The Boise State Broncos are 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread in their last seven postseason games. The Broncos are favored to keep that stretch of postseason success going in the Cactus Bowl against the Baylor Bears.
Boise State is a 7.5-point favorite in Phoenix at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. In their last 19 games coming off a loss as a favorite, the Broncos are 18-1 SU.
The Broncos finished the regular season with a respectable 10-2 SU record, but went just 1-6 ATS over their last seven games down the stretch. Boise State's Jeremy McNichols was one of the best running backs in the country this season, ranking fifth in the nation in total yards with 1,663 and third in rushing touchdowns with 23.
McNichols was the driving force of an offense that averaged 35.6 points per game this season.
Since 2011, Boise State is 14-4 SU and 10-8 ATS in 18 games as a favorite of 9 points or less, per the OddsShark College Football Database.
Betting Line / Total: Boise State -7.5 / 67 Points
Trend: Boise State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games in the postseason.
Trend: Baylor is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in its last nine games in December.
Averaging 43.7 points per game in a 6-0 SU and 2-6 ATS start, Baylor climbed all the way up to No. 9 in the AP Top 25 in Week 8 and appeared to have a shot at a spot in the College Football Playoff. It was all downhill for the Bears from that point, however, as Baylor went 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS over its last six games.
The decline was already in full swing when quarterback Seth Russell fractured his ankle, handing over the reins to freshman quarterback Zach Smith.
The total for the game is set at 67 points. The OVER is 14-5 in Boise State's last 19 games coming off an ATS loss.
Baylor finished the regular season ranked 96th against the run, getting torched for 210.5 rushing yards per game. The Bears defense also allowed 42 points or more in five of the team's 12 games.
With all signs pointing to Boise State having no trouble moving the ball against Baylor, the Bears will need to get their offense going under Zach Smith if they hope to avoid a blowout in the Cactus Bowl.
Baylor Bears vs. Boise State Broncos
When: Tuesday, Dec. 27, 10:15 p.m. ET
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix, Ariz.