Looking for a Big 12 dark horse? Oklahoma State has the pieces

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1. After the fall

Your track record determines your benefit of the doubt. If Alabama lost 18 starters one year, we'd still assume a top-10 performance. If Oregon lost all 11 starters on offense, we'd still assume prolific point totals. And if Kansas returned its entire two-deep, we'd still assume losses.

Oklahoma State returned just seven starters heading into 2014. The Cowboys had to replace a quarterback (Clint Chelf) who'd dominated down the stretch. They lost three of their top four receivers, four of their top seven offensive linemen (and renowned offensive line coach Joe Wickline), four of their top six linebackers, six of their top eight defensive backs, and both of their stud return men.

My response to all of this? Steadfast belief: "The Cowboys get the benefit of the doubt until they prove they don't deserve it."

And it wasn't just me. The stats saw the same thing. Despite the lost starters, OSU was projected 18th last May, one spot behind perceived national title contender Oklahoma. The stats pretty much nailed Oklahoma, which finished the season 19th.

OSU, meanwhile? 75th. Just a little bit off.

The offense cycled through three quarterbacks because of injury and ineffectiveness, and the run game collapsed. The defense had to do some shuffling in the back. The 'Pokes began fine (5-1 with a tight loss to defending national champion Florida State), then collapsed, losing five conference games in a row by an average score of 40-14.

The span from mid-October to late-November was OSU's worst since either Mike Gundy's first season in 2005 (1-7 in conference, average score: 40-21) or Bob Simmons' last season in 2000 (1-8 finish with a 28-6 loss to Southern Miss and a 58-0 loss to Texas Tech). It proved the floor for Gundy's program was far lower than I (or most) had perceived, and it caused a bit of an existential crisis in Stillwater. Had Gundy lost his touch? Was recruiting producing the same talent as before?

Luckily, the Cowboys didn't wait until 2015 to begin the rebound. After the dusk of a 28-7 home loss to Texas, and after a loss at Baylor dropped them to 5-6, OSU fell behind Oklahoma, 35-21, in Norman in the fourth quarter. But freshman quarterback Mason Rudolph hit Brandon Sheperd for a 43-yard score, and return man Tyreek Hill ripped off a 92-yard score with just 45 seconds left to force overtime. Ben Grogan's 21-yard field goal sealed both the comeback win and bowl eligibility, and Rudolph threw for 299 yards in a 30-22 Cactus Bowl win over Washington.

Instead of a limp 5-7, OSU ended up 7-6 and found its quarterback of the future. Instead of simply surviving, Oklahoma State got gangrene, spent six weeks in the hospital, THEN survived. The depth of the fall was disturbing, but we already saw signs of recovery, and now youth becomes experience. How far is the bounce back?

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 7-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 75
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	vs. Florida State	15	31-37	L	63%	7.6	47%
6-Sep	Missouri State	N/A	40-23	W	65%	8.9	99%
13-Sep	UTSA	109	43-13	W	91%	31.0	100%
25-Sep	Texas Tech	82	45-35	W	72%	13.9	90%
4-Oct	Iowa State	92	37-20	W	51%	0.6	80%
11-Oct	at Kansas	99	27-20	W	37%	-8.0	50%
18-Oct	at TCU	6	9-42	L	18%	-21.5	0%
25-Oct	West Virginia	40	10-34	L	40%	-5.7	23%
1-Nov	at Kansas State	26	14-48	L	14%	-25.1	0%
15-Nov	Texas	53	7-28	L	7%	-34.3	0%
22-Nov	at Baylor	10	28-49	L	26%	-14.8	0%
6-Dec	at Oklahoma	19	38-35	W	82%	21.7	78%
2-Jan	vs. Washington	58	30-22	W	85%	24.5	96%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	28.1	69	28.0	63
Points Per Game	27.6	76	31.2	94

2. A late rally is better than no rally

At few points in the first 11.5 games did OSU look like the top-20 team it was projected to be. There were just too many new players in important positions. But through six games, the 'Pokes were still playing like a top-40 team, which, considering quarterback J.W. Walsh got hurt early, was an accomplishment.

Unfortunately, opponents figured some things out. With all-or-nothing Daxx Garman at quarterback, backed by a bad running game, OSU's offense grew woefully inefficient. And the green secondary was repeatedly exposed. The result was a sustained run of awful play, one that began even before the wins stopped.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 4 games): 73% (~top 35 | record: 3-1)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 7 games): 28% (~top 90 | record: 2-5)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 2 games): 84% (~top 20 | record: 2-0)

There was indeed a rally.

The run game never came around -- starting back Desmond Roland averaged just 3.5 yards per carry over the final three games of his career -- but Mason Rudolph improved in a hurry. After completing 13 of 25 passes with two interceptions against Baylor, he went 36-for-61 (59 percent) for 572 yards, four scores, and two picks against OU and Washington. He developed a rapport with receiver Brandon Shepard (12 catches, 254 yards, 3 TD in the last two games).

And while the defense wasn't amazing, it was better.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.91	33	IsoPPP+	103.6	60
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.4%	103	Succ. Rt. +	95.5	85
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.2	59	Def. FP+	102.0	44
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.5	65	Redzone S&P+	95.7	77
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.5		ACTUAL	22	+5.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	85	68	84	60
RUSHING	102	92	101	84
PASSING	54	44	53	40
Standard Downs		67	66	74
Passing Downs		60	113	31

Q1 Rk	67	1st Down Rk	79
Q2 Rk	58	2nd Down Rk	90
Q3 Rk	115	3rd Down Rk	45
Q4 Rk	69

3. Dreadful inefficiency

When you can't run, and your quarterback is more comfortable throwing bombs than outs, you are going to struggle with three-and-outs and turnovers.

Daxx Garman showed massive potential, averaging 19 yards per completion in his first three appearances, with eight touchdowns to two picks. But when defenses adapted, and when the run game never really came around, Garman's production dropped like a rock.

• Garman (first 3 games): 56% completion rate, 19.0 yards/completion, 9% TD rate, 2% INT rate
• Garman (next 6 games): 54% completion rate, 10.8 yards/completion, 2% TD rate, 5% INT rate

It was all situational. His passer rating was 148.8 on third-and-10 or more, as his cannon was occasionally able to bail OSU out of trouble. But in the red zone, he was just 11-for-25 for 70 yards and a 112.3 rating. He took too many sacks, and OSU found itself in second- or third-and-long too frequently.

His passer rating was below 120 in each of his final six appearances and was below 100 three times, and then he suffered a concussion against Texas. Instead of starting a walk-on, Gundy and coordinator Mike Yurcich elected to remove Mason Rudolph's redshirt two games before the finish line. The gamble paid off, and with Rudolph looking so good, Garman saw the writing on the wall and transferred to Maryland.

Of course, part of Garman's problem was that he wasn't getting help from the run game. Only 31 percent of Desmond Roland's and Rennie Childs' carries gained five or more yards, and when they got a rare open-field opportunity, they didn't do much with it.

Quarterbacks and Tyreek Hill were the only things keeping OSU from even worse run efficiency numbers, and now Hill's gone, kicked off the team because of domestic assault allegations after his OU heroics.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Daxx Garman					152	277	2041	12	12	54.9%	31	10.1%	6.2
Mason Rudolph	6'4, 220	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8977	49	86	853	6	4	57.0%	8	8.5%	8.5
J.W. Walsh	6'2, 215	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9430	20	36	233	1	1	55.6%	1	2.7%	5.9
John Kolar	6'4, 185	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8987

4. Mason's the man (maybe)

When your first career win comes in Norman, you will probably struggle to corral expectations. The Rock Hill, S.C., product was disappointed that he couldn't complete his redshirt season, but his performance against OU and Washington set the table for a three-year starting run.

The run game is still scary, but at least Rudolph will have experience around him. Just about every receiver returns, as do six linemen with starting experience (42 career starts), seven if you include UAB transfer and two-year starting tackle Victor Salako.

The shuffling was a constant, but there are some likable pieces here. Most likable of all: there are no seniors. Whatever Rudolph becomes, he could have an increasingly continuous line in front of him.

The questions are how quickly the line can become something helpful, and which running back can become the most helpful. Childs is back, and redshirt freshman Sione Palelei has potential, but all eyes are on two JUCO transfers, particularly Chris Carson, once a Georgia commit.

Of course, while Rudolph is clearly OSU's man in the future tense, he still has to win the job. Senior J.W. Walsh had a few impressive moments in 2013 and nearly engineered an upset of Florida State in the season opener before he was lost for the season with injury. At the very least, he could add a mobile threat in red zone and short-yardage situations, and he could still win the job outright, too.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Desmond Roland	RB					203	770	10	3.8	3.1	30.5%	0	0
Tyreek Hill	RB					102	534	1	5.2	4.8	41.2%	1	0
Rennie Childs	RB	5'10, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8573	78	294	3	3.8	3.0	33.3%	0	0
Daxx Garman	QB					29	124	1	4.3	2.3	48.3%	4	2
Raymond Taylor	RB	5'8, 195	Jr.	NR	NR	18	70	0	3.9	4.7	38.9%	0	0
J.W. Walsh	QB	6'2, 215	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9430	14	107	2	7.6	8.2	42.9%	1	1
Mason Rudolph	QB	6'4, 220	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8977	6	18	0	3.0	0.8	50.0%	2	1
Brandon Sheperd	WR	6'1, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.9002	4	69	0	17.3	15.8	75.0%	2	1
Caleb Muncrief	WR	5'8, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7659
Sione Palelei	RB	5'10, 210	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8660
Chris Carson	RB	6'2, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8869
Todd Mays	RB	6'0, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8469

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Brandon Sheperd	WR	6'1, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.9002	63	39	737	61.9%	16.6%	60.3%	11.7	262	11.8	102.5
James Washington	WR	6'0, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8451	62	28	455	45.2%	16.4%	59.7%	7.3	89	7.2	63.3
David Glidden	SLOT	5'8, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8444	61	42	598	68.9%	16.1%	62.3%	9.8	97	9.9	83.1
Tyreek Hill	RB					40	31	282	77.5%	10.6%	67.5%	7.1	-81	7.6	39.2
Jhajuan Seales	WR	6'2, 198	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115	38	18	278	47.4%	10.0%	60.5%	7.3	46	7.1	38.7
Marcell Ateman	WR	6'4, 210	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9006	35	20	268	57.1%	9.2%	62.9%	7.7	21	7.6	37.3
Austin Hays	SLOT	6'2, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	17	9	57	52.9%	4.5%	47.1%	3.4	-56	3.3	7.9
Chris Lacy	WR	6'3, 195	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8472	16	4	47	25.0%	4.2%	56.3%	2.9	-16	2.9	6.5
Jeremy Seaton	FB	6'2, 250	Sr.	NR	NR	15	13	162	86.7%	4.0%	73.3%	10.8	13	9.3	22.5
Blake Jarwin	TE	6'5, 242	Jr.	NR	NR	11	5	107	45.5%	2.9%	45.5%	9.7	42	12.0	14.9
Ra'Shaad Samples	WR					5	3	11	60.0%	1.3%	60.0%	2.2	-26	2.1	1.5
Kameron Doolittle	SLOT	5'8, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8500	4	2	40	50.0%	1.1%	50.0%	10.0	15	10.9	5.6
Desmond Roland	RB					4	2	-5	50.0%	1.1%	0.0%	-1.3	-30	N/A	-0.7
C.J. Curry	WR	6'2, 200	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8819	3	2	18	66.7%	0.8%	66.7%	6.0	-6	5.2	2.5
Zac Veatch	TE	6'4, 270	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8609
Keenen Brown	WR	6'3, 205	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8932
Jordan Frazier	TE	6'5, 255	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7973
Jalen McClesky	WR	5'10, 160	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8362

5. All the receivers you need

If the running game isn't a liability, and if the pass protection improves (or Rudolph gets better at making timely reads), the receiving corps is good enough to lead a major offensive rebound. Of the 10 players targeted by at least 10 passes last year, only Hill is gone.

Brandon Sheperd averaged 11.7 yards per target as a first-time No. 1 last season, and slot receiver David Glidden became a nice possession weapon for a team in desperate need of efficiency. And youngsters James Washington (four catches for 114 yards vs. Baylor), Jhajuan Seales (four for 75 vs. Iowa State), and Marcell Ateman (six for 130 against Texas Tech) -- all either freshmen or sophomores last year -- flashed big-play potential, albeit with iffy catch rates. Plus, now four-star redshirt freshman Keenen Brown is awaiting his turn. All the run game has to be is competent, and the passing game could be spectacular.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.1	2.68	3.45	35.8%	64.4%	18.5%	63.1	8.2%	10.0%
Rank	66	101	46	97	90	54	124	118	105

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Daniel Koenig	LT					33
Victor Salako (UAB)	LT	6'6, 315	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	23
Chris Grisbhy	LG					21
Paul Lewis	C	6'3, 295	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8634	13
Zac Veatch	RG/TE	6'4, 270	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8609	12
Michael Wilson	LG	6'6, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9032	8
Zachary Crabtree	RT	6'7, 305	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8569	8
Brandon Garrett	LT					4
Jesse Robinson	RG	6'6, 310	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8364	2
Devin Davis	OL					2
Brad Lundblade	C	6'3, 300	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115	1
Jack Kurzu	OL	6'4, 305	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8348	0
Jaxon Salinas	RG	6'4, 305	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8327	0
Lemaefe Galea'i	LG	6'5, 325	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8336
Matthew Mucha	LT	6'6, 285	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8210
Vaimoe Sekona	OL	6'4, 285	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8631
Brandon Pertile	RT	6'6, 310	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8275
Johnny Wilson	OL	6'3, 295	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8591

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.90	96	IsoPPP+	100.3	66
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.8%	48	Succ. Rt. +	110.8	29
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.7	78	Off. FP+	101.0	51
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.6	86	Redzone S&P+	101.2	59
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.0		ACTUAL	14.0	-5.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	93	51	30	66
RUSHING	59	44	30	61
PASSING	113	63	36	79
Standard Downs		46	30	57
Passing Downs		66	49	78

Q1 Rk	107	1st Down Rk	48
Q2 Rk	25	2nd Down Rk	69
Q3 Rk	60	3rd Down Rk	81
Q4 Rk	70

6. Same personality, more youth

In 2013, new OSU defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer had exactly the tools he needed to fulfill his philosophy. As with Pat Narduzzi at Michigan State (now Pitt), Phil Bennett at Baylor, Bud Foster at Virginia Tech, and other increasingly successful defensive minds, Spencer seeks aggression, even if it comes with allowing some big plays.

Play mean football, force mistakes and three-and-outs, and live with the occasional big gainer.

His first OSU defense was the perfect combination of speed and experience. The Cowboys put up strong efficiency and havoc numbers but had so many seniors in the back seven that they really didn't allow big plays either. OSU improved from 43rd to ninth in Def. S&P+ and helped the Cowboys improve from eight to 10 wins despite early-season offensive issues.

In 2014, the mentality remained the same, but the defense got much younger. The result: a little bit less efficiency and a lot more big plays allowed. After allowing 44 gains of 20-plus yards in 2013 (15th in the country), the 'Pokes allowed 58 (70th) in 2014. After allowing 10 gains of 40-plus (29th), they allowed 17 (91st). This still wasn't a BAD defense, but there were too many mistakes to be consistently successful.

Youth becomes experience, however. OSU now returns five of its top eight linemen, six of seven linebackers (plus a couple of intriguing transfers), and five of six defensive backs. Interior defense could be an issue following the loss of tackles James Castleman and Ofa Hautau and linebacker Josh Furman, but those are pretty much all the losses. Spencer should be able to do figure out what to do with this group.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	98.8	2.71	3.76	38.5%	68.3%	20.2%	124.4	5.7%	7.7%
Rank	67	35	107	58	72	52	26	42	61

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Emmanuel Ogbah	DE	6'4, 275	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8528	13	42.0	5.4%	17.0	11.0	0	5	1	0
Jimmy Bean	DE	6'5, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8615	13	35.5	4.6%	6.5	3.5	0	1	3	0
James Castleman	DT					13	35.5	4.6%	7.5	3.0	1	2	0	0
Ofa Hautau	DT					13	24.0	3.1%	4.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Sam Wren	DE					13	20.0	2.6%	6.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Trace Clark	DE	6'4, 257	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8701	13	14.0	1.8%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Vili Leveni	DT	6'3, 290	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8153	13	11.5	1.5%	4.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Vincent Taylor	DT	6'3, 300	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8944	10	10.5	1.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Victor Irokansi	DE	6'3, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8478	9	2.0	0.3%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Eric Davis	DT	6'3, 295	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8738
Ben Hughes	DT	6'3, 310	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8839
Jordan Brailford	DE	6'3, 240	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8879
Jarrell Owens	DE	6'3, 265	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8735
Trey Carter	DE	6'4, 267	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8807
Motekiai Maile	DT	6'4, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8706
Darrion Daniels	DT	6'3, 290	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9032
Louis Brown	DE	6'6, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8707
Taaj Bakari	DT	6'2, 295	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8489

7. Got tackles?

Junior end Emmanuel Ogbah enjoyed one of the most impressive breakout campaigns you're ever going to see. He had four sacks as a freshman reserve in 2013, and he and Jimmy Bean were tasked with raising their game last fall; Bean did alright, with 3.5 sacks and three forced fumbles, but Ogbah was a stud. He sacked Jameis Winston twice in the season opener, then racked up nine more and broke up five passes in the following 12 games.

Even with the loss of the Cowboys' best blitzer, Furman, it's hard to worry much about the OSU pass rush as long as Ogbah is on the field.

Meanwhile, in Ryan Simmons and Seth Jacobs, OSU boasts a pair of dual-threat linebackers; they combined for 16 non-sack tackles for loss (which suggests good run instincts) and 11 passes defensed. With a trio of well-regarded sophomores (including former four-star recruit Gyasi Akem) and two transfers -- Stephen F. Austin-by-way-of-JUCO strongsider Jordan Burton and former California signee Chad Whitener -- OSU has more linebackers than it will be able to use.

The tackle position, however, could slow the front seven down. The linebackers can only do their jobs if the tackles are occupying blockers, and losing James Castleman and Ofa Hautau leaves OSU unknown at the position. Sophomores Vili Leveni, Vincent Taylor, and Ben Hughes all come well-regarded, and Leveni showed major play-making potential last year. [Update: Leveni will miss the 2015 season with an Achilles tendon injury.] Plus, two newcomers -- JUCO transfer Motekiai Maile and four-star freshman Darrion Daniels -- could have an immediate impact. None of these players are seniors; in fact, Bean and Simmons might be the only two senior contributors in the front seven.

So as with so much of the offense, OSU has a metric ton of players to be excited about for 2016 and beyond. But there's always the chance for growing pains at tackle in 2015.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ryan Simmons	MLB	6'0, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8778	13	81.0	10.4%	12.0	2.0	0	4	0	0
Seth Jacobs	WLB	6'2, 225	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8819	13	74.0	9.5%	6.0	0.0	2	5	2	0
Josh Furman	SLB					13	55.0	7.1%	14.0	7.0	1	4	1	0
Jordan Burton (SFA)	SLB	6'3, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8373	11	55.0	7.4%	3.5	0.0	1	2	1	0
Justin Phillips	SLB	6'0, 220	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8451	8	14.0	1.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kirk Tucker	LB	6'2, 195	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8600	13	13.0	1.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Gyasi Akem	SLB	6'1, 215	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9127	10	8.5	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Demarcus Sherod	MLB					7	5.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Devante Averette	WLB	6'0, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463	3	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kris Catlin	LB	6'1, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8049
Chad Whitener (California)	MLB	6'1, 240	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8426
Josh Mabin	LB	6'2, 235	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8737
Kevin Henry	LB	6'1, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8904

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jordan Sterns	FS	6'1, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8658	13	81.0	10.4%	5.5	0	0	4	2	0
Kevin Peterson	CB	5'11, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8627	13	52.0	6.7%	1.5	0	2	11	0	0
Tre Flowers	SS	6'3, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8367	12	50.0	6.4%	2	0	0	3	0	0
Ramon Richards	CB	6'0, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8251	13	37.0	4.8%	2	0	3	4	0	0
Larry Stephens	SS					8	34.0	4.4%	2	0	1	3	0	0
Jerel Morrow	SS	6'0, 190	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8816	13	11.5	1.5%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Deric Robertson	FS	6'2, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8389	11	7.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Elliott Jeffcoat	S					12	7.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chris Hardeman	CB	5'9, 178	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8879	10	5.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darius Curry	CB	6'1, 195	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8587	4	4.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ashton Lampkin	CB	5'11, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8559	4	3.5	0.5%	0	0	2	3	0	0
DeShawn Franklin	S					8	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Juwan Offray	CB					7	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Miketavius Jones	CB	5'10, 175	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR
Dylan Harding	FS	6'2, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8299
Antwan Hadley	DB	6'3, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8100
Kenneth McGruder	S	6'1, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8742

8. Freshmen become sophomores

When you go from corners Justin Gilbert and Tyler Patmon and safeties Daytawion Lowe, Lyndell Johnson, and Shamiel Gary in 2013 to a load of freshmen and sophomores, you're going to suffer a dropoff. There's simply no way around it.

OSU fell from 12th in Passing S&P+ to 63rd, and the drop would have been more precipitous if the pass rush hadn't been such a pleasant surprise. Opponents were far more comfortable passin.

• 2013: 54% completion rate, 10.9 yards/completion, 3% TD rate, 4% INT rate
• 2014: 61% completion rate, 12.7 yards/completion, 5% TD rate, 3% INT rate

OSU's secondary got even younger as the season progressed. After a titillating start (five passes defensed in four games), Ashton Lampkin was lost for the season with injury. Senior safety Larry Stephens missed five games in the middle of the year, as well. Freshmen like corner Ramon Richards and sophomores Tre Flowers and Jerel Morrow got more playing time than expected, and the results were predictably up and down.

But last year's freshmen and sophomores are this year's sophomores and juniors, and OSU returns just about everybody, including Lampkin. Toss in JUCO transfer Antwan Hadley, and you've got a crowded depth chart. The pass defense should improve quite a bit.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Kip Smith			81	41.8	5	33	25	71.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Kip Smith			70	59.2	14	0	20.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Ben Grogan	6'1, 186	Jr.	41-41	17-20	85.0%	5-8	62.5%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Tyreek Hill	KR			30	24.7	2
Brandon Sheperd	KR	6'1, 195	Sr.	6	21.3	0
Tyreek Hill	PR			27	9.5	1
Brandon Sheperd	PR	6'1, 195	Sr.	2	3.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	11
Field Goal Efficiency	41
Punt Return Efficiency	52
Kick Return Efficiency	10
Punt Efficiency	30
Kickoff Efficiency	80
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	62

9. So many field goals

Oklahoma State had another good special teams unit; this is nothing new. The Cowboys have ranked 12th or better in special teams efficiency in five of the last seven years, which is nearly unprecedented in such a small-sample enterprise.

Tyreek Hill was OSU's latest great return man, Kip Smith's punts were high and long enough, kick coverage was a little shaky but not too costly, and Ben Grogan showed off a powerful leg on field goals, making five of eight from beyond 40 yards.

The biggest problem, however, was related to Grogan: he was asked to attempt 28 field goals. Only eight teams attempted more. OSU's efficiency issues bled into a problem finishing drives, and Grogan was asked to bail the 'Pokes out and salvage three points too many times.

Without Smith and Hill, it might be difficult for OSU to produce another high ranking here. But at least the Cowboys have Grogan. Maybe this year they won't ask him to do quite as much.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
3-Sep	at Central Michigan	91
12-Sep	Central Arkansas	NR
19-Sep	UTSA	121
26-Sep	at Texas	36
3-Oct	Kansas State	33
10-Oct	at West Virginia	40
24-Oct	Kansas	95
31-Oct	at Texas Tech	53
7-Nov	TCU	18
14-Nov	at Iowa State	86
21-Nov	Baylor	14
28-Nov	Oklahoma	10

Five-Year F/+ Rk	34.9% (12)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	33 / 32
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-8 / 2.6
2014 TO Luck/Game	-4.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (7, 8)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	6.6 (0.4)

10. One hell of a November

One way or another, Oklahoma State is going to play a major role in the Big 12 race.

First, if the run game rebounds to a mediocre level and defensive tackle isn't a major drag, the Cowboys could use their friendly odd-year schedule and make a title run themselves. The four highest-projected teams in the conference all visit Stillwater.

But even if the Cowboys are still too flawed, what are the odds of them losing to all four of those top teams at home?

OSU gets TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma all on November 7 or later. The Cowboys have outscored TCU by 36 points in the two Stillwater meetings since TCU joined the Big 12, OU and OSU have split their last four meetings, and Baylor hasn't come within 28 points of the Cowboys on Lewis Field since losing 24-10 in 1998.

Any or all of the conference's primary contenders could suffer a late-season loss in northern Oklahoma.

It's hard for me to see OSU rebounding all the way back into the top 20 (mainly because, wow, does the run game have a lot to prove), but it's also hard for me to see the 'Pokes remaining too far down. The passing game and a good defense should get the Cowboys back into the top 40 at least, and the schedule is all sorts of friendly.

OSU has attended nine straight bowls under Gundy, and after keeping the streak alive by the skin of their teeth, the 'Pokes should clear that bar pretty easily. And if anybody from the bottom half of the league is going to make a sudden title run, a la TCU last year, it's almost certainly going to be Gundy's squad.