Wyoming football has improved only once in 10 years, but Craig Bohl's taking no shortcuts

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Improvement has been rare in Laramie

"A lot of the Texas guys come up here and can't cut it off the field. And honestly, it's no surprise if you've never been to a place like this," Stevens says.

He's referring to college football recruits, the sole resource that energy-rich Wyoming will likely forever be scant on. It's the 10th-largest state in the nation by area, but 50th by population, giving it the smallest marketing opportunity of any FBS program.

At tailgates dotted around War Memorial before Saturday's game, the consensus was simple, albeit depressing: you have to win to attract good players, and you have to have good players to win.

One of my favorite pieces by podcast mate Steven Godfrey was about life as a Wyoming football fan. Hard jobs remain hard, and it doesn't get much harder than this.

Wyoming isn't as geographically isolated as Hawaii, but it doesn't have beaches and weather to offer. It boasts far better revenue than a UL-Monroe, but it lacks ULM's proximity to recruits (and budgeting for recruiting travel is tricky). It offers freedom to get creative -- here, Joe Tiller first perfected the pass-first attack that would take Purdue to the Rose Bowl -- but offers few of the natural resources to pull it off.

This job has often served as the ultimate apprenticeship. Bob Devaney went 31-7-2 from 1958-61, then moved on to Nebraska. Fred Akers spent two years (he went 8-4 in 1976) before moving back to Austin. Pat Dye went 6-5 in 1981 before taking the Auburn job. Dennis Erickson went 6-6 in 1986, then moved on to Washington State, then Miami. Tiller did six and went 10-2 in 1996. Et cetera.

If you're not up for it, it doesn't take long to figure out (Vic Koenning, for example: 5-29 from 2000-02). Bless Craig Bohl for taking it on.

Now 57, Bohl could have remained at North Dakota State until retirement. The former Duke and Nebraska defensive coordinator oversaw the Bison's seamless transition from Division II to what is now FCS. They went 15-7 in their first two years in FCS, then 20-2 in their next two. Once eligible, they reached the FCS quarterfinals, then won three straight national titles.

When Bohl left Fargo, he was 43-2 in his previous three years. Since he left, he's won six games. NDSU has won two more titles.

Bohl doesn't mind taking a while to lay a foundation. With the FCS transition complete, his Bison took a brief step backward. They went 9-13 in 2008-09 and finished seventh in the Missouri Valley in 2009. Their leap forward was sudden, but little was certain heading into 2010.

In other words, he's probably not panicking. That's good, because it would be easy to do so. Bohl inherited a team that had gone 5-7 with an S&P+ ranking of 108th in 2013; in two years, he's gone 4-8 (107th) and 2-10 (114th). The offense has regressed each year, and after building one of the nation's best defenses at any level, Bohl has no momentum on that side of the ball.

That's nothing new for a program that has either stayed the same or regressed for nine of the last 10 seasons:

Last year's depth chart was littered with freshmen and sophomores. The result wasn't pretty. But freshmen and sophomores become sophomores and juniors, and if Bohl is going to succeed in Laramie, we'll probably start seeing how in 2016.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 | Adj. Record: 1-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 115 | Final S&P+ Rk: 114
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	North Dakota	N/A	13-24	L	14%	24%	-16.1
12-Sep	Eastern Michigan	122	29-48	L	7%	1%	-34.2	-32.5
19-Sep	at Washington State	54	14-31	L	25%	5%	+1.6	+7.0
26-Sep	New Mexico	99	28-38	L	19%	5%	-4.2	-7.0
3-Oct	at Appalachian State	42	13-31	L	31%	3%	+6.7	-13.0
10-Oct	at Air Force	63	17-31	L	31%	7%	+15.4	+10.0
17-Oct	Nevada	97	28-21	W	73%	88%	+16.7	+14.0
24-Oct	at Boise State	37	14-34	L	28%	3%	+8.2	+15.0
30-Oct	at Utah State	53	27-58	L	11%	0%	-9.7	-3.0
7-Nov	Colorado State	86	7-26	L	5%	0%	-9.4	-7.5
14-Nov	at San Diego State	43	3-38	L	8%	0%	-11.7	-10.5
28-Nov	UNLV	105	35-28	W	47%	62%	+7.8	+7.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	23.5	102	38.1	115
Points Per Game	19.0	115	34.0	102

2. A slight uptick in the middle

When North Dakota came to town on September 5, Wyoming's depth chart was already dropping hints. Twenty-three of 44 players on the two-deep were underclassmen. The quarterback was a transfer. The secondary -- a unit in which experience seems most directly tied to quality -- boasted one senior, one sophomore, and six freshmen.

This was destined to go poorly, and wow, did it. Wyoming began almost comically bad, losing by 11 to North Dakota while getting outgained by 99 yards, then getting whomped by lowly Eastern Michigan by 19. Both were at home.

Fortunes briefly improved, even if the record didn't. The Cowboys were far more competitive in losses to Appalachian State, Air Force, and Boise State and managed to pick off Nevada for their first win. But things got a lot worse.

• First 4 games:
  Avg. percentile performance: 16% | Avg. score: Opp 35, UW 21 | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: -13.2 PPG
• Next 4 games: 
  Avg. percentile performance: 41% | Avg. score: Opp 29, UW 18 | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: +11.8 PPG
• Last 4 games: 
  Avg. percentile performance: 18% | Avg. score: Opp 38, UW 18 | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: -5.8 PPG

After three straight dreadful results, Wyoming did manage to knock off UNLV in the season finale. In the end, the Cowboys managed to win both of the games they were actually able to keep within one possession.

Maybe that's a good sign for the future. Or maybe it's just a reminder that they were a couple of bounces from 0-12. Regardless, this was a mess. What we'll find out in 2016 is if it was a necessary period of growing pains.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.23	79	IsoPPP+	87.1	109
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.3%	93	Succ. Rt. +	95.6	90
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.2	75	Def. FP+	30.0	75
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.1	97	Redzone S&P+	102.8	66
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.9		ACTUAL	21	+1.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	100	106	90	109
RUSHING	62	106	95	105
PASSING	101	95	78	98
Standard Downs		72	43	81
Passing Downs		126	124	125

Q1 Rk	94	1st Down Rk	98
Q2 Rk	88	2nd Down Rk	81
Q3 Rk	107	3rd Down Rk	93
Q4 Rk	31

3. Dreadful behind schedule

Standard downs shine a light on what your team wants to be. You're on or ahead of schedule, and defenses have to account for all base plays and counters, all runs and passes.

On standard downs, Wyoming actually wasn't bad. The Cowboys could have generated a few more big plays, but with running back Brian Hill rushing for 5.8 yards per carry and quarterback Cameron Coffman generating a 163.9 passer rating on first down, they were able to keep defenses guessing.

The problems arose the moment Wyoming fell off schedule. UW had one of the three worst passing-downs offenses in the country. On second-and-9, punter Ethan Wood might as well be warming up.

Coffman took sacks on 11 percent of his passing-downs attempts, and on third-and-4 or more, his passer rating fell to 121.1 -- not great considering the level of competition. And when he missed time with a knee injury, mobile backup Nick Smith had little to offer. His line on third-and-4 or more: 7-for-18, 29 yards. Yuck.

Passing downs are play-maker downs, and despite Hill, the Cowboys didn't have the horses. In 2016, Hill and virtually every member of the receiving corps return (and Shaun Wick might be granted another year of eligibility after missing much of 2015 with a concussion). But with Coffman gone, that means the training wheels are off for either Smith or Josh Allen, who missed most of the season with injury.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Cameron Coffman					152	241	1951	18	10	63.1%	24	9.1%	6.6
Nick Smith	6'4, 233	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8138	27	60	245	2	1	45.0%	6	9.1%	3.2
Josh Allen	6'5, 216	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8000	4	6	51	0	0	66.7%	0	0.0%	8.5
Chandler Garrett	6'5, 205	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8478

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Brian Hill	RB	6'1, 211	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	281	1631	6	5.8	5.9	41.3%	3	3
Shaun Wick	RB					43	97	1	2.3	4.7	20.9%	1	0
Nick Smith	QB	6'4, 233	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8138	39	194	2	5.0	3.3	43.6%	3	2
Cameron Coffman	QB					21	79	0	3.8	2.8	33.3%	3	1
Joshua Tapscott	RB	5'9, 213	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8020	17	86	0	5.1	6.0	35.3%	0	0
Kellen Overstreet	RB	5'11, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8214	16	84	1	5.3	4.3	37.5%	0	0
Nico Evans	RB	5'9, 187	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	14	56	0	4.0	4.9	28.6%	1	1
Tanner Gentry	WR	6'2, 201	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7623	5	48	0	9.6	4.6	80.0%	2	1

4. Potential in the run game

Hill and Wick were explosive, dreadfully inefficient backs in 2014. While Wick dealt with injury last fall, however, Hill turned into the real deal. He was big enough to handle a heavy load and as explosive as ever; plus, his efficiency numbers improved dramatically -- whereas only 24 percent of his carries gained at least five yards in 2014, 41 percent hit that mark last year.

While we wait to see if Wick is granted an extra year, or if sophomore Kellen Overstreet (a three-star recruit per the 247Sports Composite) can recover properly from a late-season ACL tear, Wyoming still has Hill, who averaged nearly 25 carries per game and caught 20 passes to boot.

Joshua Tapscott and Nico Evans both showed a little bit of competence in minimal opportunity, and they might be able to spell Hill a bit more even if Wick and Overstreet are unavailable. But Hill's return, combined with that of four of last year's offensive line starters (and four of the second-stringers), make it pretty easy to assume the run game remains a strength in 2016.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Jake Maulhardt	WR-X	6'6, 216	Sr.	NR	NR	94	57	648	60.6%	31.8%	6.9	59.6%	47.9%	1.33
Tanner Gentry	WR	6'2, 201	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7623	56	38	702	67.9%	18.9%	12.5	58.9%	55.4%	2.02
Jacob Hollister	TE	6'4, 230	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	44	26	355	59.1%	14.9%	8.1	63.6%	45.5%	1.59
James Price	WR-Z	6'2, 208	So.	NR	0.7583	24	12	143	50.0%	8.1%	6.0	37.5%	37.5%	1.54
Brian Hill	RB	6'1, 211	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	24	20	132	83.3%	8.1%	5.5	25.0%	33.3%	1.35
Joseph Parker	WR-Z	5'10, 182	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793	15	7	68	46.7%	5.1%	4.5	46.7%	33.3%	1.24
Shaun Wick	RB					7	5	49	71.4%	2.4%	7.0	14.3%	42.9%	1.54
Tyree Mayfield	TE	6'3, 223	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	6	4	21	66.7%	2.0%	3.5	33.3%	16.7%	2.35
Kellen Overstreet	RB	5'11, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8214	5	3	33	60.0%	1.7%	6.6	20.0%	40.0%	1.56
Josh Harshman	TE	6'3, 207	So.	NR	0.7783	3	2	39	66.7%	1.0%	13.0	100.0%	66.7%	2.12
Justice Murphy	WR	6'0, 180	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8423	3	1	17	33.3%	1.0%	5.7	33.3%	33.3%	1.91
Tayton Montgomery	WR					3	2	6	66.7%	1.0%	2.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.00
Dameko Doddles	WR					3	0	0	0.0%	1.0%	0.0	66.7%	0.0%	0.00
Tom Thornton	WR	6'1, 201	Sr.	2 stars	NR
C.J. Johnson	WR	6'2, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8199
John Okwoli	WR	6'2, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8322
Alec Stewart	TE	6'4, 240	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7974

5. Experience matters at WR, and Wyoming has it

The question heading is the same as it was last year: Can Wyoming pass when it needs to? Allen flashed potential but got hurt against EMU, and Smith proved an efficient runner while showing very little as a passer.

At the least, Wyoming's got all the experience in the world in the receiving corps. Seniors Jake Maulhardt and Tanner Gentry are back, as is tight end Jacob Hollister. Gentry was in the middle of a breakout year -- he was on pace for more than 1,100 receiving yards -- but missed the last five games of the year with a shoulder injury. (Basically every good Wyoming player but Hill got hurt last year, in case you haven't noticed.) Meanwhile, Maulhardt and Hollister are solid possession targets.

Without Gentry, there was no field-stretcher, and opponents were evidently able to key on Maulhardt and Hollister. A good portion of passing downs passes were directed at either well-covered leaders or freshmen like James Price and Joseph Parker, and the results were predictably poor.

If Gentry can stay upright, then the combination of seniors, sophomores, and newcomers like three-star redshirt freshman C.J. Johnson and incoming three-star John Okwoli could create a deep, solid receiving corps. And if Allen is indeed ready to man the quarterback position, maybe Brian Hill gets the support he needs and Wyoming can sustain some drives. It takes some ifs to make Wyoming's offense solid, but none of the ifs are particularly unrealistic.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	102.2	3.1	2.27	39.3%	72.5%	19.8%	64.7	8.0%	11.2%
Rank	64	32	122	60	30	79	119	114	115

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Chase Roullier	LG	6'4, 293	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7883	12	28	2015 2nd All-MWC
Ryan Cummings	LT	6'6, 314	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7483	12	19
Rafe Kiely	C					1	18
Charlie Renfree	C	6'3, 281	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7774	11	11
Troy Boyland	RG					10	10
Zach Wallace	RT	6'7, 265	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7908	10	10
Kaden Jackson	RG	6'2, 277	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793	2	2
Taylor Knestis	OT	6'5, 299	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7813	2	2
Brinkley Jolly	LT	6'5, 282	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685	0	0
Kurtis Stirneman	LG	6'5, 281	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7544	0	0
Cole Turner	OG	6'4, 267	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7744	0	0
Richard Bettencourt	OG	6'3, 280	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685	0	0
Dustin Weeks	OL	6'8, 265	Fr.	NR	0.8300
Jace Webb	OL	6'4, 295	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8033

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.28	78	IsoPPP+	85.9	114
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	47.7%	117	Succ. Rt. +	86.7	115
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	26.9	119	Off. FP+	26.9	113
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.1	121	Redzone S&P+	91.9	103
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	11.6		ACTUAL	10.0	-1.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	92	117	115	114
RUSHING	114	89	97	86
PASSING	27	122	124	116
Standard Downs		100	88	105
Passing Downs		125	128	117

Q1 Rk	115	1st Down Rk	107
Q2 Rk	100	2nd Down Rk	113
Q3 Rk	100	3rd Down Rk	104
Q4 Rk	78

6. Bohl is a good defensive coach

Just in case you needed a reminder.

Jimmies and Joes matter as much as Xs and Os. As Bohl put together the pieces he needed at NDSU, his Bison defense went from good to ridiculous. NDSU allowed 18.2 points per game in 2010, then 12.7 in 2011, then 11.5 in 2012, then 11.3 in 2013. His was never the most disruptive defense, but it was nearly mistake-free.

Bohl's Wyoming defenses have come up just a bit short of "mistake-free." The Cowboys played the semi-conservative defense Bohl perfected, but they did so with no pass rush and maybe the youngest secondary in the country last year. The result was predictable: Wyoming allowed a 161.5 passer rating, fifth-worst. The Cowboys turned every opposing QB into Cal's Jared Goff (161.3 rating in 2015).

In the same way that someone who finds $5 is no longer as broke, Wyoming will technically be far more experienced in the back this year. Eight of the top nine DBs are back, even if seven of them are now just sophomores. But the only decent pass rusher is gone, which could cause pretty obvious problems.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92.3	3.19	3.22	42.0%	79.5%	20.2%	58.6	4.6%	1.8%
Rank	96	109	64	104	121	60	125	80	128

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Eddie Yarbrough	DE					12	46.0	7.1%	10.5	7.0	0	1	1	0
Carl Granderson	DE	6'6, 200	So.	NR	0.8200	12	28.5	4.4%	6.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Siaosi Hala'api'api	DE					12	24.5	3.8%	4.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Sidney Malauulu	NT	6'3, 300	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726	12	14.0	2.2%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Uso Olive	DT					12	9.5	1.5%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Conner Cain	DT	6'4, 250	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7683	11	8.0	1.2%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Chase Appleby	NT	6'0, 255	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7500	7	8.0	1.2%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Prosser	DE	6'2, 197	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7845	12	5.0	0.8%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Dalton Fields	NT	6'3, 274	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719	12	3.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tavita Faaiu	DE					2	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jacob English	NT	6'5, 291	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7519
Youhanna Ghaifan	DT	6'4, 255	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726
Taniela Lolohea	DE	6'1, 245	Jr.	NR	NR
Ja'Chai Baker	DT	6'6, 260	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7800

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Lucas Wacha	MIKE	6'1, 214	Sr.	2 stars	0.7000	11	71.0	10.9%	6.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
D.J. May	SAM	5'11, 198	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8100	11	55.5	8.5%	4.5	1.0	0	10	1	1
Eric Nzeocha	MIKE	6'3, 218	Sr.	NR	0.7100	11	27.5	4.2%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Tim Kamana	WILL	5'11, 206	Jr.	2 stars	NR	12	23.5	3.6%	1.0	0.0	1	1	0	0
Will Tutein	WILL					11	5.5	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Devin McKenna	LB					4	3.5	0.5%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Luis Bach	LB	6'2, 208	So.	NR	NR	7	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Christian Irving	LB	5'11, 201	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7856
Jaylon Watson	LB	6'0, 237	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726
Jahmari Moore	LB	6'2, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793
Drew Harvey	LB	6'0, 210	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7785

7. Wacha and May need help

Wyoming recorded a paltry 10 sacks in 2015, and Eddie Yarbrough had seven of them. But despite a total lack of pressure on the quarterback, the Cowboys did show a decent ability to break into the backfield on run plays. They stopped 20 percent of rushes at or behind the line; six different defenders had at least 3.5 non-sack tackles for loss.

Four of those players are back, and two -- linebackers Lucas Wacha and D.J. May -- are proven senior linebackers. May is a disruptor against both run (3.5 non-sack TFLs) and pass (10 break-ups), and Wacha was one of the primary reasons why Wyoming was decent at preventing big plays on the ground.

They're going to need help, however. That four of last year's five primary tackles are back (two of which are sophomores, naturally) is exciting, but even if Bohl's defense isn't typically havoc-heavy, the Cowboys need another couple of play-makers up front, and it's unclear who that might be. I assume sophomore end Carl Granderson will turn into something pretty impressive as he continues to put on weight (he and fellow sophomore Kevin Prosser were both listed at 200 pounds or lighter last year ... as linemen!), but unless unrated JUCO transfer Taniela Lolohea becomes an immediate difference-maker, the pickings might be a little slim.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Andrew Wingard	FS	6'0, 194	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	12	102.5	15.8%	7	0	1	2	1	0
Marcus Epps	SS	6'0, 190	So.	NR	NR	11	71.0	10.9%	2	0	2	4	1	0
Robert Priester	CB	5'9, 180	Jr.	NR	0.7000	11	43.0	6.6%	2	0	1	3	1	1
Antonio Hull	CB	5'10, 188	So.	NR	0.7933	12	25.5	3.9%	0	0	0	6	0	0
C.J. Jennings	CB	5'10, 180	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7619	10	16.0	2.5%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Chavez Pownell Jr.	SS	5'11, 192	So.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	11	14.0	2.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tyran Finley	CB					6	9.0	1.4%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Adam Pilapil	FS	6'1, 194	So.	NR	NR	11	9.0	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Makransky	CB	5'10, 177	So.	NR	NR	8	8.0	1.2%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Xavier Lewis	FS	6'0, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719
Kevin Jackson	FS	6'2, 169	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793
Jalen Ortiz (UCLA)	CB	5'10, 192	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8722
Rico Gafford	CB	5'11, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7600
Tyler Hall	CB	5'10, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826

8. Freshmen become sophomores

If the pass rush at least doesn't get worse -- which would be almost literally impossible -- then the pass defense will almost definitely improve. Not only are all of last year's freshmen now sophomores, but UCLA transfer Jalen Ortiz and JUCO DB Rico Gafford could join the rotation as well. The odds of finding four solid contributors in the back are high.

The freshmen did show some play-making ability. Andrew Wingard was asked to play the role of "last remaining obstacle" on a lot of big plays, but he also found time to record seven tackles for loss and defense three passes. Safety Marcus Epps and corner Antonio Hull each defensed six as well.

Ortiz was mainly just a special teams contributor at UCLA, but his addition assures that Wyoming should meet a certain athletic baseline, and if the sophomores take the step forward typical for young players, this will be a unit that improves in 2016, then improves quite a bit more in 2017.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Ethan Wood	6'3, 176	Sr.	67	41.8	4	9	18	40.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Ethan Wood	6'3, 176	Sr.	43	62.4	16	3	37.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Tristan Bailey			28-31	1-4	25.0%	1-4	25.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
D.J. May	KR	5'11, 198	Sr.	24	26.3	0
Kellen Overstreet	KR	5'11, 200	So.	2	25.5	0
Tanner Gentry	PR	6'2, 201	Sr.	7	10.4	0
D.J. May	PR	5'11, 198	Sr.	4	5.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	120
Field Goal Efficiency	128
Punt Return Success Rate	58
Kick Return Success Rate	38
Punt Success Rate	84
Kickoff Success Rate	90

9. Find a kicker

Adding to all the other problems was this: freshman Tristan Bailey was perhaps the least successful place-kicker in FBS. He missed nine kicks -- three PATs, three short field goals, and three longer field goals -- before leaving following the season. If his replacement (whoever that becomes) can simply make a competent number of kicks, the special teams unit will improve, especially with the return of D.J. May and Tanner Gentry in the return game.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Northern Illinois	79	-7.9	32%
10-Sep	at Nebraska	26	-26.6	6%
17-Sep	UC Davis	NR	21.7	90%
24-Sep	at Eastern Michigan	121	-0.5	49%
1-Oct	at Colorado State	96	-8.7	31%
8-Oct	Air Force	80	-7.4	33%
22-Oct	at Nevada	91	-10.8	27%
29-Oct	Boise State	36	-16.4	17%
5-Nov	Utah State	73	-8.8	31%
12-Nov	at UNLV	114	-2.4	44%
19-Nov	San Diego State	55	-12.0	24%
26-Nov	at New Mexico	102	-6.7	35%
Projected wins: 4.2

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-30.8% (113)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	116 / 117
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-11 / -8.4
2015 TO Luck/Game	-1.1
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	71% (60%, 83%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	2.0 (0.0)

10. We'll find out a lot this year

Bohl played nearly 30 freshmen last year, and he didn't panic into signing a bunch of JUCOs in this last class. He's taken his time, and he proved at NDSU that a slow process can work. Last year's growing pains become this year's experience.

This job remains hard, though. Wyoming suffered a wave of decommits before National Signing Day, and Bohl and others are having to fight for their recruiting budgets. Granted, if he just keeps the current players in uniform and on track, the product should improve in 2016 and 2017.

Wyoming is projected 110th in this year's S&P+ ratings, and that sounds about right to me. Assuming the front seven is too thin to avoid mistakes, that the secondary is still too young to be truly strong, and that the passing game doesn't magically turn excellent, something in the neighborhood of No. 100 would make sense. It would represent only incremental improvement, but with very few senior starters outside of the receiving and linebacking corps, it would set the table for a solid 2017.

Wyoming is in the wrong division for quick growth. The Cowboys play only four opponents projected 100th or worse, and three are on the road. Even with projected improvement, the Cowboys are given a better than 50 percent chance of winning in just one game.

Bohl has stripped the house down to the foundation, and he should have enough pieces in place to begin dropping hints about what a good Wyoming might look like.