Hawaii football travels to Australia, Michigan and Arizona within 2016's first 22 days

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1. Taking on a hard job

Hard jobs remain hard. I repeat it so much during this preview series (example 1, example 2) that it becomes a mantra. Budgets, history, and recruiting bases assure difficulty remains high and margin for error remains low for certain jobs in college football, perhaps more than in any other sport.

At UL-Monroe, you have to make a great hire to be good. But at Alabama, you only have to make a good hire to be great. (And if you make a great hire, you can become transcendent.)

Hawaii is a hard job, not only because of those things, but also because of pure geography. You have to travel absurd distances to recruit or even to play against other teams.

To make money, you have to agree to games with nice payouts, and that leaves you open to impossible arrangements, like playing Cal in Australia the Saturday after school starts, then at Michigan the next, with a trip to play Arizona right after your first home game.

Because of the growing money chasm in FBS, a job like Hawaii is not only tough, but getting tougher. Granted, the state and university still have quite a few things going for them, but this is an uncertain time.

The Rainbow Warriors have had quite a few runs of success. Dick Tomey finished .500 or better for seven of eight seasons in the 1970s and 1980s, Bob Wagner went 18-6-1 in 1988-89 and 11-2 in 1992, and June Jones engineered five seasons with nine-plus wins between 2001-07. But after reaching seven bowls in nine seasons under Jones and successor Greg McMackin, Hawaii has reached only one in the last seven. McMackin won only seven games per season from 2008-11, which felt disappointing, but since he left, the Warriors have averaged three.

It could be worse. After dumping Norm Chow, Hawaii could have found someone less uniquely qualified than Nick Rolovich.

His résumé reads like that of someone being groomed for the Hawaii job. In 2001, as a senior at UH, Rolovich threw for 3,361 yards and 34 touchdowns and finished 10th in the country in pass efficiency and fourth in total offense. In 2003-04, he was a student assistant for the Rainbow Warriors. In 2008-09, he returned to serve as quarterbacks coach, and in 2010-11, he took over as offensive coordinator.

When Chow came back to the islands, Rolovich left. He spent the last four seasons as Nevada's offensive coordinator, first under Chris Ault, then under Brian Polian. He came up as a passer, then spent time with Ault, one of football's best run innovators.

At 36, Rolovich is one of FBS' youngest head coaches, but what he lacks in volume of experience, he makes up for with relevant experience. As a player, low-level assistant, and offensive coordinator, he's been exposed to what it takes to win at Hawaii.

Knowing what the job entails and being up for it are two different things. Nevada's offense slipped in each of Rolovich's four years in, which is a red flag. But he's hired a young, hungry staff of assistants to bring energy to a program that needs it, both metaphorically and literally -- his team will have already flown about 10,000 miles this fall by the time it plays its first home game.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-10 | Adj. Record: 2-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 120 | Final S&P+ Rk: 118
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
3-Sep	Colorado	94	28-20	W	62%	80%	+12.0	+15.5
12-Sep	at Ohio State	3	0-38	L	10%	0%	+9.0	+2.0
19-Sep	UC Davis	N/A	47-27	W	46%	90%	+7.1
26-Sep	at Wisconsin	32	0-28	L	11%	0%	+3.4	-3.5
3-Oct	at Boise State	37	0-55	L	1%	0%	-36.1	-30.5
10-Oct	San Diego State	43	14-28	L	24%	2%	-14.0	-17.0
17-Oct	at New Mexico	99	27-28	L	61%	74%	-2.5	+5.0
24-Oct	at Nevada	97	20-30	L	48%	51%	+0.4	-3.0
31-Oct	Air Force	63	7-58	L	1%	0%	-41.9	-44.0
7-Nov	at UNLV	105	21-41	L	20%	15%	-12.3	-10.0
14-Nov	Fresno State	103	14-42	L	7%	1%	-30.8	-32.5
21-Nov	San Jose State	89	23-42	L	8%	0%	-13.8	-9.0
28-Nov	UL-Monroe	121	28-26	W	46%	72%	-3.7	+2.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	17.8	119	34.0	99
Points Per Game	17.6	118	35.6	105

2. An empty tank

You can talk yourself into Hawaii improving this year. [...] Unfortunately, the early schedule is miserable. By Oct. 4, Hawaii will have played on the road against three teams that ranked 25th or better in F/+ last year. If the Warriors don't beat Colorado in the opener, they're staring at a 1-4 start when San Diego State visits on Oct. 10.

If this snowballs, Chow could be gone by the time lesser teams begin showing up.

There was danger in Hawaii's 2015 schedule. The Rainbow Warriors brought decent experience and faced quite a few teams destined for the lower end of the S&P+ rankings. And they actually didn't ply that poorly out of the gates. They upset Colorado, performed well compared to expectations against Ohio State and Wisconsin, and put away UC Davis with ease.

But the hurdles were too much. After a loss to Wisconsin, UH got smoked by Boise State. And after three competitive results -- a home loss to conference champ SDSU and road losses by a combined 11 points to two bowl teams (New Mexico, Nevada) -- the bottom dropped out.

• First 8 games
  Avg. percentile performance: 33% | Avg. score: Opp 32, UH 17 | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: -2.6 PPG
• Next 4 games
  Avg. percentile performance: 9% | Avg. score: Opp 46, UH 16 | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: -24.7 PPG

Through eight games, Hawaii had laid only one real egg. But starting on Halloween, there were four straight. Chow was let go after the Air Force loss, and interim head coach Chris Naeole (the offensive line coach, retained by Rolovich) couldn't stem the tide. The Rainbow Warriors were out of gas, especially on defense, where they were suddenly allowing 14 more points per game.

There was a nice rally in the home finale against ULM (another hard job), when Hawaii jumped out to a 21-3 lead in the first half. Chow finished with a 10-36 record, and Naeole moved back to OL coach with a 1-3 lifetime record.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.22	84	IsoPPP+	81.5	116
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	35.4%	117	Succ. Rt. +	89.2	109
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	32.0	110	Def. FP+	30.6	90
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.3	76	Redzone S&P+	98.0	80
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	34.3		ACTUAL	34	-0.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	121	116	109	116
RUSHING	116	109	105	108
PASSING	98	112	106	115
Standard Downs		117	109	118
Passing Downs		106	104	105

Q1 Rk	122	1st Down Rk	116
Q2 Rk	113	2nd Down Rk	121
Q3 Rk	63	3rd Down Rk	103
Q4 Rk	114

3. A Rolovich offense?

It's hard to know what defines one at this point.

He came up in the run-and-shoot system, then spent the last four years running the option at the home of the pistol formation. He's never been nearly as interested in pace as a lot of other up-and-comers, but he's been involved in significantly run-heavy and pass-heavy offenses.

Rolovich's initial coordinator hire hinted at an attempt to move back toward the former, but former EWU coordinator Zak Hill was only on the job for a couple of months before getting plucked away by Boise State. While he has not yet announced a new hire, coming after Hill suggests Rolovich's preference is to throw the ball.

He inherits a set of personnel that showed big-play potential but was lacking terribly in efficiency. Returning quarterback Ikaika Woolsey completed only 49 percent, and that was better than leader Max Wittek. Leading receiver Marcus Kemp averaged 15.6 yards per catch but caught only 46 percent of his passes. Experience is a plus -- Woolsey, Kemp, and last year's top two running backs are all seniors -- but at first glance, this doesn't appear to be experienced, efficient personnel.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Max Wittek					128	271	1542	7	15	47.2%	22	7.5%	4.8
Ikaika Woolsey	6'1, 215	Sr.	2 stars	0.7444	73	149	908	5	6	49.0%	9	5.7%	5.3
Beau Reilly	6'6, 190	So.	2 stars	0.7593
Cole McDonald	6'4, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8056
Davine Tullis	6'2, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7683

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Paul Harris	RB	5'11, 190	Sr.	NR	0.8000	197	1132	6	5.7	6.1	39.1%	2	2
Diocemy Saint Juste (2014)	RB	5'8, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8256	73	372	3	5.1	5.9	37.0%	3	1
Melvin Davis	RB	6'2, 235	Sr.	NR	0.7900	59	218	6	3.7	2.4	33.9%	2	2
Steven Lakalaka	RB	5'10, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8578	48	187	0	3.9	2.5	31.3%	1	0
Ikaika Woolsey	QB	6'1, 215	Sr.	2 stars	0.7444	38	150	2	3.9	2.0	42.1%	2	0
Ryan Tuiasoa	RB	5'11, 210	Jr.	NR	NR	18	79	0	4.4	4.9	33.3%	2	1
Max Wittek	QB					16	59	1	3.7	6.1	31.3%	6	3
Justin Vele	FB					4	8	0	2.0	0.0	0.0%	0	0
Freddie Holly	RB	6'0, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8509
Max Hendrie	ATH	6'4, 235	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8300

4. Big-play potential

With the return of Diocemy Saint Juste from a 2015 injury, Hawaii brings back two explosive rushers. In Saint Juste's absence, Paul Harris had a nice year. Granted, a nice chunk of his season yardage came from the UC Davis game (10 carries, 147 yards), but he finished strong. In the last four games, while almost everybody else was struggling, he rushed 101 times for 661 yards (6.5) and three touchdowns while catching seven passes for 51 yards.

Harris gained at least five yards on just 39 percent of his carries, and at 5'11, 190 pounds, he's not going to be a major power presence. But he can scoot when he has some daylight.

Kemp can be a vertical threat. In two seasons, he's caught 92 passes for 1,360 yards (14.8), and he was a difference-maker at times. In Hawaii's three wins, he caught a combined 14 passes for 279 yards (19.9) and two touchdowns. The problem: his catch rate was horrendous, and in Hawaii's 10 losses, he caught just 22 passes for 284 yards (12.9).

Rolovich secured the signatures of a few exciting skill position threats in February: high-three-star running back Freddie Holly, mid-three-star receiver Kalakaua Timoteo, and, most interestingly, Australian rugby player Max Hendrie. Add them in with other youngsters (sophomore receivers Dylan Collie and Devan Stubblefield), and you've got the makings of a solid supporting cast for whoever wins the quarterback job.

But there's not a proven efficiency weapon to be found. Not a single returning running back had even a 40 percent opportunity rate last year, and not a single returning wide receiver had a 60 percent catch rate. This will be a hit-and-miss offense.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Marcus Kemp	WR	6'4, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7819	79	36	563	45.6%	19.9%	7.1	60.8%	39.2%	1.65
Devan Stubblefield	WR	6'0, 190	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333	67	30	351	44.8%	16.9%	5.2	58.2%	31.3%	1.60
Dylan Collie	WR	5'10, 175	So.	3 stars	NR	53	29	342	54.7%	13.4%	6.5	66.0%	49.1%	1.12
Isaiah Bernard	WR	6'1, 190	Sr.	NR	NR	45	21	219	46.7%	11.3%	4.9	53.3%	31.1%	1.32
Quinton Pedroza	WR					40	23	294	57.5%	10.1%	7.4	52.5%	47.5%	1.04
Metuisela `Unga	TE	6'5, 240	Jr.	NR	NR	25	11	170	44.0%	6.3%	6.8	60.0%	36.0%	1.55
Makoa Camanse-Stevens	WR	6'4, 205	Sr.	NR	NR	22	13	191	59.1%	5.5%	8.7	59.1%	45.5%	1.78
Dakota Torres	TE	6'2, 245	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719	21	11	98	52.4%	5.3%	4.7	42.9%	38.1%	1.13
Paul Harris	RB	5'11, 190	Sr.	NR	0.8000	17	14	151	82.4%	4.3%	8.9	52.9%	35.3%	2.21
Vasquez Haynes	WR	6'2, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8122	7	1	2	14.3%	1.8%	0.3	28.6%	0.0%	0.00
Steven Lakalaka	RB	5'10, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8578	6	4	14	66.7%	1.5%	2.3	33.3%	16.7%	1.48
Melvin Davis	RB	6'2, 235	Sr.	NR	0.7900	5	3	52	60.0%	1.3%	10.4	60.0%	20.0%	4.22
Harold Moleni	TE					3	3	31	100.0%	0.8%	10.3	33.3%	66.7%	1.54
Davasyia Hagger	TE	6'6, 230	Jr.	NR	NR	3	1	13	33.3%	0.8%	4.3	33.3%	33.3%	0.85
Ammon Barker	WR	6'4, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8210
Keelan Ewaliko	WR	5'11, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7905
Marcus Armstrong-Brown	WR	6'3, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000
Kalakaua Timoteo	WR	6'3, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8422

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.1	3.09	2.46	36.2%	66.7%	18.8%	92.2	6.4%	7.9%
Rank	72	33	114	98	58	53	74	94	79

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Ben Clarke	LT					13	50
Dejon Allen	RG	6'3, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8472	13	24
Elijah Tupai	LG	6'4, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8150	11	14
RJ Hollis	RT	6'4, 295	Sr.	NR	NR	13	13
Asotui Eli	C	6'4, 295	So.	NR	NR	12	12
Brenden Urban	C					1	7
Leo Koloamatangi	LT	6'5, 290	Sr.	NR	0.7733	1	4
John Wa'a	LG	6'4, 315	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7832	1	3
Matt Norman	OL	6'5, 260	Jr.	NR	0.7000	0	0
Luke Clements	OL	6'5, 300	Jr.	NR	NR	0	0
J.R. Hensley	OL	6'5, 310	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7833
Austin Webb	OL	6'8, 310	RSFr.	NR	NR
Fred Ulu-Perry	OL	6'2, 305	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9318
Josh Hauani'o	OL	6'4, 300	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8000

5. The line will be a (relative) strength

Compared to Hawaii's offensive stats, the line stats were pretty decent. The Rainbow Warriors ranked in the top 60 in stuff rate, power success rate, and standard downs line yards per carry, and the sack rates weren't awful. Offensive line coach Chris Naeole was held in high enough regard that Rolovich retained him. That's a pretty good sign.

Four of last year's starters are back, along with two upperclassmen who have had spot-starting experience over the years. And while the loss of four-year starting tackle Ben Clarke isn't a good thing, UCLA transfer Fred Ulu-Perry, once a four-star recruit per the 247Sports Composite, is eligible. I would be surprised if UH's line stats regress.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.12	9	IsoPPP+	95.8	81
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.6%	105	Succ. Rt. +	86.2	117
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	26.8	121	Off. FP+	27.3	110
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.9	106	Redzone S&P+	94.8	88
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.9		ACTUAL	11.0	-6.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	105	94	117	81
RUSHING	120	80	102	59
PASSING	42	107	123	94
Standard Downs		101	114	90
Passing Downs		70	110	36

Q1 Rk	100	1st Down Rk	94
Q2 Rk	109	2nd Down Rk	103
Q3 Rk	44	3rd Down Rk	46
Q4 Rk	102

6. A Kevin Lempa defense

Most of Rolovich's hires are on the younger side. Kevin Lempa is not. The 42-year veteran began his career at Southern Connecticut State in 1974, spent all of the 1980s with Jack Bicknell's Boston College, and served as defensive coordinator at Dartmouth (1991-96), Hawaii (2000-02, when Rolovich was quarterback), Central Connecticut State (2011), and Columbia (2012). He also spent three years with the San Diego Chargers, giving him a unique, coast-heavy résumé.

As far as I can tell, Lempa's defenses have been react-and-swarm units. Neither CCSU in 2011 nor Columbia in 2012 had much in the way of tackles for loss, but they broke up or intercepted quite a few passes, and they forced a quite a few fumbles. So they react to what you're doing (instead of trying to disrupt it), then they go for the ball.

That approach might work pretty well with what Lempa inherits. Hawaii's was a bend-don't-break defense that certainly bent a lot but did a decent job of limiting big plays -- the Warriors allowed 24 gains of 30-plus yards, 45th in FBS. On passing downs, the Warriors were particularly solid at preventing big gains. You might gain eight yards on third-and-8, but you aren't going to gain 80.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	89	3.07	3.71	41.3%	68.7%	16.9%	95.6	4.7%	8.6%
Rank	111	92	114	99	86	99	71	76	40

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kennedy Tulimasealii	DE	6'1, 285	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8369	13	52.5	6.1%	18.5	3.5	0	0	1	0
Kory Rasmussen	NT	6'2, 295	Sr.	2 stars	0.7961	13	32.5	3.7%	4.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Luke Shawley	DE					6	20.5	2.4%	2.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Penitito Faalologo	NT	5'11, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	13	18.5	2.1%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ka'aumoana Gifford	DE	6'4, 275	So.	2 stars	NR	12	16.0	1.8%	1.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
David Manoa	DE	6'3, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685	13	13.0	1.5%	2.5	2.5	0	0	1	0
Meffy Koloamatangi	DE	6'5, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	8	8.0	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Zeno Choi	DE	6'3, 260	So.	NR	NR	5	3.5	0.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jamie Tago	DE	6'2, 250	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7733
Sione Kauhi	DE	6'5, 275	RSFr.	NR	NR
Netane Muti	DT	6'4, 275	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7900

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Julian Gener	ILB					11	79.0	9.1%	13.0	2.5	1	1	2	0
Jerrol Garcia-Williams	ILB	6'2, 235	Sr.	NR	0.7000	10	72.0	8.3%	3.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Benetton Fonua	ILB					11	53.0	6.1%	1.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Lance Williams	OLB					13	49.0	5.6%	7.0	1.0	0	1	2	0
Jahlani Tavai	OLB	6'4, 235	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333	13	41.5	4.8%	5.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Simon Poti	ILB					13	22.0	2.5%	3.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Makani Kema-Kaleiwahea	LB	6'3, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8002	10	16.0	1.8%	2.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Jeremy Castro	OLB	6'4, 240	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8861	7	15.5	1.8%	4.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Russell Williams, Jr.	OLB	6'1, 230	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	12	14.5	1.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Noah Borden	LB	6'1, 215	So.	NR	NR	10	3.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Malachi Mageo	OLB	6'2, 210	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	12	3.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Rashaan Falemalu	LB	6'1, 230	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7633
Solomon Matautia	LB	6'1, 220	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8331
Manly Williams	LB	6'2, 220	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7867
Jeremiah Pritchard	LB	6'0, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8300
Ikem Okeke	LB	6'0, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8223

7. Run defense was a (relative) strength

Lempa does inherit a legitimate play-maker up front, however. Kennedy Tulimasealii was second in the MWC with 18.5 tackles for loss, most of which came in a form other than sacks. And Hawaii was able to generate a decent passing downs pass rush by attacking from everywhere -- nine guys had at least 1.5 sacks, and none had more than 3.5.

Tulimasealii's partner in crime, inside linebacker Julian Gener, is gone, but this front seven does seem to have decent size and experience. Six of the aforementioned nine pass rushers return, and while injuries thinned out depth at end and linebacker last year, the experience gained from those injuries has potentially created better depth this time around.

The run defense wasn't good last year (80th in Rushing S&P+), but it was obviously better than the pass defense, and I would be surprised if the Warriors didn't match that ranking this year. Tulimasealii's invasive presence won't hurt, but there seem to be enough linebackers and ends here to pursue the ball pretty well.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Trayvon Henderson (2014)	S	6'0, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8093	11	58.5	7.9%	3	1	2	0	0	0
Marrell Jackson	S					10	48.5	5.6%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Nick Nelson	CB	6'0, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7926	13	45.5	5.2%	1.5	1	0	15	1	0
Ne'Quan Phillips	CB					11	42.0	4.8%	5	0	0	6	0	0
Daniel Lewis Jr.	S	5'11, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8141	13	40.5	4.7%	3	1	0	3	0	0
Jalen Rogers	CB	6'1, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	13	35.0	4.0%	2	1	1	5	0	0
Dany Mulanga	S	6'3, 200	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7783	10	33.0	3.8%	0.5	0	1	0	2	0
Gaetano DeMattei	S					8	17.5	2.0%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Jamal Mayo	CB	5'11, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8381	13	12.0	1.4%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Dejaun Butler	DB	5'11, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8033	7	9.0	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Damien Packer	DB	5'11, 210	Sr.	NR	NR	13	8.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Joshua Donovan	DB					11	4.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cameron Hayes	DB	5'11, 180	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115
Mykal Tolliver	DB	6'0, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8156
Keala Santiago	DB	6'0, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115
Scheyenne Sanitoa	DB	6'0, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7900

8. Experience in the back

Shuffling was constant in the back of the defense, too. Starting safety Trayvon Henderson played in only two games, and of the 10 players to record at least 8.5 tackles (a sample that doesn't include Henderson), five of them combined to miss 24 games.

Again, though, that could be a boon in 2016. Henderson returns, as do seven of the 10 tacklers referenced. If he has help, Nick Nelson appears to be a nice ball hawk at one corner position, and both Jalen Rogers and Jamal Mayo showed a little bit of ball skill as well. Plus, aggressive-but-small safety Daniel Lewis Jr. returns, and Rolovich signed a pair of three-star (per 247) defensive backs.

Depth issues sank this defense late last year and could again if the injury bug bites enough. But given the experience the Warriors return, improving on last year's No. 99 Def. S&P+ ranking doesn't seem impossible. This unit seems pretty capable of riding a bend-don't-break structure into the 80s or 70s.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Rigoberto Sanchez	6'1, 190	Sr.	74	45.1	2	18	27	60.8%
Aaron Novoa			5	37.6	1	1	1	40.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Rigoberto Sanchez	6'1, 190	Sr.	22	64.2	14	0	63.6%
Mauro Bondi			19	64.0	7	0	36.8%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Rigoberto Sanchez	6'1, 190	Sr.	23-24	3-4	75.0%	5-7	71.4%
Aaron Novoa			4-4	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Keelan Ewaliko	KR	5'11, 200	Jr.	22	26.3	1
Pereese Joas	KR			9	23.3	0
Nick Nelson	PR	6'0, 200	Jr.	19	7.4	0
Quinton Pedroza	PR			2	1.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	11
Field Goal Efficiency	29
Punt Return Success Rate	37
Kick Return Success Rate	78
Punt Success Rate	10
Kickoff Success Rate	37

9. Special teams will be an (actual) strength

If you have to punt a lot, you might as well have a great punter. And Rigoberto Sanchez's 45-yard average, combined with a pretty low rate of returnability, may have made him one of Hawaii's better weapons. But the special teams unit had a few of them -- Sanchez was also good at kickoffs and showed good accuracy on deep field goals. Plus, Nick Nelson was almost as good at gaining seven to 10 yards on punt returns as he was at breaking up passes. Keelan Ewaliko was an inconsistent but explosive kick returner, as well.

All three of these players return in 2016, and another top-20 rating in Special Teams S&P+ is conceivable.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
27-Aug	vs. California	49	-21.7	10%
3-Sep	at Michigan	6	-36.2	2%
10-Sep	Tennessee-Martin	NR	9.7	71%
17-Sep	at Arizona	64	-19.6	13%
1-Oct	Nevada	91	-5.7	37%
8-Oct	at San Jose State	92	-12.1	24%
15-Oct	UNLV	114	2.7	56%
22-Oct	at Air Force	80	-16.3	17%
29-Oct	New Mexico	102	-1.6	46%
5-Nov	at San Diego State	55	-20.9	11%
12-Nov	Boise State	36	-18.2	15%
19-Nov	at Fresno State	94	-11.9	24%
26-Nov	Massachusetts	127	7.2	66%
Projected wins: 3.9

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-32.1% (115)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	102 / 100
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-23 / -16.5
2015 TO Luck/Game	-2.5
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	67% (66%, 69%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	3.8 (-0.8)

10. The start of the season is unfair

Hawaii enters 2016 with a roster that appears deeper than it was last fall and features a solid offensive line, a play-making defensive end, and experience most everywhere else. The Warriors might not have the pieces to be efficient enough offensively, and they might retreat into a bend-don't-break that's a little too flexible. Still, they seem to be set up to improve in 2016.

Now look at the schedule and tell me how much that matters. Hawaii opens in Sydney, then travels to Ann Arbor, returns home for a week, and heads to Tucson. The Warriors play five projected top-70 opponents, four are away from home, and three are in the first four weeks.

That is insane. Purely insane. Hawaii's always going to have to travel pretty silly miles, but ... Hawaii to Sydney to Ann Arbor to Hawaii to Arizona, all before September 20. (Here's where you're free to make your own "...all while going to class" remark.)

If the Warriors can maintain some semblance of morale and health, they might find some wins. They do get a bye week after Arizona, and of their nine remaining opponents, six are projected 90th or worse. If UH overachieves its No. 118 projection, then getting to 5-8 or 6-7 wouldn't be out of the question. But a brutal September and a barrage of injuries ended any hope last year. There's at least a chance that the same thing happens this time around.

If nothing else, though, Rolovich knew exactly what he was getting into.