All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.
Season record: 54-63 (46 percent)
Three weeks of record improvement, with a 21-12-1 record in Week 5. Being 23-36 in wagers decided by a single score and 5-14 in those decided by a field goal or less isn’t helping. More neutral luck would have me with a winning record on the year.
This week I am all about betting against teams who haven’t played anybody.
1. Temple at Memphis -9.5: I simply do not think Temple can score with a Memphis team that is really good on offense.
2. Western Kentucky -2.5 at Louisiana Tech: I thought Western Kentucky should be favored by seven, so perhaps I am too high on the Hilltoppers.
3. Clemson -16.5 at Boston College: Boston College has played the second-worst set of offenses played by any team in the country, according to Bill Connelly’s S&P+.
4. SMU at Tulsa -16.5: I’ve watched more Tulsa than I anticipated this season, and the Golden Hurricane are not as bad as I figured. I’ll lay the large number at home.
5. Georgia Tech +7 at Pitt: Georgia Tech allowed two defensive scores last week against Miami and failed to cover its line by one score. Pitt’s defense is not great this year.
6. Maryland at Penn State +1.5: I do not have much faith in Penn State, but Maryland has faced the No. 128 set of offenses and the No. 115 set of defenses. That is awful. Penn State has faced the No. 4 slate of defenses and the No. 47 set of offenses.
7. Iowa State at Oklahoma State -16.5: I’ve successfully backed Iowa State multiple times this year, but do not like the Cyclones in this spot after the crushing loss to Baylor.
8. Cincinnati at UConn +3.5: Cincinnati was pretty awful against USF, and it might be tough to turn it around this weekend on the road.
9. Iowa -1 at Minnesota: I’ve been against Iowa several times successfully this year, but Minnesota’s offense is not the type to threaten Iowa’s defense. I think the Hawkeyes will bounce back on the road.
10. Purdue at Illinois -10: Purdue is a mess, and Illinois is sneakily better than its record suggests.
11. Virginia Tech +3 at North Carolina: The Hokies are off a bye week and primed to pull the upset against a strong UNC. I give the coaching edge to the Hokies.
12. Notre Dame at NC State +1: I am concerned about the soft schedule played by the Wolfpack to date, but QB Ryan Finley has a 171 QB rating, and Notre Dame’s defense is a mess.
13. Oklahoma -10 v. Texas: While both defenses have faced many elite offenses, Oklahoma has had to face a lot of strong defenses. Texas has faced awful defenses.
14. Florida State +3 at Miami: Considering FSU’s potentially shaky mindset, this scares me, as Jimbo Fisher is just 2-7 as an underdog. But Florida State has faced the No. 1 set of offenses in the country, while Miami hasn’t been tested, facing the No. 119. To its credit, Miami has taken care of business like a good team should against bad competition.
15. UCLA -9 at Arizona State: UCLA could not be riding higher nor ASU riding lower, I am not convinced that the Sun Devils can bounce back from the trouncing by USC. I really like UCLA’s defense.
16. Tennessee at Texas A&M -6.5: Tennessee has been the luckiest team in America by my estimation, and Texas A&M plays some serious defense. Here’s betting this is where the Vols get their first loss.
17. Vanderbilt at Kentucky -3: Kentucky hasn’t been winning, but has shown more fight of late and played Alabama tough for a while. Vanderbilt’s offense is simply horrid.
18. Auburn -2.5 at Mississippi State: The Tigers are not great, but seem to be playing to their strengths, including a strong defense and an offense that limits turnovers. Yuck.
19. Colorado at USC -4.5: USC has faced one of the toughest schedules in America and has perhaps righted the ship with QB Sam Darnold. The Trojans looked good against Arizona State.
20. LSU -2.5 at Florida: Florida’s offense is horrible, and LSU just set a Tigers record for yards in an SEC game.
21. Alabama -13.5 at Arkansas: Arkansas’ running game is not what it was, and Alabama’s defensive line should dominate.
22. Air Force at Wyoming +10.5: Air Force is undefeated but is not a great team. The Falcons are also off an emotional rivalry win over Navy.
23. Toledo -17 at Eastern Michigan: The Rockets have an offense that I simply do not believe EMU can keep up with.
24. Texas State at Georgia State -10: Georgia State is the best winless team in America and is poised to put a hurting on the Bobcats.
Games I am not betting but had thoughts on
Indiana +30 at Ohio State: Indiana pulled the upset of Michigan State last week, which reduces the line value this week. If the Hoosiers had simply covered, I’d probably grab them at +32 or 33.
Washington -9 at Oregon: This feels inflated and there is a reason the bettor books have not moved to 10 yet — they do not want to give 10 to the dog bettors.