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Updated bowl projections, with an Ole Miss/Ohio State/UCLA/Baylor Playoff

Your weekly list of guesses for every bowl and Playoff game as we enter a loaded Week 5.

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Hello! How are you today? I'm fine, thanks, and have just put some bowl game thoughts below for you to look at.

The weekly College Football Playoff swapping of Notre Dame and UCLA continues here. The Bruins had an easier time at No. 16 Arizona than the banged-up Fighting Irish did at home against UMass, and ND's marquee win against Georgia Tech doesn't look like much after Duke beat the Yellow Jackets as well. UCLA beat Virginia more convincingly too, FWIW. That's not worth much.

The Bruins still have three tough road trips (Stanford, Utah, USC) to go, so they're still the shakiest Playoff inclusion. And the Rebels struggled with Vanderbilt, but we're just gonna have to get used to good teams struggling with Vanderbilt.

It's easy to expect big changes next Sunday, with Alabama-Georgia and Notre Dame-Clemson just the two biggest games in what's easily the biggest weekend of the season so far. But for now, here's where we are.

College Football Playoff
National Championship Ole Miss Ohio State January 11 Glendale, AZ Cotton winner vs. Orange winner
Cotton No. 2 Ohio State No.3 UCLA December 31 Arlington, TX Playoff rankings top 4
Orange No. 1 Ole Miss No. 4 Baylor December 31 Miami, FL Playoff rankings top 4

New Year's Six bowls
Fiesta Houston Notre Dame January 1 Glendale, AZ At-large
Rose Michigan State Utah January 1 Pasadena, CA Big Ten 1 vs. Pac-12 1
Sugar Oklahoma Alabama January 1 New Orleans, LA Big 12 1 vs. SEC 1
Peach Clemson Texas A&M December 31 Atlanta, GA At-large

The Utes make the big move up this week, replacing Oregon. This spot could go to Cal, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, or USC, but the Utes have a humiliating road win over the Ducks, get the Bears and Bruins at home and likely avoid the Cardinal altogether. Utah's Michigan win should end up looking excellent to the Playoff committee, which helps arrange these bowls as well.

The American broke even on the week (East Carolina upset Virginia Tech, but SMU fell to James Madison), while the MAC gained ground with Bowling Green's win at Purdue. But I still think the AAC champ has the best shot, and Houston's schedule remains friendly.

Would like to get Leonard Fournette in here, but A&M has the less-grueling schedule ... and LSU's quarterback did just duel pretty evenly with Syracuse's fifth-stringer.

Bowl (* = filling another conference's bid) Conferences ties, not based on standings
Alamo TCU Oregon January 2 San Antonio, TX Big 12 2 vs. Pac-12 2
Cactus Texas Tech Arizona January 2 Tempe, AZ Big 12 6 vs. Pac-12 7
Liberty Oklahoma State Kentucky January 2 Memphis, TN Big 12 5 vs. SEC 3-8
TaxSlayer Penn State Florida January 2 Jacksonville, FL ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8
Citrus Michigan Georgia January 1 Orlando, FL Big Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 2
Outback Nebraska LSU January 1 Tampa, FL Big Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 3-8
Belk Duke Tennessee December 30 Charlotte, NC ACC 3-6 vs. SEC 3-8
Birmingham Memphis Akron* December 30 Birmingham, AL American vs. SEC 9
Holiday Wisconsin USC December 30 San Diego, CA Big Ten 2-4 vs. Pac-12 3
Music City Virginia Tech Mississippi State December 30 Nashville, TN ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8
Armed Forces Minnesota Air Force December 29 Fort Worth, TX Big Ten vs. MWC
Russell Athletic Florida State West Virginia December 29 Orlando, FL ACC 2 vs. Big 12 3
Texas Kansas State Missouri December 29 Houston, TX Big 12 4 vs. SEC 3-8
Military Georgia Tech Navy December 28 Annapolis, MD ACC vs. American
Quick Lane Pitt Indiana December 28 Detroit, MI ACC vs. Big Ten
Foster Farms Iowa Stanford December 26 Santa Clara, CA Big Ten 5-7 vs. Pac-12 4
Heart of Dallas New Mexico* Marshall December 26 Dallas, TX Big 12 7 vs. C-USA
Independence Louisville Middle Tennessee December 26 Shreveport, LA ACC vs. SEC (C-USA backup)
Pinstripe NC State Northwestern December 26 New York, NY ACC 3-6 vs. Big Ten 5-7
St. Petersburg Miami* Old Dominion December 26 St. Petersburg, FL American vs. C-USA
Sun North Carolina Cal December 26 El Paso, TX ACC 3-6 vs. Pac-12 5
Bahamas Southern Miss Ohio December 24 Nassau, BS C-USA vs. MAC 4/5
Hawaii Temple BYU December 24 Honolulu, HI American vs. MWC/BYU
GoDaddy Toledo Georgia Southern December 23 Mobile, AL MAC 1 vs. Sun Belt 2
Poinsettia San Diego State Boston College* December 23 San Diego, CA MWC vs. Army
Boca Raton East Carolina Western Michigan December 22 Boca Raton, FL American vs. MAC
Potato Northern Illinois Colorado State December 22 Boise, ID MAC 2 vs. MWC
Miami Beach Cincinnati Western Kentucky December 21 Miami, FL American vs. C-USA
Camelia Bowling Green Arkansas State December 19 Montgomery, AL MAC 3 vs. Sun Belt 3
Cure Tulane South Alabama December 19 Orlando, FL American vs. Sun Belt
Las Vegas Boise State Arizona State December 19 Las Vegas, NV MWC 1/BYU vs. Pac-12 6
New Mexico Rice Nevada December 19 Albuquerque, NM C-USA vs. MWC
New Orleans Appalachian State Louisiana Tech December 19 New Orleans, LA Sun Belt 1 vs. C-USA


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The two big exits this week: preseason SEC favorite Auburn and Texas, which has the country's richest athletic department. Life comes at you fast.

The most noteworthy addition is Indiana, which fell short of landing College GameDay next Saturday (it's going to Irish-Tigers) but is a perilous 4-0 with Rutgers, Maryland and Purdue ahead.