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2016 Alamo Bowl stats preview: Colorado vs. Oklahoma State advanced tale of the tape

NCAA Football: Utah at Colorado Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3) vs. Colorado Buffaloes (10-3)

December 29, 2016 ( 9:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Colorado -3.5
S&P+ Projection: Colorado (32.5-28.5)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Oklahoma State Colorado
S&P+ (Rk) 29 17
Category Oklahoma State offense Colorado defense Colorado offense Oklahoma State defense
Yards per play (Rk) 6.49 (14) 4.53 (8) 5.44 (73) 5.96 (103)
Yards per game (Rk) 495.8 (17) 329.4 (17) 452.5 (39) 466.9 (114)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.80 (23) 1.45 (11) 2.36 (55) 2.03 (53)
Category Oklahoma State offense Colorado defense Colorado offense Oklahoma State defense
S&P+ (Rk) 39.1 (13) 18.7 (11) 33.2 (43) 30.9 (81)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 102.7 (65) 114.1 (25) 99.8 (77) 96.7 (77)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 113.8 (32) 131.8 (6) 120.7 (20) 96.6 (78)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 110.1 (37) 118.4 (15) 107.1 (46) 92.8 (100)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 110.1 (46) 136.4 (8) 113.4 (37) 116.7 (25)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 119.8 (27) 131.3 (11) 125.3 (21) 102.1 (57)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 110.1 (46) 132.9 (9) 114.2 (37) 94.5 (88)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 102.7 (57) 118.0 (18) 92.1 (100) 103.8 (50)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 111.8 (28) 131.9 (3) 82.9 (121) 107.7 (37)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Oklahoma State

  1. Field Position (No. 1 defense vs. No. 85 offense)
  2. Field Position (No. 16 offense vs. No. 95 defense)
  3. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 26 defense vs. No. 69 offense)
  4. Third Down S&P+ (No. 27 defense vs. No. 69 offense)
  5. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 43 offense vs. No. 81 defense)

Colorado

  1. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 17 offense vs. No. 98 defense)
  2. Second Down S&P+ (No. 3 defense vs. No. 70 offense)
  3. Q2 S&P+ (No. 10 vs. No. 74 )
  4. Passing S&P+ (No. 20 offense vs. No. 78 defense)
  5. Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 46 offense vs. No. 100 defense)
Five Factors
Category Oklahoma State offense Colorado defense Colorado offense Oklahoma State defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.39 (19) 1.27 (77) 1.22 (86) 1.29 (87)
EFFICIENCY 45.7% (25) 35.7% (15) 43.8% (48) 44.1% (84)
FIELD POSITION 32.8 (16) 30.8 (95) 29.0 (85) 24.0 (1)
FINISHING DRIVES 4.9 (32) 3.5 (9) 4.9 (31) 4.7 (90)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Oklahoma State 6.94 (12)
Colorado 8.79 (8)
ACTUAL
Oklahoma State 10 (9)
Colorado 7 (20)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Oklahoma State offense Colorado offense
Adj. Pace 0.9 (56) 8.9 (7)
Plays per game 76.4 (42) 83.2 (9)
Possessions per game 13.8 (26) 13.9 (23)
Std. Downs Run Rate 51.9% (105) 63.7% (41)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 33.7% (65) 28.0% (104)
% of solo tackles 82.7% (12) 80.1% (22)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Oklahoma State defense Colorado defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 60.9% (58) 55.4% (107)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 33.1% (75) 34.0% (64)
Overall Havoc Rate 16.0% (57) 18.5% (22)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 10.8% (31) 8.2% (81)
DB Havoc Rate 5.2% (104) 10.0% (1)
PD to INC 35.5% (41) 37.4% (23)

When Oklahoma State has the ball…

Standard Downs
Oklahoma State Offense Colorado Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 110.1 37 118.4 15 Colorado
Standard Downs Success Rate 50.5 33 42.1 22 Colorado
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.24 20 1.17 68 Oklahoma State
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.96 72 3.45 119 Oklahoma State
SD Sack Rate 5.3% 75 6% 41 Colorado
Passing Downs
Oklahoma State Offense Colorado Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 110.1 46 136.4 8 Colorado
Passing Downs Success Rate 35.3 24 23.3 9 Colorado
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.85 34 1.81 101 Oklahoma State big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.57 37 3.07 48 Oklahoma State
PD Sack Rate 8.5% 77 7.8% 66 Colorado

When Colorado has the ball…

Standard Downs
Colorado Offense Oklahoma State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 107.1 46 92.8 100 Colorado big
Standard Downs Success Rate 48.6 51 50.7 106 Colorado big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.08 87 1.11 94
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.11 50 3.02 71 Colorado
SD Sack Rate 5.2% 72 4.4% 76
Passing Downs
Colorado Offense Oklahoma State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 113.4 37 116.7 25 Oklahoma State
Passing Downs Success Rate 33.1 44 28.0 31 Oklahoma State
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.70 79 1.84 93 Colorado
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.28 71 3.20 62
PD Sack Rate 8.1% 69 9.4% 26 Oklahoma State

Stats via SportSource Analytics