Oklahoma football is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Those damned anti-social stats

If Oklahoma doesn't benefit from epic fumbles luck in the last three games of the season, then heading into the 2014 season, we're looking at them as a solid team. They're definitely ranked in the preseason, perhaps in the No. 15-20 range. We're definitely talking about their strong offensive line, their great sack rates, their potentially excellent secondary and maybe their potential-heavy sophomore quarterback.

But we would also be talking about their wholly mediocre run defense and the fact that they must replace virtually every skill position weapon. The limitations they showed in blowout losses to Baylor (understandable) and Texas (not so much) would be the focus of our attention. But in part because of nine fumble recoveries, they're supposed to be a national title contender. It's hard for me to buy that.

-- The big 2014 Oklahoma football guide

If you forget everything you remember about Oklahoma's 2013 and 2014 seasons, the stats tell a pretty boring, straight-forward tale. In 2013, Bob Stoops' Sooners broke a long, steady streak of very good (but rarely elite) play, falling out of the F/+ top 10 for the first time since 2005. They ranked second in 2008 and either sixth or ninth six other times. That's a remarkable string of performance, and it was destined to end.

Tasked with replacing their quarterback, two leading receivers and most of their defensive line and secondary, the Sooners finally blinked.

And in 2014, on paper, they rebounded a bit. Quarterback Trevor Knight's production improved (from 5.7 yards per pass attempt to 6.9), and both the run game and run defense improved dramatically. The pass defense struggled at times, and the offense performed quite a bit worse in the second half than in the first. But overall, after falling to 23rd in F/+ in 2013, OU rebounded to 19th. Not bad.

Of course, it's impossible to forget what you remember about those two seasons.

Lucky or not, it's impossible to forget OU's thrilling run at the end of 2013, in which the Sooners won at Kansas State, beat a peaking Oklahoma State team in Stillwater, then became the first team since 2010 to beat Alabama by double digits. Unlucky or not, it's also hard to forget the way the Sooners managed to stumble at home to Kansas State and Oklahoma State. And it's definitely hard to forget them getting pummeled by Baylor and Clemson.

But wow, did luck play a role, as I wrote for Athlon's Big 12 preview this year.

In 2013, Oklahoma recovered 68 percent of all fumbles. In 2014, the Sooners recovered 39 percent. In 2013, they went 8–0 in games decided by 15 or fewer points. In 2014, they lost three games by eight combined points. The dispiriting losses to Baylor (48–14 in Norman) and Clemson (40–6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl) proved that the Sooners were not an elite team, but 2013’s late-season luck set an unfair bar. And when Oklahoma failed to meet that bar, the demands for change set in.

In terms of turnovers luck, the Sooners went from plus-2.7 points per game to minus-4.6, a full touchdown's swing. You think that might make a difference in a competitive conference?

Stoops made changes to his coaching staff this offseason, and that was at least partially because of OU's "disappointing" 2014 campaign. But you could justify them regardless. After years of turning top-15 recruiting into top-10 performances, the balance swung the last two seasons. Stoops' Sooners underachieved compared to their talent level, and when that happens, change might not be a bad thing for some coaches.

But this was some significant change. Stoops dumped offensive co-coordinators Jay Norvell and Josh Heupel in favor of ECU offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley and Washington State receivers coach Dennis Simmons. Longtime defensive backs coach Bobby Jack Wright retired, and Stoops replaced him with Notre Dame DBs coach Kerry Cooks. Stoops moved defensive line coach Jerry Montgomery to defensive co-coordinator, but then Montgomery jumped to an NFL job, and Stoops brought in Stanford's Diron Reynolds.

The moves make sense on paper, but the amount of change could certainly backfire; the staff could struggle to gel, the defense could regress and the offense could find it doesn't quite have the right air raid personnel. But OU isn't standing still. The Sooners now return three quarterbacks with Big 12 experience, one of the best running backs in the country, one of the best wideouts in the country and most of a speedy defense. The new coaching staff could press just enough new buttons to make OU an immediate Big 12 contender, or, instead of slowly crumbling, Bob Stoops' house could fall down around him quickly. If forced to make a prediction, I lean former.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 19
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Louisiana Tech	35	48-16	W	100%	61.9	100%
6-Sep	at Tulsa	117	52-7	W	97%	42.7	100%
13-Sep	Tennessee	24	34-10	W	97%	42.4	100%
20-Sep	at West Virginia	40	45-33	W	75%	15.5	75%
4-Oct	at TCU	6	33-37	L	82%	21.8	42%
11-Oct	vs. Texas	53	31-26	W	59%	5.4	44%
18-Oct	Kansas State	26	30-31	L	86%	25.3	83%
1-Nov	at Iowa State	92	59-14	W	95%	37.5	100%
8-Nov	Baylor	10	14-48	L	49%	-0.4	3%
15-Nov	at Texas Tech	82	42-30	W	80%	19.3	93%
22-Nov	Kansas	99	44-7	W	99%	51.7	100%
6-Dec	Oklahoma State	75	35-38	L	39%	-6.2	22%
29-Dec	vs. Clemson	14	6-40	L	23%	-17.0	0%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	39.1	14	21.3	21
Points Per Game	36.4	21	25.9	57

2. Peaking early

In some ways, ratings like S&P+ or F/+ simply ask, how frequently were you good? If you're struggling to wrap your head around how Oklahoma could end up grading out better in 2014 than in 2013, the early part of last season gives you a lot of the answers. We didn't realize how good Louisiana Tech and Tennessee would end up being, but OU handled these two teams by a combined 82-26 margin. And because we didn't yet realize how good TCU was, the Sooners' tossup loss in Fort Worth felt like an upset.

OU was nearly perfect for the first three games of the year, then was still quite good for the next five. But after playing four of their five best games in the first eight weeks, they played three of their five worst in the last five.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 8 games): 86 percent (~top 20 | record: 6-2)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 5 games): 58 percent (~top 55 | record: 2-3)

Overrated or underrated, lucky or unlucky, there's no question that the season finished with a thud. After the crazy, disappointing finish against Oklahoma State, OU got drubbed by Clemson. And while the defense was mostly fine against Clemson -- after a 65-yard screen pass on the first play of the game, the Tigers averaged just 4.1 yards per play -- the offense had nothing to offer against the best defense it had faced all year. Hence the staff changes.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.93	28	IsoPPP+	134.8	11
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	48.1%	15	Succ. Rt. +	126.9	6
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.1	33	Def. FP+	107.1	7
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.9	22	Redzone S&P+	125.7	10
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.8		ACTUAL	24	+7.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	24	6	4	11
RUSHING	11	4	6	5
PASSING	85	17	5	26
Standard Downs		4	4	8
Passing Downs		17	11	21

Q1 Rk	9	1st Down Rk	26
Q2 Rk	5	2nd Down Rk	27
Q3 Rk	31	3rd Down Rk	6
Q4 Rk	37

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Trevor Knight	6'1, 206	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9008	179	316	2300	14	12	56.6%	6	1.9%	6.9
Cody Thomas	6'4, 211	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9499	30	66	342	2	4	45.5%	2	2.9%	5.0
Baker Mayfield (Texas Tech)	6'2, 214	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8385	218	340	2315	12	9	64.1%	24	6.6%	5.9

3. QB A vs. QB B

[Update: Baker Mayfield won the starting job over Knight and Thomas.]

Baker Mayfield made waves in 2013. First, he chose to walk on at Texas Tech, also forgoing offers from Washington State, Rice and others. Then, he won the starting job in Lubbock from day one. Then, after losing his job, he announced he was transferring. Then, he ended up at Oklahoma despite the fact that he would lose a year of eligibility by transferring within the Big 12.

Mayfield keeps you on your toes. He might also win the OU starting job from his first day of eligibility. It's obviously pretty easy to assume that when you consider that the new offensive hires might move the Sooners toward the type of air raid system Mayfield initially thrived in at Tech.

Most versions of the air raid are geared first around efficiency and safe throws. Mayfield brings some issues to the table, but he's at least better at that than either of OU's experienced returnees, Trevor Knight or Cody Thomas.

• Completion Rate: Mayfield 64 percent (in 2013), Knight 57 percent, Thomas 46 percent
• Yards Per Completion: Knight 12.8, Thomas 11.4, Mayfield 10.6
• Sack Rate: Knight 1.9 percent, Thomas 2.9 percent, Mayfield 6.6 percent
• Interception Rate: Mayfield 2.6 percent, Knight 3.8 percent, Thomas 6.1 percent

Neither of these three players seized the starting job this spring, so the battle will continue into fall camp. Considering Thomas averaged just 5.0 yards per pass attempt, while taking most of his attempts against Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas and Oklahoma State (only one of which were particularly impressive in pass defense), this feels like a two-man race.

Knight is perhaps unfairly maligned -- he was fine through the first eight games (60 percent completion rate, 13.7 yards per completion, 3.2 percent INT rate) but stunk against Baylor and Clemson (45 percent, 8.6 per completion, 6.3 percent INT) and missed three games to injury in between. He is not the Heisman candidate he was made out to be after the 2014 Sugar Bowl, but he could be just fine. If he's the starter.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Samaje Perine	RB	5'11, 237	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9033	263	1713	21	6.5	7.2	41.1%	2	2
Alex Ross	RB	6'1, 220	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9636	88	595	4	6.8	10.3	35.2%	0	0
Keith Ford	RB					71	392	5	5.5	4.9	43.7%	3	3
Trevor Knight	QB	6'1, 206	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9008	62	407	5	6.6	4.4	61.3%	2	1
Cody Thomas	QB	6'4, 211	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9499	21	145	1	6.9	5.0	66.7%	1	0
David Smith	RB					10	76	1	7.6	3.4	70.0%	0	0
Sterling Shepard	WR	5'10, 191	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9541	8	41	0	5.1	9.2	37.5%	0	0
Daniel Brooks	RB	5'8, 182	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8385	6	26	0	4.3	7.5	16.7%	0	0
Aaron Ripkowski	FB					6	13	3	2.2	0.5	16.7%	0	0
Michiah Quick	WR	6'0, 186	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9703	4	6	0	1.5	2.3	50.0%	0	0
Joe Mixon	RB	6'2, 217	RSFr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9898
Rodney Anderson	RB	6'1, 205	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9296

4. A lot of carries to go around

Heading into 2014, Samaje Perine wasn't even considered the best freshman running back on his team. Blue-chipper Joe Mixon got all the hype, while Perine, 'merely' a four-star recruit, hovered in the background. But when Mixon was suspended for the season after a violent altercation with a woman at a Norman Pickleman's, incident-free Perine stepped into the spotlight and thrived.

Perine's early-season output was up and down. After rushing 34 times for 242 yards against West Virginia, he rushed 67 times for just 238 yards in the next three games. But in the last four games of the year, he was in a different orbit. He averaged 27 carries for 231 yards in those games, posting an NCAA-record 427 yards against a not-awful Kansas defense and even managing 134 yards in 23 carries against Clemson's excellent defense.

Of the 26 power-conference backs with at least 200 carries in 2014, Perine was one of only five to combine at least a 40 percent opportunity rate (carries that gained at least five yards) with an average of at least seven highlight yards (open-field yards) per opportunity. The rest of that list is a who's-who of great college running backs: Indiana's Tevin Coleman, Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon, Georgia's Nick Chubb and Miami's Duke Johnson.

Perine was more explosive than Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah and more efficient than Minnesota's David Cobb. He was incredible. And now Lincoln Riley has to figure out how to feed Perine while also getting explosive junior Alex Ross and, yes, Mixon touches as well.

Of course, the primary trait of the air raid is high-volume passing. Riley will almost certainly tweak that to give Perine his touches, but the receiving corps is still important, and outside of Sterling Shepard, it's hard to know what OU's got.

Shepard is awesome. He had the best catch rate among OU wideouts and still averaged nearly seven more yards per catch than anybody else. But you need more than one guy. Durron Neal and Michiah Quick were underwhelming (though Quick was just a freshman), and no other returning wideout had more than three catches. There are plenty of former star recruits in the mix here, but opportunity is available for one of two exciting newcomers: four-star JUCO DeDe Westbrook and speedy freshman John Humphrey. [Update: The Sooners also added three-star JUCO transfer and former USF commit Jarvis Baxter as a late walk-on.]

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Sterling Shepard	WR	5'10, 191	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9541	80	51	970	63.8%	22.7%	62.5%	12.1	353	11.8	149.6
Durron Neal	WR	5'11, 195	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9618	80	42	513	52.5%	22.7%	53.8%	6.4	-16	6.5	79.1
Michiah Quick	WR	6'0, 186	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9703	43	25	237	58.1%	12.2%	48.8%	5.5	-71	5.1	36.5
K.J. Young	WR					36	20	248	55.6%	10.2%	44.4%	6.9	-1	7.0	38.3
Blake Bell	TE					30	16	214	53.3%	8.5%	63.3%	7.1	13	7.3	33.0
Samaje Perine	RB	5'11, 237	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9033	16	15	108	93.8%	4.5%	25.0%	6.8	-62	6.6	16.7
Keith Ford	RB					13	11	140	84.6%	3.7%	46.2%	10.8	13	10.7	21.6
Alex Ross	RB	6'1, 220	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9636	13	10	65	76.9%	3.7%	53.8%	5.0	-52	5.1	10.0
Dimitri Flowers	FB	6'1, 242	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8321	11	9	92	81.8%	3.1%	72.7%	8.4	-12	7.8	14.2
Aaron Ripkowski	FB					9	7	38	77.8%	2.6%	66.7%	4.2	-44	4.3	5.9
Jordan Smallwood	WR	6'2, 208	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8631	8	3	21	37.5%	2.3%	50.0%	2.6	-20	2.7	3.2
Jeffery Mead	WR	6'6, 189	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8906	4	0	0	0.0%	1.1%	25.0%	0.0	-6	0.0	0.0
Austin Bennett	WR	6'0, 172	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8618	3	1	19	33.3%	0.9%	33.3%	6.3	5	4.0	2.9
Grant Bothun	WR	5'11, 189	Sr.	NR	NR	2	0	0	0.0%	0.6%	50.0%	0.0	-3	0.0	0.0
Mark Andrews	WR	6'6, 247	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9387
Dallis Todd	WR	6'5, 201	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9127
DeDe Westbrook	WR	6'1, 167	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9025
John Humphrey	WR	6'0, 160	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8812

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	120.6	3.32	3.29	44.2%	67.9%	16.2%	236.6	3.6%	1.6%
Rank	10	17	62	19	61	26	3	37	1

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Daryl Williams	RT					37	2014 1st All-Big 12
Tyrus Thompson	LT					29	2014 1st All-Big 12
Adam Shead	LG					39	2014 2nd All-Big 12
Tyler Evans	RG					32
Ty Darlington	C	6'2, 299	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9190	14
Nila Kasitati	RG	6'4, 315	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8504	12
Dionte Savage	RG					8
Derek Farniok	RT	6'9, 345	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	NR	1
Josiah St. John	LT	6'6, 309	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8793	0
Christian Daimler	RT	6'7, 306	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8241	0
Jonathan Alvarez	RG	6'3, 310	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7785	0
Kenyon Frison	OT	6'6, 289	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8834
Alex Dalton	C	6'4, 297	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8775
Orlando Brown	OT	6'8, 355	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8731
Jamal Danley	OG	6'5, 301	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8686
Quinn Mittermeier	OT	6'5, 285	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8689

5. A fantastic line rebuilds

The stars have almost aligned for the offense. You've got two intriguing quarterbacks, a phenomenal running back and No. 1 receiver and plenty of athletic other skill position candidates. This could be a perfect time for a new coordinator to step in and mold this unit into something destructive.

That could obviously happen, of course. But Riley also inherits a line that must replace five players who had combined for more than 11 seasons worth of starts (145), including three 2014 all-Big 12 guys.

In Ty Darlington, Nila Kasitati and Derek Farniok, OU does have three seniors with starting experience in the rotation, and the Sooners added two JUCOs to the mix, as well. So there won't exactly be five freshmen in the starting lineup. But the line was outstanding last year and must replace most of the reasons why. One has to assume a drop-off, even in Riley's sack-rate-friendly system. [Update: Tackle Kenyon Frison has been suspended indefinitely for an unspecified violation of team rules.]

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.88	83	IsoPPP+	112.6	35
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	37.6%	22	Succ. Rt. +	114.7	22
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.5	61	Off. FP+	104.0	25
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.6	89	Redzone S&P+	98.5	70
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.6		ACTUAL	19.0	-4.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	52	27	23	35
RUSHING	8	19	14	35
PASSING	120	32	38	39
Standard Downs		33	21	45
Passing Downs		19	30	24

Q1 Rk	12	1st Down Rk	24
Q2 Rk	39	2nd Down Rk	48
Q3 Rk	50	3rd Down Rk	13
Q4 Rk	40

6. Those damned anti-social stats, part 2

There is no football stat more worthless than passing yards allowed per game. There is far too much context to make it worthwhile. If you're leading games most of the time, opponents are going to pass far more than they run. And if you're in a spread-happy conference like the Big 12, you're simply going to allow passing yards, even if you're good at defending the pass.

OU's pass defense wasn't amazing in 2014. The Sooners fell from 21st to 32nd in Passing S&P+, and most of their raw stats regressed a bit -- opponents' completion rates rose from 55 percent to 56.3, their yards per completion improved from 12.3 to 12.5 and their interception rate fell from 3.9 percent to 2.4 percent.

It was a little bit easier to pass on OU, yes. But the major story line -- 120th in passing yards per game!!!!!! -- oversold it by a factor of about 10. OU struggled with good passing attacks (WVU, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas Tech), but a lot of teams did. The other nine opponents on the schedule completed just 53 percent of their passes.

The biggest difference between 2013 and 2014: opponents threw 409 passes in 2013 and 510 in 2014. You think eight more passes per game might make a bit of a yardage difference?

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	116.4	2.60	2.11	31.7%	69.4%	22.2%	112.2	5.1%	8.3%
Rank	16	25	3	9	78	28	35	50	48

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Chuka Ndulue	DE					13	36.0	5.0%	5.0	3.5	0	2	0	0
Jordan Phillips	DT					13	29.0	4.0%	7.0	2.0	0	1	0	1
Charles Tapper	DE	6'4, 283	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8895	13	25.0	3.5%	7.5	3.0	0	2	1	0
Matt Dimon	DE	6'2, 274	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8984	8	8.0	1.1%	1.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Charles Walker	DT	6'2, 299	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8656	8	7.0	1.0%	1.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Matthew Romar	DT	6'0, 294	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8585	12	7.0	1.0%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Wade	DE	6'4, 305	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9382	6	7.0	1.0%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Torrea Peterson	DE				NR	8	6.5	0.9%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
D.J. Ward	DE	6'2, 251	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9415	6	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Isaac Ijalana	DE	6'4, 247	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8363
Dwayne Orso	DE	6'6, 294	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8093
Neville Gallimore	DT	6'3, 303	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9615
Austin Roberts	DE	6'5, 265	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8681
Ricky DeBerry	DE	6'2, 240	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9575
Marquise Overton	DT	6'1, 300	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9170
Gabriel Campbell	DE	6'6, 260	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8700

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dominique Alexander	ILB	6'0, 229	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8361	13	77.5	10.8%	6.0	1.5	0	0	1	0
Jordan Evans	ILB	6'3, 242	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8286	13	74.5	10.4%	6.5	0.0	1	3	2	0
Frank Shannon (2013)	ILB	6'1, 238	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8919	13	73.5	11.4%	7.0	2.0	1	0	1	0
Eric Striker	OLB	6'0, 223	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8879	13	56.5	7.9%	17.0	9.0	0	5	0	1
Geneo Grissom	OLB					10	33.0	4.6%	6.5	3.5	1	4	2	0
Devante Bond	OLB	6'1, 236	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8403	12	24.0	3.3%	4.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Caleb Gastelum	ILB					13	16.0	2.2%	2.0	1.0	1	1	0	0
Aaron Franklin	ILB					11	11.0	1.5%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo	OLB	6'1, 237	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8659	11	6.0	0.8%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
P.L. Lindley	OLB	6'2, 267	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8625	10	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Londell Taylor	LB					13	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Curtis Bolton	LB	6'2, 229	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8650
Tay Evans	LB	6'2, 235	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8504
Arthur McGinnis	LB	6'2, 225	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8686

7. A strong run defense, considering

OU basically played three linemen in 2014. Chuka Ndulue, Jordan Phillips and Charles Tapper combined for a good amount of playmaking for a three-man line: 19.5 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks, five breakups. They freed up three exciting linebackers to make plays ... and they played most of 60 minutes every game. No backup played in all 13 games (only one played in more than eight), and none made more than eight tackles.

When you play with minimal depth, you risk fading in the second half of games and eventually giving up big rushing numbers. But while OU's defensive averages were best in the first quarter, the Sooners did still manage to rank 19th in Rushing S&P+. Part of that might have had to do with playing pass-happy opponents, but opponents were particularly pass-happy, in part, because the run D was so good.

Looking at the returnees above, you could spin it as "Oklahoma returns five of its top seven linemen!" if you want, but really, the Sooners lose 2-of-3. Charles Tapper's return is exciting, but OU is drastically unproven at tackle, where some combination of sophomores Charles Walker and Matthew Romar, JUCO transfer Neville Gallimore and perhaps freshmen Dwayne Orso and Marquise Overton will take over.

If the line holds up, the linebackers could dominate. Last year's top three return, including Eric Striker, one of the nation's best attackers. Plus, Frank Shannon is back in the fold after missing 2014 with suspension. All the line has to be is decent, and the linebackers will swarm to the ball.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ahmad Thomas	FS	6'0, 218	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8668	13	61.0	8.5%	0.5	0	1	2	0	0
Quentin Hayes	SS					12	46.0	6.4%	5	3	1	4	2	0
Zack Sanchez	CB	5'11, 175	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8733	13	37.0	5.2%	1	0	6	8	0	0
Julian Wilson	CB					11	35.5	5.0%	0	0	1	7	0	0
Jordan Thomas	CB	6'1, 194	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8706	13	29.5	4.1%	0	0	0	5	0	0
Steven Parker	NB	6'1, 201	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9466	13	25.5	3.6%	2	1	0	6	0	0
Hatari Byrd	SS	6'1, 206	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9281	13	13.5	1.9%	0	0	0	3	1	0
Stanvon Taylor	CB	5'10, 174	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9366	13	6.5	0.9%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Dakota Austin	CB	5'11, 160	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8322	5	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Green	CB	6'1, 181	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8585
William Johnson	CB	6'0, 179	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8687
Will Sunderland	S	6'2, 186	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9290
Kahlil Haughton	S	6'1, 178	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8970
Prentice McKinney	S	6'2, 180	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8752
P.J. Mbanasor	CB	6'1, 180	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9390

8. Depth could be an issue in the back

Again, the pass defense wasn't amazing last year, but it was still pretty good, especially before corner Julian Wilson began to struggle with injury. Wilson's gone, but in Ahmad Thomas and Zack Sanchez, the Sooners have two solid veterans (Sanchez is more than solid), and in Jordan Thomas and Steven Parker, they have two playmakers who held their own as freshmen in 2014. Sanchez and Thomas should be two of the more active corners in the league.

As with the line, however, injuries could quickly expose depth problems in the back. The top five are good, but after that you're looking at career reserves (Stanvon Taylor, Dakota Austin) and a host of newcomers. They're well-touted newcomers, yes, but they're completely unproven.

Regardless, the starting five will likely be strong, and saying "injuries could cause problems" is applicable to almost every team in the country.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Jed Barnett			66	41.9	6	19	13	48.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Nick Hodgson	6'2, 198	Sr.	86	64.0	58	2	67.4%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Michael Hunnicutt			60-62	10-13	76.9%	3-5	60.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Alex Ross	KR	6'1, 220	Jr.	23	31.2	2
Durron Neal	KR	5'11, 195	Sr.	7	9.9	0
Sterling Shepard	PR	5'10, 191	Sr.	11	6.6	0
Zack Sanchez	PR	5'11, 175	Jr.	2	10.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	23
Field Goal Efficiency	58
Punt Return Efficiency	18
Kick Return Efficiency	4
Punt Efficiency	102
Kickoff Efficiency	61
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	94

9. Wanted: steadier legs (and coverage)

Poor Michael Hunnicutt. He made 24-of-27 field goals in 2013 and 12-of-14 in 2014, sans the KSU and OSU games. But he missed 3-of-4 against KSU and OSU and had a PAT blocked, and OU lost those games by a combined four points. That's how you become a very good kicker who is loathed by the fan base.

Hunnicutt's untimely misses aside, legs were a bit of an issue. Or at least, coverage was. Opponents averaged 10.7 yards per punt return (104th in FBS) and 21.3 yards per kick return (71st), which did quite a bit of damage to OU's field position efforts. Despite a strong run game, a good run defense and excellent returns, OU ranked only 38th in field position margin. With Hunnicutt and punter Jed Barnett gone, there will be some fresh blood here, for better or worse. We'll see if coverage improves.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
5-Sep	Akron	112
12-Sep	at Tennessee	20
19-Sep	Tulsa	106
3-Oct	West Virginia	40
10-Oct	vs. Texas	36
17-Oct	at Kansas State	33
24-Oct	Texas Tech	53
31-Oct	at Kansas	95
7-Nov	Iowa State	86
14-Nov	at Baylor	14
21-Nov	TCU	18
28-Nov	at Oklahoma State	43

Five-Year F/+ Rk	41.0% (6)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	16 / 12
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-5 / 6.9
2014 TO Luck/Game	-4.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (7, 6)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	8.6 (-0.6)

10. There are three Big 12 contenders

I've seen OU listed as a Big 12 dark horse quite a bit in recent months, but I can't buy it. A team that has ranked in the F/+ top 25 for nine consecutive years isn't a dark horse for anything. Both Baylor and TCU return quite a few of the stars that made them standout teams last year, but Oklahoma has as much star power as anybody in the league: Samaje Perine, Sterling Shepard, Zack Sanchez, Eric Striker, Frank Shannon, Charles Tapper, Ty Darlington.

The Sooners have clear issues to rectify. They have to find a quarterback, and they need drastic changes in the assistant coaching staff to take hold sooner than later. If one of the three Big 12 contenders bombs, it will almost certainly be OU. But make no mistake: the Sooners are contenders. They weren't nearly as bad in 2014 as people seem to want to believe, and while they do get Baylor on the road, TCU (which barely beat OU last year in Fort Worth) must visit Norman.

The trip to Knoxville on Sept. 12 will tell us a lot. Tennessee could be a legitimate top-20 team -- and if you don't believe the recurring "This year's the year! No? Well ... THIS year's the year!" Vols hype, believe the numbers, which think they will be stout -- and should probably be expected to beat a fellow top-20 team at home. If the Sooners win that game, they're perhaps Big 12 co-favorites. If they lose a tight contest, they're likely still contenders.

And if they get blown out, forget I said any of this.