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NC State Wolfpack (6-6) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6)
December 26, 2016 ( 5:00 PM ET, ESPN2 )
Spread: NC State -4.5
S&P+ Projection: NC State (31.7-20.1)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | NC State | Vanderbilt | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 28 | 75 | ||
| Category | NC State offense | Vanderbilt defense | Vanderbilt offense | NC State defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.47 (70) | 5.61 (73) | 5.16 (94) | 5.10 (38) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 411.5 (67) | 405.9 (64) | 361.8 (107) | 361.3 (29) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.08 (79) | 1.83 (38) | 1.91 (96) | 1.91 (42) |
| Category | NC State offense | Vanderbilt defense | Vanderbilt offense | NC State defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 31.2 (55) | 27.2 (45) | 25.1 (90) | 20.1 (17) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 102.2 (67) | 103.6 (52) | 102.7 (66) | 125.8 (11) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 110.0 (46) | 108.7 (36) | 95.4 (84) | 115.8 (19) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 98.0 (80) | 104.7 (43) | 107.5 (45) | 121.1 (9) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 127.7 (13) | 108.7 (42) | 78.1 (124) | 117.5 (23) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 107.0 (52) | 105.7 (46) | 87.0 (107) | 114.7 (27) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 109.8 (48) | 111.5 (36) | 105.2 (59) | 134.9 (8) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 111.5 (37) | 97.7 (75) | 114.6 (31) | 116.6 (21) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 105.1 (55) | 111.7 (25) | 85.1 (117) | 103.8 (51) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
NC State
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 21 defense vs. No. 123 offense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 23 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 11 offense vs. No. 112 defense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 26 defense vs. No. 125 offense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 18 defense vs. No. 116 offense)
Vanderbilt
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 30 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 21 defense vs. No. 73 offense)
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 19 defense vs. No. 70 offense)
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 41 defense vs. No. 87 offense)
- First Down S&P+ (No. 56 defense vs. No. 95 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | NC State offense | Vanderbilt defense | Vanderbilt offense | NC State defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.25 (76) | 1.28 (78) | 1.18 (103) | 1.25 (61) |
| EFFICIENCY | 43.0% (59) | 42.3% (62) | 41.5% (78) | 37.2% (24) |
| FIELD POSITION | 28.9 (87) | 31.8 (106) | 27.0 (122) | 31.5 (104) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.1 (105) | 3.5 (5) | 4.5 (66) | 4.1 (38) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: NC State 1.45 (59) Vanderbilt 4.96 (27) |
ACTUAL NC State 0 (67) Vanderbilt 6 (26) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | NC State offense | Vanderbilt offense |
| Adj. Pace | 1.2 (52) | -4.2 (101) |
| Plays per game | 75.3 (51) | 70.1 (96) |
| Possessions per game | 12.4 (94) | 12.3 (99) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 61.4% (61) | 62.4% (54) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 30.0% (90) | 36.1% (43) |
| % of solo tackles | 74.4% (57) | 76.3% (44) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | NC State defense | Vanderbilt defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 47.4% (126) | 56.4% (97) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 36.7% (49) | 37.5% (35) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 18.1% (27) | 16.3% (47) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 11.3% (23) | 8.8% (65) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 6.6% (48) | 7.4% (32) |
| PD to INC | 29.8% (100) | 36.6% (29) |
When NC State has the ball…
Standard Downs
| NC State Offense | Vanderbilt Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 98.0 | 80 | 104.7 | 43 | Vanderbilt |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 46.4 | 79 | 47.7 | 69 | Vanderbilt |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.14 | 53 | 1.07 | 80 | NC State |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.80 | 98 | 2.93 | 62 | Vanderbilt |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.9% | 46 | 1.7% | 124 | NC State big |
Passing Downs
| NC State Offense | Vanderbilt Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 127.7 | 13 | 108.7 | 42 | NC State |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 35.6 | 22 | 30.8 | 61 | NC State |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.53 | 120 | 1.68 | 66 | Vanderbilt big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.36 | 59 | 3.63 | 104 | NC State |
| PD Sack Rate | 4% | 12 | 6.3% | 89 | NC State big |
When Vanderbilt has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Vanderbilt Offense | NC State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 107.5 | 45 | 121.1 | 9 | NC State |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.4 | 57 | 41.9 | 18 | NC State |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.10 | 75 | 1.14 | 45 | NC State |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.16 | 39 | 2.22 | 4 | NC State |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.5% | 35 | 7.9% | 11 | NC State |
Passing Downs
| Vanderbilt Offense | NC State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 78.1 | 124 | 117.5 | 23 | NC State big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 27.0 | 109 | 29.3 | 43 | NC State big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.51 | 121 | 1.72 | 43 | NC State big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.06 | 86 | 3.05 | 44 | NC State |
| PD Sack Rate | 12.4% | 118 | 5.3% | 110 | |
Stats via SportSource Analytics