Despite all this change, Wisconsin is still the Big Ten West's safest bet

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. The case for Paul Chryst

The Wisconsin program is a massive contradiction.

The Badgers are about to be on their third coach in four seasons following the departure of Bret Bielema for Arkansas in 2013 and the shocking departure of Gary Andersen for Oregon State this past offseason. We hear rumors about the heavy-handed rule of athletic director (and sometimes head coach) Barry Alvarez. We hear it's a hard job because of assistant coaching salaries or academic standards or any other reason.

We also see Wisconsin hasn't ranked outside of the F/+ top 25 since 2008. Change and potential discord have reared their heads, and it hasn't in any noticeable way impacted the Badgers' level of play.

Arkansas State has taught us that identity and support go a long way toward surviving coaching changes. The Red Wolves changed coaches for four straight years and averaged more than eight wins per year anyway.

Wisconsin isn't in that territory, but it's clear the Badgers have benefited in the same way. Bielema and Andersen continued Alvarez's vision of power football, and it has allowed UW to continue recruiting at the same level despite change; according to the 247Sports Composite, Wisconsin's class ranked sixth in the Big Ten in 2013 (Andersen's first couple of months on the job), fifth in 2014, and fifth in 2015 (after Andersen left).

That Alvarez replaced Andersen with an experienced coach with a Wisconsin identity might be all you need to know.

Paul Chryst was Wisconsin's quarterback in the late-1980s, served as an assistant for two years under Alvarez, and called the offensive shots during the Bielema era. He is well-versed in Wisconsin football, and he has three years of head coaching experience to go along with his 14 years as a coordinator. He's got a solid offensive mind, and he retained excellent young defensive coordinator Dave Aranda. He knows what it takes to win in Madison, and he will probably do just that.

2. The case against Paul Chryst, kind of

Maybe some head coaching jobs are easier than others, but the wrong hire can still derail the train.

In three years at Pitt, Chryst won just 19 games. He inherited a team that ranked 48th in F/+ and in three seasons ranked 48th, 49th, and 43rd. His teams went 5-10 in one-possession games. His offense took a significant step forward in 2014 just in time for his defense to collapse.

Despite some exciting young talent, he was struggling to move Pitt beyond the disorganized mess he got when, yes, he became the program's third coach in three years. Chryst looks like a Wisconsin prototype, but his three years as a head coach didn't inspire tons of confidence.

Of course, if he only maintains Wisconsin's level, the Badgers will remain quite good. And the Pitt program really was in disarray. The Panthers had gone from Dave Wannstedt's pro-style attack to one year of Todd Graham's attempted spread (with a two-week hire of Michael Haywood in between), and it took Chryst a while to right the ship. He won't have that exact problem in Madison.

Plus, Chryst scored a major victory in retaining Aranda. The Wisconsin defense took a step backwards in 2014 after replacing almost its entire front seven, but in 2012, Aranda improved Utah State's defense from 96th to 12th in Def. S&P+, and in 2013, he engineered a No. 14 ranking for his first Wisconsin defense. Wisconsin's defense is unlikely to fall far with him in charge.

Odds are in Chryst's favor. And while there is more on-the-field turnover to account for -- namely, the loss of all-world running back Melvin Gordon, two All-American offensive linemen, and two outstanding inside linebackers -- he should find the personnel to his liking.

No matter who's wearing the jersey or standing on the sideline, Wisconsin, with its three Big Ten title appearances in four years, is the king of the Big Ten West until proved otherwise.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-3 | Adj. Record: 12-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 25
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
31-Aug	vs. LSU	22	24-28	L	52%	1.3	40%
7-Sep	Western Illinois	N/A	37-3	W	78%	17.9	100%
21-Sep	Bowling Green	98	68-17	W	97%	42.8	100%
28-Sep	South Florida	123	27-10	W	60%	6.0	91%
5-Oct	at Northwestern	71	14-20	L	31%	-11.8	28%
12-Oct	Illinois	78	38-28	W	76%	16.6	98%
26-Oct	Maryland	62	52-7	W	98%	46.8	100%
2-Nov	at Rutgers	81	37-0	W	97%	45.5	100%
9-Nov	at Purdue	84	34-16	W	92%	33.4	100%
16-Nov	Nebraska	30	59-24	W	98%	49.7	100%
23-Nov	at Iowa	63	26-24	W	70%	12.1	84%
30-Nov	Minnesota	37	34-24	W	77%	17.4	89%
7-Dec	vs. Ohio State	1	0-59	L	2%	-50.1	0%
2-Jan	vs. Auburn	7	34-31	W	58%	5.0	46%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	35.4	29	22.6	29
Points Per Game	33.4	37	20.8	17

3. Running into a buzzsaw

Look at the percentile chart above. "One of these things ... not like the other ones..."

Until the Big Ten title game, Wisconsin's season had taken shape predictably, given personnel changes and quarterback issues. With incumbent Joel Stave battling a case of the yips, converted safety Tanner McEvoy took the QB reins and was inconsistent. The result: a slow start and a fast finish.

• First 6 games
  Average Percentile Performance: 66% (~top 45 | record: 4-2)
  Average Yards Per Play: Wisconsin 7.0, Opponent 4.8 (plus-2.2)
• Next 6 games
  Average Percentile Performance: 89% (~top 15 | record: 6-0)
  Average Yards Per Play: Wisconsin 7.3, Opponent 3.9 (plus-3.4)

Wisconsin was underwhelming in a loss to LSU and a mediocre win over USF, and the Badgers were a major disappointment in a 20-14 loss to Northwestern. But that comes with the territory when you've got a questionable quarterback and new defensive pieces. The blips went away.

Gordon and the run game were so good that the Badgers averaged more than 7 yards per play with a one-dimensional offense. Meanwhile, the defense went from solid to spectacular.

The Badgers advanced to the Big Ten Championship, where they were slaughtered by the eventual national champion.

Wisconsin was awesome over the last half, but there were still ifs, especially the passing game. Ohio State was bound by no ifs; the Buckeyes needed to make a case for the College Football Playoff, and with the pressure on, they played maybe the best game of the season by anybody. Wisconsin obliged by folding. And then Gary Andersen left for Corvallis.

The combination of the egg-laying and escape left a bitter taste in Wisconsin fans' mouths. But a rebound win against Auburn made things a little smoother.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.97	13	IsoPPP+	126.8	17
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.8%	21	Succ. Rt. +	115.5	21
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.0	71	Def. FP+	103.0	33
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.6	49	Redzone S&P+	105.6	52
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.4		ACTUAL	26	+4.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	22	23	26	17
RUSHING	4	10	28	4
PASSING	118	60	35	75
Standard Downs		11	18	10
Passing Downs		63	71	58

Q1 Rk	93	1st Down Rk	9
Q2 Rk	25	2nd Down Rk	13
Q3 Rk	2	3rd Down Rk	13
Q4 Rk	18

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Joel Stave	6'5, 220	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	110	206	1350	9	10	53.4%	10	4.6%	5.8
Tanner McEvoy	6'6, 222	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8690	65	112	709	5	6	58.0%	2	1.8%	6.1
Bart Houston	6'4, 218	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9175	1	3	6	1	0	33.3%	0	0.0%	2.0
D.J. Gillins	6'3, 201	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8922
Alex Hornibrook	6'4, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8281

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Melvin Gordon	RB					345	2606	29	7.6	9.3	44.6%	7	6
Corey Clement	RB	5'11, 217	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9308	147	949	9	6.5	6.8	42.9%	0	0
Tanner McEvoy	QB	6'6, 222	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8690	63	591	6	9.4	7.0	68.3%	5	1
Dare Ogunbowale	RB	5'11, 188	Jr.	NR	NR	34	193	1	5.7	3.1	52.9%	0	0
Kenzel Doe	WR					16	149	0	9.3	9.2	62.5%	6	2
George Rushing	WR	6'1, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8467	5	33	0	6.6	3.7	60.0%	0	0
Austin Ramesh	RB	6'1, 247	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8613
Taiwan Deal	RB	6'0, 216	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8789
Caleb Kinlaw	RB	5'9, 180	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8593
Jordan Stevenson	RB	5'9, 190	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9160
Bradrick Shaw	RB	6'1, 205	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.8779

4. Plug 'n play

The Badgers must replace the best running back in the country, a guy who rushed for nearly 2,600 yards, caught 19 passes, scored 32 touchdowns, and put together some of the most brilliant performances you'll ever see.

They must also replace the country's best right side of an offensive line, losing guard Kyle Costigan and tackle Rob Havenstein. Both were All-Americans and three-year starters. Left guard and two-year starter Dallas Lewallen is also gone.

What's your reaction? If you're honest, it's probably "Yeah, they'll be fine." It's almost impossible to worry about the Wisconsin run game. It is one of football's quintessential plug-and-play offenses. Gordon was amazing, but Corey Clement will rush for 1,500 yards if healthy. And if Clement's not, redshirt freshman Taiwan Deal will probably be ready.

A new crop of road graders -- sophomore tackle Hayden Biegel, enormous guards Walker Williams, Ray Ball, and Michael Deiter (average size: 6'6, 320) -- will probably step right in without missing more than a beat or two.

No one has a more consistent identity. The Badgers have had 13 thousand-yard rushes in the last 11 seasons, a patently absurd total, and in riding James Conner to more than 1,700 rushing yards at Pitt last year, Chryst proved he knows what to do with a good run game.

Despite the losses, the ceiling for this offense will again be defined by the pass. It was starting to get somewhere in November before falling apart, and we'll see what Chryst and coordinator Joe Rudolph (Wisconsin's tight ends coach from 2008-11 before following Chryst to Pitt) can do to get it going.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Alex Erickson	WR	6'0, 196	Sr.	NR	NR	101	55	772	54.5%	33.7%	67.3%	7.6	84	7.5	93.6
Sam Arneson	TE					43	29	387	67.4%	14.3%	46.5%	9.0	40	9.7	47.0
Kenzel Doe	WR					29	17	197	58.6%	9.7%	58.6%	6.8	-12	6.8	23.9
Melvin Gordon	RB					28	19	153	67.9%	9.3%	71.4%	5.5	-74	5.6	18.6
Troy Fumagalli	TE	6'5, 246	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8044	25	14	187	56.0%	8.3%	40.0%	7.5	13	7.5	22.7
Jordan Fredrick	WR	6'4, 214	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8100	19	13	126	68.4%	6.3%	26.3%	6.6	-29	7.6	15.3
Corey Clement	RB	5'11, 217	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9308	16	14	119	87.5%	5.3%	37.5%	7.4	-42	8.4	14.4
George Rushing	WR	6'1, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8467	10	5	62	50.0%	3.3%	70.0%	6.2	-2	7.0	7.5
Austin Traylor	TE	6'3, 248	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8900	9	4	35	44.4%	3.0%	55.6%	3.9	-17	3.8	4.2
Reggie Love	WR	6'3, 214	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8316	6	2	15	33.3%	2.0%	50.0%	2.5	-13	2.8	1.8
Derek Watt	FB	6'2, 236	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.7900	4	0	0	0.0%	1.3%	75.0%	0.0	-6	0.0	0.0
Austin Ramesh	RB	6'1, 247	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8613	3	3	18	100.0%	1.0%	100.0%	6.0	-16	N/A	2.2
Robert Wheelwright	WR	6'2, 201	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8855	3	1	17	33.3%	1.0%	33.3%	5.7	3	9.8	2.1
Eric Steffes	TE	6'3, 259	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8600	2	0	0	0.0%	0.7%	100.0%	0.0	-3	N/A	0.0
Krenwick Sanders	WR	6'1, 193	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8740	1	1	10	100.0%	0.3%	0.0%	10.0	-1	N/A	1.2
Jazz Peavy	WR	6'0, 187	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8059
Kyle Penniston	TE	6'5, 230	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8893
David Edwards	TE	6'7, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8767

5. Wringing more out of the passing game

The Badgers had to replace their top two wideouts (Jared Abbrederis and Jeff Duckworth) and starting tight end (Jacob Pedersen), and Wisconsin's Passing S&P+ ranking slipped from 42nd to 60th. Sam Arneson became a lovely weapon at tight end, but Alex Erickson and Kenzel Doe (combined: 7.5 yards per target) couldn't replicate Abbrederis and Duckworth.

Needless to say, the quarterback situation didn't help. Tanner McEvoy, by all accounts a phenomenal athlete (as attested by his 9.4 yards per carry, not including sacks), alternated between good and horrific (against LSU and Northwestern: 12-for-34, 74 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs), then ceded the job to Joel Stave in October. Stave's yips cleared up, and after a shaky start, he found his groove.

• First 4 games: 48% completion rate, 13.6 yards per completion, 4.7% INT rate
• Next 4 games: 67% completion rate, 12.9 yards per completion, 1.4% INT rate

And then he lost it against Ohio State and Auburn.

• Last 2 games: 44% completion rate, 9.9 yards per completion, 8.6% INT rate

Every time you think Stave has turned a corner, he regresses, but it appears he's the man heading into his senior season. McEvoy has moved back to safety (and also got work at receiver in the spring), and Stave fended off backups Bart Houston and D.J. Gillins.

So who will Stave be throwing to? Alex Erickson was hit-and-miss in moving from No. 4 wideout to top dog, but he had his moments -- five catches for 121 yards against Maryland, five for 160 against Minnesota. And senior Jordan Fredrick is a decent possession man. But despite the best play-action potential in the country, the big plays were sorely lacking, and unless someone like junior Robert Wheelwright or sophomore George Rushing can generate more of a threat, last year's problems might be this year's problems.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	116.7	3.37	3.8	47.5%	72.7%	19.7%	124.8	1.3%	7.6%
Rank	12	13	17	8	27	72	34	4	69

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Rob Havenstein	RT					42	All-American, 2014 1st All-Big Ten
Kyle Costigan	RG					35	All-American, 2014 1st All-Big Ten
Tyler Marz	LT	6'5, 321	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7500	27
Dallas Lewallen	LG					21
Dan Voltz	C	6'3, 311	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9528	20
Walker Williams	LG	6'7, 320	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8434	0
Ray Ball	LG	6'7, 324	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8600	0
Michael Deiter	RG	6'5, 317	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8329	0
Trent Denlinger	RG					0
Hayden Biegel	RT	6'6, 303	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8292	0
Jaden Gault	OL	6'6, 310	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9423	0
George Panos	C	6'5, 301	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8849
Beau Benzschawel	RT	6'6, 291	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8145
Jacob Maxwell	LT	6'6, 295	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7874
Jon Dietzen	RG	6'5, 330	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8898
Kevin Estes	OL	6'5, 270	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8822
David Moorman	OL	6'5, 275	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8798

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.84	62	IsoPPP+	115.4	30
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	36.1%	16	Succ. Rt. +	113.3	26
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.3	67	Off. FP+	101.0	51
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	70	Redzone S&P+	103.5	49
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.5		ACTUAL	17.0	-2.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	4	25	25	30
RUSHING	23	28	36	20
PASSING	4	23	20	35
Standard Downs		50	54	54
Passing Downs		7	5	10

Q1 Rk	42	1st Down Rk	17
Q2 Rk	4	2nd Down Rk	50
Q3 Rk	13	3rd Down Rk	48
Q4 Rk	93

6. Keeping Aranda was huge

Last year, Wisconsin had to replace 64 percent of its line tackles and 69 percent of its linebacker tackles. There were some blips (relative to the level of competition) early and against Ohio State, but aside from a few breakdowns against Iowa, the Badgers were magnificent over the final seven games of the regular season, and they kept Auburn mostly in check.

Wisconsin's overall ratings fell because of the early struggles -- from 14th in Def. S&P+ in 2013 to 29th in 2014 -- but Aranda figured out what buttons to press.

Aranda, apparently a player favorite, assures a level of continuity. But he'll also provide a constant while the front seven does more rebuilding. Gone are ends Konrad Zagzebski and Warren Herring and two outstanding ILBs in Marcus Trotter and Derek Landisch. There is talent in the pipeline, however, and Aranda should know what to do with it.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	109.5	2.82	2.56	35.6%	62.9%	20.9%	153.3	11.0%	7.6%
Rank	33	48	17	29	38	44	5	2	62

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Arthur Goldberg	DE/NG	6'3, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8407	14	19.0	2.8%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Konrad Zagzebski	DE					13	15.0	2.2%	2.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Chikwe Obasih	DE	6'2, 268	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8869	14	14.5	2.1%	2.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Warren Herring	DE					9	12.5	1.8%	2.0	0.0	0	1	1	0
Alec James	DE	6'3, 259	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8728	14	6.5	1.0%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
James Adeyanju	NG	6'2, 262	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8800	10	6.0	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jake Keefer	DE	6'3, 269	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9000	13	5.0	0.7%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Conor Sheehy	NG	6'5, 279	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8857	14	1.5	0.2%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Garret Dooley	DE	6'2, 238	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8687
Billy Hirschfeld	DE	6'6, 271	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8731
Jeremy Patterson	NG	6'3, 326	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8635
Zander Neuville	DE	6'5, 226	RSFr.	NR	NR
Olive Sagapolu	NG	6'2, 295	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8522
Kraig Howe	DE	6'3, 253	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8472

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Marcus Trotter	ILB					13	73.0	10.7%	12.0	3.5	1	1	0	0
Derek Landisch	ILB					14	65.0	9.5%	15.0	8.0	1	3	0	0
Joe Schobert	OLB	6'2, 240	Sr.	NR	0.7700	14	56.5	8.3%	13.5	3.0	0	7	2	0
Vince Biegel	OLB	6'4, 244	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9360	14	47.0	6.9%	16.5	7.5	0	2	2	0
Leon Jacobs	ILB	6'2, 230	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8066	14	23.0	3.4%	2.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Michael Trotter	ILB					13	11.0	1.6%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Ben Ruechel	ILB					14	7.0	1.0%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Sherard Cadogan	OLB					4	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jesse Hayes	OLB	6'3, 229	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8800	12	3.0	0.4%	1.5	1.5	0	0	1	0
Keelon Brookins	ILB	5'10, 209	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8524	7	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
D'Cota Dixon	ILB	5'10, 206	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8453	3	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Garret Dooley	OLB	6'2, 238	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8687
Jack Cichy	OLB	6'2, 220	So.	NR	NR
T.J. Edwards	ILB	6'1, 229	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7631
Arrington Farrar	OLB	6'2, 202	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8994
Nick Thomas	ILB	6'2, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8194
Ty DeForest	ILB	6'1, 220	Fr.	NR	NR
Kellen Jones (Clemson)	ILB	6'0, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	N/A	13	17		0.5	0	0	0	1	0

7. High expectations for a few sophomores

A 3-4 line isn't usually intended to make many plays; the goal is to occupy blockers and allow linebackers to flow to the ball. But Wisconsin's needed to make a few more plays than it made last year.

Wisconsin linemen combined for 18 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks in 2013, but those numbers fell to 11.5 and four, respectively, last fall. The pass rush was still a strength thanks to the linebackers, but Wisconsin fell from ninth to 28th in Rushing S&P+.

Aranda will do some retooling. Nose guard Arthur Goldberg moves to end, putting a lot of pressure on high-upside (and relatively undersized) sophomore Connor Sheehy, the new presumptive starter in the middle. If Sheehy holds up and former four-star signee Chikwe Obasih experiences a second-year breakthrough (he evidently had a great spring), the line will improve.

And that could mean great things for the linebackers.

Marcus Trotter and Derek Landisch were more disruptive than your normal 3-4 ILBs, combining for 27 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, and six passes defensed. Losing them is tough, but new starter Leon Jacobs saw action last year, and the OLBs should bring the hammer again. Joe Schobert and Vince Biegel combined for 30 (!) TFLs, 10.5 sacks, nine passes defensed, and four forced fumbles.

That's incredible production, and if the OLBs hold steady and the line improves, Wisconsin can afford a step backward at ILB.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Michael Caputo	SS	6'1, 212	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8700	14	85.0	12.4%	6	1	1	6	2	0
Peniel Jean	FS					14	44.5	6.5%	3	1	2	0	0	0
Darius Hillary	CB	5'11, 188	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8500	14	31.0	4.5%	3	0	0	5	0	0
Sojourn Shelton	CB	5'9, 178	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8672	14	28.5	4.2%	1	0	0	6	0	0
Tanner McEvoy (2013)	FS	6'6, 222	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8690	11	20.0	3.1%	1	0	1	4	0	0
Lubern Figaro	FS	6'0, 179	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8306	13	18.0	2.6%	1.5	0	1	0	1	0
Austin Hudson	DB	6'2, 205	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7994	14	16.5	2.4%	1	1	0	0	1	0
Derrick Tindal	CB	5'11, 174	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8215	12	10.0	1.5%	1	1	0	1	0	0
Joe Ferguson	SS	6'1, 210	So.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	14	8.5	1.2%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
Devin Gaulden	CB	5'10, 187	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8000	14	8.0	1.2%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Leo Musso	SS	5'10, 194	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793	12	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
A.J. Jordan	CB	6'0, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8500	14	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Terrance Floyd	CB	5'10, 191	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8400	9	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Serge Trezy	CB	6'1, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8519
Natrell Jamerson	CB	5'11, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8414
Evan Bondoc	FS	6'1, 201	RSFr.	NR	NR
Titus Booker	CB	5'11, 176	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8587

8. An underrated secondary returns almost intact

Wisconsin's secondary benefited from a strong pass rush in 2014, but it also benefited from play-making depth of its own. Three DBs recorded at least three tackles for loss, three defensed at least five passes, and seven saw solid playing time. Of those seven, six return, and that doesn't include 2013 contributor Tanner McEvoy, back from his sojourn at QB.

With McEvoy sliding into the role of departed free safety Peniel Jean, it appears this secondary is stable. And while there are seniors at the top, a fun crop of sophomores will serve as understudies. From a recruiting rankings perspective, Wisconsin hasn't signed the most high-upside defensive backs in the world, but Badger DBs were successful in 2014 and should be again.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Drew Meyer	6'3, 187	Sr.	54	37.4	3	16	18	63.0%
Bart Houston	6'4, 218	Jr.	7	34.7	0	0	1	14.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Andrew Endicott	5'9, 175	Jr.	90	61.5	28	1	31.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Rafael Gaglianone	5'11, 231	So.	59-61	14-15	93.3%	5-7	71.4%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Kenzel Doe	KR			28	22.3	0
Kenzel Doe	PR			24	10.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	86
Field Goal Efficiency	9
Punt Return Efficiency	70
Kick Return Efficiency	102
Punt Efficiency	112
Kickoff Efficiency	49
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	125

9. Find a return man

Kenzel Doe's production as a return man was somewhere between decent and below average; in the Big Ten, that's more like bad and dismal. The Big Ten has the best set of return men in the country, and Wisconsin lost field position ground both because of the lack of a return game and the lack of good punt coverage.

With Doe gone, Wisconsin has to roll the dice again. The Badgers have a pretty good place-kicker in Rafael Gaglianone, but special teams might again be a net loss if the new return man isn't efficient enough.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
5-Sep	vs. Alabama	1
12-Sep	Miami (Ohio)	113
19-Sep	Troy	124
26-Sep	Hawaii	118
3-Oct	Iowa	57
10-Oct	at Nebraska	30
17-Oct	Purdue	74
24-Oct	at Illinois	63
31-Oct	Rutgers	79
7-Nov	at Maryland	56
21-Nov	Northwestern	62
28-Nov	at Minnesota	42

Five-Year F/+ Rk	35.6% (10)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	35 / 36
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-9 / -1.9
2014 TO Luck/Game	-2.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (6, 7)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	10.7 (-0.7)

10. The champion until proven otherwise

It's hard to avoid making assumptions. No matter the coach, no matter the personnel, you know the Badgers are going to run well, and thanks to four top-30 defenses in the last six years, you assume they are going to play steady D. There will be power football, there will be "Jump Around," and there will be wins.

We assume this, but turnover makes this less than completely certain.

Still, Wisconsin is the surest bet in the Big Ten West. Minnesota has risen for three straight years, and Nebraska's got new energy and a nice schedule. But the kings are still the kings until they are dethroned. The Badgers have won three of four against Nebraska and 11 straight against Minnesota. That they have to go to Lincoln and Minneapolis is scary, especially since the passing game isn't guaranteed to improve, but they avoid both Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, and Penn State out of the East and will be favorites in each of their other six conference games.

Paul Chryst isn't a perfect hire, but he seems good enough to keep this ship steered. Wisconsin will have a solid chance of winning the West, and with quite a few high-impact underclassmen, the Badgers set up well for 2016 as well.

Plus, considering his background, Chryst probably isn't going to leave in two years. The pieces are in place for a sustained run, even if there's a non-zero possibility of a 2015 blip.