Everett Withers' first Texas State squad will be speedy and completely imbalanced

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1. The end comes quickly

[Dennis Franchione] has navigated constant transition with decent results (6-6 with an upset win at Stephen F. Austin in 2011, 4-8 in the WAC in 2012, 6-6 in the Sun Belt in 2013). And with a young, exciting offense leading the way, he produced TXST's first winning FBS record last fall.

To be sure, he still has building to do; a bad defense has to replace most of its playmakers. But he's recruiting at a pretty high level for the Sun Belt, and his offense has depth, experience, and a fun identity. He was given an opportunity to tack one more successful rebuild onto the résumé, and it looks like he's doing just that.

The end comes quickly for an aging coach. You're keeping up, and then you're not. The energy level changes a little bit, or the attention to detail wanes. You don't see the end coming, and suddenly it's upon you. I was saying nice things about the job Dennis Franchione was doing a year ago, but his program's growth not only stopped suddenly, it reversed.

Age and time catch up with coaches every year. In 2015, South Carolina's Steve Spurrier (70 years old) and UCF's George O'Leary (69), each only two years removed from top-10 finishes, saw their teams go a combined 3-21. And in San Marcos, 64-year-old Franchione retired after overseeing a 3-9 finish. The offense failed to take a step forward, the defense cratered even further, TXST lost to three top-50 teams by an average score of 52-14, and Franchione exited.

Really, Franchione chose the wrong year to break through. In 2014, the Bobcats went 7-5, closing with big wins over Arkansas State and Georgia State but no bowl bid. In 2015, every bowl eligible team (and some ineligible teams) got a bid, but the Bobcats were no longer anywhere close.

Texas State made a solid hire when it brought in Franchione to usher the program to the FBS level. Now, on paper, it seems to have made another. Everett Withers has head coaching experience (one year as UNC's interim, two immensely successful years at James Madison), experience in the state of Texas (Mack Brown's DBs coach from 1998-00), and experience in the Sun Belt footprint (three years at Austin Peay, one at Tulane, two at Southern Miss, etc.).

Withers' time at JMU was an unfettered success. He inherited a 6-6 team that had only been to the FCS playoffs once in five years, and he engineered back-to-back nine-win seasons and playoff appearances. He was a finalist for the Eddie Robinson Award in 2015. His Dukes knocked off SMU and got the No. 8 seed.

Withers had to wait a while for a head coaching opportunity. A former Appalachian State captain, he held defensive coordinator gigs at Louisville, Minnesota, and North Carolina before being thrust into the interim role at UNC in 2011 when Butch Davis was fired. After a couple of years with Urban Meyer at Ohio State, he aced his first real head coaching test, and now he moves up to the Sun Belt.

Withers takes over a job that, like nearly every Texas mid-major, has a lot of potential. Franchione's recruiting was solid for the Sun Belt, and Withers kept most of the pieces of Franchione's recruiting class. He inherits an odd roster with almost more quarterbacks than receivers and rebuilds in both trenches. One assumes that he might build off of what Franchione left, but it might take him a year to get the pieces in the right places.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 3-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 116 | Final S&P+ Rk: 112
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	at Florida State	12	16-59	L	8%	0%	-18.6	-14.0
12-Sep	Prairie View	N/A	63-24	W	80%	100%	+19.4
19-Sep	Southern Miss	56	50-56	L	37%	17%	-11.2	-9.0
26-Sep	at Houston	26	14-59	L	4%	0%	-40.3	-28.5
10-Oct	at UL-Lafayette	104	27-49	L	5%	0%	-20.8	-18.0
24-Oct	South Alabama	102	36-18	W	58%	89%	+14.7	+14.5
29-Oct	at Georgia Southern	48	13-37	L	10%	0%	-3.4	-3.5
7-Nov	New Mexico State	118	21-31	L	28%	46%	-22.3	-27.0
14-Nov	Georgia State	87	19-41	L	7%	0%	-26.2	-25.0
19-Nov	UL-Monroe	121	16-3	W	70%	98%	+4.8	+6.5
28-Nov	at Idaho	114	31-38	L	25%	33%	-5.2	-4.5
5-Dec	at Arkansas State	71	17-55	L	6%	0%	-23.4	-12.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	27.4	77	41.7	126
Points Per Game	26.9	80	39.2	120

2. San Marcos, sweet San Marcos

TXST had absolutely nothing to offer against high-caliber opponents (average percentile performance against the S&P+ top 50: seven percent), but really, they offered little against any opponent outside of San Marcos.

• Average Percentile Performance (at home): 47% | Record: 3-3 (average score: TXST 34, Opp 29)
• Average Percentile Performance (on the road): 10% | Record: 0-6 (average score: Opp 50, TXST 20)

Granted, there were still plenty of issues at home -- nice performances against Southern Miss and South Alabama were undone by duds against NMSU and Georgia State -- but the Bobcats were at least interesting within the confines of Bobcat Stadium. That was not the case anywhere else; away from home, Texas State was two touchdowns worse on offense and three touchdowns worse on defense.

Such large home-road splits can be the sign of a young, unstable team, but it seemed the main issues for TXST were injuries and pure lack of talent. The Bobcats had a bend-don't-break defense that always broke, and a constantly juggled offensive line struggled to get a push when it needed to.

In theory, injuries could end up helping a defense that gave playing time to a ton of guys in 2015. But now the offense is rebuilding.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.28	54	IsoPPP+	93.7	93
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.6%	77	Succ. Rt. +	97.9	81
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.0	50	Def. FP+	30.0	76
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.4	74	Redzone S&P+	96.7	91
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.4		ACTUAL	21	+5.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	53	93	81	93
RUSHING	43	64	73	52
PASSING	58	99	85	100
Standard Downs		95	81	93
Passing Downs		79	75	78

Q1 Rk	93	1st Down Rk	94
Q2 Rk	58	2nd Down Rk	107
Q3 Rk	120	3rd Down Rk	81
Q4 Rk	89

3. A Bret Elliott offense

Elliott was Withers' offensive coordinator at JMU in 2015 and takes the same job here. Elliott is a quick riser in the coaching ranks. A former Gagliardi Trophy winner as the best player in Division III, he bounced around in the pros until 2011, when he finished his career with the Arena League's Georgia Force. By 2012, he was on Dan Mullen's staff at Mississippi State, and by 2015 he was calling plays for Withers.

In his one year at JMU, he had one hell of a lump of clay to mold. He inherited an offense led by Georgia Tech transfer Vad Lee, and after a couple of years of watching Mississippi State's offense take shape around Dak Prescott, he crafted a devastating, run-heavy offense. JMU ran the ball 61 percent of the time; Lee threw for 2,190 yards and rushed for 814, and two JMU backs combined for 2,012 yards, 23 rushing touchdowns, and even 300 receiving yards.

Elliott's attack was built around spread formations and plenty of QB draws and zone reads. That could suit senior quarterback Tyler Jones well, assuming Jones keeps his starting job.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2016 Year

Rivals

247 Comp.

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Tyler Jones

6'2, 205

Sr.

2 stars (5.3)

0.7876

223

382

2517

14

10

58.4%

16

4.0%

6.0

Connor White

6'5, 200

So.

NR

26

47

235

1

2

55.3%

2

4.1%

4.6

L.G. Williams

5'10, 193

RSFr.

2 stars (5.3)

0.8174

Blake Peterson

6'2, 195

RSFr.

2 stars (5.3)

0.7936

Eddie Printz (Missouri)

6'3, 205

Jr.

3 stars (5.7)

0.8609

Devin Williams

5'11, 180

Fr.

2 stars (5.4)

0.7901

Braeden Kent

6'3, 185

Fr.

2 stars (5.4)

0.7885

4. Battle royal!

A product of Stephenville (Tex.) high school, Jones has held the starting job for most of three seasons and has produced 6,317 passing yards, 1,379 rushing yards, and 60 combined touchdowns. TXST ranked in the Off. S&P+ top 80 each of the last two seasons, and when Jones is on, he's devastating: Against Prairie View and Southern Miss in September, he completed 43 of 60 passes for 588 yards, six touchdowns, and no picks, and rushed for 208 yards and three scores.

Jones suffers just enough brain farts to make him maddening. Outside of the PVAM and USM games, he threw eight touchdown passes to 10 picks. In home losses to NMSU and Georgia State, he threw four interceptions, and in a seven-game span following the loss to Houston, he completed just 52.5 percent of his passes.

Jones' mobility -- he isn't the most efficient of runners, but when he does find open field, he runs a long way -- might fit what Elliott wants to do, and I have to figure he ends up starting for his senior season. But TXST has more than enough candidates should Elliott doubt Jones. Sophomore Connor White was last year's backup, redshirt freshman L.G. Williams is a dynamic dual-threat, Missouri transfer Eddie Printz has plenty of experience in a spread system, and in all, there could be up to six candidates for the backup role.

Competition can be a good thing. Jones is a seasoned hand, but at the very least, he will be pushed.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Robert Lowe	RB					175	915	7	5.2	5.6	38.3%	1	1
Tyler Jones	QB	6'2, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7876	123	713	10	5.8	8.4	36.6%	4	2
Tyler Siudzinski	RB	5'10, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7400	59	290	1	4.9	5.3	35.6%	0	0
Chris Nutall	RB					35	176	4	5.0	3.3	45.7%	1	1
C.J. Best	WR					20	105	1	5.3	4.8	60.0%	2	2
Connor White	QB	6'5, 200	So.	NR	NR	14	78	0	5.6	3.7	42.9%	0	0
Stedman Mayberry	RB	5'10, 189	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793	14	61	0	4.4	4.4	28.6%	0	0
Nick Bingham	RB	5'11, 205	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7833	5	12	1	2.4	3.6	20.0%	0	0
Bralon Hutchison	RB	5'11, 180	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8123
Robert Brown	RB	5'9, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859
Tyler Tutt	RB	5'10, 205	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8124

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
C.J. Best	WR-H					86	58	594	67.4%	21.7%	6.9	59.3%	48.8%	1.21
Jafus Gaines	WR-Z					68	42	518	61.8%	17.2%	7.6	51.5%	45.6%	1.56
Brandon Smith	WR-X					54	33	462	61.1%	13.6%	8.6	55.6%	48.1%	1.64
Ryan Carden	TE					31	25	243	80.6%	7.8%	7.8	67.7%	58.1%	1.10
Demun Mercer	WR-Z	6'2, 197	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8206	31	19	235	61.3%	7.8%	7.6	41.9%	38.7%	1.89
Robert Lowe	RB					31	18	145	58.1%	7.8%	4.7	41.9%	22.6%	2.12
Ryan Garrey	WR-H					27	15	137	55.6%	6.8%	5.1	59.3%	40.7%	1.11
Lawrence White	TE					26	15	169	57.7%	6.6%	6.5	50.0%	53.8%	0.97
Chris Nutall	RB					10	6	86	60.0%	2.5%	8.6	60.0%	40.0%	2.15
Tyler Siudzinski	RB	5'10, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7400	8	4	71	50.0%	2.0%	8.9	75.0%	37.5%	2.33
Stedman Mayberry	RB	5'10, 189	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793	8	5	26	62.5%	2.0%	3.3	50.0%	12.5%	2.36
Chris French	TE	6'4, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8230	5	4	24	80.0%	1.3%	4.8	80.0%	60.0%	0.71
Kwamane Bowens	WR	6'0, 196	Jr.	NR	0.8700	5	1	5	20.0%	1.3%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.00
Nick Pletschette	TE	6'4, 248	Sr.	NR	NR
Gabe Schrade	TE	6'4, 227	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719
P.J. Anderson	WR	6'2, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956
Justin Gamble	WR-X	5'11, 170	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8310
Elijah King	WR	6'2, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8174
Levi Boyd	TE	6'5, 230	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7700

5. An epic rebuild in a unit where epic rebuilds are bad

It appears that experience and returning production matter the most in three units: quarterback, receiver, and defensive back. Texas State has the experience at QB, and the defensive backfield returns four of its top six. But even if Elliott wasn't inclined to lean on the run, the smoking crater that is TXST's receiving corps might convince him that the ground game is good.

Junior Demun Mercer is back. He's a former star recruit who looked great in September before fading -- he caught 13 passes for 194 yards and two touchdowns against Prairie View, Southern Miss, and Houston but just five for 32 yards the rest of the year. He's got decent size and speed, and he could become a useful piece.

Mercer, however, is the only returning wideout who caught more than one ball last year. Elliott's first receiving corps is going to be patched together with Mercer, some career reserves (Kwamane Bowens, P.J. Anderson), a three-star redshirt freshman (Justin Gamble), and a lot of tight ends.

It will be imperative that Elliott find a rhythm with Jones and the ground game. Leading rusher Robert Lowe departs, but Tyler Siudzinski is back after a decent junior campaign, and sophomore Stedman Mayberry is, among other things, the only returnee besides Mercer to catch even five passes in 2015. Three-star redshirt freshman Bralon Hutchison could be ready to make a contribution, as could either of two incoming freshmen (Robert Brown, Tyler Tutt).

And while three departing seniors up front combined for 71 career starts, TXST does return five linemen with starting experience thanks to last year's shuffling. The Bobcat line kept defenders out of the backfield and has excellent size for the Sun Belt level: The 12 linemen listed below average 6'5, 303.

Elliott appeared to already favor the ground game, but he has no choice here -- Jones is going to struggle to find a rapport with a brand new set of pass catchers.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	95.9	2.76	3.12	38.9%	62.8%	19.1%	102.2	3.8%	6.7%
Rank	93	85	76	66	85	59	59	40	52

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Adrian Bellard	LT					12	36
Ryan Melton	RT	6'5, 325	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926	12	30
Zach Crawford	RG					2	19
Brandon Sarabia	LG					12	16
Felix Romero	RG	6'4, 303	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR	5	13
Guiliano Cattaneo	C	6'4, 310	Jr.	NR	NR	9	9
Kian Schoenborn	RG	6'4, 325	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7383	5	5
Tryston Mizerak	C	6'6, 290	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8148	2	2
Jackson Hoskins	C					1	1
Hayden Lambert	LT	6'5, 290	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR	0	0
Kanon Mackey	LG	6'4, 302	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7906	0	0
Will Copa	RT	6'8, 315	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752	0	0
Willie Williams	C	6'3, 285	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926
Jacob Rowland	OL	6'5, 305	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826
Aaron Brewer	OL	6'3, 295	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7706
Josiah Washington	OL	6'6, 290	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8068

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.32	93	IsoPPP+	83.4	119
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	49.6%	125	Succ. Rt. +	78.9	128
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.8	95	Off. FP+	28.0	101
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.0	116	Redzone S&P+	77.9	128
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.2		ACTUAL	14.0	-1.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	124	123	128	119
RUSHING	123	118	124	108
PASSING	109	126	128	124
Standard Downs		121	127	114
Passing Downs		127	120	126

Q1 Rk	126	1st Down Rk	117
Q2 Rk	111	2nd Down Rk	110
Q3 Rk	123	3rd Down Rk	114
Q4 Rk	124

6. A Randall McCray defense

Withers didn't bring his JMU defensive coordinator along to Texas State; he found another FCS coordinator instead. Randall McCray comes from Gardner-Webb, where, despite no offensive help, his 2015 Bulldogs allowed just 20 points per game, 4.9 yards per play, and a 27 percent third-down conversion rate.

McCray's GWU defense had a havoc rate of 18.9 percent, which would have ranked in the top 20 at the FBS level. The Bulldogs attacked the run (3.9 yards per carry allowed) and lived off of third-and-longs.

This is, in every way, a contrast to TXST's defense, which was one of the most passive in the country. The Bobcats ranked 128th (out of 128 teams) in Success Rate+, 128th in Redzone S&P+, 128th in passes defensed, 127th in havoc rate, and 119th in tackles for loss. In the opponent-adjusted categories above, TXST's "best" ranking was 101st, and that was in the field position category that incorporates aspects of a good special teams unit.

Texas State was young and banged up, playing a ton of personnel and unearthing few play-makers. Thanks to Gardner-Webb's offense, McCray knows what it's like to play handcuffed.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	83.5	3.39	3.68	42.8%	64.2%	14.4%	62.6	4.5%	3.6%
Rank	124	120	110	114	54	120	118	85	121

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Karee Berry	DE/OLB	6'3, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7200	12	29.5	4.1%	5.5	3.0	0	1	1	0
Dallas McClarty	DT	5'11, 275	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7900	10	28.0	3.9%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Marcus Dallas, Jr.	DE					12	24.5	3.4%	4.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Mershad Dillon	DT					11	16.5	2.3%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dondre Elvoid	DT					11	13.5	1.9%	3.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Rusmin Nikocevic	DE					12	12.0	1.7%	5.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Jeff Banks	DE	6'5, 212	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7533	12	9.5	1.3%	4.0	0.0	0	1	1	0
Herbert Gonzales	DT					11	9.0	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Roosevelt Pearson	DE	6'5, 255	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8361	7	8.0	1.1%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Cedric Gambrell	DT	6'6, 255	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926	4	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darius Hood	DT	6'0, 275	Sr.	NR	NR	4	3.0	0.4%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Landon Beck	DE	6'4, 245	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726	4	2.0	0.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kendall Beal	DE	6'3, 240	Sr.	NR	NR	7	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
John Lilly	DL	6'0, 278	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793
Dean Taylor	DE	6'5, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8100
Ramon Readus	DT	6'2, 270	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7974

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Trey McGowan	OLB					12	61.5	8.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Jerrid Jeter-Gilmon	MLB					9	54.0	7.6%	4.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Ishmael Davis	MLB	6'3, 223	So.	NR	NR	12	22.5	3.2%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Stephen Smith	DE/OLB	6'3, 221	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7800	10	21.5	3.0%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Darnell Dailey, Jr.	LB	6'1, 230	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7833	6	7.5	1.1%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Teron Fitzgerald	OLB	6'4, 227	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7585	9	5.5	0.8%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Bo Anderson	LB	6'1, 220	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8181	3	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kerry Walker Jr.	LB	6'3, 225	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859
Jordan Mittie	LB	6'3, 235	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7756
Gabe Loyd	LB	6'2, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8006
Hal Vinson	OLB	6'1, 217	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115

7. Changing one of the most passive defenses in the country

TXST had 11 linemen and five linebackers who averaged at least 0.75 tackles per game in 2015; only six of these 16 played in all 12 games. The depth chart had few constants, and while the Bobcats were solid in short-yardage, there was no disruptive presence.

(There were also some real-life issues to worry about: The Bobcats had to deal with the deteriorating health of teammate and tackle Will Trevillion, who tragically passed away in January.)

If the top guys remain in the lineup, it appears there might be some potential at the defensive end position, where Karee Berry, Jeff Banks, and Roosevelt Pearson combined for 11.5 tackles for loss.

There's a void of experience up the middle, though. Undersized tackle Dallas McClarty is back, but the next three leading tackles are not. And none of last year's returnees are listed heavier than 275 (though that could change with an offseason in the weight room). At linebacker, Trey McGowan and Jerrid Jeter-Gilmon are both gone as well, leaving sophomore Ishmael Davis and some senior bit players. Newcomers -- JUCO linebacker Gabe Loyd and a host of freshmen and redshirt freshmen -- could be asked to contribute immediately. That doesn't usually go well.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Damani Alexcee	SS	6'2, 192	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	12	70.0	9.8%	3	2	0	3	1	0
David Mims II	CB					12	53.5	7.5%	4	1	0	5	0	0
Aaron Shaw	FS					12	49.5	6.9%	1	1	1	2	1	0
Brandon McDowell	CB	5'10, 183	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7894	12	38.5	5.4%	2.5	0	0	6	0	0
Dila Rosemond	NB	5'10, 175	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8514	10	25.5	3.6%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Stephan Johnson	SS	6'0, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752	12	21.0	2.9%	0.5	0	2	1	0	0
Donta Clanton	CB					10	19.0	2.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Javante O'Roy	NB	6'0, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7652	11	18.5	2.6%	1.5	0	0	1	1	0
Camyron Brown	FS	5'11, 199	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719	12	15.5	2.2%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Easy Anyama	S	6'3, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7906	7	15.0	2.1%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
Demetrius Woodard	NB					9	9.5	1.3%	1.5	1	0	1	0	0
Clarence Guidry III	CB	5'11, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7644	9	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Andrew Aneke	CB	6'0, 170	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7744	5	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Quin Tiggs	CB	6'0, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752
Jordan Eastling	CB	5'10, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8300

8. Potential play-makers in the secondary

Thanks to one of the least effective pass rushes in the country, the Texas State secondary had a pretty tough job in 2015. The result wasn't pretty: Opponents completed 65 percent of their passes with 28 touchdowns to just three -- THREE! -- interceptions. Only UCF and Rice allowed a passer rating worse than the 165.3 that Texas State allowed.

That sets the bar low for 2016, but with any disruptive help up front, there do appear to be some play-makers in the back. Safety Damani Alexcee had three tackles for loss and defensed three passes, while corner Brandon McDowell had 2.5 and six, respectively. These aren't amazing numbers, but with help from the front seven, they could produce more.

At the very least, the secondary features plenty of upperclassmen. Beyond Alexcee and McDowell, you've got senior Jeavnte O'Roy and juniors Dila Rosemond, Stephan Johnson, and Easy Anyama, all of whom recorded at least 15 tackles on a constantly shuffled depth chart. JUCO transfer Quin Tiggs and three-star freshman Jordan Eastling join the mix as well.

The ceiling isn't high for this defense, but hey, things almost literally cannot get worse.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Lumi Kaba	6'2, 182	Sr.	65	44.3	4	16	16	49.2%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Lumi Kaba	6'2, 182	Sr.	62	63.5	43	1	69.4%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Lumi Kaba	6'2, 182	Sr.	26-27	6-11	54.5%	4-7	57.1%
James Sherman	5'10, 180	So.	6-10	1-1	100.0%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Brandon Smith	KR			27	23.1	1
Jafus Gaines	KR			8	15.1	0
Brandon McDowell	PR	5'10, 183	Jr.	14	13.1	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	107
Field Goal Efficiency	112
Punt Return Success Rate	32
Kick Return Success Rate	94
Punt Success Rate	70
Kickoff Success Rate	39

9. Kaba's got a cannon

In punt returner Brandon McDowell and all-the-kicks guy Lumi Kaba, TXST has a couple of solid weapons in special teams. More than two-thirds of Kaba's kickoffs were touchbacks, and he averaged over 44 yards per punt. Of course, TXST still ranked just 107th in Special Teams S&P+, in part because Kaba can't always control his cannon. Field goals are a huge portion of the Special Teams S&P+ formula, and while Kaba made 57 percent of his kicks over 40 yards, he also made a dreadful 55 percent of shorter kicks.

With a little bit more consistency and a new kick returner, special teams could become a strength for the Bobcats.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Ohio	95	-5.4	38%
17-Sep	at Arkansas	17	-32.8	3%
24-Sep	Houston	53	-14.9	19%
1-Oct	Incarnate Word	NR	19.2	87%
TBD	Arkansas State	89	-6.9	34%
TBD	Idaho	108	0.6	51%
TBD	Troy	103	-2.1	45%
TBD	UL-Lafayette	106	0.0	50%
TBD	at Appalachian State	59	-21.2	11%
TBD	at Georgia State	105	-8.3	31%
TBD	at New Mexico State	117	-9.2	30%
TBD	at UL-Monroe	125	-1.1	47%
Projected wins: 4.5

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-32.6% (118)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	109 / 92
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-7 / -0.2
2015 TO Luck/Game	-2.8
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	57% (52%, 62%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	3.8 (-0.8)

10. I honestly have no idea what this team is capable of

As with almost everybody in the Sun Belt, a little bit of improvement could go a long way. The Bobcats are projected just 120th in S&P+ thanks to the bad defense and massive turnover in the receiving corps. If Withers is able to come in and press the right buttons immediately, as he did at JMU, then with nine opponents projected 89th or worse (including six of seven home opponents), there are wins on the table.

It's hard to predict that, though. The run game could be interesting, and the pass defense has almost no choice but to improve, but between the aforementioned receiver turnover and a front seven that might be dramatically undersized, it's hard to imagine Texas State improving too much right off the bat.

Withers was a strong hire on paper, and he didn't inherit a bare cupboard. But in 2016, Texas State will be inexperienced in the wrong places, and the roster will be a little bit too thin in certain areas. Expectations will rise after a Year 0 experience in 2016, but I wouldn't expect too much just yet.