At the end of each conference preview series (here's the whole Pac-12), I look at how I perceive the conference's balance of power heading into 2015. This is in no way based on schedules. These are not predictions. They're just how I would rank the teams after writing thousands of words about each.
In previous conference power rankings, I put four teams in the ACC's top tier, three in the Big 12's and one in the Big Ten's. I'm putting five in the Pac-12's. I nearly talked myself into a sixth.
The Pac-12 is wonderfully deep this year. The SEC is probably still the best conference, but if we're doubting that at the end of the year, the conference out West will be the reason why.
Tier 1
1. Oregon
2. UCLA
3. USC
4. Arizona State
5. Stanford
Oregon's starting out atop the list for what should be pretty obvious reasons, but it wouldn't be surprising to me if any of these five teams won the Pac-12.
UCLA has everything but a known QB. USC has everything but a pass rush. ASU has crazy speed and won 10 games last year during a rebuild. Stanford's offense will be stable as long as Kevin Hogan is healthy, and I can't make myself worry too much about the D.
Tier 2
Arizona was a tough call for me. The Wildcats should be simply loaded in 2016, but I think this is a water-treading season. They'll still probably end up in the top 30, but they're a step behind the others.
Utah is breaking in just a few too many pieces for me to trust them to make a serious run.
Tier 3
8. California
9. Washington State
If either of these teams remember how to play defense, they could threaten eight-plus wins. As it stands, they'll scare the teams above them and probably get scared by the teams below.
Tier 4
10. Colorado
11. Washington
12. Oregon State
Washington and Oregon State will undergo a bit of a reset year with too many pieces to keep up in this loaded conference. Colorado is still climbing but probably won't rise enough to reach Tier 3.
Poor Colorado. Better than two teams, almost as good as two others ... and none of the four teams in their range are in the South. Their division houses No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 6, and No. 7 on this list.
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Pac-12 North
| Team | 2014 Record (Conf.) | 2014 F/+ Rk | 5-Yr F/+ Rk | 2-Yr Rec. Rk | 5-Yr Rec. Rk | 2014 TO Luck/Gm | Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) |
2014 2nd-order wins |
| Oregon | 13-2 (8-1) | 3 | 2 | 23 | 17 | +2.5 | 12 (7, 5) | 12.9 (+0.1) |
| Stanford | 8-5 (5-4) | 18 | 3 | 17 | 15 | +0.4 | 11 (9, 2) | 9.4 (-1.4) |
| Cal | 5-7 (3-6) | 65 | 72 | 46 | 28 | +2.3 | 18 (8, 10) | 4.7 (+0.3) |
| Wazzu | 3-9 (2-7) | 77 | 92 | 55 | 62 | -3.5 | 16 (8, 8) | 4.2 (-1.2) |
| Washington | 8-6 (4-5) | 58 | 46 | 34 | 26 | +4.1 | 8 (4, 4) | 7.9 (+0.1) |
| OSU | 5-7 (2-7) | 74 | 44 | 63 | 53 | +0.3 | 8 (6, 2) | 5.4 (-0.4) |
Pac-12 South
| Team | 2014 Record (Conf.) | 2014 F/+ Rk | 5-Yr F/+ Rk | 2-Yr Rec. Rk | 5-Yr Rec. Rk | 2014 TO Luck/Gm | Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) |
2014 2nd-order wins |
| UCLA | 10-3 (6-3) | 12 | 32 | 4 | 16 | +0.9 | 16 (8, 8) | 8.2 (+1.8) |
| USC | 9-4 (6-3) | 16 | 16 | 2 | 2 | -0.2 | 14 (7, 7) | 7.9 (+1.1) |
| ASU | 10-3 (6-3) | 27 | 28 | 24 | 35 | +4.7 | 16 (7, 9) | 9.7 (+0.3) |
| Arizona | 10-4 (7-2) | 28 | 34 | 41 | 49 | -0.7 | 12 (6, 6) | 8.0 (+2.0) |
| Utah | 9-4 (5-4) | 29 | 41 | 51 | 45 | +0.2 | 13 (6, 7) | 7.2 (+1.8) |
| Colorado | 2-10 (0-9) | 83 | 106 | 61 | 58 | -3.6 | 14 (6, 8) | 3.6 (-1.6) |