40 college football bowl picks: 2016-17’s schedule is loaded with tight matchups

Both sides are right. Bowls are a cynical money-making exercise, an excuse for ESPN inventory, and an outdated way for all the wrong people to maintain some semblance of control over college football. They're also happy, bonus football.

We are at both extremes in 2016. We once again had 80 bowl bids to give out and fewer than 80 bowl-eligible teams, a sure sign of bloat and excess. We're also loaded with perhaps more interesting bowl matchups than we've ever seen.

Looking at S&P+ projections for the 40 bowl matchups, we find that 25 of them are projected within one possession and 12 are projected within four points. Sure, there are some potential blowouts in the mix (hello, Colorado State-Idaho), and sure, coaching changes will render some of these projections potentially moot.

But here’s a look at how each game is projected to go.

2016-17 S&P+ bowl projections

Individual team S&P+ rankings can be found here.

Podcast Ain’t Played Nobody bowl and CFP reactions

From the start of bowl season on Dec. 17 to the (pre-national title) end on Jan. 2, nine dates have at least three bowls. Here they are, ranked in order of watchability (i.e. average win projection for each game on that date):

1. Jan. 2: four games with 59.2% average win probability (tightest game: Oklahoma-Auburn at 50.6%)
2. Dec. 23: three games with 60.4% average (Troy-Ohio, 59.0%)
3. Dec. 17: five games with 60.7% average (Appalachian State-Toledo, 50.6%)
4. Dec. 31: four games with 61.1% average (LSU-Louisville, 50.5%)
5. Dec. 28: four games with 62.6% average (Utah-Indiana, 54.4%)
6. Dec. 26: three games with 62.8% average (Maryland-BC, 50.2%)
7. Dec. 30: five games with 62.9% average (Stanford-UNC, 50.6%)
8. Dec. 29: three games with 68.3% average (Colorado-OSU, 59.1%)
9. Dec. 27: four games with 70.3% average (Wazzu-Minnesota, 51.1%)

The bowl season starts with a bang on Dec. 17, especially when you add what should be a fun Celebration Bowl (Grambling vs. NC Central) to what is otherwise an excellent mid-major showcase. Then, it wraps up with two powerhouse days full of tossup games.

Bowls may be all that's wrong with the old guard of college football, but that's easier to swallow when there are this many fun games.