ULM's new coach inherits a tough job, but might have the right experience for it

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1. Hard jobs remain hard

Todd Berry did something that hadn't been done before. Six other coaches had led UL-Monroe into battle at the FBS/I-A level, and none had ever taken the Warhawks to a bowl game. But in 2012, he did just that, and in 2013, he almost did as well. They won 14 games in those two seasons; in only one other two-year span had they ever won even 12 (1980-81).

Berry was in a lot of ways the mid-major version of Jim Grobe at Wake Forest. Both took on nearly impossible jobs at schools with minimal histories. Both dealt with worse budgets, facilities, support, etc., than their conference brethren. Both took unorthodox tactical approaches. And both managed to win games for a bit. Granted, Grobe sustained his success for a longer period of time (28 wins from 2006-08, five bowls overall), the similarities between both the programs and the coaches are obvious. And for both, eventually the bag of tricks ran out.

At ULM, it happened like it does in a lot of places. Your collection of diamonds-in-the-rough runs out of eligibility, and the next set of diamonds aren't diamonds at all. Berry couldn't find a quarterback that fit his system as well as Kolton Browning had in 2012-13. He couldn't find a trio of receivers as effective and durable as Brent Leonard, Je'Ron Hamm, and Tavarese Maye were. He couldn't put together another linebacking corps like the 2012 collection of Ray Stovall, DaCorris Ford, and R.J. Young (34.5 tackles for loss in 2012).

In the end, Berry's tenure fizzled out pretty quickly. From eight wins in 2012, ULM fell to six, then four, then two. Berry was fired after a 1-9 start, and while the Warhawks rallied in his honor (they lost by only two at Hawaii, then beat NMSU), there was justice in the firing. As well as he had done in building hope in Monroe, he was out of answers.

Hard jobs remain hard at all times, and with the state of Louisiana going through pretty hardcore budget issues at the moment, the ULM job might be harder than ever at the moment.  But after expressing interest in some younger up-and-comers -- Auburn offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee, WKU offensive coordinator Tyson Helton, Grambling head coach Broderick Fobbs -- the school replaced Berry with someone who has pretty specific hard-job-in-Louisiana experience. After 10 seasons at McNeese State, 200 miles away in Lake Charles, Matt Viator was hired in mid-December.

Viator was a steady winner at McNeese. His Cowboys went to the FCS playoffs five times and won at least 10 games three times. He won shares of four Southland Conference titles, and McNeese State actually finished ahead of ULM in the Sagarin ratings in two of the last three years. And again, he knows what it's like to recruit and guide a program in this tricky, unique state.

This was the exact opposite of a sexy hire, but winning in Monroe isn't about sexy. Viator is a successful FCS head coach, and he's brought in some successful FCS coordinators. It's going to take them a while to make something out of a pretty limited collection of talent, but at the least the sophomore class appears promising, and the expectations bar will be pretty low for a while. And they actually wanted the job. That's a plus, too.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-11 | Adj. Record: 1-12 | Final F/+ Rk: 121 | Final S&P+ Rk: 122
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	at Georgia	30	14-51	L	3%	0%	-9.9	-1.0
12-Sep	Nicholls State	N/A	47-0	W	83%	100%	+16.7
26-Sep	at Alabama	1	0-34	L	3%	0%	+12.0	+4.0
3-Oct	Georgia Southern	48	31-51	L	7%	0%	-7.6	-14.0
10-Oct	at Tulsa	95	24-34	L	24%	25%	+18.1	-0.5
17-Oct	Appalachian State	42	14-59	L	7%	0%	-30.7	-33.5
24-Oct	at Idaho	114	13-27	L	14%	12%	-11.1	-12.5
31-Oct	at UL-Lafayette	104	24-30	L	33%	45%	+8.5	+5.5
7-Nov	at Troy	90	14-51	L	2%	0%	-23.3	-27.0
14-Nov	Arkansas State	71	21-59	L	13%	2%	-23.4	-23.5
19-Nov	at Texas State	116	3-16	L	6%	2%	-4.8	-6.5
28-Nov	at Hawaii	120	26-28	L	18%	28%	+3.7	-2.0
5-Dec	New Mexico State	118	42-35	W	40%	73%	+10.0	+7.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	14.5	125	34.5	104
Points Per Game	21.0	111	36.5	113

2. Never a chance

Out of sheer necessity, ULM takes on payout games like few at the FBS level. In the 22 seasons since rejoining FBS, the Warhawks have played 12 of 14 current SEC teams at least once (everyone but South Carolina and Vanderbilt), along with seven Big 12 teams, five Pac-12 teams, four ACC teams, and two Big Ten teams. They've taken on Arkansas 10 times and Auburn nine times. And while that opens up the opportunity for monumental upsets -- they beat Alabama in 2007 and Arkansas in 2012 and have come close quite a few other times -- most of the time it just means blowout losses.

ULM was desperate for traction after a 4-8 campaign in 2014, but the schedule simply wouldn't allow it. The Warhawks played four top-50 opponents in the first six games and lost those four games by an average score of 49-15. Then, following that gauntlet, they played three straight conference road games. Decent performances -- a 10-point loss at Tulsa, a six-point loss at rival UL-Lafayette -- were swallowed up by blowouts, and the Berry era ended with a 16-3 loss at Texas State.

It's a new coaching era now, but the scheduling remains the same. After opening the season with Southern, ULM will mix a pretty rough conference road slate (which includes visits to each of the Sun Belt's top three teams) with trips to Oklahoma, Auburn, and a New Mexico team coming off of its best season in nearly a decade. The good news is that all five home games come against teams projected 106th or worse. The bad news is that post-blowout morale could continue to be an issue.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.22	89	IsoPPP+	76.4	123
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	34.2%	123	Succ. Rt. +	79.3	122
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	35.7	127	Def. FP+	35.8	126
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.4	70	Redzone S&P+	92.7	103
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	32.9		ACTUAL	30	-2.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	123	119	122	123
RUSHING	124	127	127	126
PASSING	83	118	114	120
Standard Downs		118	121	113
Passing Downs		125	121	126

Q1 Rk	111	1st Down Rk	127
Q2 Rk	115	2nd Down Rk	115
Q3 Rk	109	3rd Down Rk	118
Q4 Rk	128

3. A Matt Kubik offense

Viator's 2015 offense at McNeese State was built around former Kansas State quarterback Daniel Sams, who threw for 1,666 yards and rushed for 934. It was a run-heavy attack -- 27 pass attempts and 45 rush attempts per game -- and it chewed up clock for a defense that faced only 64 plays per game.

New offensive coordinator Matt Kubik's Stephen F. Austin offense, meanwhile? A little bit different. The Lumberjacks attempted 38 passes and 35 rushes per game, leaning on more of an efficiency-based passing game and fewer QB rushes (about 10 per game). Five players caught between 21 and 44 passes in 11 games. And whereas the McNeese offense created a power-heavy 69 percent in terms of solo tackles (the higher the ratio of solo tackles, the more spread-ish your offense is), SFA's was a bit more spread-out 74 percent. McNeese averaged about 2.15 snaps per minute; SFA averaged 2.45.

These aren't night-and-day differences, but with a limited attack it will be interesting to see if Viator, who ran the McNeese offense but is handing play-calling duties to Kubik, tries to get Kubik to slow things down a bit. And it will also be interesting to see how much Kubik tries to air things out. Before spending two years as SFA's offensive coordinator, he spent three years as receivers coach for pass-happy Central Arkansas.

ULM will probably not be attempting any sort of high-octane, run- or pass-heavy attack in 2016. Kubik inherits a sophomore quarterback who took some lumps last year (and showed decent mobility), an experienced (but not particularly effective) receiving corps of mostly small guys, a pair of interesting running backs, and a line full of experience and size and no track record of success.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Garrett Smith	6'0, 211	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7886	191	333	2033	17	11	57.4%	23	6.5%	5.5
Earnest Carrington					56	119	539	5	7	47.1%	10	7.8%	3.7
Brayle Brown					3	11	25	0	0	27.3%	2	15.4%	0.9
Brian Williams	6'4, 213	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	5	10	101	3	1	50.0%	0	0.0%	10.1
Chandler Eiland	5'11, 197	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8019
Will Collins	6'11, 211	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7919

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Kaylon Watson	RB	6'0, 218	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685	96	331	0	3.4	3.9	28.1%	3	3
Ben Luckett	RB	5'11, 214	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7652	94	509	2	5.4	5.8	38.3%	1	0
Garrett Smith	QB	6'0, 211	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7886	85	332	2	3.9	3.8	31.8%	8	3
DeVontae McNeal	RB					56	204	2	3.6	5.3	26.8%	3	1
Earnest Carrington	QB					24	137	1	5.7	4.9	41.7%	2	1
Brayle Brown	QB					12	40	0	3.3	2.9	33.3%	0	0
Brian Williams	QB	6'4, 213	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	6	8	0	1.3	4.0	16.7%	0	0
Thomas Koufie	RB	5'11, 220	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7583
Kayin White	RB	5'11, 222	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7400

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Ajalen Holley	WR	5'10, 193	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7600	114	60	709	52.6%	25.3%	6.2	49.1%	37.7%	1.58
Marcus Green	WR	5'8, 190	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7433	106	63	698	59.4%	23.5%	6.6	62.3%	44.3%	1.39
Tyler Cain (2014)	WR	5'8, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	59	45	273	76.3%	11.8%	4.6	50.8%	N/A	N/A
Jared Mapps	WR	6'2, 200	Sr.	NR	NR	49	26	236	53.1%	10.9%	4.8	46.9%	36.7%	1.17
Rashon Ceaser	WR					44	31	325	70.5%	9.8%	7.4	61.4%	52.3%	1.28
Kaylon Watson	RB	6'0, 218	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685	29	20	183	69.0%	6.4%	6.3	72.4%	31.0%	2.06
Harley Scioneaux	TE					27	15	197	55.6%	6.0%	7.3	59.3%	48.1%	1.45
Xavier Brown	WR	6'0, 186	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7400	16	8	69	50.0%	3.5%	4.3	68.8%	43.8%	0.87
D'Marius Gillespie	WR	6'0, 210	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726	16	6	39	37.5%	3.5%	2.4	62.5%	18.8%	1.21
DeVontae McNeal	RB					12	9	104	75.0%	2.7%	8.7	83.3%	25.0%	3.33
Stoney Hawkins	TE	6'2, 224	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7533	10	5	43	50.0%	2.2%	4.3	40.0%	30.0%	1.25
Ben Luckett	RB	5'11, 214	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7652	8	4	26	50.0%	1.8%	3.3	50.0%	37.5%	0.92
Tre' Perrier	WR	5'8, 179	Sr.	NR	NR	7	5	36	71.4%	1.6%	5.1	42.9%	57.1%	0.65
De'Vonte Haggerty	WR	5'11, 189	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7500	5	2	17	40.0%	1.1%	3.4	60.0%	20.0%	1.47
Markis McCray	WR	5'10, 165	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8044	4	1	4	25.0%	0.9%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.00
Alec Osborne	TE	6'3, 234	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7894
Brennen Bradley	WR	6'4, 201	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000
Josh Pederson	TE	6'4, 210	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893

4. Hope in the sophomore class

There wasn't much to like about the 2015 ULM offense. The Warhawks were pass-happy, in part because they couldn't run, and they didn't rank in the top 100 in any of the opponent-adjusted offensive stats above.

Kubik's got his work cut out for him, but if you don't have any proven quality, you at least want to see some youth, some guys you might be able to develop into something interesting over time. And if you look at the individual stats above, you find that sophomores provided the most interesting glimpses.

• Quarterback Garrett Smith completed 57 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns despite minimal run threat, and despite missing the last three games of the year with injury. He had a predictably miserable time against Alabama (17-for-37 for 74 yards and two picks), but his passer rating hit 137 or higher on three occasions, and he went 23-for-29 against Georgia. He has efficiency potential, and he can scramble a bit.
• Running back Ben Luckett was up and down all year, but he rushed a combined 26 times for 214 yards against SBC heavyweights Appalachian State and Arkansas State, and his advanced stats -- 38 percent opportunity rate, 5.8 highlight yards per opportunity -- were decent. Junior counterpart Kaylon Watson will get a run, too, but Luckett flashed more upside in 2015.
• Receiver Marcus Green caught 63 passes as a redshirt freshman, and among 2015 ULM wideouts (not including Tyler Cain, who missed the entire season), he had the highest catch rate, success rate, and average yards per target. He had 12 catches for 149 against Troy and 12 for 103 against Hawaii. He could develop into a strong possession option.

The receiving corps is small, and aside from maybe Luckett, we don't know if there's a big-play threat on the roster. But you could see the components of a nice efficiency offense developing over the next year or two.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	76.2	2.58	1.59	32.0%	68.0%	20.9%	81.1	5.4%	9.6%
Rank	126	110	128	121	50	88	95	75	99

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Colby Mitchell	C					13	24
Frank Sutton, Jr.	LG	6'3, 302	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	12	19
Chase Regian	RT	6'3, 297	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	7	19
Rey Baltazar	LT	6'5, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7433	13	13
Jeff Savage	RG	6'2, 297	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7985	13	13
Keaton Baggs	RT	6'5, 297	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7652	5	5
Jimmy Chung	LG					0	1
Brady Willcutt	LT	6'1, 280	So.	NR	NR	0	0
Brian Thlang	C	6'1, 299	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7683	0	0
Jake Snyder	RG	6'2, 291	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	0	0
Brandon Bridgers	LT	6'4, 299	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7300	0	0
T.J. Fiailoa	OL	6'4, 340	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8167
Samuel Williams	OL	6'7, 275	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8254

5. Size and experience up front, at least

From a preview perspective, you're basically gauging a line by looking at last year's stats, returning starts, and general size and recruiting rankings. ULM checks two of the four boxes ... but probably the two least important. They return five players who have started 69 career games. Good! The 11 players listed above average 6'3, 298. Good enough!

The two other boxes, however, remain unchecked. While ULM was pretty good in short yardage situations and not completely awful at keeping defenders out of the backfield, they couldn't create opportunities for their (admittedly shaky) running backs. And while two incoming freshmen (TJ Tiailoa and Samuel Williams) were each three-star recruits per the 247Sports Composite, they're freshmen. It's hard to imagine an incredible amount of upside here.

Viator did land a pretty seasoned offensive line coach, however. Rob Sale was Georgia's OL coach last year after spending three years with Viator at McNeese State. He might be able to mold something pretty interesting there within a year or two.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.32	94	IsoPPP+	98.4	72
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.3%	59	Succ. Rt. +	97.5	73
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.6	101	Off. FP+	27.8	104
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.4	66	Redzone S&P+	93.1	98
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.8		ACTUAL	14.0	-3.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	93	72	73	72
RUSHING	105	46	62	39
PASSING	55	100	85	112
Standard Downs		57	60	60
Passing Downs		96	100	95

Q1 Rk	93	1st Down Rk	74
Q2 Rk	91	2nd Down Rk	73
Q3 Rk	65	3rd Down Rk	79
Q4 Rk	43

6. A Mike Collins defense

New defensive coordinator Mike Collins spent the last three seasons as Sam Houston State's DC after serving as a Viator assistant from 2008-12. At SHSU, he had the pieces to attack, and he did so. The Bearkats recorded 122 tackles for loss with a havoc rate of 19.7 percent, which would have ranked 12th at the FBS level. SHSU stuffed the run, created a lot of third-and-longs, and attempted to render opponents one-dimensional. They took risks, got burned a few times, and made a lot of stops.

In its better moments, ULM was similar. Looking at unadjusted numbers above, the Warhawks ranked 59th in success rate but 94th in IsoPPP; they allowed 25 passes of 30-plus yards (105th in FBS), but when they forced a third down, it was a long one (average distance to go: 7.4, 47th in FBS).

Of course, that was last year's personnel. Not only is Collins going to attempt to transition from Berry's unique 3-3-5 attack, but he's going to do so without four of last year's top five linemen and all three starting linebackers.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	102	2.78	3.24	39.8%	63.0%	21.8%	100.3	5.0%	8.0%
Rank	49	45	67	83	46	45	65	65	53

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Gerrand Johnson	DT					12	48.5	6.1%	10.0	3.5	0	3	1	0
Ben Banogu	DE					13	35.0	4.4%	14.5	5.0	0	2	2	0
Lorenzo Jackson	DE					13	21.5	2.7%	4.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Colton Moorehead	DE	6'3, 257	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7867	13	13.5	1.7%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Jackson Randle	DT					13	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Derion Ford	DT	6'0, 290	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719	7	3.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
David Elias, Jr.	DT	6'2, 274	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859	5	3.0	0.4%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jacob Tyson	DE	6'1, 273	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7519
Donald Louis, Jr.	DE	6'2, 271	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8017
Sam Miller	DE	6'3, 219	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8082
Jaylen Veasley	DT	6'2, 278	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7948
Shaquille Warren	DE	6'2, 246	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7659
Howard Houston, Jr.	DT	6'1, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000
Tyler Johnson	DT	6'3, 283	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7600
Ty Shelby	DE	6'5, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8194

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Hunter Kissinger	LB					11	106.0	13.3%	11.5	2.0	1	0	0	0
Michael Johnson	LB					13	80.0	10.0%	13.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
Cody Robinson	LB					9	39.5	4.9%	5.0	3.5	0	1	1	0
David Griffith	LB	6'0, 211	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719	13	30.0	3.8%	6.0	2.0	0	0	1	0
Braxton Moore	LB	5'11, 221	Sr.	NR	NR	10	18.5	2.3%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Caleb Tucker	LB	6'2, 231	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8306	13	18.0	2.3%	5.0	2.5	0	1	0	0
Tevyn Cagins	LB	6'2, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7100	13	15.5	1.9%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jarred Dunn	LB	6'0, 219	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7500	11	6.5	0.8%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Cody McGuire	LB	6'2, 231	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7494	13	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Sterling Doss	LB	6'0, 225	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7700
Chase Day	LB	6'1, 216	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759
Kyle Nevels	LB	6'3, 235	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859

7. Playing time available!

The good news: The few returnees who actually saw the field in 2015 flashed some play-making potential. End Colton Moorehead made a couple of plays, tackle David Elias Jr. made 2.5 of his three tackles behind the line, linebackers David Griffith and Caleb Tucker combined for 11 tackles for loss in occasional action, etc.

The bad news: Wow, is the front seven going to be young this year. Moorehead is a senior, and Elias and Tucker are juniors, but almost everybody else on the two-deep will either be sophomores, redshirt freshmen, or February signees. There is a lack of discipline, a propensity for breakdown, that comes with playing inexperienced personnel, and it will probably handcuff Collins' ability to attack like he wants to.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Trey Caldwell	CB					13	46.0	5.8%	5.5	0	1	10	0	0
Tre' Hunter	S	6'0, 188	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7200	12	45.5	5.7%	0.5	0	2	2	1	0
Lenzy Pipkins	CB	6'0, 201	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7900	13	41.0	5.1%	1	1	0	2	1	0
Wesley Thompson	S	6'1, 193	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7652	13	40.0	5.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mitch Lane	S					9	36.5	4.6%	1	1	0	2	0	0
Roland Jenkins	S	5'11, 198	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7700	13	22.5	2.8%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
Marquis McCullum	S	5'11, 188	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	12	16.5	2.1%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Alex Johnson	S	5'11, 197	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7800	13	16.0	2.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Aaron Townsend	S	6'0, 175	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7433	13	15.5	1.9%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Justin Backus	S	6'2, 184	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7600	4	14.0	1.8%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Junior Williams	CB					12	11.5	1.4%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Marcus Hubbard	CB	5'9, 173	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7644	13	11.0	1.4%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Ferrando Joseph	CB	5'10, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	12	7.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brynden Vance	S	6'0, 195	So.	NR	NR	10	3.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Grant Dotsy	CB	5'10, 184	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7300
Cortez Sisco, Jr.	S	5'11, 199	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8377
Xavier Dias	S	5'10, 175	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8126
Terry Ausborne, Jr.	DB	5'11, 172	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7583
Jayrin Wilson	CB	5'11, 165	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926
Logan Latin	CB	5'9, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8006

8. The lone play-maker is gone

Depth and experience won't, however, be an issue in the secondary. Between playing five DBs in most situations and dealing with quite a few injuries, 12 different ULM defensive backs recorded at least 11 tackles in 2015. That eight of them return is undoubtedly a good thing, even if ULM's pass defense was pretty sketchy. The problem: The one guy who could absolutely make plays -- corner Trey Caldwell -- is one of the three departees. He alone had 5.5 tackles for loss and 11 passes defensed; the aforementioned eight returnees combiend for four and nine, respectively. Yikes.

Berry's parting gift to Viator and Collins might come in handy in the coming years. Per 247, he's leaving behind three-star redshirt freshmen on the line (Donald Louis Jr. and Sam Miller) and in the secondary (Cortez Sisco Jr. and Xavier Dias). Viator added a couple more decent recruits and some JUCOs, and it's not hard to see a 2017 ULM defense combining strong experience with decent athleticism and depth.

But that's 2017. In 2016, Collins will be forced to choose between taking risks that get you burned a lot and playing things rather safe, hoping to prevent big plays, and giving up a lot of long, exhausting drives. Those aren't great options.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Chris Qualls			87	36.7	3	37	21	66.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Craig Ford	6'2, 168	So.	56	56.7	6	1	10.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Craig Ford	6'2, 168	So.	33-33	7-10	70.0%	2-4	50.0%
Spencer Perkins			1-1	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Trey Caldwell	KR			14	23.1	0
Marcus Green	KR	5'8, 190	So.	10	20.2	0
Junior Williams	PR			6	-0.5	0
Rashon Ceaser	PR			3	5.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	126
Field Goal Efficiency	116
Punt Return Success Rate	108
Kick Return Success Rate	27
Punt Success Rate	118
Kickoff Success Rate	117

9. When rebuilding is a positive

As with the defensive front seven, there will be a lot of new names in ULM's 2016 special teams unit. But in this case, that's not necessarily bad news. Last year ULM returned kickoffs relatively well and did everything else poorly. Return man Marcus Green is back, as is sophomore place-kicker Craig Ford, but at the least, punting and punt returns will be manned by new guys.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Southern U.	NR	16.9	84%
10-Sep	at Oklahoma	4	-41.9	1%
1-Oct	at Auburn	24	-32.4	3%
22-Oct	at New Mexico	102	-11.5	25%
TBA	Idaho	108	-1.7	46%
TBA	South Alabama	115	-0.1	50%
TBA	Texas State	120	1.1	53%
TBA	UL-Lafayette	106	-2.4	45%
TBA	at Appalachian State	59	-23.5	9%
TBA	at Arkansas State	89	-16.3	17%
TBA	at Georgia Southern	52	-24.3	8%
TBA	at Georgia State	105	-10.7	27%
Projected wins: 3.7

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-25.1% (105)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	118 / 123
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-16 / -15.1
2015 TO Luck/Game	-0.4
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	65% (78%, 51%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	2.9 (-0.9)

10. Every home game is winnable

There are indeed two ways to look at ULM's schedule. The first is that a brutal road slate, which features visits to Oklahoma, Auburn, and five other teams that bowled in 2015, will absolutely wipe away any semblance of depth and confidence that Viator is attempting to build.

The other, more optimistic way: Yeah, at least five or six of these seven road games are out of reach, but every home game is winnable. We don't yet know the Sun Belt schedule, so we don't know how the games will be distributed, but if Viator can keep morale up during and after some tough road trips, the Warhawks could threaten to go 4-8 or 5-7. That's not amazing, but for a team that has lost 18 of its last 21 games, that could be markable progress.

In terms of fit, it's hard to imagine a better hire for ULM than Viator. He proved at McNeese State that he could navigate Louisiana waters and put a strong-for-its-level team on the field. Because of the competition, the ULM job is probably harder than that one, but he could be up for the challenge. But if he's going to find success, it will likely be with the players who are currently freshmen and sophomores. There are wins on the table in 2016, but the measuring stick will be how frequently this team shows promise and development, not how frequently it wins.