Skip Holtz is doing well at Louisiana Tech, but he's got a lot of transition to deal with in 2016

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1. I think I was wrong

I don't have a good feeling about this hire, in other words. But I didn't have a good feeling about Vanderbilt hiring James Franklin either. And maybe I'm overthinking this entirely because of the Petersen hire. Maybe Tech will get the best of both worlds: the high-octane offense mixed with better defensive discipline and overall quality. But I'll just go ahead and call myself a skeptic with this one.

I didn't love the Skip Holtz hire. My general thinking was Sonny Dykes had found something that works well in Ruston --- air raid offense, swarming secondary -- and straying from that recipe by going with a guy more defensive by nature (with a stolid offensive history) seemed misguided. Tech had won 17 games in two years, and while the Bulldogs were guaranteed to step backwards in 2013 after losing a ton of important personnel, I didn't love the idea of Holtz being the one to guide them back.

Granted, it's only been three seasons, and the first one was far more of a step backwards than I even anticipated (Tech ranked 123rd in S&P+ in 2013, reaching five wins only because of a paper-thin schedule). And granted, the last two seasons haven't been remarkably stable -- 2014's team was powered by excellent, aggressive defense, and 2015's team took a step forward offensively and two steps backwards defensively. Still, over the last two years Holtz has retained a wide-open offense while, at worst, matching Dykes' defensive numbers. And whereas Dykes won 17 games in 2011-12, Holtz won 18 in 2014-15.

At worst, Holtz has proven himself as solid a hire as Dykes. And in 2016, with record-setting running back (and Dykes signee) Kenneth Dixon gone, this officially becomes Holtz's program.

I guess that means Holtz still has time to fail. Tech loses a lot of last year's production, and Holtz has already had to make so many coordinator hires that an iffy one could derail whatever progress Tech has sustained.

Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz left after one year (2014) in Ruston, and Holtz promoted linebackers coach Blake Baker to that position; a much thinner defensive unit fell from 24th to 76th in Def. S&P+. And because of another go-round of turnover, we might not begin to find out how much of that regression was because of personnel and experience, and how much was because of the person leading the D.

Now the offense gets a makeover, too. Dixon and quarterback Jeff Driskel (who threw for 4,000 yards in 2015 after transferring from Florida) are both gone, and offensive coordinator Tony Petersen, who built a spread-offense bridge from the Dykes era to the Holtz era, is now at ECU.

In response, Holtz brought in veteran Todd Fitch to run the offense. Fitch is a 30-year coaching veteran who ran Holtz's USF offenses (the stolid ones referenced above). In seven seasons as an FBS offensive coordinator, he's been at the helm of one top-40 offense (2007 ECU) and five ranked between 50th and 90th. In 2015, his Boston College offense was one of the worst in the country (124th in Off. S&P+), and while it would be unfair to judge him on one year, it's fair to worry.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 8-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 57 | Final S&P+ Rk: 54
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Southern U.	N/A	62-15	W	93%	100%	+27.7
10-Sep	at Western Kentucky	15	38-41	L	51%	37%	+0.5	-4.0
19-Sep	at Kansas State	81	33-39	L	22%	27%	+5.8	+3.0
26-Sep	Florida International	112	27-17	W	66%	95%	-8.1	-4.5
3-Oct	UL-Lafayette	104	43-14	W	78%	99%	+5.2	+11.0
10-Oct	UTSA	111	34-31	W	47%	81%	-14.3	-7.5
17-Oct	at Mississippi State	16	20-45	L	21%	8%	-25.0	-11.5
24-Oct	Middle Tennessee	82	45-16	W	96%	100%	+18.2	+21.5
30-Oct	at Rice	123	42-17	W	87%	100%	+4.7	+12.0
7-Nov	North Texas	126	56-13	W	75%	100%	+3.2	+13.5
21-Nov	at UTEP	125	17-15	W	44%	81%	-25.3	-22.5
28-Nov	Southern Miss	56	24-58	L	7%	0%	-40.1	-40.0
19-Dec	vs. Arkansas State	71	47-28	W	86%	99%	+13.7	+17.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	35.3	26	29.4	76
Points Per Game	37.5	19	26.8	62

2. Rock bottom, then rebound

This is an optimist-vs.-pessimist team.

The optimist sees a loaded skill position corps, a former blue-chip quarterback, a more stable offensive line, a potential All-American tackle (seriously, Vernon Butler is a bad man), and one of the best secondaries in the country, at either the power-conference or mid-major level.

The pessimist sees a team that surged primarily because of a defense that now must replace a stud coordinator and most of its front seven, not to mention an offense that must replace its quarterback and an offensive line that might not be talented enough to gel.

I leaned in both directions in last year's Tech preview. It was pretty easy to see how the Bulldogs might sustain most of 2014's gains, and it was pretty easy to see things falling apart. The projections ended up being almost spot-on, but both the optimist and pessimist had their instincts proven right to some degree.

Tech showed immense upside and pretty low downside, and once the Bulldogs his a peak, a valley was soon to follow. They were great against Southern U., then regressed twice. They were solid against UL-Lafayette, then regressed twice. They were tremendous in a 29-point destruction of a decent MTSU team, then they regressed four times in row, bottoming out with an egregious home loss to Southern Miss (which cost them a division title). And then they were great again in the New Orleans Bowl.

It was a roller coaster of a season. Tech played four games at the 86th percentile or higher and three at the 22nd or lower. Still, a No. 54 finish and another nine wins sustained the gains of the 2014 campaign.

Now comes an even bigger test. Tech returns a sneaky-low amount of last year's production -- 39 percent overall, fourth-lowest in FBS -- and the quality of Holtz's recruiting will tell us how far the Bulldogs fall, if at all.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.36	24	IsoPPP+	110.8	38
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	48.1%	13	Succ. Rt. +	107.0	41
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.2	99	Def. FP+	30.5	85
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.0	24	Redzone S&P+	103.2	61
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.8		ACTUAL	21	+0.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	21	35	41	38
RUSHING	81	65	62	69
PASSING	13	37	35	37
Standard Downs		30	35	26
Passing Downs		57	55	60

Q1 Rk	14	1st Down Rk	35
Q2 Rk	34	2nd Down Rk	26
Q3 Rk	74	3rd Down Rk	64
Q4 Rk	58

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2016 Year

Rivals

247 Comp.

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Jeff Driskel

281

450

4033

27

8

62.4%

19

4.1%

8.4

Ryan Higgins

6'2, 212

Sr.

3 stars (5.5)

0.8088

15

25

138

1

3

60.0%

1

3.8%

5.0

Price Wilson

6'1, 223

So.

2 stars (5.4)

0.8038

J'mar Smith

6'1, 223

RSFr.

3 stars (5.5)

0.8463

Jon Randall Belton

6'3, 203

Fr.

2 stars (5.4)

0.8537

Jack Abraham

6'0, 197

Fr.

2 stars (5.3)

0.8312

3. Got a QB?

Fitch's 2015 Boston College offense was never going to be fantastic, but it was mortally wounded by the QB position. Sophomore quarterback Darius Wade was showing at least a little bit of promise before he was lost for the season to injury in the third week. And from then on, one freshman after another made it to the top of the depth chart and failed. Three first-year guys combined to complete 44 percent of their passes, and while the run game showed a little bit of promise, it didn't matter.

Granted, it would only take an injury or two to render away any semblance of experience Tech has, but in theory, the Bulldogs' quarterback situation is better than what Fitch was working with in Massachusetts.

Ryan Higgins has been the runner-up to a transfer in each of the last two years. First, Cody Sokol overtook him for the starting job in 2014, then Driskel did the same last year. Higgins saw significant playing time in 2013, when he and a young two-deep were overmatched; he completed 59 percent of his passes but threw 10 interceptions in a four-game stretch. Over the last two years, he's completed 21 of 35 passes, mostly in mop-up duty.

We'll see what Fitch wants from the QB position, but Higgins showed at least a little bit of mobility in 2013. But after the 2015 experience at BC, Fitch might just prefer to wrap his QB in bubble wrap and have him never leave the pocket.

[Update: Higgins will not start the team's season opener against Arkansas as punishment for his DWI arrest.]

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Kenneth Dixon	RB					197	1070	19	5.4	7.1	37.6%	4	4
Jeff Driskel	QB					73	436	5	6.0	5.6	47.9%	3	0
Jarred Craft	RB	6'0, 212	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793	58	230	1	4.0	2.4	36.2%	0	0
Boston Scott	RB	5'6, 190	Jr.	NR	NR	34	275	0	8.1	9.0	47.1%	0	0
Blake Martin	RB					20	80	1	4.0	1.9	35.0%	0	0
Ryan Higgins	QB	6'2, 212	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8088	8	35	0	4.4	2.8	37.5%	0	0
Carlos Henderson	WR	5'11, 194	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8213	5	54	0	10.8	5.4	80.0%	1	1
Jaqwis Dancy	RB	5'11, 190	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8162

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Trent Taylor	WR	5'8, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8007	131	99	1282	75.6%	28.3%	9.8	64.1%	61.8%	1.49
Paul Turner	WR					73	45	657	61.6%	15.8%	9.0	50.7%	49.3%	1.65
Carlos Henderson	WR	5'11, 194	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8213	65	36	774	55.4%	14.0%	11.9	67.7%	46.2%	2.36
Kenneth Dixon	RB					45	34	467	75.6%	9.7%	10.4	40.0%	46.7%	2.27
Marcus Gaines	WR	5'6, 158	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7819	38	17	315	44.7%	8.2%	8.3	68.4%	42.1%	1.89
Kameron McKnight	WR	6'2, 225	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8432	38	22	268	57.9%	8.2%	7.1	68.4%	52.6%	1.13
Marlon Watts	WR	6'2, 187	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7652	27	16	144	59.3%	5.8%	5.3	48.1%	44.4%	1.05
Jarred Craft	RB	6'0, 212	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793	11	9	60	81.8%	2.4%	5.5	72.7%	36.4%	1.23
Sanford Seay	WR					11	4	50	36.4%	2.4%	4.5	63.6%	36.4%	1.26
Conner Smith	WR	6'3, 216	Sr.	NR	NR	5	4	45	80.0%	1.1%	9.0	80.0%	60.0%	1.65
Grant Childress	WR	6'0, 188	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7300	4	3	21	75.0%	0.9%	5.3	100.0%	50.0%	0.88
DeJuawn Oliver	WR	5'11, 199	Sr.	NR	NR	2	1	37	50.0%	0.4%	18.5	50.0%	50.0%	3.95
Ricky Jones	TE					2	2	25	100.0%	0.4%	12.5	100.0%	50.0%	2.77
Blake Martin	RB					2	2	14	100.0%	0.4%	7.0	50.0%	100.0%	0.67
Alex Woodall	TE	6'3, 240	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8256	2	0	0	0.0%	0.4%	0.0	100.0%	0.0%	0.00
Rhashid Bonnette	WR	6'0, 157	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8479
Javonte Woodard	WR	6'0, 189	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8158
Zach Cousar	TE	6'4, 218	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8170

4. Life without your rock

In four seasons, Kenneth Dixon was Louisiana Tech's everything. He averaged 200 carries for 1,120 yards and 22 catches for 243 yards each year. He scored 87 touchdowns (despite scoring only five during the miserable 2013 season), even holding the FBS career touchdowns record for a millisecond until it was taken back by Navy's Keenan Reynolds. Dixon was steady and constantly serviceable, reasonably efficient and all sorts of explosive.

Losing Dixon means losing both your best running back and No. 4 receiver. The receiving corps has quite a few exciting weapons, but running back could be an issue. Junior Jarred Craft held down the backup role for much of the year, but didn't do much with it. But thanks in part to a Craft injury, tiny, explosive walk-on Boston Scott got a look and made the most of it. He rushed for 106 yards in just four carries against Arkansas State and showed spectacular explosiveness in minimal opportunities.

From a size perspective, Craft is Tech's most likely feature back, but Scott could be a wonderful change of pace, and rising sophomore Jaqwis Dancy brings a pretty solid recruiting profile to the table. There is potential here, but you're going from known quantities to unknowns.

There are fewer worries in the receiving corps. Losing Dixon and big-play man Paul Turner hurts, but if the running game is decent and there's a QB on the roster capable of throwing the ball semi-accurately, the receivers should do their jobs with aplomb. Trent Taylor and Carlos Henderson combined for 135 catches and a massive 10.5 yards per target, and reserves like Marcus Gaines and Kameron McKnight flashed ability as well. Holtz has recruited well at the receiver position. Now we'll find out how he's done at running back.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	93.5	2.88	2.63	40.5%	62.9%	22.1%	124.0	3.4%	6.4%
Rank	101	66	110	44	84	100	38	33	47

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Jens Danielsen	RT					11	24	2015 2nd All-CUSA
Darrell Brown	LT	6'4, 315	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	13	22	2015 2nd All-CUSA
David Mahaffey	C	6'4, 307	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8222	13	16
Josh Robinson	RG					13	15
Kirby Wixson	C					1	13
O'Shea Dugas	LG	6'5, 330	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8381	12	12
Joseph Brunson	C	6'4, 314	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7923	0	8
Shane Carpenter	RT	6'6, 300	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726	2	2
Derek Edinburgh, Jr.	LT	6'8, 325	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8992	0	0
Clayton Landry	LG	6'5, 298	Sr.	NR	NR	0	0
Deontae McCrady	RG	6'3, 307	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7744	0	0
Michael Rodriguez	OL	6'6, 275	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826	0	0
Cam Manning	OL	6'2, 299	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8006	0	0
DeVante Lovett	OL	6'6, 276	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8144
Joshua Outlaw	OL	6'4, 310	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000
Taylor Fondal	OL	6'1, 309	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8290

5. Three starters gone, four starters back

Shifts on the offensive line two-deep over the previous couple of seasons have created a solid base of experience. Tech must replace two 2015 starters and a 2014 starter, but the Bulldogs still bring back four guys who have combined for 58 starts and a fifth (Shane Carpenter) who got his feet wet with two starts in 2015.

Between these players, former LSU tackle Derek Edinburgh, Jr., and a couple of recent three-star signees, it appears the depth here is strong. But Tech ranked just 101st in Adj. Line Yards even while blocking for Dixon. The Bulldog front will need to raise its game a bit with a new cast of characters at running back.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.22	45	IsoPPP+	101.3	61
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.3%	60	Succ. Rt. +	101.8	60
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.1	87	Off. FP+	29.3	86
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.2	46	Redzone S&P+	98.7	78
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.5		ACTUAL	22.0	-2.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	48	61	60	61
RUSHING	13	36	38	32
PASSING	100	86	82	88
Standard Downs		59	62	65
Passing Downs		58	69	54

Q1 Rk	90	1st Down Rk	67
Q2 Rk	35	2nd Down Rk	61
Q3 Rk	67	3rd Down Rk	38
Q4 Rk	83

6. Run defense sank a little, pass defense sank a lot

The Tech defense was well-rounded and aggressive as hell in 2014, but there was no way to avoid a drop-off last fall. Not only was there a coordinator change, but the Bulldogs were also tasked with replacing five of their top seven linemen (including ace pass rusher Houston Bates) and their top three linebackers, who had combined for 24.5 tackles for loss and 16 passes defensed. That's a lot of production to lose at once.

The secondary was experienced, though. It stood to reason that unless the pass rush completely collapsed, the pass defense should remain sound.

The pass rush fell from 24th in Adj. Sack Rate to 80th. And while the secondary still made its share of plays, so did opponents. Tech fell from 22nd in Passing S&P+ to 86th, and it negated the impact of a surprisingly impressive run D. The Bulldogs stopped about one-quarter of rushes at or behind the line and ranked a healthy 36th in Rushing S&P+, but opponents leaned heavily on the pass to move the ball. The result: Tech fell 52 spots in Def. S&P+, from 24th to 76th.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	116.9	2.45	2.38	36.6%	82.4%	24.9%	92	4.6%	5.8%
Rank	11	12	6	47	128	10	80	80	92

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Vontarrius Dora	DE					13	39.5	5.5%	9.5	6.0	0	1	2	0
Vernon Butler	DT					13	39.0	5.4%	10.0	3.0	0	2	0	0
Jaylon Ferguson	DE	6'5, 256	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8111	12	28.5	4.0%	15.0	6.0	0	1	2	0
Aaron Brown	DT	6'1, 270	Sr.	NR	NR	11	19.5	2.7%	4.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Deldrick Canty	DE	6'2, 266	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8300	11	15.5	2.2%	4.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Porter	DT					12	8.0	1.1%	3.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Matthew Ydarraga	DE	6'3, 238	So.	NR	NR	6	6.5	0.9%	2.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Immanuel Turner	DE	6'3, 250	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7733	7	4.5	0.6%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Bradford	DT	6'2, 280	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8015	10	4.5	0.6%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Courtney Wallace	DT	6'2, 336	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8377	13	3.5	0.5%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darchi Anderson	DE					5	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Hakim Gray	DT	6'3, 303	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8318
Cedric Johnson	DT	6'2, 304	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8522
La'Dante Davenport	DT	6'3, 293	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7994
Keonatye Garner	DT	6'4, 265	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000
Kalan Ritchie	DE	6'6, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8128
Willie Baker	DE	6'2, 238	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8516
Ka'Derrion Mason	DT	6'3, 280	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8467

7. Set for years up front

Tech must once again replace all three starting linebackers in 2016, but at the least, the line appears stocked with exciting prospects. The pass rush regressed, but Jaylon Ferguson still flashed potential with 15 tackles for loss and six sacks as a freshman. And while two of the top three tackles are gone (including outstanding Vernon Butler), Holtz and Blake Baker got a jump on this potential issue by giving four freshman reserves some playing time.

Senior Aaron Brown returns, and sophomores Jordan Bradford and Courtney Wallace each hinted at some upside in their 2015 opportunities. Throw in big reserves Hakim Gray and Cedric Johnson (each former three-star recruits), JUCO transfer Keonatye Garner, redshirt freshman La'Dante Davenport, and incoming three-star freshman Ka'Derrion Mason, and it feels like there's enough quantity here to produce likely quality. There are obvious depth questions at linebacker, but I like the options up front.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Beau Fitte	LB					13	81.5	11.3%	6.0	0.0	2	1	1	0
Nick Thomason	LB					12	62.0	8.6%	12.5	0.5	1	2	1	0
C.J. Cleveland	LB					13	49.0	6.8%	1.5	0.0	0	3	2	0
Lloyd Grogan	LB	6'1, 212	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8470	11	24.5	3.4%	0.5	0.0	1	3	0	0
Russell Farris	LB	5'11, 217	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7900	13	19.0	2.6%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Durman	LB	6'2, 226	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7904	9	9.0	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dae'Von Washington	LB	5'10, 220	So.	NR	NR	9	8.5	1.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Frasier Hogan	LB	5'10, 216	Jr.	NR	NR	11	6.5	0.9%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Michael Mims	LB	5'11, 211	Jr.	NR	NR	4	5.5	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Quanta Moore	LB	6'1, 227	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7693
Collin Scott	LB	6'0, 228	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8007
Dante Williams	LB	6'1, 216	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793
Devin Hamilton	LB	5'11, 201	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8241

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kentrell Brice	S					13	53.0	7.4%	3	1	1	8	0	0
Bryson Abraham	CB					13	48.5	6.7%	2	1	3	16	2	1
Xavier Woods	S	5'11, 203	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8241	13	46.5	6.5%	7.5	0	3	3	2	0
Adairius Barnes	CB					13	44.5	6.2%	1.5	0	1	11	1	0
Secdrick Cooper	S	6'0, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7444	13	17.5	2.4%	1.5	0.5	0	2	0	0
Aaron Roberson	CB	5'9, 196	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8108	7	13.0	1.8%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Trey Spencer	CB	5'11, 171	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7960	10	8.0	1.1%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Elliot Blankenship	DB	6'0, 202	Jr.	NR	NR	7	6.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Theron Williams	S	5'10, 186	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7886	9	6.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darryl Lewis	DB	5'11, 193	So.	NR	NR	4	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Ephraim Kitchen	CB	5'10, 170	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8305	2	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Roland Dunn	CB	5'10, 174	Jr.	NR	NR	8	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
James Jackson	S	5'11, 205	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059
Jarrell Jackson (Hawaii)	DB	6'0, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	NR
Ronald Lewis (Arizona State)	DB	5'11, 185	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8634
DaMarion King	DB	5'11, 198	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7844
David Beasley	DB	6'2, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8144
L'Jarius Sneed	DB	6'1, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8056

8. Major questions at corner

Defensive tackle is one potential issue that Holtz is addressing with quantity; cornerback is another. Despite regression in pass defense, corners Bryson Abraham and Adairius Barnes were still crazy-active, combining for four interceptions and 27 break-ups. Their absence raises major experience questions, but sophomores Aaron Roberson, Trey Spencer, Darryl Lewis, and Ephraim Kitchen all saw playing time as freshmen. Plus Holtz brought in two transfers (including Arizona State's Ronald Lewis), JUCO DaMarion King, and two three-star freshmen (David Beasley, L'Jarius Sneed).

If the corner position is stable, safety should be fine. Losing Kentrell Brice hurts, but senior Xavier Woods was even more active than Brice, and junior Secdrick Cooper saw quite a bit of action last year.

Though Woods is a senior, almost all of the exciting pieces of this defense are sophomores and juniors. That could mean a little bit more transition time in 2016 before the 2017 defense takes a nice step forward. Still, there is a number of options in positions of need, and if some new starters turn potential into production, there's hope for the 2016 defense.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Gerald Shouse	6'1, 199	Sr.	51	40.9	2	17	22	76.5%
Logan McPherson	5'10, 178	Sr.	4	33.3	0	0	1	25.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jonathan Barnes	5'9, 168	Jr.	88	59.4	22	5	25.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jonathan Barnes	5'9, 168	Jr.	60-60	16-18	88.9%	6-8	75.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Carlos Henderson	KR	5'11, 194	Jr.	21	22.0	0
Jaqwis Dancy	KR	5'11, 190	So.	17	17.4	0
Trent Taylor	PR	5'8, 180	Sr.	13	6.4	0
Paul Turner	PR			2	32.5	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	35
Field Goal Efficiency	25
Punt Return Success Rate	40
Kick Return Success Rate	87
Punt Success Rate	38
Kickoff Success Rate	123

9. Few questions in special teams

Quarterback, running back, defensive tackle, linebacker, cornerback. Louisiana Tech has questions to answer in a lot of units. But special teams should remain a strength, and that can do the Bulldogs some favors in terms of field position and finishing drives. Jonathan Barnes is a potentially excelelnt place-kicker, Gerald Shouse's punts are high and relatively long, Trent Taylor is a consistent punt returner, and Carlos Henderson is a potentially explosive kick returner.

Kickoff coverage was an issue, but this was an otherwise solid unit and should be again.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	at Arkansas	17	-21.2	11%
10-Sep	SC State	NR	22.6	90%
17-Sep	at Texas Tech	43	-12.5	23%
24-Sep	at Middle Tennessee	90	-1.8	46%
1-Oct	UTEP	126	17.9	85%
8-Oct	Western Kentucky	45	-4.6	39%
15-Oct	at Massachusetts	127	11.1	74%
22-Oct	at Florida International	113	6.6	65%
29-Oct	Rice	119	14.5	80%
5-Nov	at North Texas	128	11.9	75%
12-Nov	UTSA	116	14.2	79%
26-Nov	at Southern Miss	72	-6.8	35%
Projected wins: 7.0

Five-Year F/+ Rk	2.3% (55)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	84 / 81
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	1 / 3.7
2015 TO Luck/Game	-1.0
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	39% (42%, 37%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	9.3 (-0.3)

10. Survive, then advance

With new starters in the offensive and defensive backfields and front seven, it's easy to see two different Louisiana Tech teams taking the field in 2016 -- an inexperienced, not-quite-gelled team that takes its lumps against Arkansas and Texas Tech (and maybe MTSU) early, and a more seasoned squad that rolls through the weak portion of its Conference USA schedule late. After three road games against projected top-90 teams in September, Tech faces six opponents projected 113th or worse in a seven-game span in October and November.

The key to this transition year will be how quickly the new pieces gel. Expect either a 1-3 or 2-2 start, but if the Bulldog two-deep is coagulating reasonably well, Tech could finish with six or seven wins in its last eight games. If confidence or depth issues emerge, however, then a trip to FIU becomes quite losable, and a 5-7 or 6-6 finish ends up on the table.

Skip Holtz has already done a better job in Ruston than I anticipated, but he's got a challenge on his hands in 2016. However the two-deep ends up taking shape, most of it will return in 2017, and like Marshall, the Bulldogs could experience a nice breakthrough. But depending on whether there are a few growing pains or a lot, 2016 might be more transition year than statement year.