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2016 Orange Bowl stats preview: Michigan vs. Florida State advanced tale of the tape

NCAA Football: Citrus Bowl-Michigan vs Florida Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan Wolverines (10-2) vs. Florida State Seminoles (9-3)

December 30, 2016 ( 8:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Michigan -7
S&P+ Projection: Michigan (31.5-19.7)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Michigan Florida State
S&P+ (Rk) 2 9
Category Michigan offense Florida State defense Florida State offense Michigan defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.82 (46) 5.34 (53) 6.15 (29) 3.97 (2)
Yards per game (Rk) 438.8 (51) 366.8 (37) 470.2 (24) 258.1 (2)
Points per possession (Rk) 3.22 (10) 1.83 (39) 2.66 (35) 0.97 (2)
Category Michigan offense Florida State defense Florida State offense Michigan defense
S&P+ (Rk) 36.1 (26) 21.0 (18) 40.4 (6) 5.1 (1)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 108.5 (42) 111.7 (31) 130.8 (6) 135.6 (3)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 126.6 (14) 113.4 (25) 120.4 (21) 177.1 (1)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 113.9 (26) 114.9 (21) 117.4 (15) 148.7 (2)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 119.4 (23) 105.9 (50) 147.7 (3) 154.2 (4)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 129.4 (17) 111.5 (34) 128.4 (20) 153.4 (4)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 129.2 (4) 103.8 (52) 122.7 (15) 157.1 (2)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 125.9 (15) 140.5 (5) 133.0 (6) 142.5 (3)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 109.9 (33) 104.2 (49) 113.8 (24) 120.6 (13)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Michigan

  1. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 2 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
  2. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 1 defense vs. No. 92 offense)
  3. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 1 defense vs. No. 85 offense)
  4. Field Position (No. 1 offense vs. No. 79 defense)
  5. Field Position (No. 15 defense vs. No. 70 offense)

Florida State

  1. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 4 defense vs. No. 77 offense)
  2. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 3 defense vs. No. 27 offense)
  3. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 39 defense vs. No. 53 offense)
  4. Rushing S&P+ (No. 31 defense vs. No. 42 offense)
  5. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 14 defense vs. No. 24 offense)
Five Factors
Category Michigan offense Florida State defense Florida State offense Michigan defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.26 (66) 1.36 (111) 1.30 (47) 1.09 (2)
EFFICIENCY 44.0% (46) 37.3% (25) 48.4% (13) 29.4% (2)
FIELD POSITION 35.8 (1) 29.6 (79) 29.4 (70) 26.9 (15)
FINISHING DRIVES 5.1 (17) 4.2 (42) 4.8 (38) 2.8 (1)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Michigan 3.52 (39)
Florida State -5.48 (109)
ACTUAL
Michigan 6 (26)
Florida State 4 (37)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Michigan offense Florida State offense
Adj. Pace 2.0 (46) 1.0 (55)
Plays per game 75.3 (50) 76.5 (41)
Possessions per game 12.8 (82) 13.3 (46)
Std. Downs Run Rate 62.1% (57) 58.9% (73)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 44.0% (16) 23.3% (119)
% of solo tackles 73.1% (75) 78.1% (33)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Michigan defense Florida State defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 65.1% (24) 52.2% (118)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 33.7% (66) 31.1% (93)
Overall Havoc Rate 24.1% (1) 17.5% (32)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 16.2% (1) 11.5% (21)
DB Havoc Rate 7.9% (20) 5.9% (78)
PD to INC 35.9% (37) 30.7% (93)

When Michigan has the ball…

Standard Downs
Michigan Offense Florida State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 113.9 26 114.9 21
Standard Downs Success Rate 48.5 55 41.7 17 Florida State
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.10 74 0.97 109 Michigan
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.04 63 2.88 54
SD Sack Rate 3% 24 7.6% 14 Florida State
Passing Downs
Michigan Offense Florida State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 119.4 23 105.9 50 Michigan
Passing Downs Success Rate 32.1 53 29.3 44
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.91 22 1.37 72 Michigan
PD Line Yards per Carry 2.62 114 3.15 60 Florida State big
PD Sack Rate 8.5% 77 14.8% 4 Florida State big

When Florida State has the ball…

Standard Downs
Florida State Offense Michigan Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 117.4 15 148.7 2 Michigan
Standard Downs Success Rate 51.0 27 34.2 2 Michigan
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.24 22 1.21 7 Michigan
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.07 59 2.17 2 Michigan big
SD Sack Rate 5.9% 92 11.5% 1 Michigan big
Passing Downs
Florida State Offense Michigan Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 147.7 3 154.2 4
Passing Downs Success Rate 42.3 5 21.9 7
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.49 123 1.76 2 Michigan big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.85 18 2.42 10
PD Sack Rate 10.3% 105 16.2% 2 Michigan big

Stats via SportSource Analytics