Updated 2016 bowl projections, with clear paths to the College Football Playoff

The country is down to 11 undefeated teams. The SEC's remaining two will be whittled to one within two weeks, when Texas A&M travels to Alabama. The Big 12 and Big Ten will be down to only one each by selection Sunday. The ACC and Pac-12 are already down to only one each. Only Boise State and Western Michigan remain unbeaten among mid-majors.

So right now, the Playoff picture looks suspiciously clear. The winners of the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC are likely in, and the Pac-12 looks like it has the inside track for the fourth spot. The Big 12 certainly isn't out, though. And Boise's strength of schedule has gotten a couple key boosts lately, so we might not want to count out the entire Group of 5 just because Houston lost.

That's right now, though. This season's true Madness Weekend has yet to strike. It's always out there, circling.

For now, here's how I think things line up. As always, these are picks for how every bowl game could look at the end of the season, with adjustments sure to come next weekend and all weekends thereafter. Have a nice Sunday!

Sticking with the same top four formula as last week: the obvious champions in three of the four favored conferences, with Michigan winning the weekly toss-up over Ohio State this time. I mean, UM did just give Rutgers the worst FBS loss of this millennium.

"But Rutgers is bad," one might say, to which I'd reply, "OF THE MILLENNIUM."

(In case you're just joining us, I've basically been switching the Buckeyes and Wolverines every week. There's no great argument for either team being clearly better or likelier to beat the other, but half the comment section will likely be about this anyway. That's fine.)

These could all be pretty good on the field.

• Michigan or OSU would probably destroy Utah, but we said the same about the Utes against Bama a few years ago.
• Oklahoma-A&M would be a Big 12 reunion and a rematch of that time Johnny Manziel dunked on the Sooners.
• Louisville-Tennessee should probably happen more often anyway.
• Sure, I'll take Boise over Houston, Navy, San Diego State, USF, and WMU right now. The number of potential bowl teams on the Broncos' schedule has been slowly increasing, and that win over Washington State could soon be a win over a top-25 team, roughly on par with what Houston did against Oklahoma. Life's pretty funny!
• Yeah, Baylor. I still figure the committee will try to avoid the Bears, but if they're 11-1, that's hard to do.

* = filling another conference's bid
** = bowl-eligible at 5-7 because of APR scores

Leaving us this week: Notre Dame.