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1. Things spiral on you
Tim DeRuyter starts his fourth season in the middle of a contradiction: the roster is like what a first-year coach might inherit, talented and fast but young and thin. But DeRuyter is a fourth-year coach with a seat quite a bit warmer than it was last year. If he survives 2015, the roster could mature into a solid team again. But this could be a tough year.
I wrote in last year's preview that it makes sense when Fresno State is good. Unlike so many other Mountain West schools, you've got a lovely recruiting location, and your program has a history of solid results -- a couple of ranked finishes, seven seasons with double-digit wins, 21 bowl appearances, etc. In the time that current recruits have been alive, you've pulled some memorable upsets, and you've attended a bowl in 14 of 17 seasons.
This week's Mountain West previews have centered around hard jobs, and while no mid-major job is easy, this one is less hard. The urge to get impatient is high any time conference rivals with seemingly harder jobs finish ahead of the Bulldogs.
Fresno State began the DeRuyter era with 19 wins in 23 games; the Bulldogs reached as high as 15th in the polls in 2013, thanks to a 10-0 start. But since whipping New Mexico in late-November to move to within two games of a BCS bowl appearance, they are 10-19. 2013 finished with a shootout loss to San Jose State and a pantsing at the hands of USC in the Las Vegas Bowl. 2014 featured a division title, but also eight losses, seven by double digits.
In 2015, any hope for a quick rebound was dashed by attrition. Fresno State was to be led by a freshman quarterback, two freshman receivers and a thinned-out defense. An honest-to-god rebuild was going on, and 2014 wasn't a random blip.
You don't often survive a rebuild, but so far DeRuyter has. He was unable to oversee a smooth transition from the Derek Carr teams to the future, but he's in a job that has been rewarded by patience.
Only three men have led Fresno State in the last 36 seasons. Jim Sweeney was in charge from 1980-96, at one point going 8-4 or better in eight of nine seasons (1985-93) before fading to 14-21-1 over his final three years. Pat Hill took over in 1997, and after two mediocre seasons, he began a long run of solid play. Fresno won seven or more games 11 times in 12 years between 1999 and 2010.
The Bulldogs never fulfilled the promise of 2001, which saw them in the top 10 thanks to season-opening wins over Colorado, Oregon State and Wisconsin; Boise State came along and stole a good portion of Fresno State's thunder. But under Hill, this team was physical, often explosive and always competitive.
Hill survived a 4-8 blip in 2006 and responded by averaging eight wins over the next four seasons. And after another four-win campaign, DeRuyter took over.
That he's got a chance to dig out of a self-created hole is admirable in many ways. That just doesn't happen much in team sports. We'll see if Fresno's patience pays off; DeRuyter's Bulldogs are more experienced than last year, but they have to replace just enough pieces that improvement isn't guaranteed. DeRuyter has brought in two new coordinators and a new mentality, and the changes take hold, he might last a while.
2015 Schedule & Results
|Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 5-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 103 | Final S&P+ Rk: 100|
|Date||Opponent||Opp. F/+ Rk||Score||W-L||Percentile
|12-Sep||at Ole Miss||5||21-73||L||3%||0%||-18.4||-23.0|
|26-Sep||at San Jose State||89||23-49||L||16%||3%||-17.5||-21.5|
|3-Oct||at San Diego State||43||7-21||L||22%||1%||-8.1||-5.0|
|24-Oct||at Air Force||63||14-42||L||15%||0%||-10.6||-10.5|
|Points Per Game||22.3||107||38.1||119|
2. Up, down, up, down
That Fresno State went 3-9 last year wasn't surprising. The Bulldogs were starting over in so many areas, particularly at QB. But the clear upside had to make the down times twice as frustrating.
On a few occasions, Fresno State played like a team good enough to challenge in the Mountain West. But not only were the good performances usually followed by a dud, the good performances were done in by bad breaks or silly mistakes.
They played Utah closer than the 21-point margin would indicate (Utah had two return touchdowns and only outgained FS by 15 yards). They easily outgained an improving UNLV and created more scoring chances in a game made closer by a fumble and a couple of missed field goals (they missed as many in this game as they missed the rest of the season). They led Colorado State 24-10 and outgained the Rams by 52 yards but gave up two return touchdowns in a three-point loss.
Fresno could have easily won five games if not for return touchdowns. You can spin that into a positive. But it's harder to spin this: In their other seven games, they were outscored by an average of 46-15.
|FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE|
|Raw Category||Rk||Opp. Adj. Category||Rk|
|EFFICIENCY||Succ. Rt.||34.6%||120||Succ. Rt. +||84.1||118|
|FIELD POSITION||Def. Avg. FP||28.8||45||Def. FP+||29.0||55|
|FINISHING DRIVES||Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity||4.0||103||Redzone S&P+||90.4||109|
|Q1 Rk||117||1st Down Rk||117|
|Q2 Rk||100||2nd Down Rk||119|
|Q3 Rk||122||3rd Down Rk||112|
3. An Eric Kiesau offense
While it's hard to remain head coach after going 9-17 in two years, it's almost impossible to remain the coordinator when your offense has fallen apart.
After ranking 33rd in Off. S&P+ in 2012 and 17th in 2013, the production of Dave Schramm's offense cratered when Carr left. The Bulldogs ranked just 96th in 2014 and 110th last year. A revolving door at quarterback didn't help, but DeRuyter decided some new blood might be a good thing.
DeRuyter chose Eric Kiesau as Schramm's replacement. Like those actors whose names or faces you know but can't quite place, Kiesau is a That Guy of college football. He coached for Jeff Tedford at California, then ended up on Dan Hawkins' Colorado staff, eventually as coordinator. After another year at Cal, he spent two years as Steve Sarkisian's coordinator at Washington. He bounced to Kansas for one season, briefly as coordinator after Charlie Weis had been fired. Then, to wash off the Kansas stink, he undertook the Alabama Coaching Rehabilitation Program, serving as an analyst for Nick Saban's 2015 national champion squad.
Kiesau's track record is mixed, but there have been high points. After years of struggle, his last Colorado offense bounced up to 63rd in Off. S&P+, and his second Washington offense ranked 26th. Both of those had bellcow running backs -- CU's Rodney Stewart rushed for 1,136 yards in 2010, and UW's Bishop Sankey rushed for 1,870 in 2013 -- and at first glance he doesn't appear to have that in Fresno. But he's attempting to instill physicality that last year's more finesse-based offense did not have.
Of course, be it through finesse or power, step one to an offensive rebound will be finding a quarterback.
Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.
|Kilton Anderson||6'2, 217||So.||2 stars (5.3)||0.8023||78||157||817||2||5||49.7%||10||6.0%||4.5|
|Chason Virgil||6'1, 184||RSFr.||3 stars (5.7)||0.8697||31||56||298||3||3||55.4%||1||1.8%||5.2|
|Ford Childress||6'5, 230||Sr.||3 stars (5.7)||NR||19||34||159||2||2||55.9%||0||0.0%||4.7|
|Quentin Davis||6'0, 202||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8399|
4. A revolving door
As the saying goes, if you've got four quarterbacks, you've got no quarterbacks.
- Zack Greenlee began 2015 as Fresno's preferred QB, but he completed just 14 of 32 passes against Abilene Christian.
- Freshman Chason Virgil got much of the work against Ole Miss and looked okay (12-for-18 for 140 yards, but with two picks), but he got hurt in the second half of the Utah loss and was gone for the season.
- Greenlee was suspended a game for underage drinking, so West Virginia transfer Ford Childress took over against SJSU and was mostly ineffective.
- Greenlee returned against SDSU and was mostly ineffective.
- Redshirt freshman Kilton Anderson got his chance and was mostly ineffective.
- Greenlee returned with schizophrenic play: two picks in nine passes against Nevada, six touchdown passes in a nearly perfect performance against Hawaii, then a 14-for-41 line with three picks against BYU.
- Anderson was back against Colorado State and, despite the closeness of the game, was mostly ineffective.
Yuck. Despite a decent run game, Fresno's offense never had a chance. The Bulldogs ranked 125th of 128 FBS teams in Passing S&P+ (just a slight problem for an offense that wanted to pass first), and the fact that the receiving corps was nearly as inexperienced didn't help.
Priority No. 1 is figuring out QB. Greenlee left, and it appears Virgil will have the first crack at the job. On paper, he was the least bad of the bunch.
|Kilton Anderson||QB||6'2, 217||So.||2 stars (5.3)||0.8023||41||278||5||6.8||6.7||48.8%||2||1|
|Dejonte O'Neal||RB||5'7, 166||So.||NR||NR||16||56||0||3.5||1.8||31.3%||0||0|
|Zack Greenlee||QB||6'1, 216||Jr.||3 stars (5.6)||0.8777||15||92||0||6.1||3.2||60.0%||1||0|
|Jamire Jordan||WR-H||5'10, 168||So.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7894||10||55||1||5.5||4.2||60.0%||2||0|
|Chason Virgil||QB||6'1, 184||So.||3 stars (5.7)||0.8697||8||56||0||7.0||1.8||87.5%||2||2|
|Bryson Oglesby||RB||6'0, 190||RSFr.||3 stars (5.7)||0.8509|
|Dontel James||RB||5'11, 217||Jr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.7667|
|Justin Rice||RB||6'2, 201||Fr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.8260|
|Deonte Perry||RB||5'11, 169||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8315|
|Rivals||247 Comp.||Targets||Catches||Yards||Catch Rate||Target
|Jamire Jordan||WR-H||5'10, 168||So.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7894||94||46||540||48.9%||25.5%||5.7||52.1%||30.9%||1.73|
|KeeSean Johnson||WR-X||6'1, 190||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7556||64||37||337||57.8%||17.3%||5.3||54.7%||39.1%||1.25|
|Da'Mari Scott||WR-Z||6'0, 211||Sr.||3 stars (5.6)||0.8313||37||24||364||64.9%||10.0%||9.8||37.8%||48.6%||1.94|
|Chad Olsen||TE||6'5, 236||Jr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7633||35||19||229||54.3%||9.5%||6.5||54.3%||34.3%||1.79|
|Delvon Hardaway||WR-Z||6'0, 193||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8126||26||9||88||34.6%||7.0%||3.4||61.5%||23.1%||1.38|
|Kyle Riddering||TE||6'4, 242||So.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7908||3||2||7||66.7%||0.8%||2.3||66.7%||33.3%||0.58|
|Michael Martens||WR-Y||6'2, 211||Sr.||NR||NR||3||0||0||0.0%||0.8%||0.0||100.0%||0.0%||0.00|
|Justin Allen||WR-H||5'11, 185||So.||NR||NR|
|Darrell Fuery||WR||5'11, 202||Jr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7533|
|Jared Rice||TE||6'4, 214||RSFr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.8389|
|Donte Coleman||TE||6'3, 220||Fr.||3 stars (5.6)||0.8510|
5. Youth becomes experience
It's going to be difficult for Kiesau to establish a strong run game this year. The Bulldogs are replacing last year's top three backs (including Waller, the go-to guy) and three three-year starters on the offensive line. Returning running backs have combined for 16 career carries (all from Dejonte O'Neal).
Granted, a fresh start can be a good thing, but this is extreme. There appears to be a good base of athleticism -- redshirt freshman Bryson Oglesby was a star of the 2015 class, JUCO transfer Dontel James was a three-star recruit per Rivals and two incoming freshmen were three-stars.
And while it's possible that up to three JUCO transfers, two redshirt freshmen and a true freshman get involved on the offensive line two-deep, at least a few were well-regarded recruits. The run game is undergoing a total reboot, but there's enough potential to think it could get some traction by 2017.
At the very least, the passing game will improve in 2016. It almost literally can't be worse, but if Virgil (or anyone else) can stick at QB, he'll have a far more experienced receiving corps. Sophomores Jamire Jordan and KeeSean Johnson are back after getting thrown into the deep end, and the return of senior Aaron Peck from a foot injury gives the Bulldogs a big-play threat they didn't have.
So while FS will probably have to pass more than it prefers, that might not be the worst thing.
|Rivals||247 Comp.||2015 Starts||Career Starts||Honors/Notes|
|Alex Fifita||LT||12||36||2015 2nd All-MWC|
|Aaron Mitchell||LG||6'2, 300||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7806||12||12|
|Jacob Vazquez||LG||6'3, 287||Sr.||NR||NR||8||8|
|Micah St. Andrew||RG||6'3, 327||So.||NR||NR||4||4|
|David Patterson||LT||6'4, 288||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7926||0||0|
|Zack Kinninger||RT||6'5, 299||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8081||0||0|
|Isaiah Trevino||OL||6'5, 357||RSFr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.8414|
|Donnie Greene||OL||6'2, 283||RSFr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.8289|
|Ryan Popolizio||OL||6'6, 310||Jr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.7900|
|Shane Gama||OL||6'4, 300||Jr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7533|
|Christian Cronk||OL||6'5, 290||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8059|
|Quireo Woodley||OL||6'2, 282||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8381|
|FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE|
|Raw Category||Rk||Opp. Adj. Category||Rk|
|EFFICIENCY||Succ. Rt.||46.2%||109||Succ. Rt. +||91.3||98|
|FIELD POSITION||Off. Avg. FP||31.5||35||Off. FP+||31.2||36|
|FINISHING DRIVES||Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity||4.8||102||Redzone S&P+||92.7||101|
|Q1 Rk||61||1st Down Rk||101|
|Q2 Rk||85||2nd Down Rk||68|
|Q3 Rk||121||3rd Down Rk||118|
6. A great pass rush doesn't matter if no one has to pass
DeRuyter took on a lot of underdog coaching roles; he served as defensive coordinator at Ohio (twice), Navy and Air Force before doing significant damage as Texas A&M's coordinator in 2010-11. Everywhere he went, he was able to install a disruptive attack, usually despite outmanned personnel. He knows how to get defenders into the backfield.
To some degree, that remained the case in 2015. Fresno State once again boasted one of the nation's better pass rushes. The Bulldgos ranked 11th in Adj. Sack Rate, thanks mostly to two guys: end Claudell Louis and outside linebacker Ejiro Ederaine. The two combined for 14 sacks while a few other linebackers pitched in two or three each.
The problem was that this was the only thing the defense did well. Fresno State had no disruptive presence against the run -- 113th in stuff rate, 114th in power success rate -- and if the quarterback didn't get sacked, he was almost assured of finding an open receiver.
Quite a few opponents had lovely passing days against Fresno State -- Ole Miss, San Jose State, San Diego State, Utah State, Air Force, Nevada and BYU all recorded a passer rating of at least 160 (SJSU hit 222) -- but most didn't feel the need to throw at all. They just ran and ran and ran and ran. Opponents ran 69 percent of the time on standard downs (fifth-most in the country) and 40 percent on passing downs (12th). Part of this could be because opponents were usually leading, but since these numbers filter out garbage time, that only explains so much.
|Rivals||247 Comp.||GP||Tackles||% of Team||TFL||Sacks||Int||PBU||FF||FR|
|Nathan Madsen||NG||6'4, 290||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7633||11||14.5||2.0%||3.5||1.5||0||0||0||0|
|Tyler Puccio||NG||6'1, 271||So.||NR||NR||10||9.5||1.3%||1.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Kyle Hendrickson||DE||6'4, 266||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7856||12||7.5||1.0%||0.5||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Nick Kristofors||DE||6'3, 268||Sr.||NR||NR||12||6.0||0.8%||0.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Ryan Steele||NG||6'0, 285||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8194||8||2.0||0.3%||0.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Mason Bradley||DE||6'3, 260||RSFr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7793|
|Austin Vaimili||DE||6'5, 265||Jr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.8117|
|Malik Forrester||NG||6'1, 315||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7859|
|Patrick Belony||NG||6'2, 309||So.||3 stars (5.5)||NR|
|Elijah Piper||NG||6'3, 308||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8115|
|Rivals||247 Comp.||GP||Tackles||% of Team||TFL||Sacks||Int||PBU||FF||FR|
|Jeff Camilli||ILB||6'2, 255||Sr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7993||11||55.5||7.7%||1.0||0.0||2||2||0||0|
|James Bailey||OLB||6'1, 202||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8202||12||39.5||5.5%||2.0||0.0||0||2||0||0|
|Nela Otukolo||ILB||5'11, 234||So.||2 stars (5.3)||0.8187||8||20.5||2.8%||3.5||2.0||0||0||0||0|
|Brandon Hughes||OLB||6'3, 223||Sr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7000||8||20.5||2.8%||4.0||3.0||0||0||0||1|
|Tobenna Okeke||OLB||6'2, 237||Jr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7819||9||17.5||2.4%||3.5||1.0||0||0||0||0|
|Robert Stanley||ILB||6'2, 234||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8056||9||15.5||2.2%||0.0||0.0||0||1||0||0|
|George Helmuth||ILB||6'1, 221||So.||NR||NR||12||14.0||1.9%||0.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Justin Green||OLB||6'4, 201||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7926||10||13.0||1.8%||4.0||3.0||0||0||1||0|
|Stephen Van Hook||OLB||6'1, 240||Jr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.8184|
|Trent Soechting||OLB||6'3, 207||Jr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.7900|
|Lukas McKenzie||OLB||6'1, 184||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8115|
|Jeffrey Allison||ILB||6'0, 260||Fr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.8007|
|Tainoa Foster||OLB||6'2, 192||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7893|
7. Losing the wrong people
To inject life into the defense, DeRuyter brought in a seasoned hand. Lorenzo Ward spent seven seasons on Steve Spurrier's staff at South Carolina, and when he had attacking pieces up front, he did a pretty good job of deploying them. (Those pieces disappeared after 2013.)
Improvement will be tricky. A front seven that was unintentionally passive must now replace all three players who logged more than four tackles for loss each.
But there is at least potential among last year's backup linebackers and an influx of JUCO transfers. DeRuyter signed four JUCOs here -- three linemen (including three-star end Austin Vaimili) and a linebacker -- along with three-star freshmen Elijah Piper (nose guard), Lukas McKenzie (OLB) and Jeffrey Allison (ILB).
Combined with sophomore OLB James Bailey and veteran backups like Tobenna Okeke (3.5 TFLs last year) and Brandon Hughes (four), maybe there's enough play-making potential for a bit of a rebound.
There BETTER be, because with two new starting safeties, the back four might be fragile.
|Rivals||247 Comp.||GP||Tackles||% of Team||TFL||Sacks||Int||PBU||FF||FR|
|Tyquwan Glass||CB||5'11, 185||Sr.||NR||NR||12||55.0||7.6%||1.5||0||4||6||0||0|
|Jamal Ellis||CB||5'10, 179||Sr.||NR||0.7000||12||40.0||5.6%||4.5||0||0||8||0||1|
|Dalen Jones||S||6'1, 201||Sr.||3 stars (5.6)||0.8407||12||17.5||2.4%||1||0||0||1||0||0|
|Stratton Brown||SS||6'2, 196||Sr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7819||11||15.5||2.2%||0.5||0||0||0||2||0|
|DeShawn Potts||FS||6'0, 190||So.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7633||8||14.5||2.0%||0||0||0||2||0||0|
|Anthoula Kelly||DB||5'10, 192||So.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7719||9||13.0||1.8%||0||0||0||0||0||0|
|Alan Wright||S||6'0, 186||Sr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8059||12||10.0||1.4%||0||0||0||0||0||0|
|Malcolm Washington||CB||6'2, 179||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7759||12||7.0||1.0%||0||0||0||4||0||0|
|Mike Bell||DB||6'2, 190||RSFr.||3 stars (5.6)||0.8482|
|Jalen Smith||DB||5'11, 181||RSFr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7916|
|Juju Hughes||DB||5'10, 172||Fr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.8019|
|Jaron Bryant||S||6'1, 176||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7959|
8. Stats give mixed signals in the secondary
In seniors Tyquwan Glass and Jamal Ellis, Fresno State boasts two veteran cornerbacks who have proven they can make plays. The duo combined for six tackles for loss, four interceptions and 14 break-ups last year. But knowing what we know about the Bulldogs' pass defense -- that, despite a strong pass rush and these aggressive corners, they still got burned a lot -- that tells us that either safety was a weakness, that the corners gave up as many plays as they made, or both.
In that sense, it might not be the end of the world that starting safeties Shannon Edwards and Charles Washington are gone. Neither was effective as a ball hawk. Still, that doesn't mean the replacements are any better. The hope has to be that a sophomore like DeShawn Potts is ready, and that with a sustained starting role, former star recruit Dalen Jones is ready to break out.
DeRuyter has been in charge of so many good defenses that it's surprising when he isn't. Still, Fresno has ranked below 80th in Def. S&P+ for three straight years, and there's enough turnover to make you wonder how much improvement is possible in 2016.
|Kody Kroening||5'10, 150||Jr.||31-33||5-7||71.4%||1-1||100.0%|
|Jimmy Camacho||5'10, 160||Jr.||0-0||1-2||50.0%||1-2||50.0%|
|Da'Mari Scott||KR||6'0, 211||Sr.||26||22.3||0|
|Jamire Jordan||KR||5'10, 168||So.||16||19.7||0|
|Da'Mari Scott||PR||6'0, 211||Sr.||5||6.4||0|
|Tyquwan Glass||PR||5'11, 185||Sr.||4||18.8||0|
|Special Teams S&P+||76|
|Field Goal Efficiency||89|
|Punt Return Success Rate||3|
|Kick Return Success Rate||101|
|Punt Success Rate||40|
|Kickoff Success Rate||28|
9. Losing two good legs at once
Garrett Swanson was instrumental in Fresno State posting top-40 efficiency ratings in both punts and kickoffs. His loss is a double blow of sorts. The return of place-kicker Kody Kroening and return man Da'Mari Scott assures some continuity, but without Swanson, the Bulldogs would have ranked a lot worse than 76th in Special Teams S&P+.
2016 Schedule & Projection Factors
|Date||Opponent||Proj. S&P+ Rk||Proj. Margin||Win Probability|
|15-Oct||San Diego State||55||-5.5||38%|
|22-Oct||at Utah State||73||-9.2||30%|
|5-Nov||at Colorado State||96||-2.1||45%|
|26-Nov||San Jose State||92||3.4||58%|
|Projected wins: 5.8|
|Five-Year F/+ Rk||-8.8% (77)|
|2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk||72 / 78|
|2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*||-2 / -2.3|
|2015 TO Luck/Game||+0.1|
|Returning Production (Off. / Def.)||76% (89%, 62%)|
|2015 Second-order wins (difference)||4.3 (-1.3)|
10. So many tossups
Because experience is more valuable in the passing game than the running game, Fresno's experience numbers are solid. Combined with California recruiting, the S&P+ projections are kind to the Bulldogs, projecting a slight jump after back-to-back No. 100 rankings. And if quarterback is no longer a liability, a bigger jump is possible.
As with the schedule of so many teams in the Mountain West, a little jump could go a long way. Fresno State is given between a 38 and 59 percent chance of winning in seven games, with two likely wins and three likely losses. That's a blank canvas, and it could result in 4-8 or 8-4 with just a few shifts.