Can Rice Owls football bounce back from 2015's sudden, drastic collapse?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. A loud thud

Since losing, 28-24, to eventual Conference USA champion Tulsa in 2012, Rice is 24-9. The Owls won the final five games of 2012, eking out bowl eligibility and thumping Air Force. They then thumped Marshall to win Conference USA in 2013, and after losing offensive difference-makers, they began 2014 0-3 and finished 8-2 with a bowl romp over Fresno State.

Bailiff teams finish strong. They click in November, and they bowl in December. Rice has attended as many bowls under Bailiff (four) as it had in the 53 years before he arrived and has won as many bowls as it had in the previous 69. This isn't a powerhouse program, but it is turning into one of Conference USA's safest bets.

The first two words of last year's Rice preview were "cruising altitude." Hard jobs remain hard, but when you see what David Bailiff did at Rice from 2012-14, you can convince yourself that someone has figured out how to make a hard job easier.

Rice had two winning seasons between 1998 and 2011; after one of them (7-6 in 2006), head coach Todd Graham left. After the other (10-3 in 2008), the Owls kept their head coach (Bailiff) but won eight games in three years. But just at the very moment it looked like Bailiff's tenure was going to finish falling apart, the plane magically turned around. Rice lost key contributors after the conference title run of 2013 but managed to still win eight games in 2014. Once you've survived a transition in recruiting cycles and continued to win, it's really easy to convince yourself that the flight's going to be nice and smooth for a while.

Rice went 5-7 in 2015, and a three-game drop in the win column doesn't adequately describe how bad the Owls were for much of the season. Steady quarterback Driphus Jackson became terribly mistake-prone. An iffy special teams unit got worse. And an iffy defense completely bottomed out. According to the advanced stats, Rice had one of the four worst defenses in the country, and an offense with decent potential couldn't play consistently enough to win shootouts.

The result: Baylor 70, Rice 17. Western Kentucky 49, Rice 10. Louisiana Tech 42, Rice 17. Southern Miss 65, Rice 10. UTSA 34, Rice 24.

Against teams with any sort of offensive firepower, Rice was an owl fighting a pterodactyl. That the Owls managed to win five games tells you that a) there are a lot of bad teams in Conference USA and b) if you didn't have offensive firepower, you might be in trouble.

Injuries and extreme youth played a role in the defensive collapse, and while the offense will be led by a new quarterback, you could certainly make the case that there's a rebound in store for Rice in 2016. But you can lose your cruising altitude in a heartbeat in college football, and now we have to ask some tough questions about the long-term prospects of this program.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 2-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 123 | Final S&P+ Rk: 119
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Wagner	N/A	56-16	W	62%	100%	+26.3
12-Sep	at Texas	68	28-42	L	5%	1%	+4.3	+1.5
19-Sep	at North Texas	126	38-24	W	43%	93%	+7.4	+6.0
26-Sep	at Baylor	14	17-70	L	1%	0%	-19.3	-18.0
3-Oct	Western Kentucky	15	10-49	L	4%	0%	-15.5	-31.5
10-Oct	at Florida Atlantic	96	27-26	W	37%	54%	+25.3	+4.5
24-Oct	Army	108	38-31	W	43%	77%	+6.5	-2.5
30-Oct	Louisiana Tech	57	17-42	L	5%	0%	-4.7	-12.0
6-Nov	at UTEP	125	21-24	L	31%	59%	-8.7	-10.0
14-Nov	Southern Miss	56	10-65	L	1%	0%	-42.3	-47.5
21-Nov	at UTSA	111	24-34	L	11%	10%	-2.0	-7.0
28-Nov	Charlotte	124	27-7	W	58%	96%	+14.2	+9.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	23.5	101	41.4	125
Points Per Game	26.1	87	35.8	108

2. Bad against good (again)

Even at its highest moments, Rice under Bailiff has mainly punched its weight. The Owls are built to battle Conference USA foes, and power conference foes tend to have their way with them. Since 2012, they have played nine power conference opponents, and if you remove two games against Kansas (for obvious reasons), they are 0-7 with an average loss of 49-19. They're 30-15 against everybody else, with a conference title.

Granted, building your team as a welterweight that might occasionally get mauled by cruiserweights doesn't inspire the imagination. But it tends to lead to quite a few wins when there are mostly welterweights and lightweights on the schedule.

In 2014, Rice's average percentile performance was 74 percent in eight wins and 11 percent in five losses. Just about every team plays better in wins than losses, obviously, but the difference for Rice has been stark. It was no different in 2015.

• 5 wins -- Average percentile performance: 49% | Performance vs. S&P+ projection: +15.9 PPG
• 7 losses -- Average percentile performance: 8% | Performance vs. S&P+ projection: -12.6 PPG

The defense was too young and thin, and the team's ceiling was therefore not as high (and the floor was a little easier to find). But it was the same phenomenon. Perhaps no team in FBS is this stark: if Rice can match you athletically, you're toast. If the Owls can't, you're going to win by four touchdowns.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.17	110	IsoPPP+	91.1	99
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.5%	44	Succ. Rt. +	99.0	77
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.3	57	Def. FP+	31.4	100
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.2	93	Redzone S&P+	97.4	86
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.0		ACTUAL	22	+1.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	62	94	77	99
RUSHING	59	86	66	102
PASSING	65	90	86	87
Standard Downs		98	84	106
Passing Downs		75	66	79

Q1 Rk	98	1st Down Rk	108
Q2 Rk	94	2nd Down Rk	104
Q3 Rk	123	3rd Down Rk	105
Q4 Rk	57

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2016 Year

Rivals

247 Comp.

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Driphus Jackson

185

316

2348

18

7

58.5%

34

9.7%

6.1

Tyler Stehling

6'6, 215

Sr.

3 stars (5.5)

0.8000

24

48

320

1

2

50.0%

4

7.7%

5.5

Nate German

6'2, 200

Jr.

2 stars (5.4)

0.8038

J.T. Granato

6'3, 215

RSFr.

3 stars (5.5)

0.8373

Jackson Tyner

6'5, 235

RSFr.

2 stars (5.3)

0.8199

Sam Glaesmann

6'3, 206

Fr.

2 stars (5.4)

0.8048

3. Now what?

When Rice lost unique dual-threat Taylor McHargue to graduation following the 2013 conference title run, it was fair to worry about the Owls' offense. McHargue threw for 2,345 yards as a senior while also providing a pounding presence in the run game. But in 2014, his successor, Driphus Jackson, threw for 2,842 yards and provided even more mobility.

The draw of Jackson in 2014 was he provided a dual-threat skill set without a ton of mistakes. He fumbled only twice, he threw only eight interceptions, and while his 7.5 percent sack rate was high, it wasn't dramatically so.

Granted, Jackson threw one fewer interception in 2015, but the sack rate rose to 9.7 percent, and he fumbled 12 times, more than anybody else in FBS. He was still a solid run threat (45 percent of his non-sack carries gained at least five yards) and completed nearly 59 percent of his passes, but his production was, at the very least, replaceable.

That's good, as long as you have someone who can replace it. Rice is not a recruiting juggernaut, but it appears there could be a pretty fun battle to replace Jackson. Per the 247Sports Composite, Rice will pit five three-star quarterbacks against each other, and while senior Tyler Stehling probably holds the edge simply because he's been the second-stringer for each of the last two years, his production hasn't been impressive enough to simply hand him the job. He completed only 50 percent of his passes last year, got sacked nearly as much as Jackson, and provided almost no run threat. If someone like J.T. Granato, the most highly-touted QB of the bunch, were able to put a nice spring performance together, the job could be up for grabs.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Darik Dillard	RB	5'10, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826	135	698	5	5.2	3.4	44.4%	2	2
Samuel Stewart	RB	5'9, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8485	95	388	4	4.1	3.4	30.5%	3	2
Austin Walter	RB	5'8, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8250	75	437	1	5.8	5.2	45.3%	2	0
Driphus Jackson	QB					75	361	3	4.8	4.6	45.3%	12	7
Jowan Davis	RB	5'7, 195	Sr.	2 stars	0.7893	71	297	1	4.2	3.4	33.8%	1	1
Luke Turner	RB					32	99	6	3.1	2.1	31.3%	0	0
Tyler Stehling	QB	6'6, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8000	5	11	0	2.2	1.9	40.0%	2	1
Nate German	WR	6'2, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8038	4	78	1	19.5	29.8	50.0%	0	0
Nahshon Ellerbe	RB	5'9, 195	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8104

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Zach Wright	WR	6'1, 205	Sr.	NR	NR	71	39	554	54.9%	19.8%	7.8	52.1%	40.8%	1.86
Dennis Parks	WR					57	33	498	57.9%	15.9%	8.7	50.9%	50.9%	1.56
Temi Alaka	WR	6'2, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7993	44	27	303	61.4%	12.3%	6.9	54.5%	43.2%	1.41
Nate German	WR	6'2, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8038	31	18	379	58.1%	8.7%	12.2	58.1%	54.8%	2.19
James Mayden	WR	6'3, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685	28	15	123	53.6%	7.8%	4.4	39.3%	35.7%	1.18
Parker Smith	WR	6'2, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956	23	16	135	69.6%	6.4%	5.9	56.5%	60.9%	0.83
Connor Cella	TE	6'3, 260	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859	21	13	209	61.9%	5.9%	10.0	23.8%	52.4%	1.68
Cole Hunt	TE	6'7, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8131	17	9	71	52.9%	4.7%	4.2	52.9%	29.4%	1.27
Luke Turner	RB					15	8	122	53.3%	4.2%	8.1	53.3%	46.7%	1.83
Darik Dillard	RB	5'10, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826	11	7	107	63.6%	3.1%	9.7	54.5%	63.6%	1.47
Samuel Stewart	RB	5'9, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8485	11	8	93	72.7%	3.1%	8.5	54.5%	45.5%	1.85
Lance Wright	WR	6'3, 205	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7683	9	6	49	66.7%	2.5%	5.4	66.7%	66.7%	0.72
Austin Walter	RB	5'8, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8250	8	5	8	62.5%	2.2%	1.0	62.5%	12.5%	0.85
Jowan Davis	RB	5'7, 195	Sr.	2 stars	0.7893	7	5	29	71.4%	2.0%	4.1	57.1%	28.6%	1.31
Cameron Decell	WR	6'4, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7300	4	3	11	75.0%	1.1%	2.8	100.0%	25.0%	0.94
Robby Wells III	TE	6'6, 250	Sr.	2 stars	0.7993
Aston Walter	WR	5'8, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8360

4. Always be closing (drives)

If the quarterback position is stable, skill position depth could carry the offense. Rice returns four running backs who carried the ball at least 70 times last year and seven players who were targeted by at least 17 passes.

The Owls get both their leading rusher (Darik Dillard) and receiver (Zach Wright) back, and some of last year's reserves are intriguing. Sophomore Austin Walter flashed big-play potential in rushing 12 times for 107 yards against Wagner, 10 for 65 against Southern Miss, and 12 for 78 against Charlotte. Meanwhile, Nate German moved from quarterback to receiver midseason and averaged 21 yards per catch over about three catches per game.

Experience in the receiving corps is especially important, and Rice has it. And the Owls have to hope that overall experience will lead to better execution and consistency, even with a younger QB. Despite one fewer game, Rice committed 10 more turnovers in 2015 than 2014, and while some of that stemmed from negative turnovers luck, not all of it did. Fumbles were devastating; nearly as devastating was awful redzone execution.

Rice ranked 36th in Redzone S&P+ when winning the conference in 2013 but ranked just 86th last year. The Owls both created fewer scoring opportunities and did a worse job of converting them. That tends to be a bad combination.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	102.9	3.12	3.68	39.6%	76.9%	17.0%	65.2	5.6%	12.3%
Rank	58	28	26	58	8	26	118	78	123

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Andrew Reue	C					10	36	2015 1st All-CUSA
Caleb Williams	RT					9	48
Calvin Anderson	LT	6'5, 260	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752	12	12
Peter Godber	LG	6'3, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7895	12	12
Trey Martin	RG	6'2, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719	12	12
Spencer Stanley	C	6'3, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7833	2	3
Connor Patterson	RG	6'4, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8101	1	1
John Poehlmann	RT					1	1
Sam Pierce	LT	6'6, 290	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	1	0
Kenneth Thompson	LG	6'4, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8423	0	0
Brandon Dawkins	LT	6'7, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8019	0	0
Cory Klingler	C	6'4, 300	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7959	0	0
Isaiah Edwards	OL	6'8, 380	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8140
Crockett Mokry	OL	6'4, 315	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685
Joseph Dill	OL	6'5, 376	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8038
Uzoma Osuji	OL	6'6, 265	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7894

5. Another solid line, at least

The offensive line seemed to do its part, at least in run blocking. Blocking for a scrambler is often tricky, and the sack rates were abysmal, but Rice did rank eighth in power success rate and 26th in stuff rate. The Owls kept defenders out of the backfield when running the ball, and that's a pretty important thing for a run-first offense.

Three of five starters return up front, as do two other players with starting experience. The Owls certainly have Conference USA-level size in the trenches -- every returnee from last year's two-deep goes at least 290 pounds, and Bailiff has signed massive human beings in each of the last two recruiting classes (380-pound Isaiah Edwards in 2015, 376-pound Joseph Dill in 2016). Losing a three-year starter (center Andrew Reue) and a four-year starter (Caleb Williams) isn't a good thing, but overall, size, depth, and offensive line coaching all seem to be in good shape.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.45	122	IsoPPP+	76.8	127
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.0%	101	Succ. Rt. +	85.1	120
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.4	77	Off. FP+	27.1	111
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.4	127	Redzone S&P+	79.4	127
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	13.7		ACTUAL	10.0	-3.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	103	127	120	127
RUSHING	88	114	116	109
PASSING	102	125	115	128
Standard Downs		123	111	124
Passing Downs		128	127	127

Q1 Rk	127	1st Down Rk	121
Q2 Rk	128	2nd Down Rk	122
Q3 Rk	107	3rd Down Rk	127
Q4 Rk	84

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	83.4	3.29	3.42	42.6%	65.7%	19.4%	90.8	4.9%	6.7%
Rank	125	117	86	109	63	74	81	70	79

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Derek Brown	DE	6'3, 225	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8100	12	36.5	6.1%	6.0	4.0	0	0	1	0
Brian Womac	DE	6'2, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7954	12	29.0	4.9%	11.5	4.0	0	1	2	0
Preston Gordon	DT	6'1, 280	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7652	12	19.0	3.2%	6.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Graysen Schantz (2014)	DE	6'3, 240	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	11	18.5	2.8%	7.0	3.0	0	0	2	0
Ross Winship	NT					11	17.0	2.9%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Blain Padgett	DE	6'5, 250	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8212	8	11.0	1.8%	2.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Brady Wright	DE	6'3, 240	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7683	12	10.5	1.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Carl Thompson	DT	6'3, 275	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8403	10	8.5	1.4%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Zach Abercrumbia	NT	6'2, 280	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8535	11	8.5	1.4%	1.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Grant Peterson (2014)	DT	6'5, 260	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	13	8.0	1.2%	3.0	2.5	0	1	0	0
Cody Henessee	DT	6'2, 265	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7800	9	6.5	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Stuart Mouchantaf	DT					10	5.5	0.9%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Parker Hanusa	DE	6'4, 240	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726	10	3.5	0.6%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Paine Matiscik	DE	5'8, 220	Jr.	NR	NR	5	1.5	0.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Brad Luvender	NT	6'3, 260	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7906
Will Phillips	DE	6'3, 237	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859
Javante Hubbard	DE	6'0, 226	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926
Elijah Garcia	DT	6'5, 270	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893

6. A pass rush makes the world go round

7.1 yards per play. 7.1! That's what Rice allowed over the course of the 2015 season. The Owls allowed 10.2 against Baylor, 9.5 against Southern Miss, and 7.7 against (gulp) North Texas. They were mediocre at best against most mid-major competition and helpless against good offenses. They ranked 111th or worse in virtually every opponent-adjusted defensive category above; they had the worst passing downs defense in the country, the worst second-quarter defense, the second-worst first quarter defense, the second-worst redzone defense, and the second-worst defense in terms of big-play prevention.

That's a lot of things to be bad at, and it cannot just be explained by youth and injury. But those two things certainly played a role. Rice got only one game out of end Graysen Schantz, and combined with the graduation of both Brian Nordstrom and Zach Patt (combined: 17 sacks) from 2014's top-10 pass rush, it left the Owls completely undermanned from an attacking perspective. Rice's Havoc Rate fell from 19.3 percent to 13.5, and when you attack and come up short, you tend to get burned.

But Rice got burned a lot in 2014, too. The Owls allowed 3.1 gains of 30-plus yards per game that year and did so again in 2015. The difference was that they weren't countering big plays with big plays of their own. And the biggest drop-off came in the pass rush.

Rice had to play six freshmen on the line last year, and while pure talent trumps the need for experience up front, a total lack of experience will obviously hurt you from a pure development standpoint. With these freshmen becoming sophomores and both Schantz and Grant Peterson returning from injury, the competition in practice will improve, at least.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alex Lyons	SLB	6'1, 225	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8100	12	58.0	9.7%	5.5	1.5	0	4	0	0
Tabari McGaskey	WLB	6'0, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7600	12	41.0	6.9%	4.5	1.0	0	1	1	0
Emmanuel Ellerbee	SLB	6'1, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7694	12	20.5	3.4%	2.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Nick Elder	WLB					10	15.5	2.6%	1.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
DJ Green	SLB	6'1, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8460	12	7.5	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Nick Uretsky	WLB	6'0, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7783	11	7.5	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Joe Ballard	LB	6'0, 215	Jr.	NR	NR	12	1.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Uzoma Akunebu	LB	6'0, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7693

7. Traffic cops

At the defense's relative best, Rice's linebackers serve as traffic control officers, reacting to plays and stopping those who get through the line. The Owls rely on linemen to generate havoc.

Linebacker production remained static in 2015 -- Rice LBs made 13.5 tackles for loss and defensed seven passes (in 2014: 13.5 TFLs, nine PDs). Alex Lyons, Tabari McGaskey, and company needed to do more to offset the loss of production up front, but that's not how this 4-2-5 scheme works. Only TCU's Gary Patterson is able to balance linebacker havoc with big-play prevention effectively.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
J.P. Thompson	KAT	6'0, 185	So.	NR	NR	12	38.5	6.5%	2	0	0	2	1	0
Destri White	KAT	6'0, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115	12	37.5	6.3%	2.5	0	0	2	1	0
J.T. Ibe	FS	6'0, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7957	12	32.5	5.5%	2.5	0	0	1	0	0
J.T. Blasingame	CB	5'9, 175	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7100	10	26.5	4.5%	0	0	0	4	0	0
Ryan Pollard	SS					12	25.5	4.3%	2.5	0	0	1	0	0
V.J. Banks	CB	6'1, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726	12	24.0	4.0%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Zach Espinosa	SS					12	21.5	3.6%	0	0	2	2	0	0
Garrett Fuhrman	FS					11	14.5	2.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Justin Bickham	CB	6'1, 190	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685	12	11.5	1.9%	0.5	0	0	5	0	0
Brandon Douglas	CB	5'9, 175	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752	11	10.5	1.8%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Jorian Clark	CB	5'10, 185	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685	10	9.0	1.5%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Cole Thomas	S	6'1, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8241	5	8.5	1.4%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Brandon Hamilton	S	5'11, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8207
Christian Bertrand	DB	5'11, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7885
D'Angelo Ellis	CB	5'11, 159	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7885

8. Experience, at least

The Rice secondary was nearly as inexperienced as the defensive line, and as we're learning, experience in the defensive backfield is vital. The Owls had to replace five of their top six DBs heading into the season, then had to deal with injuries and shuffling as well -- Cole Thomas (the second-leading DB heading into the season) missed seven games, corners J.T. Blasingame and Jorian Clark missed two, and others missed at least one. That meant 12 players logging at least 8.5 tackles, eight of whom were freshmen or sophomores.

Nine of those 12 are scheduled to return this year, however, and converted running back Brandon Hamilton might be more capable of contributing as well. There is depth of experience, at least, and the pass rush should improve at least a little bit. That only matters so much if there isn't enough pure talent or athleticism, but it will still help. It's almost impossible for Rice's defense to be as bad this year, especially against the pass, and experience could lead to decent improvement.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
James Farrimond			59	43.1	2	16	17	55.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jack Fox	6'1, 200	So.	51	63.7	25	1	49.0%
Cameron Decell	6'4, 200	Sr.	6	65.0	2	0	33.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Hayden Tobola	6'1, 180	So.	28-28	6-10	60.0%	2-3	66.7%
Jack Fox	6'1, 200	So.	12-12	1-2	50.0%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Austin Walter	KR	5'8, 190	So.	30	21.7	0
Samuel Stewart	KR	5'9, 200	So.	5	27.4	0
Samuel Stewart	PR	5'9, 200	So.	9	7.4	0
V.J. Banks	PR	6'1, 185	Jr.	4	7.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	98
Field Goal Efficiency	121
Punt Return Success Rate	73
Kick Return Success Rate	25
Punt Success Rate	46
Kickoff Success Rate	71

9. Lots of kickoffs? Advantage: Rice

Rice employed two freshman place-kickers, a freshman in kickoffs, and freshman punt and kick returners. That the Owls fell only from 93rd to 106th in Brian Fremeau's special teams efficiency ratings and ranked 98th in mine may have been a bit of an upset.

With punter James Farrimond gone, Rice loses a known quantity, but the Owls were decent in both kick returns (with Austin Walter) and kickoff coverage (with Jack Fox's kicks). Considering the high-scoring nature of most Rice games, that's probably a good thing.

Of course, Rice still needs to figure out the place-kicking situation. Fox and Hayden Tobola were both fine on PATs but drastically inconsistent inside 40 yards.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	at Western Kentucky	45	-22.6	10%
10-Sep	at Army	124	-1.5	47%
17-Sep	Baylor	13	-26.4	6%
24-Sep	North Texas	128	7.9	68%
1-Oct	at Southern Miss	72	-17.8	15%
15-Oct	UTSA	116	3.2	57%
22-Oct	Prairie View A&M	NR	19.8	87%
29-Oct	at Louisiana Tech	84	-14.5	20%
5-Nov	Florida Atlantic	100	-2.3	45%
12-Nov	at Charlotte	123	-2.1	45%
19-Nov	UTEP	126	7.0	66%
26-Nov	at Stanford	16	-32.3	3%
Projected wins: 4.7

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-21.3% (101)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	112 / 91
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-12 / -7.3
2015 TO Luck/Game	-1.8
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	66% (51%, 80%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	4.9 (0.1)

10. So many tossups

Rice is projected to have a 20 percent or worse chance of winning in four of its 2016 games and has an 87 percent chance of beating Prairie View A&M on October 22. Considering the Owls' history of getting whomped by superior teams and handling inferior teams pretty easily, we'll say that means they pretty safely go 1-4 in those games.

So that leaves seven games to define the season, and those seven could go in countless directions. In each, Rice has between a 45 and 68 percent chance of winning; if the Owls are a little bit better than their No. 119 projection (a distinct possibility considering they've been 95th or better in four of the last six seasons), they could easily go 5-2 or better in those seven and return to a bowl after last season's absence. But if sloppiness continues to hinder the offense after a quarterback change, and if the defense's primary 2015 issue turns out to be a lack of talent instead of a lack of experience, then another four- to five-win season (or worse) is possible..

David Bailiff now faces the burden of proof in a way that he hasn't since about October 2012. Teams rebound from one bad season all the time, and it's conceivable that Bailiff's Owls will do exactly that. But they lost the faith of the numbers in 2015, and there's never a guarantee of a rebound. This just became a difficult job again.