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2016 Independence Bowl stats preview: Vanderbilt vs. NC State advanced tale of the tape

NCAA Football: North Carolina State at Syracuse Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

NC State Wolfpack (6-6) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6)

December 26, 2016 ( 5:00 PM ET, ESPN2 )
Spread: NC State -4.5
S&P+ Projection: NC State (31.7-20.1)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category NC State Vanderbilt
S&P+ (Rk) 28 75
Category NC State offense Vanderbilt defense Vanderbilt offense NC State defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.47 (70) 5.61 (73) 5.16 (94) 5.10 (38)
Yards per game (Rk) 411.5 (67) 405.9 (64) 361.8 (107) 361.3 (29)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.08 (79) 1.83 (38) 1.91 (96) 1.91 (42)
Category NC State offense Vanderbilt defense Vanderbilt offense NC State defense
S&P+ (Rk) 31.2 (55) 27.2 (45) 25.1 (90) 20.1 (17)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 102.2 (67) 103.6 (52) 102.7 (66) 125.8 (11)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 110.0 (46) 108.7 (36) 95.4 (84) 115.8 (19)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 98.0 (80) 104.7 (43) 107.5 (45) 121.1 (9)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 127.7 (13) 108.7 (42) 78.1 (124) 117.5 (23)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 107.0 (52) 105.7 (46) 87.0 (107) 114.7 (27)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 109.8 (48) 111.5 (36) 105.2 (59) 134.9 (8)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 111.5 (37) 97.7 (75) 114.6 (31) 116.6 (21)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 105.1 (55) 111.7 (25) 85.1 (117) 103.8 (51)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

NC State

  1. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 21 defense vs. No. 123 offense)
  2. Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 23 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
  3. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 11 offense vs. No. 112 defense)
  4. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 26 defense vs. No. 125 offense)
  5. Third Down S&P+ (No. 18 defense vs. No. 116 offense)

Vanderbilt

  1. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 30 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
  2. Run Stuffs (No. 21 defense vs. No. 73 offense)
  3. Redzone S&P+ (No. 19 defense vs. No. 70 offense)
  4. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 41 defense vs. No. 87 offense)
  5. First Down S&P+ (No. 56 defense vs. No. 95 offense)
Five Factors
Category NC State offense Vanderbilt defense Vanderbilt offense NC State defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.25 (76) 1.28 (78) 1.18 (103) 1.25 (61)
EFFICIENCY 43.0% (59) 42.3% (62) 41.5% (78) 37.2% (24)
FIELD POSITION 28.9 (87) 31.8 (106) 27.0 (122) 31.5 (104)
FINISHING DRIVES 4.1 (105) 3.5 (5) 4.5 (66) 4.1 (38)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
NC State 1.45 (59)
Vanderbilt 4.96 (27)
ACTUAL
NC State 0 (67)
Vanderbilt 6 (26)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) NC State offense Vanderbilt offense
Adj. Pace 1.2 (52) -4.2 (101)
Plays per game 75.3 (51) 70.1 (96)
Possessions per game 12.4 (94) 12.3 (99)
Std. Downs Run Rate 61.4% (61) 62.4% (54)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 30.0% (90) 36.1% (43)
% of solo tackles 74.4% (57) 76.3% (44)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) NC State defense Vanderbilt defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 47.4% (126) 56.4% (97)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 36.7% (49) 37.5% (35)
Overall Havoc Rate 18.1% (27) 16.3% (47)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 11.3% (23) 8.8% (65)
DB Havoc Rate 6.6% (48) 7.4% (32)
PD to INC 29.8% (100) 36.6% (29)

When NC State has the ball…

Standard Downs
NC State Offense Vanderbilt Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 98.0 80 104.7 43 Vanderbilt
Standard Downs Success Rate 46.4 79 47.7 69 Vanderbilt
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.14 53 1.07 80 NC State
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.80 98 2.93 62 Vanderbilt
SD Sack Rate 3.9% 46 1.7% 124 NC State big
Passing Downs
NC State Offense Vanderbilt Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 127.7 13 108.7 42 NC State
Passing Downs Success Rate 35.6 22 30.8 61 NC State
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.53 120 1.68 66 Vanderbilt big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.36 59 3.63 104 NC State
PD Sack Rate 4% 12 6.3% 89 NC State big

When Vanderbilt has the ball…

Standard Downs
Vanderbilt Offense NC State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 107.5 45 121.1 9 NC State
Standard Downs Success Rate 48.4 57 41.9 18 NC State
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.10 75 1.14 45 NC State
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.16 39 2.22 4 NC State
SD Sack Rate 3.5% 35 7.9% 11 NC State
Passing Downs
Vanderbilt Offense NC State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 78.1 124 117.5 23 NC State big
Passing Downs Success Rate 27.0 109 29.3 43 NC State big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.51 121 1.72 43 NC State big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.06 86 3.05 44 NC State
PD Sack Rate 12.4% 118 5.3% 110

Stats via SportSource Analytics