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1. The Ed Orgeron coaching tree
Say this much for Ed Orgeron: he has an eye for talent. The famed defensive line coach, now at LSU, has struggled to land another head coaching job because of how disastrous his three-year tenure at Ole Miss was (from 2005-07, the fiery Orgeron went just 11-25 in Oxford). But while the failure seemed to mostly stem from a lack of organization or strong planning, Orgeron had an eye for coaching talent.
- Offensive coordinator: Noel Mazzone, who has since served in the same role at Arizona State, UCLA, and Texas A&M.
- Receivers coach Matt Lubick, now Oregon's offensive coordinator.
- Tight ends coach Matt Luke, now Ole Miss' offensive co-coordinator. (Orgeron also brought Dan Werner to town when Mazzone left; Werner is now co-coordinator with Luke. And when Luke left for a while -- everybody left at some point, which tells you about one of Orgeron's many issues -- he was replaced with an unknown high school coach named Hugh Freeze.)
- Offensive line coach George DeLeone, now the OL coach for the Cleveland Browns. (When DeLeone left, Orgeron replaced him with Art Kehoe, Miami's longtime OL coach until 2016.)
- Defensive line coach Joe Cullen, now the DL coach for the Baltimore Ravens.
- Defensive backs coach Shawn Slocum, now Arizona State's associate head coach and OLBs coach. (When Slocum left, he was replaced with Tony Hughes, now Jackson State's head coach.)
Here are some of Orgeron's original 2005 hires:
Orgeron also brought Frank Wilson to Oxford as running backs coach. To that point, Wilson was an unknown at the college level. He had spent four seasons as the head coach of O.P. Walker High in New Orleans and was named Louisiana's coach of the year in 2002. He helped to produce more than 20 Division I prospects, and in 2004, he had begun a year as the director of athletics for the New Orleans Public School system.
A product of Nicholls State, Wilson had never coached at the Division I level before. But he had connections and a track record, and as good a recruiter as Orgeron was (and still is), Wilson may have been even better. And his reputation has only grown over time. He ended up on Lane Kiffin's 2009 Tennessee staff, then landed with LSU. For six seasons as LSU's RBs coach and recruiting coordinator, Wilson has helped to sign top class after top class; he has also developed quite a few big-time running backs.
It was time for Wilson to get a head coaching job. He had proved all he was going to prove as a position coach. He was discussed for a couple of jobs in Louisiana, but he ended up somewhere nearly as fertile: San Antonio, where he will serve as only the second head coach in UTSA history.
2. We know Wilson can recruit
We have no idea how good Wilson might be as a head coach. Plenty of ace recruiters have failed in this role. He's done about as much as Orgeron had when Orgeron landed in Oxford (though he does have head coaching experience at the high school level). But while he's not going to start inking top-20 classes at UTSA, he's almost certainly going to raise the talent level. He's begun already, actually.
In the week before Signing Day, Wilson landed six late commits. Among them:
- On January 27, he got a commitment from Gulfport (Miss.) lineman Josh Oatis, a high-two-star prospect per both Rivals and the 247Sports Composite.
- On January 30, cornerback Teddrick McGhee of Memphis came aboard. He is a 247 three-star.
- On January 31, lanky high-two-star defensive end Solomon Wise of Coppell (Tex.) committed.
- On February 1, three-star JUCO receiver Marquez McNair joined the class.
- And on February 3, Wilson landed safety Jaquelle Green of Biloxi, a mid-three-star per 247 and a four-star per Rivals.
Going by 247, these five players are among the nine most highly touted in the signing class. Not bad considering Wilson was hired on January 15, less than three weeks before Signing Day.
So now he has to coach. Either he will struggle like Orgeron did and leave his successor a pretty stocked cupboard, or he will show that he's learned from previous bosses' mistakes and thrive. All we know right now is that he can still recruit and that his assistant coach hires have been sensible and interesting.
2015 Schedule & Results
|Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 2-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 111 | Final S&P+ Rk: 113|
|Date||Opponent||Opp. F/+ Rk||Score||W-L||Percentile
|19-Sep||at Oklahoma State||40||14-69||L||4%||0%||-24.6||-30.5|
|10-Oct||at Louisiana Tech||57||31-34||L||37%||19%||+14.3||+7.5|
|17-Oct||at Southern Miss||56||10-32||L||4%||0%||-27.6||-11.5|
|31-Oct||at North Texas||126||23-30||L||16%||39%||-21.8||-16.5|
|Points Per Game||22.6||104||33.8||101|
3. Roadrunners aren't big on flying
In 2015, UTSA had to replace its starting quarterback, top running back, five of the top seven receiving targets, five starting offensive linemen, five of the top six defensive linemen, and four of the top six defensive backs. Coker had to deal with the issue nearly every start-up does: the first set of recruits -- a mix of five-year guys who signed before the program had even played a game, along with quite a few JUCO stopgaps -- all departs at once, leaving a crater on the depth chart.
Coker attempted to balance classes out with a mixture of high school signees, JUCOs, and transfers, but his grand chemistry experiment for 2015 mostly failed. That UTSA actually ranked better than 15 other FBS teams despite such turnover was a mild accomplishment, but the Roadrunners' percentile chart above looks like a bird trying to fly and failing.
UTSA was competitive against Arizona, the direct opposite of competitive against Kansas State and Oklahoma State, then decent to good for three straight weeks. Then came another crater (blowout loss to Southern Miss, tight loss to awful North Texas), another rebound (two straight wins), and a season-ending dud against MTSU. A 1-4 record in games decided by one possession kept the win total tamped down and perhaps aided in Coker's decision to retire.
|FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE|
|Raw Category||Rk||Opp. Adj. Category||Rk|
|EFFICIENCY||Succ. Rt.||39.0%||98||Succ. Rt. +||88.8||111|
|FIELD POSITION||Def. Avg. FP||30.8||90||Def. FP+||31.6||104|
|FINISHING DRIVES||Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity||3.9||111||Redzone S&P+||94.9||97|
|Q1 Rk||124||1st Down Rk||120|
|Q2 Rk||127||2nd Down Rk||116|
|Q3 Rk||68||3rd Down Rk||123|
Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.
|Dalton Sturm||6'1, 180||Jr.||NR||NR||125||212||1354||13||7||59.0%||32||13.1%||4.8|
|Manny Harris||5'11, 230||RSFr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7844|
|Jaylon Henderson||6'1, 205||RSFr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8205|
4. Frank Scelfo has coached a lot of good quarterbacks
New offensive coordinator Frank Scelfo's résumé sneaks up on you a bit. After a decade and a half of serving as a high school assistant in Louisiana and Texas, he landed on his brother Chris' staff at Tulane, first as tight ends coach, then as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. He spent three years in the same role under Derek Dooley at Louisiana Tech, spent two as Arizona's QBs coach, then spent four years as an assistant for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Let's put that another way: at Tulane, Scelfo coached Patrick Ramsey, J.P. Losman, and, briefly, Shaun King. At Louisiana Tech, he tutored Ross Jenkins to a 136 passer rating in 2009. At Arizona, he mentored Nick Foles and Matt Scott. And in Jacksonville, he's been a part of Blake Bortles' development.
It's not like "He's coached these guys" is a direct substitute for "He's why they were good," obviously, but Scelfo has at least played a role in the success of a lot of QBs. And while Tulane scored at least 300 points in a season five times during his eight-year OC tenure, the Green Wave have done so only once since he left.
Now we'll see what Scelfo can do with Dalton Sturm, Manny Harris, and Jaylon Henderson. UTSA scored at least 30 points in six games last year, and Sturm was at the helm for four of them. The walk-on from Goliad (Tex.) was dramatically up-and-down -- 171 passer rating against Louisiana Tech, 67 vs. Southern Miss, 143 vs. ODU, 89 vs. Charlotte, 242 vs. Rice, 109 vs. MTSU -- and took far too many sacks. But he showed potential as both a passer and runner. Meanwhile, the stocky Harris was a decorated local high school quarterback, and Henderson was one of Coker's more well-regarded signees.
|Jarveon Williams||RB||5'9, 200||Sr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8006||173||1042||8||6.0||7.7||37.6%||0||0|
|Dalton Sturm||QB||6'1, 180||Jr.||NR||NR||96||556||1||5.8||4.6||50.0%||3||2|
|Jalen Rhodes||RB||5'9, 185||So.||2 stars (5.2)||0.8063||60||242||3||4.0||2.6||33.3%||2||2|
|Tyrell Clay||RB||5'9, 200||Jr.||NR||NR||43||197||3||4.6||4.1||30.2%||0||0|
|Kerry Thomas Jr.||WR||6'0, 200||Jr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7994||7||44||0||6.3||5.7||42.9%||0||0|
|Derrick Dick||WR||5'8, 185||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7866||7||14||0||2.0||1.2||57.1%||3||1|
|Brian Vaughn||RB||5'6, 175||Sr.||2 stars (5.2)||NR||4||16||0||4.0||0.8||50.0%||0||0|
|Corbin White||RB||5'11, 235||Sr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7726||4||14||0||3.5||2.1||50.0%||1||1|
|Brett Winnegan||RB||5'9, 185||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7893|
|Halen Steward||FB||5'10, 260||So.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7583|
|Rivals||247 Comp.||Targets||Catches||Yards||Catch Rate||Target
|Kerry Thomas Jr.||WR||6'0, 200||Jr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7994||80||52||541||65.0%||24.0%||6.8||56.3%||45.0%||1.40|
|David Morgan II||TE||76||45||566||59.2%||22.8%||7.4||55.3%||50.0%||1.41|
|JaBryce Taylor||WR||6'1, 220||Sr.||3 stars (5.6)||0.8200||46||29||472||63.0%||13.8%||10.3||47.8%||43.5%||2.29|
|Aron Taylor||WR||6'1, 195||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8006||15||11||147||73.3%||4.5%||9.8||53.3%||66.7%||1.34|
|Jarveon Williams||RB||5'9, 200||Sr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8006||12||9||60||75.0%||3.6%||5.0||58.3%||33.3%||1.24|
|Jalen Rhodes||RB||5'9, 185||So.||2 stars (5.2)||0.8063||8||5||47||62.5%||2.4%||5.9||87.5%||37.5%||1.48|
|Brady Jones||SLOT||5'10, 180||Jr.||NR||NR||6||5||52||83.3%||1.8%||8.7||50.0%||50.0%||1.53|
|Derrick Dick||WR||5'8, 185||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7866||2||1||5||50.0%||0.6%||2.5||50.0%||50.0%||0.53|
|Greg Campbell Jr.||WR||6'0, 180||So.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7611||2||1||3||50.0%||0.6%||1.5||50.0%||0.0%||0.00|
|Trevor Stevens||TE||6'4, 245||Sr.||2 stars (5.4)||NR|
|Dannon Cavil||WR||6'1, 210||Jr.||3 stars (5.6)||0.8627|
|Peyton Hall||WR||5'10, 180||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7991|
|Triston Crossland||TE||6'2, 235||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7693|
|Shaq Williams||TE||6'3, 245||Jr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7794|
|Matt Guidry||WR||5'8, 160||RSFr.||2 stars (5.4)||NR|
|Austin Blake-Smith||TE||6'5, 240||Sr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.8033|
|Marquez McNair||WR||6'1, 185||Jr.||3 stars (5.6)||0.8263|
|Jesse Ebozue||WR||6'2, 195||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8117|
5. At least a couple of home run hitters
UTSA entered 2015 with almost nothing proven at the skill positions but with quite a few intriguing candidates. A couple emerged as potential stars. Jarveon Williams wasn't incredibly efficient but proved to be a home run hitter in the open field. He rushed 13 times for 170 yards against Colorado State, 19 for 186 against Charlotte, and 22 for 163 against Rice.
Meanwhile, the receiving corps returns an interesting trio. Kerry Thomas Jr. emerged as a solid possession receiver, and JaBryce Taylor had some explosive moments -- one catch for 40 yards against CSU, three for 99 against Louisiana Tech, four for 70 against MTSU.
Williams is potentially one of C-USA's best backs, and the offensive line returns three starters (and two others with starting experience). But if Scelfo wants to get pass-happy, newcomers could make that a viable option. Three-star JUCOs Marquez McNair and Austin Blake-Smith, Oklahoma transfer Dannon Cavil, and three-star freshman Jesse Ebozue all appear to have solid upside. If a couple of them are ready to contribute early, the receiving corps is in solid shape.
There are still obvious question marks on this offense. Sturm really has yet to play two consecutive good games, Williams is all-or-nothing, relying on newcomers in the receiving corps is dangerous, and either Sturm has to get rid of the ball sooner or the line has to figure out how to give him more time. But at least there is decent upside to go with the downside.
|Rivals||247 Comp.||2015 Starts||Career Starts||Honors/Notes|
|Reed Darragh||LT||6'4, 285||Jr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7600||12||12|
|Kyle McKinney||LG||6'4, 300||Jr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7644||9||9|
|Austin Pratt||LG||6'2, 300||Jr.||NR||NR||7||7|
|Juan Perez-Isidoro||C||6'2, 280||Jr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7600||5||5|
|Clayton Woods||C||6'2, 295||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8111||2||2|
|Gabriel Casillas||LT||6'5, 280||Sr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7800||0||0|
|Cody Cole||RT||6'5, 280||Sr.||2 stars (5.2)||NR||0||0|
|David Anzaldua||OG||6'6, 350||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8060||0||0|
|Alex Snow||OG||6'2, 295||RSFr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7983|
|Stefan Beard||OL||6'4, 315||Jr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7852|
|Tanner Myers||OL||6'7, 310||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8006|
|Josh Oatis||OL||6'6, 280||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7859|
|FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE|
|Raw Category||Rk||Opp. Adj. Category||Rk|
|EFFICIENCY||Succ. Rt.||43.7%||88||Succ. Rt. +||91.8||95|
|FIELD POSITION||Off. Avg. FP||29.4||82||Off. FP+||28.4||96|
|FINISHING DRIVES||Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity||4.0||34||Redzone S&P+||100.2||70|
|Q1 Rk||62||1st Down Rk||105|
|Q2 Rk||99||2nd Down Rk||55|
|Q3 Rk||96||3rd Down Rk||117|
6. Who's Pete Golding?
Wilson turned to a veteran to lead his offense, but he went back to his small-school roots to choose his defensive coordinator. Pete Golding is a Delta State grad in his mid-30s; Golding spent the last two seasons as Southern Miss' safeties coach, but before that he was a lower-level dynamo.
In four years as defensive coordinator at Delta State (2010-11) and Southeastern Louisiana (2012-13), Golding established a pretty clear identity. His first year at SELA was a struggle, but in each of the other three seasons, his defenses allowed 4.3 yards per carry or fewer and a sub-120 passer rating with a havoc rate of 18 percent or higher. (The havoc rate peaked at 20.3 percent in 2011 at DSU; 20.3 percent would have ranked ninth in FBS last year.)
Golding inherits a defense that was pretty passive last year -- UTSA was relatively inefficient defensively (more against the pass than the run) but prevented big plays for the most part and improved in the redzone. The Roadrunners return four of their top six linemen, one of the two linebackers who actually played, and eight of 12 defensive backs from a secondary that was young and constantly shuffling.
Golding's track record suggests he's going to want to be quite a bit more aggressive with this personnel; we'll see if he can engineer some early improvement, or whether he needs a year to get his footing, as was the case at Southeastern.
|Rivals||247 Comp.||GP||Tackles||% of Team||TFL||Sacks||Int||PBU||FF||FR|
|Marcus Davenport||DE||6'6, 225||Jr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7685||11||39.5||5.8%||7.5||4.0||0||3||2||0|
|Kevin Strong Jr.||DT||6'3, 285||So.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7652||12||21.5||3.2%||6.5||2.5||0||2||0||0|
|Jonathan Tuiolosega||DT||6'1, 285||Sr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7611||12||17.5||2.6%||2.5||0.5||0||1||0||0|
|Romario Napoles||DE||6'0, 230||Sr.||NR||NR||12||13.0||1.9%||2.0||1.0||0||0||0||0|
|Vontrell King-Williams||DT||6'2, 320||Sr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.7800||12||7.5||1.1%||0.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Ben Kane||DE||6'3, 240||Sr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7806||9||5.5||0.8%||1.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|T.J. King||DE||6'2, 260||RSFr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7926|
|DeQuarius Henry||DE||6'4, 220||RSFr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7583|
|Franklin Uesi||DT||6'3, 280||Jr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7744|
|Solomon Wise||DE||6'4, 230||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7859|
|Jarrod McLin||DE||6'3, 225||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7993|
|Rivals||247 Comp.||GP||Tackles||% of Team||TFL||Sacks||Int||PBU||FF||FR|
|Marcos Curry||LB||5'11, 220||Jr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7633||12||57.0||8.4%||4.5||2.0||0||2||1||1|
|Dalton Miller||LB||5'11, 220||Sr.||NR||NR||9||8.5||1.2%||0.0||0.0||0||1||0||0|
|Kevin Garcia||LB||6'2, 225||Sr.||NR||NR||10||6.0||0.9%||0.5||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Steven Holman||LB||5'11, 220||Jr.||NR||NR||4||3.0||0.4%||0.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Ronnie Feist (LSU)||LB||6'2, 240||Sr.||3 stars (5.7)||0.9079|
|La'Kel Bass||LB||6'1, 225||Jr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7544|
|Les Maruo||LB||6'1, 235||Jr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7483|
|Anthony Hickey||LB||6'4, 235||Jr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7000|
7. The reinforcements arrive
Tackle Jason Neill was a genuinely unique weapon, an ace pass rusher from the interior. But besides Neill, UTSA returns most of the more disruptive forces from last year's front six. Lanky pass rusher Marcus Davenport is decent, and tackle Kevin Strong Jr. flashed potential as a freshman. And linebacker Marcos Curry was a decent attacker in his first year as a starter. His pursuit was key to a run defense that didn't make many stops behind the line but rarely gave up big plays.
The returning producers are not without upside, but the newcomers are pretty intriguing. Wilson added LSU graduate transfer Ronnie Feist and JUCO tackle Franklin Uesi, in addition to two JUCO linebackers (Leslie Maruo, Anthony Hickey) who signed in December. And it wouldn't hurt if either of two freshman DEs (Solomon Wise, Jarrod McLin) were ready to play an early role. UTSA got pushed around a little bit but pursued the ball well. Early-impact transfers could raise the unit's ceiling a bit, but there's a chance these pieces don't all gel for another year.
|Rivals||247 Comp.||GP||Tackles||% of Team||TFL||Sacks||Int||PBU||FF||FR|
|Nate Gaines||S||6'2, 195||Jr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7852||10||62.0||9.1%||0.5||0||3||6||0||0|
|Michael Egwuagu||S||6'0, 225||Sr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7652||12||49.5||7.3%||3.5||1.5||3||5||0||0|
|Chase Dahlquist (2014)||S||6'0, 195||Jr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7600||12||20.0||3.0%||2||0||0||0||0||0|
|Stanley Dye Jr.||CB||5'9, 170||So.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7633||12||15.5||2.3%||0.5||0||0||0||0||1|
|Darryl Godfrey||S||5'11, 180||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8059||10||12.0||1.8%||0||0||0||1||1||0|
|Aneas Henricks||CB||5'11, 180||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8169||12||10.5||1.5%||0||0||0||2||0||0|
|Justin Chavez||S||5'10, 190||Jr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7606||7||8.0||1.2%||0||0||0||0||0||0|
|C.J. Levine||S||5'10, 180||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7859||12||7.5||1.1%||0||0||0||0||0||0|
|Carl Austin III||S||6'0, 185||So.||2 stars (5.2)||NR||11||7.0||1.0%||0||0||0||0||0||0|
|JaColbie Butler||CB||5'9, 180||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8068||8||2.5||0.4%||0||0||0||0||0||0|
|Deandre Williams||CB||5'10, 175||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8111||3||2.5||0.4%||0||0||0||0||0||0|
|Isaiah Santos||S||5'11, 200||So.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7652||11||2.5||0.4%||0||0||0||0||0||0|
|Andrew Martel||S||6'0, 195||RSFr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7983|
|Jaquelle Green||S||6'1, 220||Fr.||4 stars (5.8)||0.8662|
|Teddrick McGhee||CB||6'1, 180||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8006|
|Brenndan Johnson||CB||5'11, 175||Fr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7853|
8. Nickel, dime, quarter ... silver dollar?
Is that what we would call an eight-man secondary? Because if the linemen and linebackers aren't impressive, Golding could just choose to employ more DBs. He might have the depth for it, at least at safety. Three well-touted freshmen (including aforementioned four-star Jaquelle Green) join a secondary that thrust seven freshmen and three sophomores into action.
The cornerback position, stocked mostly with sophomores, is an enormous question mark and may prevent Golding from being too tactically aggressive. But safety is loaded. Nate Gaines and Michael Eguwuagu combined for four tackles for loss and 17 passes defensed, and for as impressive as his recruiting profile is, Green will face competition for playing time.
|Yannis Routsas||6'3, 200||So.||63||39.0||4||23||17||63.5%|
|Daniel Portillo||6'0, 170||Jr.||4||37.3||0||0||2||50.0%|
|Daniel Portillo||6'0, 170||Jr.||41||63.3||16||1||39.0%|
|Victor Falcon||5'11, 200||So.||15||64.3||9||0||60.0%|
|Daniel Portillo||6'0, 170||Jr.||27-32||9-10||90.0%||1-7||14.3%|
|Victor Falcon||5'11, 200||So.||2-2||0-0||N/A||0-1||0.0%|
|Brett Winnegan||KR||5'9, 185||So.||36||20.8||0|
|Derrick Dick||KR||5'8, 185||So.||26||22.8||0|
|Derrick Dick||PR||5'8, 185||So.||16||4.7||0|
|JaBryce Taylor||PR||6'1, 220||Sr.||2||1.5||0|
|Special Teams S&P+||117|
|Field Goal Efficiency||117|
|Punt Return Success Rate||34|
|Kick Return Success Rate||67|
|Punt Success Rate||104|
|Kickoff Success Rate||40|
9. No idea where this kick is going
The special teams unit was stocked with freshmen and sophomores, and while that worked out relatively well in the return game, freshman Yannis Routsas' punts were high but short. The biggest problem, however, came in the place-kicking department. Daniel Portillo's decent touchback rate on kickoffs was a sign of a reasonably strong leg, but holy moly, was he inaccurate. He missed five PATs, and while he hit 90 percent of his field goals under 40 yards, he also missed six of seven over 40.
If Portillo can figure out how to aim his rocket a little better, this could turn into a decent unit.
2016 Schedule & Projection Factors
|Date||Opponent||Proj. S&P+ Rk||Proj. Margin||Win Probability|
|10-Sep||at Colorado State||96||-10.3||28%|
|24-Sep||at Old Dominion||111||-5.0||39%|
|5-Nov||at Middle Tennessee||90||-12.4||24%|
|12-Nov||at Louisiana Tech||84||-14.2||21%|
|19-Nov||at Texas A&M||25||-29.1||5%|
|Projected wins: 5.0|
|Five-Year F/+ Rk||-27.8% (109)|
|2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk||98 / 94|
|2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*||-1 / -2.2|
|2015 TO Luck/Game||+0.5|
|Returning Production (Off. / Def.)||60% (61%, 58%)|
|2015 Second-order wins (difference)||4.4 (-1.4)|
10. Wins to be found in the bottom of C-USA
The first week of C-USA previews has certainly uncovered a running theme: the bottom half of the conference is full of weaknesses, and any team that can separate itself a little bit can win quite a few games.
Despite projecting only 116th overall, UTSA is projected to win about five games, and it's not hard to see how that total could end up a bit higher (or, yes, lower). The Roadrunners have between a 39 and 68 percent chance of winning five different games and are between 20 and 30 percent in five others. If they end up performing in the No. 90 or 100 range instead, the win projection could move toward about seven or so.
This year only means so much for Wilson, however. The major draw in hiring him is the level of talent he can build into the infrastructure in a couple of years. Coker left him a pretty young roster, and he's already added a few high-upside youngsters to the pile. If UTSA improves and wins five to seven games this year, that says pretty incredible things about where the team could be in a couple of years. But if the Roadrunners struggle in 2016, that won't do much to affect future upside.