clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

UTSA football has a ton of untapped upside, and so does its new head coach

UTSA replaced program architect Larry Coker with an ace recruiter. Now we'll find out if the new guy can actually be a head coach.

Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. The Ed Orgeron coaching tree

Say this much for Ed Orgeron: he has an eye for talent. The famed defensive line coach, now at LSU, has struggled to land another head coaching job because of how disastrous his three-year tenure at Ole Miss was (from 2005-07, the fiery Orgeron went just 11-25 in Oxford). But while the failure seemed to mostly stem from a lack of organization or strong planning, Orgeron had an eye for coaching talent.

    Here are some of Orgeron's original 2005 hires:

  • Offensive coordinator: Noel Mazzone, who has since served in the same role at Arizona State, UCLA, and Texas A&M.
  • Receivers coach Matt Lubick, now Oregon's offensive coordinator.
  • Tight ends coach Matt Luke, now Ole Miss' offensive co-coordinator. (Orgeron also brought Dan Werner to town when Mazzone left; Werner is now co-coordinator with Luke. And when Luke left for a while -- everybody left at some point, which tells you about one of Orgeron's many issues -- he was replaced with an unknown high school coach named Hugh Freeze.)
  • Offensive line coach George DeLeone, now the OL coach for the Cleveland Browns. (When DeLeone left, Orgeron replaced him with Art Kehoe, Miami's longtime OL coach until 2016.)
  • Defensive line coach Joe Cullen, now the DL coach for the Baltimore Ravens.
  • Defensive backs coach Shawn Slocum, now Arizona State's associate head coach and OLBs coach. (When Slocum left, he was replaced with Tony Hughes, now Jackson State's head coach.)

Orgeron also brought Frank Wilson to Oxford as running backs coach. To that point, Wilson was an unknown at the college level. He had spent four seasons as the head coach of O.P. Walker High in New Orleans and was named Louisiana's coach of the year in 2002. He helped to produce more than 20 Division I prospects, and in 2004, he had begun a year as the director of athletics for the New Orleans Public School system.

A product of Nicholls State, Wilson had never coached at the Division I level before. But he had connections and a track record, and as good a recruiter as Orgeron was (and still is), Wilson may have been even better. And his reputation has only grown over time. He ended up on Lane Kiffin's 2009 Tennessee staff, then landed with LSU. For six seasons as LSU's RBs coach and recruiting coordinator, Wilson has helped to sign top class after top class; he has also developed quite a few big-time running backs.

It was time for Wilson to get a head coaching job. He had proved all he was going to prove as a position coach. He was discussed for a couple of jobs in Louisiana, but he ended up somewhere nearly as fertile: San Antonio, where he will serve as only the second head coach in UTSA history.

2. We know Wilson can recruit

We have no idea how good Wilson might be as a head coach. Plenty of ace recruiters have failed in this role. He's done about as much as Orgeron had when Orgeron landed in Oxford (though he does have head coaching experience at the high school level). But while he's not going to start inking top-20 classes at UTSA, he's almost certainly going to raise the talent level. He's begun already, actually.

In the week before Signing Day, Wilson landed six late commits. Among them:

  • On January 27, he got a commitment from Gulfport (Miss.) lineman Josh Oatis, a high-two-star prospect per both Rivals and the 247Sports Composite.
  • On January 30, cornerback Teddrick McGhee of Memphis came aboard. He is a 247 three-star.
  • On January 31, lanky high-two-star defensive end Solomon Wise of Coppell (Tex.) committed.
  • On February 1, three-star JUCO receiver Marquez McNair joined the class.
  • And on February 3, Wilson landed safety Jaquelle Green of Biloxi, a mid-three-star per 247 and a four-star per Rivals.

Going by 247, these five players are among the nine most highly touted in the signing class. Not bad considering Wilson was hired on January 15, less than three weeks before Signing Day.

So now he has to coach. Either he will struggle like Orgeron did and leave his successor a pretty stocked cupboard, or he will show that he's learned from previous bosses' mistakes and thrive. All we know right now is that he can still recruit and that his assistant coach hires have been sensible and interesting.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 2-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 111 | Final S&P+ Rk: 113
Date Opponent Opp. F/+ Rk Score W-L Percentile
Performance
Win
Expectancy
vs. S&P+ Performance
vs. Vegas
3-Sep at Arizona 77 32-42 L 40% 46% +15.2 +22.0
12-Sep Kansas State 81 3-30 L 9% 3% +0.9 -10.0
19-Sep at Oklahoma State 40 14-69 L 4% 0% -24.6 -30.5
26-Sep Colorado State 86 31-33 L 57% 68% +9.3 +7.0
3-Oct at UTEP 125 25-6 W 44% 76% +2.0 +16.0
10-Oct at Louisiana Tech 57 31-34 L 37% 19% +14.3 +7.5
17-Oct at Southern Miss 56 10-32 L 4% 0% -27.6 -11.5
31-Oct at North Texas 126 23-30 L 16% 39% -21.8 -16.5
7-Nov Old Dominion 117 31-36 L 33% 52% -9.9 -15.0
14-Nov at Charlotte 124 30-27 W 27% 51% -0.2 -2.0
21-Nov Rice 123 34-24 W 58% 90% +2.0 +7.0
28-Nov Middle Tennessee 82 7-42 L 3% 0% -29.6 -23.0

Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 20.1 113 34.5 103
Points Per Game 22.6 104 33.8 101

3. Roadrunners aren't big on flying

In 2015, UTSA had to replace its starting quarterback, top running back, five of the top seven receiving targets, five starting offensive linemen, five of the top six defensive linemen, and four of the top six defensive backs. Coker had to deal with the issue nearly every start-up does: the first set of recruits -- a mix of five-year guys who signed before the program had even played a game, along with quite a few JUCO stopgaps -- all departs at once, leaving a crater on the depth chart.

Coker attempted to balance classes out with a mixture of high school signees, JUCOs, and transfers, but his grand chemistry experiment for 2015 mostly failed. That UTSA actually ranked better than 15 other FBS teams despite such turnover was a mild accomplishment, but the Roadrunners' percentile chart above looks like a bird trying to fly and failing.

UTSA was competitive against Arizona, the direct opposite of competitive against Kansas State and Oklahoma State, then decent to good for three straight weeks. Then came another crater (blowout loss to Southern Miss, tight loss to awful North Texas), another rebound (two straight wins), and a season-ending dud against MTSU. A 1-4 record in games decided by one possession kept the win total tamped down and perhaps aided in Coker's decision to retire.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
Raw Category Rk Opp. Adj. Category Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.22 87 IsoPPP+ 79.5 118
EFFICIENCY Succ. Rt. 39.0% 98 Succ. Rt. + 88.8 111
FIELD POSITION Def. Avg. FP 30.8 90 Def. FP+ 31.6 104
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity 3.9 111 Redzone S&P+ 94.9 97
TURNOVERS EXPECTED 22.5 ACTUAL 23 +0.5
Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 98 117 111 118
RUSHING 68 107 106 97
PASSING 96 116 108 121
Standard Downs 111 95 117
Passing Downs 120 120 116
Q1 Rk 124 1st Down Rk 120
Q2 Rk 127 2nd Down Rk 116
Q3 Rk 68 3rd Down Rk 123
Q4 Rk 90

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2016
Year
Rivals 247 Comp. Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Dalton Sturm 6'1, 180 Jr. NR NR 125 212 1354 13 7 59.0% 32 13.1% 4.8
Blake Bogenschutz 81 137 897 4 4 59.1% 10 6.8% 5.6
Russell Bellomy 4 10 39 0 0 40.0% 1 9.1% 3.0
Manny Harris 5'11, 230 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7844
Jaylon Henderson 6'1, 205 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8205

4. Frank Scelfo has coached a lot of good quarterbacks

New offensive coordinator Frank Scelfo's résumé sneaks up on you a bit. After a decade and a half of serving as a high school assistant in Louisiana and Texas, he landed on his brother Chris' staff at Tulane, first as tight ends coach, then as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. He spent three years in the same role under Derek Dooley at Louisiana Tech, spent two as Arizona's QBs coach, then spent four years as an assistant for the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Let's put that another way: at Tulane, Scelfo coached Patrick Ramsey, J.P. Losman, and, briefly, Shaun King. At Louisiana Tech, he tutored Ross Jenkins to a 136 passer rating in 2009. At Arizona, he mentored Nick Foles and Matt Scott. And in Jacksonville, he's been a part of Blake Bortles' development.

It's not like "He's coached these guys" is a direct substitute for "He's why they were good," obviously, but Scelfo has at least played a role in the success of a lot of QBs. And while Tulane scored at least 300 points in a season five times during his eight-year OC tenure, the Green Wave have done so only once since he left.

Now we'll see what Scelfo can do with Dalton Sturm, Manny Harris, and Jaylon Henderson. UTSA scored at least 30 points in six games last year, and Sturm was at the helm for four of them. The walk-on from Goliad (Tex.) was dramatically up-and-down -- 171 passer rating against Louisiana Tech, 67 vs. Southern Miss, 143 vs. ODU, 89 vs. Charlotte, 242 vs. Rice, 109 vs. MTSU -- and took far too many sacks. But he showed potential as both a passer and runner. Meanwhile, the stocky Harris was a decorated local high school quarterback, and Henderson was one of Coker's more well-regarded signees.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016
Year
Rivals 247 Comp. Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles Fum.
Lost
Jarveon Williams RB 5'9, 200 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8006 173 1042 8 6.0 7.7 37.6% 0 0
Dalton Sturm QB 6'1, 180 Jr. NR NR 96 556 1 5.8 4.6 50.0% 3 2
Jalen Rhodes RB 5'9, 185 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.8063 60 242 3 4.0 2.6 33.3% 2 2
Tyrell Clay RB 5'9, 200 Jr. NR NR 43 197 3 4.6 4.1 30.2% 0 0
Blake Bogenschutz QB 33 103 1 3.1 5.7 27.3% 4 2
Aaron Grubb WR 12 56 0 4.7 2.6 33.3% 1 1
Kerry Thomas Jr. WR 6'0, 200 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7994 7 44 0 6.3 5.7 42.9% 0 0
Derrick Dick WR 5'8, 185 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7866 7 14 0 2.0 1.2 57.1% 3 1
Russell Bellomy QB 6 27 0 4.5 4.9 33.3% 0 0
Brian Vaughn RB 5'6, 175 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) NR 4 16 0 4.0 0.8 50.0% 0 0
Corbin White RB 5'11, 235 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7726 4 14 0 3.5 2.1 50.0% 1 1
Brett Winnegan RB 5'9, 185 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7893
Halen Steward FB 5'10, 260 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7583







Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016
Year
Rivals 247 Comp. Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
Yds/
Target
%SD Success
Rate
IsoPPP
Kerry Thomas Jr. WR 6'0, 200 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7994 80 52 541 65.0% 24.0% 6.8 56.3% 45.0% 1.40
David Morgan II TE 76 45 566 59.2% 22.8% 7.4 55.3% 50.0% 1.41
Aaron Grubb SLOT 63 42 344 66.7% 18.9% 5.5 55.6% 42.9% 1.21
JaBryce Taylor WR 6'1, 220 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8200 46 29 472 63.0% 13.8% 10.3 47.8% 43.5% 2.29
Aron Taylor WR 6'1, 195 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8006 15 11 147 73.3% 4.5% 9.8 53.3% 66.7% 1.34
Jarveon Williams RB 5'9, 200 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8006 12 9 60 75.0% 3.6% 5.0 58.3% 33.3% 1.24
Kenny Bias WR 11 4 54 36.4% 3.3% 4.9 45.5% 18.2% 2.44
Jalen Rhodes RB 5'9, 185 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.8063 8 5 47 62.5% 2.4% 5.9 87.5% 37.5% 1.48
Brady Jones SLOT 5'10, 180 Jr. NR NR 6 5 52 83.3% 1.8% 8.7 50.0% 50.0% 1.53
Derrick Dick WR 5'8, 185 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7866 2 1 5 50.0% 0.6% 2.5 50.0% 50.0% 0.53
Greg Campbell Jr. WR 6'0, 180 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7611 2 1 3 50.0% 0.6% 1.5 50.0% 0.0% 0.00
Trevor Stevens TE 6'4, 245 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) NR
Dannon Cavil WR 6'1, 210 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8627
Peyton Hall WR 5'10, 180 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7991
Triston Crossland TE 6'2, 235 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7693
Shaq Williams TE 6'3, 245 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7794
Matt Guidry WR 5'8, 160 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) NR
Austin Blake-Smith TE 6'5, 240 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.8033
Marquez McNair WR 6'1, 185 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8263
Jesse Ebozue WR 6'2, 195 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8117

5. At least a couple of home run hitters

UTSA entered 2015 with almost nothing proven at the skill positions but with quite a few intriguing candidates. A couple emerged as potential stars. Jarveon Williams wasn't incredibly efficient but proved to be a home run hitter in the open field. He rushed 13 times for 170 yards against Colorado State, 19 for 186 against Charlotte, and 22 for 163 against Rice.

Meanwhile, the receiving corps returns an interesting trio. Kerry Thomas Jr. emerged as a solid possession receiver, and JaBryce Taylor had some explosive moments -- one catch for 40 yards against CSU, three for 99 against Louisiana Tech, four for 70 against MTSU.

Williams is potentially one of C-USA's best backs, and the offensive line returns three starters (and two others with starting experience). But if Scelfo wants to get pass-happy, newcomers could make that a viable option. Three-star JUCOs Marquez McNair and Austin Blake-Smith, Oklahoma transfer Dannon Cavil, and three-star freshman Jesse Ebozue all appear to have solid upside. If a couple of them are ready to contribute early, the receiving corps is in solid shape.

There are still obvious question marks on this offense. Sturm really has yet to play two consecutive good games, Williams is all-or-nothing, relying on newcomers in the receiving corps is dangerous, and either Sturm has to get rid of the ball sooner or the line has to figure out how to give him more time. But at least there is decent upside to go with the downside.

Offensive Line

Category Adj.
Line Yds
Std.
Downs

LY/carry
Pass.
Downs

LY/carry
Opp.
Rate
Power
Success
Rate
Stuff
Rate
Adj.
Sack Rate
Std.
Downs

Sack Rt.
Pass.
Downs

Sack Rt.
Team 98.7 2.96 2.98 37.6% 75.7% 19.5% 53.5 9.6% 12.3%
Rank 80 55 88 85 18 70 126 123 123
Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016
Year
Rivals 247 Comp. 2015 Starts Career Starts Honors/Notes
William Cavanaugh RG 12 27
Jordan Gray RT 12 20
Reed Darragh LT 6'4, 285 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7600 12 12
Kyle McKinney LG 6'4, 300 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7644 9 9
Austin Pratt LG 6'2, 300 Jr. NR NR 7 7
Juan Perez-Isidoro C 6'2, 280 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7600 5 5
Clayton Woods C 6'2, 295 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8111 2 2
Zach Hester LG 1 2
Gabriel Casillas LT 6'5, 280 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7800 0 0
Cody Cole RT 6'5, 280 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) NR 0 0
David Anzaldua OG 6'6, 350 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8060 0 0
Alex Snow OG 6'2, 295 RSFr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7983

Stefan Beard OL 6'4, 315 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7852

Tanner Myers OL 6'7, 310 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8006

Josh Oatis OL 6'6, 280 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7859


SIGN UP FOR OUR COLLEGE FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER

Get all kinds of college football stories, rumors, game coverage, and Jim Harbaugh oddity in your inbox every day.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
Raw Category Rk Opp. Adj. Category Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.24 61 IsoPPP+ 94.9 84
EFFICIENCY Succ. Rt. 43.7% 88 Succ. Rt. + 91.8 95
FIELD POSITION Off. Avg. FP 29.4 82 Off. FP+ 28.4 96
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity 4.0 34 Redzone S&P+ 100.2 70
TURNOVERS EXPECTED 20.3 ACTUAL 22.0 +1.7
Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 101 91 95 84
RUSHING 67 69 78 60
PASSING 118 106 110 108
Standard Downs 79 87 72
Passing Downs 106 95 105
Q1 Rk 62 1st Down Rk 105
Q2 Rk 99 2nd Down Rk 55
Q3 Rk 96 3rd Down Rk 117
Q4 Rk 97

6. Who's Pete Golding?

Wilson turned to a veteran to lead his offense, but he went back to his small-school roots to choose his defensive coordinator. Pete Golding is a Delta State grad in his mid-30s; Golding spent the last two seasons as Southern Miss' safeties coach, but before that he was a lower-level dynamo.

In four years as defensive coordinator at Delta State (2010-11) and Southeastern Louisiana (2012-13), Golding established a pretty clear identity. His first year at SELA was a struggle, but in each of the other three seasons, his defenses allowed 4.3 yards per carry or fewer and a sub-120 passer rating with a havoc rate of 18 percent or higher. (The havoc rate peaked at 20.3 percent in 2011 at DSU; 20.3 percent would have ranked ninth in FBS last year.)

Golding inherits a defense that was pretty passive last year -- UTSA was relatively inefficient defensively (more against the pass than the run) but prevented big plays for the most part and improved in the redzone. The Roadrunners return four of their top six linemen, one of the two linebackers who actually played, and eight of 12 defensive backs from a secondary that was young and constantly shuffling.

Golding's track record suggests he's going to want to be quite a bit more aggressive with this personnel; we'll see if he can engineer some early improvement, or whether he needs a year to get his footing, as was the case at Southeastern.

Defensive Line

Category Adj.
Line Yds
Std.
Downs

LY/carry
Pass.
Downs

LY/carry
Opp.
Rate
Power
Success
Rate
Stuff
Rate
Adj.
Sack Rate
Std.
Downs

Sack Rt.
Pass.
Downs

Sack Rt.
Team 87.1 3.12 3.37 37.6% 70.2% 15.2% 77.1 4.3% 5.3%
Rank 118 97 81 57 95 114 102 93 100
Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016
Year
Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jason Neill DT 12 46.0 6.7% 11.0 8.5 0 0 1 0
Marcus Davenport DE 6'6, 225 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7685 11 39.5 5.8% 7.5 4.0 0 3 2 0
Brian Price DT 10 24.0 3.5% 2.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Kevin Strong Jr. DT 6'3, 285 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7652 12 21.5 3.2% 6.5 2.5 0 2 0 0
Jonathan Tuiolosega DT 6'1, 285 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7611 12 17.5 2.6% 2.5 0.5 0 1 0 0
Romario Napoles DE 6'0, 230 Sr. NR NR 12 13.0 1.9% 2.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Justyn Eddins DE 10 8.0 1.2% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Vontrell King-Williams DT 6'2, 320 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7800 12 7.5 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Kennedy Ubabuike DT 8 6.5 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Ben Kane DE 6'3, 240 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7806 9 5.5 0.8% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
T.J. King DE 6'2, 260 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7926
DeQuarius Henry DE 6'4, 220 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7583
Franklin Uesi DT 6'3, 280 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7744
Solomon Wise DE 6'4, 230 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7859
Jarrod McLin DE 6'3, 225 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7993








Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016
Year
Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Marcos Curry LB 5'11, 220 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7633 12 57.0 8.4% 4.5 2.0 0 2 1 1
Drew Douglas LB 10 57.0 8.4% 4.5 1.0 0 2 0 0
Dalton Miller LB 5'11, 220 Sr. NR NR 9 8.5 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Kevin Garcia LB 6'2, 225 Sr. NR NR 10 6.0 0.9% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Steven Holman LB 5'11, 220 Jr. NR NR 4 3.0 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Ronnie Feist (LSU) LB 6'2, 240 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.9079
La'Kel Bass LB 6'1, 225 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7544
Les Maruo LB 6'1, 235 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7483
Anthony Hickey LB 6'4, 235 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7000








7. The reinforcements arrive

Tackle Jason Neill was a genuinely unique weapon, an ace pass rusher from the interior. But besides Neill, UTSA returns most of the more disruptive forces from last year's front six. Lanky pass rusher Marcus Davenport is decent, and tackle Kevin Strong Jr. flashed potential as a freshman. And linebacker Marcos Curry was a decent attacker in his first year as a starter. His pursuit was key to a run defense that didn't make many stops behind the line but rarely gave up big plays.

The returning producers are not without upside, but the newcomers are pretty intriguing. Wilson added LSU graduate transfer Ronnie Feist and JUCO tackle Franklin Uesi, in addition to two JUCO linebackers (Leslie Maruo, Anthony Hickey) who signed in December. And it wouldn't hurt if either of two freshman DEs (Solomon Wise, Jarrod McLin) were ready to play an early role. UTSA got pushed around a little bit but pursued the ball well. Early-impact transfers could raise the unit's ceiling a bit, but there's a chance these pieces don't all gel for another year.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016
Year
Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Duke Wheeler S 11 77.5 11.4% 1 0 0 3 1 0
Nate Gaines S 6'2, 195 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7852 10 62.0 9.1% 0.5 0 3 6 0 0
Michael Egwuagu S 6'0, 225 Sr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7652 12 49.5 7.3% 3.5 1.5 3 5 0 0
Bennett Okotcha CB 12 43.0 6.3% 0 0 4 9 1 0
Mauricio Sanchez S 10 30.0 4.4% 1 0 1 1 2 0
Chase Dahlquist (2014) S 6'0, 195 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7600 12 20.0 3.0% 2 0 0 0 0 0
Trevor Baker CB 8 15.5 2.3% 2 0 3 7 0 0
Stanley Dye Jr. CB 5'9, 170 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7633 12 15.5 2.3% 0.5 0 0 0 0 1
Darryl Godfrey S 5'11, 180 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8059 10 12.0 1.8% 0 0 0 1 1 0
Aneas Henricks CB 5'11, 180 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8169 12 10.5 1.5% 0 0 0 2 0 0
Justin Chavez S 5'10, 190 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7606 7 8.0 1.2% 0 0 0 0 0 0
C.J. Levine S 5'10, 180 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7859 12 7.5 1.1% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Carl Austin III S 6'0, 185 So. 2 stars (5.2) NR 11 7.0 1.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0
JaColbie Butler CB 5'9, 180 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8068 8 2.5 0.4% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Deandre Williams CB 5'10, 175 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8111 3 2.5 0.4% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Isaiah Santos S 5'11, 200 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7652 11 2.5 0.4% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Andrew Martel S 6'0, 195 RSFr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7983
Jaquelle Green S 6'1, 220 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8662
Teddrick McGhee CB 6'1, 180 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8006
Brenndan Johnson CB 5'11, 175 Fr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7853

8. Nickel, dime, quarter ... silver dollar?

Is that what we would call an eight-man secondary? Because if the linemen and linebackers aren't impressive, Golding could just choose to employ more DBs. He might have the depth for it, at least at safety. Three well-touted freshmen (including aforementioned four-star Jaquelle Green) join a secondary that thrust seven freshmen and three sophomores into action.

The cornerback position, stocked mostly with sophomores, is an enormous question mark and may prevent Golding from being too tactically aggressive. But safety is loaded. Nate Gaines and Michael Eguwuagu combined for four tackles for loss and 17 passes defensed, and for as impressive as his recruiting profile is, Green will face competition for playing time.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2016
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Yannis Routsas 6'3, 200 So. 63 39.0 4 23 17 63.5%
Daniel Portillo 6'0, 170 Jr. 4 37.3 0 0 2 50.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2016
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB OOB TB%
Daniel Portillo 6'0, 170 Jr. 41 63.3 16 1 39.0%
Victor Falcon 5'11, 200 So. 15 64.3 9 0 60.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2016
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Daniel Portillo 6'0, 170 Jr. 27-32 9-10 90.0% 1-7 14.3%
Victor Falcon 5'11, 200 So. 2-2 0-0 N/A 0-1 0.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2016
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Brett Winnegan KR 5'9, 185 So. 36 20.8 0
Derrick Dick KR 5'8, 185 So. 26 22.8 0
Derrick Dick PR 5'8, 185 So. 16 4.7 0
JaBryce Taylor PR 6'1, 220 Sr. 2 1.5 0
Category Rk
Special Teams S&P+ 117
Field Goal Efficiency 117
Punt Return Success Rate 34
Kick Return Success Rate 67
Punt Success Rate 104
Kickoff Success Rate 40

9. No idea where this kick is going

The special teams unit was stocked with freshmen and sophomores, and while that worked out relatively well in the return game, freshman Yannis Routsas' punts were high but short. The biggest problem, however, came in the place-kicking department. Daniel Portillo's decent touchback rate on kickoffs was a sign of a reasonably strong leg, but holy moly, was he inaccurate. He missed five PATs, and while he hit 90 percent of his field goals under 40 yards, he also missed six of seven over 40.

If Portillo can figure out how to aim his rocket a little better, this could turn into a decent unit.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability
3-Sep Alabama State NR 29.8 96%
10-Sep at Colorado State 96 -10.3 28%
17-Sep Arizona State 57 -13.4 22%
24-Sep at Old Dominion 111 -5.0 39%
8-Oct Southern Miss 72 -10.5 27%
15-Oct at Rice 119 -3.2 43%
22-Oct UTEP 126 7.3 66%
29-Oct North Texas 128 8.2 68%
5-Nov at Middle Tennessee 90 -12.4 24%
12-Nov at Louisiana Tech 84 -14.2 21%
19-Nov at Texas A&M 25 -29.1 5%
26-Nov Charlotte 123 5.2 62%
Projected wins: 5.0
Five-Year F/+ Rk -27.8% (109)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 98 / 94
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -1 / -2.2
2015 TO Luck/Game +0.5
Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 60% (61%, 58%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference) 4.4 (-1.4)

10. Wins to be found in the bottom of C-USA

The first week of C-USA previews has certainly uncovered a running theme: the bottom half of the conference is full of weaknesses, and any team that can separate itself a little bit can win quite a few games.

Despite projecting only 116th overall, UTSA is projected to win about five games, and it's not hard to see how that total could end up a bit higher (or, yes, lower). The Roadrunners have between a 39 and 68 percent chance of winning five different games and are between 20 and 30 percent in five others. If they end up performing in the No. 90 or 100 range instead, the win projection could move toward about seven or so.

This year only means so much for Wilson, however. The major draw in hiring him is the level of talent he can build into the infrastructure in a couple of years. Coker left him a pretty young roster, and he's already added a few high-upside youngsters to the pile. If UTSA improves and wins five to seven games this year, that says pretty incredible things about where the team could be in a couple of years. But if the Roadrunners struggle in 2016, that won't do much to affect future upside.