Michigan State, one of the country's steadiest winners. Imagine saying that a decade ago.

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1. Easing away from the pack

Mark Dantonio has pretty much ruined it for all other coaches taking on rebuilding jobs. Rebuilding is a difficult thing. But while there have been setbacks in Dantonio's seven years, they have been minimal and easy to explain. Dantonio's tenure has been as smooth and forward-moving as you'll ever see.

-- The 2014 Michigan State preview

Sixteen years ago, Nick Saban left East Lansing for Baton Rouge, starting a seven-year period of frustration and the "Sparty, No!" meme. Under Bobby Williams and John L. Smith, the Spartans put a lot of individual talent on the field, dropped hints of excellent play, and went 38-45. From 2002-06, they went 4-14 in games decided by one possession. Nobody snatched disappointment from the jaws of hope as frequently as early-aughts Sparty.

"Sparty, No!" is dead. Seven years of sadness have been swallowed up by eight years of growth. Sure, there have still been disappointments, but from a quality standpoint, the job Dantonio has done has been stunning. He inherited a team that had ranked 75th in the F/+ rankings in 2006 and engineered the following run: 26th, 32nd, 31st, 31st, 14th, 20th, 12th, 11th.

Like most teams, Dantonio's Spartans have gone through ups and downs based on which way the close-game winds have blown; they went 6-12 in one-possession games from 2007-09, then went 8-1 in 2010-11 before settling into a nice 7-6 groove since. But after going 22-17 in his first three years, Dantonio's gone 53-14 since, and that's including a 7-6 campaign in 2012.

In a conference laden with parity -- Monday's Big Ten power rankings are going to feature seven teams bunched together in one tier and five in another -- State is likely to stand alone in second place, a couple of steps behind Ohio State and a few ahead of everybody else. As James Franklin (Penn State) and Jim Harbaugh (Michigan) attempt to turn Big Ten East blue bloods back into contenders, they'll have to clear the Michigan State hurdle before they can even think about catching Urban Meyer. And that's not going to be easy.

There are questions: can the running game remain steady without Jeremy Langford and two starting guards? Who steps up to fill receiver Tony Lippett's shoes after his breakout? Does the pass rush suffer without end Marcus Rush? Does the defensive playmaking drop off without Kurtis Drummond and Trae Waynes?

All told, that's not a bad list, and the potential answers are cause for optimism. The rest of the Big Ten pack isn't going to wait for Michigan State to fall; good hires and investment mean schools are coming after what is currently the second-best program in an improving conference.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-2 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 11
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
29-Aug	Jacksonville State	N/A	45-7	W	96%	39.9	100%
6-Sep	at Oregon	3	27-46	L	45%	-2.9	5%
20-Sep	Eastern Michigan	128	73-14	W	96%	40.6	100%
27-Sep	Wyoming	113	56-14	W	94%	37.2	100%
4-Oct	Nebraska	30	27-22	W	95%	38.2	100%
11-Oct	at Purdue	84	45-31	W	63%	7.5	88%
18-Oct	at Indiana	88	56-17	W	49%	-0.3	58%
25-Oct	Michigan	54	35-11	W	96%	41.8	100%
8-Nov	Ohio State	1	37-49	L	48%	-1.4	6%
15-Nov	at Maryland	62	37-15	W	85%	23.9	98%
22-Nov	Rutgers	81	45-3	W	99%	52.0	100%
29-Nov	at Penn State	45	34-10	W	87%	25.9	98%
1-Jan	vs. Baylor	10	42-41	W	71%	13.2	40%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	40.1	10	21.4	22
Points Per Game	43.0	7	21.5	21

2. Blip and recovery

Good Michigan State was great Michigan State. In six of the Spartans' 12 wins, they performed at the 94th percentile (like a top-eight team) or better. Nobody's spectacular in every game, and this is as steady a performance as most could have asked for.

But there were blips, and three happened in the middle of the year.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 5 games): 85% (~top 20 | record: 4-1)
  Yards Per Play: Michigan State 6.5, Opponent 4.8 (plus-1.7)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 4): 64% (~top 50 | record: 3-1)
  Yards Per Play: Michigan State 7.0, Opponent 5.6 (plus-1.4)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 4): 86% (~top 20 | record: 4-0)
  Yards Per Play: Michigan State 6.1, Opponent 5.0 (plus-1.1)

Michigan State's defense under Dantonio and former coordinator Pat Narduzzi (now the head coach at Pitt) has long been about being aggressive. The Spartans would risk big plays to force turnovers and three-and-outs, and as the talent level grew, the D went from good to incredible. State ranked between 20th and 37th in Def. S&P+ each year from 2008-10, then surged to eighth in 2011 and second in 2012 and 2013.

Regression was expected in 2014, when the Spartans had to replace all-world cornerback Darqueze Dennard and half of their front seven, and they sank to 22nd last fall. They still suffocated lesser offenses, but the good ones were able to break the D a few too many times. Oregon, Ohio State, and Baylor, three top-10 offenses, combined to average 7.9 yards per play and 45.3 points against the Spartans. Everybody else averaged only 4.1 and 14.4, respectively.

Still, teams like Indiana and Purdue were also able to find more success than expected in the middle of the year. The Spartans rebounded after the Ohio State game, and even in the Baylor game, in which they allowed 41 points and 583 yards, they made enough stops down the stretch to pull off a dramatic comeback win.

By the way, did you notice that State's defense regressed, and the Spartans still improved overall in F/+? I don't think we talked enough about how awesome Michigan State's offense was.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.98	11	IsoPPP+	138.7	6
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	48.2%	14	Succ. Rt. +	122.2	11
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.8	45	Def. FP+	106.0	13
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.8	29	Redzone S&P+	118.6	23
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.6		ACTUAL	15	-1.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	11	8	13	6
RUSHING	21	17	14	21
PASSING	36	6	14	6
Standard Downs		13	13	15
Passing Downs		5	17	4

Q1 Rk	7	1st Down Rk	22
Q2 Rk	15	2nd Down Rk	19
Q3 Rk	72	3rd Down Rk	32
Q4 Rk	5

3. Wanted: new big-play guys

For years, the job of the Michigan State offense was to get out of the way. The Spartans won 11 games in 2011 with an offense that ranked 41st in Off. S&P+; in 2013, they won 13 with an O that ranked 73rd. But that No. 73 ranking was deceiving; State was abysmal early but clicked when Connor Cook took over at quarterback.

State averaged at least 6 yards per play in five of its final nine games of 2013, then in 10 of 13 last fall, ranking 10th in Off. S&P+. Cook completed the shift from scattershot to one of the country's best QBs, and he found one hell of a battery mate in Tony Lippett, who went from an explosive No. 3 option to an even more explosive No. 1.

The strength of Michigan State's offense was its explosiveness. Lippett and Keith Mumphery combined to average 18.6 yards per catch, and primary running backs Jeremy Langford and Nick Hill combined to show jets in the open field, each averaging at least 5.5 yards per carry. Despite a slow tempo, the Spartans ranked 18th in the country with 75 gains of 20-plus yards.

That the Spartans return three of last year's four most frequent targets and some well-regarded (young) running backs is exciting. Cook will have familiar names, even if the running back is new. But Lippett, Mumphery, Langford, and Hill are all gone. State might have to raise its efficiency to offset potential regression.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Connor Cook	6'4, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8367	212	365	3214	24	8	58.1%	11	2.9%	8.4
Damion Terry	6'3, 230	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9177	12	19	88	0	0	63.2%	0	0.0%	4.6
Tyler O'Connor	6'3, 222	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8820	12	16	151	2	1	75.0%	0	0.0%	9.4
Brian Lewerke	6'3, 195	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8779

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Jeremy Langford	RB					276	1522	22	5.5	5.4	39.5%	3	2
Nick Hill	RB					107	622	9	5.8	5.5	43.0%	1	1
Delton Williams	RB	6'1, 228	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8682	54	316	5	5.9	8.3	35.2%	0	0
Connor Cook	QB	6'4, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8367	40	133	2	3.3	2.3	37.5%	3	1
R.J. Shelton	WR	5'11, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8609	21	148	2	7.0	4.0	66.7%	1	0
Gerald Holmes	RB	6'0, 218	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8568	15	44	0	2.9	1.2	40.0%	0	0
Macgarrett Kings Jr.	WR	5'10, 186	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8676	12	71	0	5.9	8.3	33.3%	2	1
Damion Terry	QB	6'3, 230	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9177	12	62	0	5.2	3.2	50.0%	1	0
Aaron Burbridge	WR	6'1, 208	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9557	8	39	0	4.9	6.8	25.0%	0	0
Tyler O'Connor	QB	6'3, 222	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8820	6	22	2	3.7	4.5	16.7%	0	0
Madre London	RB	6'1, 220	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8731
T.J. Harrell	RB	6'1, 210	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8680
Gerald Owens	RB	6'2, 260	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8825
LJ Scott	RB	6'1, 215	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9710

4. Who gets the carries?

Despite the loss of Lippett and Mumphery, it's not hard to figure out whom Cook will turn to.

Macgarrett Kings Jr. and Aaron Burbridge each caught at least 20 passes in both 2013 and 2014, and tight end Josiah Price has had plenty of reps. And between veterans like Andre Sims Jr., DeAnthony Arnett, and AJ Troup and youngsters like Trey Kilgore, the odds are good that at least one more weapon emerges.

Still, State is a run-first team on standard downs, and we don't know who will be running. That's a little bit off-putting.

Delton Williams showed serious jets in limited opportunities, but he also showed off a gun in public in March, got himself charged with brandishing a weapon, and got suspended indefinitely. I assume he is eventually reinstated (to the extent that it matters, he did have a permit), but until otherwise noted, the job looks like it might go to either redshirt freshman Madre London or sophomore Gerald Holmes. [Update: Williams was reinstated and is back at practice.] (Both are "smaller" backs by State standards -- they're about 220 pounds each.). But even if Williams is eventually the guy, the running position is far less seasoned.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Tony Lippett	WR-X					105	65	1198	61.9%	27.0%	50.5%	11.4	407	11.6	200.3
Aaron Burbridge	WR-X	6'1, 208	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9557	53	29	358	54.7%	13.6%	47.2%	6.8	-4	7.1	59.8
Josiah Price	TE	6'4, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8725	47	26	382	55.3%	12.1%	66.0%	8.1	58	8.4	63.9
Macgarrett Kings Jr.	WR-F	5'10, 186	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8676	44	29	400	65.9%	11.3%	27.3%	9.1	51	9.7	66.9
Keith Mumphery	WR-Z					42	26	495	61.9%	10.8%	57.1%	11.8	178	11.8	82.8
R.J. Shelton	WR-F	5'11, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8609	21	16	173	76.2%	5.4%	66.7%	8.2	-15	8.4	28.9
Jeremy Langford	RB					20	11	58	55.0%	5.1%	50.0%	2.9	-79	3.1	9.7
Jamal Lyles	TE	6'3, 260	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8927	12	5	74	41.7%	3.1%	16.7%	6.2	7	8.3	12.4
AJ Troup	WR-X	6'2, 218	Sr.	2 stars (5.1)	NR	9	7	113	77.8%	2.3%	55.6%	12.6	31	12.5	18.9
Nick Hill	RB					7	4	48	57.1%	1.8%	28.6%	6.9	-1	6.9	8.0
Monty Madaris	WR-Z	6'1, 198	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9100	6	5	56	83.3%	1.5%	66.7%	9.3	-2	8.8	9.4
Andre Sims Jr.	WR-F	5'9, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8465	4	3	26	75.0%	1.0%	50.0%	6.5	-9	7.1	4.3
Trevon Pendleton	FB	6'0, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR	4	1	2	25.0%	1.0%	75.0%	0.5	-14	0.4	0.3
DeAnthony Arnett	WR-Z	5'11, 182	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9761	3	2	11	66.7%	0.8%	33.3%	3.7	-13	4.2	1.8
Trey Kilgore	WR-Z	6'1, 187	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8453
Dylan Chmura	TE	6'4, 245	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.7941
Matt Sokol	TE	6'5, 244	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8600
Felton Davis III	WR	6'3, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8717
Darrell Stewart Jr.	WR	6'2, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8585

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	112	3.26	3.27	40.9%	72.1%	16.5%	182.5	2.6%	4.3%
Rank	28	29	64	44	30	28	7	17	16

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Jack Allen	C	6'2, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.861	35	All-American, 2014 1st All-Big Ten
Travis Jackson	LG					29	2014 2nd All-Big Ten
Jack Conklin	LT	6'6, 317	Jr.	NR	NR	26	2014 2nd All-Big Ten
Donavon Clark	RG	6'4, 317	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8782	19
Connor Kruse	RG					8
Kodi Kieler	RT	6'6, 310	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8382	7
Brian Allen	LG	6'2, 306	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8915	1
Brandon Clemons	RG	6'3, 305	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8747	0
Benny McGowan	LG	6'3, 316	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8723	0
Miguel Machado	RT	6'6, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8271	0
Dennis Finley	LT	6'6, 305	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8913	0
Devyn Salmon	C	6'1, 313	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8225	0
Chase Gianacakos	RG	6'6, 300	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8432
Kyonta Stallworth	OL	6'4, 270	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9199
Noah Listermann	OL	6'7, 285	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8751
Tyler Higby	OL	6'5, 285	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8631

5. "The biggest question mark probably comes up front"

Big Ten offensive line coaches earned their pay checks. Ohio State replaced just about everybody and dominated on the ground anyway. Nebraska replaced almost everybody and improved.

Michigan State lost three multi-year starters, and I felt it would be a concern heading into 2014.

The biggest question mark for the offense probably comes up front, where three two- or three-year starters are gone. The line wasn't great last fall, but it was good at two things: short-yardage run conversion and passing-downs blitz pickup. If it can maintain competence, the offense will be fine. Not great, but fine.

The offense was more than fine. With help from a late-blooming Langford, the Spartans improved their line stats dramatically, from 77th in Adj. Line Yards and 69th in stuff rate to 28th in both. And despite plenty of downfield passing, State ranked seventh in Adj. Line Yards as well. Cook's rollout ability helped, but the State line produced an All-American and two more all-conference performers.

Two of the three postseason honorees are back. So is line coach Mark Staten.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.02	123	IsoPPP+	110.2	41
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	33.1%	4	Succ. Rt. +	138.2	3
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	34.4	6	Off. FP+	107.0	13
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.2	47	Redzone S&P+	108.6	37
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.4		ACTUAL	34.0	+8.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	8	12	3	41
RUSHING	1	13	1	58
PASSING	61	16	9	27
Standard Downs		32	6	80
Passing Downs		5	7	6

Q1 Rk	14	1st Down Rk	18
Q2 Rk	32	2nd Down Rk	36
Q3 Rk	17	3rd Down Rk	55
Q4 Rk	55

6. Staying in-house

Dantonio spent five years under Jim Tressel at Youngstown State and three more as Ohio State's defensive coordinator. He was at varying levels a defensive assistant for 20 years before beginning his head coaching career, and he's probably not going to lose his mind and forget his principles now that he has lost his coordinator, no matter how good Narduzzi was.

Still, Narduzzi was Dantonio's coordinator for each of his 11 seasons at Cincinnati and Michigan State. This is going to be a change.

Dantonio aimed for the smallest change possible, promoting linebackers coach Mike Tressel (who's been with Dantonio for 11 years, too) and DBs coach Harlon Barnett (ditto) to co-coordinators. Continuity has been Dantonio's friend, and in Narduzzi's absence, he still has it.

Thanks to that, it's hard to imagine the overall style changing. The Spartans have carved out a niche as the least bend-don't-break unit in the country, aiming for efficiency above everything else and showing a willingness to get burned a few times in the process. As efficiency is the most important thing in college football, this makes sense, even if the approach backfired against really good offenses in 2014.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	139.6	2.38	2.23	28.4%	76.5%	23.1%	132.6	8.4%	9.4%
Rank	3	8	6	1	115	18	18	5	28

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Shilique Calhoun	DE	6'5, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8389	13	33.5	5.7%	12.5	8.0	0	0	1	1
Marcus Rush	DE					13	29.5	5.0%	10.5	7.5	0	3	2	0
Joel Heath	DT	6'6, 296	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8720	13	20.0	3.4%	5.0	2.5	0	0	0	0
Lawrence Thomas	DE	6'4, 300	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9733	13	19.5	3.3%	4.5	3.0	0	1	0	0
Malik McDowell	NT	6'6, 285	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9843	13	12.5	2.1%	4.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Demetrius Cooper	DE	6'5, 245	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8603	13	7.5	1.3%	2.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Montez Sweat	DE	6'6, 239	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8222	2	3.0	0.5%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Damon Knox	NT	6'5, 280	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8400	8	1.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Evan Jones	DE	6'5, 252	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8530
Craig Evans	DT	6'2, 328	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9116
Enoch Smith Jr.	NT	6'2, 282	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8777
Robert Bowers	DE	6'4, 235	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8519
David Beedle	DT	6'5, 315	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8438
Raequan Williams	DT	6'5, 270	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9146
Cassius Peat	DE	6'3, 235	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8795
Mufi Hunt	DE	6'6, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8560

7. #Elite up front

The depth Dantonio and his staff have built is remarkable. The Spartans' D is overflowing with former star prospects and excellent three-star athletes who slapped on 20 or 40 pounds since moving to East Lansing. [Update: Knox is out an undisclosed amount of time with injury.]

While Ohio State's Joey Bosa is the best lineman in the conference, Michigan State has the best line. Losing Marcus Rush is a little bit scary considering his pass-rushing prowess, but the Spartans still return Shilique Calhoun and ace blitzer Ed Davis, and the line is teeming with potential Rush replacements, from big senior Lawrence Thomas to sophomore Demetrius Cooper.

Assuming the pass rush doesn't regress much, the run defense will again shine. State ranked first in Rushing Success Rate+ and first in opportunity rate in 2014, and every tackle on the roster (including blue-chip sophomore Malik McDowell) and almost every linebacker return. Rush was excellent, and middle linebacker Taiwan Jones was a stalwart, but until State doesn't replace strong players with more strong players, the Spartans get the benefit of the doubt, especially considering how well they've recruited here.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Taiwan Jones	MIKE					13	45.5	7.8%	12.5	4.0	1	1	0	0
Ed Davis	SAM	6'3, 233	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8600	13	44.5	7.6%	12.0	7.0	0	2	1	0
Darien Harris	STAR	6'0, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8581	13	37.0	6.3%	3.5	0.5	1	1	2	0
Riley Bullough	MIKE	6'2, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8700	13	22.0	3.7%	4.0	3.5	2	0	0	0
Mylan Hicks	STAR					9	15.5	2.6%	1.5	1.0	0	4	0	0
Chris Frey	SAM	6'2, 226	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8597	13	13.5	2.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jon Reschke	MIKE	6'2, 230	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9194	8	9.5	1.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	2	0
Jalyn Powell	STAR	5'11, 195	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8622	9	4.0	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Shane Jones	MIKE	6'1, 228	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9030	8	3.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
T.J. Harrell	STAR	6'1, 210	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8680
Byron Bullough	MIKE	6'1, 230	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8763
Drake Martinez	LB	6'2, 215	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8617
Tyriq Thompson	LB	6'1, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8865
Andrew Dowell	LB	6'1, 210	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8894

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kurtis Drummond	FS					13	63.0	10.7%	5	0	4	11	0	0
RJ Williamson	FS	6'0, 214	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8715	13	46.5	7.9%	0.5	0	3	5	0	0
Trae Waynes	CB					13	40.0	6.8%	2	1	3	8	0	0
Montae Nicholson	SS	6'2, 216	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9174	13	24.5	4.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darian Hicks	CB	5'10, 178	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8628	13	23.5	4.0%	1	0	2	3	0	0
Demetrious Cox	CB/FS	6'1, 200	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9225	13	22.5	3.8%	2	1	0	2	1	0
Arjen Colquhoun	CB	6'1, 197	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8359	11	9.5	1.6%	0	0	1	2	0	0
Mark Meyers	FS	6'0, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8279	13	6.5	1.1%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Jermaine Edmondson	CB	6'0, 181	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8500	11	6.0	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tony Lippett	CB					13	4.0	0.7%	0	0	0	4	0	0
Jalen Watts-Jackson	FS	5'11, 200	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8241
Vayante Copeland	CB	6'0, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8885
Matt Morrissey	SS	6'2, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8432
David Dowell	S	6'1, 180	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8933
Josh Butler	CB	5'11, 175	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8912
Tyson Smith	CB	6'0, 177	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8805
Kaleel Gaines	CB	6'0, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8550
Khari Willis	S	5'11, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8522

8. Got cornerbacks?

As good as your front seven is, your cornerbacks better be phenomenal if you're going to play the Michigan State way. Losing 2014 first-rounder Darqueze Dennard could have hurt, but State slid 2015 first-rounder Trae Waynes into the role; easy peasy. But now Waynes is gone, too.

In R.J. Williamson and Montae Nicholson, State seems to be set at safety. Williamson is a playmaker, and while Nicholson wasn't very disruptive, he held his own as a freshman. If they're set, then the spring move of Demetrious Cox to corner could be permanent, and all eyes will shift to the other corner position.

Darian Hicks was mostly strong but struggled to move past bad plays and ended up losing his spot opposite Waynes, first to Cox, then, strangely enough, to Tony Lippett (the receiver who's turning heads in the NFL as a DB). If Hicks is more stable, then State is ready to dominate in the secondary again. But if not, or if Cox cannot play as steady at CB as he did at safety, then the Spartans could get burned a few too many times.

It's hard to worry about this defense, but cornerback is a potential red flag.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Mike Sadler			52	41.2	5	15	15	57.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Kevin Cronin	6'1, 220	Jr.	99	63.4	46	2	46.5%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Michael Geiger	5'8, 188	Jr.	72-72	11-14	78.6%	3-8	37.5%
Kevin Cronin	6'1, 220	Jr.	1-1	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
R.J. Shelton	KR	5'11, 200	Jr.	31	25.6	1
Nick Hill	KR			2	15.0	0
Macgarrett Kings Jr.	PR	5'10, 186	Sr.	20	6.1	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	18
Field Goal Efficiency	96
Punt Return Efficiency	72
Kick Return Efficiency	15
Punt Efficiency	21
Kickoff Efficiency	20
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	40

9. Return-proof coverage

The Big Ten was a returns-heavy conference. Nearly every team had a great return man, and consequently, most teams had bad coverage numbers. That didn't apply to Michigan State. Spartan punt returns were pretty shaky, but R.J. Shelton proved strong on kick returns, and, most importantly, MSU coverage units were among the best in the country.

Losing punter Mike Sadler is a little scary, but State boasts a solid kickoffs guy in Kevin Cronin and a good-inside-40 place-kicker, and returns and coverage shouldn't change much (as long as the new punter isn't a line-drive specialist).

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
4-Sep	at Western Michigan	65
12-Sep	Oregon	4
19-Sep	Air Force	76
26-Sep	Central Michigan	91
3-Oct	Purdue	74
10-Oct	at Rutgers	79
17-Oct	at Michigan	35
24-Oct	Indiana	81
7-Nov	at Nebraska	30
14-Nov	Maryland	56
21-Nov	at Ohio State	2
28-Nov	Penn State	37

Five-Year F/+ Rk	32.7% (15)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	22 / 24
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	19 / 8.8
2014 TO Luck/Game	+3.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (7, 7)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	9.9 (1.1)

10. A legacy year

It's a strange year for Michigan State. The Spartans are clearly the second-most proven team in the conference and should have an excellent shot at double-digit wins again. But with defending national champion Ohio State returning a monstrous load of talent and playing host to Sparty in late-November, the odds of any serious conference title run are minimal.

So we'll call this a legacy season, likely one without any newfound achievements but one that further burnishes the résumé. Win another 10-plus games, go to another big bowl, and hope Ohio State loses enough talent after the season that you can strike again (albeit without Connor Cook).

Of course, the Spartans better figure out answers at running back and cornerback. The conference schedule is tricky, with not only Ohio State on the road, but also Nebraska and Michigan (i.e., the next two highest-ranked conference opponents). Getting Oregon early (and at home), while the Ducks are still breaking in a new QB is nice, but even a top-15 squad could slip to 9-3 if the breaks don't go right.

Still ... I just mentioned 9-3 as a potentially disappointing result for Michigan State. That says everything you need to know about where Dantonio has taken this program. The Spartans are going to be awesome again, even if they slip up here or there.