Nick Saban's Alabama is evolving, but it's still Alabama

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1. Evolution is healthy

It sure doesn't take much to cause an existential crisis in Tuscaloosa.

For three consecutive years, Alabama has suffered what we've regarded as momentous, symbolic losses. In 2012, it was a 29-24 defeat at the hands of Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M. In 2013, it was the Kick Six to Auburn. In 2014, it was the 42-35 national semifinal to Ohio State.

In each of these instances, incredible offenses were able to damage what has frequently been an indomitable Nick Saban defense. Not a ton of damage; in each loss, the victor still managed fewer yards per play than its season average, and in only one of the three was an offense able to score even 30 points.

In fact, each loss was defined at least as much by Alabama's offensive failure. The Ohio State loss was addled by three second-half interceptions, two in Buckeye territory. The Auburn loss included four missed Tide field goal attempts and a fourth-down failure inside the Auburn 15. The A&M loss featured a lost fumble at the A&M 34 and a final-minutes interception in the end zone.

Because of field position dominance (Ohio State) and the creation of far more scoring opportunities (Auburn), two of these three were unlikely, from a statistical standpoint.

But when you rarely lose -- and Alabama has lost more than twice in a season once since 2007 -- we're going to milk all we can from the data points. Each of these three teams ran dominant versions of the spread offense and has used tempo to its advantage. For that matter, the other teams to most recently beat the Tide (2014 Ole Miss, 2013 Oklahoma) do, too. And two of these (A&M in 2013 and Auburn in 2014) found more offensive success in the rematches, even as their own defenses were getting washed out.

So the symbolism is set. Modern offense is overtaking Saban's defenses. And it's in Saban's head. He let new offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin experiment with tempo. He's been recruiting dual-threat quarterbacks. He's ... *gasp* ... he's using play cards this year!

We laugh about Alabama's "failures" because of the bar Saban has set and the way he carries himself. He can be seen grousing on the sidelines when his defense suffers a breakdown in a blowout win. He would rather be able to communicate with his defenses between each play. He would rather get exotic in key situations instead of going with the simplest calls. And even after he found success with tempo, he still hated it.

College football in 2015 is not the version he would prefer. But this overshadows two key points:

1. His defense is still awesome. Only four times in three years have the Tide allowed an opponent more yards per play than its full-season average, and only twice in the last seven seasons have they ranked worse than third in Def. S&P+ (14th in 2010, sixth in 2013). They were third last season, behind Ole Miss and Clemson, neither of which also had a top-30 offense (Bama was fifth).
2. He is making changes. So often, coaches who find success on one side of the ball struggle to evolve when the game adapts. But Saban is adapting right back. He might not like having to change, but he's doing what it takes.

This May, I went to Germany to write the about most adaptable, consistently dominant team in sports: Bayern Munich. Part of their strength has come from being able to sense changes and absorb them. Despite dry spells, Alabama is the closest thing to Bayern in college football.

Bear Bryant adopted the emerging wishbone and experienced a second run of success in Tuscaloosa that exceeded his first. And now Saban is doing the same to some degree. He doesn't have to like it, but it will likely assure that he continues to win.

We may lean toward Auburn or some other West team because we're tired of the Tide, but that's our own fault. Year to year, Alabama is the surest bet in college football.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 12-2 | Adj. Record: 14-0 | Final F/+ Rk: 2
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	vs. West Virginia	40	33-23	W	86%	25.0	91%
6-Sep	Florida Atlantic	100	41-0	W	99%	59.9	100%
13-Sep	Southern Miss	110	52-12	W	97%	45.7	100%
20-Sep	Florida	32	42-21	W	98%	47.5	100%
4-Oct	at Ole Miss	5	17-23	L	51%	0.7	10%
11-Oct	at Arkansas	9	14-13	W	90%	29.3	84%
18-Oct	Texas A&M	42	59-0	W	100%	72.8	100%
25-Oct	at Tennessee	24	34-20	W	94%	36.3	98%
8-Nov	at LSU	22	20-13	W	84%	23.4	80%
15-Nov	Mississippi State	13	25-20	W	92%	32.7	87%
22-Nov	Western Carolina	N/A	48-14	W	85%	24.5	100%
29-Nov	Auburn	7	55-44	W	94%	36.5	97%
6-Dec	vs. Missouri	20	42-13	W	98%	47.3	100%
1-Jan	vs. Ohio State	1	35-42	L	93%	35.4	82%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	43.1	5	14.8	3
Points Per Game	36.9	16	18.4	6

2. High floors

The best teams are the ones that not only play the most high-caliber ball but suffer the fewest lapses.

We can pretend suffering one-possession losses to two awesome teams (Ole Miss was the best in the country for the first two months, then Ohio State took the baton), both away from Tuscaloosa, is some serious character flaw. But Ole Miss in October and Ohio State in January were just about the only teams capable of taking down the Tide.

No team played at a more consistently high level than Alabama from the start of 2014 to the end. This manifested itself in a couple ways:

A. The highest floor. 127 of 128 FBS teams played at least one game below the 50th percentile. The Tide's loss to Ole Miss wasn't amazing, but it was the best worst game in the country. They played that game at the 51st percentile; Georgia Tech (49th), Ohio State (49th), and Auburn (46th) were also decent at their worst.

B. Minimal variance. In terms of week-to-week percentiles, Alabama's variance was the lowest in the country, followed by UNLV (the bad kind of low variance), Ohio State (good), New Mexico State (bad), Florida State (good), Tulsa (bad), and Idaho (bad). You could beat or stay close to Alabama, but you had to play at an incredibly high level to do so.

Perhaps we see more variance this year because of the youth on offense. Then again, the offensive line and defense have plenty of experience, so maybe not.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.89	41	IsoPPP+	140.9	5
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	50.2%	4	Succ. Rt. +	133.5	2
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	26.9	8	Def. FP+	107.1	7
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.0	20	Redzone S&P+	134.1	3
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.3		ACTUAL	22	+3.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	18	4	3	5
RUSHING	37	11	4	18
PASSING	29	3	2	5
Standard Downs		3	2	7
Passing Downs		7	4	16

Q1 Rk	5	1st Down Rk	3
Q2 Rk	4	2nd Down Rk	5
Q3 Rk	5	3rd Down Rk	14
Q4 Rk	8

3. What you call vs. who you call it for

Lane Kiffin runs a bell cow offense. His tactics have evolved through the years, but his point of view has been simple: figure out who your best skill guys are and get the ball to them as much as they can stand. When you have the talent he recruited at USC and inherited at Alabama, that tends to work.

It can result in one hell of a workload, however. At USC in 2012, receivers Robert Woods and Marqise Lee accounted for two-thirds of the Trojans' pass targets; Lee alone was targeted 13 per game.

We saw the same effects in Kiffin's first year in Tuscaloosa. He determined the three who should be touching the ball were Amari Cooper, T.J. Yeldon, and Derrick Henry. Cooper was targeted with 39.8 percent of Alabama's passes (the second-highest target rate in the country behind Pitt's Tyler Boyd), while Yeldon and Henry combined for 26 carries per game. No running back carried more than 36 times, and only one other receiver (DeAndrew White) was targeted more than 31 times.

When you recruit like Alabama, this approach will usually pay off. Cooper averaged a robust 10 yards per target, and Yeldon and Henry helped Alabama rank fourth in Rushing Success Rate+ (efficiency). This can cause problems, however, on the rare occasion that teams figure out how to slow the bell cows down.

In Alabama's five closest games (the losses to Ole Miss and Ohio State and one-possession wins over Arkansas, LSU, and Mississippi State), Yeldon and Henry combined to average 4.3 or fewer yards per carry four times, and Cooper averaged 7.3 or fewer yards per target four times. These defenses were able to employ Xs and Os to stop Bama's Jimmies and Joes, and Bama was slow to come up with a Plan B despite countless former blue-chippers.

Granted, in the other nine, Yeldon/Henry averaged 6 yards per carry and Cooper 11.8 yards per target.

And now two of the three are gone. Henry returns and, if healthy, will likely take on a monstrous load. That's probably a good thing; two years into his career, the 242-pound Henry has averaged 6.6 yards per carry with 14 touchdowns, mostly as a backup. He's awesome.

But where else will Kiffin turn without last year's top three wideouts? It's hard to worry about running back, with senior Kenyan Drake and the latest five-star freshmen (Bo Scarbrough, Damien Harris) in line, but we know Kiffin will want to pass. Is tantalizing tight end O.J. Howard ready for a star turn after two spotty years? Is junior Chris Black (who did quite a bit with minimal touches last season) ready to become a go-to guy despite ankle issues in fall camp? Who else might command touches -- sophomores ArDarius Stewart, Cam Sims, and Robert Foster? Freshmen Derek Kief and Calvin Ridley?

And, of course, does Kiffin have a reliable quarterback?

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2015 Year

Rivals

247 Comp.

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Blake Sims

252

391

3487

28

10

64.5%

13

3.2%

8.4

Jake Coker

6'5, 232

Sr.

3 stars (5.7)

0.8618

38

59

403

4

0

64.4%

3

4.8%

6.2

Alec Morris

6'3, 233

Jr.

3 stars (5.6)

0.8701

Cooper Bateman

6'3, 220

So.

4 stars (5.8)

0.9623

David Cornwell

6'5, 221

RSFr.

4 stars (5.9)

0.9624

Blake Barnett

6'5, 200

Fr.

4 stars (6.0)

0.9896

4. Options

If you don't have an obvious successor, you have to hope for a high number of options. Alabama does have the latter: FSU transfer Jake Coker, four-star sophomore Cooper Bateman, four-star redshirt freshman David Cornwell, four-star true freshman Blake Barnett.

A year ago, we assumed Coker would win the battle to succeed AJ McCarron. Blake Sims overtook him and acquitted himself well, throwing for nearly 3,500 yards and rushing for nearly 500 (sans sacks). Most offseason story lines labeled Coker as the favorite this year, too, but with three weeks til the first game, he still has yet to take the job. In fact, ESPN's Travis Haney is predicting Cornwell will overtake him.

Whoever wins won't inherit the toughest job in the country. He'll be sticking the ball into the belly of Henry, Drake, etc., probably 30 or so times per game. He'll have Black, Oregon State transfer Richard Mullaney, and a host of stud athletes lined up wide. He'll have Howard. And he'll throw quite a few easy passes to the perimeter; stretching the defense from sideline to sideline is a staple of Kiffin's.

Still, the key to Alabama's title hopes could be the quarterback's ability to avoid untimely mistakes. Sims threw only 10 interceptions in 14 games, but four came in Bama's two losses. Playing the odds, the Bama passing game will probably be fine, but we don't know until we see it.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
T.J. Yeldon	RB					194	979	11	5.0	3.5	45.9%	2	1
Derrick Henry	RB	6'3, 242	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9928	172	990	11	5.8	4.6	46.5%	1	1
Blake Sims	QB					70	438	7	6.3	4.6	60.0%	5	3
Tyren Jones	RB					36	224	2	6.2	3.8	58.3%	1	1
Altee Tenpenny	RB					26	136	0	5.2	3.2	46.2%	0	0
Kenyan Drake	RB	6'1, 210	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9427	22	112	4	5.1	4.3	40.9%	1	1
Jalston Fowler	FB					12	69	0	5.8	4.7	41.7%	1	1
Amari Cooper	WR					5	23	0	4.6	6.8	60.0%	0	0
Jake Coker	QB	6'5, 232	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8618	4	33	0	8.3	2.6	100.0%	0	0
Derrick Gore	RB	5'11, 210	So.	NR	NR
Bo Scarbrough	RB	6'2, 240	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9916
Damien Harris	RB	5'11, 205	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9859

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Amari Cooper	WR-X					173	124	1727	71.7%	39.8%	67.6%	10.0	257	9.9	292.5
DeAndrew White	WR-Z					66	40	504	60.6%	15.2%	68.2%	7.6	15	8.1	85.4
Richard Mullaney (Oregon State)	WR	6'3, 208	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8513	36	18	216	50.0%	7.8%	63.9%	6.0	-13	6.0	25.4
Christion Jones	WR-H					31	19	264	61.3%	7.1%	64.5%	8.5	32	8.1	44.7
O.J. Howard	TE	6'6, 242	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9909	26	17	260	65.4%	6.0%	53.8%	10.0	55	10.0	44.0
T.J. Yeldon	RB					24	15	180	62.5%	5.5%	54.2%	7.5	-2	7.3	30.5
Chris Black	WR-H	6'0, 192	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9768	18	15	188	83.3%	4.1%	72.2%	10.4	15	11.2	31.8
Jalston Fowler	FB					18	11	129	61.1%	4.1%	88.9%	7.2	-5	6.2	21.9
ArDarius Stewart	WR-X	6'1, 204	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9594	17	12	149	70.6%	3.9%	52.9%	8.8	6	9.1	25.2
Cam Sims	WR-X	6'5, 209	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9610	13	7	62	53.8%	3.0%	69.2%	4.8	-26	4.0	10.5
Robert Foster	WR-Z	6'2, 194	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9892	10	6	44	60.0%	2.3%	60.0%	4.4	-30	4.6	7.5
Brian Vogler	TE					10	6	27	60.0%	2.3%	80.0%	2.7	-47	2.6	4.6
Derrick Henry	RB	6'3, 242	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9928	8	5	133	62.5%	1.8%	25.0%	16.6	72	20.7	22.5
Kenyan Drake	RB	6'1, 210	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9427	6	5	159	83.3%	1.4%	83.3%	26.5	101	21.4	26.9
TY Flournoy-Smith	TE	6'3, 247	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8768	4	2	18	50.0%	0.9%	75.0%	4.5	-7	4.4	3.0
Raheem Falkins	WR-Z	6'4, 210	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8833	2	0	0	0.0%	0.5%	100.0%	0.0	-3	N/A	0.0
Derek Kief	WR	6'4, 198	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9116
Calvin Ridley	WR	6'1, 188	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9928
Daylon Charlot	WR	6'0, 195	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9560
Hale Hentges	WR	6'5, 235	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9332

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	122.7	3.32	3.83	48.9%	66.7%	14.2%	196.8	1.9%	4.8%
Rank	6	17	16	2	66	9	6	8	23

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Arie Kouandjio	LG					27	All-American, 2014 1st All-SEC
Austin Shepherd	RT					27	2014 2nd All-SEC
Ryan Kelly	C	6'5, 297	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9009	22
Cam Robinson	LT	6'6, 326	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9979	14
Leon Brown	RG					13
Bradley Bozeman	RG	6'5, 320	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8708	2
Alphonse Taylor	RG	6'5, 325	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9066	2
Isaac Luatua	LG	6'2, 315	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8744	0
Dominick Jackson	RT	6'6, 315	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9403	0
Korren Kirven	LT	6'4, 300	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9288	0
Brandon Greene	RT	6'5, 300	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9445	0
J.C. Hassenauer	C	6'2, 295	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9263	0
Ross Pierschbacher	LG	6'4, 298	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9646
Josh Casher	OL	6'1, 294	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8956
Lester Cotton	OL	6'4, 315	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9732
Richie Petitbon	OL	6'4, 315	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9671
Dallas Warmack	OL	6'2, 297	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9079
Brandon Kennedy	OL	6'3, 290	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8973

5. Likely strength up front

In 2013, Alabama had to replace three All-Americans from a line that ranked first in the country in Adj. Line Yards; the Tide proceeded to plummet to ... sixth.

Last year, they had to replace an All-American (Cyrus Kouandjio), an all-conference guard (Anthony Steen), and two others with starting experience and ... remained sixth.

Between the talent on hand and the presence of line coach (and former successful FIU head coach) Mario Cristobal, it's hard to doubt this line.

The Tide once again have to replace some contributors. This time, it's three players who combined for 67 career starts (including All-American Arie Kouandjio). Center Ryan Kelly's back, as is Freshman All-American Cam Robinson. The rest of the lineup will include some combination of upperclassmen (Isaac Luatua, Alphonse Taylor, Dominick Jackson), and high-upside youngsters. And guess what: the line will probably be pretty good.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.78	29	IsoPPP+	133.7	6
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	36.1%	15	Succ. Rt. +	123.0	7
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.9	46	Off. FP+	105.1	18
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.5	6	Redzone S&P+	141.3	3
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.4		ACTUAL	20.0	-5.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	12	7	6	6
RUSHING	4	1	2	1
PASSING	59	17	27	16
Standard Downs		2	4	4
Passing Downs		32	19	37

Q1 Rk	4	1st Down Rk	13
Q2 Rk	14	2nd Down Rk	1
Q3 Rk	41	3rd Down Rk	24
Q4 Rk	2

6. Nowhere to run

It didn't take opponents long to figure out the better path to success.

Alabama ranked first in the country in Rushing S&P+, allowing only 3.2 yards per carry and 102 rushing yards per game. (This makes Ezekiel Elliott's 230-yard Sugar Bowl performance even more impressive, doesn't it?).

Meanwhile, the pass defense was only good. The Tide still ranked 17th in Passing S&P+ and allowed an overall passer rating of just 116.5. Only three teams topped a passer rating of 126: West Virginia, Ole Miss, and Auburn. The other 11 completed just 52 percent at 10.8 yards per completion.

Still, the pass was by far the easier way to go. And with Alabama returning almost all of its front seven (of the 12 linemen and linebackers who made at least 10 tackles last year, 10 are back) but replacing two starting safeties, that probably won't change.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	144.6	2.26	2.19	31.6%	54.8%	26.4%	85.2	4.6%	5.6%
Rank	1	3	5	8	8	5	92	65	97

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jarran Reed	NG	6'4, 313	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8998	14	38.0	5.1%	6.5	1.0	0	5	0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	DE	6'4, 312	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9834	14	32.5	4.4%	6.5	0.0	0	3	1	0
Jonathan Allen	DE	6'3, 272	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9920	14	24.0	3.2%	11.0	5.0	0	1	0	0
D.J. Pettway	DE	6'2, 270	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8994	14	18.0	2.4%	3.5	2.5	0	3	0	0
Dalvin Tomlinson	DE	6'3, 294	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9162	14	15.0	2.0%	4.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Ivory	NG					14	7.0	0.9%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Da'Shawn Hand	DE	6'4, 273	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9978	9	5.5	0.7%	2.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Darren Lake	NG	6'3, 315	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8693	8	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Korren Kirven	NG	6'4, 300	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9288
Joshua Frazier	NG	6'4, 315	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9609
Daron Payne	DL	6'2, 315	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9870

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Reggie Ragland	WILL	6'2, 252	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9790	14	69.5	9.4%	10.5	1.5	1	3	1	0
Trey DePriest	MIKE					13	65.0	8.8%	5.0	0.0	0	3	1	0
Xzavier Dickson	JACK					14	37.0	5.0%	12.5	9.0	0	2	0	0
Ryan Anderson	JACK	6'2, 258	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9618	14	18.5	2.5%	8.0	3.0	0	0	0	1
Reuben Foster	MIKE	6'1, 240	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9958	11	17.5	2.4%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Dillon Lee	WILL	6'4, 242	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9518	14	17.0	2.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Rashaan Evans	WILL	6'3, 225	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9918	13	12.5	1.7%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Denzel Devall	SAM	6'2, 252	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9387	8	7.0	0.9%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tim Williams	JACK	6'4, 230	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9613	12	3.5	0.5%	1.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Shaun Dion Hamilton	MIKE	6'0, 229	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9173	14	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Walker Jones	WILL	6'2, 240	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8581
Christian Miller	LB	6'4, 213	RSFr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9796
Keith Holcombe	LB	6'4, 223	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8954
Mekhi Brown	LB	6'5, 240	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9452
Anfernee Jennings	OLB	6'3, 255	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9237
Joshua McMillon	LB	6'3, 240	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9055
Adonis Thomas	LB	6'2, 228	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9242

7. Best front seven in the country?

It's been a while since Alabama had a commanding pass rush; the Tide ranked 103rd in Adj. Sack Rate in 2013 and 92nd last fall. Saban and defensive coordinator Kirby Smart rarely send the house, and that has put some pressure on the secondary to hold coverage longer on passing downs.

Still, while the pressure could stand to improve, that's as much feature as bug. Saban's defense has never felt the need to get too aggressive, preferring to pursue. Despite opponents' efforts to spread them out, they still make as many gang tackles as anybody in the country.

The pass rush won't be aided without Xzavier Dickson, who led the team with nine sacks. But between Ryan Anderson and Tim Williams (who made 1.5 sacks and just 2 non-sacks last year), the new jack backer will likely approach Dickson's nine sacks, and the rest of the front seven is just loaded. Ends A'Shawn Robinson and Jonathan Allen were dominant against the run, and Reggie Ragland is faster than a 250-pound OLB should be. And the requisite load of blue-chip underclassmen are waiting for an opportunity.

This unit is going to be too big, too strong, and too fast for a vast majority of opponents.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Landon Collins	SS					14	81.0	11.0%	4.5	0	3	7	1	1
Nick Perry	FS					14	66.5	9.0%	4.5	0	2	5	0	0
Geno Smith	FS	6'0, 196	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9697	14	42.0	5.7%	3	0	0	1	1	0
Cyrus Jones	CB	5'10, 196	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9784	14	39.5	5.3%	2	0	3	13	2	1
Eddie Jackson	SS	6'0, 194	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8857	11	36.5	4.9%	2	1	1	6	2	1
Jabriel Washington	STAR	5'11, 182	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8902	13	14.0	1.9%	0	0	1	2	0	0
Jarrick Williams	STAR					11	10.5	1.4%	0.5	0	0	3	0	0
Maurice Smith	STAR	6'0, 199	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9599	14	8.5	1.2%	0.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Tony Brown	CB	6'0, 195	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9951	13	8.5	1.2%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Bradley Sylve	CB	6'0, 180	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9465	14	7.5	1.0%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Hootie Jones	SS	6'2, 219	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9753
Anthony Averett	CB	6'0, 180	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.9008
Marlon Humphrey	CB	6'1, 192	RSFr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9940
Ronnie Clark	DB	6'2, 228	RSFr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9659
Minkah Fitzpatrick	DB	6'1, 195	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9867
Kendall Sheffield	DB	6'0, 185	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9899
Deionte Thompson	DB	6'2, 183	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9795
Shawn Burgess-Becker	DB	6'1, 205	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9261
Ronnie Harrison	FS	6'3, 218	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9175

8. Still some shakiness in the back

Saban has loaded up on defensive backs in his last two signing classes, which makes the battle for playing time pretty interesting. Despite the loss of safeties Landon Collins, Nick Perry, and Jarrick Williams, Alabama returns six experienced juniors and seniors, and with Eddie Jackson and Geno Smith moving to safety, four of those six play safety. With senior Cyrus Jones holding down one starting corner position, that doesn't leave a lot of room for youth.

But between last year's "struggles" and the upside of the younger guys, a youth movement has to be a little tempting. Corners Tony Brown, Marlon Humphrey, and Minkah Fitzpatrick are all former five-star signees, and almost everybody on the above list was a four-star recruit according to one service or another.

They're starting to break into the second string in fall camp, but it looks like the Tide will choose experience over youth. We'll see what happens if there are a few more breakdowns on deep balls.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
JK Scott	6'5, 195	So.	55	48.0	5	19	31	90.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Adam Griffith	5'10, 192	Jr.	69	61.4	20	2	29.0%
JK Scott	6'5, 195	So.	24	62.5	8	1	33.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Adam Griffith	5'10, 192	Jr.	53-54	8-11	72.7%	4-8	50.0%
Gunnar Raborn	5'9, 187	So.	9-10	2-3	66.7%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Christion Jones	KR			37	23.0	0
Cyrus Jones	KR	5'10, 196	Sr.	4	19.3	0
Christion Jones	PR			19	8.0	0
Cyrus Jones	PR	5'10, 196	Sr.	4	20.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	88
Field Goal Efficiency	100
Punt Return Efficiency	118
Kick Return Efficiency	103
Punt Efficiency	4
Kickoff Efficiency	75
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	117

9. All-or-nothing special teams

Alabama ranked fifth in special teams efficiency in 2010, 28th in 2012, and first in 2013. The Tide ranked 73rd in 2011 and 88th in 2014.

Special teams are a small-sample exercise that can provide misleading stats, but basically everything but punting was mediocre at best last year. Christion Jones' returns were minuscule compared to what he had previously produced, and Adam Griffth's kickoffs and place kicks left something to be desired.

There's plenty of experience, and JK Scott is a magnificent punter -- he averaged nearly 50 yards per boot, and only 12 of his 55 punts were actually returned. I assume the Tide improve, but until the kicks get under control, I don't see this being another top-30 unit.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
5-Sep	vs. Wisconsin	25
12-Sep	Middle Tennessee	87
19-Sep	Ole Miss	6
26-Sep	UL-Monroe	102
3-Oct	at Georgia	3
10-Oct	Arkansas	12
17-Oct	at Texas A&M	22
24-Oct	Tennessee	20
7-Nov	LSU	8
14-Nov	at Mississippi State	21
21-Nov	Charleston Southern	NR
28-Nov	at Auburn	5

Five-Year F/+ Rk	62.7% (1)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	1 / 1
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-2 / 7.2
2014 TO Luck/Game	-3.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	11 (4, 7)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	12.3 (-0.3)

10. Earning it on the road

Alabama only officially returns 11 starters, but the Tide boast plenty of experience, and a few of the new starters got plenty of reps. Alabama will have Henry and a pretty experienced line on offense, a loaded front seven, and juniors and seniors in the secondary. The passing game might feature green pieces, but the Tide will be seasoned overall.

Experience and a strong defense should make Alabama a solid road team, and that's good. What might be the two toughest opponents on the schedule -- Georgia and Auburn -- play host. In fact, all five trips from Tuscaloosa (including the neutral-site season opener against Wisconsin) take place against projected top-25 teams. The odds of Alabama losing once are high.

But you're allowed one loss in the road to the College Football Playoff. Can an inexperienced quarterback and unproven receivers leave Athens, Auburn, etc., with just one loss? That's where the bar is for Bama. You can go 11-1, but 10-2 is a failure.

According to the F/+ ratings, Alabama has been the second-best team in football four times in five years. We can pretend that this is a crisis, and we can look elsewhere for SEC favorites if we are feeling creative. But even with change, the Tide are the safest bet in 2015 outside of Columbus. And even Ohio State has to prove itself a few more years in a row to match what Saban has done.