Idaho might go back to FCS, but the Vandals have a shot at a 2016 bowl run first

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1. "Anger is in my head."

I have a 4-year old daughter. She has mastered the art of hysterics. She would eat mac and cheese for every meal if we let her, wore an Elsa costume for Halloween and is a slave to Pixar's emotional string-pulling.

Whatever characters Pixar creates for her to adore, she adores. And when a new movie comes out, she watches it 400 times. We've dived into The Good Dinosaur, but we went more than a few rounds with Inside Out last year.

Her months-long obsession with that movie means, as she has gotten older and slightly more in touch with her own emotions, she broadcasts them through the Inside Out prism.

"I'm sad." "Why?" "Because sadness is in my head."

"I'm angry." "Why?" "Because anger is in my head!"

Anger has definitely been in the head of Idaho. Their fans: angry. Their coach: angry. Their information department, evidently: angry.

Feistiness is not a flaw in the Idaho system; it's a feature. This has long been a program with a chip on its shoulder the size of the Kibbie Dome. Idaho belonged to the same Pacific Coast Conference as USC, Stanford and much of the current-day Pac-12 until the PCC dissolved in the late-1950s and the Vandals weren't invited into the new conference. After 16 seasons of independence, with only a single winning record to show for it, the school dropped down a level.

In 1996, Idaho returned to what is now FBS, moving back up with in-state rival Boise State. And while the Vandals continued to scrape by, the Broncos thrived more than any upstart mid-major should. Not only did life remain hard in Moscow, the program was constantly reminded of its perfect cousin down the road.

After bouncing from the Big West to the Sun Belt, Idaho found a home in the WAC in 2005. But when it dissolved seven seasons later, Idaho and NMSU were able to live as independents because there was hope in a Sun Belt life raft. That raft is now deflating.

The Sun Belt Conference announced on Tuesday that the agreement with New Mexico State and Idaho as football-only affiliate members will be allowed to run out following the 2017 season, according to league comissioner Karl Benson and Texas State President Denise Trauth.

The decision will reduce the conference’s football members to 10 and should reduce travel costs and increase class time for student-athletes.

I'm a laid back hippie when it comes to FBS membership -- the more the merrier, man -- and on principle I was hoping the Sun Belt would decide to keep both despite geographic dissonance and a lack of recent (or historical) success.

Without the Sun Belt, there's a good chance that life will repeat itself and Idaho will eschew independence for the FCS' Big Sky. And honestly, that's probably where the Vandals belong. Before their second FBS sojourn, they were a steady FCS power, reaching the playoffs eight times in nine years from 1985-93. As shaky as they were in 2015, they would have been in the Big Sky top five, according to the Sagarin rankings.

I like to think FBS wouldn't be the same without its angry cousin. And I kind of want to see what a fiery guy like Paul Petrino* can eventually build. But now it's time to preview what might be one of Idaho's final FBS campaigns.

After bottoming out at 1-11 and No. 118 in S&P+ in 2013 -- Petrino's debut -- the Vandals first improved their ratings (No. 109 in 2014), then improved their record (4-8 in 2015).

Idaho technically wasn't a whole lot better. The Vandals ranked 109th in S&P+ both years, and their overall scoring margin was basically the same (minus-12.3 points per game in 2014, minus-11.8 last fall). The offense was legitimately sound in 2015, but the defense was a horror show.

Still, Idaho actually won some games. That feels good, and it helped to briefly alleviate some of the particularly bad feelings. It's hard to imagine any good feelings remain, however.

* Petrino and the Idaho athletic department are clearly feisty, but they also have an obvious softer side. His handling of Idaho signee and recent cancer victim Jace Malek was pure class in an awful situation.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 1-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 114 | Final S&P+ Rk: 109
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
3-Sep	Ohio	69	28-45	L	12%	1%	-12.7	-10.0
12-Sep	at USC	17	9-59	L	1%	0%	-11.2	-7.0
19-Sep	Wofford	N/A	41-38	W	32%	58%	-2.2
26-Sep	Georgia Southern	48	20-44	L	18%	1%	-9.8	-8.0
3-Oct	at Arkansas State	71	35-49	L	17%	3%	-0.2	+6.0
17-Oct	at Troy	90	19-16	W	48%	57%	+6.4	+3.0
24-Oct	UL-Monroe	121	27-13	W	54%	88%	+11.1	+12.5
31-Oct	at New Mexico State	118	48-55	L	24%	35%	-10.3	-12.5
7-Nov	at South Alabama	102	45-52	L	32%	46%	-2.1	+3.0
14-Nov	Appalachian State	42	20-47	L	25%	3%	-7.5	-9.5
21-Nov	at Auburn	33	34-56	L	16%	4%	-3.2	+12.0
28-Nov	Texas State	116	38-31	W	44%	67%	+5.2	+4.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	28.7	69	42.2	127
Points Per Game	30.3	57	42.1	123

2. No friend of September

In 2014, Idaho's average percentile performance was 16 percent in the first four games and 34 percent in the next seven. In 2015, it was almost exactly the same.

• First 5 games
  Average percentile performance: 16% | Record: 1-4 | Performance vs. S&P+ Projection: -7.2 PPG
• Last 7 games
  Average percentile performance: 35% | Record: 3-4 | Performance vs. S&P+ Projection: -0.1 PPG

The difference in 2015 was that the Vandals both played in a few more close games and won them. Thanks to a pretty potent offense, they went 3-2 in games decided by one possession -- after winning just three games, period, from 2012-14.

Since the start of 2011, Idaho is 3-19 before Oct. 1 with wins over two FCS opponents and a 2-10 Temple in 2013. They have been routinely rocked by power conference programs in September -- Texas A&M in 2011, LSU and North Carolina in 2012, Washington State in 2013, USC in 2015 (average score: 53-6) -- but they've also struggled against mid-major opposition. Any chance of starting a season with a strong statement has mostly gone out the window.

This coming September, they take on trips to Washington and Washington State, both coming off of strong seasons. If there's any hope for a miracle run to 6-6, it will require a win at UNLV on Sept. 24.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.16	115	IsoPPP+	97.7	78
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.1%	21	Succ. Rt. +	107.6	35
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.3	101	Def. FP+	32.0	109
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.7	49	Redzone S&P+	102.8	65
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.4		ACTUAL	23	+4.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	44	60	35	78
RUSHING	98	68	25	100
PASSING	27	68	61	68
Standard Downs		71	32	96
Passing Downs		45	46	49

Q1 Rk	70	1st Down Rk	76
Q2 Rk	57	2nd Down Rk	93
Q3 Rk	82	3rd Down Rk	89
Q4 Rk	71

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Matt Linehan	6'3, 214	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7533	248	391	2992	16	11	63.4%	24	5.8%	6.8
Jake Luton	6'6, 220	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7783	49	78	383	1	4	62.8%	5	6.0%	4.3
Gunnar Amos	6'1, 191	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7533
Mason Petrino	5'11, 168	Fr.	NR	NR

3. An offense worth watching

Idaho still wasn't very good, but that wasn't the offense's fault. Idaho scored 364 points in 2015, its highest total since scoring 425 during 2009's bowl run. The Vandals were very efficient running, and quarterback Matt Linehan was able to make things happen on passing downs. He was a bit of a risk taker, threw 11 picks and took a few too many sacks, but this was the most promising Idaho offense in years.

Linehan is only now a junior. He's already thrown for nearly 5,500 yards and 27 touchdowns. In wideout Callen Hightower and tight ends Deon Watson and Buck Cowan, he returns three players who caught 147 passes and averaged a strong 8.7 yards per target.

Petrino and coordinator Kris Cinkovich crafted a QB-friendly system with lots of early-down passes and passing downs rushes. Idaho was pretty good at catching back up to the chains when it fell behind. But the Vandals will still probably miss running back Elijhaa Penny, who was far more efficient than counterpart Aaron Duckworth. Penny was in no way a big-play threat, but he was consistently able to gain between four and six yards.

Maybe Linehan is ready to take on more. Or maybe Duckworth, sophomore Isaiah Saunders, redshirt freshman Denzal Brantley or freshman Dylan Thigpen is ready for a star turn. But however it happens, Idaho will need to make sure it is either falling into fewer passing downs or is equally good at getting out of them.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Elijhaa Penny	RB					247	1163	10	4.7	3.3	39.3%	2	1
Aaron Duckworth	RB	5'8, 201	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8006	71	249	3	3.5	4.0	28.2%	2	0
Matt Linehan	QB	6'3, 214	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7533	67	388	5	5.8	3.7	56.7%	5	3
Jake Luton	QB	6'6, 220	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7783	22	101	5	4.6	3.3	36.4%	0	0
Isaiah Saunders	RB	5'10, 228	So.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	13	40	0	3.1	0.8	15.4%	0	0
Denzal Brantley	RB	6'0, 213	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7974
Josh Herman	FB	6'1, 251	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7544
Dylan Thigpen	RB	5'11, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8048

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Dezmon Epps	WR-W					85	61	757	71.8%	19.4%	8.9	76.5%	57.6%	1.44
Callen Hightower	WR-Z	5'10, 177	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	83	57	749	68.7%	18.9%	9.0	55.4%	48.2%	1.69
Deon Watson	TE	6'4, 222	Sr.	NR	0.7700	72	42	551	58.3%	16.4%	7.7	66.7%	51.4%	1.42
Trent 'Buck' Cowan	TE	6'3, 224	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7500	67	48	624	71.6%	15.3%	9.3	56.7%	56.7%	1.54
Elijhaa Penny	RB					37	27	239	73.0%	8.4%	6.5	54.1%	43.2%	1.43
Reuben Mwehla	WR-X	5'10, 187	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685	23	19	150	82.6%	5.2%	6.5	78.3%	56.5%	1.02
Jante Boston	WR-W	5'10, 165	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752	23	15	132	65.2%	5.2%	5.7	60.9%	52.2%	1.03
Jacob Sannon	WR-Z	5'11, 191	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	15	11	86	73.3%	3.4%	5.7	66.7%	53.3%	0.90
David Ungerer (2014)	WR-W	5'8, 165	So.	NR	0.7000	15	8	96	53.3%	3.7%	6.4	53.3%	N/A	N/A
Jake Manley	FB					8	5	34	62.5%	1.8%	4.3	100.0%	50.0%	0.68
Kareem Coles	WR-Z					7	3	19	42.9%	1.6%	2.7	28.6%	14.3%	1.56
Aaron Duckworth	RB	5'8, 201	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8006	5	3	19	60.0%	1.1%	3.8	60.0%	20.0%	1.39
Isaiah Saunders	RB	5'10, 228	So.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	5	2	2	40.0%	1.1%	0.4	40.0%	0.0%	0.00
Calvary Pugh	WR-W	5'9, 172	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7711	2	2	12	100.0%	0.5%	6.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.48
Khalin Smith	TE	6'5, 245	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7611
Michael Garner	WR	5'11, 170	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8035
Alfonso Onunwor	WR	6'1, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7633
J.J. Wills	WR	6'1, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8130

4. A few more big plays wouldn't hurt

Dezmon Epps was suspended, reinstated and then kicked off the team after a series of off-the-field issues in 2015, from accusations of shoplifting merchandise from the campus bookstore to a domestic assault accusation. In his absence, Callen Hightower stepped up. The soon-to-be senior caught 38 passes for 559 yards over the last five games. That's both an average of 14.7 yards per catch and a 1,300-yard pace when projected over a full 12 games.

In theory, with Hightower producing downfield and Watson and Cowan doing damage over the middle, Idaho's got the weapons to cover much of the field. But with so little big-play potential in the run game, finding another vertical threat in the passing game would work wonders. And while wideouts Reuben Mwehla, Jante Boston and Jacob Sannon combined to catch 45 passes last year, they averaged just 8.2 yards per catch.

Perhaps a newcomer -- JUCO transfer Alfonso Onunwor? Redshirt freshman Michael Garner? True freshman J.J. Wills? -- can prove threatening. If not, it might be difficult for Idaho to match last season's output, even if it doesn't regress very far.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	107.7	3.06	3.76	39.5%	66.0%	15.2%	100.4	5.4%	5.9%
Rank	36	38	20	59	65	6	63	75	36

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Dallas Sandberg	LG					12	34
Steven Matlock	C	6'2, 270	Sr.	NR	NR	12	28
Mason Woods	RG	6'9, 336	Sr.	NR	0.7000	12	27
Jordan Rose	RT	6'6, 322	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7800	12	19
Calvin White	LT	6'5, 298	Sr.	NR	NR	9	9
Jeff Travillion	LT					3	3
Kato Fawkes	LG	6'4, 303	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7652	0	0
Patrick Johnson	C	6'2, 291	So.	NR	NR	0	0
Andrew Erbes	OL	6'2, 313	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7900	0	0
Darius Peterson	OL	6'6, 302	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7533	0	0
Noah Johnson	OL	6'4, 280	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7844

5. Anger works well up front

You can do worse than go into a game with an angry offensive line. Idaho's combined size, experience and effectiveness should do so again. Four returning starters have combined for 83 career starts and the eight non-freshmen listed above average 6'5, 304. That's more than big enough.

Idaho was quite good at keeping defenders out of the backfield, ranking sixth in stuff rate and 36th in passing downs pass rate. I have to figure this is again a strength.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.34	104	IsoPPP+	81.8	121
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	47.8%	118	Succ. Rt. +	83.6	123
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.6	100	Off. FP+	27.6	106
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.3	124	Redzone S&P+	82.8	125
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.7		ACTUAL	17.0	+0.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	118	122	123	121
RUSHING	126	126	111	127
PASSING	53	103	122	90
Standard Downs		125	123	125
Passing Downs		99	98	98

Q1 Rk	95	1st Down Rk	126
Q2 Rk	121	2nd Down Rk	127
Q3 Rk	127	3rd Down Rk	126
Q4 Rk	128

6. No hope on D

Idaho was more than capable of keeping up in shootouts in 2015 because of its offense. The Vandals found themselves in quite a few shootouts because of their defense. Five times, they lost despite scoring at least 28 points.

Whatever you want to point to is probably correct.

Lack of talent? Under two different head coaches, the Vandals have averaged a No. 117 ranking over the last four years, so ranking 127th isn't that far from the norm.

Lack of play-makers? Idaho's havoc rate of 12.8 percent was 118th in FBS.

Injuries? Oh dear, yes. The Vandals had nine linemen who averaged at least 0.8 tackles per game -- two played in all 12 games. They had six such defensive backs -- three played in all 12 games and 2014 leader Jayshawn Jordan lasted only three.

So this was a limited defense that got ripped up by injury and attrition in the front and the back. That's a bad combination.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	90.2	3.23	3.06	43.6%	75.0%	17.9%	66.8	2.9%	5.9%
Rank	106	112	49	120	109	92	116	112	91

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Quinton Bradley	DE					12	46.0	6.6%	15.0	5.0	0	6	1	0
Tueni Lupeamanu	DT	6'1, 305	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7700	11	30.5	4.4%	1.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Ryan Edwards	NT					10	24.5	3.5%	3.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Kevin Shelton	BUCK	6'3, 265	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	10	20.5	2.9%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Khalin Smith	BUCK	6'5, 245	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7611	9	18.0	2.6%	2.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
Kaylyn Ayers	DE					11	18.0	2.6%	5.0	1.0	0	0	2	0
Glen Antoine	NT	6'4, 325	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719	12	13.0	1.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kevin White	DE	6'4, 263	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7511	5	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Garren Jackson	DE	6'3, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7578	5	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Zach Cable	DT	6'3, 265	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	3	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Arie Anderson	DT	6'1, 326	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7400
Aikeem Coleman	DE	6'3, 284	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7400
Wayne Eades II	DE	6'0, 256	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8000
Derek Watson	DE	6'4, 231	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593

7. Injuries lead to depth

You can always spin injuries into a positive in the future. Granted, of the four players in the front seven who recorded more than three tackles for loss last year, three are gone, including ace end Quinton Bradley. Still, the Vandals return four linemen, three linebackers and seven defensive backs who have seen extensive playing time. Plus, Petrino added a new load of JUCOs to supplement the front seven.

In the stats above, you can sort of see what Idaho wanted to do: attack the run on standard downs and the pass on passing downs. In rare passing downs, they were able to occasionally produce. But they barely forced any passing downs because opponents knew they could run at will.

Be it because of healthy veterans or impact newcomers, the run defense simply has to become less of a sieve for Idaho to be able to institute any sort of general strategy. There are more options this year than there were last year. We'll find out if there's also competence.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kaden Elliss	WILL	6'3, 216	So.	NR	NR	12	70.0	10.0%	7.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Broc Westlake	MIKE					12	68.0	9.7%	3.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Chris Edwards	SAM					12	55.5	7.9%	8.0	1.0	1	3	1	1
Marc Millan	SAM					12	54.5	7.8%	3.0	0.0	2	0	2	0
Ed Hall	MIKE	6'0, 209	So.	NR	NR	12	25.0	3.6%	1.5	0.0	0	0	2	0
Tony Lashley (2014)	MIKE	6'1, 236	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7667	7	17.5	2.7%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Leonard Hazewood	LB	6'4, 241	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7594
Jason Sylva	LB	6'3, 243	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8089
Charles Akanno	LB	6'1, 250	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7974

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jayshawn Jordan (2014)	CB	5'9, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7500	11	52.0	8.1%	3	0	2	3	1	0
Jordan Grabski	FS	6'0, 189	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	8	43.0	6.1%	2	0	0	0	0	0
Kendrick Trotter	CB	5'11, 176	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7533	12	39.0	5.6%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Russell Siavii	SS	6'2, 208	Sr.	NR	0.7000	12	39.0	5.6%	1	0	2	2	0	1
Dorian Clark	CB	6'0, 182	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7583	11	36.5	5.2%	3	1	1	5	0	0
Armond Hawkins	FS	5'10, 209	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7933	12	33.0	4.7%	4	1	0	0	1	0
D.J. Hampton	CB	5'11, 188	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7544	10	17.5	2.5%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Desmond Banks	S	6'3, 206	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	11	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Isaiah Taylor	CB					1	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Vaughn Daggs	CB	6'0, 156	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7683

8. Just give the secondary a chance

Idaho returns all of last year's contributors in the secondary and welcomes Jayshawn Jordan back into the fold. Experience in the defensive backfield is vital and Idaho has it. Plus, there appears to be some play-making potential in here. Jordan had three tackles for loss and five passes defensed in 2014. Corner Dorian Clark had three and six, respectively, last year, and safety Armond Hawkins' four tackles for loss were more than that of all but two linemen.

If the front seven can offer ANYTHING against the run, the secondary could thrive. There are some potential stars in here. But until we see that the run defense is sturdier, and until we see that the pass rush won't fall apart without Bradley and fellow departee Kaylyn Ayers, we won't know if the secondary will have the chance to prove itself.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Austin Rehkow	6'3, 208	Sr.	50	45.9	3	11	9	40.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Austin Rehkow	6'3, 208	Sr.	73	61.9	41	5	56.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Austin Rehkow	6'3, 208	Sr.	39-40	15-17	88.2%	8-10	80.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Aaron Duckworth	KR	5'8, 201	Jr.	14	17.9	0
Jayshawn Jordan	KR			9	19.0	0
Rueben Mwehla	PR	5'10, 187	Jr.	7	2.4	0
Dezmon Epps	PR			3	1.3	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	21
Field Goal Efficiency	32
Punt Return Success Rate	77
Kick Return Success Rate	117
Punt Success Rate	8
Kickoff Success Rate	58

9. Rehkow is a stud

Idaho was better at punts than kickoffs and better at punt returns than kick returns. That's not optimal considering Idaho games tended to feature quite a few kickoffs, but still, between punting and place-kicking (and the kickoffs that reached the end zone), Austin Rehkow got plenty of chances to shine in special teams last year. He made 23 of 27 field goals, booted 56 percent of his kickoffs for touchbacks and averaged nearly 46 yards per punt.

Coverage and returns were iffy at best, but Rehkow alone gave Idaho a good special teams unit and should again this fall.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
1-Sep	Montana State	NR	11.9	75%
10-Sep	at Washington	10	-31.6	3%
17-Sep	at Washington State	48	-19.6	13%
24-Sep	at UNLV	114	-2.1	45%
TBD	Georgia State	105	1.5	53%
TBD	New Mexico State	117	5.7	63%
TBD	South Alabama	115	5.1	62%
TBD	Troy	103	0.8	52%
TBD	at Appalachian State	59	-18.3	14%
TBD	at Texas State	120	-0.6	49%
TBD	at UL-Monroe	125	1.7	54%
TBD	at UL-Lafayette	106	-4.2	40%
Projected wins: 5.2

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-40.9% (124)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	128 / 128
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-6 / -1.7
2015 TO Luck/Game	-1.9
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	79% (82%, 76%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	3.6 (0.4)

10. We'll always have the 2009 Humanitarian Bowl

After averaging just 2.3 wins per season from 2001-08, Idaho came out of nowhere to go 8-5 in 2009, taking home a thrilling, last-second Humanitarian Bowl win.

Gruff-voiced head coach Robb Akey had a star turn that season, but he couldn't keep it up. Idaho fell to 6-7 in 2010 and has gone just 9-50 since 2011.

If we're approaching the end of Idaho's FBS existence, it would be fun if the Vandals were able to put together one more run at bowl eligibility.

The schedule has plenty of potential wins. If Idaho can conjure some Kibbie Dome magic and play well at home -- all five home games come against teams projected 103rd or worse -- they might need as few as one or two road victories to reach six wins. The trip to UNLV is one good opportunity, and visits to Texas State and both Louisiana schools offer three more.

This is doable, but the defense has to offer something, anything. With a simply bad defense in 2015, the Vandals maybe win six games and have a better case for Sun Belt retention.

If a healthy defense can complement a downright solid offense enough to turn a couple more shootouts, Idaho might be able to find a few more moments of happiness at the FBS level. It's not something you would want to bet on, but I wouldn't mind seeing a few smiles on the face of FBS' angry cousin before he leaves town.