Season record: 9-8 (53 percent) | Week 1
1. Miami at Florida Atlantic Under 55.5 points: Miami's defense continues to be a strength, despite all the hype around Brad Kaaya, and several of Miami's receivers got banged up in Week 1. If there is a worry here, it is the pace with which FAU operates.
2. Utah State at Utah Under 44.5 points: Utah State's defense is worlds ahead of its offense, and Utah's offense is solid but unspectacular. The worry is if the Aggies turn the football over, leading to defensive scores or short fields for the Utes.
3. LSU -4 at Mississippi State: LSU should be fresh by virtue of not playing last Saturday, and I am not a believer in this Mississippi State team after it lost a ton of experience.
4 and 5. Oregon at Michigan State -3 and Over 67 points: The weakest unit in this game appears to be Oregon's defense, which couldn't tackle in Week 1. If this game were later in the season, I probably would not make the wager, but Vernon Adams has had very little time in the Oregon system. Meanwhile, Oregon has ridiculous skill talent and should be able to put up points. I have it Michigan State 45, Oregon 35.
6. Oklahoma PK at Tennessee: Tennessee's pass defense is suspect, and I have faith in new Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield. I am high on the Vols, having covered many of their recruits, but think they are perhaps a year away. The crowd noise and defensive ends for Tennessee could help, though.
7. USF at Florida State Under 54 points: Florida State scored 59 points in Week 1, but USF's defensive front is much better than Texas State's. I don't think USF's offense is anywhere near as good as its score indicated against FAMU.
8. Houston +14 at Louisville: This means much more to Houston, and it will be tough to get the Cardinals to get up for it after the emotional loss to Auburn. In addition, Louisville will play Clemson just five days after, making it an obvious look-ahead spot.
Just want big games? Dan Rubenstein and his friend guacamole predict the five biggest.
9. Appalachian State +18 at Clemson: I like Clemson's offense a lot, but believe the Tigers will mix in some Louisville looks in practice this week, because they go on the road to Louisville on short rest.
10. Fresno State at Ole Miss Under 55.5 points: Fresno State struggled to move the ball against an FCS school in Week 1, and Ole Miss has a major look-ahead situation with Alabama on deck, so I don't believe it will keep its starters in long.
11. Temple at Cincinnati -6.5: Temple has a good defense, but I believe it is overrated a bit after posting 10 sacks against Penn State, as many do not realize how poorly Penn State blocked. It is not often I get to fade a mid-major, but this is a good opportunity. Temple is ripe for a letdown.
12. Marshall at Ohio +3.5: Marshall beat a Big Ten team, Purdue, and will be prime for a letdown in Athens. The Bobcats have an experienced offensive line and secondary, and controlling the ball and denying big plays is key against the Thundering Herd.
13 and 14. Western Michigan at Georgia Southern +5 and Under 54.5 points: Georgia Southern lost 44-0 in Week 1, but that margin was in part due to five turnovers. Look for the Eagles to bounce back in their home opener, even without their starting QB.
15. Rice +15.5 at Texas: Texas is a mess on offense and young in the secondary, and Rice has a competent offense.
16. San Diego State at Cal -13: San Diego State was the beneficiary of a plus-five turnover margin in Week 1.
17. Wake Forest +5 at Syracuse: I simply think Wake Forest is the better team, and Syracuse lots its starting QB for the year due to an injury.
18. Missouri at Arkansas State +11.5 : Arkansas State was a bit unlucky with turnovers last weekend, ending up minus-four, and that helped to widen USC's eventual margin. Look for Arkansas State to keep Missouri behind the chains.
19. Georgia at Vanderbilt Under 51 points: Some value on this is gone, as it opened at 56, but Vanderbilt's offense is awful, and both of these teams have better defenses than offenses.
20. Boise State -2 at BYU: BYU won a game it should have lost due to a Hail Mary, and Boise State, thanks to ridiculously poor special teams, failed to cover a game it should have easily covered. Betting against Week 1 overreactions.
21. Oregon State at Michigan -16: Michigan had some unfortunate turnovers at Utah, and the crowd will be jacked up for the home opener. I look for Michigan to hold Oregon State's offense down and score in the 30s.
22. Toledo at Arkansas Under 56 points: Toledo has one of the youngest offensive lines in the country, and running back Kareem Hunt is still suspended.
23. Tulsa +4 at New Mexico: Tulsa's run defense is atrocious, and New Mexico is a strong running team, but there is value due to the turnover differential illusion: Tulsa was minus-four in Week 1 while New Mexico was plus-three.
24. UTEP +21 at Texas Tech: The Red Raiders were plus-three in turnovers last week, and UTEP was minus-three. Turnovers have a large luck component, which is probably pushing this spread to three touchdowns, and the Red Raiders have Arkansas on deck, making this a look-ahead spot.
25. Kansas State at UTSA Under 52.5 points: Kansas State's defense is way more disciplined than the Arizona squad that allowed a very young UTSA to score in bunches last week.
26. Memphis at Kansas Under 62.5 points: KU put up almost 300 rushing yards in Week 1 against an FCS defense. It won't crack 100 against Memphis.
27. Howard at Boston College Under 58.5 points: Boston College has an underrated defense and is still a long way from being right on offense.
28. Nicholls State at ULM Under 57 points: ULM's defense isn't bad, and its offense is really a mess up front.
Quick thoughts ...Tulane +28.5 at Georgia Tech was tempting, but Tulane simply cannot score. I wanted 10+ to take Kentucky at South Carolina, and it wasn't available at the time of this column.