Clemson QB Deshaun Watson’s thrown a lot of INTs. Let’s look closely at each

Clemson junior quarterback Deshaun Watson is brilliant. He finished second in Heisman voting this year, the second year in a row he got to New York. He won the Davey O’Brien Award this year and last, for the top quarterback in the country, and is a potential top-10 draft pick. He is prolific both in his individual numbers and his 30-3 career record as the Tigers’ starter.

There’s one hitch in Watson’s stats this year, though. The 3,914 yards and 37 touchdowns are great, as is the 154 efficiency rating. What’s less great are Watson’s 15 interceptions in 13 games. He tossed three in Clemson’s lone loss, at home against Pitt in November, and has been picked at least once in all but four games.

No other Playoff QB has more than nine. Watson throws more than the other three, but he’s also thrown one pick for every 32.5 attempts, worse than Alabama QB Jalen Hurts’ 37.4, Washington QB Jake Browning’s 50.4, or Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett’s 69.2.

It’s a common refrain that Watson is a victim of bad luck on many of this interceptions, that they aren’t indicative of lapses. The best way to test that is to go to the tape, so let’s do it.

Week 1 vs. Auburn

For: Well, uhh, there’s pressure coming off the edge on the back end that could have hurried his motion? It also is quite a play by the defensive back.

Against: The throw’s a beat late and a bit high. And Watson’s eyes are squarely on one WR (which could be a coaching point, sure).

This throw looks really bad. It sails on him, and it damn near looks like it was intended for the DB. But you can see why Watson isn’t able to drive the ball as he would have liked to. There’s a large gentleman in his face, popping him in the mouth because of an inadequate block by the LT. Watson stops the throwing motion just a touch short, and there’s way too much air under the throw.

Week 2 vs. Troy

For: Did the WR run the wrong route? Or at least, does Watson think the curl is at a different depth than it’s actually run?

Against: Deshaun, the hell is this? The DB reads his eyes and just sits there, waiting on the throw. Even if he isn’t there, this ball’s going to be underthrown for the WR.

For: It is a pretty athletic play by the DB here to drive on the throw and make the play. It’s third-and-long in opponent territory, and Clemson had to do something aggressive anyway.

Against: The smash concept against a cover 2 defense is supposed to create this scenario (minus the interception). The outside receiver’s curl holds up the cornerback, and if the QB can make the throw into the window created between corner and safety, there’s a nice completion to be had to the inside wide receiver. The throw’s just a beat late, and the WR is three steps out of his break before Watson uncorks it, allowing the safety to diagnose what’s happening.

Week 4 vs. Georgia Tech

For: This ends up being a safety because the DB fumbles into the end zone, so perhaps Watson’s true brilliance is that this was a two-point throw. Also, maybe Mike Williams ran the wrong route.

Against: Maybe Williams ran the right route. This was in the red zone and would’ve been all but a killshot. This is Clemson’s problem this season: letting teams hang around with pesky mistakes.

Week 5 vs. Louisville

For: The first part of the play is good, at least. Watson’s play fake sucks the LBs in and creates a window to throw into.

Against: But the throw’s way behind Williams, and it allows the DB to catch up. Watson creates this interception with a hurried throw. He probably should have just laid it up and let Williams make the catch in the air with his immense size.

For: Here’s an INT that is unequivocally not on Watson. I’m an “if it hits you in the hands, catch it” guy. Besides walking to the receiver and putting it in his hands, there’s not much more Watson’s could have done.

Against: Nope.

For: His wide receiver loses a step, and it impedes his ability to essentially act like a DB and make a play on the ball. This isn’t a real 50-50 ball, because the Turf Monster gives the WR less than a 50 percent chance to catch it.

Against: This is a risky throw anyway, to lay it up and give a great cover corner a shot. There’s a reason Louisville’s Jaire Alexander has five interceptions this season.

Week 7 vs. NC State

For: Nope.

Against: He’s got to feel that. It’s another risky-business throw, and it costs his team seven points in a game that went to overtime.

Week 9 vs. Florida State

For: Not much to highlight here. Watson just gets bamboozled by a dropping corner. If nothing else, there’s leadership here:

Against:

Next:

For: Similar to the NC State pick, I’d bet Watson doesn’t expect the defender to be where he is.

Against: He probably needs to expect the defender to be where he is.

Week 11 vs. Pitt

For: This is a really athletic play by the DB. Pitt’s players are on scholarship, too. Jordan Leggett does have a step on the trailing defender.

Against: Leggett does not have a step on the safety coming over the top.

For: It hits the wide receiver on the hands, and he could use two hands, although it might leave him open to a devastating hit. Watson is also dealing with a bit of pressure.

Against: Those things only matter so much. If it’s on a line, it has a better chance to be completed, as long as the WR can hold on through contact.

For: Watson’s trying to make a play. But that may be the problem.

Against: It’s a forced throw into triple coverage on second down with just over five minutes to go. You could live to fight another down and extend Clemson’s lead. Hell, two players had the chance to pick this off. Instead, Watson gives the ball back, and the Panthers score a game-tying TD in a game they end up winning.

Week 12 vs. South Carolina

For: This is a decent throw into a tight window. Receiver gets a hand on it.

Against: It’s this much out in front of the receiver, and not exactly on the money. Is that the margin between catch and bouncing off the hands and straight to a DB? With a quarterback who has the skill set of Watson, nitpicky ball placement things are things we should analyze.

For: This is just a pretty heady play by the defensive end to pop this into the air and cause the tip drill.

Against: Perhaps a pump fake could have been in order?

Watson’s an incredible player.

For every INT that was definitely his fault, he made plenty of excellent plays.

And there’s one other thing that’ll make him more efficient in the Playoff: the threat of his legs.

Clemson’s playbook has been held back just a touch. Watson hasn’t had his full tool set, because the Tigers have ran him less during the regular season. They did a similar thing last season as well.

From Oct. 3 of last season until the final game of the regular season, Watson rushed for more than 15 attempts once (16 rushes against Florida State). In the final game of the 2015 regular season, Watson rushed 21 times. He then rushed 24 times in the ACC title game, 24 times in the CFP semifinal and 20 times in the title game.

Clemson looks like they’re treating him similarly this season. Watson’s rushed more than 10 times in a game only once since October (again, against Florida State), and he’s being called on to tote the mail fewer times this season in general with only 4.1 yards-per-carry. But in the ACC title game against Virginia Tech, Watson had 17 carries, which ties for a season-high. Clemson may deploy Watson’s full skillset in the College Football Playoff, and taking the bridles off of him makes the team harder to defend.

Still, if Watson gets careless with the ball against the Buckeyes, Clemson is going to get sent home packing, lickity split. Ohio State’s defense has made teams pay all season with seven pick-sixes. Safety Malik Hooker & Co. will be waiting for Watson to make a mistake in the Fiesta Bowl, and it won’t matter whose fault it is.