Marshall football is reloading, but a good 2016 should lead to a great 2017

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1. The year after the year after

I was right and wrong about Marshall last year.

The Thundering Herd entered 2015 having produced, and then lost a good percentage of, their best FBS team. The 2014 squad had finished 13-1 and 23rd in the AP poll; that didn't match the 1999 team in achievement (13-0 and 10th), but in quality, 2014 was the pinnacle. The Herd were 17th in F/+, 19th in SRS, etc., and they could have finished even higher if not for a November fade.

2014 was awesome. And in 2015, Marshall picked up the pieces. Quarterback Rakeem Cato was replaced by a true freshman. Record-setting slot receiver Tommy Shuler was gone, and his replacement had to move to running back. Two starters on the offensive line and three on the defensive line were gone, as were two of the top three linebackers and an incredibly active cornerback in Darryl Roberts.

Attrition ended up worse than expected. Star running back Devon Johnson missed much of the season with a back injury. Backup Steward Butler was kicked off. Top returning receiver Angelo Jean-Louis and safety A.J. Leggett left. Star offensive tackle Clint Van Horn missed most of the season with injury.

I said in my 2015 preview that I would be surprised if Marshall sank below 10 wins, even with all the transition; thanks to quality play at home, the Herd did not. That they went 10-3 and finished 58th in F/+ in the face of such turnover was encouraging.

Under Doc Holliday, Marshall continues to recruit at a different level than the rest of Conference USA. Per the 247Sports Composite, the Herd have signed the No. 1 class in the conference for four straight years. They take on guys with qualification and character concerns -- they are Last Chance U in many ways -- and while that risks reputation issues (and therefore a shorter leash if bad seasons pop up), it establishes a deep base of talent.

After years of struggling to play to their talent level, Holliday's Herd have done just that. They are 33-8 since the start of 2013, 20-3 in C-USA play, and have won double-digit games for three straight years, something they hadn't done since their 1997-99 entry into FBS. The 2016 season will challenge the streak of double-digit wins, and it might take another year before the Herd move forward again.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-3 | Adj. Record: 8-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 58 | Final S&P+ Rk: 64
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
6-Sep	Purdue	93	41-31	W	29%	59%	-0.5	+2.5
12-Sep	at Ohio	69	10-21	L	15%	8%	-23.7	-14.5
19-Sep	Norfolk State	N/A	45-7	W	77%	100%	+0.5
26-Sep	at Kent State	109	36-29	W	14%	27%	-6.0	0.0
3-Oct	Old Dominion	117	27-7	W	84%	100%	+7.9	+1.5
9-Oct	Southern Miss	56	31-10	W	88%	99%	+8.4	+16.0
17-Oct	at Florida Atlantic	96	33-17	W	66%	96%	+12.5	+9.5
24-Oct	North Texas	126	30-13	W	55%	99%	-24.9	-12.0
31-Oct	at Charlotte	124	34-10	W	84%	100%	+5.0	+5.5
7-Nov	at Middle Tennessee	82	24-27	L	24%	24%	-11.2	0.0
14-Nov	Florida International	112	52-0	W	96%	100%	+37.0	+40.0
27-Nov	at Western Kentucky	15	28-49	L	10%	0%	-10.0	-10.5
26-Dec	vs. Connecticut	80	16-10	W	55%	89%	-1.2	+1.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	26.0	85	23.7	36
Points Per Game	31.3	51	17.8	10

2. Huntington, sweet Huntington

One characteristic that defines high-upside, low-experience teams is a drastic difference in quality between home games and away games. Marshall boasted that in 2015.

• Average Percentile Performance (home): 72% (record: 6-0 | average score: MU 38, Opp 11)
• Average Percentile Performance (road): 36% (record: 3-3 | average score: MU 28, Opp 26)

James Madison transfer Michael Birdsong began as starting quarterback, but after throwing two picks in his first road start, a 21-10 dud of a road loss to Ohio, he was replaced by freshman Chase Litton, who might not give the job up for a while.

Devon Johnson got hurt, returned, and got hurt again, and the offense was never stable. Injuries crept up on the defense, too. The result was a volatile team on an endless search for consistency.

The Herd followed a narrow, lucky road win over Kent State with a dominant home win over a Southern Miss that was a lot better than we knew at the time. And after a tough overtime loss at MTSU (driven in part by sudden place-kicking issues), the Herd were almost perfect against an FIU that was in search of a bowl bid.

Technically the November 27 battle with WKU was a winner-take-all game in the C-USA East, but there was never any question who the best team in the conference was. The more seasoned Hilltoppers had the consistency Marshall never found -- they had an excellent senior QB, and MU had a freshman. But a bowl victory assured double-digit wins, which isn't an awful consolation.

There are still plenty of question marks, especially as they pertain to the run game and defensive depth. But at the moment, there is decent stability. And that will probably mean a smaller range between home and road performances.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.18	105	IsoPPP+	94.2	91
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.9%	48	Succ. Rt. +	99.0	78
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.0	14	Def. FP+	28.9	52
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.2	91	Redzone S&P+	97.1	89
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.9		ACTUAL	24	-0.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	64	86	78	91
RUSHING	67	103	110	91
PASSING	57	74	33	88
Standard Downs		103	83	108
Passing Downs		48	69	48

Q1 Rk	68	1st Down Rk	96
Q2 Rk	42	2nd Down Rk	111
Q3 Rk	102	3rd Down Rk	52
Q4 Rk	125

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Chase Litton	6'6, 207	So.	3 stars	0.8360	230	383	2605	23	8	60.1%	14	3.5%	6.3
Michael Birdsong	6'5, 241	Sr.	NR		43	82	365	2	4	52.4%	5	5.7%	3.8
Xavier Gaines	6'2, 208	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8708
Grant Morrell	6'3, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8242

3. A pretty good audition

To be sure, Litton had his freshman moments. After a nearly perfect first start against Norfolk State, he was 14-for-36 with two picks and produced only an 81.3 passer rating in the tight win over Kent State. And since improvement is never linear, he followed a great three-game stretch against Charlotte, MTSU, and FIU (65 percent completion rate, eight touchdowns, one pick) with another two-pick performance, against WKU (107.7).

Still, Litton was only months removed from attending Tampa Wharton High, and coaches already considered him a better option than Birdsong or 2014 backup Gunnar Holcombe (who has since transferred). Marshall lacked in the big-play department, but the Herd ranked 33rd in Success Rate+, and efficiency is often the last thing to come around for a young QB.

The ceiling for Litton is high. The question is whether Marshall approaches it this fall, or whether the personnel needs another year to gel. Litton had no reliable run game in 2015, and there's no guarantee that changes.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Hyleck Foster	RB/SLOT	5'11, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8093	101	459	3	4.5	4.5	35.6%	3	2
Devon Johnson	RB					94	593	5	6.3	7.6	39.4%	2	2
Remi Watson	RB					80	398	5	5.0	8.0	27.5%	0	0
Keion Davis	RB	6'1, 205	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8328	73	331	2	4.5	4.8	32.9%	0	0
Tony Pittman	RB	5'10, 203	Jr.	2 stars	0.7893	64	327	3	5.1	4.5	37.5%	1	1
Chase Litton	QB	6'6, 207	So.	3 stars	0.8360	34	138	0	4.1	2.7	41.2%	3	2
Michael Birdsong	QB	6'5, 241	Sr.	NR	NR	16	88	1	5.5	5.7	43.8%	2	2
Delvin Weems	RB	5'8, 185	RSFr.	3 stars	0.8467
JaQua Daniels	RB	6'1, 219	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8591
Cody Mitchell	FB	6'2, 212	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8113

4. Rebuilding the run game

Everything changed when Devon Johnson got hurt. Even in the loss to Ohio, he was fantastic, and through three games he had rushed 54 times for 381 yards (7.1) and three touchdowns. Over 13 games, that's a 1,600-yard pace.

But Clint Van Horn got hurt in the third game, and Johnson got hurt in the fourth, and things quickly changed. The team that had averaged 5.5 yards per carry overall through three games, averaged just 4.2 the rest of the way. Johnson returned against Southern Miss and FAU, then came back one more time in the bowl game. But aside from a 75-yard run on the first play of the FAU game, he otherwise rushed 34 times for just 128 yards the rest of the season, and the backup situation was fluid for all the wrong reasons. Backup Remi Watson was already hurt when Johnson went down, and freshman Keion Davis was inconsistent.

Desperation led to a position change. Receiver Hyleck Foster was having a disappointing season in the slot (though six games: 11 catches, 64 yards), but he provided a brief spark in the backfield, rushing 34 times for 227 yards against FAU and UNT. But he averaged 3.4 yards per carry the rest of the way, and Marshall finished with a No. 103 ranking in Rushing S&P+.

Does this change in 2016? There are no guarantees. Van Horn is pursuing a medical redshirt, and heaven only knows when he'll get an answer. Foster might or might not move back to receiver; in theory, that will depend on the progress of players like Davis and junior Tony Pittman, not to mention a pair of three-star youngsters: redshirt freshman Delvin Weems and true freshmen JaQua Daniels.

One figures that if there are a couple of options in that group, Foster ends up back in the slot. Or maybe the coaches have determined he's better in the backfield.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Davonte Allen	WR-X					103	58	715	56.3%	22.9%	6.9	64.1%	46.6%	1.36
Deandre Reaves	SLOT					83	56	705	67.5%	18.4%	8.5	49.4%	54.2%	1.45
Deon-Tay McManus	WR-Z	6'1, 228	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8950	77	35	334	45.5%	17.1%	4.3	49.4%	35.1%	1.13
Ryan Yurachek	TE	6'3, 233	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7626	54	44	417	81.5%	12.0%	7.7	70.4%	64.8%	1.15
Justin Hunt	WR-X	6'3, 203	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7967	37	20	295	54.1%	8.2%	8.0	64.9%	51.4%	1.53
Hyleck Foster	RB/SLOT	5'11, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8093	26	17	96	65.4%	5.8%	3.7	73.1%	30.8%	0.99
Emanuel Byrd	TE	6'3, 229	Sr.	3 stars	NR	25	19	214	76.0%	5.6%	8.6	68.0%	56.0%	1.42
Devon Johnson	RB					8	6	63	75.0%	1.8%	7.9	75.0%	62.5%	1.15
Nick Mathews	SLOT	5'10, 168	So.	NR	NR	8	4	29	50.0%	1.8%	3.6	37.5%	37.5%	0.87
Josh Knight	WR-Z	6'1, 193	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859	7	3	44	42.9%	1.6%	6.3	57.1%	42.9%	1.44
Raylen Elzy	WR	6'4, 203	So.	3 stars	0.7913	6	2	8	33.3%	1.3%	1.3	50.0%	16.7%	0.76
Remi Watson	RB					5	5	55	100.0%	1.1%	11.0	20.0%	40.0%	2.81
Keion Davis	RB	6'1, 205	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8328	5	3	15	60.0%	1.1%	3.0	20.0%	0.0%	0.00
Tony Pittman	RB	5'10, 203	Jr.	2 stars	0.7893	3	2	14	66.7%	0.7%	4.7	66.7%	33.3%	1.11
Donquell Green	WR	5'8, 170	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8235
Kaleb Harris	TE	6'3, 223	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7900
Pro Wells	TE	6'5, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8667
Willie Johnson	WR	6'0, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8093

5. Who do the big plays come from?

If the run game stabilizes a bit, then Marshall can begin to address the next issue on the list. The passing game was pretty efficient, with Litton balancing passes to tight end Ryan Yurachek and slot receiver Deandre Reaves (combined catch rate: 73 percent) with more risky shots at wideouts Davonte Allen and Deon-Tay McManus. But while Allen's and McManus' combined 52 percent catch rate would have been fine if they were averaging 15 to 20 yards per catch, they averaged only 11.3. Justin Hunt was the closest thing to a big-play guy in the receiving corps, but he caught only 20 passes.

Despite pass-first tendencies, Marshall ended up with only 37 passes of 20-plus yards (72nd in FBS) and four of 40-plus (103rd). Litton is good in the quick-passing game, which helps to keep the pass rush at bay, but if receivers aren't occasionally breaking short passes for long gains, and if the run game isn't very efficient, then you have to execute well for eight or 10 plays at a time to score. And as Marshall's averages in scoring opportunities suggest (4.2 points per opportunity, 91st), the Herd weren't very good at that ... in part because they couldn't run the ball. A vicious circle, that.

Just one to two more big passes per game could drastically change expectations for Marshall in 2016. But who might they come from?  Is Hunt ready for a larger role? Fellow senior Josh Knight? Sophomore Raylen Elzy?

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	93.4	2.79	3.51	35.6%	66.0%	19.7%	127.4	3.3%	5.6%
Rank	102	78	36	104	65	75	35	30	27

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Sebastian Johansson	LG					13	38	2015 1st All-CUSA
Michael Selby	C	6'2, 283	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8414	13	27	2015 2nd All-CUSA
Clint Van Horn	RT	6'5, 314	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	3	25	2014 1st All-CUSA
Sandley Jean-Felix	LT	6'5, 317	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8345	13	13
Jordan Dowrey	RG	6'1, 297	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7755	12	12
AJ Addison	RT	6'6, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8700	7	7
Tom Collins	LG					2	2
Nate Devers	RG	6'3, 282	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8665	1	1
Fedrice Binot	RG	6'4, 280	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	1	1
Cody Collins	C	6'1, 275	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7804	0	0
Levi Brown	OL	6'4, 275	RSFr.	2 stars	0.8348
Alex Salguero	OL	6'3, 310	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8400

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.15	17	IsoPPP+	108.1	41
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	37.7%	27	Succ. Rt. +	96.2	77
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	33.4	6	Off. FP+	30.7	49
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.2	1	Redzone S&P+	108.0	34
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	28.5		ACTUAL	28.0	-0.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	35	53	77	41
RUSHING	64	87	105	78
PASSING	22	37	47	34
Standard Downs		51	69	39
Passing Downs		66	93	56

Q1 Rk	85	1st Down Rk	53
Q2 Rk	37	2nd Down Rk	31
Q3 Rk	52	3rd Down Rk	74
Q4 Rk	32

6. Scoring TDs on Marshall was hard

In 2014, with a fantastic pass defense and far more experience, Marshall fit a bend-don't-break profile of sorts. The Herd ranked 55th in Def. Success Rate+ and 22nd in IsoPPP+. They were spectacular on passing downs (sixth) and held opponents to four points per scoring opportunity (30th).

With turnover across the board -- they lost their top three linemen, three of four linebackers, and two of four defensive backs -- the Herd pulled off something improbable in 2015: they improved defensively, from 50th to 36th in Def. S&P+.

The bend-don't-break profile held, but while the defense got a little bit worse on a per-play bases, it made up for it by allowing a paltry 3.2 points per scoring opportunity, the lowest average in the country. You can get away with inefficiency if you're keeping points off of the board, and Marshall's defense was as good in the red zone as the offense was shaky.

With three of the top four linemen back, along with two solid contributors at linebacker (plus some star recruits joining the fold), the front seven could again be stury enough to stiffen with points on the line. But Marshall could do itself some favors by allowing fewer opportunities, and there's just enough turnover to wonder if that's likely.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	83.2	2.98	3.61	38.9%	73.8%	18.6%	111.3	5.7%	7.1%
Rank	126	83	106	74	106	86	44	42	71

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Gary Thompson	DE	6'1, 252	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7700	13	44.0	5.7%	12.5	9.0	0	4	5	0
Ryan Bee	DE	6'7, 263	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7783	12	37.0	4.8%	8.5	4.0	0	2	0	0
Jarquez Samuel	NT					12	29.0	3.8%	7.0	1.0	0	4	0	1
Blake Keller	DE	6'2, 234	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8143	13	25.5	3.3%	5.5	0.5	0	0	1	0
Steve Dillon	DT					13	19.5	2.5%	3.5	1.0	0	1	1	0
Ricardo Williams	DT					13	16.5	2.1%	2.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Armonze Daniel	DE					13	16.0	2.1%	2.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Nyquan Harris	DT	6'2, 293	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8274	13	15.5	2.0%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Joe Massaquoi	DE	6'5, 251	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	11	13.5	1.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jason Smith	DT	6'3, 296	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	11	7.0	0.9%	2.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Tomell One	NT	6'3, 275	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8148	6	3.0	0.4%	1.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Malik Thompson	DE	6'6, 251	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.7778
Ty Tyler	DE	6'3, 248	RSFr.	2 stars	0.8371
Damien Dozier	DE	6'4, 207	RSFr.	2 stars	0.8296

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Evan McKelvey	WLB					13	85.5	11.1%	9.0	0.0	1	10	1	1
D.J. Hunter	SLB					13	44.0	5.7%	5.0	3.0	0	0	3	0
Devontre'a Tyler	MLB	6'2, 240	Sr.	3 stars	0.7900	13	35.5	4.6%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Shawn Petty	MLB	6'2, 241	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7923	9	24.0	3.1%	4.5	1.5	0	4	1	0
Raheim Huskey	MLB	6'2, 211	Jr.	NR	NR	7	15.5	2.0%	2.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Chase Hancock	SLB	6'2, 207	So.	NR	NR	13	11.5	1.5%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Frankie Hernandez	WLB	6'2, 201	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8333	13	10.5	1.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Marquis Couch	LB	6'2, 209	RSFr.	3 stars	0.8086
Davon Durant	LB	6'2, 233	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9256
Doyle Grimes	LB	6'1, 210	RSFr.	2 stars	0.8160
Jaquan Yulee	LB	6'1, 246	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9250
Omari Cobb	LB	6'4, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8123

7. Got depth?

I engaged in artful wording above. Yes, three of the top four tacklers on the line return; but all three are defensive ends. And while the return of ends Gary Thompson, Ryan Bee, and Blake Keller (combined: 26.5 tackles for loss, 13.5 sacks) should ensure a nice, attacking presence on passing downs -- don't be surprised if a top-50 pass rush turns into a top-30 pass rush -- the top three tackles are gone. Three returning tackles did combine for 25.5 tackles, five for loss, and sophomore Jason Smith showed hints of play-making potential. But Smith, fellow sophomore Nyquan Harris, and junior Tomell One must all be ready to play major roles in 2016 because if they aren't, I'm not sure who will be.

This is how you develop depth issues. Of this trio, at least one guy will probably turn out well, maybe two. But you tend to need more guys than that. And if someone gets hurt?

In a way, it's the same story at linebacker. Devontre'a Tyler, Shawn Petty, and Raheim Huskey return after combining for 9.5 TFLs a year ago, but the loss of Evan McKelvey and D.J. Hunter means that all three have to be stellar. [Update: Huskey was dismissed from the program in July.] And two four-stars -- JUCO transfer Davon Durant and freshman Jaquan Yulee -- will have to prove their potential pretty quickly.

The first string for Marshall's front seven should be strong. But the second string is a complete unknown. That means you're one or two injuries from pretty significant regression.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tiquan Lang	S	5'8, 170	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7943	11	65.5	8.5%	1	0	2	6	0	0
Taj Letman	S					13	61.5	8.0%	3.5	0	3	7	1	0
Corey Tindal	CB					13	53.0	6.9%	4	3	2	13	1	0
Antavis Rowe	NB	5'11, 167	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	13	32.5	4.2%	2.5	0	1	6	1	0
Kendall Gant	S	6'3, 198	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8995	13	29.5	3.8%	0	0	2	1	0	0
Rodney Allen	CB	5'11, 180	Jr.	NR	NR	13	24.0	3.1%	1	0	3	3	0	1
Keith Baxter	CB					13	18.0	2.3%	1	1	1	5	0	0
Cody Carter	CB	5'10, 178	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	11	9.0	1.2%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Corey Neely	S	6'1, 177	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	9	3.5	0.5%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
T.J. Griffin	CB	5'9, 185	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8385	6	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Johnson	DB	5'9, 170	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8672
D'Andre Wilson	DB	5'10, 167	Jr.	NR	0.8538
Chris Williams-Hall	DB	6'0, 186	So.	NR	NR
C.J. Reavis	S	6'1, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8322
Sir Patrick Scott	DB	6'1, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8569
Jaylon McClain-Sapp	DB	5'11, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793
Christopher Jackson	S	6'0, 160	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726
Jeremiah Maddox	S	6'0, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8251
Jestin Morrow	DB	5'10, 160	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8183

8. Got play-makers?

Despite losing Taj Letman, the safety position appears well-stocked with Tiquan Lang, Kendall Gant, and a proven nickel in Antavis Rowe. But losing Corey Tindal hurts. Tindal was a dynamite play-maker, defensing 15 passes and sacking the quarterback three times.

Perhaps Rowe could be used in the same way, and Rodney Allen looks solid at the other corner spot, but the secondary was a source of havoc, and Tindal was the strongest havoc-bringer. This will still be one of the best defenses in C-USA, but depth and attacking options could tamp the ceiling down a bit.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Tyler Williams			70	44.4	10	18	23	58.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Amoreto Curraj	6'2, 213	Jr.	76	62.6	45	4	59.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Nick Smith	5'10, 175	Jr.	48-48	17-20	85.0%	1-5	20.0%
Amoreto Curraj	6'2, 213	Jr.	1-1	0-2	0.0%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Deandre Reaves	KR			23	30.1	2
Remi Watson	KR			3	23.7	0
Deandre Reaves	PR			14	14.6	1
Hyleck Foster	PR	5'11, 185	Jr.	9	4.1	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	26
Field Goal Efficiency	90
Punt Return Success Rate	2
Kick Return Success Rate	8
Punt Success Rate	23
Kickoff Success Rate	12

9. #CollegeKickers

Nick Smith went full-on #CollegeKickers for a little bit. He made his first nine kicks of the year, but after missing a couple against Charlotte, he lost the plot against MTSU. He missed three of four kicks, including a 42-yarder with 4:32 left and a 32-yarder at the end of regulation. In overtime, Doc Holliday sent in kickoffs guy Amoreto Curraj, who promptly missed a 38-yarder and had a 39-yarder blocked.

When Smith made a short field goal at the halftime buzzer of Marshall's easy win over FIU the next week, it had to feel all sorts of cathartic. He went 4-for-6 to finish the season, and slump aside, he appears to at least be a reliable option inside of 40 yards.

His improvement will be vital to Marshall retaining a strong overall special teams rating. Spectacular return man Deandre Reaves must now be replaced, and punter Tyler Williams is gone, too. Curraj was a touchback machine on kickoffs, but it's hard to imagine the Herd staying in the special teams top 30 unless Smith has his head on straight and a new return man is found. No guarantees there.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
10-Sep	Morgan State	NR	43.4	99%
17-Sep	Akron	97	10.3	72%
24-Sep	Louisville	20	-10.4	27%
1-Oct	at Pittsburgh	29	-13.3	22%
8-Oct	at North Texas	128	14.8	80%
15-Oct	Florida Atlantic	100	11.6	75%
22-Oct	Charlotte	123	18.8	86%
29-Oct	at Southern Miss	72	-3.9	41%
5-Nov	at Old Dominion	111	8.6	69%
12-Nov	Middle Tennessee	90	8.2	68%
19-Nov	at Florida International	113	9.5	71%
26-Nov	Western Kentucky	45	-1.7	46%
Projected wins: 7.6

Five-Year F/+ Rk	4.1% (53)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	75 / 72
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	4 / 3.6
2015 TO Luck/Game	+0.1
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	62% (72%, 53%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	9.0 (1.0)

10. A test of the streak

The offense could be great or could get dragged down again by a faulty running game. The defense could be great or could get dragged down by depth issues and one fewer play-maker. Turnover in the return and punting games might lead to regression.

When you recruit as well as Marshall does, and when you field higher-caliber athletes than your brethren at most positions, that means your floor is higher than everybody else's.

The ceiling has yet to be determined, at least for 2016. And the schedule could result in a wide variety of outcomes. The strong power-conference opponents that were missing from the 2014 schedule show up this fall -- Louisville comes to Huntington in Week 4, then Marshall visits Pitt in Week 5. Plus, the two conference foes that took the Herd down last year must come to Marshall in November.

The opportunity for big wins is high, but if the Herd aren't any better on the road, then trips to Southern Miss and perhaps ODU or FIU could be scary. Another 10-win season is conceivable, but so is a five-loss setback. In that regard, a 7.6-win projection sounds about right.

This is a team destined to improve in 2017, but it's hard to know what the Herd are capable of in 2016. One thing's certain, though: if the streak of 10-win seasons continues this year, it will almost definitely continue next year, too.