Steve Spurrier's South Carolina is probably in better shape than you think

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1. Swing and a miss

I tend to think of preseason stat projections as being knowledgeable advisors. I don't have to agree with them, but I know they're based in sound principles (in S&P+'s case, those are each program's long-term success, recruiting, and returning experience) and they're not going to overreact to a single performance, be it a great bowl game, a bad conference title game, etc.

I can always point to a few projections I disagree with. For instance, in the upcoming Football Outsiders Almanac 2015, our F/+ projections have UCLA fifth and TCU 15th. That feels too high and too low, respectively. But even if I think both should be about 10th, it's a reminder that we might not be taking UCLA seriously enough and that TCU's preseason résumé isn't as sound as we might think.

That said, I completely bought what the numbers were telling me last year about Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks. Last year's F/+ projections placed them fifth nationally and gave them a 50-50 chance of winning the SEC East. They had about a 15 percent chance of winning eight or fewer games.

As I wrote in this year's UCLA preview, there's a balance between depth and star power that we often get wrong. We notice that three stars have left (especially if one's a quarterback or a top draft pick), and we ignore that almost all of the other 41 members of the two-deep return. South Carolina had a proven track record (41 wins and three F/+ top-10 finishes in four years), solid recruiting (two-year recruiting ranking heading into 2014: 16th), and 14 returning starters. They had lost quarterback Connor Shaw, both starting cornerbacks, and star linemen Jadeveon Clowney and Kelcy Quarles. Still, they returned an experienced backup quarterback, a star running back, almost every receiver and offensive lineman, every linebacker, and every safety. Almost all of 2013's second string was back.

And South Carolina went 7-6. The offense held up (11th in Off. S&P+ in 2013, 21st in 2014), but the defense fell apart due to an outmanned front (20th in S&P+ in 2013, 71st in 2014), and the Gamecocks let four SEC games slip away in the fourth quarter. It was Spurrier's most frustrating season in years and prompted questions about everything from his coaching staff to his retirement date.

Whoops.

2. Let's not pretend this team is hopeless

No matter how this ends, Spurrier's tenure at South Carolina will be regarded as a success. A national title winner at Florida, Spurrier came to Columbia in 2005, inheriting a program that had been to 10 bowls since World War II. Predecessor Lou Holtz, also a legendary coach, had managed two bowls and three winning seasons in six years. Fan support had long hinted at growth, but it remained untapped.

In 10 seasons, Spurrier has reached nine bowls and has never finished with a below-.500 record. He lost either five or six games in each of his first six years, but a few huge recruiting wins led to a breakthrough. From 2011-13, the Gamecocks went 33-6 with the first three top-10 poll finishes in program history. (South Carolina's previous high finish was 11th in 1984, a 2007-esque season of oddity and adventure.)

Last year's backslide was frustrating for a couple of reasons. First, the Gamecocks began with East division hopes and, despite a demoralizing season-opening defeat against Texas A&M, took down Georgia early to keep those hopes alive. And then they figured out ways to lose in closing stages. The defense was perhaps the least disruptive in the country, lending to concerns about this post-Clowney universe.

And as Bud Elliott explained, a casual Spurrier remark about retirement has been used against him in recruiting. The future of this program is in doubt in a way we didn't foresee 12 months ago.

But let's not overstate the direness. While a final F/+ ranking of 38th is far worse than projected, this wasn't Michigan slipping to 54th or Oklahoma State falling to 75th. And while recruiting may have taken some dings, Spurrier signed a top-20 class in February. There's no question that it's a long road back to top-10 finishes, but this is still a top-40 team with top-20 potential. As with East-mates Florida, Tennessee, and Missouri, the Gamecocks' ceiling in 2015 will be set by newcomers and recent star recruits, and while you never want to rely on newcomers to determine your fate, it can still work.

South Carolina is far from the proven entity I thought I saw a year ago, but the Gamecocks should be better than most of their pre-Spurrier iterations. That's something, at least.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 38
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
28-Aug	Texas A&M	42	28-52	L	23%	-17.0	1%
6-Sep	East Carolina	61	33-23	W	85%	24.3	75%
13-Sep	Georgia	4	38-35	W	80%	19.6	39%
20-Sep	at Vanderbilt	115	48-34	W	73%	14.1	96%
27-Sep	Missouri	20	20-21	L	73%	14.4	59%
4-Oct	at Kentucky	68	38-45	L	44%	-3.5	24%
18-Oct	Furman	N/A	41-10	W	79%	19.2	100%
25-Oct	at Auburn	7	35-42	L	40%	-6.1	4%
1-Nov	Tennessee	24	42-45	L	64%	8.1	40%
15-Nov	at Florida	32	23-20	W	60%	5.6	23%
22-Nov	South Alabama	89	37-12	W	95%	37.6	100%
29-Nov	at Clemson	14	17-35	L	27%	-14.2	0%
27-Dec	vs. Miami	31	24-21	W	90%	30.2	90%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	36.9	21	29.0	71
Points Per Game	32.6	42	30.4	91

3. Good luck finding a trend

Their worst games were their first and second-to-last. Their best games came in two of the last three. They played well against one top-15 team (Georgia), played horribly against another (Clemson), and needed lucky breaks to stay close to another (Auburn).

From a trends perspective, there wasn't much that you could glean from South Carolina's 2014. Well, besides this:

• Average Percentile Performance (home): 71% (~top 35 | average score: SC 34, Opp 28)
• Average Percentile Performance (road): 49% (~top 65 | average score: Opp 35, SC 32)

Teams tend to end up about 15 percent better at home than on the road, so while SC's range between home and road is only slightly larger than normal, realize that it includes the season-opening dud against Texas A&M. Remove that, and the Gamecocks' home percentile average goes up to 79 percent.

South Carolina figured out a way to lose to Missouri and Tennessee at home, but the 'Cocks were still a solid, if unlucky, home team. But their defense went from shaky to awful on the road.

Tight wins over Georgia and Florida kept this season from going off the rails, while tight losses kept the Gamecocks from threatening 10 wins again.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.85	61	IsoPPP+	125.6	23
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.4%	31	Succ. Rt. +	120.6	13
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.9	85	Def. FP+	101.0	53
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.9	26	Redzone S&P+	118.5	24
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.6		ACTUAL	21	-2.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	35	17	14	23
RUSHING	67	16	11	27
PASSING	21	19	13	22
Standard Downs		22	19	27
Passing Downs		11	8	13

Q1 Rk	11	1st Down Rk	10
Q2 Rk	30	2nd Down Rk	44
Q3 Rk	14	3rd Down Rk	11
Q4 Rk	33

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Dylan Thompson					270	451	3574	26	11	59.9%	25	5.3%	7.1
Connor Mitch	6'3, 211	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8867	2	6	19	0	0	33.3%	1	14.3%	1.3
Perry Orth	6'1, 203	Jr.	NR	NR	0	2	0	0	0	0.0%	1	33.3%	-4.3
Michael Scarnecchia	6'4, 210	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8095
Lorenzo Nunez	6'2, 190	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8928

4. Got a QB?

South Carolina hasn't averaged fewer than 30 points per game since 2009. In that span, the Gamecocks have thrown for at least 3,000 yards, rushed for at least 2,000 yards, and ranked in the Off. S&P+ top 30 four times each.

They may have seen their streak of good defenses end in 2014, and they may have had some untimely failures, but this offense was just fine last fall, especially considering they lost starting quarterback Connor Shaw and leading receiver Bruce Ellington and star rusher Mike Davis struggled with nagging injuries.

Spurrier doesn't have bad offenses often, in other words. He hasn't had the sterling level of quarterback play that he had in his Florida days, but he almost always finds a competent one. And while he's not recruiting at a top-five level, he's got plenty of former four-star guys in the chamber.

Two quarterbacks are among that four-star list: sophomore Connor Mitch and freshman Lorenzo Nunez. Mitch is the perceived front-runner and seems to fit the prototype of a shotgun passer: solid arm, quick release, etc.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Mike Davis	TB					199	982	9	4.9	4.1	39.2%	3	2
Brandon Wilds	TB	6'2, 216	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8223	106	570	4	5.4	4.8	45.3%	1	1
David Williams	TB	6'1, 214	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9283	45	256	2	5.7	5.2	40.0%	1	1
Dylan Thompson	QB					42	124	4	3.0	2.9	33.3%	5	3
Pharoh Cooper	WR	5'11, 207	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8730	27	200	2	7.4	7.8	48.1%	4	0
Shon Carson	TB	5'8, 204	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8875	18	141	2	7.8	9.8	44.4%	2	0
Damiere Byrd	WR					7	57	0	8.1	4.7	71.4%	1	1
Connor Mitch	QB	6'3, 211	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8867	2	7	0	3.5	0.5	50.0%	0	0
Connor McLaurin	FB
Rivers Bedenbaugh (Ga. Southern)	FB	6'2, 245	So.	NR	NR
A.J. Turner	RB	5'10, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8841
Mon Denson	RB	5'10, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8656

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Pharoh Cooper	WR	5'11, 207	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8730	102	70	1152	68.6%	22.7%	57.8%	11.3	316	11.3	172.8
Nick Jones	WR					62	42	504	67.7%	13.8%	62.9%	8.1	1	8.1	75.6
Damiere Byrd	WR					49	20	318	40.8%	10.9%	69.4%	6.5	50	7.2	47.7
Rory Anderson	TE					47	22	260	46.8%	10.4%	46.8%	5.5	-25	5.8	39.0
Shaq Roland	WR					46	26	356	56.5%	10.2%	54.3%	7.7	34	7.9	53.4
Mike Davis	TB					42	32	368	76.2%	9.3%	52.4%	8.8	-7	8.9	55.2
Jerell Adams	TE	6'6, 231	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9067	38	21	279	55.3%	8.4%	42.1%	7.3	17	7.3	41.8
Brandon Wilds	TB	6'2, 216	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8223	24	18	143	75.0%	5.3%	45.8%	6.0	-69	6.4	21.5
K.J. Brent	WR					13	9	111	69.2%	2.9%	38.5%	8.5	4	6.8	16.7
David Williams	TB	6'1, 214	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9283	8	7	99	87.5%	1.8%	75.0%	12.4	19	10.5	14.9
Shon Carson	TB	5'8, 204	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8875	6	5	40	83.3%	1.3%	33.3%	6.7	-18	7.7	6.0
Shamier Jeffery	WR	6'1, 198	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8731	6	2	9	33.3%	1.3%	66.7%	1.5	-19	1.3	1.4
Carlton Heard	WR	6'0, 182	Sr.	NR	NR
Clayton Stadnik	TE	6'3, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8434
Sean Odom	WR	6'0, 194	Jr.	NR	NR
Matrick Belton	WR	6'4, 209	Jr.	NR	NR
Kevin Crosby	TE	6'1, 238	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8941
Terry Googer	WR	6'4, 226	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8783
Shaq Davidson	WR	5'11, 175	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9188
Deebo Samuel	WR	6'0, 202	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8483
Christian Owens	WR	6'5, 204	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8894
Jalen Christian	WR	5'9, 170	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9149
Dexter Neal	WR	6'2, 195	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8727
Jerad Washington	WR	5'8, 158	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8413

5. Got receivers?

South Carolina has a nice efficiency back in senior Brandon Wilds, who gained five yards on nearly half of his 2014 carries and caught three-quarters of the passes thrown his way. Plus, in sophomore back David Williams and longtime reserve Shon Carson, the Gamecocks might have some exciting explosiveness options in the backfield.

Still, without the more mobile Shaw, South Carolina threw more frequently than normal, especially on passing downs. Mitch isn't a statue, but he isn't known for his run prowess, so the run-pass rates might not change much, especially if the rebuilt line* isn't able to open as many holes.

That means Pharoh Cooper can expect 100-plus targets again. That also means a lot of young receivers will see opportunities.

Seven SC wideouts and tight ends were targeted at least 10 times last fall, but only two -- Cooper and tight end Jerell Adams -- are back. The other five combined for 17 targets and 119 yards per game. Those targets will now go to some combination of career reserves (senior Shamier Jeffery), walk-ons (Sean Odom, Carlton Heard, Matric Belton), a converted lineman (Stadnik) and glorious youth. Three redshirt freshmen were given a four-star designation by either Rivals or the 247Sports Composite, and a fourth (Deebo Samuel) was a standout in the spring. Plus, three more four-star true freshmen will look to join the mix.

If one or two of these can play well and another is competent, the passing game will probably be fine. But you never know that freshmen will step up until they do. I have long called Spurrier one of the nation's best at picking at opposing defense's weaknesses, and his offense could have just enough talent to pick away.

* Three-year starting guard (and potential All-SECer) Brandon Shell returns, as do five others with starting experience, and the Gamecocks boast 73 career starts in all. But the left side of the line is getting retooled, and center Clayton Stadnik has moved to tight end. There are still three potential senior starters, but a drop-off wouldn't be a total surprise.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	113.2	3.07	3.19	41.5%	71.4%	19.7%	119.1	4.4%	6.6%
Rank	23	45	76	35	35	72	40	57	48

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
A.J. Cann	LG					51	All-American, 2014 2nd All-SEC
Brandon Shell	LT	6'6, 328	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9525	36
Corey Robinson	LT					35
Clayton Stadnik	C/TE					13	Moved to tight end
Will Sport	RG	6'5, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8106	11
Mike Matulis	RT	6'5, 293	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8634	10
Cody Waldrop	LG	6'2, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8795	8
Alan Knott	C	6'4, 270	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8672	7
Mason Zandi	RT	6'9, 314	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8161	1
Brock Stadnik	RG	6'5, 285	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9313	0
D.J. Park	LT	6'4, 325	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8999	0
Donell Stanley	LG	6'4, 320	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9317
Malik Young	LT	6'3, 308	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8615
Zack Bailey	OL	6'5, 330	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9045
Christian Pellage	OL	6'6, 305	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9007
Blake Camper	OL	6'7, 295	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8544

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.85	68	IsoPPP+	92.3	90
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	47.1%	118	Succ. Rt. +	87.1	115
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.2	88	Off. FP+	100.0	65
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.5	78	Redzone S&P+	86.2	119
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.4		ACTUAL	19.0	+1.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	94	104	109	90
RUSHING	107	109	107	112
PASSING	53	71	91	61
Standard Downs		111	109	105
Passing Downs		69	93	60

Q1 Rk	87	1st Down Rk	100
Q2 Rk	85	2nd Down Rk	87
Q3 Rk	86	3rd Down Rk	82
Q4 Rk	116

6. Hello, old friend

Okay, sometimes star power trumps depth. South Carolina returned basically seven of its top 10 linemen from 2013, but the three who departed -- ends Jadeveon Clowney and Chaz Sutton and tackle Kelcy Quarles, who combined for 33.5 tackles for loss, 15.5 sacks, five passes defensed, and three forced fumbles -- were of a different quality than the seven who returned.

Without this trio, South Carolina suddenly had one of the least effective fronts in football: 109th in Rushing S&P+, 105th in Adj. Line Yards, 110th in stuff rate, 120th in Adj. Sack Rate, 125th in passing downs sack rate. The entire line made barely as many plays as Clowney and Sutton had by themselves (and here's your reminder that Clowney's 2013 was deemed a disappointment). And with struggles like this up front, it isn't a surprise that the Gamecock defense got worse in the fourth quarter.

(The only reason the defense ranked 71st instead of much worse is that it created decent field position for its offense. Of course, that was due as much to the return game as anything the defense did.)

When production falls apart, it is almost certainly a talent issue. Coaching might not be up to snuff, but on-field personnel definitely isn't.

Spurrier took no chances. He not only signed a load of JUCO linemen, he brought in an old friend. Jon Hoke has spent the last 13 seasons as an NFL defensive backs coach, but before that, he spent three seasons as Spurrier's coordinator at Florida. Hoke was named co-coordinator with Lorenzo Ward, whom Spurrier retained. (Ward was the sole coordinator from 2012-14, and while he was maligned last fall, his defenses were fine in 2012-13. Talent matters, and South Carolina suddenly had far less of it.)

Hoke's role will be more in defending the pass than the run -- and even with a shoddy pass rush, the run was the major issue -- but his input can't hurt.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	90	3.49	3.62	43.3%	70.9%	15.6%	63.6	4.3%	2.9%
Rank	105	122	93	116	88	110	120	73	125

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Gerald Dixon	DE	6'2, 269	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.7900	12	35.5	5.0%	5.0	2.0	0	3	1	0
J.T. Surratt	DT					12	25.0	3.5%	4.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Gerald Dixon, Jr.	NT	6'3, 327	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8103	13	22.0	3.1%	2.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Darius English	DE	6'6, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8990	12	20.5	2.9%	2.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Phillip Dukes	DT	6'3, 319	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9271	13	15.5	2.2%	3.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
David Johnson	DE	6'1, 240	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8737	9	12.0	1.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Mason Harris	DE					10	6.5	0.9%	2.0	1.0	0	2	1	0
Kelsey Griffin	DT	6'2, 316	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9599	6	6.0	0.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Abu Lamin	NT	6'4, 326	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8988	10	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Taylor Stallworth	DT	6'2, 308	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8547	8	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cedrick Cooper	DE	6'2, 248	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8610	6	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Marquavius Lewis	DE	6'3, 264	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9587
Ulric Jones	DE	6'5, 275	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8485
Devante Covington	DE	6'4, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8306
Dante Sawyer	DE	6'3, 280	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8958
Jihaustin Thomas	DE	6'6, 255	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8000
Shameik Blackshear	DE	6'5, 240	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9309
Dexter Wideman	NT	6'4, 293	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9271
Quandeski Whitlow	DE	6'4, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8615

7. ALL HANDS ON DECK

If quantity equals quality, South Carolina's defense could rebound by quite a bit. Of course, if quantity was quality, last year's D wouldn't have struggled.

Still, the JUCO reinforcements are legion. Marquavious Lewis was one of the most touted JUCO recruits in the country, and Dante Sawyer was a star in the 2014 class who needed an extra year to get qualified. Spurrier went after three other JUCO ends as well.

If Lewis and Sawyer are both able to live up to four-star potential as both run defenders and decent pass rushers, that alone will cure some of what ailed the 'Cocks. And with basically eight members of last year's 10-man rotation back, a few new contributors could raise competition levels.

As with the quarterback position, competence isn't a given. But when you bring in six JUCOs in one unit, odds are decent that one or two will be ready to contribute at a high level.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Skai Moore	MLB	6'2, 218	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8786	12	72.5	10.2%	2.5	1.0	3	0	0	1
Jonathan Walton	WLB	6'0, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8411	13	48.5	6.8%	2.5	0.0	1	2	0	0
Sharrod Golightly	SLB					13	47.0	6.6%	7.5	1.5	1	3	0	0
T.J. Holloman	MLB	6'2, 231	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8612	13	26.5	3.7%	2.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Marcquis Roberts	MLB					13	23.0	3.2%	1.5	0.0	0	2	0	0
Bryson Allen-Williams	WLB	6'1, 233	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9503	12	22.5	3.2%	2.5	0.5	0	0	1	0
Kaiwan Lewis	MLB					8	15.0	2.1%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Larenz Bryant	SLB	6'0, 220	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9496	12	3.0	0.4%	1.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Ernest Hawkins	SLB	6'1, 224	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8419
Sherrod Pittman	WLB	6'0, 225	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.8950
Jalen Henry	MLB	5'10, 207	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8423
Daniel Fennell	LB	6'2, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8640

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
T.J. Gurley	SPUR	5'10, 199	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8519	13	64.5	9.0%	1	0	1	4	0	0
Isaiah Johnson (Kansas)	S	6'0, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8000	12	63.5	9.3%	0.5	0	1	2	1	0
Jordan Diggs	SS	6'0, 209	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8786	13	32.5	4.6%	5	2	0	0	1	0
Chris Moody	FS	6'1, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8525	13	31.0	4.3%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Rico McWilliams	CB	5'11, 186	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8550	12	30.0	4.2%	1	0	0	5	0	0
Brison Williams	SS					13	29.5	4.1%	1	0	4	6	0	0
Chris Lammons	CB	5'10, 183	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9165	10	20.5	2.9%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Kadetrix Marcus	SS					12	20.5	2.9%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Al Harris Jr.	CB	5'11, 163	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8587	12	19.0	2.7%	1	0	0	3	0	0
Chaz Elder	SS	6'2, 209	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8984	12	18.5	2.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
D.J. Smith	FS	5'11, 195	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9175	12	9.5	1.3%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Sidney Rhodes	CB					11	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jamari Smith	CB	5'10, 200	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8634
Jasper Sasser	SPUR	6'0, 207	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8541
Ali Groves	FS	5'10, 183	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8594
Wesley Green	CB	5'10, 175	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9279
Toure Boyd	S	5'10, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8644
Darin Smalls	SPUR	5'11, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8706
Antoine Wilder	DB	5'10, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8569

8. Freshmen and sophomores become sophomores and juniors

If the front four improves, the back seven could be downright strong. Last year's secondary was dealt a challenging hand, with all freshmen and sophomores at cornerback and one of the worst pass rushes in the country.

This led to a nearly complete lack of play-making at CB -- the three primary contributors at the position combined for just eight passes defensed and 1.5 tackles for loss -- but solid safety play prevented the 'Cocks from getting lit up by big plays.

With T.J. Gurley, Jordan Diggs, and Chris Moody back, safety should again be a strength. Plus, with added experience at corner, more warm bodies in the pass rush, and interesting newcomers (four-star redshirt freshman Wesley Green [Update: Green is transferring out, Steve Spurrier said], JUCO safety Toure Boyd), the efficiency numbers should improve. I don't see a top-20 pass defense, but it should go from "relative strength" to "strength."

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Tyler Hull			42	41.5	4	13	15	66.7%
Patrick Fish			2	39.0	0	1	1	100.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Landon Ard	5'9, 182	Sr.	68	59.2	36	2	52.9%
Zack Cimaglia			12	62.2	7	0	58.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Elliott Fry	6'0, 164	Jr.	51-51	11-12	91.7%	7-13	53.8%
Landon Ard	5'9, 182	Sr.	1-1	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Shon Carson	KR	5'8, 204	Sr.	31	20.4	0
Sidney Rhodes	KR			4	18.0	0
Pharoh Cooper	PR	5'11, 207	Jr.	15	5.0	0
Nick Jones	PR			4	5.3	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	37
Field Goal Efficiency	33
Punt Return Efficiency	45
Kick Return Efficiency	50
Punt Efficiency	38
Kickoff Efficiency	89
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	22

9. Got a punter?

South Carolina will be reliant on another key newcomer in special teams: FAU transfer Sean Kelly, who will likely take over punting duties. He averaged more than 41 yards per punt for the Owls in 2012, and he takes over for Tyler Hull, whose solid punts aided the field position cause.

That the Gamecocks managed to have only a minus-1.7 yard disadvantage in average starting field position, despite a woefully inefficient defense, was a minor victory. Hull's punts and the semi-efficient returns of Shon Carson and Pharoh Cooper had a role to play. If Kelly is solid, the rest of the unit should be.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
3-Sep	vs. North Carolina	44
12-Sep	Kentucky	52
19-Sep	at Georgia	3
26-Sep	Central Florida	60
3-Oct	at Missouri	23
10-Oct	LSU	8
17-Oct	Vanderbilt	83
31-Oct	at Texas A&M	22
7-Nov	at Tennessee	20
14-Nov	Florida	29
21-Nov	The Citadel	NR
28-Nov	Clemson	15

Five-Year F/+ Rk	35.6% (9)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	18 / 20
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-2 / -6.2
2014 TO Luck/Game	+1.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (4, 8)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	6.5 (0.5)

10. So many tossups

South Carolina was 18 points from finishing the regular season 10-2 and six points from 4-8. Including the bowl, the Gamecocks played in eight games decided by 10 or fewer points.

Considering the schedule features a visit from LSU, a neutral-site game against UNC, and five games against teams projected between 15th and 29th, odds are good that a South Carolina team that should rank about 30th will again be in a lot of games that aren't decided until the fourth quarter.

With almost every game winnable and about nine losable, it is difficult to confidently predict South Carolina's fortunes. The Football Outsiders Almanac 2015 projects the Gamecocks 27th, with a 42 percent chance of 8-4 or better and a 30 percent chance of 6-6 or worse. A 7-5 finish is the most likely outcome, but there's only about a one-in-four chance of that.

Though Spurrier is a lot closer to the end of his career than the beginning, it would be disappointing if he didn't come up with a few more surprises. And while predictions of impending doom may come to fruition, South Carolina will have a puncher's chance at a nice bounceback.