting ranking to Ames. The bowling ball-shaped JUCO transfer was the story of spring ball, bringing a boost of energy.

If Tucker and fellow JUCO Bobby Leath are able to supplement the two-deep, then the Cyclones' biggest 2014 issue could be somewhat rectified. ISU got almost nothing from its tackles and must now replace its best end. The presence of Tucker and Leath could allow for ISU to use only the best tackle or two from last year's rotation -- Mitchell Meyers, Vernell Trent, Robby Garcia, Pierre Aka.

Getting more from the tackles is a requirement not only because it's hard to have a good defense without it, but also because the linebacking corps is retooling. Luke Knott returns, and Kane Seeley and Brian Mills got more experience last year than expected, but Jevohn Miller and Jared Brackens were rare playmakers for this front seven, and they're gone.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Luke Knott	WLB	6'1, 221	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8056	12	55.5	7.2%	3.5	0.0	1	0	0	0
Jevohn Miller	MLB					8	52.0	6.7%	3.5	1.0	0	2	0	1
Jared Brackens	SLB					12	45.5	5.9%	7.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Drake Ferch	SLB					11	41.0	5.3%	1.5	0.5	0	2	0	0
Kane Seeley	MLB	6'2, 241	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	12	38.0	4.9%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Brian Mills	WLB	5'10, 233	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7926	12	23.0	3.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Levi Peters (2013)	WLB	5'11, 213	Jr.	NR	NR	12	12.5	1.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Alton Meeks	MLB					11	8.5	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Jordan Harris	MLB	6'0, 233	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7852
Reggan Northrup	SLB	6'1, 191	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8131
Sam Seonbuchner	LB	6'2, 236	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8272
Bobby McMillen	LB	6'1, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8389
Marcel Spears	LB	6'1, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8244

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kamari Cotton-Moya	FS	6'1, 194	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8076	12	66.0	8.5%	2	0	0	8	0	0
T.J. Mutcherson	SS					10	66.0	8.5%	2	0	2	4	1	0
Nigel Tribune	CB	5'11, 188	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8095	11	56.5	7.3%	2	0	3	13	0	0
Sam E. Richardson	CB	5'8, 189	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8300	12	52.5	6.8%	1.5	0	4	6	0	0
Kenneth Lynn	CB	5'10, 168	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8407	12	28.0	3.6%	3.5	0	0	10	0	0
Qujuan Floyd	SS	6'0, 202	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8156	11	27.5	3.5%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Darian Cotton	SS	5'11, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8259	12	19.5	2.5%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Kamari Syrie	FS					12	10.5	1.4%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Josh Jahlas	DB	6'2, 203	Jr.	NR	NR	11	7.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Matthew Thomas	CB					11	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Matt Swoyer	DB	5'11, 185	Jr.	NR	NR	4	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brian Peavy	CB	5'9, 184	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8094
Jarnor Jones	NB	6'3, 203	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8000
Jomal Wiltz	CB	5'10, 174	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7833
Mike Johnson	DB	5'11, 182	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8578
Stephon Brown	DB	6'0, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8020

8. Just give the secondary a little help

I don't want to overstate the quality in the secondary; ISU gave up 130 passes of at least 10 yards (109th in the country) and 16 of 40-plus (122nd), after all. But most of the damage was done on standard downs, when even the secondary was preoccupied with the run. On passing downs, with just a decent pass rush, the secondary was able to prevent big plays and get hands on passes.

The top four returnees (safety Kamari Cotton-Moya and corners Nigel Tribune, Sam E. Richardson, and Kenneth Lynn) combined for nine tackles for loss, seven picks, and 37 break-ups, a damn near heroic effort given the defensive deficiencies.

This isn't a physically imposing unit; the top three corners average just 5'10, 182. But there's experience, and JUCO transfers Jarnor Jones and Jomal Wiltz and mid-three-star freshman Mike Johnson could contribute early. The two-deep in the secondary should be the least of ISU's concerns. If the run numbers improve, the pass numbers almost certainly will, too.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Colin Downing	5'11, 190	So.	69	39.4	0	29	13	60.9%
Holden Kramer	6'3, 184	So.	7	29.9	0	3	7	142.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Cole Netten	6'1, 219	Jr.	56	61.5	13	3	23.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Cole Netten	6'1, 219	Jr.	35-35	9-10	90.0%	2-4	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Aaron Wimberly	KR			14	23.4	0
Jarvis West	KR			8	18.0	0
Jarvis West	PR			8	14.4	1
Aaron Wimberly	PR			3	13.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	62
Field Goal Efficiency	50
Punt Return Efficiency	61
Kick Return Efficiency	109
Punt Efficiency	61
Kickoff Efficiency	41
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	128

9. Coffin corner experts

ISU's special teams unit was neither a strength nor a weakness in 2014 -- solid kicks were offset by mostly nonexistent returns. (Jarvis West's punt return score against Kansas State was just about the only bright spot.) West and Aaron Wimberly are gone, which means a complete reset in returns (maybe not a bad thing), but the legs will again be a strength.

Cole Netten emerged as a strong kicker, and the punter combination of freshmen Colin Downing and Holden Kramer was outstanding. Nearly half of Downing's punts were fair caught, and all seven of Kramer's punts were stopped inside the 20. That's a severe field position weapon to be exploited if you're getting anything from your returns.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
5-Sep	Northern Iowa	NR
12-Sep	Iowa	57
19-Sep	at Toledo	69
3-Oct	Kansas	95
10-Oct	at Texas Tech	53
17-Oct	TCU	18
24-Oct	at Baylor	14
31-Oct	Texas	36
7-Nov	at Oklahoma	10
14-Nov	Oklahoma State	43
21-Nov	at Kansas State	33
28-Nov	at West Virginia	40

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-6.5% (73)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	67 / 66
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	0 / -4.7
2014 TO Luck/Game	+2.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (6, 7)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	2.3 (-0.3)

10. The wins come early

An experienced, healthy squad should start the season fully formed. There aren't many new starters to break in, and depth should be solid until or unless injuries take their toll. So in theory, Iowa State should be pretty decent in September.

This is good because the Cyclones play only five teams projected to rank lower than 43rd, and they account for the first five games on the schedule. The Cyclones won't win all five, but a top-70 team will have an outside shot at a 4-1 start. Get to that point, squeeze out home wins against beatable Texas and Oklahoma State teams, and voila: a return to bowl eligibility.

That path has almost no margin for error. When you fall to 92nd overall, it's hard to expect a rebound of more than about 20 spots, and even that would make ISU an underdog most of the time against this schedule.

After stockpiling so much goodwill, it appears Rhoads has spent most of it. Five wins and stark regression over two years have put him in a tight spot, and now he has to hope that an increasingly efficient offense and a couple of JUCO defensive tackles can pave the road for further improvement in 2016.