Old Dominion football is playing the long game, but could make its first bowl run in 2016

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1. Playing the long game

During the conference realignment hullabaloo, Conference USA basically tried to stake out territory.

In 2010, before the shuffling began, the conference was the proposed Metro Conference minus the power teams; you had a few major media markets (Houston via Houston and Rice, Memphis, Dallas via SMU, New Orleans via Tulane, Orlando via UCF), with some respectable mid-majors and medium-sized markets (ECU, Marshall, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UAB, UTEP). It was always a conference based more on metro areas than small college towns, but it wasn't the blatant goal.

Now look at it. ECU, Houston, Memphis, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, and UCF were plucked away by what is now the AAC. And in an effort to remain at 12 teams, C-USA took two steps.

A. Raid the Sun Belt. FAU, FIU, MTSU, North Texas, and Western Kentucky, half of the 2010 SBC, are now in Conference USA. (C-USA also saved Louisiana Tech from the WAC.)

B. Dream big with FCS programs and start-ups. Charlotte started a program and got immediate inclusion. UTSA got the call-up after just two seasons as a program. And Old Dominion, deep in the talent-rich Norfolk-Newport News-Hampton-Virginia Beach corridor, moved up from FCS.

From a territory perspective, these moves made perfect sense. C-USA now has flag posts near many of football's talent bases -- Dallas (UNT), San Antonio (UTSA), Houston (Rice), Miami (FIU, FAU), Charlotte (UC), and Norfolk-and-thereabouts (ODU). This seems like a good thing, and even if the cable television bubble is deflating, it can't hurt from the perspective of TV revenue.

Now it just has to wait for the football to improve. Between the addition of slow-building start-ups and the 2015 collapses of UNT, UTEP, and Rice, Conference USA's product was dreadful last fall, worse even than the Sun Belt, which added solid former FCS programs like Appalachian State and Georgia Southern.

Injuries and youth played a role in C-USA's miserable form -- in virtually every one of these previews so far, I've talked about an offense or defense that got obliterated by injury -- but the optimist would say that C-USA's moves were done with the long-term in mind.

It's the same for ODU, really. After reaching 6-6 with a dynamite offense in 2014 (57th in Off. S&P+), Bobby Wilder's Monarchs had to replace all-star quarterback Taylor Heinicke and a large portion of a bad defense. But Wilder only signed three JUCO transfers, building the foundation with mostly four-year recruits. And after injuries and youth sent the offense reeling (109th in Off. S&P+), he signed no JUCOs in the 2016 class.

ODU is, like its conference, playing the long game. And as long as you win enough in the interim, that can pay off. The Monarchs went 5-7 thanks to a combination of weak opponents (six opponents ranked 111th or worse in 2015) and a 3-1 record in one-possession games, and goodness knows C-USA isn't projected to be any better this year.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 1-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 117 | Final S&P+ Rk: 110
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	at Eastern Michigan	122	38-34	W	35%	61%	-4.6	-0.5
12-Sep	Norfolk State	N/A	24-10	W	54%	99%	-4.3
19-Sep	NC State	49	14-38	L	13%	1%	-10.7	-5.0
26-Sep	Appalachian State	42	0-49	L	6%	0%	-49.2	-41.5
3-Oct	at Marshall	58	7-27	L	7%	0%	-7.9	-1.5
17-Oct	Charlotte	124	37-34	W	33%	60%	-7.1	-4.0
24-Oct	at Florida International	112	12-41	L	14%	7%	-20.4	-16.5
31-Oct	Western Kentucky	15	30-55	L	14%	0%	-4.5	-1.0
7-Nov	at UTSA	111	36-31	W	34%	48%	+9.9	+15.0
14-Nov	UTEP	125	31-21	W	46%	77%	-1.8	+5.5
21-Nov	at Southern Miss	56	31-56	L	16%	1%	-3.4	-4.0
28-Nov	Florida Atlantic	96	31-33	L	37%	44%	+2.4	+2.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	21.4	109	35.2	108
Points Per Game	24.3	98	35.8	106

2. Bad against good

It seems logical that teams would fare better against bad teams than good ones, but as opponent adjustments show, that's not necessarily the case. The percentile figures above are adjusted for the quality of the team you play, and many teams will end up filling more of a "good against good, bad against bad" niche.

Most teams in Conference USA, however, did not. Perhaps because of the depth issues associated with youth and injuries, there weren't a lot of "good against good" teams. ODU's a pretty good example.

• Average Percentile Performance (vs. S&P+ top 60): 11% (record: 0-5 | average score: Opp 45, ODU 16)
• Average Percentile Performance (vs. S&P+ No. 90+): 36% (record: 5-2 | average score: ODU 30, Opp 28)

The Monarchs were never great, topping the 50th percentile only once all year, but while they ended up grading in the middle of the C-USA pack because they weren't awful quite as frequently as others, they still laid some eggs. And aside from a baffling blowout loss to FIU, most of those eggs came against the teams with a pulse.

ODU had a chance to reach bowl eligibility, but a terribly slow start against FAU doomed the bid. The Owls jumped out to a 24-3 lead, and while the Monarchs surged ahead in the third quarter, two fourth-quarter field goals gave FAU a 33-31 win. From the "bad against good" perspective, the loss perhaps saved ODU from a bowl blowout, but that's small consolation. Going 5-2 against teams in FBS' lowest quadrant, instead of going 6-1, knocked the Monarchs under .500.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.40	12	IsoPPP+	93.7	92
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	37.3%	109	Succ. Rt. +	85.0	117
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	36.0	128	Def. FP+	36.1	127
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.2	94	Redzone S&P+	88.6	111
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.4		ACTUAL	19	-3.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	91	107	117	92
RUSHING	93	101	120	58
PASSING	68	105	98	106
Standard Downs		100	118	72
Passing Downs		103	106	102

Q1 Rk	114	1st Down Rk	110
Q2 Rk	96	2nd Down Rk	92
Q3 Rk	95	3rd Down Rk	102
Q4 Rk	110

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2016 Year

Rivals

247 Comp.

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Shuler Bentley

6'1, 202

So.

2 stars (5.4)

0.8161

140

269

1432

12

6

52.0%

18

6.3%

4.6

David Washington

6'3, 199

Sr.

3 stars (5.5)

NR

94

161

1155

8

3

58.4%

9

5.3%

6.5

Joey Verhaegh

6'3, 210

Jr.

NR

0.7500

Blake LaRussa

5'10, 186

RSFr.

NR

NR

Drayton Arnold

6'0, 185

Fr.

2 stars (5.4)

0.8013

3. Protecting your young QB

Even with Heinicke, Old Dominion's passing game was based more in efficiency than big plays. In 2014, Heinicke completed 64 percent at 12 yards per completion. But he had a big-play threat in Antonio Vaughan (16.2 yards per catch), which stretched the field a bit for efficiency options like David Washington and tight end Melvin Vaughn.

In 2015, with redshirt freshman Shuler Bentley behind center, ODU offensive coordinator Brian Scott played it safe. The Monarchs employed the "save your QB" approach of throwing frequently on standard downs and running semi-frequently on passing downs. This approach can save your young QB from having to make many big throws under pressure.

Of course, it helps if the first-down passes actually go somewhere. On first down, Bentley completed 52 percent of his throws at just 11.3 yards per completion. He was sometimes bailed out by a big run by Ray Lawry (who's been one of the nation's more explosive backs for a couple of years now) or Jeremy Cox, but the pass-first approach just resulted in a ton of passing downs and inefficiency.

In theory, things could open up in 2016. Bentley's back, as is David Washington (the part-time receiver who took over for Bentley midseason before getting hurt), and 2015 JUCO transfer Joey Verhaegh. And if the Monarchs can keep just about every skill position player from getting hurt simultaneously, as seemed to happen late in 2015, they could have enough weapons to damage opponents.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Ray Lawry	RB	5'10, 201	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8402	194	1136	11	5.9	6.0	40.7%	3	2
Jeremy Cox	RB	5'11, 207	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7917	72	369	1	5.1	6.1	36.1%	0	0
David Washington	QB/WR	6'3, 199	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR	31	176	0	5.7	3.7	51.6%	5	1
Shuler Bentley	QB	6'1, 202	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8161	27	90	2	3.3	5.0	25.9%	6	4
Kesean Strong	RB/WR	5'10, 179	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8044	27	75	1	2.8	1.5	37.0%	2	1
Zach Pascal	WR					15	165	1	11.0	12.1	53.3%	2	2
Brandon Simmons	RB	5'9, 190	Jr.	NR	NR
Nick Ferrari-Smith	RB	5'9, 186	RSFr.	NR	NR

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Zach Pascal	WR	6'2, 214	Sr.	NR	NR	120	69	975	57.5%	30.4%	8.1	58.3%	45.8%	1.68
Jonathan Duhart	WR	6'3, 212	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7733	80	47	636	58.8%	20.3%	8.0	61.3%	48.8%	1.54
Blair Roberts (2013)	WR	6'2, 203	Sr.	NR	NR	N/A	46	560	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Melvin Vaughn (2014)	TE	6'2, 253	Jr.	NR	0.7000	47	30	315	63.8%	11.0%	6.7	59.6%	N/A	N/A
Marques Little	WR	5'9, 176	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8085	42	23	221	54.8%	10.6%	5.3	66.7%	35.7%	1.44
Ray Lawry	RB	5'10, 201	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8402	27	21	152	77.8%	6.8%	5.6	37.0%	22.2%	2.29
Jeremy Cox	RB	5'11, 207	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7917	22	20	99	90.9%	5.6%	4.5	54.5%	27.3%	1.52
Vincent Lowe	RB					19	15	117	78.9%	4.8%	6.2	84.2%	47.4%	1.13
David Washington	QB/WR	6'3, 199	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR	19	8	67	42.1%	4.8%	3.5	47.4%	26.3%	1.16
Kesean Strong	RB/WR	5'10, 179	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8044	15	6	46	40.0%	3.8%	3.1	53.3%	20.0%	1.22
Nick England	WR	6'0, 179	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.6722	13	7	70	53.8%	3.3%	5.4	38.5%	46.2%	0.90
Eri'Reon Hayes	WR	6'2, 212	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7856	12	7	115	58.3%	3.0%	9.6	66.7%	50.0%	1.77
Travis Fulgham	WR	6'3, 206	So.	NR	NR	10	6	89	60.0%	2.5%	8.9	70.0%	50.0%	1.46
Isaiah Harper	WR	5'9, 167	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7744	7	4	28	57.1%	1.8%	4.0	71.4%	28.6%	1.42
T.J. Boothe	WR	6'2, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8260
Adam Swann	TE	6'5, 237	So.	NR	0.8100
Quintin Reynolds	WR	6'0, 183	So.	NR	NR
Noah Ellison	WR	6'2, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8315
Scott McCluney	WR	6'1, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8200
Marcus Joyner	TE	6'2, 250	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8200

4. Depth chart wreckage

ODU's final depth chart was missing a few guys. Washington's passer rating had topped 135 against both UTSA and UTEP, but he was out. Lawry was limited. Projected starting receiver Blair Roberts and tight end Melvin Vaughn had been out all year. The offensive line was on its seventh different starting lineup of the year.

We didn't ever get to see the intended ODU offense in 2015. And for all we know, we might not in 2016 either.

We also don't know what the intended lineup will be. While Lawry and Cox give the Monarchs a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield, and while six of the eight linemen who started at least two games are back, we still don't know about the plans at QB, and we don't know if or how much the Monarchs can count on Roberts (who has missed two seasons with injury now) or Vaughn (a decent possession guy). Sophomore Kaesean Strong was a three-star recruit per the 247Sports Composite, and sophomore Eri'Reon Hayes showed some late-season flashes, but this is a unit full of unknowns. It might be smart to run the ball quite a bit.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	93.4	2.83	3.38	39.7%	56.2%	22.0%	85.2	5.8%	8.5%
Rank	102	73	52	56	114	96	86	83	87

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Connor Mewbourne	LT					10	30
Tyler Fisher	LG	6'3, 317	Sr.	NR	0.7000	7	24
Tyler Burns	RG					12	17
Troy Butler	LG	6'3, 313	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333	9	15
Darius Garcia	RT	6'3, 315	Jr.	NR	0.7000	3	12
Tyler Compton	RG	6'4, 304	Sr.	NR	NR	2	10
Nick Clarke	C	6'4, 301	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7511	9	9
Chad Hendricks	RT	6'6, 280	So.	NR	NR	4	4
Eric Hampson	LT	6'5, 288	Jr.	NR	0.7700	0	0
Manuel Matiarena	LG	6'4, 307	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7583	0	0
Cullen Casey	RT	6'4, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8001	0	0
Isaac Weaver	OL	6'6, 275	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8100

5. Injuries usually heal

First, ODU trotted out a line that consisted of Darius Garcia at left tackle, Tyler Fisher at left guard, Tyler Compton at center, Tyler Burns at right guard, and Connor Mewbourne at right tackle. Then Nick Clarke and Troy Butler replaced Compton and Mewbourne. Then Mewbourne replaced Garcia for a game. Then Garcia replaced Butler and Mewbourne took over again on the left. Then Compton and Clarke replaced Fisher and Butler. And Hendricks replaced Garcia.

Only Burns started all 12 games. The ODU offensive line was never settled until November, and ODU didn't reap the rewards of line continuity because of injury issues elsewhere. Every team deals with injuries, but a little bit of continuity would go a long way.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.23	54	IsoPPP+	92.3	94
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.1%	92	Succ. Rt. +	84.8	121
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.2	105	Off. FP+	27.9	102
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.6	85	Redzone S&P+	92.9	99
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.9		ACTUAL	18.0	-3.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	98	102	121	94
RUSHING	104	111	126	91
PASSING	78	97	97	96
Standard Downs		111	116	106
Passing Downs		81	118	63

Q1 Rk	113	1st Down Rk	112
Q2 Rk	97	2nd Down Rk	116
Q3 Rk	105	3rd Down Rk	92
Q4 Rk	99

6. The defense didn't pick up enough slack

In 2014, ODU was held back by a defense that wasn't FBS-ready. The Monarchs allowed at least 40 points in each of their six losses, allowed 5,426 yards for the season, and ranked 125th in Def. S&P+.

They already needed to improve simply because they were bad; when the offense began to fall apart, that put even more pressure on the unit.

Technically, it did improve. ODU rose to 108th in Def. S&P+, powered (relatively speaking) by the combination of a decent pass rush and solid big-play prevention on passing downs. They had to force passing downs first, which continued to be an issue, but once they did, they showed some skill.

Last year's relative strengths could turn into actual strengths. Three-quarters of the starting line returns -- an all-name trio of Rashaad Coward, Bunmi Rotimi, and Oshane Ximines (combined: 16 tackles for loss, 10 sacks, six pass break-ups) -- along with lanky pass rusher Tim Ward. And active, aggressive corners Aaron Young and Brandon Addison (combined: 3.5 tackles for loss, 20 passes defensed) are back as well.

The questions, then, are about the run defense. There was drastic youth on the defensive line, where seven of 13 contributors were freshmen or redshirt freshmen and Rotimi was a sophomore. And interesting youth could lead to better linebacker depth -- sophomore Isaiah Worthy returns from a redshirt, and redshirt freshmen Casey Bernard and Derek Wilder were among the top-rated players in ODU's 2015 signing class. (Two more incoming freshmen were 247 three-stars as well.) ODU has decent potential here, but the Monarchs' next good FBS-level run defense will be their first.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	84.1	3.17	3.76	41.2%	64.4%	16.3%	92.7	5.0%	6.9%
Rank	123	105	118	98	55	105	79	65	76

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Rashaad Coward	NT	6'5, 307	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059	12	33.5	4.6%	2.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Bunmi Rotimi	DT	6'4, 280	Jr.	NR	NR	12	24.5	3.4%	6.0	3.5	0	2	0	0
Oshane Ximines	STUD	6'3, 240	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8035	12	22.0	3.0%	7.5	5.0	0	4	0	0
Poncho Barnwell	DE					12	21.5	3.0%	4.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Miles Fox	DT	6'1, 281	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8295	12	17.0	2.4%	3.0	0.5	0	0	1	0
Scott Wiggins	STUD	6'3, 230	Sr.	NR	NR	12	16.0	2.2%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tim Ward	DE	6'6, 226	So.	NR	0.7633	12	15.0	2.1%	5.0	2.5	1	3	0	0
Terrell Reid	STUD	6'2, 274	Sr.	NR	NR	10	5.5	0.8%	1.5	1.0	0	0	1	0
Jude Brenya	DE	6'3, 256	Sr.	NR	0.7000	12	5.5	0.8%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Pat Toal	NT	6'4, 307	So.	NR	0.7733	11	5.0	0.7%	1.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Daniel Appouh	DE	6'4, 246	So.	NR	0.8800	9	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Torrez Wentz	DT	6'2, 276	So.	NR	0.7500	3	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Tyson	NT	6'1, 335	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7994	8	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Galen Evans	DT	6'3, 284	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR
Ryan Londree	DT	6'3, 260	So.	NR	0.7500
Mufu Taiwo	DT	6'5, 293	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7806

7. The makings of a good pass rush

Ximines took to the STUD position with aplomb. Granted, he wore down in November -- zero tackles for loss in the last four games -- but he's got obvious potential. We'll see if Ward is able to add a little bit more beef to his frame, but these two could form nice bookend pass rushers, and they could get some occasional blitz help from linebackers like TJ Ricks.

The problem comes in stopping the run. The ends are awfully small, and while Coward made quite a few plays for his size (he was the seventh-leading tackler, which is pretty high for a nose tackle), he evidently didn't make enough of them.

There is plenty of beef further down the depth chart. Sophomores Pat Toal and Brandon Tyson could be ready for a heavier load, and redshirt freshman Mufu Taiwo could join the rotation as well. It appears there are plenty of options here, but we still have to see if there's actual talent. ODU ranked 126th in Success Rate+ last year, and nothing quells a solid pass rush more than not having opportunities to actually rush the passer.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
TJ Ricks	MLB	6'0, 226	Sr.	NR	NR	12	85.0	11.8%	4.5	2.5	1	7	1	1
Martez Simpson	OLB					12	57.0	7.9%	7.0	2.0	0	0	1	1
Shadow Williams	OLB	6'0, 216	Sr.	NR	0.7800	12	31.0	4.3%	4.5	1.0	0	0	1	0
Marvin Branch	OLB	6'2, 224	So.	NR	NR	12	20.0	2.8%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	1
Anthony Wilson	MLB	6'1, 214	Sr.	NR	NR	10	17.0	2.4%	0.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Isaiah Worthy (2014)	LB	6'1, 236	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8033	9	14.5	2.0%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Malique Johnson	OLB					12	12.5	1.7%	1.5	1.5	0	1	1	0
Kohl Adams-Hurd	LB					6	8.0	1.1%	0.5	0.0	0	1	1	0
Richard Thomas	OLB	6'0, 224	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7500
Casey Bernard	LB	6'2, 232	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8300
Derek Wilder	LB	6'1, 248	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8044
Jaylin Jeffries	LB	6'0, 237	RSFr.	NR	0.7633
Lawrence Garner	LB	6'2, 218	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8200
Zach Lackman	LB	6'2, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8100

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Fellonte Misher	SS					12	73.5	10.2%	1.5	0.5	4	5	2	0
Justice Davila	FS	6'0, 191	Jr.	NR	0.7822	11	63.5	8.8%	0	0	0	4	0	0
Aaron Young	CB	5'11, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956	12	48.0	6.6%	2.5	1.5	1	8	0	0
Sean Carter	FS	6'1, 196	So.	NR	NR	12	38.5	5.3%	0	0	0	1	0	1
Brandon Addison	CB	5'10, 177	So.	NR	NR	12	33.0	4.6%	1	0	0	11	0	0
C.J. Bradshaw	SS	5'10, 182	Sr.	NR	NR	12	21.0	2.9%	0.5	0	1	2	0	0
Christian Byrum (2014)	S	6'1, 186	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8091	9	16.5	2.3%	0	0	2	0	0	0
Aquante Thornton	CB					12	6.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rob Thompson	FS	6'1, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	5	5.5	0.8%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Justin Noye	S	6'1, 202	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8367	12	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Devon Brown	CB				NR	10	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Andre Bernhard	DB	6'2, 193	Jr.	NR	NR
R.J. Brown	CB	6'0, 193	Jr.	NR	NR
Jordan Glover	CB	5'11, 175	So.	NR	NR
Jamez Brickhouse	CB	5'10, 176	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8321
Jelani Carter	DB	6'1, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7885
Elijah Blue	CB	6'0, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7817
Joe Joe Headen	CB	5'10, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7932

8. The secondary did its part

Strong safety Fellonte Misher turned into a solid play-maker in his senior season, but he's basically the only player to replace from last year's secondary. That could mean very good things. Young and Anderson are small but aggressive, and between sophomores Sean Carter, Christian Byrum and Justin Noye, junior Rob Thompson, and senior C.J. Bradshaw, the odds of finding a decent Misher replacement are high.

Plus, Wilder has recruited DBs better than perhaps any other unit. Per 247, Noye and Byrum were both three-star recruits, as was redshirt freshman corner (and another all-name candidate) Jamez Brickhouse. And incoming freshman Elijah Blue was a Rivals three-star, for what that's worth. There are plenty of athletes to be found in Virginia, and Wilder's found a few in the 6'0, 180-pound range. Especially with this pass rush, ODU's secondary should again be a strength.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Satchel Ziffer			61	40.2	1	7	12	31.1%
Jarrett Cervi			3	34.3	1	2	2	133.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Chris Kirtley	6'1, 191	So.	27	51.4	1	1	3.7%
Ricky Segers	5'11, 204	Sr.	20	60.0	0	1	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Chris Kirtley	6'1, 191	So.	21-23	6-8	75.0%	4-5	80.0%
Ricky Segers	5'11, 204	Sr.	5-5	1-2	50.0%	0-1	0.0%
Satchel Ziffer			5-5	1-1	100.0%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Zach Pascal	KR	6'2, 214	Sr.	20	20.7	0
Marques Little	KR	5'9, 176	Jr.	13	18.1	0
Marques Little	PR	5'9, 176	Jr.	15	2.3	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	121
Field Goal Efficiency	94
Punt Return Success Rate	115
Kick Return Success Rate	50
Punt Success Rate	117
Kickoff Success Rate	128

9. Wanted: Legs

ODU was not only working with a thin, inefficient offense and sketchy run defense; it was also working with an awful special teams unit. Kick returns were decent, and freshman kicker Chris Kirtley at least showed a decent leg (4-for-5 on field goals 40 or longer), but punt returns were nonexistent, only four percent of Kirtley's kickoffs resulted in touchbacks, and the Monarchs were 104th in net punting.

The result of poor special teams and an efficiency disadvantage: horrendous field position. ODU's field position margin was minus-7.8 yards per possession, worst in C-USA and second-worst in FBS. The field was tilted all year, which honestly makes it a bit of a miracle that ODU even reached 5-7.

Just about everybody's back in the special teams unit. That might be good, and it might not.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Hampton	NR	21.6	89%
10-Sep	at Appalachian State	59	-18.8	14%
17-Sep	at N.C. State	40	-22.5	10%
24-Sep	UTSA	116	5.0	61%
1-Oct	at Charlotte	123	-0.2	50%
8-Oct	Massachusetts	127	9.0	70%
22-Oct	at Western Kentucky	45	-20.8	12%
29-Oct	at UTEP	126	1.8	54%
5-Nov	Marshall	75	-8.6	31%
12-Nov	Southern Miss	72	-9.0	30%
19-Nov	at Florida Atlantic	100	-7.4	33%
26-Nov	Florida International	113	4.5	60%
Projected wins: 5.1

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-23.7% (103)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	113 / 120
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-1 / -0.6
2015 TO Luck/Game	-0.2
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	71% (65%, 76%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	4.0 (1.0)

10. At least a 50 percent chance in six games

That ODU indeed went 5-7 last year is a reminder that there are wins to be found in Conference USA no matter your flaws. And despite a non-conference slate that features trips to both Appalachian State and NC State, ODU still faces seven opponents projected 100th or worse in 2016. And as you see above, ODU is given at least a 50 percent chance of winning in six different games.

As I end up saying in basically every C-USA team preview, if this team exceeds the expectations set by last season's numbers -- and one of these teams will -- the path to seven or eight wins is pretty clear. For ODU, that means establishing what could be a solid run game and allowing a strong pass defense to shine by occasionally making stops against the run.

It could certainly happen. I like Ray Lawry and Jeremy Cox in the backfield, and between David Washington, Shuler Bentley, and last year's understudies, there's a chance a decent quarterback emerges. With stability and experience, both lines could improve, and the secondary could turn into a genuine strength. But as with much of this conference, this team has to earn the benefit of the doubt.