clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

2016 Las Vegas Bowl stats preview: Houston vs. San Diego State advanced tale of the tape

NCAA Football: Texas Kickoff-Oklahoma vs Houston Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Houston Cougars (9-3) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (10-3)

December 17, 2016 ( 3:30 PM ET, ABC )
Spread: Houston -3.5
S&P+ Projection: Houston (28.3-24.7)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Houston San Diego State
S&P+ (Rk) 27 46
Category Houston offense San Diego State defense San Diego State offense Houston defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.23 (86) 4.78 (22) 6.08 (32) 4.62 (13)
Yards per game (Rk) 452.7 (38) 319.5 (11) 405.2 (69) 324.8 (15)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.70 (31) 1.66 (26) 2.83 (20) 1.65 (24)
Category Houston offense San Diego State defense San Diego State offense Houston defense
S&P+ (Rk) 31.2 (54) 24.0 (33) 29.0 (72) 21.9 (22)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 96.1 (91) 130.4 (5) 101.2 (71) 130.5 (4)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 110.6 (43) 102.7 (53) 95.5 (83) 111.4 (29)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 102.1 (64) 109.6 (33) 102.6 (60) 110.9 (30)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 112.2 (41) 121.4 (19) 87.9 (107) 130.4 (11)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 104.5 (63) 101.4 (61) 104.6 (62) 108.8 (40)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 117.4 (30) 138.6 (7) 93.5 (99) 113.2 (32)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 97.0 (79) 107.2 (40) 102.6 (58) 142.1 (4)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 87.3 (109) 123.0 (11) 98.6 (81) 116.5 (19)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Houston

  1. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 20 defense vs. No. 123 offense)
  2. Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 11 defense vs. No. 107 offense)
  3. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 13 defense vs. No. 109 offense)
  4. Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 12 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
  5. Adj. Line Yards (No. 3 defense vs. No. 91 offense)

San Diego State

  1. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 3 defense vs. No. 90 offense)
  2. Rushing S&P+ (No. 5 defense vs. No. 91 offense)
  3. Adj. Line Yards (No. 34 defense vs. No. 114 offense)
  4. First Down S&P+ (No. 17 defense vs. No. 80 offense)
  5. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 18 defense vs. No. 76 offense)
Five Factors
Category Houston offense San Diego State defense San Diego State offense Houston defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.22 (89) 1.24 (56) 1.29 (54) 1.29 (88)
EFFICIENCY 45.2% (31) 36.8% (22) 45.1% (34) 35.7% (14)
FIELD POSITION 32.2 (22) 26.4 (9) 32.1 (25) 28.1 (41)
FINISHING DRIVES 4.6 (53) 4.7 (83) 5.0 (21) 4.6 (77)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Houston 2.12 (51)
San Diego State 8.89 (6)
ACTUAL
Houston -3 (83)
San Diego State 10 (9)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Houston offense San Diego State offense
Adj. Pace 11.8 (6) -4.5 (104)
Plays per game 86.5 (5) 66.7 (120)
Possessions per game 14.1 (16) 12.5 (93)
Std. Downs Run Rate 51.5% (106) 74.4% (8)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 36.7% (38) 47.0% (12)
% of solo tackles 77.7% (36) 72.5% (82)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Houston defense San Diego State defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 56.2% (101) 58.7% (76)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 33.6% (69) 28.5% (111)
Overall Havoc Rate 19.4% (12) 17.8% (31)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 11.7% (20) 8.0% (86)
DB Havoc Rate 7.6% (29) 8.9% (6)
PD to INC 31.1% (89) 40.8% (5)

When Houston has the ball…

Standard Downs
Houston Offense San Diego State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 102.1 64 109.6 33 San Diego State
Standard Downs Success Rate 49.1 43 43.0 29 San Diego State
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.07 89 1.15 58 San Diego State
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.57 115 2.74 36 San Diego State big
SD Sack Rate 4.9% 68 6.9% 22 San Diego State
Passing Downs
Houston Offense San Diego State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 112.2 41 121.4 19 San Diego State
Passing Downs Success Rate 37.4 14 26.0 18
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.61 107 1.71 39 San Diego State big
PD Line Yards per Carry 2.99 91 2.90 36 San Diego State big
PD Sack Rate 6.4% 43 6.4% 86 Houston

When San Diego State has the ball…

Standard Downs
San Diego State Offense Houston Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 102.6 60 110.9 30 Houston
Standard Downs Success Rate 51.8 19 42.6 26
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.18 40 1.10 87 San Diego State
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.31 20 2.29 7 Houston
SD Sack Rate 9.2% 123 7% 20 Houston big
Passing Downs
San Diego State Offense Houston Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 87.9 107 130.4 11 Houston big
Passing Downs Success Rate 29.5 84 24.3 13 Houston big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.75 63 1.67 61
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.45 47 1.85 3 Houston
PD Sack Rate 9.6% 94 5.8% 101

Stats via SportSource Analytics