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The Aggies are going to win, and the Aggies are going to lose.
No. 9 Texas A&M hosts New Mexico State at Kyle Field on Saturday night, as A&M gets a brief respite from SEC play. A&M took its first loss of the season last week at Alabama, in a game that looked closer than it really was. The loss probably cuts off any chance A&M had at winning the SEC West, but our bowl projections still peg the program to reach the Sugar Bowl. There's still plenty to play for.
New Mexico State has struggled in the Sun Belt and sits at 2-5 overall, 1-3 in the league. Head coach Doug Martin is in his fourth season, and his Aggies still haven't gotten off the ground. (That's understandable; things have been grim there for a long time.) He's 9-34 in in Las Cruces, and if he doesn't fall to 9-35 after this weekend, it'll be the most colossal upset of the season. NMSU will just try to put up a fight.
How to watch, stream, and listen
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU. The broadcasters are Anish Shroff and Ahmad Brooks.
Online streaming: WatchESPN
Spread: Texas A&M is more than a 40-point favorite.
Make friends: SB Nation's Good Bull Hunting covers A&M. Underdog Dynasty covers the Sun Belt.
Three big things to know
1. Last week, Alabama pretty much reduced A&M to dust. The Aggies had a brief, one-point lead in the third quarter, but they were summarily outplayed. There's no shame in that happening against the Crimson Tide, of course, but it's staggering how much worse A&M looked than in any other game this season. The Tide predictably ran all over the Aggies, who've shown real weakness against the ground game all year.
2. New Mexico State can run efficiently, but don't expect exciting plays. NMSU gets meaningful, positive yardage on about half its running plays, with a top-25 Rushing Success Rate. But the running game doesn't feature any real explosiveness, and A&M should be able to keep things pretty well in check. NMSU averages a poor 3.7 yards per rush overall, with primary back Larry Rose III just a tick above that at 4.0.
3. This is history's first NMSU-A&M Aggie Bowl. The teams have never played, and the schools, despite being in bordering states, aren't close to each other. It's more than a 10-hour drive from Las Cruces to College Station, covering the majority of Texas from west to east. I'm a fan of teams with the same nickname playing each other – and have always enjoyed the Auburn-LSU series, for instance – so these schools playing is just fine with me.