Appalachian State is making this FBS thing look awfully easy

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1. Flipping the switch

It appeared Appalachian State had gotten the timing wrong as well. The Mountaineers were the heaviest of FCS heavyweights and waited until the moment the Moore era faded to decide. They had their worst FCS season in ages in 2013, then moved looked horrific for half of 2014. They gave up 52 points to Michigan. They lost to Southern Miss. They lost their first two Sun Belt games (to first- and second-year FBS teams) by a combined 81-35. They gave up 55 points and lost to Liberty.

The Mountaineers began 1-5, grading out as one of the worst teams in FBS. They had gotten everything wrong.

And then it all went right. [...]

A year ago, I thought ASU was a couple of years from respectability, even within the Sun Belt, and the results of the six games more than reinforced that line of thinking. Now ASU is one of the safer ones in the Sun Belt.

-- The big 2015 Appalachian State football guide

It kept going right for Appalachian State in 2015. Boy, did it ever. In last year's preview, I said that every game but Clemson was winnable for the Mountaineers, and they damn near won every game but Clemson. The Mountaineers went 11-2, spent a good portion of the season ranked in the S&P+ top 25, and finished ranked in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive S&P+. They played Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt's showcase game, and in front of 24,121 at Kidd Brewer Stadium, they ran away from the Eagles, 31-13.

Perhaps best of all, ASU also left room for improvement. The Mountaineers faded a little bit over the second half of the season and couldn't stop a streaking Arkansas State team in Boone two weeks after the Georgia Southern game. So they 'only' won 11 games and 'only' finished 43rd in S&P+.

Since starting 2014 with a 1-5 record, Appalachian State is 17-2. That's not the way this is supposed to work. You're supposed to struggle for a while. You're supposed to rise to FBS with built-in depth issues that inevitably trip you up for a little while. You're not supposed to immediately become nearly the class of your league, especially when you had briefly begun to founder at the FCS level before your jump. But that's what Appalachian State has done.

After averaging 12 wins per year between 2005 and 2010, the Mountaineers faded. They went 8-4 in 2011 and 2012, then went 4-8 in Scott Satterfield's first season succeeding legendary Jerry Moore. But the stumble was more brief than anybody could have believed, and Satterfield has this program rolling.

With Arkansas State rebuilding its passing game and Georgia Southern perhaps undergoing a shift in offensive identity, Appalachian State might be the safest bet in the Sun Belt in 2016. Things will probably keep coming up ASU this fall.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-2 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 42 | Final S&P+ Rk: 43
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	Howard	N/A	49-0	W	79%	100%	+25.5
12-Sep	at Clemson	2	10-41	L	8%	0%	-6.3	-13.0
26-Sep	at Old Dominion	117	49-0	W	89%	100%	+49.2	+41.5
3-Oct	Wyoming	115	31-13	W	58%	97%	-6.7	+13.0
10-Oct	at Georgia State	87	37-3	W	93%	100%	+22.5	+18.0
17-Oct	at UL-Monroe	121	59-14	W	83%	100%	+30.7	+33.5
22-Oct	Georgia Southern	48	31-13	W	87%	99%	+9.5	+11.5
31-Oct	Troy	90	44-41	W	30%	40%	-23.7	-21.0
5-Nov	Arkansas State	71	27-40	L	29%	26%	-29.2	-23.5
14-Nov	at Idaho	114	47-20	W	64%	97%	+7.5	+9.5
28-Nov	UL-Lafayette	104	28-7	W	82%	100%	+0.4	-2.5
5-Dec	at South Alabama	102	34-27	W	65%	98%	-10.6	-11.0
19-Dec	vs. Ohio	69	31-29	W	65%	90%	-4.5	-5.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	32.3	46	24.6	41
Points Per Game	36.7	23	19.1	14

2. A two-week funk

Seven games into the season, you could have made the case that Appalachian State was the best college football team in the Group of Five. The AAC was getting most of the attention -- Memphis, Houston, and Temple were all ranked -- and Toledo's upset of Arkansas had the Rockets ranked as well. But the 6-1 Mountaineers had lost only to undefeated future Playoff finalist Clemson (a better team than Memphis, Houston, Temple, or Toledo had played to date) and had rocked six other opponents, most recently Georgia Southern.

Unfortunately, there was a post-Southern letdown. State nearly lost to Troy, then got run out of its own building by Arkansas State. The Mountaineers rebounded but couldn't quite maintain their form from the first half of the year.

• First 7 games:
  Average Percentile Performance: 71% | Average score: ASU 38, Opp 12 | Average performance vs. S&P+ projection: +17.8 PPG
• Last 6 games:
  Average Percentile Performance: 56% | Average score: ASU 35, Opp 27 | Average performance vs. S&P+ projection: -7.7 PPG

The regression came on the defensive side of the ball. Troy, Arkansas State, and Idaho posted big passing numbers, and a ball-hawking defense briefly forgot how to hawk the ball. In the four games following Georgia Southern, the Mountaineers allowed a passer rating of 134.0. In the other nine games, it was only 100.6. Still, only two of the performances were particularly poor. ASU finished the season at a level close to what it had achieved in the first half of the year.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.42	7	IsoPPP+	116.7	24
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.2%	25	Succ. Rt. +	106.3	49
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.0	93	Def. FP+	33.6	119
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.2	8	Redzone S&P+	115.2	21
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.6		ACTUAL	22	+4.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	26	27	49	24
RUSHING	6	31	61	24
PASSING	93	25	34	24
Standard Downs		13	26	10
Passing Downs		84	95	71

Q1 Rk	28	1st Down Rk	43
Q2 Rk	36	2nd Down Rk	22
Q3 Rk	32	3rd Down Rk	63
Q4 Rk	46

3. Power and explosion

Through the stats above, you can see a pretty clear offensive identity. Appalachian State ran the ball frequently, played at an average pace, and required opponents to make a lot of gang tackles. Three 200-pound running backs and a 200-pound quarterback combined to average 38 carries and 239 yards per game, and with them, the Mountaineers had one of the most devastating offenses in the country ... on standard downs.

On passing downs, the Mountaineers were, like a lot of run-happy teams, not particularly effective. They played it self with rushes pretty often, and Taylor Lamb completed just 52 percent of his passes on third-and-4 or more.

Unlike a lot of power-based attacks, however, Appalachian State wasn't necessarily reliant on efficiency. The 'Neers could gash you. Their 80 gains of 20-plus yards ranked 18th in FBS and second in the Sun Belt. This was a dangerous, explosive, powerful offense as long as it remained on schedule.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Taylor Lamb	6'2, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7833	170	283	2387	31	9	60.1%	11	3.7%	7.9
J.P. Caruso	6'1, 210	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8016	8	12	109	2	0	66.7%	0	0.0%	9.1
Jake Easter	6'2, 186	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7914
Zac Thomas	6'2, 203	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7844

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Marcus Cox	RB	5'10, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7783	243	1423	9	5.9	6.7	40.7%	4	3
Jalin Moore	RB	5'11, 200	So.	NR	0.7000	99	731	5	7.4	7.4	46.5%	1	1
Terrence Upshaw	RB	5'10, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8152	81	442	3	5.5	4.6	48.1%	1	0
Taylor Lamb	QB	6'2, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7833	74	507	5	6.9	6.2	51.4%	3	2
Josh Boyd	RB	5'10, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8194	41	155	0	3.8	2.2	41.5%	1	1
J.P. Caruso	QB	6'1, 210	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8016	17	125	0	7.4	7.4	47.1%	0	0
Ricky Fergerson	RB					11	80	1	7.3	8.9	45.5%	1	1
Simms McElfresh	WR					8	76	1	9.5	4.8	75.0%	1	1
Eric Davidson	RB					6	12	0	2.0	1.5	16.7%	0	0
Nikia Cathey	RB	5'9, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8338
Marcus Williams Jr.	RB	5'10, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8317

4. All the running backs you need

Appalachian State was able to run the ball so well despite general youth in the backfield. Lamb was only a sophomore, and three of the top four running backs were either freshmen or sophomores. Now, not only are they all scheduled to return, but they could also be joined in the rotation by three-star sophomore Nikia Cathey and incoming three-star freshman (per the 247Sports Composite) Marcus Williams Jr. Williams was one of the gems of this year's recruiting class, and it's not hard to see the draw of playing in this offense if you're a running back.

If something could trip up the ASU running game, however, it's the line. Two all-conference performers -- center Jesse Chapman and tackle Davante Harris -- are gone. A third returns (guard Parker Collins), as do three other linemen with starting experience. But with an offense that doesn't perform well on passing downs, efficiency is important, and a reshuffled line is sometimes a cause of inefficiency.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Simms McElfresh	WR-M					58	38	466	65.5%	20.7%	8.0	48.3%	51.7%	1.42
Malachi Jones	WR-X					44	25	463	56.8%	15.7%	10.5	50.0%	50.0%	1.90
Shaedon Meadors	WR	6'2, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8339	34	21	439	61.8%	12.1%	12.9	73.5%	50.0%	2.39
Bobo Beathard	WR-Z					21	14	265	66.7%	7.5%	12.6	57.1%	57.1%	2.18
Marcus Cox	RB	5'10, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7783	21	18	160	85.7%	7.5%	7.6	38.1%	52.4%	1.42
Barrett Burns	TE	6'4, 245	Sr.	NR	NR	19	15	163	78.9%	6.8%	8.6	68.4%	68.4%	1.36
Ike Lewis	WR-M	5'10, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7894	18	11	158	61.1%	6.4%	8.8	66.7%	55.6%	1.59
Montez McGuire	WR-Z					14	8	125	57.1%	5.0%	8.9	57.1%	57.1%	1.47
Levi Duffield	TE	6'2, 205	Jr.	NR	NR	11	7	52	63.6%	3.9%	4.7	90.9%	54.5%	0.96
Terrence Upshaw	RB	5'10, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8152	7	3	46	42.9%	2.5%	6.6	42.9%	28.6%	1.97
Deltron Hopkins	WR	5'8, 160	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7944	7	4	27	57.1%	2.5%	3.9	71.4%	28.6%	1.35
Jaylan Barbour	WR	5'10, 180	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8500	6	3	49	50.0%	2.1%	8.2	50.0%	50.0%	1.33
Dante Jones	WR-X	5'11, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7646	3	2	35	66.7%	1.1%	11.7	33.3%	33.3%	3.84
Jaquil Capel	WR	5'11, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	2	2	26	100.0%	0.7%	13.0	50.0%	100.0%	0.95
Bill Cecil	TE	6'0, 210	Jr.	NR	NR	2	2	3	100.0%	0.7%	1.5	50.0%	50.0%	0.46
Zy Letman	WR	6'3, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8167
Mock Adams	WR	6'4, 187	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8156
Collin Reed	TE	6'3, 235	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719
Mitchell McClurg	TE	6'3, 226	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893
Jalen Virgil	WR	6'2, 205	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893

5. You'll still need to throw the ball, too

Until proven otherwise, there are a couple of concerns up front on the line. There are a couple more at wide receiver, where Shaedon Meadors is the only of last year's top four wideouts returning. A former star recruit, Meadors has missed part of two seasons with injury or illness, but when healthy he is a hell of a play-action threat. He could blossom into a star if he can stay on the field. But if he doesn't, then Lamb will be looking around at a terribly green receiving corps.

Outside of Meadors, five returning wideouts did catch at least two passes last year, including another former star recruit, Jaylan Barbour. But only one (Ike Lewis) caught more than four.

Lamb himself still has some improving to do, too. He's a perfect distributor for this type of offense, but passing downs are playmaker downs, and he didn't make a ton of plays in those situations. He checks down to running backs and safer options, which is good ... to a point. But the next step of his maturation process (and here's where I feel compelled to mention he's only now a junior and is 18-7) will be making some bigger throws to catch the Mountaineers back up to the chains. And that might be tough to do with a less experienced set of receivers.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	109.9	3.36	3	45.0%	62.5%	19.2%	151.5	4.2%	3.0%
Rank	28	7	86	10	86	65	24	49	6

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Jesse Chapman	C					13	25	2015 1st All-Sun Belt
Davante Harris	LT					13	29	2015 2nd All-Sun Belt
Parker Collins	LG	6'3, 280	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	13	23	2015 2nd All-Sun Belt
Shaq Counts	LG					0	24
Colby Gossett	RT	6'6, 315	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	13	20
Beau Nunn	RT	6'4, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	7	17
Jamie Collmar	RG	6'2, 295	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7805	6	7
Victor Johnson	LT	6'5, 260	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7938	0	0
Tobias Edge-Campbell	C	6'2, 300	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7444	0	0
Chandler Greer	RG	6'5, 280	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7594	0	0
Madison Malone	RT	6'5, 275	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7444	0	0
Alex Taylor	OL	6'9, 294	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7959
Nate Haskins	OL	6'5, 270	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7806

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.16	20	IsoPPP+	112.6	33
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	37.9%	29	Succ. Rt. +	101.5	61
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.9	63	Off. FP+	26.7	114
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.5	12	Redzone S&P+	103.6	51
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.6		ACTUAL	24.0	+8.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	11	41	61	33
RUSHING	27	42	56	34
PASSING	14	52	70	44
Standard Downs		31	44	31
Passing Downs		53	91	32

Q1 Rk	32	1st Down Rk	28
Q2 Rk	31	2nd Down Rk	33
Q3 Rk	51	3rd Down Rk	26
Q4 Rk	56

6. Closing the deal

This isn't the good kind of symmetry, but Appalachian State's defense had basically the same outlook as its offense: dominate on standard downs, falter on passing downs.

The Mountaineers were 31st in Standard Downs S&P+, scaring opponents into running because of their great pass rush and allowing only 3.7 yards per carry on first and second down. Then, once opponents worked up the nerve to pass, the App State pass rush honed in. In the opponent-adjusted Adj. Line Yards, the Mountaineers ranked 12th in the country.

Unfortunately, when the pass rush didn't get there, quarterbacks were able to find receivers past the first down marker. While 44th in Standard Downs Success Rate+, ASU was 91st on passing downs. They were still preventing huge gains, but opponents were able to find second life at times. That might have had a role to play in a slight fade -- ASU ranked in the 30s in the first and second quarter and in the 50s in the third and fourth.

ASU really needed that pass rush to make things happen in 2015, and that's a little bit scary considering the loss of end Ronald Blair, who not only led the team in TFLs and sacks but was also active enough to rank third on the team in tackles. He was the rarest of commodities: a 3-4 end who is a ferocious playmaker. That he is very nearly the only starter lost from this defense is encouraging, but he was special.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.1	2.73	2.64	36.0%	64.5%	20.6%	139.8	7.3%	10.6%
Rank	61	41	16	39	56	53	12	11	17

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ronald Blair	DE					13	56.5	7.9%	19.0	7.5	1	0	1	1
Nate Norwood	DE	6'2, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	13	27.5	3.9%	7.0	4.0	0	0	0	0
Olawale Dada	DE	6'0, 235	Sr.	NR	NR	13	25.0	3.5%	5.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
Tyson Fernandez	NT	6'2, 320	Sr.	NR	NR	13	18.5	2.6%	4.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Caleb Fuller	DE	6'0, 240	Jr.	NR	NR	13	17.0	2.4%	3.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Stephen Burns	NT					13	10.5	1.5%	4.0	1.5	0	1	0	0
Darian Small	NT	6'2, 315	Sr.	NR	NR	12	7.0	1.0%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Antonious Sims	DE	6'3, 250	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	5	6.5	0.9%	2.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Tashion Singleton	DE					11	4.0	0.6%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Myquon Stout	NT	6'1, 285	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7659	12	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Alanmicheal Harkness	DE	6'3, 260	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7979	4	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Matthew McClurg	DE	6'5, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8088
Chris Willis	DE	6'2, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7683
Baer Hunter	DE	6'3, 240	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7500

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Eric Boggs	ILB	6'3, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7383	13	79.0	11.1%	7.5	4.0	3	1	0	0
John Law	ILB	6'0, 230	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8245	12	57.0	8.0%	9.5	4.0	2	1	0	0
Kennan Gilchrist	OLB	6'2, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7733	13	50.0	7.0%	3.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Devan Stringer	OLB	5'11, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7705	13	47.5	6.7%	7.5	2.5	0	2	0	1
Rashaad Townes	OLB	6'2, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	9	22.0	3.5%	4.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Osvaldo Sombo	OLB					13	21.5	3.0%	6.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
D.J. Ward	ILB					10	11.0	1.5%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Teh'Ron Fuller	ILB	6'2, 225	So.	NR	0.7900	12	7.5	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Anthony Flory	ILB	6'2, 225	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7533	13	7.0	1.0%	0.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Dustin Anderson	OLB					12	5.5	0.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Toronto Thomas	ILB	6'0, 235	Sr.	NR	NR	11	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Okon Godwin	OLB	6'2, 240	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059	7	3.0	0.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dezmin Reed	OLB	6'2, 230	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893
Akeem Davis	OLB	6'2, 200	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7954

7. Replacing Ronald

The good news is that seniors Nate Norwood and Olawale Dada were pretty active ends in their own right, combining for 12.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks. They don't have Blair's size, however. At 6'4, 270, Blair had the heft of a true 3-4 end, somebody who can both make plays and stand up to run-blocking. At 6'2, 240 and 6'0, 235, Norwood and Dada are not. That could open the door for bigger options like senior Antonious Sims or sophomore Alanmichael Harkness.

Size isn't an issue at nose tackle, though, where seniors Tyson Fernandez (6'2, 320) and Darian Small (6'2, 315) will again hold things down pretty well. They are excellent at standing up blockers and clearing the runway for inside linebackers Eric Boggs and John Law (combined: 17 TFLs, eight sacks, five INTs).

Losing a special player hurts quite a bit, but Appalachian State has more depth, experience, and potential in the front seven than a Sun Belt team should. They should be alright up front, even if the sack rate slips a hair.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alex Gray	FS	6'3, 210	Sr.	NR	NR	13	43.0	6.0%	1.5	0	2	2	1	0
Doug Middleton	SS					13	41.5	5.8%	1	0.5	0	3	0	0
Latrell Gibbs	CB	5'10, 170	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	13	39.5	5.5%	2	0	7	12	0	0
A.J. Howard	SS	5'11, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7844	13	28.5	4.0%	5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Mondo Williams	CB	5'11, 175	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719	12	26.5	3.7%	2	0	2	4	0	0
Tae Hayes	CB	5'11, 175	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7744	13	18.0	2.5%	1	0	1	4	0	0
Josh Thomas	FS	6'0, 205	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7967	13	5.5	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Austin Exford	DB	6'2, 195	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7400	4	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Junior Sigalo	DB					11	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Aaron Krah	CB					11	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Pinckney	DB	6'0, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR
Desmond Franklin	DB	6'2, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8056
K.J. Chamberlain	DB	6'2, 194	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8011
Shemar Jean-Charles	DB	5'11, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7932
Aris Duffey	DB	6'0, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7966

8. Making plays, preventing plays

It did appear that the ASU's secondary was pretty conservative on passing downs, playing it safe and hoping that the pass rush got to the quarterback. But they were indeed excellent at big-play prevention, and when allowed to attack, they attacked well. With Alex Gray playing a strong safety-valve role, corner Latrell Gibs was able to pick off seven passes and break up 12 more.

Losing strong safety Doug Middleton hurts, but defensive coordinator Nate Woody still has plenty of experienced safety options in Gray and junior A.J. Hoawrd, and corner Tae Hayes showed some playmaker flashes as a freshman.

You'd prefer not to be prone to giving up nine-yard passes on third-and-8 here and there, but if you have to pick a problem, that's a pretty good one -- it means you're forcing third-and-8s, and even bad passing downs defenses make stops more often than not. Unless the pass rush completely falls apart without Blair, this secondary should still be able to make some plays.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Bentlee Critcher	6'1, 190	Sr.	51	43.4	6	14	11	49.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Zach Matics			81	62.0	40	1	49.4%
Bentlee Critcher	6'1, 190	Sr.	4	63.3	3	0	75.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Zach Matics			61-61	9-10	90.0%	5-7	71.4%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Ricky Fergerson	KR			21	21.9	0
Bobo Beathard	KR			6	21.5	0
Bobo Beathard	PR			12	5.3	0
Latrell Gibbs	PR	5'10, 170	Jr.	8	6.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	3
Field Goal Efficiency	7
Punt Return Success Rate	112
Kick Return Success Rate	17
Punt Success Rate	30
Kickoff Success Rate	48

9. Rebuilding a great special teams unit

Punt returns were mostly nonexistent, but App State was steady with Ricky Fergerson in kick returns, Bentlee Critcher's punts were long and often unreturnable, and Zach Matics was a serious weapon in both kickoffs and place-kicking. Critcher returns (and could be an equally solid kickoffs guy), but Fergerson and Matics do not. That means turnover in three of the four areas that powered the Mountaineers' No. 3 special teams ranking.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	at Tennessee	9	-16.8	17%
10-Sep	Old Dominion	111	18.8	86%
17-Sep	Miami	30	-2.9	43%
24-Sep	at Akron	97	6.6	65%
1-Oct	Georgia State	105	16.3	83%
12-Oct	at UL-Lafayette	106	10.7	73%
22-Oct	Idaho	108	18.3	86%
27-Oct	at Georgia Southern	52	-4.3	40%
5-Nov	Texas State	120	21.2	89%
12-Nov	at Troy	103	8.6	69%
19-Nov	UL-Monroe	125	23.5	91%
26-Nov	at New Mexico State	117	13.5	78%
Projected wins: 8.2

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-6.1% (73)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	115 / 113
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	2 / -2.0
2015 TO Luck/Game	+1.7
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	75% (72%, 78%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	10.5 (0.5)

10. Statement opportunities abound

Appalachian State is going to be quite good this season. The defense is loaded with both experience and playmaking ability, and despite a little bit of turnover on the offensive line, the run game should again be great. Most of the reasons the Mountaineers were good last year are back. Without Blair, and with new names in the receiving corps, it might be hard for them to TOP last year's output, but they could be able to replicate it.

In this light, the schedule is pretty much perfect. ASU avoids Arkansas State and faces only three opponents projected higher than 97th, but two of the three have big names (Tennessee, Miami), and the third is Georgia Southern. There is an opportunity to rack up the win total, but there's also a chance for a statement win or two. Tennessee is probably out of ASU's league (unless this offseason's drama catches up to the Vols), but Miami comes TO Boone, and ASU was more than capable of handling Southern last year.

Lose to the good teams and beat the bad teams, and there's a chance that the Mountaineers are going for another 10-win season in another bowl. That's good enough. But ASU's got a chance to claim a pretty big scalp or two, too.

It is amazing how much has clicked for this program of late. But while the high number of juniors and seniors could mean a regression year at some point in the future, I would be pretty surprised if Appalachian State didn't once again rack up the wins in 2015. You can talk yourself into Georgia Southern or Arkansas State being the Sun Belt favorite, but they have bigger questions to answer than the Mountaineers do.