Season record: 37-32 (54 percent) Week 3
1. Boise State at Virginia +3: Virginia plays solid defense and I do not trust this Boise State offense to go on the road with a backup QB and get the win.
2. BYU at Michigan -4.5: Another backup QB traveling to face a strong defense. Look for Michigan to lean on its defense and run the football a lot.
3. Southern Miss +22.5 at Nebraska: Nebraska is coming off a crushing overtime loss at Miami and is ripe for a hangover game against a Golden Eagles squad that can put up a lot of points.
4. Missouri at Kentucky -2.5: An unranked team favored over a ranked team is historically an auto-wager for me. Kentucky's defense should be able to hold down Missouri's offense.
5. Texas State +16.5 at Houston: Could Houston be more popular right now? Tom Herman is about as celebrity as a mid-major coach can be, the Cougars are hot, and Texas State can score. If you can find +17, make it your best bet of the week.
6. Georgia Tech -8 at Duke: Duke does not have the defensive talent to shut down Georgia Tech like Notre Dame did. The worry here is a hangover for the Yellow Jackets after the collapse in South Bend.
7. Florida International +14.5 at Louisiana Tech: The Bulldogs took Kansas State to triple overtime before folding, but Florida International is not quite as bad as some think. This is a prime hangover spot for Louisiana Tech.
Just want picks of the five biggest games?
8. Tennessee -1 at Florida: This one is simple. I do not trust the Gators' struggling offensive line to block Tennessee's talented defensive front.
9. LSU -24 at Syracuse: Everything about this says I should not. Syracuse's defense is not bad. LSU has no inspiration to dominate here. But I see the Orange offense consistently giving LSU good field position.
10. UMass +29 at Notre Dame: This is a major sandwich spot for the Irish, who beat a good Georgia Tech team and now have Clemson on deck. UMass has a decent defense that could get a few stops if Notre Dame overlooks the Minutemen.
11. TCU at Texas Tech +7: I wish Tech had not won last weekend at Arkansas, because I was already planning to bet the Red Raiders here and would have assuredly received +10. Nonetheless, I did not buy TCU as a top-5 team entering the year and absolutely do not now after losing some key defensive starters.
12. Marshall at Kent State +7: I do not trust Marshall backup QB Chase Litton and Kent State has a decent MAC defense.
13. Northern Illinois +5 at Boston College: Northern Illinois can really throw the football and an outright upset over an Eagles team without its stating QB would not be a surprise.
14. Oklahoma State at Texas +3.5: If Texas leans on Jerrod Heard's legs from the QB position it can upset Oklahoma State.
15. USC at Arizona State +6: Will USC be able to get in gear after its Stanford loss? This is a clash of styles over two weeks, going from Stanford's slow smashmouth offense to the Sun Devil's up-tempo spread.
16. Ball State +20.5 at Northwestern: If Ball State can get to 14 points, I think it can cover here because Northwestern is playing strong defense but its offense is not great.
17. California -4 at Washington: Cal's offense has been more impressive to me than Washington's defense, though the back-to-back road trips (Cal was at Texas last weekend) is a bit of a scare.