:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/52302717/usa_today_9673223.0.jpeg)
USC Trojans (9-3) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2)
January 02, 2017 ( 5:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: USC -7
S&P+ Projection: USC (30.2-26.7)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | USC | Penn State | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 8 | 12 | ||
| Category | USC offense | Penn State defense | Penn State offense | USC defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.02 (38) | 4.66 (16) | 6.28 (23) | 5.14 (41) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 458.3 (34) | 347.0 (22) | 442.5 (46) | 366.2 (35) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.67 (34) | 1.76 (32) | 2.74 (29) | 1.75 (31) |
| Category | USC offense | Penn State defense | Penn State offense | USC defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 38.6 (17) | 20.0 (16) | 35.6 (29) | 19.5 (13) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 120.4 (12) | 113.8 (27) | 100.7 (74) | 126.3 (10) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 134.4 (6) | 110.8 (31) | 143.7 (2) | 122.2 (13) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 122.3 (9) | 112.3 (25) | 116.0 (18) | 121.5 (8) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 143.6 (4) | 109.3 (39) | 132.2 (9) | 128.0 (12) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 134.3 (5) | 102.9 (54) | 108.6 (49) | 120.7 (18) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 129.0 (5) | 111.7 (35) | 112.4 (42) | 150.4 (4) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 124.0 (17) | 112.9 (25) | 145.7 (2) | 106.7 (41) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 103.2 (60) | 137.4 (2) | 136.2 (2) | 110.7 (28) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
USC
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 13 defense vs. No. 121 offense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 15 defense vs. No. 79 offense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 10 defense vs. No. 74 offense)
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 1 offense vs. No. 52 defense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 3 offense vs. No. 52 defense)
Penn State
- Run Stuffs (No. 20 defense vs. No. 86 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 33 defense vs. No. 87 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 34 offense vs. No. 87 defense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 46 offense vs. No. 93 defense)
- Q4 S&P+ (No. 1 vs. No. 31 )
Five Factors
| Category | USC offense | Penn State defense | Penn State offense | USC defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.23 (84) | 1.23 (47) | 1.45 (5) | 1.30 (93) |
| EFFICIENCY | 49.0% (10) | 38.1% (29) | 41.1% (82) | 35.8% (16) |
| FIELD POSITION | 30.5 (46) | 28.4 (47) | 33.5 (6) | 27.1 (19) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.5 (71) | 4.0 (29) | 5.0 (23) | 4.4 (62) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: USC 0.31 (69) Penn State 2.49 (46) |
ACTUAL USC -2 (77) Penn State 3 (43) |
||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | USC offense | Penn State offense |
| Adj. Pace | 1.5 (50) | -4.3 (102) |
| Plays per game | 76.2 (45) | 70.5 (95) |
| Possessions per game | 12.3 (99) | 13.4 (43) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 57.3% (82) | 63.4% (44) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 25.5% (111) | 33.9% (62) |
| % of solo tackles | 78.9% (28) | 74.5% (55) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | USC defense | Penn State defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 58.8% (72) | 63.8% (35) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 30.7% (96) | 30.1% (101) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 17.0% (39) | 18.7% (19) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 8.4% (77) | 13.0% (8) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 8.2% (14) | 5.7% (87) |
| PD to INC | 38.2% (17) | 32.7% (68) |
When USC has the ball…
Standard Downs
| USC Offense | Penn State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 122.3 | 9 | 112.3 | 25 | USC |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 52.5 | 16 | 42.5 | 25 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.08 | 85 | 1.17 | 49 | Penn State |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.27 | 28 | 2.62 | 26 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 1.9% | 3 | 5.7% | 46 | USC |
Passing Downs
| USC Offense | Penn State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 143.6 | 4 | 109.3 | 39 | USC |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 40.7 | 9 | 29.4 | 46 | USC |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.69 | 86 | 1.67 | 35 | Penn State big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.82 | 104 | 2.87 | 33 | Penn State big |
| PD Sack Rate | 4.6% | 16 | 10.4% | 17 | |
When Penn State has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Penn State Offense | USC Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 116.0 | 18 | 121.5 | 8 | USC |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 45.0 | 97 | 40.2 | 11 | USC big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.23 | 26 | 1.07 | 93 | Penn State big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.36 | 124 | 2.79 | 42 | USC big |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.8% | 64 | 5.6% | 48 | USC |
Passing Downs
| Penn State Offense | USC Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 132.2 | 9 | 128.0 | 12 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 32.6 | 47 | 27.8 | 30 | USC |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.14 | 5 | 1.66 | 42 | Penn State |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 1.42 | 127 | 2.66 | 21 | USC big |
| PD Sack Rate | 6.5% | 46 | 6.1% | 93 | Penn State |
Stats via SportSource Analytics