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2016 Cactus Bowl stats preview: Boise State vs. Baylor advanced tale of the tape

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NCAA Football: Washington State at Boise State Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

Boise State Broncos (10-2) vs. Baylor Bears (6-6)

December 27, 2016 ( 10:15 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Boise State -7.5
S&P+ Projection: Boise State (40.6-23.2)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Boise State Baylor
S&P+ (Rk) 15 73
Category Boise State offense Baylor defense Baylor offense Boise State defense
Yards per play (Rk) 7.00 (5) 5.45 (62) 5.74 (54) 4.73 (18)
Yards per game (Rk) 484.7 (20) 444.0 (92) 501.6 (12) 363.5 (33)
Points per possession (Rk) 3.03 (16) 2.06 (58) 2.45 (48) 1.86 (40)
Category Boise State offense Baylor defense Baylor offense Boise State defense
S&P+ (Rk) 40.4 (5) 31.6 (85) 31.4 (51) 24.1 (34)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 106.1 (49) 99.8 (66) 103.7 (61) 123.8 (13)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 126.8 (13) 98.4 (70) 94.6 (86) 119.3 (17)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 116.2 (17) 102.4 (48) 97.4 (82) 115.5 (19)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 114.5 (36) 99.6 (70) 106.8 (57) 136.7 (7)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 115.6 (34) 102.7 (55) 93.2 (94) 118.4 (21)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 122.8 (13) 108.3 (45) 103.1 (65) 129.4 (11)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 107.5 (48) 100.7 (60) 100.9 (67) 121.5 (15)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 114.2 (22) 124.7 (9) 107.3 (46) 93.8 (85)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Boise State

  1. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 12 defense vs. No. 90 offense)
  2. Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 5 defense vs. No. 83 offense)
  3. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 48 offense vs. No. 126 defense)
  4. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 11 offense vs. No. 85 defense)
  5. Third Down S&P+ (No. 26 offense vs. No. 96 defense)

Baylor

  1. Run Stuffs (No. 6 offense vs. No. 97 defense)
  2. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 38 offense vs. No. 128 defense)
  3. Field Position (No. 70 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
  4. Q4 S&P+ (No. 8 vs. No. 45 )
  5. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 41 offense vs. No. 65 defense)
Five Factors
Category Boise State offense Baylor defense Baylor offense Boise State defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.39 (20) 1.22 (44) 1.28 (60) 1.12 (6)
EFFICIENCY 48.3% (14) 43.1% (75) 44.5% (40) 38.3% (31)
FIELD POSITION 26.6 (124) 29.2 (70) 29.7 (63) 27.9 (36)
FINISHING DRIVES 5.4 (6) 4.4 (61) 4.4 (80) 3.9 (26)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Boise State -0.18 (72)
Baylor -7.89 (122)
ACTUAL
Boise State -7 (108)
Baylor -7 (108)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Boise State offense Baylor offense
Adj. Pace -3.8 (98) 14.1 (2)
Plays per game 69.3 (105) 87.4 (4)
Possessions per game 11.8 (121) 14.3 (12)
Std. Downs Run Rate 61.8% (59) 60.4% (66)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 27.5% (105) 40.6% (25)
% of solo tackles 77.3% (39) 81.2% (16)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Boise State defense Baylor defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 60.6% (61) 65.9% (21)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 30.3% (99) 36.1% (50)
Overall Havoc Rate 14.9% (85) 16.6% (44)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 6.8% (112) 7.4% (104)
DB Havoc Rate 5.7% (86) 9.2% (3)
PD to INC 33.1% (64) 34.1% (56)

When Boise State has the ball…

Standard Downs
Boise State Offense Baylor Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 116.2 17 102.4 48 Boise State
Standard Downs Success Rate 52.1 17 48.2 77 Boise State big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.30 8 0.99 40 Boise State
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.08 54 2.96 66 Boise State
SD Sack Rate 3.8% 40 5.5% 52 Boise State
Passing Downs
Boise State Offense Baylor Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 114.5 36 99.6 70 Boise State
Passing Downs Success Rate 38.6 11 31.3 70 Boise State big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.69 85 1.61 95
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.60 33 3.38 82 Boise State
PD Sack Rate 5.1% 22 8.8% 38 Boise State

When Baylor has the ball…

Standard Downs
Baylor Offense Boise State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 97.4 82 115.5 19 Boise State big
Standard Downs Success Rate 48.9 45 45.6 47
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.10 71 1.06 9 Boise State big
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.30 21 3.12 89 Baylor big
SD Sack Rate 4.8% 64 4.2% 80 Baylor
Passing Downs
Baylor Offense Boise State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 106.8 57 136.7 7 Boise State big
Passing Downs Success Rate 34.7 31 23.7 11 Boise State
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.84 42 1.82 19 Boise State
PD Line Yards per Carry 4.06 9 2.78 27 Baylor
PD Sack Rate 8.4% 73 8.8% 38 Boise State

Stats via SportSource Analytics