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College football’s hottest teams include 2 in the Playoff and 1 each in the Rose and Orange

These full rankings for different parts of the season show who entered bowl season the warmest and who slumped into December.

By Bill Connelly Updated
Notre Dame v USC Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images

The whole college football season matters. That’s what we tell ourselves. A baseball team could go 83-78 and win the World Series. An NFL team can go 9-7 and win the Super Bowl. An NBA team can go 44-38 and win the NBA title. But that doesn’t happen in college football.

If it did, USC or Florida State might be a title favorite. Or hey, maybe Western Kentucky.

Many college football fans have long rebelled against the thought of an eight- or 16-team FBS playoff because of what it would do to the luster of the regular season. You maybe get one mulligan, but you definitely don’t get two, so the “every game matters” mantra rings mostly true.

Considering that TV ratings and attendance aren’t exactly soaring at the moment, there is probably some justification to the thought of keeping the Playoff field small. But for worse or better, limiting ourselves to four national title competitors means depriving ourselves of watching some of the hottest teams in the country playing for the title.

A year-end ranking doesn't tell a team's entire story, in other words. Below, you'll find S&P+ rankings broken into six sortable categories: all of 2016, September, October, November, the first half of the season, and the second half of the season.

2016 S&P+ rankings (by time period)

Team 2016 S&P+ Rk Sept. Oct. Nov. 1st Half of 2016 2nd Half of 2016
Team 2016 S&P+ Rk Sept. Oct. Nov. 1st Half of 2016 2nd Half of 2016
Air Force 58 75 79 50 69 70
Akron 103 90 86 122 91 120
Alabama 1 6 2 1 4 1
Appalachian State 32 67 14 26 39 22
Arizona 100 59 120 94 87 105
Arizona State 89 49 102 125 80 117
Arkansas 53 48 77 39 51 62
Arkansas State 92 119 36 32 109 24
Army 82 56 100 107 56 118
Auburn 11 29 6 34 18 23
Ball State 85 66 96 99 72 108
Baylor 73 11 39 109 17 99
Boise State 15 15 17 19 12 16
Boston College 88 50 81 93 52 98
Bowling Green 116 127 107 78 121 88
Buffalo 127 128 116 126 128 121
BYU 31 43 56 21 36 29
California 56 24 64 73 33 74
Central Florida 70 84 91 70 83 81
Central Michigan 81 54 98 105 64 111
Charlotte 124 123 115 117 125 119
Cincinnati 91 65 85 110 88 85
Clemson 4 4 7 3 3 5
Colorado 17 14 15 24 10 21
Colorado State 23 81 29 10 59 8
Connecticut 117 117 97 127 110 127
Duke 79 70 87 74 78 75
East Carolina 101 82 82 121 89 112
Eastern Michigan 84 72 92 77 73 93
Florida 42 13 22 66 14 64
Florida Atlantic 118 121 122 87 124 97
Florida International 114 126 108 92 120 110
Florida State 9 27 11 4 20 4
Fresno State 112 96 126 124 115 126
Georgia 66 104 40 52 77 49
Georgia Southern 86 52 113 80 71 89
Georgia State 106 108 93 88 99 101
Georgia Tech 50 77 51 48 62 42
Hawaii 99 125 45 116 101 94
Houston 27 12 50 49 16 63
Idaho 96 124 90 45 119 52
Illinois 98 71 109 114 81 123
Indiana 48 18 52 35 32 38
Iowa 20 47 48 22 41 26
Iowa State 67 103 99 56 104 60
Kansas 115 94 106 115 98 116
Kansas State 38 35 80 30 74 30
Kent State 113 118 94 103 113 102
Kentucky 59 69 53 62 66 53
Louisiana Tech 51 100 18 65 61 46
Louisville 7 3 16 41 5 28
LSU 5 19 1 14 8 9
Marshall 119 87 125 102 107 113
Maryland 87 41 78 118 54 114
Massachusetts 110 109 118 119 117 122
Memphis 41 46 104 17 67 43
Miami-FL 13 5 68 9 19 34
Miami-OH 78 110 76 68 114 57
Michigan 2 1 4 13 1 11
Michigan State 54 76 67 55 79 51
Middle Tennessee 77 61 65 95 44 92
Minnesota 37 20 47 64 29 61
Mississippi State 55 33 72 53 46 58
Missouri 64 34 101 81 57 80
Navy 60 89 59 42 93 35
NC State 28 9 38 29 6 48
Nebraska 34 26 27 63 22 55
Nevada 121 114 121 100 123 103
New Mexico 74 91 70 76 97 68
New Mexico State 125 112 111 96 116 106
North Carolina 22 39 35 36 40 25
North Texas 111 105 84 111 105 95
Northern Illinois 76 97 57 37 90 31
Northwestern 49 73 21 54 55 33
Notre Dame 25 58 28 16 45 13
Ohio 83 115 73 71 112 69
Ohio State 3 2 10 18 2 17
Oklahoma 10 30 9 8 15 7
Oklahoma State 29 68 26 28 50 27
Old Dominion 63 92 55 25 70 45
Ole Miss 30 16 32 89 13 76
Oregon 69 32 88 98 58 78
Oregon State 62 99 66 57 84 66
Penn State 12 36 5 6 21 6
Pittsburgh 26 25 30 27 27 20
Purdue 108 74 119 108 100 115
Rice 123 116 114 86 122 91
Rutgers 120 83 123 123 108 124
San Diego State 46 53 31 61 43 44
San Jose State 105 111 117 84 118 107
SMU 97 93 54 113 96 77
South Alabama 95 113 46 85 92 84
South Carolina 93 98 75 106 103 83
South Florida 39 45 43 23 34 40
Southern Miss 80 51 95 91 76 79
Stanford 21 37 60 15 53 18
Syracuse 90 79 62 120 82 104
TCU 44 23 61 60 38 56
Temple 18 64 24 7 42 10
Tennessee 43 7 105 33 31 54
Texas 45 31 42 51 30 47
Texas A&M 19 10 20 59 11 41
Texas State 128 122 128 128 127 128
Texas Tech 61 38 83 90 49 86
Toledo 35 22 44 40 28 36
Troy 65 42 25 67 35 59
Tulane 102 80 110 83 86 100
Tulsa 47 78 33 31 75 19
UCLA 57 40 49 69 37 71
UL-Lafayette 107 86 89 79 102 73
UL-Monroe 126 106 127 112 111 125
UNLV 109 95 103 97 95 109
USC 8 63 3 2 24 2
Utah 40 28 58 43 47 32
Utah State 71 57 69 72 63 72
UTEP 122 107 124 82 126 87
UTSA 104 120 71 75 106 82
Vanderbilt 75 85 112 44 94 67
Virginia 94 102 63 101 85 90
Virginia Tech 24 21 34 47 25 37
Wake Forest 72 62 74 104 68 96
Washington 6 17 8 11 9 12
Washington State 33 55 41 46 26 65
West Virginia 52 44 23 38 23 39
Western Kentucky 14 60 37 5 60 3
Western Michigan 36 88 13 20 48 15
Wisconsin 16 8 12 12 7 14
Wyoming 68 101 19 58 65 50

A quick summary:

  • The top 5 teams in September: Michigan, Ohio State, Louisville, Clemson, Miami.
  • The top 5 teams in October: LSU, Alabama, USC, Michigan, Penn State.
  • The top 5 teams in November: Alabama, USC, Clemson, Florida State, Western Kentucky.
  • The top 5 teams in the first half of the season: Michigan, Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, Louisville.
  • The top 5 teams in the second half of the season: Alabama, USC, Western Kentucky, Florida State, Clemson.

Alabama and Clemson are in the Playoff. USC plays Penn State in the Rose. FSU gets Michigan in the Orange.

Aside from WKU’s presence, this seems about right, doesn’t it? Dominance from Michigan and Ohio State was the story of the season’s early going. Alabama began to surge after its narrow win over Ole Miss. LSU caught fire when Ed Orgeron took over. USC finished the season smoking hot. Florida State, meanwhile, wasn’t far off of the Trojans’ pace.

Don't scoff at WKU's presence, by the way.

Over their last six games, the Hilltoppers — maybe the top-ranked light heavyweight in all the land — beat C-USA opponents by an average of 54-18, and that includes games against Bahamas Bowl champion Old Dominion and Armed Forces Bowl winner Louisiana Tech. I always say it’s not who you play, it’s how you play, and WKU finished playing absurdly well.

Some more observations:

  • Biggest (positive) difference between first- and second-half rankings: Arkansas State (109th vs. 24th), Idaho (119th vs. 52nd), Northern Illinois (90th vs. 31st), Navy (93rd vs. 35th), WKU (60th vs. third), Miami-OH (114th vs. 57th), Tulsa (75th vs. 19th), Colorado State (59th vs. eighth), Kansas State (74th vs. 30th).
  • Biggest (positive) difference between September and November rankings: Arkansas State (119th vs. 32nd), Idaho (124th vs. 45th), Colorado State (81st vs. 10th), WMU (88th vs. 20th), ODU (92nd vs. 25th), USC (63rd vs. second), NIU (97th vs. 37th), Temple (64th vs. seventh), WKU (60th vs. fifth), Georgia (104th vs. 52nd).
  • Biggest (negative) difference between first- and second-half rankings: Baylor (17th vs. 99th), Ole Miss (13th vs. 76th), Army (56th vs. 118th), Maryland (54th vs. 114th), Florida (14th vs. 64th), MTSU (44th vs. 92nd), CMU (64th vs. 111th), Houston (16th vs. 63rd), Boston College (52nd vs. 98th), Illinois (81st vs. 123rd).
  • Biggest (negative) difference between September and November rankings: Baylor (11th vs. 109th), Maryland (41st vs. 118th), Arizona State (49th vs. 125th), Ole Miss (16th vs. 89th), Oregon (32nd vs. 98th), Florida (13th vs. 66th), Texas Tech (38th vs. 90th), Army (56th vs. 107th), CMU (54th vs. 105th), Cal (24th vs. 73rd), Texas A&M (10th vs. 59th).

Sometimes stats and eyeballs agree. Anybody watching Baylor and Ole Miss in September and November saw shells of former selves. Meanwhile, teams like Arkansas State and NIU managed to find themselves as both younger players got more reps and respective schedules eased up a bit.

Here’s another example of a team that caught fire at the right time.

When Miami (Ohio) and Mississippi State kick off in Monday’s St. Petersburg Bowl, it will represent the least likely matchup of bowl season. First, there aren’t that many MAC-vs.-SEC battles to begin with; Miami hasn’t ever played an FBS team from Mississippi.

But that’s not why the matchup is so wild. Miami vs. anybody seemed impossible in mid-October.

Chuck Martin's tenure at Miami began with an incredible 25 losses in 30 games, including an 0-6 start to 2016. They were competitive in losses to Western Kentucky (31-24) and Cincinnati (27-20), but a 35-13 loss at Akron seemed like a death knell for Martin's tenure. He hadn't been able to generate traction at a job that was a lot harder than it used to be. The Cradle of Coaches was ending careers.

In October, Miami took down awful Kent State and Bowling Green squads by a combined 18 points. Then it knocked off bowl teams EMU and CMU. A 35-24 win at Buffalo made the impossible possible: with a home win over Ball State, the Redhawks could finish a perfectly symmetrical 6-6 season.

Miami trailed 17-7 at halftime, but fate takes over sometimes. A 74-yard touchdown from Gus Ragland to Rokeem Williams brought the Redhawks within three, and with 5:44 left, a 27-yard strike to Sam Shisso gave them a 21-20 lead that would hold up.

There were some solid performances in the losses and some OK-at-best games during the win streak. And we don’t know if Martin has turned things around or if this is a blip. Either could be the case; in 2012, Rice surged from 2-6 to 7-6, then won 18 games and a Conference USA title over the next two seasons. But in 2015, Georgia State went from 2-6 to 6-6 to secure an unlikely bowl bid; the Panthers went 3-9 in 2016.

Still, Miami is proof that who you are in September isn't who you will be in November or December.

NCAA Football: Central Michigan at Miami (Ohio)
Miami’s Gus Ragland
Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

S&P+ adds one extra piece of symmetry: the Redhawks’ ranking for the second half of 2016 (57th) is exactly half of its ranking for the first half (114th).

Full-season ratings give Mississippi State about a six-point edge in St. Pete on Monday, but over the second half of the year, these teams were dead even: Miami was 57th in S&P+ in that span, and MSU was 58th. Granted, their strengths of schedule were drastically different; plus, the bowl break may have served to cool the Redhawks off.

Regardless, if the November iterations of these teams show up at Tropicana Field, the world’s worst day of bowls could be more entertaining than expected.

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