I worried about Tennessee being too hyped, but the Vols might actually be underrated

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1. How far, and how fast?

It's not hard to understand the infatuation.

1. According to the 247Sports Composite, Tennessee head coach Butch Jones signed the No. 7 class in the country in 2014 and the No. 4 class in 2015. Those include 32 four- or five-star recruits.
   
   
2. According to F/+ ratings, Tennessee's 2014 team was its best since 2007. The bar isn't high -- the Vols had managed only one top-40 finish in that span -- but progress in Jones' second season was undeniable.

Combine that with Tennessee's name-brand reputation, which tends to result in a race to proclaim a team "BACK," and a great bowl performance, which tends to result in an artificial bump in the preseason polls, and I assumed the Vols would be ranked far too high to start 2015. Like, top-15 high.

In fact, I wrote about the dreaded bowl bump and its harmful effects after Tennessee's bowl win.

Offseason perceptions matter more than they should. A top-30 performance in 2015, which would be accompanied by about eight wins or so, would represent another step forward for Jones. But if we set the bar higher than that and make improvement seem disappointing, that's unfair.

So consider me pleasantly surprised that the pollsters are tapping the brakes. The Vols ranked 25th in the preseason coaches poll; in the SEC hierarchy, that puts them behind Arkansas and Missouri and ahead of Mississippi State and Texas A&M. And it nearly matches their projected No. 26 ranking in the upcoming Football Outsiders Almanac 2015. It is a fair spot, and Jones' Vols will have a chance to exceed expectations.

Jones has used every recruiting trick in the book to bring talent to Knoxville, and he and his staff have proved capable of putting it in position to succeed. For a young team, the Vols weren't particularly volatile last year, and that could say good things as the quality of the product improves.

We're just waiting to see how quickly the product improves. You won't continue to sign top-five classes without affirming your direction on the field, and the hurdles don't end after a 7-6 season. Jones is eschewing some development and five-year depth (quite a few of last year's signees have already left) in exchange for getting uncut talent onto the field. In theory, that could work, but it could cause problems if growth isn't quick enough to maintain recruiting.

The bar is set in a fair place for 2015. The upside is immense, but the Vols are a couple of injuries away from being too young to rise, and the schedule presents countless opportunities for breakthrough wins and discouraging losses.

It's going to be an interesting season in Knoxville.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 24
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
31-Aug	Utah State	52	38-7	W	99%	55.2	100%
6-Sep	Arkansas State	66	34-19	W	80%	19.6	70%
13-Sep	at Oklahoma	19	10-34	L	27%	-14.3	0%
27-Sep	at Georgia	4	32-35	L	81%	20.5	38%
4-Oct	Florida	32	9-10	L	70%	12.2	37%
11-Oct	Chattanooga	N/A	45-10	W	96%	40.7	100%
18-Oct	at Ole Miss	5	3-34	L	18%	-21.8	0%
25-Oct	Alabama	2	20-34	L	51%	0.7	2%
1-Nov	at South Carolina	38	45-42	W	70%	12.0	60%
15-Nov	Kentucky	68	50-16	W	99%	53.7	100%
22-Nov	Missouri	20	21-29	L	51%	0.4	15%
29-Nov	at Vanderbilt	115	24-17	W	56%	3.3	75%
2-Jan	vs. Iowa	63	45-28	W	99%	57.8	100%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	32.5	40	18.3	12
Points Per Game	28.9	65	24.2	36

2. We probably shouldn't overstate the improvement

Using the percentiles above, there are two ways to look at Tennessee's 2014. First, there's the overarching narrative: Tennessee was scuffling along until Joshua Dobbs took over at quarterback against Alabama, and then the Vols took a big step forward.

That is true ... to a degree.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 8 games): 65% (~top 45 | record: 3-5)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 5 games): 75% (~top 30 | record: 4-1)

Tennessee went from averaging 4.4 yards per play without Dobbs to 5.5 with him. However:

1. There were still a couple of duds (4.1 combined yards per play against a good Missouri defense and a bad Vandy defense).
   
   
2. A lot of those yards came against South Carolina, Kentucky, and Iowa, which had defenses outside the Def. S&P+ top 50.
   
   
3. The defense grew leaky. After allowing 4.7 yards per play through seven games, UT allowed 6.1 in the final six. South Carolina averaged 8.6, Iowa 6.4 (though a lot of Iowa's damage came in garbage time). A thin D didn't have a ton to offer good offenses and faded.

If we turn the prism, we see a team that maybe didn't improve or regress, but just did far better against lesser teams.

• Average Percentile Performance (vs. F/+ top 20): 46% (~top 70 | record: 0-5)
• Average Percentile Performance (vs. No. 21-plus): 84% (~top 20 | record: 7-1)

Almost everybody produces better results against worst teams, yes, but Tennessee seemed far more reliant than most on a talent advantage. The Vols got drubbed by Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Alabama, and couldn't hardly move the football against Missouri. They maybe beat Georgia without an untimely quarterback injury, but for the most part, they didn't have enough to compete against really good teams.

Lesser teams could offer little resistance. The Vols let a tossup against Florida slip away and sleep-walked over Vandy, but they sliced through bad defenses late in the year, and bad offenses couldn't pretend to move the football early on.

This is a surprise, considering how young Tennessee was. And while it probably means the Volunteers are going to be limited against a schedule that features four teams projected 12th or better, it could mean they handle business against just about every other team.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.80	91	IsoPPP+	110.3	44
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.6%	65	Succ. Rt. +	104.2	54
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.0	30	Def. FP+	105.0	20
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	76	Redzone S&P+	95.7	76
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.0		ACTUAL	22	+1.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	93	41	38	44
RUSHING	92	33	27	39
PASSING	71	47	42	54
Standard Downs		34	29	42
Passing Downs		44	44	50

Q1 Rk	38	1st Down Rk	43
Q2 Rk	24	2nd Down Rk	40
Q3 Rk	64	3rd Down Rk	74
Q4 Rk	72

3. Great at nothing, bad at nothing

It's hard to use full-season numbers to judge the Tennessee offense, considering the turnover at quarterback.

Justin Worley began as UT's starter, and Jones intended to redshirt true sophomore Dobbs. But Worley got hurt and struggled, and backup Nathan Peterman didn't inspire much confidence. So Dobbs' redshirt was torn off midway, and while his numbers were in no way eye-popping, they were better than Worley's and Peterman's.

It's still pretty impressive to see UT's rankings above. The Vols were between about 27th and 55th in almost every category. They created good field position for their defense (with help from good punts and kickoffs) and struggled to finish drives in the end zone, and in just out every other category they were above average.

That's encouraging. Dobbs was a sophomore, running back Jalen Hurd was a freshman, and freshmen combined to start 20 games on the line. Then-junior Pig Howard led the way in the receiving corps, but it was virtually freshmen and sophomores after him.

With reasonable year-to-year improvement, this offense could go from being above average at everything to being good at everything.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Justin Worley					157	252	1579	12	8	62.3%	28	10.0%	4.9
Joshua Dobbs	6'3, 212	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9276	112	177	1206	9	6	63.3%	12	6.3%	5.9
Nathan Peterman					10	20	49	0	0	50.0%	2	9.1%	1.2
Quinten Dormady	6'4, 213	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9029
Jauan Jennings	6'4, 202	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9257

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Jalen Hurd	RB	6'3, 230	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9793	190	899	5	4.7	3.9	38.9%	1	1
Joshua Dobbs	QB	6'3, 212	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9276	92	551	8	6.0	4.6	54.3%	4	2
Marlin Lane	RB					86	300	1	3.5	4.3	23.3%	2	1
Justus Pickett	RB					22	64	0	2.9	1.8	22.7%	0	0
Justin Worley	QB					17	97	3	5.7	2.0	64.7%	5	3
Pig Howard	WR	5'8, 187	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9063	15	96	2	6.4	3.3	66.7%	0	0
Deanthonie Summerhill	RB					15	41	0	2.7	0.6	26.7%	0	0
Derrell Scott	RB					11	40	0	3.6	4.0	36.4%	0	0
Devrin Young	RB					10	49	0	4.9	1.8	60.0%	1	0
Von Pearson	WR	6'3, 187	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9292	8	27	0	3.4	1.8	25.0%	0	0
Nathan Peterman	QB					7	35	1	5.0	2.4	71.4%	1	0
RD Abernathy IV (Cincinnati)	RB	5'7, 161	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8047	132	511	5	3.9	3.7	32.6%	N/A	N/A
Alvin Kamara	RB	5'11, 210	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9760

4. Nobody. Get. Hurt.

If Dobbs has to miss time, Tennessee's probably playing a true freshman at quarterback. If Hurd gets hurt, it's JUCO transfer Alvin Kamara (a former Alabama signee) or bust. Through both graduation and transfer, UT has lost almost all of last year's backfield two-deep beyond these two, and all bets are off if either or both go down, particularly Dobbs.

You could do worse than hanging your hopes on these two. Dobbs isn't an incredible playmaker, but he's mature for his experience level and has shown he can manage a game pretty well and make plays when he needs to (just ask South Carolina). He's got plenty of growing to do -- in nine games against teams not named Kentucky, he has a passer rating over 125 just twice -- but there's no reason to assume he won't grow.

Hurd passes the eyeball test. He's a mean runner, and he grew into the go-to role. After averaging a paltry 4.2 yards per carry through seven games, he averaged 5.5 in the final six. He had 21 carries for 125 yards against South Carolina and 16 for 122 against Iowa.

Hurd's a bit of a 'tweener: he's not efficient enough to be valuable without explosiveness. Of the 54 FBS running backs with at least 190 carries last year, he ranked 33rd in opportunity rate (percentage of carries gaining at least five yards) and 48th in highlight yards per opportunity (basically, the magnitude of his successful carries). He was a freshman, sure, but 22 of the 54 players on this 190-carry list were freshmen and sophomores, and others graded out much better.

Line play was an ongoing issue, and while he wasn't breaking off 50-yarders when the line did its job, that probably prevented him from establishing much of a rhythm. Plus, it probably isn't a coincidence that his numbers improved when Dobbs took over. Dobbs' mobility gave opponents one more thing to account for, and it took eyes off of Hurd.

With Hurd and Dobbs back and the line more experienced, it's safe to assume the run game will improve.

What about the passing game? Hard to say. Virtually every wideout and tight end returns (sans senior Von Pearson, who might not), but despite epic recruiting rankings, nobody was much of a downfield threat. Coordinator Mike Bajakian aimed for efficiency over explosiveness and sometimes got it.

With Bajakian leaving for a spot with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jones replaced him with veteran Mike DeBord, a pro-style coach's pro-style coach. DeBord was the play-caller for Michigan's 1997 national title run and spent five seasons as an NFL assistant and two as a Michigan administrator.

If you've got the talent, an old-school, pro-style (whatever that means at this point) approach can work. And perhaps it means more play-action opportunities for receivers to stretch the field.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Pig Howard	WR	5'8, 187	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9063	83	54	618	65.1%	19.5%	55.4%	7.4	-33	7.4	86.2
Marquez North	WR	6'4, 224	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9575	53	30	320	56.6%	12.4%	47.2%	6.0	-52	5.9	44.6
Von Pearson	WR	6'3, 187	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9292	46	38	393	82.6%	10.8%	71.7%	8.5	-47	8.7	54.7
Josh Malone	WR	6'3, 198	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9818	46	23	231	50.0%	10.8%	63.0%	5.0	-62	5.1	32.2
Jalen Hurd	RB	6'3, 230	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9793	41	35	221	85.4%	9.6%	46.3%	5.4	-182	5.3	30.8
Jason Croom	WR	6'5, 235	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9122	35	21	305	60.0%	8.2%	51.4%	8.7	48	8.8	42.5
Ethan Wolf	TE	6'5, 240	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8890	32	23	212	71.9%	7.5%	56.3%	6.6	-60	6.7	29.5
Josh Smith	WR	6'1, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8210	15	10	135	66.7%	3.5%	60.0%	9.0	15	9.0	18.8
Johnathon Johnson	WR	5'9, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8400	15	10	117	66.7%	3.5%	66.7%	7.8	-3	7.5	16.3
Daniel Helm	TE					15	6	37	40.0%	3.5%	40.0%	2.5	-44	2.2	5.2
Marlin Lane	RB					14	11	78	78.6%	3.3%	78.6%	5.6	-50	4.8	10.9
Alex Ellis	TE	6'4, 236	Sr.	NR	NR	9	6	115	66.7%	2.1%	55.6%	12.8	43	12.9	16.0
Vic Wharton	WR					8	5	64	62.5%	1.9%	75.0%	8.0	3	6.1	8.9
Devrin Young	RB					5	4	31	80.0%	1.2%	60.0%	6.2	-16	6.1	4.3
Cody Blanc	WR	6'3, 202	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8327
A.J. Branisel	TE	6'4, 237	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8503
Neiko Creamer	TE	6'3, 233	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8584
Preston Williams	WR	6'4, 180	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9763

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	110.4	3.05	3.2	40.4%	58.1%	21.3%	69.5	5.4%	13.6%
Rank	32	52	74	52	116	96	118	81	126

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Marcus Jackson (injury)	LG	6'2, 308	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9011	17
Kyler Kerbyson	LT	6'4, 317	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8839	13
Jashon Robertson	RG	6'3, 310	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8625	13
Mack Crowder	C	6'2, 290	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8600	12
Jacob Gilliam	RT					7
Coleman Thomas	C	6'6, 308	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8584	5
Brett Kendrick	RT	6'6, 308	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8296	2
Dylan Wiesman	LG	6'3, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8352	2
Austin Sanders	LG	6'5, 307	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8793	0
Dontavius Blair	LT	6'8, 295	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9099	0
Charles Mosley	OL	6'5, 350	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8948
Ray Raulerson	OL	6'5, 279	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8472
Drew Richmond	OL	6'5, 310	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9732
Jack Jones	RT	6'5, 289	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9404
Chance Hall	RG	6'5, 317	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8585
Venzell Boulware	OL	6'3, 303	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8837
Zach Stewart	OL	6'4, 310	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8649

5. The OL will determine UT's fate

Adjusting for opponent, Tennessee's line may not have been as bad as we thought. The Vols did have to face Georgia and Missouri from the SEC East, Alabama and Ole Miss from the West, and Oklahoma in non-conference play. There's a lot to account for in that group of defensive fronts.

Still, despite a big running back, the Vols stunk in short-yardage and allowed defenders into the backfield, run or pass. They ranked 96th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), and only two teams were worse at preventing passing downs sacks: UCLA and Navy. Dobbs' mobility helped tamp the sack rates down, but he was still sacked nine times by Missouri (six) and Vanderbilt (three).

[Update: Starting left guard Marcus Jackson is likely lost for the year to injury.]

The line's improvement could determine everything from whether Dobbs gets hurt to if Tennessee is able to move the ball against a defense like Alabama's, Georgia's, or Florida's. The experience is far better -- the Vols entered 2014 with six career starts and enter 2015 with 64 -- and now we just have to find out about development.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.85	69	IsoPPP+	122.3	17
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	36.8%	18	Succ. Rt. +	116.6	19
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	33.6	11	Off. FP+	107.1	10
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	101	Redzone S&P+	97.6	72
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.1		ACTUAL	24.0	+1.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	37	16	18	17
RUSHING	67	21	21	26
PASSING	23	11	18	14
Standard Downs		16	13	28
Passing Downs		18	38	13

Q1 Rk	6	1st Down Rk	9
Q2 Rk	53	2nd Down Rk	39
Q3 Rk	10	3rd Down Rk	23
Q4 Rk	91

6. Significant improvement, top to bottom

The offense still has worries. Injuries could wreck the backfield, and we don't know how much the line will improve or what DeBord will have to offer.

On defense, there are far fewer concerns. Tennessee improved from 77th in Def. S&P+ in Derek Dooley's final season to 43rd in 2013 and 12th in 2014, and the Vols return eight of the top nine linemen, six of seven linebackers, and eight of 11 defensive backs.

Tennessee did have a problem with closing drives, games, seasons, etc. The Vols ranked 72nd in Redzone S&P+, fell from sixth in Q1 S&P+ to 91st in Q4, and faded dramatically in November. Injuries played a role, but youth probably did, too: of the 22 returnees, 16 were freshmen or sophomores. Between increased experience and the presence of another crop of impressive freshmen, one assumes depth and closing will be less problematic.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	107.3	2.56	3.55	37.6%	59.1%	21.3%	153	6.3%	11.4%
Rank	37	21	85	48	20	38	6	33	14

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Derek Barnett	DE	6'3, 268	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9164	13	59.5	8.4%	20.5	10.0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Williams	DT					13	21.0	2.9%	4.0	2.0	0	4	0	0
Corey Vereen	DE	6'2, 253	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8678	13	19.5	2.7%	4.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Danny O'Brien	NT	6'2, 282	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9181	13	19.5	2.7%	4.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Owen Williams	NT	6'2, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8443	12	16.0	2.2%	2.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Jakob Johnson	DE	6'4, 240	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8582	12	11.0	1.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
LaTroy Lewis	DE	6'4, 260	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8798	13	7.0	1.0%	5.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
Trevarris Saulsberry	DT	6'4, 308	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8494	5	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dimarya Mixon	DT	6'3, 270	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8618	12	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jaylen Miller	DE					9	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Michael Sawyers	DT					4	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dewayne Hendrix	DE					7	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kendal Vickers	DT	6'3, 288	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7997
Kahlil McKenzie	DT	6'3, 327	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9968
Kyle Phillips	DE	6'4, 255	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9831
Shy Tuttle	DT	6'3, 315	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9738
Andrew Butcher	DE	6'2, 250	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9018
Darrell Taylor	DE	6'4, 228	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9004

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	WLB	6'1, 225	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9052	13	82.0	11.5%	11.0	2.0	1	0	0	0
A.J. Johnson	MLB					10	79.5	11.2%	9.0	2.0	1	2	2	0
Curt Maggitt	SLB/DE	6'3, 246	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9310	13	41.0	5.8%	15.0	11.0	0	0	1	0
Cortez McDowell	WLB	6'1, 227	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9235	13	14.5	2.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Chris Weatherd	SLB	6'4, 217	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8969	13	10.0	1.4%	3.0	2.5	0	1	0	0
Dillon Bates	LB	6'3, 225	RSFr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9536	4	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kenny Bynum	MLB	6'1, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8425	7	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Justin King	LB					13	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Elliott Berry	LB	6'0, 217	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8528
Gavin Bryant	LB	6'0, 236	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8976
Darrin Kirkland Jr.	LB	6'2, 235	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9271
Quart'e Sapp	LB	6'2, 200	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9077

7. A deep, well-rounded defensive front

Tennessee's front seven brings absurd recruiting rankings and proven production in a way few other teams can.

End Derek Barnett, linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin, and end/linebacker Curt Maggitt combined for 46.5 tackles for loss and 23 sacks. This is impressive both in its volume and its well-roundedness. This trio was good at getting to both quarterbacks and running backs behind the line.

The loss of underrated tackle Jordan Williams hurts, and it's hard to count on oft-injured Trevarris Saulsberry to remain healthy. But between Danny O'Brien, Owen Williams, and incoming blue-chippers Kahlil McKenzie and Shy Tuttle, it's hard to worry much about tackle.

Signs point to strong depth, which should bump Tennessee up from last year's No. 21 Rushing S&P+ ranking. And if you can't run against the Vols, good luck trying to fend off this pass rush.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Brian Randolph	SS	6'0, 208	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8590	13	76.5	10.7%	1.5	0	2	3	1	0
LaDarrell McNeil	FS	6'1, 206	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9554	13	61.0	8.6%	1.5	0	2	3	1	0
Justin Coleman	CB					13	36.5	5.1%	4	0	4	5	0	0
Cameron Sutton	CB	6'1, 189	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8625	13	34.0	4.8%	4	0	3	13	1	0
Todd Kelly Jr.	SS	6'0, 208	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9686	13	27.5	3.9%	0	0	3	2	0	0
Michael Williams	DB					10	20.5	2.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Emmanuel Moseley	CB	5'11, 175	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8464	13	17.0	2.4%	2	0	0	6	0	0
Malik Foreman	CB	5'10, 187	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8290	13	9.0	1.3%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Rashaan Gaulden	DB	6'1, 184	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8773	11	6.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Evan Berry	DB	5'11, 208	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8934	13	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Devaun Swafford	FS					13	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
D'Andre Payne	DB					8	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Justin Martin	CB	6'2, 173	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9069
Micah Abernathy	DB	6'0, 186	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.9082

8. Few worries in the back

Like Jordan Williams, corner Justin Coleman was a nice defensive piece, capable of making plays near to and far from the line of scrimmage. But when he's basically all you lose from a secondary that was pretty good, it's easy to be optimistic, especially considering Barnett and Maggitt are still in uniform.

Tennessee's pass D was wonderfully well-rounded: top 10 in sack rates, top 20 in efficiency, top 20 in big-play prevention. The former and latter are in good hands. Senior safeties Brian Randolph and LaDarrell McNeil are both back, as is blue-chip sophomore Todd Kelly Jr.

The efficiency piece could be determined by Coleman's replacement, likely one of two sophomores: Emmanuel Moseley or Justin Martin. Moseley showed prime ball skills in limited opportunities, and Martin is a four-star JUCO. Either could team with active-as-hell junior Cameron Sutton to form a nice tandem.

And if you've got Barnett and potentially Maggitt at end, a nice batch of tackles, a couple playmakers at linebacker, steady seniors at safety, and major activity at cornerback ... well ... where's the weakness in this defense?

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Matt Darr			80	42.2	11	30	30	75.0%
Nathan Renfro (Maryland)	6'1, 205	Sr.	84	41.5	9	22	21	51.2%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Aaron Medley	6'2, 189	So.	63	60.1	15	1	23.8%
George Bullock	6'0, 210	Jr.	10	60.9	2	0	20.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Aaron Medley	6'2, 189	So.	42-43	19-20	95.0%	1-6	16.7%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Evan Berry	KR	5'11, 208	So.	14	29.5	0
Devrin Young	KR			13	21.5	0
Cameron Sutton	PR	6'1, 189	Jr.	14	11.3	1
Jacob Carter	PR			8	6.9	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	15
Field Goal Efficiency	45
Punt Return Efficiency	35
Kick Return Efficiency	56
Punt Efficiency	55
Kickoff Efficiency	10
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	96

9. Nailing all the basics

UT's special teams unit was a lot like the offense, with few true strengths and no weaknesses. Kick coverage was excellent despite few touchbacks, but the Vols ranked between 35th and 56th in every other category above.

Cameron Sutton returned a punt for a touchdown, Aaron Medley made just about every kick under 40 yards, Evan Berry was explosive (if not consistent) in kick returns. This wasn't LSU-level special teams, but it was good.

The Vols break in a new punter, likely Maryland transfer Nathan Renfro, but return everybody else. Hard to consider that a bad thing.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
5-Sep	vs. Bowling Green	94
12-Sep	Oklahoma	10
19-Sep	Western Carolina	NR
26-Sep	at Florida	29
3-Oct	Arkansas	12
10-Oct	Georgia	3
24-Oct	at Alabama	1
31-Oct	at Kentucky	52
7-Nov	South Carolina	31
14-Nov	North Texas	125
21-Nov	at Missouri	23
28-Nov	Vanderbilt	83

Five-Year F/+ Rk	9.0% (45)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	6 / 13
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	2 / 1.2
2014 TO Luck/Game	+0.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	17 (9, 8)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	7.0 (0.0)

10. Test after test

It's not hard to talk yourself into Tennessee. The Vols return a ton of starters, welcome another scary recruiting class, and proved enough that predictions aren't based wholly in potential. Ranking this team in the 20s feels safe, but the teens aren't far off.

When it comes to making an SEC East run or posting a high win total, however, the schedule will probably keep expectations tamped down. With a No. 26 projection in the Football Outsiders Almanac 2015, the Vols are given only a 25 percent chance of winning more than eight games and a 46 percent chance of winning seven or fewer.

By October 25, Tennessee will have hosted Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Georgia and traveled to Florida (here's your reminder that the Gators have beaten the Vols 10 consecutive times) and Alabama. The schedule eases up but still includes visits to Kentucky and a Missouri that has yet to lose to Tennessee since joining the SEC.

It's probably too much to ask that Tennessee make some serious run in 2015. Any backfield injury could have serious repercussions. We'll see if their on-field production can remain at a level that can sustain top-10 recruiting, and without going into too much detail, other issues could (justifiably) threaten to prevent a rise.

But Tennessee is going to be strong and could be on one hell of a trajectory.