The Alabama vs. Clemson National Championship advanced stats tale of the tape

Stats are the best way to start a conversation. They miss some specific context, but they make sure that we're starting with the right assumptions.

With that in mind, let's be sure our Alabama-Clemson preview material includes, yes, a data dump. Below is a massive tale-of-the-tape breakdown of the impending College Football Playoff championship. It points very quickly to the opportunities that exist for both teams.

For Alabama, the advantages are obvious. The Crimson Tide have what is by far the best defense in the country. They utilize good special teams and extreme defensive efficiency to create massive field position advantages. Occasionally they score points.

For Clemson, there's less margin for error, but the Tigers could turn the script in their favor by shutting down drives short of the end zone and harassing the quarterback on passing downs. They invade your backfield and finish drives. You can beat Alabama with that recipe.

Explore the matchups below. Share your thoughts in the comments!

No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (13-1) vs. No. 1 Clemson Tigers (14-0)

Jan. 11 (8:30 PM ET, ESPN), University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale

Spread: Alabama -7

S&P+ Projection: Alabama 26.7, Clemson 23.4

Team Sites: Roll 'Bama Roll, Shakin The Southland

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.}

_{Statistical profiles index.}

_{Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	Alabama		Clemson
S&P+ (Rk)	1		2
Category	Alabama offense	Clemson defense	Clemson offense	Alabama defense
Yards per play (Rk)	5.59 (52)	4.52 (11)	6.23 (22)	4.01 (2)
Yards per game (Rk)	423.7 (46)	299.6 (6)	520.7 (10)	262.6 (3)
Points per possession (Rk)	2.56 (38)	1.41 (12)	2.73 (26)	0.97 (1)
Category	Alabama offense	Clemson defense	Clemson offense	Alabama defense
S&P+ (Rk)	36.8 (25)	14.9 (4)	41.6 (10)	6.8 (1)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	116.7 (16)	121.9 (7)	115.6 (19)	160.1 (1)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	117.8 (25)	136.5 (4)	143.5 (3)	157.6 (1)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	115.8 (18)	144.5 (2)	127.2 (4)	152.2 (1)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	113.6 (37)	103.0 (62)	124.9 (16)	160.2 (1)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	117.6 (25)	155.5 (2)	126.6 (10)	162.4 (1)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	115.7 (29)	146.3 (2)	132.6 (7)	169.7 (1)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	124.4 (18)	140.5 (7)	130.5 (8)	155.4 (1)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	112.2 (28)	100.8 (68)	113.1 (25)	123.4 (10)

Five biggest advantages, according to the advanced stats

Alabama

1. Field Position (No. 5 offense vs. No. 96 defense)
2. Field Position (No. 26 defense vs. No. 100 offense)
3. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 34 offense vs. No. 78 defense)
4. Q4 S&P+ (No. 8 vs. No. 42)
5. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 1 defense vs. No. 28 offense)

Clemson

1. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 17 defense vs. No. 78 offense)
2. Third Down S&P+ (No. 10 defense vs. No. 64 offense)
3. Redzone S&P+ (No. 8 defense vs. No. 46 offense)
4. Run Stuffs (No. 2 defense vs. No. 34 offense)
5. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 3 defense vs. No. 30 offense)

Five Factors

Category	Alabama offense	Clemson defense	Clemson offense	Alabama defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.23 (80)	1.38 (109)	1.28 (57)	1.26 (71)
EFFICIENCY	44.1% (39)	32.0% (3)	48.9% (8)	27.7% (1)
FIELD POSITION	33.5 (5)	30.7 (96)	28.4 (100)	27.5 (26)
FINISHING DRIVES	4.9 (53)	3.9 (16)	5.2 (30)	3.6 (5)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Alabama 14.63 (1) Clemson 2.43 (48)		ACTUAL Alabama 9 (15) Clemson -1 (74)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Alabama offense	Clemson offense
Adj. Pace	1.6 (46)	9.0 (9)
Plays per game	75.8 (49)	83.6 (12)
Possessions per game	13.4 (45)	14.1 (17)
Std. Downs Run Rate	62.1% (51)	58.3% (70)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	39.4% (30)	36.6% (42)
% of solo tackles	75.4% (59)	77.2% (44)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Alabama defense	Clemson defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	54.3% (117)	56.3% (108)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	24.2% (126)	34.5% (61)
Overall Havoc Rate	23.3% (1)	21.3% (5)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	13.6% (5)	12.8% (6)
DB Havoc Rate	7.8% (13)	6.3% (51)
PD to INC	39.9% (11)	28.7% (100)

When Alabama has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Alabama Offense		Clemson Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	115.8	18	144.5	2	Clemson
Standard Downs Success Rate	50.9	23	34.7	2	Clemson
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.05	91	1.08	65	Clemson
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.05	42	2.17	4	Clemson
SD Sack Rate	2.8%	23	10.3%	1	Clemson

Passing Downs

	Alabama Offense		Clemson Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	113.6	37	103.0	62	Alabama
Passing Downs Success Rate	28.7	82	28.1	37	Clemson
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.94	27	1.64	100	Alabama big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.86	12	2.90	38	Alabama
PD Sack Rate	7.9%	78	10.9%	17	Clemson big

When Clemson has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Clemson Offense		Alabama Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	127.2	4	152.2	1
Standard Downs Success Rate	53.4	11	32.0	1	Alabama
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.21	20	1.10	54	Clemson
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.31	12	2.21	6
SD Sack Rate	2.2%	15	8.2%	5	Alabama

Passing Downs

	Clemson Offense		Alabama Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	124.9	16	160.2	1	Alabama
Passing Downs Success Rate	35.7	25	21.8	3	Alabama
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.57	109	1.88	31	Alabama big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.65	27	2.64	15	Alabama
PD Sack Rate	3.5%	8	14.2%	1

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Alabama	Jake Coker	6'5, 232	SR	247	368	2775	19	8	67.1%	20	5.2%	6.7
Alabama	Cooper Bateman	6'3, 220	SO	37	52	291	1	2	71.2%	1	1.9%	5.5
Alabama	Alec Morris	6'3, 233	JR	1	1	6	0	0	100.0%	0	0.0%	6.0
Clemson	Deshaun Watson	6'2, 210	SO	303	444	3699	31	12	68.2%	13	2.8%	7.9
Clemson	Nick Schuessler	6'3, 200	JR	13	23	177	0	1	56.5%	2	8.0%	6.1
Clemson	Kelly Bryant	6'3, 215	FR	7	9	27	0	1	77.8%	0	0.0%	3.0

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Alabama	Derrick Henry	RB	6'3, 242	JR	359	2061	25	5.7	5.4	42.6%
Alabama	Kenyan Drake	RB	6'1, 210	SR	76	407	1	5.4	5.3	46.1%
Alabama	Jake Coker	QB	6'5, 232	SR	46	250	2	5.4	3.8	50.0%
Alabama	Damien Harris	RB	5'11, 205	FR	46	157	1	3.4	4.6	28.3%
Clemson	Wayne Gallman	RB	6'1, 215	SO	269	1482	12	5.5	4.7	41.3%
Clemson	Deshaun Watson	QB	6'2, 210	SO	174	1100	12	6.3	5.6	45.4%
Clemson	C.J. Fuller	RB	5'10, 210	FR	42	171	1	4.1	2.0	35.7%
Clemson	Zac Brooks	RB	6'1, 200	SR	40	230	3	5.8	7.2	35.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Alabama	Calvin Ridley	WR	6'1, 188	FR	115	83	1031	7	12.4	9.0	72.2%
Alabama	ArDarius Stewart	WR	6'1, 204	SO	95	61	637	4	10.4	6.7	64.2%
Alabama	Richard Mullaney	WR	6'3, 208	SR	57	37	361	5	9.8	6.3	64.9%
Alabama	O.J. Howard	TE	6'6, 242	JR	42	33	394	0	11.9	9.4	78.6%
Alabama	Kenyan Drake	RB	6'1, 210	SR	38	27	255	1	9.4	6.7	71.1%
Alabama	Derrick Henry	RB	6'3, 242	JR	17	11	91	0	8.3	5.4	64.7%
Alabama	Robert Foster	WR	6'2, 194	SO	12	10	116	2	11.6	9.7	83.3%
Clemson	Artavis Scott	WR	5'11, 190	SO	113	89	894	5	10.0	7.9	78.8%
Clemson	Charone Peake	WR	6'3, 215	SR	73	44	617	5	14.0	8.5	60.3%
Clemson	Jordan Leggett	TE	6'5, 255	JR	53	35	447	7	12.8	8.4	66.0%
Clemson	Deon Cain	WR	6'2, 200	FR	46	34	582	5	17.1	12.7	73.9%
Clemson	Hunter Renfrow	WR	5'10, 175	FR	38	26	404	3	15.5	10.6	68.4%
Clemson	Ray-Ray McCloud	WR	5'10, 180	FR	34	28	244	1	8.7	7.2	82.4%
Clemson	Germone Hopper	WR	6'0, 180	JR	29	21	317	1	15.1	10.9	72.4%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alabama	Reggie Ragland	LB	6'2, 252	SR	76.5	11.7%	6.5	2.5	0	7	2	0
Alabama	Reuben Foster	LB	6'1, 240	JR	52.0	7.9%	7.0	1.0	0	9	0	0
Alabama	Geno Matias-Smith	DB	6'0, 196	SR	50.5	7.7%	1.0	0.0	1	1	1	0
Alabama	Eddie Jackson	DB	6'0, 194	JR	37.5	5.7%	3.0	0.0	5	2	1	0
Alabama	Jarran Reed	DL	6'4, 313	SR	36.0	5.5%	4.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Alabama	Marlon Humphrey	DB	6'1, 192	FR	36.0	5.5%	2.5	0.0	3	6	2	0
Alabama	Minkah Fitzpatrick	DB	6'1, 195	FR	34.0	5.2%	3.0	2.0	2	9	0	0
Alabama	A'Shawn Robinson	DL	6'4, 312	JR	29.5	4.5%	7.5	3.5	0	2	0	1
Alabama	Ryan Anderson	LB	6'2, 249	JR	29.0	4.4%	11.5	6.0	0	0	2	0
Alabama	Cyrus Jones	DB	5'10, 196	SR	28.5	4.3%	4.0	0.0	2	7	1	1
Alabama	Jonathan Allen	DL	6'3, 283	JR	27.5	4.2%	14.5	12.0	0	4	2	0
Alabama	Dalvin Tomlinson	DL	6'3, 294	JR	22.0	3.4%	0.5	0.0	0	6	0	0
Alabama	Shaun Dion Hamilton	LB	6'0, 229	SO	20.5	3.1%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Clemson	B.J. Goodson	LB	6'1, 250	SR	73.5	10.5%	14.0	5.5	2	3	1	1
Clemson	T.J. Green	S	6'3, 205	JR	72.5	10.4%	5.5	1.0	0	3	2	0
Clemson	Ben Boulware	LB	5'11, 240	JR	60.5	8.6%	8.0	3.5	2	7	3	0
Clemson	Jayron Kearse	S	6'5, 220	JR	49.5	7.1%	6.5	0.0	1	6	1	1
Clemson	Kevin Dodd	DE	6'5, 275	JR	46.0	6.6%	18.5	9.0	0	0	1	0
Clemson	Shaq Lawson	DE	6'3, 270	JR	44.5	6.4%	23.5	10.5	0	0	1	0
Clemson	Cordrea Tankersley	CB	6'1, 195	JR	40.5	5.8%	2.5	1.0	5	9	0	0
Clemson	Dorian O'Daniel	LB	6'1, 215	SO	27.5	3.9%	5.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Clemson	Travis Blanks	LB	6'1, 210	JR	27.0	3.9%	4.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
Clemson	Carlos Watkins	DT	6'3, 300	JR	24.5	3.5%	6.5	3.5	1	3	0	0
Clemson	Christian Wilkins	DT	6'4, 315	FR	23.5	3.4%	4.5	2.0	0	0	1	0
Clemson	Mackensie Alexander	CB	5'11, 195	SO	18.5	2.6%	2.0	0.0	0	5	0	0
Clemson	Austin Bryant	DE	6'4, 265	FR	16.5	2.4%	2.0	1.5	0	1	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Alabama	JK Scott	6'5, 195	SO	63	44.4	9	13	14	42.9%
Clemson	Andy Teasdall	5'11, 190	JR	57	39.4	0	24	18	73.7%
Clemson	Deshaun Watson	6'2, 210	SO	1	23.0	0	0	1	100.0%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Alabama	Adam Griffith	5'10, 192	JR	93	63.6	51	54.8%	3	1	1	1
Alabama	JK Scott	6'5, 195	SO	1	57.0	0	0.0%	0	1	0	0
Clemson	Ammon Lakip	5'10, 200	SR	73	59.2	28	38.4%	1	0	0	0
Clemson	Greg Huegel	5'11, 185	FR	30	62.7	8	26.7%	0	1	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Alabama	Adam Griffith	5'10, 192	JR	56-56	22-30	73.3%
Alabama	JK Scott	6'5, 195	SO	1-1	0-1	0.0%
Clemson	Greg Huegel	5'11, 185	FR	53-58	25-29	86.2%
Clemson	Ammon Lakip	5'10, 200	SR	7-7	1-1	100.0%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Alabama	Kenyan Drake	6'1, 210	SR	14	22.1	0	0	1 (1)
Alabama	Damien Harris	5'11, 205	FR	9	19.3	0	0	1 (0)
Clemson	C.J. Fuller	5'10, 210	FR	14	16.9	0	0	1 (0)
Clemson	Artavis Scott	5'11, 190	SO	13	24.0	0	0	0 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Alabama	Cyrus Jones	5'10, 196	SR	41	12.6	4	31	2 (1)
Alabama	Richard Mullaney	6'3, 208	SR	2	15.0	0	0	0 (0)
Clemson	Artavis Scott	5'11, 190	SO	11	3.0	0	20	1 (0)
Clemson	Germone Hopper	6'0, 180	JR	5	-1.4	0	7	1 (1)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}