Florida Gators are threats to beat any team they play, thanks to their defense alone

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1. Sensibility

It's been difficult to elaborate on Florida's hire of Jim McElwain as its new head coach. It just ... made sense. The former Colorado State coach has the pro-style credentials many ruling-class programs covet. He's got SEC experience (four seasons as Nick Saban's offensive coordinator at Alabama).

And he's a somewhat proven head coach. He inherited a Colorado State program that had gone 3-9 for three straight years, and he went 4-8, then 8-6, then 10-3.

All good things. His assistant hires made sense, too. You've got Doug Nussmeier, another former Saban coordinator, running the offense. Geoff Collins, former Mississippi State coordinator, takes over the D. Former Miami head coach Randy Shannon is aboard as associate head coach and linebackers coach.

The staff has experience, Florida recruiting ties, etc. Very little about this hire was sexy, but it was sensible. It will probably work.

Florida's last two head coach hires were sensible too. After taking a risk by hiring Ron Zook in 2002, athletic director Jeremy Foley has stuck to the script, and he's gone 1-for-2. Urban Meyer was prototypical mid-major success story, with four years of head coaching experience, 39 wins, and a top-five finish at Utah. Will Muschamp was the trendy defensive coordinator, once Texas' head coach in waiting, whose name had been connected to other power positions. The former won two national titles. The latter had Florida playing at a level below SEC average in three of four seasons.

This sensible hire has to clean up for the last one. What does that mean for Year 1?

A stellar defense, for starters. Defense was never much of a problem for Muschamp -- his four Gator defenses ranked 13th, first, fourth, and eighth in Def. S&P+. Collins inherits a front seven with proven playmakers (and dicey experience on the line, at least outside of the projected starting four) and an unimpeachable secondary. He was able to craft top-30 defenses at Mississippi State, and he should be able to do far more with this personnel.

On offense, there's a mess. Florida ranked 72nd in Off. S&P+ last fall, 83rd before that. There seem to be two schools of thought when it comes to a defensive coordinator making decisions about his team's offensive philosophy: one kind chooses the kind of offense that he would hate to defend, and others just want the offense to stay out of the way so the D can win.

Muschamp did win 11 games in 2012 with the latter approach, but he won just 11 in 2013-14 combined. The offense had little rhythm, confidence or explosiveness. The personnel seemed to understand that their existence frustrated Muschamp, that if he could figure out how to win with 60 minutes of defense, he would give it a shot.

The defense should assure Florida of a high floor. Even in the last two years, with sputtering offenses, the Gators still ranked 45th and 32nd in overall F/+. But it is too much to ask of the new staff to quickly turn around that grunting O. There is too much youth, no proven depth, and a patchwork line. That slaps a ceiling on the season.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-5 | Adj. Record: 10-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 32
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
6-Sep	Eastern Michigan	128	65-0	W	94%	36.7	100%
13-Sep	Kentucky	68	36-30	W	69%	11.7	82%
20-Sep	at Alabama	2	21-42	L	28%	-13.6	0%
4-Oct	at Tennessee	24	10-9	W	67%	10.2	63%
11-Oct	LSU	22	27-30	L	64%	8.4	52%
18-Oct	Missouri	20	13-42	L	21%	-18.7	2%
1-Nov	Georgia	4	38-20	W	96%	41.8	98%
8-Nov	at Vanderbilt	115	34-10	W	85%	24.3	100%
15-Nov	South Carolina	38	20-23	L	69%	11.4	77%
22-Nov	Eastern Kentucky	N/A	48-14	W	95%	39.2	100%
29-Nov	Florida State	15	19-24	L	81%	20.1	84%
3-Jan	vs. East Carolina	61	28-20	W	65%	8.8	43%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	27.9	72	16.4	8
Points Per Game	29.9	59	22.0	25

2. Too little, too late

Our narrative is easy. Muschamp's tenure fell apart with 2013's 4-8, and it was all but certain he would lose his job following an unsuccessful rebound. We knew that was conceivable heading into last fall, and that's what happened.

Muschamp came close to staying afloat, however, perhaps closer than we realized in real time.

The Win Expectancy column above looks at key stats and says, "With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X percent of the time." With the box scores at hand, Florida had a 52 percent chance of beating LSU, a 77 percent chance of beating South Carolina, and an 84 percent chance of beating Playoff semifinalist Florida State. Odds would say they should have gone at least 2-1 in those three games. They went 0-3, finishing 7-4 in the regular season.

The Gators' slapstick performance against Missouri on Homecoming is said to have been the beginning of the end. It was an amazing performance in all the wrong ways. Florida turned the ball over six times and gave up a superfecta of return touchdowns -- kickoff, punt, fumble, interception -- and Missouri's offense actively tried to stay out of the way. The Tigers completed six passes for 20 yards, gained 119 total yards, and won by 29 points.

There was almost nothing Muschamp could do to rebound ... but he almost pulled it off. Florida responded by whipping Georgia and almost doing enough to beat South Carolina and FSU. Pull that off, and that's a five-game win streak. Muschamp possibly survives.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 6 games): 57% (~top 55 | record: 3-3)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 5 games): 85% (~top 20 | record: 3-2)

Florida did Missouri countless favors, both in the teams' Homecoming "battle" and in the win over UGA two weeks later. But if McElwain ends up turning UF back into a top-10 program, the more hapless moments of 2014 might be regarded fondly by Florida fans as well.

Without the return scores by Missouri, two blocked kicks by South Carolina in the final four minutes of regulation, and some impressive drive-finishing ineptitude against Florida State -- UF drove inside FSU's 40 eight times, scored one touchdown, attempted six field goals (missing two), and throwing a pick six (net points in eight trips: 12) -- Muschamp might still be the coach.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.87	50	IsoPPP+	95.8	77
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	36.4%	112	Succ. Rt. +	93.1	96
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.9	46	Def. FP+	101.0	53
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	74	Redzone S&P+	82.6	118
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.6		ACTUAL	24	+5.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	96	91	102	77
RUSHING	43	69	82	55
PASSING	106	98	120	77
Standard Downs		101	99	105
Passing Downs		49	104	22

Q1 Rk	106	1st Down Rk	70
Q2 Rk	81	2nd Down Rk	49
Q3 Rk	70	3rd Down Rk	54
Q4 Rk	36

3. A Doug Nussmeier offense

You get the impression that, before each game, Muschamp turned to his offense and said, "DON'T F*** THIS UP FOR ME."

A Gator offense, loaded with former four- and five-star recruits, should never start games as poorly, throw as inefficiently, or finish drives as horrifically. If nothing else, I assume this year's offense will improve in those areas. Progress, right?

After his tenure with Alabama, Nussmeier spent last season trying to bail water out of Brady Hoke's sinking Michigan boat. He didn't have the playmakers, but a) Michigan had a top-50 offense in the first quarter, and b) the Wolverines had top-50 pass efficiency (and top-100 pass explosiveness, but we're focusing on the positives). And while they averaged just 3.9 points per scoring opportunity (100th in FBS), adjusting for opponent makes that look better, too.

Nussmeier is organized and decent. His system protects the quarterback to a degree; he aims for balance on standard downs and calls more runs than the national average on passing downs. His Michigan offense failed in "you don't have the guys" ways: fading after the first quarter, stinking on third downs and passing downs, etc.

With a young quarterback, younger skill-position guys and a mélange of a line, he might not have those guys this year either. But in key ways, Nussmeier's structure should lead to improvement.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Jeff Driskel					114	212	1140	9	10	53.8%	10	4.5%	4.8
Treon Harris	5'11, 195	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9417	55	111	1019	9	4	49.5%	7	5.9%	8.4
Will Grier	6'2, 201	RSFr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9758

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Matt Jones	RB					166	817	6	4.9	4.6	36.7%	3	1
Kelvin Taylor	RB	5'10, 205	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9896	116	565	6	4.9	5.8	33.6%	0	0
Treon Harris	QB	5'11, 195	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9417	68	364	3	5.4	4.4	47.1%	5	3
Jeff Driskel	QB					59	249	4	4.2	2.8	42.4%	2	2
Adam Lane	RB	5'7, 226	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8830	24	181	1	7.5	8.9	45.8%	1	1
Mack Brown	RB					22	95	0	4.3	11.0	18.2%	0	0
Brandon Powell	SLOT	5'9, 184	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8784	16	70	1	4.4	3.2	31.3%	0	0
Darius Masline	RB					7	25	0	3.6	4.7	28.6%	0	0
Hunter Joyer	FB
Mark Herndon	RB	5'9, 195	Sr.	NR	NR
Jordan Scarlett	RB	5'10, 198	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9442
Jordan Cronkrite	RB	5'11, 205	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9020

4. Now's your chance, Kelvin

Kelvin Taylor might have been the most encouraging piece of Florida's 2013, not because of what he accomplished (4.6 yards per carry over just 12 carries per game) but because of the future he represented. In his first sustained action that year, he rushed 22 times for 126 yards against LSU and Missouri, and for a half it looked like he might carry the limping Gators to an upset at South Carolina. It was easy to be excited.

In 2014, he didn't really become much. He got basically the same number of carries, surpassed on the depth chart by Matt Jones, and while he still showed ability in the open field, he rarely found it. He carried 25 times for 197 yards (7.9 per carry) and two scores in a brilliant performance against Georgia. He carried 91 times for just 368 yards (4.0) the rest of the year. In the final two games, he carried 17 times for 37 yards (2.2).

The bricolage line will have something to say about this, but if Florida's offense is going to succeed, it's going to be because Taylor overcame his sophomore slump. There are other interesting options; sophomore Adam Lane (whose name you might recognize for different reasons) [Update: and who has since transferred to Eastern Kentucky] rushed for 109 yards on 16 carries in the bowl win over ECU, and incoming freshman Jordan Scarlett was one of the nation's most-touted backs in the 2015 class. But Taylor has the size, speed, and pedigree (father: Fred Taylor, a former Gator and one of the NFL's more underrated backs) to be a star.

It appears redshirt freshman Will Grier is the favorite to win the starting quarterback job. The former blue-chipper is far from a diamond-in-the-rough type, but he was forgotten last year, redshirting as fellow freshman Treon Harris efforted in place of starter Jeff Driskel. Grier showed nice progress this spring and turned heads by going 8-for-11 for 136 yards in the spring game. He will make mistakes, and his decision-making will be too slow at times, but he will have bright moments as long as he's not constantly asked to make plays on second-and-9 or third-and-8.

(One asterisk: Oregon State quarterback Luke Del Rio transferred to Florida, and there's a tiny chance he's eligible. That almost certainly won't happen, so I haven't listed him.)

And he'll have Demarcus Robinson. Gator fans were high on the former blue-chipper heading into last year, and he backed up the faith with an enormous start. He almost single-handedly helped the Gators survive against Kentucky, catching 15 passes for 216 yards, and he caught five for 104 a few weeks later in the tight loss to LSU. But following every breakout, he disappeared.

After Robinson, who knows? Three other returning wideouts caught at least five passes, and all three are former four-star recruits. Sophomore tight end DeAndre Goolsby caught a touchdown from Grier in the spring game. The staff is reportedly high on four-star freshman Antonio Callaway. The potential is high, but no one outside of Robinson has proved much.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Demarcus Robinson	WR	6'1, 204	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9640	95	53	810	55.8%	31.4%	51.6%	8.5	151	8.6	93.7
Quinton Dunbar	WR					42	21	353	50.0%	13.9%	54.8%	8.4	85	8.5	40.8
Clay Burton	TE					27	18	156	66.7%	8.9%	55.6%	5.8	-60	5.7	18.0
Ahmad Fulwood	WR	6'4, 208	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9494	25	12	199	48.0%	8.3%	60.0%	8.0	45	8.1	23.0
Latroy Pittman, Jr.	WR	6'0, 212	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8967	25	15	164	60.0%	8.3%	40.0%	6.6	-20	5.5	19.0
Brandon Powell	SLOT	5'9, 184	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8784	24	15	147	62.5%	7.9%	79.2%	6.1	-35	6.7	17.0
Matt Jones	RB					21	11	65	52.4%	6.9%	61.9%	3.1	-74	3.1	7.5
Tevin Westbrook	TE					11	8	81	72.7%	3.6%	63.6%	7.4	-14	7.2	9.4
Kelvin Taylor	RB	5'10, 205	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9896	7	2	-8	28.6%	2.3%	28.6%	-1.1	-38	-1.9	-0.9
Valdez Showers	SLOT	6'0, 193	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9053	5	2	31	40.0%	1.7%	20.0%	6.2	4	3.3	3.6
Andre Debose	WR					5	1	-3	20.0%	1.7%	100.0%	-0.6	-20	N/A	-0.3
Chris Thompson	WR	6'0, 171	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8544	3	2	17	66.7%	1.0%	33.3%	5.7	-7	3.6	2.0
C.J. Worton	WR	6'0, 195	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8756	3	2	12	66.7%	1.0%	33.3%	4.0	-12	2.5	1.4
Jake McGee	TE	6'6, 249	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7667	1	0	0	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0	-1	N/A	0.0
Alvin Bailey	SLOT	5'11, 192	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9225
DeAndre Goolsby	TE	6'4, 243	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8656
Moral Stephens	TE	6'3, 240	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8759
Ryan Sousa	WR	6'0, 195	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8687
Antonio Callaway	WR	5'11, 198	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8869

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100	2.59	3.56	37.4%	73.5%	19.4%	113.8	2.9%	6.8%
Rank	74	108	39	83	24	69	48	23	51

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Chaz Green	RT					30
Max Garcia	C					24
D.J. Humphries	LT					19
Tyler Moore	RG					14
Trenton Brown	RG					11
Trip Thurman	LG	6'5, 313	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8876	10
Roderick Johnson	RT					3
David Sharpe	LT	6'6, 355	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9434	0
Antonio Riles	OL	6'4, 322	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8753	0
Cameron Dillard	C	6'4, 308	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8712	0
Travaris Dorsey	OL	6'2, 318	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8600
Andrew Mike	OL	6'6, 302	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8767
Kavaris Harkless	OL	6'5, 300	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8491
Mason Halter (Fordham)	OL	6'6, 295	Sr.	NR	NR	33
Martez Ivey	OL	6'5, 302	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9990
Tyler Jordan	OL	6'4, 292	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8795

5. Starting from scratch

The Florida line improved dramatically last year. It was a complete disaster in 2013, ranking 102nd in Adj. Line Yards and 100th in Adj. Sack Rate. Those numbers improved to a mediocre 74th and 48th, respectively. The run game wasn't efficient enough, which was on both the line and the backs, but improvement is improvement.

Of course, that doesn't matter now, as 2015's line will be almost brand new. Guard Trip Thurman started 10 games last year ... and the rest of the returnees combined for zero.

So line coach Mike Summers, a Muschamp holdover, will be making potpourri. Thurman is a senior, as is three-year starting Fordham tackle Mason Halter, who is making a slight leap up in competition (Patriot League to SEC) as a senior transfer.

After that: a smattering of sophomores, redshirt freshmen and freshmen. Some come incredibly regarded, of course -- it would be a surprise if blue-chip freshman Martez Ivey didn't start from day one -- but the primary goal has to be finding the right mix of talent for 2016 and beyond. There will be errors up front.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.72	4	IsoPPP+	129.8	8
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	37.9%	24	Succ. Rt. +	116.5	20
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	33.7	9	Off. FP+	110.1	2
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.8	20	Redzone S&P+	119.2	18
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	31.3		ACTUAL	30.0	-1.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	15	10	16	8
RUSHING	13	14	27	4
PASSING	42	15	10	22
Standard Downs		10	15	8
Passing Downs		21	21	22

Q1 Rk	39	1st Down Rk	6
Q2 Rk	5	2nd Down Rk	9
Q3 Rk	15	3rd Down Rk	8
Q4 Rk	4

6. A Geoff Collins defense

Collins' Mississippi State defenses attempted to render you one-dimensional by stopping the run, then tee off on you on passing downs. His 2014 unit was unapologetically aggressive, excellent on passing downs despite giving up some big scrambles and draws.

The Bulldogs got hands on both the quarterback and his passes, and opponents still felt the best way to attack was through the air. Opponents threw 3 percent more frequently than the national average on standard downs and almost 5 percent more frequently on passing downs.

It will be interesting to see what happens to those rates this year. Despite Florida having one of the nation's most efficient pass defenses, opponents elected to throw on the Gators. But while they have some turnover to deal with in the front seven, they might also have the nation's best secondary, with three of the SEC's most successfully aggressive cornerbacks and steady safeties.

Florida's m.o. was to prevent big plays on the ground and attack against the air. Despite a mediocre pass rush, this formula worked. We'll see what changes after turnover on the front and in the booth.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	117	2.66	3.22	34.2%	63.0%	22.7%	99.2	6.6%	6.0%
Rank	14	31	58	22	39	22	68	28	90

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dante Fowler, Jr.	DE					12	44.5	6.6%	15.0	8.5	0	1	2	1
Jonathan Bullard	DT	6'3, 283	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9918	12	35.5	5.3%	8.5	2.5	0	2	0	0
Bryan Cox, Jr.	DE	6'3, 268	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8716	11	20.5	3.0%	6.0	4.0	0	0	0	0
Darious Cummings	DT					11	20.5	3.0%	5.0	2.0	0	2	0	0
Alex McCalister	RUSH	6'6, 239	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8746	12	17.5	2.6%	8.0	6.0	0	1	1	0
Joey Ivie	DT	6'3, 295	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8814	12	16.0	2.4%	3.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Caleb Brantley	DT	6'2, 314	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9472	12	13.5	2.0%	4.0	0.0	0	0	2	0
Gerald Willis	DE					8	10.0	1.5%	0.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Leon Orr	DL					5	9.5	1.4%	2.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Jordan Sherit	RUSH	6'4, 250	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9063	9	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Jay-nard Bostwick	DL					5	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Thomas Holley	DE	6'3, 312	RSFr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9628
Taven Bryan	DT	6'5, 292	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8657
Khairi Clark	DT	6'2, 321	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9226
Justus Reed	RUSH	6'3, 234	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8476
CeCe Jefferson	DE	6'1, 275	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9951
Jabari Zuniga	DE	6'3, 263	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8604

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Antonio Morrison	MLB	6'1, 229	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8916	12	65.5	9.7%	6.0	1.0	1	1	1	0
Michael Taylor	MLB					11	42.5	6.3%	5.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Neiron Ball	SLB					9	32.5	4.8%	3.0	2.0	0	1	1	0
Jarrad Davis	WLB	6'2, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8681	9	17.0	2.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Harrell (Ga. Tech)	MLB	6'2, 237	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8360	13	16.5	2.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Alex Anzalone	WLB	6'3, 244	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9734	12	10.0	1.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Daniel McMillian	SLB	6'1, 219	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9729	6	8.0	1.2%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jeremi Powell	SLB	6'0, 219	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9147	7	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Matt Rolin	MLB	6'3, 216	So.	5 stars (5.8)	0.9320
R.J. Raymond	MLB	6'2, 236	RSFr.	NR	NR

7. Wanted: a pass rush

Five members of the front seven made at least four non-sack tackles for loss. The Gators put together a solid 22.7 percent stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line). Three of the five return: tackles Jonathan Bullard and Caleb Brantley and middle linebacker Antonio Morrison [Morrison's injury situation is still a major mystery]. Combine them with backup tackles Joey Ivie, exciting redshirt freshman Taven Bryan and safeties Marcus Maye and Keanu Neal, and you can see one hell of a backbone.

So ... what about the edges? Florida's defense was fine without a strong pass rush, but the Gators did have Dante Fowler Jr.'s occasional brilliance (and I do mean occasional; he had 9.5 tackles for loss against Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, and East Carolina and 5.5 in the other eight games).

With Fowler now a Jacksonville Jaguar, Collins will rely on ends Bryan Cox Jr. and Alex McCalister to generate pressure, along with all-world freshman CeCe Jefferson.

Perhaps a change of scheme will help Florida linebackers. They flowed to the ball, but they had minimal disruptive presence, and now two-thirds of last year's starters are gone. The ends might be able to create a good pass rush by themselves, but Collins will almost certainly attempt to blitz and force the quarterback's hand. When you've got this secondary, you can take chances.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Marcus Maye	S	6'0, 207	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9487	11	50.0	7.4%	3	0	1	5	2	0
Jabari Gorman	S					12	45.5	6.7%	2	0	1	6	1	0
Vernon Hargreaves III	CB	5'11, 199	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9979	12	40.5	6.0%	2	0	3	13	0	0
Brian Poole	CB	5'10, 211	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9721	12	35.0	5.2%	3	0	4	10	2	0
Keanu Neal	S	6'1, 216	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9476	10	35.0	5.2%	1	0	3	4	1	1
Jalen Tabor	CB	6'0, 191	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9923	12	26.5	3.9%	4	2	1	8	1	0
Quincy Wilson	CB	6'1, 209	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8821	12	19.0	2.8%	1	0	1	3	1	0
Duke Dawson	S	5'10, 204	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9191	11	12.0	1.8%	1	0	1	1	0	0
Marcell Harris	S	6'1, 211	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9636	12	5.5	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nick Washington	S	6'0, 195	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9183	12	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Deiondre Porter	S	6'0, 177	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8244
Chris Williamson	CB	5'11, 188	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8761

8. You better be able to run on Florida

Maybe you'll be able to attack unproven OLBs with your ground game. Or maybe you'll be able to counterpunch against a hyper-aggressive front and run your mobile quarterback.

Or maybe you'll just succumb to Florida's secondary and hope your defense can stop the Gators' offense. With mostly freshmen and sophomores and an inconsistent pass rush, Florida ranked 10th in Passing Success Rate+ and 15th in Passing S&P+ last year. That speaks volumes about what this unit could become now that Vernon Hargreaves III, Marcus Maye, and Keanu Neal are juniors and Jalen Tabor, Quincy Wilson, Duke Dawson, and Marcell Harris are sophomores.

May and Neal did a nice job both making and preventing plays, but the corners are the stars. Hargreaves might be the best corner in college football, and he combined with Brian Poole and Tabor to pick off eight passes, break up 31 more, and log nine tackles for loss.

Pick your poison. Or stick to the ground. It at least might work.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Kyle Christy			64	44.3	7	17	22	60.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Austin Hardin	5'10, 198	Jr.	70	63.3	20	3	28.6%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Francisco Velez			30-31	11-13	84.6%	1-1	100.0%
Austin Hardin	5'10, 198	Jr.	12-12	3-3	100.0%	4-7	57.1%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Andre Debose	KR			21	24.7	0
Valdez Showers	KR	6'0, 193	Sr.	6	15.2	0
Andre Debose	PR			23	14.0	1
Demarcus Robinson	PR	6'1, 204	Jr.	3	0.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	24
Field Goal Efficiency	28
Punt Return Efficiency	22
Kick Return Efficiency	38
Punt Efficiency	83
Kickoff Efficiency	39
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	91

9. Few worries in special teams, believe it or not

In Florida's most frustrating losses, special teams implosion was a common theme, from kick and punt coverage against Missouri to blocked kicks against South Carolina to missed field goals against FSU. What made these even more frustrating is how good Florida special teams was the rest of the year. Despite miscues, UF ranked 24th in overall special teams efficiency, with only punt coverage a consistent sore spot.

Florida does have to deal with some turnover. Longtime return man Andre Debose is gone, as are Kyle Christy (who had a booming leg and sometimes outkicked his coverage) and short-kicks place-kicker Francisco Velez. Austin Hardin made four of seven field goals of 40-plus, so place-kicking appears to be in good hands (feet?).

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
5-Sep	New Mexico State	127
12-Sep	East Carolina	80
19-Sep	at Kentucky	52
26-Sep	Tennessee	20
3-Oct	Ole Miss	6
10-Oct	at Missouri	23
17-Oct	at LSU	8
31-Oct	vs. Georgia	3
7-Nov	Vanderbilt	83
14-Nov	at South Carolina	31
21-Nov	Florida Atlantic	101
28-Nov	Florida State	17

Five-Year F/+ Rk	25.3% (23)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	13 / 8
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	6 / 12.7
2014 TO Luck/Game	-2.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	8 (2, 6)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	8.0 (-1.0)

10. Start fast

Any time you talk about a team with good recruiting and a new coach, it's easy to find yourself talking the squad up. They're going to be back soon! The new guy will coax out the potential!

It's almost a good thing Florida's offense is starting from scratch, as it will keep expectations tamped down. But with this defense, the O needs only to be competent for UF to be an incredibly dangerous team. That was the case each of the last two years, but a new staff and new personnel represent opportunity.

Florida fans should expect a frustrating, encouraging fall. The Gators are just a few line injuries away from playing a ton of freshmen in the trenches, but if the lines remain semi-healthy, the Gators could be good enough to take down Ole Miss or Florida State at home or Missouri or South Carolina. They could also be inconsistent enough to lose to Kentucky on the road or Tennessee.

The upcoming Football Outsiders Almanac 2015 gives the Gators a 56 percent chance of going 6-6 or 7-5, a 14 percent chance of doing better, and a 30 percent chance of doing worse. I could see eight wins, but 2015 is about 2016 and beyond.

Figure out what you've got on offense, figure out your next generation on defense, win a big game or two, and win the fans back.