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Updated bowl projections, with Clemson and Washington in the College Football Playoff

Let's predict who'll be in every bowl game at the end of 2016, after a big Week 5 helped define a couple Power 5 races.

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Week 5 gave us a pretty good idea of how half the Playoff race is shaping up at the moment. If we assume the Big Ten and SEC are each likely to be represented, and that the ACC and Pac-12 are ahead of the Big 12 and the American for the other two spots, then we might actually have a very good idea of how the field will play out.

So it's time to update these weekly bowl projections. As always, this is based on my guess of how the rest of the season will play out, after picking a winner and a loser for every game remaining on the schedule.

Below are picks for the entire Playoff, the rest of the New Year's Six, and every other bowl game as well. Things will change next week and every week thereafter, and then we'll have an actual bowl season! Won't that be fun?

Three of four Playoff teams swap this week. Two of those changes were pegged to this weekend anyway.

College Football Playoff
Dec. 31, Glendale, AZ
Clemson Ohio State Playoff rankings top 4
Dec. 31, Atlanta
Alabama Washington Playoff rankings top 4
National Championship
Jan. 9, Tampa
Alabama Ohio State Fiesta winner vs. Peach winner

Washington obliterated Stanford and is now the obvious Pac-12 favorite. It seems likely a Pac-12 champ can weather a loss and still make it in.

Clemson beat Louisville and could lose at Florida State in a few weeks and still make it. (The issue of whether Louisville can also make the Playoff, even if Clemson's the division champion, is now being raised. Let's wait a few weeks and ponder this.)

I'm also bumping Ohio State over Michigan this week. OSU still ain't played nobody other than Oklahoma, whereas Michigan's beaten good Colorado and Wisconsin teams, but I do not picture the Buckeyes only beating the Badgers 14-7. I've anticipated swapping OSU and UM all season long until they actually play, because the margins are very close.

New Year's Six bowls

OK, hang on. Before we go any further, I have a proposal that is against the rules.

This year, the only New Year's Six game that isn't locked into conferences is the Cotton, which is guaranteed the highest-ranking mid-major champion. That means there's only one spot in the NY6 that won't be based on conference affiliations in the committee's final rankings, and that spot will just go to the highest-ranked team left over.

At the moment, I have Miami in that spot, which would mean Houston-Miami in Texas. I also have Louisville-Texas A&M in the Orange Bowl.

Let us propose that the committee, with the blessings of ESPN and the affected bowls, pulls off a mutually beneficial switch.

Jan. 2, Arlington, TX
Houston Texas A&M At-large
Jan. 2, Pasadena, CA
Michigan Stanford Big Ten 1 vs. Pac-12 1
Jan. 2, New Orleans
Oklahoma Tennessee Big 12 1 vs. SEC 1
Dec. 30, Miami
Louisville Miami ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND

This would mean two ACC teams in one game, but South Florida native Lamar Jackson going home to play the Canes as the state of Texas' two best teams play in JerryWorld? That's way better than what the contracts would dictate.

Conference selection order, not based on standings
Jan. 2, Tampa
Wisconsin Florida Big Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 3-8
Dec. 31, Orlando
Nebraska Ole Miss Big Ten 2-4/ACC vs. SEC 2
Dec. 31, Jacksonville
Florida State Missouri ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8
Music City
Dec. 30, Nashville
Penn State Arkansas ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8
Dec. 30, Memphis
Oklahoma State LSU Big 12 5 vs. SEC 3-8
Dec. 30, El Paso, TX
Wake Forest Arizona State ACC 3-6 vs. Pac-12 5
Dec. 30, Tucson
Utah State Georgia Southern MWC vs. Sun Belt
Dec. 29, San Antonio
TCU Utah Big 12 2 vs. Pac-12 2
Dec. 29, Charlotte
Virginia Tech Georgia ACC 3-6 vs. SEC 3-8
Dec. 29
Temple Syracuse** American vs. SEC 9
Foster Farms
Dec. 28, Santa Clara, CA
Minnesota Colorado Big Ten 5-7 vs. Pac-12 4
Dec. 28, New York City
Pitt Maryland ACC 3-6 vs. Big Ten 5-7
Russell Athletic
Dec. 28, Orlando
North Carolina West Virginia ACC 2 vs. Big 12 3
Dec. 28, Houston
Baylor Auburn Big 12 4 vs. SEC 3-8
Dec. 27, Tempe, AZ
Texas Washington State Big 12 6 vs. Pac-12 7
Heart of Dallas
Dec. 27
Iowa WKU Big Ten vs. C-USA
Dec. 27, San Diego
Michigan State UCLA Big Ten 2-4 vs. Pac-12 3
Dec. 27, Annapolis, MD
Notre Dame USF ACC vs. American
Dec. 26, Shreveport, LA
Kansas State* Northwestern** ACC vs. SEC
St. Petersburg
Dec. 26
Georgia Tech Cincinnati ACC vs. American
Quick Lane
Dec. 26, Detroit, MI
Army* Indiana ACC vs. Big Ten
Dec. 24, Honolulu
Dollar General
Dec. 23, Mobile, AL
WMU South Alabama MAC 1 vs. Sun Belt 2
Armed Forces
Dec. 23, Fort Worth, TX
Texas Tech Navy Big 12 vs. Navy
Dec. 23, Nassau
Tulsa Akron American vs. MAC
Dec. 22, Boise, ID
CMU Air Force MAC 2 vs. MWC
Dec. 21, San Diego
BYU San Diego State BYU vs. MWC
Boca Raton
Dec. 20
Memphis Southern Miss American vs. C-USA
Miami Beach
Dec. 19
UConn Ohio American vs. MAC
Las Vegas
Dec. 17
Boise State USC MWC 1 vs. Pac-12 6
Dec. 17, Montgomery, AL
Toledo Troy MAC 3 vs. Sun Belt 3
Dec. 17, Orlando
EMU* UL Lafayette American vs. Sun Belt
New Mexico
Dec. 17, Albuquerque
Marshall New Mexico C-USA vs. MWC
New Orleans
Dec. 17
Appalachian State LA Tech Sun Belt 1 vs. C-USA

* = filling another conference's bid
** = projected 5-7 team, but bowl-eligible based on APR scores

This whole department is a total mess. Having a hard time right now seeing how we're gonna fill all these bowl slots without dipping into the sub-.500 teams again.

Most noteworthy exit: Oregon, which has made bowls in 18 of the last 19 years, including two national championship games.

Joining us this week: Eastern Michigan, which is 4-1 and on pace for its first bowl since 1987.