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Michigan Wolverines (10-2) vs. Florida State Seminoles (9-3)
December 30, 2016 ( 8:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Michigan -7
S&P+ Projection: Michigan (31.5-19.7)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Michigan | Florida State | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 2 | 9 | ||
| Category | Michigan offense | Florida State defense | Florida State offense | Michigan defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.82 (46) | 5.34 (53) | 6.15 (29) | 3.97 (2) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 438.8 (51) | 366.8 (37) | 470.2 (24) | 258.1 (2) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 3.22 (10) | 1.83 (39) | 2.66 (35) | 0.97 (2) |
| Category | Michigan offense | Florida State defense | Florida State offense | Michigan defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 36.1 (26) | 21.0 (18) | 40.4 (6) | 5.1 (1) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 108.5 (42) | 111.7 (31) | 130.8 (6) | 135.6 (3) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 126.6 (14) | 113.4 (25) | 120.4 (21) | 177.1 (1) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 113.9 (26) | 114.9 (21) | 117.4 (15) | 148.7 (2) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 119.4 (23) | 105.9 (50) | 147.7 (3) | 154.2 (4) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 129.4 (17) | 111.5 (34) | 128.4 (20) | 153.4 (4) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 129.2 (4) | 103.8 (52) | 122.7 (15) | 157.1 (2) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 125.9 (15) | 140.5 (5) | 133.0 (6) | 142.5 (3) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 109.9 (33) | 104.2 (49) | 113.8 (24) | 120.6 (13) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Michigan
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 2 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 1 defense vs. No. 92 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 1 defense vs. No. 85 offense)
- Field Position (No. 1 offense vs. No. 79 defense)
- Field Position (No. 15 defense vs. No. 70 offense)
Florida State
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 4 defense vs. No. 77 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 3 defense vs. No. 27 offense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 39 defense vs. No. 53 offense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 31 defense vs. No. 42 offense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 14 defense vs. No. 24 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Michigan offense | Florida State defense | Florida State offense | Michigan defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.26 (66) | 1.36 (111) | 1.30 (47) | 1.09 (2) |
| EFFICIENCY | 44.0% (46) | 37.3% (25) | 48.4% (13) | 29.4% (2) |
| FIELD POSITION | 35.8 (1) | 29.6 (79) | 29.4 (70) | 26.9 (15) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.1 (17) | 4.2 (42) | 4.8 (38) | 2.8 (1) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: Michigan 3.52 (39) Florida State -5.48 (109) |
ACTUAL Michigan 6 (26) Florida State 4 (37) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Michigan offense | Florida State offense |
| Adj. Pace | 2.0 (46) | 1.0 (55) |
| Plays per game | 75.3 (50) | 76.5 (41) |
| Possessions per game | 12.8 (82) | 13.3 (46) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 62.1% (57) | 58.9% (73) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 44.0% (16) | 23.3% (119) |
| % of solo tackles | 73.1% (75) | 78.1% (33) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Michigan defense | Florida State defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 65.1% (24) | 52.2% (118) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 33.7% (66) | 31.1% (93) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 24.1% (1) | 17.5% (32) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 16.2% (1) | 11.5% (21) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 7.9% (20) | 5.9% (78) |
| PD to INC | 35.9% (37) | 30.7% (93) |
When Michigan has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Michigan Offense | Florida State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 113.9 | 26 | 114.9 | 21 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.5 | 55 | 41.7 | 17 | Florida State |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.10 | 74 | 0.97 | 109 | Michigan |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.04 | 63 | 2.88 | 54 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 3% | 24 | 7.6% | 14 | Florida State |
Passing Downs
| Michigan Offense | Florida State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 119.4 | 23 | 105.9 | 50 | Michigan |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 32.1 | 53 | 29.3 | 44 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.91 | 22 | 1.37 | 72 | Michigan |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.62 | 114 | 3.15 | 60 | Florida State big |
| PD Sack Rate | 8.5% | 77 | 14.8% | 4 | Florida State big |
When Florida State has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Florida State Offense | Michigan Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 117.4 | 15 | 148.7 | 2 | Michigan |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 51.0 | 27 | 34.2 | 2 | Michigan |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.24 | 22 | 1.21 | 7 | Michigan |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.07 | 59 | 2.17 | 2 | Michigan big |
| SD Sack Rate | 5.9% | 92 | 11.5% | 1 | Michigan big |
Passing Downs
| Florida State Offense | Michigan Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 147.7 | 3 | 154.2 | 4 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 42.3 | 5 | 21.9 | 7 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.49 | 123 | 1.76 | 2 | Michigan big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.85 | 18 | 2.42 | 10 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 10.3% | 105 | 16.2% | 2 | Michigan big |
Stats via SportSource Analytics