NMSU is fighting for its future and entering Year 4 of a rebuild. The time is now.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Year 4 of a 4-year plan

Under normal circumstances, time is a vague concept for New Mexico State football. The program's history has done a good job of simulating the effect of driving through New Mexico: vast swaths of nothingness followed by brief bursts of excitement.

The program was decent in the 1930s, and the 1940s and 1950s saw a sustained drought. The Aggies were consistently solid and occasionally great under Warren Woodson from 1958-67, lived through up-and-down-periods in the 1970s and early-1980s, then fell off the face of the earth again.

After a brief flash of promise under Tony Samuel at the turn of the century (6-5 in 1999, 7-5 in 2002), the Aggies went back to ceasing to exist. NMSU hasn't won more than four games in a season since Samuel's last year (5-6 in 2004). Old air raid innovator Hal Mumme won 11 games in four seasons (2005-08), and successor DeWayne Walker couldn't even match that from 2009-12.

There is no short road in New Mexico, only long. And fourth-year head coach Doug Martin has acknowledged that. Though he only has a 7-29 record to show for it, Martin has attempted to methodically lay a foundation in Las Cruces. He has taken on few transfers, preferring instead to build with five-year players. And in 2016, his squad will boast a high level of experience.

For two years now, I've been talking about Martin's insistence on taking the long road. 2014:

This really is a building-for-2016 situation, and the expectations should be set accordingly. If they win a couple of games, find their quarterback, and at least don't regress defensively (and yes, it is technically possible to regress), then that's probably enough for now. I admire Martin's refusal to take shortcuts, but that means the road's awfully long.

2015:

In a video game, your young guys get fed to the wolves, build experience, then become the wolves. It doesn't always work in real life, with real 18-22-year-olds who don't tend to enjoy losing. But Martin will field an infinitely more experienced team this fall, and he'll easily field the deepest squad of his tenure, one that actually features more than 80 scholarship players for the first time in quite a while.

In my 2014 preview, I said Martin was building for 2016; well, it's not 2016 yet, is it?

It's 2016 now. Martin's inexperienced, undersized guys have taken lumps. Soon, he will actually face the burden of minor expectations. But in a roundabout way, the youth movement has come at a decent time.

NMSU's football program faces an uncertain future, living on the geographical outskirts of basically every conference and being unable to lean on a base of historical success. On March 10, the Sun Belt Conference will vote on whether or not to keep NMSU as a football member after its current contract runs out in 2017.

The school's recent "Here's why you should keep us" presentation was actually sound and interesting, revolving around the idea of investment. The program is spending money on its program and figuring out ways to to allay the costs of other schools traveling to Las Cruces. And the fact that the team was still young as hell last season allowed the school to say "Look at what we're building" instead of "Look at what we've built." The former doesn't require proof of success.

When NMSU takes the field in the Sun Bowl against UTEP on September 3, its near future will have either already been settled by a Sun Belt re-up, or it will be as unsettled as ever. The Aggies' FBS membership survived the dissolution of the WAC as a football conference and a brief stint as an FBS independent. Doing so again would be pretty dicey, but one thing is certain: 2016 would be a great time for NMSU to be good at football.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 1-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 118 | Final S&P+ Rk: 116
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	at Florida	27	13-61	L	4%	0%	-27.0	-11.0
12-Sep	Georgia State	87	32-34	L	51%	55%	-1.8	-9.0
19-Sep	UTEP	125	47-50	L	42%	63%	-4.0	-0.5
3-Oct	at New Mexico	99	29-38	L	46%	52%	+0.1	+3.5
10-Oct	at Ole Miss	5	3-52	L	3%	0%	-22.3	-5.5
17-Oct	at Georgia Southern	48	26-56	L	2%	0%	-17.7	-1.0
24-Oct	Troy	90	7-52	L	3%	0%	-44.7	-45.0
31-Oct	Idaho	114	55-48	W	45%	65%	+10.3	+12.5
7-Nov	at Texas State	116	31-21	W	39%	54%	+22.3	+27.0
21-Nov	at UL-Lafayette	104	37-34	W	43%	55%	+13.6	+20.0
28-Nov	Arkansas State	71	28-52	L	19%	3%	-12.8	-7.0
5-Dec	at UL-Monroe	121	35-42	L	22%	27%	-10.0	-7.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	25.6	88	41.4	124
Points Per Game	28.6	66	45.0	126

2. Promise in the right weight class

In attempting to bring whatever talent he can to Las Cruces, Martin has eschewed size requirements. His workhorse running back, the phenomenal Larry Rose III, is 5'11, 184. Perhaps his most promising receiver is 5'9, 162. He doesn't have a defensive end over 245 pounds. Maybe his most promising safety is 5'8, 180.

By choosing five-year recruits, he's giving himself plenty of time to bulk some of these guys up, and to be sure, both of his lines should be bigger in 2016 than they have been in a while. But by lacking a certain level of pure heft, that means the Aggies have been particularly limited against bigger teams, even by the standards of your typically bad mid-major.

• Average Percentile Performance (vs. S&P+ top 50): 3% (Average score: Opp 56, NMSU 14)
• Average Percentile Performance (vs. everyone else): 34% (Average score: Opp 41, NMSU 33)
  -- minus the Troy game: 38% (Average score: Opp 40, NMSU 37)

Against three top-50 opponents, NMSU got completely manhandled. And after facing two of these three in back-to-back weeks, the apparently exhausted Aggies proceeded to get whomped by No. 90 Troy as well. These four results were the basis for the Aggies' No. 116 final S&P+ ranking.

That said, NMSU was a reasonably decent team in its other eight games, playing at what was basically a top-90 level when punching in the right weight class. They went 3-5 in these eight games, with three of the losses coming by one possession. Beyond that, they were 3-3 in these games until apparently losing a couple of steps in the final two weeks of the season.

If you're looking for signs of progress, there you go. Depth and size issues continued to hold NMSU back, but there was a little bit of promise, at least on offense -- the Aggies scored at least 26 points in nine of 12 games. And now Martin has brought in an old friend, renowned coordinator Frank Spaziani, to help him with what are some drastic defensive issues.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.48	2	IsoPPP+	96.0	86
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	35.8%	113	Succ. Rt. +	86.4	115
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	32.4	115	Def. FP+	31.9	108
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.4	64	Redzone S&P+	86.1	115
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.6		ACTUAL	21	-1.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	42	104	115	86
RUSHING	51	34	64	23
PASSING	41	117	123	112
Standard Downs		107	114	86
Passing Downs		82	94	70

Q1 Rk	91	1st Down Rk	89
Q2 Rk	116	2nd Down Rk	70
Q3 Rk	118	3rd Down Rk	100
Q4 Rk	27

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Andrew Allen	6'1, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7827	115	214	1529	16	8	53.7%	18	7.8%	6.1
Tyler Rogers	6'3, 213	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	72	135	974	7	3	53.3%	10	6.9%	6.3
Nick Jeanty	6'2, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8115	54	101	531	3	2	53.5%	7	6.5%	4.6
Tyler Matthews (TCU/So. Miss)	6'4, 215	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8957

3. All the experience you could want, Part 1

At quarterback, NMSU boasts three players who threw at least 100 passes last year and will welcome former four-star recruit Tyler Matthews to the party after he finishes up at Southern Miss this spring.

At running back, the Aggies have junior Larry Rose III and senior Xavier Hall, who combined for 288 carries and 38 receptions in 2015. At receiver, four returnees (five including Rose) were targeted at least 40 times last year, and all but one is either a junior or senior.

On the offensive line, four returnees (two juniors and two seniors) have combined for 50 career starts.

Granted, the timing up front is a bit off -- NMSU must replace three starters who combined for about eight years' worth of starts -- but Martin's building process continues apace. He started with freshmen and sophomores, then continued with sophomores and juniors. Now he's got almost a full allotment of scholarships, along with junior and senior classes full of guys who have been through quite a few battles.

Experience alone only means so much without talent and athleticism. But on offense especially, there appears to be a little bit of all three. And within the Sun Belt, where the talent differential between the top and bottom teams isn't particularly dramatic, having more experience than your opponent can carry you through in close games.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Larry Rose III	RB	5'11, 184	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7633	240	1651	14	6.9	8.9	40.4%	4	3
Andrew Allen	QB/WR	6'1, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7827	57	301	0	5.3	3.5	47.4%	4	2
Xavier Hall	RB	5'8, 181	Sr.	NR	NR	48	165	1	3.4	3.0	29.2%	0	0
Tyler Rogers	QB	6'3, 213	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	19	122	1	6.4	5.8	52.6%	0	0
Nick Jeanty	QB	6'2, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8115	17	88	0	5.2	5.6	35.3%	2	0
Jermichael Selders	RB					14	70	0	5.0	2.9	57.1%	0	0
Brandyn Leonard	RB	6'0, 168	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593

4. Larry Rose III is a legitimate star

The NMSU passing game was still pretty poor last year, which is problematic in a pass-first system. When you've got Larry Rose III in the backfield, play-action bombs can become a devastating weapon, but you still need to be consistent and efficient enough that opponents cannot load up the box to stop Rose.

There was at least major big-play potential early on: Against Georgia State and UTEP, Tyler Rogers completed only 45 of 83 passes (54 percent), but for 730 yards, six touchdowns, and only two picks.

But Rogers got hurt against New Mexico and missed the rest of the season. That meant extended playing time for QB-turned-WR-turned-QB Andrew Allen and three-star redshirt freshman Nick Jeanty. Allen was hot-and-cold -- 106.4 passer rating in his first three games, 147.1 in his last four -- and Jeanty was inconsistent when Allen was dealing with a November injury.

All three players showed upside, and in theory, the addition of Tyler Matthews would lend even more upside to the position. This will be a fascinating QB race. I assume Rogers is the most likely to win the job, but Allen really did improve as the year progressed, and Jeanty and Matthews were both well-regarded recruits.

But while the passing game needs to improve, the quarterback will not be the main name on this offense. Here's a list of FBS players who had more than 20 20-yard carries in 2015:

1. Dalvin Cook (Florida State)
   
2. Larry Rose III (NMSU)

That's it. That's the entire list. Rose is a stick of dynamite. He's not a huge guy, and loading him up with about 20 carries and four pass targets per game is probably about all that he should be asked to handle. But despite opponents keying on him, he was remarkably consistent. He rushed 41 times for 446 yards and four scores against UTEP and New Mexico. And in a five-game stretch starting with Troy, he averaged 24 carries and 179 yards per game.

If the passing game is even a little bit trustworthy and Rose stays healthy, he could threaten 2,000 yards, even if his carries don't rise tremendously. He is one of the most dangerous players in the Group of Five. He might be the most dangerous.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Teldrick Morgan	WR-H	6'0, 195	Sr.	NR	NR	75	45	551	60.0%	17.7%	7.3	49.3%	36.0%	1.92
Tyrian Taylor	WR-Z	5'9, 162	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7633	62	40	690	64.5%	14.7%	11.1	67.7%	51.6%	1.92
Jordan Bergstrom	WR-X					60	27	437	45.0%	14.2%	7.3	73.3%	40.0%	1.77
Gregory Hogan	WR-X	6'1, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	51	24	370	47.1%	12.1%	7.3	54.9%	37.3%	1.83
Larry Rose III	RB	5'11, 184	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7633	44	30	283	68.2%	10.4%	6.4	65.9%	22.7%	2.55
Royce Caldwell	WR	5'8, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7700	42	22	272	52.4%	9.9%	6.5	69.0%	33.3%	1.76
Joshua Bowen	WR-H					42	29	239	69.0%	9.9%	5.7	52.4%	31.0%	1.66
Rayvean Moore	WR-Z					14	9	84	64.3%	3.3%	6.0	64.3%	50.0%	1.14
Xavier Hall	RB	5'8, 181	Sr.	NR	NR	13	8	53	61.5%	3.1%	4.1	38.5%	15.4%	2.53
Clayton Granch	TE	6'3, 247	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7533	5	3	34	60.0%	1.2%	6.8	100.0%	60.0%	0.85
OJ Clark	WR	5'7, 147	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7755	5	1	7	20.0%	1.2%	1.4	20.0%	20.0%	0.68
Ty Atencio	TE	6'4, 215	Sr.	NR	NR	4	2	11	50.0%	0.9%	2.8	50.0%	25.0%	1.23
Tymon Locklin	WR	6'2, 187	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7383	3	0	0	0.0%	0.7%	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.00
Cassius Corley	WR	6'1, 209	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7710
Isaiah McIntyre	WR	5'11, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7758
Gamar Girdy	WR	5'9, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8052
Drew Dan	WR	6'2, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7785
Jaleel Scott	WR	6'6, 212	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	107.2	3.13	3.08	40.8%	67.4%	22.4%	66.8	6.4%	11.2%
Rank	40	27	78	38	55	103	117	94	115

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Andy Cunningham	RT					12	41
Isaiah Folasa-Lutui	LG					10	34
Houston Clemente	LT					11	24
Abram Holland	RG	6'2, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	12	23
Anthony McMeans	C	6'2, 320	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7400	12	12
Thomas McGwire	RT	6'5, 306	Jr.	NR	NR	0	9
Dezmand Candielaria	RG	6'3, 305	Jr.	NR	NR	2	6
Peter Foreman	RT					1	1
Sebastian Anderson	LT	6'6, 262	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7711	0	0
Spence Ueli-Faatoalia	LG	6'1, 322	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	0	0
Jamin Smith	C	6'3, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7585	0	0

5. Big boys

It's hard to gauge how good the line was in 2015 because a) Rose was so good that he probably had a huge positive impact on the run-blocking stats, and b) the QB position was a revolving door, which probably had a negative impact on the pass blocking stats.

If NMSU has a bit more quarterback stability, that will help the stats alone, but while there is a healthy amount of juniors and seniors up front, losing three starters, including both tackles, is at least a little bit scary. Whereas the other offensive units seem to have been timed to peak in 2016-17, the line may have peaked in 2015.

That said, there is at least size. The seven returnees listed above average 6'3, 301; take out 262-pound Sebastian Anderson, and the average weight goes to 308. In the Sun Belt, that's more than big enough.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.43	119	IsoPPP+	80.9	124
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.5%	104	Succ. Rt. +	88.9	103
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	27.9	110	Off. FP+	27.8	105
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.8	98	Redzone S&P+	87.4	114
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.3		ACTUAL	22.0	+4.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	125	120	103	124
RUSHING	121	117	96	120
PASSING	120	124	117	122
Standard Downs		117	95	120
Passing Downs		122	119	122

Q1 Rk	128	1st Down Rk	124
Q2 Rk	113	2nd Down Rk	117
Q3 Rk	101	3rd Down Rk	122
Q4 Rk	119

6. Hey, Frank

Networking is important! In 2012, Boston College head coach Frank Spaziani, hired Doug Martin as his offensive coordinator in an attempt to turn around a flagging program. It didn't work -- the offense remained about the same, BC went 2-10, and Spaziani was let go -- but it started a nice working relationship. Spaziani consulted with Martin early in Martin's NMSU tenure, and in January, he agreed to take over as defensive coordinator in Las Cruces.

For all of his flaws as a head coach, Spaz has been a pretty awesome defensive coach in a four-decade career. With him as defensive coordinator, Boston College ranked in the Def. S&P+ top 20 each year from 2005-08, and the Eagles remained in the top 25 in the category in his first two years as head coach. His defenses are sound and aggressive.

To say the least, there's a much lower bar for defensive success at NMSU. In 11 years of S&P+ data, the Aggies have never ranked better than 101st in Def. S&P+. They haven't ranked better than 123rd since 2011. They have been destitute of size, speed, and play-making ability, and if Spaziani is able to turn this into even a top-100 unit, it would be a minor miracle.

But with three starters returning from injury and juniors littered throughout the depth chart, he should at least find the experience level to his liking. And he might be able to build something interesting by 2017.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	88.2	3.06	3.06	40.7%	70.0%	16.1%	69.7	4.5%	2.9%
Rank	114	91	49	92	93	107	111	85	124

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Stephen Meredith	DE					12	29.5	4.2%	6.5	2.5	0	0	0	1
Kalei Auelua (2014)	DE	6'2, 245	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	12	26.0	3.4%	2.5	0.5	0	0	1	0
Brandon Agomuo (2014)	DE	6'3, 228	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	11	21.5	2.9%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Noah Brown	DE	6'1, 230	Sr.	NR	NR	12	21.0	3.0%	7.0	3.5	0	0	1	0
Alexander Trujillo	NT					12	20.5	2.9%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jacob Benegas	DT	6'1, 290	Jr.	NR	NR	12	18.0	2.6%	1.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Stody Bradley	DE	6'2, 245	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	10	17.0	2.4%	3.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jassavia Reese	DE	6'4, 244	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859	12	16.5	2.4%	2.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Kourtland Busby	DL	6'3, 275	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7578	7	12.5	1.8%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Drew James	DL	6'2, 292	Sr.	NR	NR	10	6.5	0.9%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Josh Gibbs	NT					12	5.5	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Keanu Higgins	DT	6'2, 267	Jr.	NR	NR
Cedric Wilcots II	DT	6'4, 255	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7433
Derek Watson	DE	6'4, 231	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593
Myles Vigne	DT	6'1, 285	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8004
Darius Anderson	DT	6'1, 310	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8241
Roy Lopez	DT	6'2, 290	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Derek Ibekwe	MIKE	6'0, 233	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956	12	67.0	9.5%	6.5	1.0	0	3	1	0
Terrill Hanks	SAM	6'3, 217	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7844	12	60.5	8.6%	6.5	1.0	3	1	1	0
Dalton Herrington	WILL	6'2, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7594	12	47.5	6.8%	5.5	0.0	0	4	0	0
Rodney Butler	WILL	6'1, 235	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7894	11	42.5	6.1%	4.5	1.0	1	2	0	0
Javahn Fergurson	LB	6'1, 220	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8094	6	16.5	2.4%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Robert Wagner	MIKE	6'1, 236	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	NR	10	9.5	1.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Will Clement	SAM	6'3, 211	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7733	10	5.5	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	1
Dalton Rocha	LB	6'1, 238	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	6	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0

7. All the experience you could want, Part 2

Including 2014 stats for three players who missed all or most of 2015 with injury (ends Kalei Auelua and Brandon Agomuo, safety Kawe Johnson), NMSU basically returns nine of its top 12 defensive linemen, every linebacker, and seven of nine defensive backs.

Granted, these guys have all put together a ton of experience on bad defenses. But experiene is still better than a lack thereof.

While down-to-down consistency will likely still be an issue, it does appear that Spaziani has some potential play-makers to deploy. Spaziani defenses were always known for dynamic linebacker play, and NMSU returns four LBs who recorded at least 4.5 tackles for loss last year. (A fifth, Javahn Fergurson, would have probably hit 4.5 as well if hadn't missed half the season.)

Strangely enough, though, with all this experience, a freshman or two could make the biggest difference. Martin's 2016 recruiting class was highlighted by three big defensive tackles -- Myles Vigne, Darius Anderson, and Roy Lopez. Vigne and Anderson were both three-star signees per the 247Sports Composite, and all three have the size that NMSU have often lacked in recent years. Noah Brown leads a potentially decent set of (undersized) ends, but if NMSU can actually bring some heft to the table this year, it might free up the linebackers to make even more plays.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jacob Nwangwa	FS	6'0, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7600	12	63.5	9.0%	1.5	0	3	1	0	0
Kawe Johnson (2014)	FS	5'8, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	12	59.5	7.9%	3	0	1	0	3	0
Jaden Wright	SS	6'0, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7883	11	54.5	7.8%	0	0	2	1	1	1
Lewis Hill	CB					12	53.0	7.5%	1	0	0	4	1	0
Winston Rose	CB					11	44.5	6.3%	2	0	0	6	0	0
Jonathan Hood	FS	6'0, 202	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7200	12	19.0	2.7%	0	0	0	1	0	0
King Davis III (2014)	DB	6'1, 214	Jr.	NR	NR	6	16.0	2.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
DeMarcus Owens	CB	5'10, 187	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7533	10	14.5	2.1%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Jerrion Burton	CB	5'11, 171	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	8	8.0	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Samuel Oyenuga	DB	5'11, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR	8	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dion Henrique	CB	6'1, 198	Sr.	NR	NR	8	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Malik Demby	SS	6'2, 196	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000
Brandon Bell	CB	5'9, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859
Shamad Lomax	CB	5'10, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859

8. Got any corners?

Kawe Johnson got hurt in September; his return gives NMSU three potentially interesting safeties alongside Jacob Nwangwa and Jaden Wright. Throw in sophomore Jonathan Hood and former QB King Davis III, who has dealt with quite a few injury issues of late, and it appears that the Aggies have the safety position covered.

Great. Now who plays corner? Both 2015 starters (Lewis Hill and Winston Rose) are gone, which leaves junior Jerrion Burton, sophomore DeMarcus Owens, and ... I'm not sure after that. Johnson (who is certainly closer to an average cornerback's size than a safety's)? Senior Dion Henrique? A freshman like Brandon Bell or Shamad Lomax?

A more interesting, disruptive front seven could make a world of difference in and of itself. But cornerback issues could hamper Spaziani's first-year efforts.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Anthony Torres			66	40.6	3	4	19	34.8%
Greg Hutchins			3	35.7	0	1	0	33.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Parker Davidson	5'11, 150	So.	67	61.7	33	7	49.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Parker Davidson	5'11, 150	So.	37-43	7-9	77.8%	3-8	37.5%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Royce Caldwell	KR	5'8, 175	So.	19	14.9	0
Tyrain Taylor	KR	5'9, 162	Sr.	6	25.3	0
Teldrick Morgan	PR	6'0, 195	Sr.	7	8.4	0
Joshua Bowen	PR			5	8.6	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	127
Field Goal Efficiency	102
Punt Return Success Rate	70
Kick Return Success Rate	121
Punt Success Rate	127
Kickoff Success Rate	89

9. A big-legged kicker

Sometimes teams with bad offenses and defenses can at least control the field position game with a good special teams unit. NMSU could not. The Aggies were second-to-last in Special Teams S&P+; the punt return game was decent, but NMSU rarely forced punts. Kick returns were a weakness, Parker Davidson's leg was strong but scattershot on kicks and kickoffs, and punt coverage was abysmal.

There's no guarantee that any of this changes in 2016, but at least Davidson's leg really does seem to have some boom in it. As a freshman, half of his kickoffs resulted in touchbacks, and he made three field goals longer than 40 yards. His full-season numbers were pretty bad, but most of the struggles occurred in the first half of the season -- he was 10-for-15 on PATs in the first four games, and he missed four of five FGs against Ole Miss, Georgia Southern, and Troy. (Hey, if you're going to fall into a slump, you might as well do it in blowouts.) Post-Troy, he was 24-for-24 on PATs and 4-for-6 on FGs. That's better. Now to see if he can return kicks...

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	at UTEP	126	0.0	50%
10-Sep	New Mexico	102	-1.5	46%
17-Sep	at Kentucky	83	-14.5	20%
29-Oct	at Texas A&M	25	-29.4	4%
TBA	Appalachian State	59	-13.5	22%
TBA	Georgia Southern	52	-14.3	20%
TBA	Texas State	120	4.1	59%
TBA	UL-Lafayette	106	0.6	51%
TBA	at Arkansas State	89	-13.3	22%
TBA	at Idaho	108	-5.7	37%
TBA	at South Alabama	115	-4.1	41%
TBA	at Troy	103	-8.4	31%
Projected wins: 4.1

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-48.0% (127)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	127 / 118
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	1 / -5.4
2015 TO Luck/Game	+2.7
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	79% (88%, 71%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	3.8 (-0.8)

10. A little bit of improvement could go a long way

Let's break NMSU's schedule into categories:

• Games with 0-25% win probability: 5
• Games with 26-50% win probability: 6
• Games with 51-75% win probability: 1

That's with NMSU projected 117th in S&P+. But what if Spaziani engineers defensive improvement? And what if stability at quarterback leads to more big pass plays and more running lanes for Larry Rose III? What if NMSU improves even into the No. 100-105 range?

• Games with 0-25% win probability: 1
• Games with 26-50% win probability: 6
• Games with 51-75% win probability: 5

NMSU plays seven teams projected between 102nd and 126th. Give the Aggies the two "ifs" above -- neither of which is incredibly unrealistic -- and expected wins shift from between three and five ... to between five and seven.

Because I feel every fan base should have the opportunity for happiness, I'm rooting for Martin to break through this year. It really isn't hard to see how his Aggies might exceed projections -- experience is off the charts, and additions at QB and defensive tackle give them a little bit more upside than before.

It only takes a couple of ifs to make NMSU a bowl contender, and the Aggies are due some good breaks. We'll know a lot about their future in the coming weeks, but this fall, the present could be more enjoyable than it has been in recent years.