Oregon State made a great hire, but someone still has to lose Pac-12 games

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1. Somebody has to lose

On paper, it was a steal. Oregon State lost a guy who had won 29 games in five years and replaced him with a guy who's won 30 in three. When Mike Riley surprised many by both being offered and accepting the Nebraska job in last year's coaching carousel, the Beavers yanked Gary Andersen out from Wisconsin's grasp.

Andersen has crafted an impeccable résumé for a coach based in the West.

After a slow rise -- Ricks College, Idaho State, Northern Arizona, Park City (Utah) High School -- the former Utah lineman got a break at his alma mater, landing on Ron McBride's staff in the late-1990s and, after a year as Southern Utah's head coach, serving as Urban Meyer's Utah defensive line coach in 2004. When Meyer left and Kyle Whittingham was promoted to head coach, Andersen was his defensive coordinator for four years. In 2007-08, Utah ranked 10th and 25th in Def. S&P+, and Utah State hired him to attempt a salvage job in Logan.

He did more than salvage; he built a sturdy program.

The Aggies had been to one bowl in 15 years when he arrived. This program had bottomed out, and it took him a couple of years to get the foundation laid down. But in his third season (2011), USU rode an exciting run game to a 7-6 record and Potato Bowl appearance. And in 2012, the defense came around; USU ranked 13th in overall F/+ and won 11 games for the first time in its FBS history. He left for Wisconsin, but his foundation was sound enough that, despite injuries, USU has won 20 games over the last two years without him.

At Wisconsin, Andersen won 19 games and made a Big Ten title appearance. His Badgers dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness at quarterback and in 2014 had to replace almost their entire starting front seven, but the wins continued. The Andersen formula is simple: smart defense + good running game = scoreboard.

That Oregon State, with its two winning seasons in five years and three total Rose Bowl appearances (none in 50 years), was able to pluck away the coach of the Big Ten West champions was an impressive statement. The Beavers are pouring money into upgrading their lot in life, and this was an excellent first step. And the move looked even better when Andersen put together his staff.

Offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin has put together one of the more underrated runs: he was in charge of a Michigan State offense that ranked 10th in Off. S&P+ in 2005, he had Utah State ranked 30th by his third year, and he had Colorado State's offense up to 36th by his third year of working for Jim McElwain. He has proved adaptable and successful.

On defense, Andersen one-upped himself, landing up-and-coming coordinator Kalani Sitake, who had spent the last six seasons as Whittingham's D.C. at Utah. Utah only once ranked outside of the Def. S&P+ top 30.

I like virtually everything about this. But that statement also goes for most of the Pac-12.

No conference has done a better job of upgrading its coaching roster. Oregon (Chip Kelly, then Mark Helfrich), Stanford (Jim Harbaugh, then David Shaw), Arizona (Rich Rodriguez), Arizona State (Todd Graham), Washington (Chris Petersen), Washington State (Mike Leach), UCLA (Jim Mora), California (Sonny Dykes), and Colorado (Mike MacIntyre) have all made hires that were between sensible and awesome. Steve Sarkisian at USC was the least impressive of recent years, but he has his strengths and lots of margin for error.

Coaching is a zero-sum affair. Somebody has to lose every game. As good as Andersen could be in Corvallis, he also has to be better than a lot of the names in that last paragraph. And he's damn near starting from scratch at key positions. (First big decision on the docket: choosing which of a handful of freshman quarterbacks is going to run Baldwin's offense.)

Getting to or near the top of the Pac-12 North will require his best effort yet. It will also take time.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 74
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Portland State	N/A	29-14	W	63%	8.0	98%
6-Sep	at Hawaii	111	38-30	W	79%	18.6	99%
20-Sep	San Diego State	76	28-7	W	93%	34.8	99%
27-Sep	at USC	16	10-35	L	13%	-26.4	0%
4-Oct	at Colorado	83	36-31	W	36%	-8.3	38%
16-Oct	Utah	29	23-29	L	46%	-2.3	24%
25-Oct	at Stanford	18	14-38	L	23%	-17.4	0%
1-Nov	California	65	31-45	L	49%	-0.7	46%
8-Nov	Washington State	77	32-39	L	43%	-4.0	44%
15-Nov	Arizona State	27	35-27	W	86%	25.2	88%
22-Nov	at Washington	58	13-37	L	21%	-19.1	2%
29-Nov	Oregon	3	19-47	L	13%	-26.3	0%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	28.6	65	29.7	73
Points Per Game	25.7	89	31.6	98

2. A misleading start

A few weeks in, it looked like this was going to be another one of Mike Riley's random success stories. After a string early in Riley's second stint in Corvallis -- the Beavers went to six bowls in seven years and won 28 games from 2006-08 -- the later years were defined by ups and downs. OSU's win total changed by at least two games each year from 2009-14, hitting rock bottom in 2011 (3-9) then surging (9-4).

The Beavers didn't look amazing in wins over Portland State and Hawaii, but they were good enough; then, against San Diego State, they were great.

And then the rest of the season happened.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 3 games): 78% (~top 30 | record: 3-0)
• Average Percentile Performance (first 3 games): 37% (~top 80 | record: 2-7)

The offense fell into a funk early in Pac-12 play, gaining 181 yards against USC and 221 against Stanford. And as the Beavers figured out how to move the ball, the defense fell apart, allowing at least 5.8 yards per play in four of the last five games and at least 8.2 against both Washington and Oregon.

The ups and downs resulted in what seemed like pretty standard full-season ratings: Oregon State ranked 65th in Off. S&P+ and 73rd in Def. S&P+. But both units looked far better and far worse than that for much of the season.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.84	74	IsoPPP+	102.9	61
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.0%	60	Succ. Rt. +	102.0	62
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.2	57	Def. FP+	103.0	33
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.0	90	Redzone S&P+	93.1	84
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.1		ACTUAL	14	-4.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	75	59	63	61
RUSHING	113	30	44	25
PASSING	32	83	77	85
Standard Downs		59	48	64
Passing Downs		70	105	48

Q1 Rk	41	1st Down Rk	60
Q2 Rk	88	2nd Down Rk	65
Q3 Rk	57	3rd Down Rk	57
Q4 Rk	90

3. A Dave Baldwin offense

In 2011, Baldwin's Utah State ran 75 percent of the time on standard downs and 46 percent on passing downs. With freshman Chuckie Keeton running the show, Robert Turbin, Michael Smith, and Kerwynn Williams combined to rush 34 times per game, with a decent amount of efficiency passing. And it worked. Despite a defense that hadn't come around, USU went 7-6 and scored 38 points on Auburn and 34 against Colorado State.

In 2014, Baldwin's Colorado State ran 53 percent of the time on standard downs and 29 percent on passing downs. Three running backs combined to average 25 carries per game, but quarterback Garrett Grayson threw 34 times per game, frequently downfield to All-American Rashard Higgins. CSU passed to set up the run and burned opponents deep.

There are three constants to a Baldwin offense: commitment to physicality, plodding pace, and acceptance of the talent on hand.

So what does that mean for Oregon State in 2015? A lot of rushing, probably. For one thing, the Beavers return a strong running back in Barrs-Woods, who broke through after early-career ups and downs. Barrs-Woods battled injury again, but in his last four games, he rushed 53 times for 378 yards (7.1); between Barrs-Woods, junior Chris Brown, and big JUCO transfer Tim Cook, the Beavers might have enough options to produce a solid, run-heavy attack.

That's good because, unless there's another Keeton-esque surprise, quarterback will be limited.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Sean Mannion					282	453	3164	15	8	62.3%	36	7.4%	5.9
Luke Del Rio					8	18	141	0	0	44.4%	0	0.0%	7.8
Nick Mitchell	6'2, 195	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463
Marcus McMaryion	6'1, 199	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8406
Seth Collins	6'3, 186	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8113

4. Got a quarterback?

Sean Mannion finally graduated after a productive four years behind center. And I do mean productive: 1,187 completions, 13,600 yards, 83 touchdowns. He cut his interception rate in half from his freshman year to his senior year, and he managed decent moments in 2014 despite turnover in the receiving corps.

Mannion's assumed replacement, Luke Del Rio, transferred. That leaves Baldwin to choose between two redshirt freshmen (Nick Mitchell and Marcus McMaryion) and an unheralded true freshman (Seth Collins). Baldwin and Andersen have proclaimed the desire for a mobile element, and there's a chance this offense resembles what they had during Keeton's freshman season.

Keeton was a steal, but they eased him into the role regardless. All they can hope is that the run is good enough to prevent second- and third-and-long situations.

When the freshman QB of choice does have to pass, he might have options. Victor Bolden is an efficiency quarterback's dream; he caught two-thirds of Mannion's passes last year, and if the goal is to have the QB throwing mostly on second-and-3 or third-and-4, Bolden could see a lot of action. Barrs-Woods could also be a frequent target.

If Baldwin gets an itch to send people deep, a couple of sophomores could help to feed those urges. Jordan Villamin is a terrifying combination: 235 pounds and 16.5 yards per catch. He will probably be used closer to the line, but he and Hunter Jarmon could provide big-play threats when necessary.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Terron Ward	RB					133	696	10	5.2	5.6	36.8%	0	0
Storm Barrs-Woods	RB	6'0, 203	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8448	121	766	5	6.3	6.5	42.1%	1	1
Chris Brown	RB	5'10, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8781	22	91	2	4.1	4.0	36.4%	0	0
Victor Bolden	WR	5'9, 172	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8351	19	118	0	6.2	3.3	63.2%	1	1
Damien Haskins	RB	5'9, 224	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8525	13	49	1	3.8	6.1	15.4%	0	0
Sean Mannion	QB					12	-8	1	-0.7	3.1	41.7%	8	2
Tim Cook	RB	6'1, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8494
Deltron Sands	RB	5'9, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8398

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Victor Bolden	WR	5'9, 172	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8351	107	72	798	67.3%	23.2%	69.2%	7.5	-65	7.6	94.0
Jordan Villamin	WR	6'4, 235	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8529	63	35	578	55.6%	13.6%	63.5%	9.2	142	9.4	68.0
Connor Hamlett	TE					49	32	342	65.3%	10.6%	49.0%	7.0	-44	6.8	40.3
Terron Ward	RB					46	29	229	63.0%	10.0%	50.0%	5.0	-123	5.2	27.0
Caleb Smith	TE	6'6, 263	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8546	38	20	202	52.6%	8.2%	63.2%	5.3	-50	5.1	23.8
Richard Mullaney	WR					36	18	216	50.0%	7.8%	63.9%	6.0	-13	6.0	25.4
Hunter Jarmon	WR	5'11, 198	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8511	35	20	334	57.1%	7.6%	40.0%	9.5	87	8.2	39.3
Storm Barrs-Woods	RB	6'0, 203	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8448	34	26	179	76.5%	7.4%	52.9%	5.3	-126	5.4	21.1
Kellen Clute (2013)	TE	6'5, 256	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115	27	19	159	70.4%	4.5%	68.0%	5.9	-61	4.9	21.0
Ricky Ortiz	TE	6'0, 238	Jr.	NR	NR	15	12	90	80.0%	3.2%	86.7%	6.0	-50	6.7	10.6
Rahmel Dockery	WR	5'10, 179	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8211	9	7	184	77.8%	1.9%	55.6%	20.4	102	20.9	21.7
Tyler Anderson	FB					9	7	37	77.8%	1.9%	66.7%	4.1	-45	4.3	4.4
Chris Brown	RB	5'10, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8781	9	5	37	55.6%	1.9%	77.8%	4.1	-25	4.0	4.4
Damien Haskins	RB	5'9, 224	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8525	5	3	26	60.0%	1.1%	80.0%	5.2	-11	3.7	3.1
Malik Gilmore	WR	6'3, 217	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8789	2	1	15	50.0%	0.4%	0.0%	7.5	2	N/A	1.8
Xavier Hawkins	WR	5'7, 176	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8275
Brent VanderVeen	TE	6'5, 217	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8547
Ryan Nall	RB/TE	6'2, 252	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8033
Datrin Guyton	WR	6'5, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8666
Paul Lucas	WR	5'10, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8722
Noah Togiai	TE	6'4, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8556
Tuli Wily-Matagi	TE	6'3, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8457

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.2	3.07	2.5	39.5%	66.7%	18.8%	92.7	6.4%	8.1%
Rank	71	45	115	61	66	60	81	96	76

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Isaac Seumalo (2013)	C	6'5, 310	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9872	23	2013 2nd All-Pac-12
Sean Harlow	LT	6'4, 298	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8640	21
Josh Mitchell	C	6'3, 306	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8114	15
Roman Sapolu	LG					11
Gavin Andrews	RG	6'6, 343	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8466	10
Grant Bays	C					10
Dustin Stanton	RT	6'5, 289	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8394	6
Fred Lauina	LG	6'4, 315	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	5
Garrett Weinreich	RT					1
Nolan Hansen	LG					0
Bobby Keenan	LT	6'6, 282	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7785	0
Will Hopkins	OL	6'7, 267	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8132	0
Kammy Delp	RG	6'3, 340	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8590
Drew Clarkson	OL	6'3, 286	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8404
Yanni Demogerontas	OL	6'3, 288	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7900
Sosaia Tauaho	OL	6'4, 330	Jr.	NR	NR
Mike Fifita	OL	6'5, 280	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8467
Blake Brandel	OT	6'7, 275	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8447

5. The line never had a chance

The line's run-blocking actually improved, from 83rd in Adj. Line Yards in 2013 to 71st. That's still mediocre, obviously, but any improvement was impressive considering the turnover.

Oregon State had to replace three who had combined for 111 career starts, then lost all-conference center Isaac Seumalo before the season. Oregon State ended up starting five different combinations; Gavin Andrews started at three positions, and two others started at two or more. The sack rates increased, but the run-blocking was steady, and that was a minor miracle.

Now Seumalo returns, as do five players who have combined for 57 starts. Andersen brought line coach T.J. Woods from Utah State to Wisconsin to Oregon State, and he should be able to do good things. And that's huge; if Oregon State can run, the Beavers are infinitely more likely to survive life with a freshman quarterback.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.90	92	IsoPPP+	96.1	81
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.0%	76	Succ. Rt. +	100.6	60
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.3	66	Off. FP+	102.0	38
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.8	108	Redzone S&P+	104.1	47
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.3		ACTUAL	18.0	-3.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	76	69	60	81
RUSHING	53	115	108	115
PASSING	94	37	30	46
Standard Downs		70	74	70
Passing Downs		86	44	100

Q1 Rk	58	1st Down Rk	73
Q2 Rk	103	2nd Down Rk	73
Q3 Rk	7	3rd Down Rk	63
Q4 Rk	110

6. A Kalani Sitake defense

Andersen doesn't do bad defenses. He was successful as Utah's coordinator, and he found great success working with coordinator Dave Aranda at Utah State and Wisconsin. Aranda stayed in Madison, so Anderson is getting reacquainted with Sitake.

Sitake's Utah defenses were do-it-all units. They were stout against the run, and their backs were active against the pass. Passing was a far less terrifying option for opponents in 2014, but the Utes still got hands on quarterbacks and the passes they threw.

Sitake has his work cut out for him. There are some exciting pieces -- senior end Lavonte Barnett is a solid pass rusher, Justin Strong was super active for a freshman safety (five tackles for loss, three break-ups), and Larry Scott's 11 break-ups suggest he can be pretty sticky and aggressive.

But the new blood extends far beyond the coaching booth. Oregon State is tasked with replacing its top three players at each level of the defense: line, linebacker, and secondary. Known quantities are far fewer than what Sitake was working with in Salt Lake City.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	97.1	3.15	3.24	42.3%	63.8%	21.9%	94.8	5.0%	6.8%
Rank	78	94	61	101	45	34	77	52	78

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dylan Wynn	DE					12	42.5	6.6%	12.0	4.5	1	0	1	0
Obum Gwacham	DE					12	22.5	3.5%	5.5	4.0	0	0	1	0
Bud Delva	DT					12	21.0	3.2%	6.5	4.0	0	0	2	0
Lavonte Barnett	DE	6'3, 262	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8478	10	13.5	2.1%	5.5	4.5	0	2	0	0
Jaswha James	DE	6'2, 264	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8439	10	13.0	2.0%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Siale Hautau	DT					12	9.0	1.4%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Luke Hollingsworth	DT	6'3, 270	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7600	8	8.0	1.2%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jalen Grimble	DT	6'2, 291	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9160	6	5.0	0.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Bennett-Jackson	DT					9	4.0	0.6%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Titus Failauga	DE	6'3, 250	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8017	8	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ali'i Robins	DT	6'2, 289	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8010	8	1.5	0.2%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kyle Peko	DT	6'1, 317	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8607
Noke Tago	DT	6'2, 304	Jr.	NR	NR
Baker Pritchard	DE	6'3, 258	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8640
Kalani Vakameilalo	DT	6'3, 318	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8610
LaMone Williams	DE	6'2, 267	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8298
Sumner Houston	DT	6'2, 276	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8102
Elu Aydon	DT	6'3, 335	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8417

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
D.J. Alexander	WILL					12	58.5	9.0%	12.0	4.0	1	0	0	0
Michael Doctor	SAM					12	54.0	8.3%	5.0	0.0	3	3	2	0
Jabral Johnson	MIKE					12	48.5	7.5%	2.5	0.0	0	2	1	0
Rommel Mageo	MIKE	6'2, 232	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	11	17.0	2.6%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Caleb Saulo	WILL	6'1, 232	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8152	11	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kyle Haley	SAM	6'0, 217	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8100
Darrell Songy	LB	6'0, 223	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8170
Manase Hungalu	MIKE	6'0, 229	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7556
T.J. Hufanga	MIKE	5'11, 237	So.	NR	NR
Bright Ugwoegbu	LB	6'1, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8104
Jonathan Willis	LB	6'0, 209	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8019
Ricky Liuchan	LB	6'1, 237	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8266
Christian Folau	LB	6'1, 240	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8829

7. Scary depth

Oregon State's depth was already questionable. The Beavers were good in the first and third quarters of games (58th in Q1 S&P+, seventh in Q3) and horrendous in the second (103rd) and fourth (110th), and the defense suffered far more miscues as the season unfolded, allowing 4.6 yards per play in September, 5.7 in October, and 6.6 in November.

And that was before nine starters were lopped off of the depth chart.

To their long-term credit and short-term detriment, Andersen and Sitake did not load up on JUCOs to stem the bleeding. This means more five-year players and better depth down the line, but it also means the Beavers will be taking the field with last year's backups and a bunch of redshirt freshmen.

The good news, as it were, is that the run defense probably isn't going to be any worse. OSU ranked 115th in Rushing S&P+ last fall, and you can only fall so many spots below that. The pass rush could be promising with players like Barnett and Luke Hollingsworth in the mix, but Sitake might find his attempts at aggression thwarted by inexperience.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tyrequek Zimmerman	FS					12	74.5	11.5%	2	1	3	2	0	0
Ryan Murphy	SS					12	52.0	8.0%	6.5	0	1	8	1	0
Steven Nelson	CB					12	48.5	7.5%	2	0	2	8	0	0
Justin Strong	SS	5'9, 195	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8295	12	48.0	7.4%	5	1	0	3	1	0
Larry Scott	CB	5'11, 192	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7994	12	35.5	5.5%	2	0	0	11	0	0
Cyril Noland-Lewis	FS	6'1, 206	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8453	12	24.0	3.7%	2	2	0	0	0	0
Zack Robinson	SS					8	3.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Naji Patrick	CB	5'8, 192	Sr.	NR	NR	7	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kendall Hill	CB	6'1, 206	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7973
Devin Chappell	CB	6'2, 197	Jr.	NR	NR
Charles Okonkwo	CB	6'1, 190	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8560
Brandon Arnold	FS	5'11, 197	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8528
Chris Hayes	CB	6'1, 187	So.	NR	NR
Dwayne Williams	CB	5'9, 176	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752
Adam Soesman	S	6'1, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8475
Treston Decoud	CB	6'3, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8152
Shawn Wilson	CB	5'10, 165	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8498
Xavier Crawford	CB	6'0, 177	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8295

8. Exciting but thin

Justin Strong and Cyril Noland-Lewis hinted at playmaking ability at the safety position, and Scott's a keeper at corner. You can build around that.

But they were basically the only returning DBs who saw the field, and there aren't exactly many star recruits coming down the down the pike. Sophomores Charles Okonkwo and Brandon Arnold are promising athletes, but the next big play either makes will be the first.

Is conservatism in Sitake's nature? On offense, you can see how a run-first, slow-it-down attack can benefit a young quarterback. But how do you slow it down on defense? Plenty of teams have thrived with a bend-don't-break approach, aiming to prevent big plays and force opponents to use 10-12 mistake-free snaps to score.

But while Sitake's Utah defenses weren't bonzai units like a Virginia Tech or Michigan State, they were aggressive. So were Andersen's. How much attacking will they be able to get away with? Can solid safety play cover up mountains of inexperience?

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Keith Kostol			69	39.6	1	23	23	66.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Trevor Romaine			34	63.0	19	0	55.9%
Garrett Owens	5'9, 181	So.	29	59.2	6	0	20.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Garrett Owens	5'9, 181	So.	17-17	9-10	90.0%	2-3	66.7%
Trevor Romaine			16-16	5-6	83.3%	3-3	100.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Malcolm Marable	KR			32	23.7	0
Ryan Murphy	KR			13	22.7	1
Rahmel Dockery	PR	5'10, 179	Jr.	8	6.1	0
Victor Bolden	PR	5'9, 172	Jr.	4	11.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	70
Field Goal Efficiency	2
Punt Return Efficiency	99
Kick Return Efficiency	43
Punt Efficiency	109
Kickoff Efficiency	64
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	75

9. At least Owens is strong

Oregon State might not have a ton of scoring opportunities in 2015, but Garrett Owens should assure that the Beavers finish with points when they get the shot.Owens bailed them out against both Portland State and Washington State last year, making nine of 11 field goal attempts in those two games. He also missed two against PSU in his first collegiate game, but he didn't miss another one after that.

It's unclear whether this unit can help Oregon State out at all in the field position battle, however. The Beavers will be breaking in a new punter and a new kick return man, and leading returning punt returner Rahmel Dockery did next to nothing last year. Field position could be an important battle for this limited squad; I'm not sure special teams will carry its weight in that regard.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
4-Sep	Weber State	NR
12-Sep	at Michigan	35
19-Sep	San Jose State	105
25-Sep	Stanford	11
10-Oct	at Arizona	34
17-Oct	at Washington State	66
24-Oct	Colorado	75
31-Oct	at Utah	39
7-Nov	UCLA	7
14-Nov	at California	51
21-Nov	Washington	55
27-Nov	at Oregon	4

Five-Year F/+ Rk	9.9% (44)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	63 / 53
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	4 / 3.2
2014 TO Luck/Game	+0.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	8 (6, 2)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	5.4 (-0.4)

10. This is going to take some time

I might have liked the Andersen hire as much as any made in last season's carousel. But Riley did not leave Andersen a stocked cupboard, and after some offseason defections, the Beavers will have the thinnest two-deep in the conference.

Against this schedule, it would probably take a top-60 team to threaten 6-6, and I just don't see any way that even a good coach could pull off that, not with zero quarterback experience and so many new pieces on a thin defense.

The run game and sound defensive coaching will give OSU a chance at highlights. The Beavers should beat Weber State and San Jose State and remain close enough to have a shot against the trio of Washington State, Colorado, Washington, and maybe Cal. There's athleticism, and if Andersen finds some pieces, they'll have time to develop and thrive in coming years.

But this is a reset year, a Year Zero situation, in Corvallis.