If football didn't involve scoring points, the Texas Longhorns would be doing great

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1. Five years an also-ran

From #branding and money perspectives, life as a Longhorn has rarely been better than it is right now. The Longhorn Network is doing better than you think, and revenues are second to, temporarily, one. The facilities look nice, and both major sports have made no-brainer hires in the past 20 months.

These are good things when it comes to health and direction. So why doesn't it seem like anybody in burnt orange is very happy?

(Well, besides the impersonal, penny-pinching athletic director, that is.)

Easy: for five consecutive years, Texas has, by Texas' standards, stunk on the football field. All the revenue and branding in the world hasn't kept the Longhorns from going 36-28, with two below-.500 finishes, since losing to Alabama in 2009's BCS title game. Colt McCoy suffered a dead arm early in that game, and Texas hasn't had a quarterback who was both healthy and good since.

The defense has been solid (top-25 in Def. S&P+ in six of seven seasons), but the offense has failed to get out of its own way (top-50 in Off. S&P+ just once in five years).

Mack Brown couldn't pull Texas out of its funk. The Longhorns ended up hiring Charlie Strong, the betting favorite to get the job, and on paper, the hire made plenty of sense.

Strong is a Toughness™ guy, a Discipline™ guy, a Family™ guy. Though he provided a recruiting upgrade at Louisville, his Cardinal classes (according to Rivals: 29th in 2011, 42nd in 2012, 52nd in 2013) would have been considered disasters in Austin.

Meanwhile, Texas would have killed for Louisville's performance on the field. Louisville has been better than Texas in the F/+ rankings in two of the last four seasons (2010, 2013) and was even in a third (2012).

Strong proved he doesn't need top-20 classes to craft a top-20 product. Now, every job's different, and the Texas job is in a climate all its own. For all we know, the extra pressures might prevent him from gaining traction. But until he proves otherwise, we know he can identify the pieces he needs, and we know he can coach that talent. He brings to the table everything Brown didn't (for better and for worse).

When you attempt this much of a culture change, the first-year results are likely to be shaky. Strong kicked quite a few guys off of the team; others transferred. The result was a team with a stout defense and a no-identity offense. Texas lost five of seven games to fall to the brink of bowl ineligibility but looked great in three November wins that got them to 6-5. Then they got drilled by two top-10-caliber teams.

Reaching a bowl and providing a late-season glimpse of what could be was enough of a feat for Strong's first season. And now the real work begins.

Whatever slack he received when he took the job is either gone or about to expire. And to put it nicely, there is still quite a bit of work to be done on offense.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-7 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 53
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	North Texas	125	38-7	W	99%	55.1	100%
6-Sep	BYU	46	7-41	L	14%	-24.8	0%
13-Sep	vs. UCLA	12	17-20	L	75%	15.9	59%
27-Sep	at Kansas	99	23-0	W	88%	27.2	100%
4-Oct	Baylor	10	7-28	L	59%	5.2	6%
11-Oct	vs. Oklahoma	19	26-31	L	79%	19.1	56%
18-Oct	Iowa State	92	48-45	W	61%	6.5	81%
25-Oct	at Kansas State	26	0-23	L	28%	-13.6	1%
1-Nov	at Texas Tech	82	34-13	W	90%	29.4	99%
8-Nov	West Virginia	40	33-16	W	87%	26.3	92%
15-Nov	at Oklahoma State	75	28-7	W	97%	43.7	100%
27-Nov	TCU	6	10-48	L	36%	-8.1	0%
29-Dec	vs. Arkansas	9	7-31	L	30%	-12.3	0%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	26.4	80	16.3	7
Points Per Game	21.4	109	23.8	31

2. Bringing it (or not) in big games

Texas was a product of its schedule. The Longhorns played six top-30 teams they were not ready to beat, and they beat pretty much everybody else.

• Average Percentile Performance (vs. F/+ top 30): 51% (~top 65 | record: 0-6 | avg. score: Opp 30, UT 11)
• Average Percentile Performance (vs. No. 31-plus): 77% (~top 30 | record: 6-1 | avg. score: UT 30, Opp 18)

UT played solid ball against good UCLA and Oklahoma teams and, by the win expectancy figures above, were unlucky to lose both. But the 'Horns got drubbed by Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, and Arkansas.

If they had a clear athletic advantage, they could overwhelm lesser opponents. They got posterized by BYU for a second straight year, but against their other six opponents ranked outside of the F/+ top 30, they won by an average score of 34-15.

Looking through this lens, it's hard to say if the late-season "surge, then collapse" narrative was true, or whether it was simply that Texas ripped apart three lesser teams (Texas Tech, WVU, OSU), then got crushed by two teams that were a lot better.

Regardless, by the end, Texas had proved the defense was going to be elite in no time (and might have been already), and that the patchwork offensive staff, with confusing roles and an unclear identity, might continue to hold the Longhorns back.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.77	106	IsoPPP+	89.6	94
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.1%	86	Succ. Rt. +	101.9	64
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.6	101	Def. FP+	102.0	44
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.2	84	Redzone S&P+	103.1	58
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.7		ACTUAL	25	+1.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	113	85	65	94
RUSHING	101	52	56	50
PASSING	90	99	76	110
Standard Downs		66	59	76
Passing Downs		108	84	114

Q1 Rk	72	1st Down Rk	117
Q2 Rk	51	2nd Down Rk	87
Q3 Rk	128	3rd Down Rk	89
Q4 Rk	71

3. Identity vs. talent

Basically, "identity" boils down to knowing how you're going to move the ball when you need to and knowing how to leverage your strengths and minimize your weaknesses.

Not all coaches have a definable system, and that's okay. New Pitt coordinator Jim Chaney is one of my favorite offensive coaches in the country, and in the last three seasons he's had success with a spread-esque Tennessee offense that leaned on two receivers and a power-oriented Arkansas offense that used a run-and-run-again approach.

If you have a grasp of tactics, you can make big changes from year to year based on the strength of your personnel.

-- 2015 Virginia Tech preview

You don't have to be Mike Leach to have an offensive identity, but you have to be something.

To secure the services of renowned line coach Joe Wickline from Oklahoma State, Strong evidently had to give him the coordinator position, while Shawn Watson, Strong's coordinator at Louisville, took the "Assistant Head Coach for Offense" title. They were in essence co-coordinators, and it was hard to figure out what they wanted to do with the ball. Or at least, it was hard to see why they were asking their quarterback to play away from his strengths.

Texas attempted balance, running 61 percent of the time on standard downs (one percent above the national average), but Wickline and Watson put a lot on their quarterback's shoulders, asking him to throw 71 percent of the time on passing downs, 4 percent more than average. Despite a pro-style label, they did a decent job of spreading defenses out with a lot of quick, horizontal passes and forcing defenders to make solo tackles.

This is rational, but it in no way played to the strength of Texas' personnel. The Longhorns' running game was decent (as long as you ignore the recruiting rankings that suggest it should have been fantastic), but asking quarterback Tyrone Swoopes, an efficient runner, to throw on passing downs was strange. Swoopes had a 129.6 passer rating on first downs, when opponents had to mind the run, but he was 56-for-110 with five interceptions on third-and-4 or more, and considering the length of his passes (yards per completion: 10.8), he took too many sacks and didn't complete a high enough percentage.

Nearly half of Swoopes' non-sack carries gained at least five yards; he's a big guy, and while he's probably not a threat to bust an 80-yard run, he's nimble enough to distract defenses. But he was a square peg in a round-hole offense, rushing only about six times per game, and when the run game wasn't working, he wasn't going to be able to bail the 'Horns out with the pass. In his last six games, he produced a passer rating over 95 just twice; he appeared to break through against OSU (24-for-33, 305 yards, two scores), but then he was dreadful against TCU and Arkansas (33-for-59, 257 yards, one touchdown, five picks).

The square-peg aspect of the offense was evident in the per-quarter and per-drive stats. Texas was horrific out of the gates in each half (72nd in Q1 S&P+, 128th! in Q3) before adapting in the second (51st) and fourth quarters (71st). Meanwhile, first downs were a debacle (117th). It was as if the gameplans never worked until they had to be adapted on the fly.

Redshirt freshman Jerrod Heard "closed the gap" on Swoopes in the spring QB race, but a) Swoopes still took most of the first-team snaps, and b) Heard was also a dual-threat in high school -- he threw for 2,148 yards and rushed for 2,172 as a senior at Denton Guyer.

Obviously you want to be able to throw, and obviously you don't want your QB taking 20 hits per game, but even if Heard wins the job, will they play to his strengths? He's probably a more natural passer than Swoopes (a relatively inefficient passer even in high school), but might he be a similar square peg?

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Tyrone Swoopes	6'4, 248	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9188	224	384	2409	13	11	58.3%	26	6.3%	5.4
David Ash					19	34	190	1	0	55.9%	2	5.6%	4.8
Jerrod Heard	6'2, 200	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9653
Kai Locksley	6'3, 188	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8907

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Malcolm Brown	RB					183	708	6	3.9	3.9	29.5%	0	0
Johnathan Gray	RB	5'11, 206	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9973	146	636	7	4.4	5.3	34.2%	3	2
Tyrone Swoopes	QB	6'4, 248	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9188	82	467	4	5.7	5.0	47.6%	4	3
D'Onta Foreman	RB	6'2, 231	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8383	16	74	0	4.6	8.1	31.3%	1	1
Daje Johnson	WR	5'10, 184	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9187	7	88	0	12.6	7.8	85.7%	0	0
David Ash	QB					5	-1	1	-0.2		0.0%	3	2
Duke Catalon	RB	5'10, 202	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9155
Chris Warren III	RB	6'2, 239	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9605
Kirk Johnson	RB	6'0, 194	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8866

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
John Harris	WR-X					104	68	1051	65.4%	26.1%	47.1%	10.1	232	10.2	115.6
Jaxon Shipley	WR-H					87	59	581	67.8%	21.9%	60.9%	6.7	-125	6.7	63.9
Marcus Johnson	WR-Z	6'1, 194	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9080	57	27	313	47.4%	14.3%	45.6%	5.5	-36	5.5	34.4
Johnathan Gray	RB	5'11, 206	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9973	32	20	118	62.5%	8.0%	37.5%	3.7	-125	4.6	13.0
Geoff Swaim	TE					24	10	70	41.7%	6.0%	54.2%	2.9	-63	3.0	7.7
Malcolm Brown	RB					20	16	58	80.0%	5.0%	40.0%	2.9	-128	2.5	6.4
Jacorey Warrick	WR-Z	5'11, 172	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9107	18	10	94	55.6%	4.5%	55.6%	5.2	-30	5.1	10.3
Armanti Foreman	WR-H	6'0, 194	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9448	17	10	188	58.8%	4.3%	41.2%	11.1	65	9.1	20.7
M.J. McFarland	TE					15	11	53	73.3%	3.8%	80.0%	3.5	-77	3.9	5.8
Daje Johnson	WR-H	5'10, 184	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9187	12	5	-7	41.7%	3.0%	50.0%	-0.6	-74	-0.7	-0.8
Lorenzo Joe	WR-X	6'2, 202	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9219	5	3	36	60.0%	1.3%	40.0%	7.2	-1	9.9	4.0
Andrew Beck	TE	6'3, 239	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8665	2	0	0	0.0%	0.5%	50.0%	0.0	-3	0.0	0.0
Alex De La Torre	FB	6'1, 243	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8731
Blake Whiteley	TE	6'5, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8685
Jake Oliver	WR	6'3, 219	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9265
Dorian Leonard	WR-X	6'3, 203	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8634
Roderick Bernard	WR	5'9, 163	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8792
John Burt	WR	6'2, 184	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9358
Devonaire Clarington	TE	6'5, 229	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9161
Ryan Newsome	WR	5'8, 165	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9088
DeAndre McNeal	WR	6'2, 228	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8963

4. Big-play potential vs. production

Once Texas fell behind schedule, the drive was likely to end quickly. And while I can talk about how Swoopes felt ill-fitted to be throwing so often, there's no question that the running game could have helped him out. Under 30 percent of lead rusher Malcolm Brown's carries gained even five yards, and Brown's big-play ability was minimal.

If a big play was coming, it was likely from the more error-prone Johnathan Gray, who fumbled four times (Brown: 0) but lit a spark during UT's late-season win streak. Against Texas Tech, WVU, and OSU, he rushed 42 times for 258 yards (6.1 per carry) and five touchdowns. (He then rushed 17 times for nine yards against TCU and Arkansas.) His negative plays were more negative than Brown's, but he also created positives. So did rarely-used third-stringer D'Onta Foreman.

In the passing game, the security blankets were breakout star John Harris and possession man Jaxon Shipley. Marcus Johnson, a big-play weapon in 2013, couldn't seem to get on the same page with Swoopes and caught just eight passes for 72 yards over the last six games. Daje Johnson, long viewed as a potential star, got just 19 intended touches (targets and carries) and gained just 81 yards.

The primary goal was non-negative plays, which explains why the outlets were Brown in the backfield and Harris and Shipley out wide. Harris was the only of the three who had any big-play ability.

The guys who will be playing large roles in 2015 have more potential explosiveness but unproven stability. Gray should be ready to shoulder Brown's load; he's rarely looked like the blue-chipper he was supposed to be, but he's solid. Between Foreman, redshirt freshman Duke Catalon, and newcomers Chris Warren II and Kirk Johnson, a decent backup should emerge. [Update: It won't be Catalon, who left the program early in August camp.]

The receiving corps is a mystery, however. Marcus Johnson has plenty of potential, and Armanti Foreman erupted late, catching six passes for 165 yards against OSU and TCU. Daje Johnson has one final year to move the dial from potential to production, and plenty of other former star recruits -- junior Jacorey Warrick, sophomores Lorenzo Joe and Jake Oliver, freshmen John Burt and Ryan Newsome -- could develop.

But a quarterback who needs help has no guarantee he'll find it.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	99.5	2.82	2.93	35.3%	74.4%	21.2%	95.7	4.1%	7.6%
Rank	76	84	96	102	17	94	76	51	69

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Dominic Espinosa	C					40
Sedrick Flowers	LG	6'3, 319	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9698	14
Kent Perkins	RG	6'5, 320	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9801	14
Marcus Hutchins	LT	6'5, 284	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8578	13
Taylor Doyle	C	6'4, 303	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8500	11
Kennedy Estelle	LT					9
Camrhon Hughes	RT	6'7, 326	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9403	7
Jake Raulerson	C	6'5, 295	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9433	4
Darius James	RT					2
Jake McMillon	LG	6'3, 290	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8489
Terrell Cuney	LG	6'1, 297	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8632
Alex Anderson	OL	6'4, 307	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8398
Elijah Rodriguez	RG	6'3, 294	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8166
Brandon Hodges	LT	6'5, 307	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8717
Tristan Nickelson	RT	6'8, 317	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7839
Connor Williams	RT	6'5, 290	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8773
Patrick Vahe	OL	6'3, 299	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9396

5. The line never had a chance (but might now)

I feel bad pointing out Swoopes' deficiencies, not only because he was asked to run an offense that didn't fit, but also because he was given very little help from his front five.

The Texas line broke through in 2013, improving to 35th in Adj. Line Yards and 41st in Adj. Sack Rate.

But then three-year starting center Dominic Espinosa broke his ankle, and starting tackle Kennedy Estelle was suspended in September, then dismissed. The duo had combined for 47 of Texas' 49 returning career starts, and they combined to start two games in 2014. That left an extremely untested lineup, and the stats collapsed.

There's at least hope. Wickline's second UT line will feature six players with starting experience (63 career starts), two big JUCOs, and a load of redshirt freshmen who trained under him last year.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.74	10	IsoPPP+	137.3	5
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	37.4%	19	Succ. Rt. +	121.6	12
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.1	110	Off. FP+	103.0	30
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.5	5	Redzone S&P+	115.1	22
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.6		ACTUAL	22.0	+2.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	26	8	11	5
RUSHING	61	32	33	30
PASSING	11	3	3	4
Standard Downs		7	9	5
Passing Downs		9	9	9

Q1 Rk	1	1st Down Rk	7
Q2 Rk	12	2nd Down Rk	8
Q3 Rk	23	3rd Down Rk	18
Q4 Rk	95

6. Right where they left off in Louisville

Since Strong and Vance Bedford connected at Florida (when Bedford became the Gators' cornerbacks coach in 2008, serving under defensive coordinator Strong), they have remained connected. A nearly 30-year veteran and mid-'80s Texas graduate, Bedford became Strong's defensive coordinator at Louisville, then returned to his alma mater last season.

There were some ups and downs early in their Louisville tenure, but the Strong-Bedford combination has been productive. Florida's defense ranked fifth in Def. S&P+ in both 2008 and 2009, Louisville's 2013 defense broke through to 11th, and Texas ranked sixth last fall.

Bedford has been a defensive backs coach at the collegiate level since about 1987, so it would stand to reason that pass defense was a Texas strength. The pass rush was solid, the cornerbacks were active, and the safety play was steadier than it had been. Texas ranked third in Passing S&P+, and if there's one thing you want to be good at in the Big 12, it's that.

Whereas the Texas offense needed 15-20 minutes to grow into a half, the defense was lights-out from the start. It faded as the game wore on (first in Q1 S&P+, 95th in Q4), which could had something to do with either depth issues in the back four, a semi-shaky run defense, the often hopeless offense, or some combination. But after molding top-30 talent into nearly a top-10 defense at UL, the coaching staff found what it was looking for in Texas' top-15 talent.

UT must replace some key pieces -- tackle Malcom Brown, corner Quandre Diggs, safety Mykkele Thompson, and play-making linebackers Steve Edmond and Jordan Hicks -- so another top-10 defense might be tough to produce. But offense still occupies the top of the list of Texas concerns; the defense will be strong.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100	3.18	3.05	39.4%	74.0%	17.4%	133.2	7.8%	8.0%
Rank	63	98	42	73	102	95	17	8	52

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Malcom Brown	DT					13	54.0	6.9%	13.0	6.5	0	1	2	0
Cedric Reed	DE					13	53.0	6.8%	9.0	5.5	0	1	1	0
Hassan Ridgeway	NT	6'4, 320	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9146	13	37.0	4.7%	9.5	6.0	0	0	0	0
Caleb Bluiett	FOX	6'3, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8797	12	29.5	3.8%	6.5	3.5	0	2	0	0
Desmond Jackson (2013)	NT	6'0, 305	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9754	13	27.0	3.4%	3.5	2.0	0	0	1	0
Naashon Hughes	FOX	6'4, 230	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8635	13	24.5	3.1%	3.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Paul Boyette Jr.	NT	6'2, 296	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9027	13	20.5	2.6%	3.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Shiro Davis	DE	6'3, 265	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9533	13	16.5	2.1%	4.0	3.5	0	0	0	0
Poona Ford	DT	5'11, 286	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8994	9	6.5	0.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Bryce Cottrell	DE	6'2, 247	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8547	9	6.0	0.8%	0.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Alex Norman	DT	6'4, 293	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8931
Derick Roberson	FOX	6'3, 228	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9675
Quincy Vasser	DE	6'4, 260	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8681
Charles Omenihu	DE	6'5, 231	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8771

7. Shoring up against the run

Despite losing tackle Desmond Jackson for the season to a foot injury, the Texas front four seemed to have plenty of depth. Nine linemen recorded at least six tackles, and six played in all 13 games.

The rotation was large, but it could have been more effective. Both Malcom Brown and massive nose tackle Hassan Ridgeway were better at rushing the passer than stuffing the run, strangely, and Texas struggled to either stuff short-yardage situations or make plays in the backfield against the run.

Brown was still probably Texas' best run defender, and now he's gone. In Ridgeway, a healthy Jackson, Paul Boyette Jr., Poona Ford, and others, UT seems to have a lovely set of tackles, but they'll have to produce, especially if they've got less proven linebackers behind them. The pass rush should be fine, but the run D might still be a hindrance. [Update: Freshman linebacker Cecil Cherry left the program after four practices.]

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Steve Edmond	ILB					13	87.5	11.2%	11.5	5.5	0	2	1	0
Jordan Hicks	OLB					13	85.0	10.9%	11.0	3.5	2	2	0	0
Peter Jinkens	OLB	6'1, 236	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9477	13	19.0	2.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Demarco Cobbs	OLB					13	17.0	2.2%	0.5	0.5	1	0	0	0
Dalton Santos	ILB	6'3, 252	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9171	10	9.5	1.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tevin Jackson	OLB					8	3.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Timothy Cole	ILB	6'1, 239	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9159
Edwin Freeman	OLB	6'1, 238	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9264
Malik Jefferson	ILB	6'3, 217	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9929
Anthony Wheeler	LB	6'2, 219	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9613
Cameron Townsend	LB	6'1, 193	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9023
Cecil Cherry	LB	6'2, 244	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8771

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dylan Haines	SS	6'1, 188	Jr.	NR	NR	13	59.5	7.6%	0	0	4	6	1	1
Quandre Diggs	CB					13	58.5	7.5%	5	2	3	5	1	0
Mykkele Thompson	FS					13	57.5	7.4%	2	0.5	1	2	1	0
Duke Thomas	CB	5'11, 175	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9271	13	41.5	5.3%	0.5	0	3	10	0	0
Jason Hall	FS	6'2, 205	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8438	12	30.0	3.8%	1	1	0	2	0	0
Adrian Colbert	SS	6'1, 206	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9296	13	18.5	2.4%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Bryson Echols	CB	5'10, 181	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9253	13	15.5	2.0%	0	0	0	1	1	0
Antwuan Davis	CB	5'11, 193	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9359	9	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Sheroid Evans	CB	6'0, 186	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9358
Kevin Vaccaro	FS	5'11, 183	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8166
John Bonney	NB	5'10, 184	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9029
Jermaine Roberts Jr.	NB	5'9, 178	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8778
Holton Hill	CB	6'2, 180	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9600
Kris Boyd	CB	5'11, 184	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9531
DeShon Elliott	S	6'0, 204	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9202
Davante Davis	DB	6'3, 191	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8960

8. Production to replace

Losing Diggs and Thompson hurts, but I struggle to worry about Bedford's secondary.

Former walk-on Dylan Haines was an out-of-nowhere revelation, defensing 10 passes and providing a nice last-line-of-defense presence. Texas needed a bit more of a would-die-to-play-for-UT presence in the locker room, and Haines has helped to provide that. Plus, sophomore Jason Hall and junior Adrian Colbert are capable of replacing Thompson's production, and redshirt freshman John Bonney was a spring star at nickel back.

Meanwhile, Duke Thomas enjoyed a nice breakout season opposite Diggs. He could be ready to take over the No. 1 spot at corner, but No. 2 is a mystery. Sheroid Evans is likely out for the season with a spring knee injury, and either Antwuan Davis, Bryson Echols, or a freshman could end up starting. That's a little scary, but there's enough experience to assume another top-15 ranking in Passing S&P+.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
William Russ			66	42.3	3	21	22	65.2%
Michael Davidson			21	42.0	0	8	5	61.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Nick Rose	6'2, 188	Sr.	61	63.8	44	2	72.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Nick Rose	6'2, 188	Sr.	30-32	7-10	70.0%	7-11	63.6%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Armanti Foreman	KR	6'0, 194	So.	11	18.0	0
Marcus Johnson	KR	6'1, 194	Sr.	10	19.1	0
Jaxon Shipley	PR			20	9.3	0
Quandre Diggs	PR			2	-4.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	114
Field Goal Efficiency	89
Punt Return Efficiency	80
Kick Return Efficiency	111
Punt Efficiency	84
Kickoff Efficiency	97
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	64

9. A booming leg, at least

The return game was mostly unproductive. And punt and kick coverage were strangely awful -- despite plenty of athleticism among the backups, Texas squandered long punts and kickoffs and ranked just 84th in punt efficiency and 97th in kickoff efficiency.

Special teams was a disappointing unit, but at least the Longhorns had Nick Rose's strong leg. He deserved better coverage but still boomed nearly three-quarters of his kicks for touchbacks. Meanwhile, he nearly made as high a percentage of his 40-plus field goals as he did shorter ones. He could use a little harnessing, but he's still a strength.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
5-Sep	at Notre Dame	16
12-Sep	Rice	88
19-Sep	California	51
26-Sep	Oklahoma State	43
3-Oct	at TCU	18
10-Oct	vs. Oklahoma	10
24-Oct	Kansas State	33
31-Oct	at Iowa State	86
7-Nov	Kansas	95
14-Nov	at West Virginia	40
26-Nov	Texas Tech	53
5-Dec	at Baylor	14

Five-Year F/+ Rk	14.7% (37)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	15 / 9
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-3 / -4.1
2014 TO Luck/Game	+0.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (7, 5)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	6.9 (-0.9)

10. Road show

The current power of the Big 12 does not align well with Texas' Big 12 schedule, at least in odd-numbered years. Whereas Oklahoma State gets TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, and Kansas State all at home, Texas gets two on the road and a third (OU, obviously) on a neutral site. The 'Horns start at Notre Dame, as well.

This limits upset potential and likely renders Texas a "beats iffy teams, loses to good ones" season again. I imagine the 'Horns improve to seven or eight wins, but the schedule could tamp down expectations. So could iffy quarterback play and just enough defensive regression to offset offensive improvement.

It's not hard to see what Strong is building, at least defensively. Texas might take a step backwards on that side of the ball, but it's only temporary, and his attempts at enforcing discipline should pay off as his squad gets deeper.

The questions for Texas come on offense. We still don't know what kind of identity the offensive staff (which now includes former Oklahoma co-coordinator Jay Norvell) wants, and we still don't know if the Longhorns have a quarterback or an offensive line. And with Texas' track record over the past five seasons, the 'Horns don't get the benefit of the doubt.