Fresno State football is the 2016 Mountain West's biggest wild card

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1. Things spiral on you

Tim DeRuyter starts his fourth season in the middle of a contradiction: the roster is like what a first-year coach might inherit, talented and fast but young and thin. But DeRuyter is a fourth-year coach with a seat quite a bit warmer than it was last year. If he survives 2015, the roster could mature into a solid team again. But this could be a tough year.

-- my 2015 Fresno State guide

I wrote in last year's preview that it makes sense when Fresno State is good. Unlike so many other Mountain West schools, you've got a lovely recruiting location, and your program has a history of solid results -- a couple of ranked finishes, seven seasons with double-digit wins, 21 bowl appearances, etc. In the time that current recruits have been alive, you've pulled some memorable upsets, and you've attended a bowl in 14 of 17 seasons.

This week's Mountain West previews have centered around hard jobs, and while no mid-major job is easy, this one is less hard. The urge to get impatient is high any time conference rivals with seemingly harder jobs finish ahead of the Bulldogs.

Fresno State began the DeRuyter era with 19 wins in 23 games; the Bulldogs reached as high as 15th in the polls in 2013, thanks to a 10-0 start. But since whipping New Mexico in late-November to move to within two games of a BCS bowl appearance, they are 10-19. 2013 finished with a shootout loss to San Jose State and a pantsing at the hands of USC in the Las Vegas Bowl. 2014 featured a division title, but also eight losses, seven by double digits.

In 2015, any hope for a quick rebound was dashed by attrition. Fresno State was to be led by a freshman quarterback, two freshman receivers and a thinned-out defense. An honest-to-god rebuild was going on, and 2014 wasn't a random blip.

You don't often survive a rebuild, but so far DeRuyter has. He was unable to oversee a smooth transition from the Derek Carr teams to the future, but he's in a job that has been rewarded by patience.

Only three men have led Fresno State in the last 36 seasons. Jim Sweeney was in charge from 1980-96, at one point going 8-4 or better in eight of nine seasons (1985-93) before fading to 14-21-1 over his final three years. Pat Hill took over in 1997, and after two mediocre seasons, he began a long run of solid play. Fresno won seven or more games 11 times in 12 years between 1999 and 2010.

The Bulldogs never fulfilled the promise of 2001, which saw them in the top 10 thanks to season-opening wins over Colorado, Oregon State and Wisconsin; Boise State came along and stole a good portion of Fresno State's thunder. But under Hill, this team was physical, often explosive and always competitive.

Hill survived a 4-8 blip in 2006 and responded by averaging eight wins over the next four seasons. And after another four-win campaign, DeRuyter took over.

That he's got a chance to dig out of a self-created hole is admirable in many ways. That just doesn't happen much in team sports. We'll see if Fresno's patience pays off; DeRuyter's Bulldogs are more experienced than last year, but they have to replace just enough pieces that improvement isn't guaranteed. DeRuyter has brought in two new coordinators and a new mentality, and the changes take hold, he might last a while.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 5-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 103 | Final S&P+ Rk: 100
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
3-Sep	Abilene Christian	N/A	34-13	W	61%	99%	+10.1
12-Sep	at Ole Miss	5	21-73	L	3%	0%	-18.4	-23.0
19-Sep	Utah	22	24-45	L	50%	36%	-6.6	-6.0
26-Sep	at San Jose State	89	23-49	L	16%	3%	-17.5	-21.5
3-Oct	at San Diego State	43	7-21	L	22%	1%	-8.1	-5.0
10-Oct	Utah State	53	14-56	L	3%	0%	-28.8	-30.5
16-Oct	UNLV	105	31-28	W	69%	93%	+11.8	+9.5
24-Oct	at Air Force	63	14-42	L	15%	0%	-10.6	-10.5
5-Nov	Nevada	97	16-30	L	31%	18%	-12.7	-10.0
14-Nov	at Hawaii	120	42-14	W	79%	99%	+30.8	+32.5
21-Nov	at BYU	35	10-52	L	6%	0%	-18.7	-16.0
28-Nov	Colorado State	86	31-34	L	75%	84%	+7.4	+6.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	21.2	110	30.9	85
Points Per Game	22.3	107	38.1	119

2. Up, down, up, down

That Fresno State went 3-9 last year wasn't surprising. The Bulldogs were starting over in so many areas, particularly at QB. But the clear upside had to make the down times twice as frustrating.

On a few occasions, Fresno State played like a team good enough to challenge in the Mountain West. But not only were the good performances usually followed by a dud, the good performances were done in by bad breaks or silly mistakes.

They played Utah closer than the 21-point margin would indicate (Utah had two return touchdowns and only outgained FS by 15 yards). They easily outgained an improving UNLV and created more scoring chances in a game made closer by a fumble and a couple of missed field goals (they missed as many in this game as they missed the rest of the season). They led Colorado State 24-10 and outgained the Rams by 52 yards but gave up two return touchdowns in a three-point loss.

Fresno could have easily won five games if not for return touchdowns. You can spin that into a positive. But it's harder to spin this: In their other seven games, they were outscored by an average of 46-15.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.19	98	IsoPPP+	79.9	117
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	34.6%	120	Succ. Rt. +	84.1	118
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.8	45	Def. FP+	29.0	55
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.0	103	Redzone S&P+	90.4	109
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.2		ACTUAL	22	+2.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	122	118	118	117
RUSHING	105	78	89	68
PASSING	107	125	125	126
Standard Downs		120	120	120
Passing Downs		99	109	95

Q1 Rk	117	1st Down Rk	117
Q2 Rk	100	2nd Down Rk	119
Q3 Rk	122	3rd Down Rk	112
Q4 Rk	100

3. An Eric Kiesau offense

While it's hard to remain head coach after going 9-17 in two years, it's almost impossible to remain the coordinator when your offense has fallen apart.

After ranking 33rd in Off. S&P+ in 2012 and 17th in 2013, the production of Dave Schramm's offense cratered when Carr left. The Bulldogs ranked just 96th in 2014 and 110th last year. A revolving door at quarterback didn't help, but DeRuyter decided some new blood might be a good thing.

DeRuyter chose Eric Kiesau as Schramm's replacement. Like those actors whose names or faces you know but can't quite place, Kiesau is a That Guy of college football. He coached for Jeff Tedford at California, then ended up on Dan Hawkins' Colorado staff, eventually as coordinator. After another year at Cal, he spent two years as Steve Sarkisian's coordinator at Washington. He bounced to Kansas for one season, briefly as coordinator after Charlie Weis had been fired. Then, to wash off the Kansas stink, he undertook the Alabama Coaching Rehabilitation Program, serving as an analyst for Nick Saban's 2015 national champion squad.

Kiesau's track record is mixed, but there have been high points. After years of struggle, his last Colorado offense bounced up to 63rd in Off. S&P+, and his second Washington offense ranked 26th. Both of those had bellcow running backs -- CU's Rodney Stewart rushed for 1,136 yards in 2010, and UW's Bishop Sankey rushed for 1,870 in 2013 -- and at first glance he doesn't appear to have that in Fresno. But he's attempting to instill physicality that last year's more finesse-based offense did not have.

Of course, be it through finesse or power, step one to an offensive rebound will be finding a quarterback.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Kilton Anderson	6'2, 217	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8023	78	157	817	2	5	49.7%	10	6.0%	4.5
Zack Greenlee					74	156	866	13	6	47.4%	12	7.1%	4.6
Chason Virgil	6'1, 184	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8697	31	56	298	3	3	55.4%	1	1.8%	5.2
Ford Childress	6'5, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	NR	19	34	159	2	2	55.9%	0	0.0%	4.7
Quentin Davis	6'0, 202	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8399

4. A revolving door

As the saying goes, if you've got four quarterbacks, you've got no quarterbacks.

• Zack Greenlee began 2015 as Fresno's preferred QB, but he completed just 14 of 32 passes against Abilene Christian.
• Freshman Chason Virgil got much of the work against Ole Miss and looked okay (12-for-18 for 140 yards, but with two picks), but he got hurt in the second half of the Utah loss and was gone for the season.
• Greenlee was suspended a game for underage drinking, so West Virginia transfer Ford Childress took over against SJSU and was mostly ineffective.
• Greenlee returned against SDSU and was mostly ineffective.
• Redshirt freshman Kilton Anderson got his chance and was mostly ineffective.
• Greenlee returned with schizophrenic play: two picks in nine passes against Nevada, six touchdown passes in a nearly perfect performance against Hawaii, then a 14-for-41 line with three picks against BYU.
• Anderson was back against Colorado State and, despite the closeness of the game, was mostly ineffective.

Yuck. Despite a decent run game, Fresno's offense never had a chance. The Bulldogs ranked 125th of 128 FBS teams in Passing S&P+ (just a slight problem for an offense that wanted to pass first), and the fact that the receiving corps was nearly as inexperienced didn't help.

Priority No. 1 is figuring out QB. Greenlee left, and it appears Virgil will have the first crack at the job. On paper, he was the least bad of the bunch.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Marteze Waller	RB					228	920	5	4.0	5.0	33.3%	0	0
Dustin Garrison	RB					54	294	2	5.4	10.7	27.8%	0	0
Kilton Anderson	QB	6'2, 217	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8023	41	278	5	6.8	6.7	48.8%	2	1
Malique Micenheimer	RB					18	59	0	3.3	4.7	22.2%	0	0
Dejonte O'Neal	RB	5'7, 166	So.	NR	NR	16	56	0	3.5	1.8	31.3%	0	0
Zack Greenlee	QB	6'1, 216	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8777	15	92	0	6.1	3.2	60.0%	1	0
Jamire Jordan	WR-H	5'10, 168	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7894	10	55	1	5.5	4.2	60.0%	2	0
Chason Virgil	QB	6'1, 184	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8697	8	56	0	7.0	1.8	87.5%	2	2
Bryson Oglesby	RB	6'0, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8509
Dontel James	RB	5'11, 217	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7667
Justin Rice	RB	6'2, 201	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8260
Deonte Perry	RB	5'11, 169	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8315

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Jamire Jordan	WR-H	5'10, 168	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7894	94	46	540	48.9%	25.5%	5.7	52.1%	30.9%	1.73
KeeSean Johnson	WR-X	6'1, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7556	64	37	337	57.8%	17.3%	5.3	54.7%	39.1%	1.25
Aaron Peck (2014)	WR	6'3, 213	Sr.	NR	0.7100	59	32	419	54.2%	12.3%	7.1	54.2%	N/A	N/A
Josiah Blandin	WR-X					38	22	221	57.9%	10.3%	5.8	44.7%	47.4%	1.15
Da'Mari Scott	WR-Z	6'0, 211	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8313	37	24	364	64.9%	10.0%	9.8	37.8%	48.6%	1.94
Chad Olsen	TE	6'5, 236	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7633	35	19	229	54.3%	9.5%	6.5	54.3%	34.3%	1.79
Marteze Waller	RB					28	20	151	71.4%	7.6%	5.4	42.9%	25.0%	1.97
Delvon Hardaway	WR-Z	6'0, 193	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8126	26	9	88	34.6%	7.0%	3.4	61.5%	23.1%	1.38
Justin Johnson	WR-Y					10	5	79	50.0%	2.7%	7.9	50.0%	50.0%	1.29
Malique Micenheimer	RB					10	9	51	90.0%	2.7%	5.1	80.0%	50.0%	0.86
Keyan Williams	WR					10	7	34	70.0%	2.7%	3.4	80.0%	30.0%	0.91
Dustin Garrison	RB					5	2	9	40.0%	1.4%	1.8	20.0%	0.0%	0.00
Kyle Riddering	TE	6'4, 242	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7908	3	2	7	66.7%	0.8%	2.3	66.7%	33.3%	0.58
Michael Martens	WR-Y	6'2, 211	Sr.	NR	NR	3	0	0	0.0%	0.8%	0.0	100.0%	0.0%	0.00
Justin Allen	WR-H	5'11, 185	So.	NR	NR
Darrell Fuery	WR	5'11, 202	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7533
Jared Rice	TE	6'4, 214	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8389
Donte Coleman	TE	6'3, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8510

5. Youth becomes experience

It's going to be difficult for Kiesau to establish a strong run game this year. The Bulldogs are replacing last year's top three backs (including Waller, the go-to guy) and three three-year starters on the offensive line. Returning running backs have combined for 16 career carries (all from Dejonte O'Neal).

Granted, a fresh start can be a good thing, but this is extreme. There appears to be a good base of athleticism -- redshirt freshman Bryson Oglesby was a star of the 2015 class, JUCO transfer Dontel James was a three-star recruit per Rivals and two incoming freshmen were three-stars.

And while it's possible that up to three JUCO transfers, two redshirt freshmen and a true freshman get involved on the offensive line two-deep, at least a few were well-regarded recruits. The run game is undergoing a total reboot, but there's enough potential to think it could get some traction by 2017.

At the very least, the passing game will improve in 2016. It almost literally can't be worse, but if Virgil (or anyone else) can stick at QB, he'll have a far more experienced receiving corps. Sophomores Jamire Jordan and KeeSean Johnson are back after getting thrown into the deep end, and the return of senior Aaron Peck from a foot injury gives the Bulldogs a big-play threat they didn't have.

So while FS will probably have to pass more than it prefers, that might not be the worst thing.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	89.8	2.46	2.88	36.5%	61.8%	26.1%	84.0	4.8%	10.0%
Rank	111	120	101	92	92	125	89	64	106

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Alex Fifita	LT					12	36	2015 2nd All-MWC
Justin Northern	RT					12	39
Bo Bonnheim	C					12	33
Aaron Mitchell	LG	6'2, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7806	12	12
Jacob Vazquez	LG	6'3, 287	Sr.	NR	NR	8	8
Micah St. Andrew	RG	6'3, 327	So.	NR	NR	4	4
David Patterson	LT	6'4, 288	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926	0	0
Zack Kinninger	RT	6'5, 299	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8081	0	0
Isaiah Trevino	OL	6'5, 357	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8414
Donnie Greene	OL	6'2, 283	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8289
Ryan Popolizio	OL	6'6, 310	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7900
Shane Gama	OL	6'4, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7533
Christian Cronk	OL	6'5, 290	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059
Quireo Woodley	OL	6'2, 282	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8381

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.20	36	IsoPPP+	90.3	99
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.2%	109	Succ. Rt. +	91.3	98
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.5	35	Off. FP+	31.2	36
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.8	102	Redzone S&P+	92.7	101
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.9		ACTUAL	20.0	+3.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	102	101	98	99
RUSHING	117	104	100	102
PASSING	49	94	101	86
Standard Downs		86	90	80
Passing Downs		119	107	119

Q1 Rk	61	1st Down Rk	101
Q2 Rk	85	2nd Down Rk	68
Q3 Rk	121	3rd Down Rk	118
Q4 Rk	82

6. A great pass rush doesn't matter if no one has to pass

DeRuyter took on a lot of underdog coaching roles; he served as defensive coordinator at Ohio (twice), Navy and Air Force before doing significant damage as Texas A&M's coordinator in 2010-11. Everywhere he went, he was able to install a disruptive attack, usually despite outmanned personnel. He knows how to get defenders into the backfield.

To some degree, that remained the case in 2015. Fresno State once again boasted one of the nation's better pass rushes. The Bulldgos ranked 11th in Adj. Sack Rate, thanks mostly to two guys: end Claudell Louis and outside linebacker Ejiro Ederaine. The two combined for 14 sacks while a few other linebackers pitched in two or three each.

The problem was that this was the only thing the defense did well. Fresno State had no disruptive presence against the run -- 113th in stuff rate, 114th in power success rate -- and if the quarterback didn't get sacked, he was almost assured of finding an open receiver.

Quite a few opponents had lovely passing days against Fresno State -- Ole Miss, San Jose State, San Diego State, Utah State, Air Force, Nevada and BYU all recorded a passer rating of at least 160 (SJSU hit 222) -- but most didn't feel the need to throw at all. They just ran and ran and ran and ran. Opponents ran 69 percent of the time on standard downs (fifth-most in the country) and 40 percent on passing downs (12th). Part of this could be because opponents were usually leading, but since these numbers filter out garbage time, that only explains so much.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	89.9	3.32	3.56	40.6%	77.6%	15.3%	140.2	7.1%	10.2%
Rank	107	119	100	90	114	113	11	12	20

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Todd Hunt	DE					12	37.5	5.2%	4.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Claudell Louis	DE					12	35.5	4.9%	6.5	5.0	0	1	0	0
Nathan Madsen	NG	6'4, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7633	11	14.5	2.0%	3.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Tyler Puccio	NG	6'1, 271	So.	NR	NR	10	9.5	1.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kyle Hendrickson	DE	6'4, 266	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7856	12	7.5	1.0%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Nick Kristofors	DE	6'3, 268	Sr.	NR	NR	12	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Steele	NG	6'0, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8194	8	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Mason Bradley	DE	6'3, 260	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793
Austin Vaimili	DE	6'5, 265	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8117
Malik Forrester	NG	6'1, 315	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859
Patrick Belony	NG	6'2, 309	So.	3 stars (5.5)	NR
Elijah Piper	NG	6'3, 308	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ejiro Ederaine	OLB					12	76.5	10.6%	16.5	9.0	2	2	1	0
Jeff Camilli	ILB	6'2, 255	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7993	11	55.5	7.7%	1.0	0.0	2	2	0	0
Kyrie Wilson	ILB					11	55.0	7.6%	3.0	0.0	0	0	2	0
James Bailey	OLB	6'1, 202	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8202	12	39.5	5.5%	2.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Nela Otukolo	ILB	5'11, 234	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8187	8	20.5	2.8%	3.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Hughes	OLB	6'3, 223	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	8	20.5	2.8%	4.0	3.0	0	0	0	1
Tobenna Okeke	OLB	6'2, 237	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7819	9	17.5	2.4%	3.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Robert Stanley	ILB	6'2, 234	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8056	9	15.5	2.2%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
George Helmuth	ILB	6'1, 221	So.	NR	NR	12	14.0	1.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justin Green	OLB	6'4, 201	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926	10	13.0	1.8%	4.0	3.0	0	0	1	0
Kyrian Obidiegwu	OLB					12	3.5	0.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Stephen Van Hook	OLB	6'1, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8184
Trent Soechting	OLB	6'3, 207	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7900
Lukas McKenzie	OLB	6'1, 184	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115
Jeffrey Allison	ILB	6'0, 260	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8007
Tainoa Foster	OLB	6'2, 192	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893

7. Losing the wrong people

To inject life into the defense, DeRuyter brought in a seasoned hand. Lorenzo Ward spent seven seasons on Steve Spurrier's staff at South Carolina, and when he had attacking pieces up front, he did a pretty good job of deploying them. (Those pieces disappeared after 2013.)

Improvement will be tricky. A front seven that was unintentionally passive must now replace all three players who logged more than four tackles for loss each.

But there is at least potential among last year's backup linebackers and an influx of JUCO transfers. DeRuyter signed four JUCOs here -- three linemen (including three-star end Austin Vaimili) and a linebacker -- along with three-star freshmen Elijah Piper (nose guard), Lukas McKenzie (OLB) and Jeffrey Allison (ILB).

Combined with sophomore OLB James Bailey and veteran backups like Tobenna Okeke (3.5 TFLs last year) and Brandon Hughes (four), maybe there's enough play-making potential for a bit of a rebound.

There BETTER be, because with two new starting safeties, the back four might be fragile.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tyquwan Glass	CB	5'11, 185	Sr.	NR	NR	12	55.0	7.6%	1.5	0	4	6	0	0
Shannon Edwards	FS					10	42.5	5.9%	1	1	1	0	0	0
Jamal Ellis	CB	5'10, 179	Sr.	NR	0.7000	12	40.0	5.6%	4.5	0	0	8	0	1
Charles Washington	SS					11	35.5	4.9%	1	1	0	6	0	0
Dalen Jones	S	6'1, 201	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8407	12	17.5	2.4%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Stratton Brown	SS	6'2, 196	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7819	11	15.5	2.2%	0.5	0	0	0	2	0
DeShawn Potts	FS	6'0, 190	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7633	8	14.5	2.0%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Anthoula Kelly	DB	5'10, 192	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719	9	13.0	1.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alan Wright	S	6'0, 186	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059	12	10.0	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Malcolm Washington	CB	6'2, 179	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	12	7.0	1.0%	0	0	0	4	0	0
Mike Bell	DB	6'2, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8482
Jalen Smith	DB	5'11, 181	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7916
Juju Hughes	DB	5'10, 172	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8019
Jaron Bryant	S	6'1, 176	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7959

8. Stats give mixed signals in the secondary

In seniors Tyquwan Glass and Jamal Ellis, Fresno State boasts two veteran cornerbacks who have proven they can make plays. The duo combined for six tackles for loss, four interceptions and 14 break-ups last year. But knowing what we know about the Bulldogs' pass defense -- that, despite a strong pass rush and these aggressive corners, they still got burned a lot -- that tells us that either safety was a weakness, that the corners gave up as many plays as they made, or both.

In that sense, it might not be the end of the world that starting safeties Shannon Edwards and Charles Washington are gone. Neither was effective as a ball hawk. Still, that doesn't mean the replacements are any better. The hope has to be that a sophomore like DeShawn Potts is ready, and that with a sustained starting role, former star recruit Dalen Jones is ready to break out.

DeRuyter has been in charge of so many good defenses that it's surprising when he isn't. Still, Fresno has ranked below 80th in Def. S&P+ for three straight years, and there's enough turnover to make you wonder how much improvement is possible in 2016.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Garrett Swanson			67	42.2	3	27	20	70.1%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Garrett Swanson			54	61.8	25	1	46.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Kody Kroening	5'10, 150	Jr.	31-33	5-7	71.4%	1-1	100.0%
Jimmy Camacho	5'10, 160	Jr.	0-0	1-2	50.0%	1-2	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Da'Mari Scott	KR	6'0, 211	Sr.	26	22.3	0
Jamire Jordan	KR	5'10, 168	So.	16	19.7	0
Da'Mari Scott	PR	6'0, 211	Sr.	5	6.4	0
Tyquwan Glass	PR	5'11, 185	Sr.	4	18.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	76
Field Goal Efficiency	89
Punt Return Success Rate	3
Kick Return Success Rate	101
Punt Success Rate	40
Kickoff Success Rate	28

9. Losing two good legs at once

Garrett Swanson was instrumental in Fresno State posting top-40 efficiency ratings in both punts and kickoffs. His loss is a double blow of sorts. The return of place-kicker Kody Kroening and return man Da'Mari Scott assures some continuity, but without Swanson, the Bulldogs would have ranked a lot worse than 76th in Special Teams S&P+.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	at Nebraska	26	-20.0	12%
10-Sep	Sacramento State	NR	28.3	95%
17-Sep	at Toledo	58	-12.1	24%
24-Sep	Tulsa	93	3.5	58%
1-Oct	at UNLV	114	4.1	59%
8-Oct	at Nevada	91	-4.2	40%
15-Oct	San Diego State	55	-5.5	38%
22-Oct	at Utah State	73	-9.2	30%
29-Oct	Air Force	80	-0.8	48%
5-Nov	at Colorado State	96	-2.1	45%
19-Nov	Hawaii	118	11.9	76%
26-Nov	San Jose State	92	3.4	58%
Projected wins: 5.8

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-8.8% (77)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	72 / 78
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-2 / -2.3
2015 TO Luck/Game	+0.1
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	76% (89%, 62%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	4.3 (-1.3)

10. So many tossups

Because experience is more valuable in the passing game than the running game, Fresno's experience numbers are solid. Combined with California recruiting, the S&P+ projections are kind to the Bulldogs, projecting a slight jump after back-to-back No. 100 rankings. And if quarterback is no longer a liability, a bigger jump is possible.

As with the schedule of so many teams in the Mountain West, a little jump could go a long way. Fresno State is given between a 38 and 59 percent chance of winning in seven games, with two likely wins and three likely losses. That's a blank canvas, and it could result in 4-8 or 8-4 with just a few shifts.